Tyler Wright has been the Edmonton Oilers director of amateur scouting for four drafts now, 19 selections in all. Just one player (Dylan Holloway) has NHL games on his resume, but that will change in the years to come. Those 19 picks break down as two goalies, four defensemen and 13 forwards. Wright has chosen one player in the top 20, another between 21-30 and one more between 31-40. Three total picks in the top 40, followed by three more between 41-100, and three additional picks between 101-150. Considering all of these things, how well is Wright doing?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
WRIGHT’S FORWARDS
These are all the forwards drafted, using Pick224.com information to add nuance to each player’s 2022-23 season.
Who is the most impressive player in the group? My answer is Dylan Holloway, his AHL offense showing he can in fact produce enough to be considered for a top-six role in the NHL. When that comes, we don’t know.
I would add Xavier Bourgautl, Reid Schaefer, Matvey Petrov and Maxim Berezkin as players who have a chance to play in the heart of an NHL game someday. Credit for using the early picks (Holloway, Bourgault, Schaefer) to procure real talent, but for me the big story of Wright’s drafting style (forwards) are Petrov and Berezkin. Lachance has lachance and I have to say Tyler Tullio has the look of a guy who is going to force his way into the conversation.
Others who are not pushing but have enough skill to get into the conversation? Carter Savoie, Matt Copponi.
Bottom line: Based on what we know today, Wright has done a good job despite drafting from the depths.
WRIGHT’S DEFENSEMEN
Wright and his staff should draft more defensemen. They appear to have a knack for it.
Max Wanner posted an exceptional season, with very little fanfare. Edmonton signed him early, very early considering he was chosen in the seventh round of the pandemic draft. When I wrote about him in June, asked a WHL scout for his input (here) and was surprised by his words. The Oilers have one here. Oilers’ WHL scouts continue to deliver quality.
Nikita Yevseyev may never play in North America. The last Russian drafted out of Russia by Edmonton who played more than 200 NHL games? Anatoli Semenov, 1989. He was 27. If Yevseyev does make it to the AHL and then NHL, Oilers fans will be getting a solid young defenseman who has a lot of his worth tied up on the defensive side.
Beau Akey is a mobile defenseman who brings plenty of offensive potential. In my recent look at him for The Athletic I posted a video from Mitchell Brown and some math that is encouraging but we’re going to have to wait and see how things turn out. It’s my opinion he is the best defenseman in the system, but Wanner and Yevseyev could have something to say about it.
In my recent top 20 prospects ranking, six of the top-10 prospects are Wright’s distant bells. Edmonton owns the playing rights to just one first-round selection I consider a prospect (Holloway has graduated, Schaefer was traded) and there are four men (Petrov, Akey, Berezkin, Wanner) who are strong candidates for the No. 2 spot (currently occupied by Raphael Lavoie).
Wright and his team have done a fine job with the draft picks used in his four seasons here. We have to wait five years, and it’s my belief Bob Green did an excellent job in the role and is no doubt having a major impact in his current role.
It doesn’t matter really who gets the credit, but with the winds of change possibly in the air, important to trumpet what is working inside the Oilers organization. Amateur procurement is currently delivering with the force of a nine pound hammer.
On Schaefer
I really love his quick release. It’s a goal scorers quickness.
I like his size.
It’s his first couple of steps and his side to side agility that are a question mark for me as to if he’ll make it. He’s got years to work on it. If he can improve I think he’ll score goals.
Interesting to me is that he was used both by Seattle and Team Canada at the World Jr’s as a Penalty Killer. Speaks to hockey sense you’d think.
We see 66%(!) EV on ice GF% and we go, “nice, best in class” then we see 71% off ice EVGF% and we say, “oh”. What a stacked team that was.
In his draft season his #’s were:
63-32 66.3% ON
126-82 60.6% OFF
Todd Woodcroft was fired as head coach of Vermont and it seems not for normal coaching reasons but for not acting in accordance with the Equal Opportunity and Affirmative Action requirements- something about inappropriate texting of a student.
https://twitter.com/worldhockeyrpt/status/1681414880199573505/photo/1
Of course, the connection to the Oilers is multi-fold – Jay’s brother and the (former) coach of Luca Munzerburger (and Joel Maatta).
A little more here (3 tweets from Katie Strang) including a response from T. Woodcroft’s lawyer (they don’t agree with UVM’s process or decision).
https://twitter.com/KatieJStrang/status/1681417063737196544
More.
https://oilersnation.com/news/todd-woodcroft-brother-of-edmonton-oilers-head-coach-fired-from-university-of-vermont-mens-hockey-team-following-inappropriate-text-messages-with-student
I guess the details will eventually make their way into the public domain but I have to admit that I find these ambiguous announcements annoying – especially when they involve public figures.
His reputation has been destroyed without any idea of what he did to deserve it. And maybe he did deserve it but he takes the hit regardless of details and, of course, DEI investigations have been a mixed bag at best.
Yeah, it’s an interesting world we live in.
The only things certain are that his reputation and career have been damaged (and as you say, perhaps fairly, perhaps not).
Not that its here nor there but so was Mike Babcock’s repuation and, in fact, its still very damaged but he just signed a massive contract to get back in the NHL (6 X $6.25MM) – it seems a bad reputation will not be prohibitive of an NHL coaching career (although, if it stops this coach from getting the chance to prove he’s good enough, or to develop….).
https://www.puckdoku.com/
I hate this game – I play it every day but I’m awful at it.
Haha, when in doubt; Mike Sillinger. Or maybe a couple former Oiler greats: Michel Petit or Jim Dowd?
Haha I also like Ray Whitney or Brad Boyes as other default guesses.
Someone should track how often Sillinger is a correct answer
Honourable mention, Lee Stempniak.
To the talk yesterday about depleted organization depth, here are the number of prospects each team in the league had on Wheeler’s top 50 prospect list that was posted earlier.
Teams are ranked by where they finished last season (and putting playoff teams in the top 16):
BOS – 0
CAR – 1
NJD – 3 (and 2 in the top 10)
TOR – 0
VGK – 0
EDM – 1
COL – 0
DAL – 1
NYR – 2
LAK – 1
MIN – 3
SEA – 2
TBL – 0
WPG – 3 (though all after #44)
NYI – 0
FLA – 0
—
CGY – 1
NSH – 1
PIT – 1
BUF – 3
OTT – 0
VAN – 0
STL – 2
DET – 3
WSH – 2
PHI – 2
ARI – 2
MTL – 2
SJS – 2
CHI – 5
CBJ – 4
ANA – 3
The Devils are in a great spot, plus their NHL team is young. But a lot of ‘0’ and ‘1’ among the rest of the playoff teams. The only non-playoff teams with 0 top 50 prospects were Ottawa and Vancouver.
Generally though the number of prospects is roughly inversely proportional to standings finish (clearly with some exceptions).
The top 16 teams have 17/50 best prospects (basically 1 per team).
The bottom 16 teams have 33/50 (roughly 2 per team).
Or another way:
The top 10 had 9/50
The middle 12 had 14/50
The bottom 10 had 27/50
So the bottom 10 teams in the league had more than half of all top prospects (close to 3 per team), while the rest had only about 1 per team. I guess the most of the mushy middle is still trying to go for it as well. Whatever the reason, they’re hardly doing better prospect-wise than the top teams.
Interesting thanks. Depth is prospects and quality draft picks. Many top teams have a lot of 1st and 2nd round picks. Some teams have neither and are the ones in future trouble
I am skeptical about it being seen by a team that you should make deadline acquisitions. If there is a significant injury yes. Otherwise I would only spend good assets on a player that could make a significant difference
Depth should be added now and the roster balanced because it’s cheaper. If luck says you’re healthy come playoffs run with your guys. Depth is there and has been playing the system and hopefully given a role and TOI
Interesting take on deadline adds. It makes sense, but are there any teams that don’t spend to add when they’re in a position to contend?
I’m not sure there are, and certainly all the teams you like to reference as ‘doing it better’ are making deadline adds regularly.
For sure though, you want to get your house in order to the extent you can in the off season.
I think the cap makes it difficult to ice a ‘best team’ for the season’s duration compared to picking up players at the TD for a smaller cap hit. Draft picks have become a proxy for cap space.
Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Just like draft picks.
Sure, but because of this:
I don’t think any team plans to leave an important roster issue to solve at the deadline.
For sure those issues do often get addressed at the deadline though, partly due to fewer cap constraints and partly due to the urgency being higher.
Agreed they don’t plan it but sometimes they make bets that don’t work out.
Kulak last season as 2LD. Rookies that show promise but aren’t quite ready is another situation that sends GM’s shopping.
Overpays are the norm and work towards the league’s mandate to pursue parity over excellence.
Yes, that’s true. And I guess the offseason bets they make are often just hopes that things will work out. Which would include developmental decisions that have a chance to pay off in the short term, but that also have long term benefits.
I’ve never thought of it that way before, but I like it.
How good will Bedard be is an interesting question.
We just watched McDavid develop. After his first year and a half of forcing experienced #1 defensemen to actually turn and skate forward to gain speed, then pivot to backwards skating facing the puck carrier (as in back in pee-wee) we seen McDavid actually have to slow down. Broken clavicle and broken knee, McDavid dialed it back a gear to provide some longevity to his career.
He adapted. Improved face offs, improved scoring, improved defensively, improved physically, took a little risk out of his game.
Draisaitl did it differently. He had to get faster, better skating. Even though he still likes to slow things down until his play opens up.
Bedard is smaller. His incredible shooting skills will be shut down by NHL skaters by taking away space. It will be interesting to watch how he adapts.
Not to deliver kiss of death, but this Connor seems surest thing since McD. Very much looking forward to how he adapts and evolves.
See, and I think he’s going to turn out to be a useful and productive NHL player, but not the game breaker like everyone’s expecting. I know he’s going to improve his skating speed, but he’s coming from a long way back and even getting to league average is going to be quite a feat. His biggest attribute is his shot, and in the WHL he could find the soft areas to get it off. Good skating teams, even at the WHL level, are able to neutralize him at even strength.
While McDavid can challenge and beat (multiple) players one on one in open ice, Bedard doesn’t have that ability, even at the WHL level. He’s going to need a setup man, linemates that can do puck retrieval and send him passes in prime scoring areas. Most of his success, at least at the beginning of his career, is going to be found on the PP.
I get that the math says “Best prospect since McDavid and the NHLe is virtually identical”, but his style of play is going to have a hard time finding success in the NHL.
I remember watching Alexei Miknov’s first NHL game vs Phoenix and really liking how big he was but that he just couldn’t skate. They only played him 4:21 that game and it was pretty evident he’d go home because they weren’t going to play him enough. I’ve liked a number of our Russian picks but I feel that it’s tough to develop them as you have to bring them over at exactly the right time where they can play enough to want to stay. Konovalov asking out after 17 games, Paigan after 12, Yakimov played a season and a half but never in a feature role. Slepyshev was the best of all of them but he got 8 seconds of power play time a game and left after being sent down all three years he was here. I think we have some good prospects there but they’ll need to be NHL ready or close if we want to bring them here and keep them.
Top 50 NHL prospects.
https://theathletic.com/4665381/2023/07/18/nhl-top-prospects-rankings-connor-bedard/?source=user_shared_article
Wright’s stock falling from #1 to #14 has to be the headline, no?
Yeah…I think so but it’s also a function of how strong the 23 draft class was.
And coming in just under the wire…#49 Dylan Holloway!
I like the write up, love the layer. Dylans opportunity is here and now. Hes got enough skill and will develop into the full package. Big year for Holloway.
Looks like Devils have a couple of top Dmen coming along.
The Devils may soon be employing 4 #1 calibre D.
Scary.
Who’s the 4th?
Quinn Hughes.
Not Scary, just a strength for an individual club. With parity all teams will have strengths. Whoever manages to balance out their strengths, minimize weaknesses tends to go the furthest. They look to have some good d coming along, time will tell.
Bourgault gets an honorable mention.
Reid Schaefer does not get a mention, though Nashville have 3 others in the “honorable mention” category
Al I definitely miss your show in the morning. My favourite part over the years was always the beginning when you usually addressed a loss and went straight to the fatal wound. Like “folks the Nikita Nikitin and Mark Fayne pair went -3 against the Thorton, Pavelski line. In the first period.”
Maybe someday you can have a new podcast reading comments on the Lowetide blog.
I’d like to talk about Berezkin and Yeseyev but I just don’t know if we’ll ever see them…….
I’ve been reading LT talk about Berezkin’s potential for a while now and I don’t think the season that Yeseyev had in the KHL as a teenager gets nearly enough talk – just the minutes he was playing in the KHL as a teenage d-man is impressive let alone actually producing a bit, etc.
I’d love to see these guys ink ELCs at some point but I have absolutely no idea. Does the org?
Ha – this paragraph speaks to ALOT of what I was going to speak to from reading the opening paragraph of the blog:
1) The Reid Schaeffer pick was not universally accepted as a good pick but, from accounts, he was a MUST HAVE for Nashville in the Ekhlom trade – they valued him and the Oilers got real value from that pick
2) I was going to say that the Petrov pick has the potential to just sky-rocket Wright’s drafting record. If that guy is able to translate his skills to the pro and NHL level, he has a chance to be a real impact player. He may never make it or he may be a star – drafted in the sixth round
3) Shane LaChance, as LT mentions, has a chance. I think he will be a long term project but there is something about a kid with that frame that can score. Miles to go and chances are he’s never a “real prospect” but he’s my dark-horse to make an impact, in 3-4 years from now.
4) I’ve also got my eyes on Max Wanner – lets not forget how good he looked in Penticton last summer. He’ll play some exhibition games as he turns pro. With Kesselring out of the org, he’s become more important.
Also reminds me of Savoie.
Ya, I can see that from a talent/shot perspective.
I think Petrov has like 5 inches on Savoie and that is something. I also think he might be a better skater and passer but I do like the comparison in the ceiling if it translates.
At the same time, I do see Petrov’s ceiling as higher – I can see him as a true top line winger, and a star, if it all comes together – unlikely but I think he has a higher ceiling.
The Ekholm trade is a curious one.
On the one hand, he was like manna from heaven for the Oilers. He was an absolutely perfect fit for the hole at 2LD. He’s probably the best left shot d on the team. Probably even the best acquisition at the last trade deadline.
On the other hand, he was 33 years old at the time he was acquired (with 3 additional years of term at a $6m cap hit).
Can anyone think of the last time a 33 year old hockey player brought back a return package including a 1st round pick along with a former first?
32 year old Ryan O’Reilly was traded for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 2 AHL players for 13 Regular season and 11 playoff games. He then signed for 4.5M x 4 years somewhere else.
The O’Reilly trade was a crazy one, indeed. It also involved Noel Acciari and salary retention. ROR had just turned 32.
St Louis retained 50% and Minnesota another 25%.
The Leafs spent a fortune on the rental, but they got a lot of salary retention. Still, I’m not defending their trade.
28 year old Ryan Graves signed a 6 year $4.5 million AAV contract with Pittsburgh.
His acquisition cost was zero.
The cost of Claude Giroux+ for FLA at the TDL two years ago was Owen Tippett, a 1st & 3rd.
I think Grioux would be the most recent one, last deadline. At age 34 and a pure rental Florida paid a 1st, 3rd and Owen Tippett. Giroux played 28 total games for Florida.
Before that, Rick Nash was acquired by Boston at age 33 (2018) for a 1st, Ryan Spooner (26 at the time and scoring at a 50 point pace), Ryan Lindgren (2nd round pick, 20 at the time, who’s become a Ranger regular) and a couple of other minor pieces. He was also a pure rental (23 total games as a Bruin) and retired after the season.
Colorado paid a similar price for 1 year of Kuemper (though only 31 at the time)
And not paying attention to age, that kind of price is paid for rentals at the deadline with some regularity:
-Vegas paid 1st, 2nd, 3rd for Tatar.
-CBJ paid 1st + 1st for Duchene in 2019 (with some prospects who never amounted to anything going either way)
-ARI of all teams rented Taylor Hall for a 1st, 3rd, Kevin Bahl, Nick Merkley and another guy
-TBay paid a 1st, 3rd, 4th for David Savard.
-Florida paid a 1st and 4th for Ben Chariot.
-NYR paid a 1st, 2nd, 5th (6th going the other way) for Copp.
-Boston paid a 1st and 4th for Bertuzzi.
Alright, I’ll stop now.
The pure rental part is where comparing these deals hinges, imo.
The term is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, you could argue that the Oilers got more value because their trade had term on it.
With Ekholms, on the books for 33/34, 34/35, and 35/36 year-old seasons, the potential of the contract being a significant drag on the cap at some point is also apparent.
Exactly so.
Ekholm turned 33 on May 24th, so you’re counting on runs to at least the conference final every year to get to the / years. Hopefully you’re right.
But yes, it is possible that at ages 33, 34 or 35 Ekholm will shift from positive to negative value. I think we can at least agree he’s pretty significant positive value today.
If you’d prefer to spend similar assets for 30-odd games of a deadline rental vs betting on Ekholm being a net positive over 3 1/4 seasons though, well fill your boots.
Bob Green? advocated the trade for Griffin Reinhart. Definite ayesayer with #4 pick in 2016, Jesse Puljajarvi. How does he still have a job?
Green also has many positives on his resume. Puljujarvi was the right choice. The Reinhart involvement is on his resume for sure. I think he’s done a fine job overall since arriving in Edmonton.
ok; I’ll agree to disagree
Everyone had JP as #3 on their lists. Mckeen’s gave the Oilers an A for the 2016 draft. They just mishandled JP’s development and were unlucky with Benson being injured in his draft +1 year. It looks bad because of Tkachuk/Debincat but the Oilers made solid bets that didn’t pan out and other teams around them did too.
I would argue that the scouts got it wrong with JP. He wasn’t the third best prospect and his development had little bearing on the player he is today. Same as Yakupov. Same as Benson. Even the best scouts can be wrong.
I agree. It’s a crap shoot yes. An issue with the closed community that the NHL is that there is very little creative thinking and innovation. Old tropes abound and it seems managers are overly conservative and follow the herd. Probably because it ensures future employment- outliers would have a harder time getting another gig and they all change chairs pretty frequently
Why I wish for different things is that the greatest team in NHL history wasn’t built and run like that. It wouldn’t bother me if our Oilers went back there, with ideas and of course responsibly
LT, if you think JP was the correct choice at #4, do you believe that Columbus made the wrong choice by taking Dubois at #3, going against the consensus?
JP was #3 on every list, was the MVP at the world juniors, and was in the conversation for the #1 pick. Dubois was traded by the team that drafted him four years later. Did the pick work out better? Yes but it was widely considered a mistake at the time. It’s kind of like dumping all of your money in the lottery. It’s a mistake unless you win but you had no way of knowing ahead of time you would win. You can do the wrong thing and still win.
Was he really in the conversation for #1OV? If I recall, Matthews was always the top prospect in 2016. There was some debate between Laine and JP at pick #2, no question. But that doesn’t mean the scouts were correct in their assessment. In fact, they got it wrong for both Finns because Tkachuk is way better than both of them. So is it truly the best idea to follow the consensus? Maybe over a larger sample size the answer is yes but that is small consolation for the teams that don’t get the best player at the higher draft position.
No. I have Dubios at No. 4 overall. I think the Oilers would have been justified taking any of JP, PLD, Tkachuk or Sergachev, as I have them ranked. I don’t think it’s reasonable to suggest (with hindsight) it was the wrong choice. I do think there are lessons to be learned but that’s post-draft.
https://lowetide.ca/2016/06/24/draft-post-17-here-comes-the-sun/
Okay. I’ve read your thread.
Here’s what I wrote at the time:
Columbus’ need was at center. Jenner Wennberg and Dubinsky with nothing promising on the farm. They had traded Johansen in January for Seth Jones. After Matthews and Dubois the next center drafted in 2016 was Tyson Jost.
Even though Dubois is listed as a winger on NHL.com and Hockeydb.com, he has played center most of his career. While the mantra is best player available, that is subjective, especially comparing across leagues, and if the ranking is close, need can tip the scales.
If it wasn’t for that pesky Finn the Oilers I think draft Sergachev.
I’ll never forget how they interviewed Bob Green after picking Griffin, and Green mentioned that they hadn’t seen him play since his junior days. At that moment it struck me how truly utterly incompetent Oilers scouting was at the time to draft a player solely because you liked him in junior, but apparently ignored his most current two years playing in the AHL and NHL. It’s obvious the Oilers had blinders on for Griffin and it blew up in their faces.
He was only 1 year removed from junior, but yeah.
Same. Me: Excuse Me?
That was absolutely a red flag, but one cannot ignore the overall impact Green has had on drafting since arrival. What was abysmal before went to competent or better. The selections they did make in 2015 (after 1OV, of course) were sensational.
very true. they nailed the late rounds.
oh, i guess the first round as well…
Was it Green who also spoke about not being able to sleep because he was so excited that Benson was still on the board and potentially available to the Oilers with their high second round pick?
Again, a little sign of blinders.
Unless the Oilers had him ranked as a high first rounder – but then again, with that injury history and very limited junior viewings, why would they have him so high on their board?
Benson was the #1 pick in the 2013 WHL draft so the Oilers would have seen a lot of him. Had he not been injured in his draft year, he’d have gone around 10-15. Debrincat or would have been the better pick but Kyrou was generally considered a worse pick and is the best player of the 3.
The Athletic: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
https://theathletic.com/4694536/2023/07/17/oilers-ken-holland-offseason-moves/