We’re in a holding pattern for Oilers news, with Ryan McLeod’s arbitration case a couple of weeks away and Evan Bouchard’s extension some time after the McLeod contract is final. It gives us a chance to contemplate what may come and today, anticipate areas of the roster that may spring a leak this winter.
How a seemingly innocuous transaction could impact the Oilers roster this fall, and why Raphael Lavoie matters. https://t.co/2mpQvFqA7R
DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
A CONVERSATION
This is a boring offseason. Yes. Things could be worse.
How so? Back when the Oilers were winning Stanley, there were always holdouts. Many summer transactions were basically trades forced by economic situations. It was frustrating.
Like what? Well the Oilers traded Andy Moog’s rights for Bill Ranford and Geoff Courtnall at the trade deadline in 1988.
You poor bastard. Then what happened? Oilers won the Stanley that year, but traded Courtnall that summer for Greg Adams.
Let me guess, wrong Greg Adams? Yes! It was more than that, though. The Oilers would trade for a player and then trade him before he got to play for them. Gilles Meloche was acquired in May 1985 and traded in September of that year before playing for them. Always liked Meloche, he was a California Golden Seal, probably the best one.
What did Glen Sather get for Meloche? Marty McSorley and the rights to Craig Muni.
Do you have any idea how ridiculous complaining about this is? Well, those holdouts (Moog was a holdout) over money were frustrating. You kind of knew it would eventually come to a bad end.
Yes. Oilers lost every great player after winning five Stanley Cups. Oh, the agony. Well, I was counting Courtnall on the roster moving forward, but he needed a contract and yadda yadda yadda.
So was the complaining then as bad as now? There was no twitter, and the Oilers were winning, but I worked with John Short in many of those years and he fielded some angry calls some nights. It’s human nature, people want more.
What was your favourite moment in those years before Stanley? Probably the 1981-82 season. It’s hard to describe, you already have Gretzky, Kurri, Messier, Anderson, Coffey, Lowe and Moog from the previous year. THEN Coffey blossoms, Charlie Huddy suddenly becomes a big-time player, Grant Fuhr wins the starter’s job in net, Pat Hughes shows how valuable he is, Randy Gregg shows up for a cup of coffee in the playoffs, it seemed to me the team had more good players by the end of that season than any team since the Habs of my youth a decade before.
I bet Glen Sather would handle this team differently than Ken Holland is right now. The world of the NHL is a different place now. Teams place heavy value on every asset, so you’d never see a Courtnall-type player thrown in as a sweetener. Courtnall took some time to develop but he was a quality scorer on the day of that trade.
Slats was great at trades, Holland isn’t great at trades. Sather had a great overall record, but the Miro Satan trade was damaging. People remember only what they wish to, and Slats did make some great deals for sure.
Holland’s best trades? I think it’s difficult to assess in real time, but do believe the deal for Mattias Ekholm was a home run.
He gave up too much! He gave up plenty of future for right now. If Edmonton wins Stanley in the spring, no one says a word.
Well they didn’t and now it’s a risky deal. You can’t view the transaction that way. Edmonton was building for so long, I think people have forgotten the idea of making big trade to push things over the top.
Like? Like the deal for Sergei Samsonov that allowed the Bruins to draft Milan Lucic, that kind of thing.
Wasted pick! No it wasn’t, the Oilers went to G7 SCF in 2006. That was a brilliant deadline by Kevin Lowe.
Holland’s good trades for the Oilers are? Ekholm, Ennis, Kulak, Kostin and I believe Grubbe. I also think the Foegele trade worked out although I didn’t like it at the time. I think getting out from under Milan Lucic held real value as well.
Downbeat trades? Duncan Keith, Andreas Athanasiou, Mike Green,
What about John Marino? Marino wasn’t going to sign in Edmonton. There was a terrific article at The Athletic three years ago about Marino and it was clear he wasn’t signing with the Oilers. You can put that in the negative column, not sure there was anything Holland could do at that time. Perhaps Peter Chiarelli could have gotten it done.
So they traded him for nothing! The draft pick is Shane Lachance. We’ll see. Miles to go.
What if Reid Schaefer or Tanner Molendyk turn into very good NHL players in three years? What if Reid Schaefer or Tanner Molendyk turn into very good NHL players in three years?
Ekholm is a risk. Of course he is, along with Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jack Campbell, Cody Ceci, Zach Hyman and all the rest. Would you rather go back to Ty Rattie and Brandon Manning?
What have the Oilers done well in the Holland tunnel? In the final games before Ken Holland was hired, the top two lines were Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian; Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson. I think adding Hyman, Kane and now Brown represents and upgrade on Kassian, Lucic and Chiasson.
His free-agent signings are too much for too long? Yes, agreed. Between Nuge, Kane, Hyman, Campbell and Ekholm and Kulak, all are likely to erode and at least a couple will become an albatross.
What else? Drafting is good, trading too many picks. Pro scouting much better now with Brad Holland at the helm.
Are you confident in Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg and Raphael Lavoie helping the Oilers? Yes. I’m not sure where they will play is all.
Give me a range. Holloway could be 3LW, 4C, 3RW and maybe maybe maybe get some time on the top two lines when injuries hit or the road gets weary for one of Brown, Kane, Nuge or Hyman.
Broberg’s range? Anywhere from No. 2 RHD to 7D I expect. I like him and believe he’ll push his way up the depth chart successfully.
And Lavoie? Part-time duty, kind of like Holloway last year. I do think Holloway’s offense is enough of a question mark that it wouldn’t be impossible for Jay Woodcroft to try Lavoie in more of a feature role if Holloway fails some auditions early in the year.
Holloway is more dynamic, can carry the puck. Lavoie is a finisher. There’s a need. And he’s RH.
1. Any chance Barrie returns at the deadline? Move Broberg to LD, trade Kulak, etc.?
2. Why was the pro scouting so bad for so long?
3. I don’t understand why the Oilers (and any Canadian NHL team, for that matter) don’t sink a ton of small dollars into development for their prospects over the summer. Force feed the kids good food, 10 hours of sleep per day, the best skating coaches out there on the sheets of ice the organization own, hit the weight room after, with trips to the lake every weekend for esprit de corps.
jp
July 19, 2023 9:08 pm
A bit more on the Todd Woodcroft stuff over at ON.
There has never been a time when I didn’t think the Keith trade was a great trade. Just one of those ones where people will have to agree to disagree I guess.
On The Oil Stream, @TomGazzola mentions that he spoke to someone in the #Oilers org and was told to expect things to “go the distance” re McLeod/Bouchard negotiations. Also says EDM has put out feelers on a couple of UFAs, but that they’re smaller names like Caggiula & Pederson.
I’ve thought for some time that Holland should have a backup plan to give Foegele away for basically free in order to accommodate the McLeod/Bouchard signings.
Given how little cap room exists league wide and how many players are still without contracts that could be more difficult than it would have been in June when I thought it should have been done.
Holland has said he has a good sense of what the two contract will come in at and “has money put away.
Given arbitrators are only allowed to look at stats, and certain stats, and only allowed to use comparables to certain types of contract, they will have a very good idea of the “worst case scenario” in arb.
I don’t think we are talking about a big risk that its going over $2.5MM or anything.
For a 21 player roster, I think there is apx $6.375 to sign those two ($100K less if if Lavoie is on the roster over a league min 12F).
flyfish1168
July 19, 2023 4:22 pm
My favourite move by Glen was signing Reijo Ruotsalainen. Instrumental in winning 2 SC for us
Sather traded for Reijo twice that’s how much he liked him. He sure was a smooth skater he also had a cannon for a shot. Risto Siltanen was another Finn that could blast it. Sather scored in heavy with the Kurri connection we had tremendous output from The Land of a Thousand Lakes. Forty years later we draft a huge dominating raw Finn specimen that dominated the World Juniors and we get completely shafted.
Bulging Twine
July 19, 2023 4:20 pm
Ottawa and their Assistant GM parted ways today
Paving the way for Staios to join his former boss and new Sens owner maybe.
There is no panic or handwringing for me but simply pointing out that the Oilers could be in a position at a point in the season where they can fit a league min player on to the roster and not one at close to $875K.
Its probably not likely but its not out of the realm of possibility and simply pointing out the extra $100K on the cap could be a disservice to the player – not likely but could.
I am far from panicked – if they don’t have cap room for Lavoie (which is the potential issue I bring up), it is what it is.
I’m not all that concerned as (1) I think he’ll slide through waivers and (2) as I’ve stated, we don’t know if he’s an NHL player right now.
I post about it so many times as its come up as a topic (and, no, not by me), multiple times a day since he signed and I provide my opinion – there is a chance the contract hurts his ability to be on the roster – I’m hardly panicked, distressed or worried.
I think you are as well, even with you writing about the extra $100K (and its possible impact) at The Athletic today – similar to me, one of many times you’ve mentioned it over the last week.
I disagree in years past there was all kinds of trades, signings and rumours. Taylor Hall got traded June 29 and the discussion lasted not months but years and years. First time in along time this team is set. After pulling for Lavoie since he was drafted who wants to see him traded or claimed of waivers.
My only point to this initial comment was that an AHL player pushing to make the team while asking for too much and getting a bit too much and he might not even make the team on merit (making that overpay moot) could be considered poor asset management or poor negation from the player but if it’s the top catastrophe of the summer then this team has surely turned a massive corner.
Actually wrote this after watching Bruce explain it exceptionally well on COH and only put “handwringing” in quotations as Bruce wasn’t “handwringing” at all, but others have been. But the use of quotations seems to have been interpreted as a nod to OP specifically though it wasn’t “intended”.
It would seem Reja confirms your point if he is making a comparison of the level of the discussion on Lavoie to that of the Taylor Hall trade.
I do think it is worth mentioning that the deal Lavoie signed was his qualifying offer so it is unfair to say he was asking for too much or that it is an overpay. He was fully entitled to his QO as the amount for the offer for RFA’s is determined basically the day the player signs their ELC. If the Oilers wanted to keep his rights, they have to make this offer.
No one knows what the negotiations were between Lavoie and Holland from when he received the offer and when he signed it, but if he didn’t sign it prior to it expiring the other day, he would have been at Holland’s mercy for whatever his contract would have been.
Based on Lavoie’s comments in his interview with Jason Gregor, it almost seems like him being left with a $70,000 AHL salary will be a huge motivator for him to do what it takes to get into and stay in the NHL.
Owner Terry Pegula is taking on the role of president of the Buffalo Bills while top executive Ron Raccuia is leaving the team. The Bills announced the front office restructuring on Wednesday afternoon, describing Raccuia’s departure as “parting ways.”
It seems to me that long after Lowe moved out of hockey operations you remained skeptical of his role and involvement. And when you are the owner even casual remarks somehow end up influencing the decisions of employees.
But my remark about feeling sorry for the fans is just that. They have suffered for a long time and this decision probably doesn’t make them feel any better.
An owner can make those remarks no matter the structure of the team.
Acquilini has been doing it in Vancouver for a long time.
My issues with Lowe still being involved, and he was appearing at the draft, was that he came directly from the hockey side after a protracted period of abject failure.
Acquilini has been doing it in Vancouver for a long time.
===========
Being around as an active member of management just makes it that much worse.
Yes, I know that was your issue – and there was some merit to the thought although the “protracted period of abject failure” actually made his opinions – should he have expressed them – less impactful.
Ryan Rishaug @TSNRyanRishaug
Big loss for Oilers coaching staff. Video man Jeremy Coupal parting ways with the team. Had a great record on challenges and was clutch in some big moments.
Hope the process is in place to keep his legacy and track record going.
I didn’t realize Coupal had been video coach since 2016. Perhaps we can take that as evidence that it was the process (presumably relatively new) as much as the man that spiked the success rate on challenges.
Brett Howden and Vegas have a pre-arbitration settlement: 2x$1.9M
Mayan Oil
July 19, 2023 1:08 pm
Love these conversations with the antagonist I call GG! I wonder if they have the effect of preempting some of the similar comments in the comments section? Do they have any noticeable effect on the nature of commentators discourse?
Good point, but since you’re mentioning he’ll be handling the toughs:
Via Woodmoney against elites:
DFF 48.8% (Dangerous Fenwick percentage, smarter people than I will correct me if this is not a similar measure to xGF)
FF% 49.8
SF 50%
GF% 43.5
PDO .986
Wrong side of 30, uh oh. I will admit it’s not caved.
Good point, but since you’re mentioning he’ll be handling the toughs:
Via Woodmoney:
DFF 48.8% (Dangerous Fenwick percentage, smarter people than I will correct me if this is not a similar measure to xGF)
FF% 49.8
SF 50%
GF% 43.5
PDO .986
Wrong side of 30, uh oh. I will admit it’s not caved.
So, PLD is making $8.5m and needs to be sheltered and play with elite players to be effective. Meanwhile, Vilardi makes < half as much and is probably just as good (or better) a player as PLD.
Blake with the cunning 3 for 1 that brings in less offense and gives up more defensively. 4D chess while everyone else is playing baseball. Bloody brilliant!
Wait a sec. Did HH Just admit that of ALL the vaunted LA Kings prospects he continues to rave about, only ONE is a potential top 6 forward or top pairing D?
And here I was under the impression they ALL were. Thanks for the correction HH
Magic beans vs established NHL talent. All the defensive heavy lifting to be done by non-Elite defenders aging rapidly.
I’m not even reflexively anti-Kings, they have been an annoyingly tough out even if I believe the Oilers to be far and away a better team.
But sometimes you see a GM making asinine moves. Every single move Blake has made this offseason has made his team worse now and into the future.
As an Oiler fan I love it. It even more amazing to watch Treliving and Blake do it in back to back seasons to nick the competition. Love it. As a hockey fan its amazing to watch a non-Oiler GM shoot himself in both feet.
I quite like Vilardi, I hope he does well in Winnipeg. Heck, I quite like Iafallo as well, he’s someone I’d have liked to see in Edmonton if it was remotely possible cap wise. I’m not convinced LA came out on top in the PLD deal at all.
My (not very) bold prediction is that Montreal fans won’t be all that jealous of LA acquiring PLD by the end of this coming season.
Harpers Hair
July 19, 2023 12:28 pm
Dom breaks down the most improved teams after offseason moves.
$6M is pretty low for his production and TOI. He should fire his agent for $6M AAV given that his comparables are $8.5M+ and the cap is going up. I would be shocked if it is $6M.
He is only RFA for one more season and he has arb rights. No chance will he do a long term deal for $6M like you stated. He is Seattle’s best defenseman and he has all the leverage. Sergachev’s deal looks like his closest comp to me if you are talking a long-term deal. If not, he would be better off to take a one year deal and hit a home run next summer.
New Jersey signs Thomas Nosek. I didn’t see him as a fit in Edmonton, for me Lane Pederson and Pius Suter made more sense. Crickets on Toews, suspect he’s done or signing after the season begins.
Give me a range. Holloway could be 3LW, 4C, 3RW and maybe maybe maybe get some time on the top two lines when injuries hit or the road gets weary for one of Brown, Kane, Nuge or Hyman.
I do think that Holloway could and should push Brown for a top 6 spot but I don’t think it will happen. I think Brown’s career shows he’s generally a middle six guy that can play up in the top 6 but he’s likely a lock to start at 2RW given roster – I think he could be a great 3RW.
Yes, Holloway at 4C could/should be a viable option. He played a bit of C down in Bako but not much – of course, his last season at Wisconsin, he was a full time center and killed it.
In theory, it could work but it requires the coaching staff to commit to continuing to play the bottom six, not necessarily “rolling lines” but ensuring he doesn’t take his depth players out of the game. He has a penchant for shortening the bench way too early in games, in my opinon.
I don’t think Woody can commit to 10 plus 5 on 5 minutes for his 4th line which, for me, puts the kybosh on Holloway at 4C or McLeod at 4C (with Nuge as 3C).
Broberg’s range? Anywhere from No. 2 RHD to 7D I expect. I like him and believe he’ll push his way up the depth chart successfully.
The community has talked at length about Broberg potentially playing the right side in the top 4 – some think it should be with Nurse, others think it should be with Bouch.
In any event, I think most of us will agree that its highly unlikely that Manson starts him there if the d-group is healthy going in to the season.
They will give Ceci the chance to re-establish his former play and will likely ease Broberg in as Kulak’s partner.
The fear, for me, is that they continue to play Deharnais over Broberg to start the season – that’s where we ended in late May. I think that would be a mistake but I’m not the coach and I can see it happening.
I have seen post, but mostly heard verbal spots, about Broberg starting the year in the AHL and I think that’s wild. Stauffer intimated it a month back but, most recently, likely after reading this blog, he’s suggested Broberg at RD in the top 4 – wild swings.
And Lavoie? Part-time duty, kind of like Holloway last year. I do think Holloway’s offense is enough of a question mark that it wouldn’t be impossible for Jay Woodcroft to try Lavoie in more of a feature role if Holloway fails some auditions early in the year.
I’ve got to think that Holloway can impact the NHL game offensively more than Lavoie this season – just from watching them play in the AHL, on the same team. Totally different players, both dynamic in their own right, but that motor and the skating on Holloway….. its intoxicating – here is hoping he takes that next step early.
Ceci’s former play wasn’t good enough to win the Stanley Cup. It is time to take Broberg out of the garage and onto the track, and give him runway to the trade deadline to see if he can do the job. If Broberg can’t then one has to make another “Ekholm” deal at the trade deadline.
Slow playing Broberg in draft + 5 when one is on a Cup hunt is for losers. One needs to get him from “here” to “there” by the trade deadline.
I don’t agree on Ceci – he was very good in 2021/22 and, while the pairing was a bit under water in certain playoff games, his partner could barely skate and they were taking on 50% TOI vs. elites.
We are on the same page with Broberg but I would suspect that Nurse/Ceci with TOI vs. elites reduced by 5-7% due to the Ekholm acquisition, and full health, will do much better.
There is a middle ground slow-playing and moving the player from clear 7D (in the coaches’ minds) to 1RD (off-side).
Agreed completely in regard to slow playing Broberg. As in don’t slow play him.
The Oilers have the luxury of knowing they will make the playoffs and likely be close to top of conference standings. Regular season (fingers crossed) is a foregone conclusion.
Time to get ready for the playoff grind from the first preseason game so give Broberg the needed development time to get ready for the playoffs now.
While many have applauded Holland for the Ekholm trade, they tend to forget the massive haul of assets expended to replace Klefbom at 2LD.
Bruce lays it all out very well.
“Instead, the Oilers’ top four has been a rotating wheel these past three seasons. Nurse has been a constant on the top pairing; meanwhile Holland has traded for no fewer than FOUR guys for 2LD since Klef’s departure. After first determining that a hodgepodge of Kris Russell, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, and Slater Koekkoek weren’t top-four calibre, Holland dealt for rental Dmitry Kulikov at the deadline in 2021. That summer he made a controversial deal for Duncan Keith, then added Brett Kulak at the subsequent deadline. Finally in 2023 came the massive swap that landed Mattias Ekholm for not just the playoff run but for the following three years. Problem solved, right? Now consider that Ekholm is older today than Klefbom will be in 2026”
No assets expended for Russell, Jones, Lagesson, or Koekkoek. Minimal assets expended for Keith and Kulak. Real assets expended for Ekholm but the return was worth it, imo.
cowboy bill
July 19, 2023 9:46 am
They could always go with Holloway & Lavoie taking regular shifts in the bottom 6. After all they will have plenty of veteran support with Ryan,Janmark, Foegele & MacLeod. If they can’t find a 4c they still have Derek Ryan and both Holloway & Lavoie can potentially play the center position.
Foegele-MacLeod-Lavoie
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan
Or
Holloway-MacLeod-Foegele
Janmark-Ryan-Lavoie
Or there could be plenty of other combos. Just might work.
Holloway has experience playing with a one-shot scorer. I also like the idea of two speedy 2-way types with a slower, less than defensively conscious winger, but the lack of experience would be a worry.
Maybe it works at home when matching with 4th lines and select 3rd lines, but I wouldn’t want to take that show on the road….however, both McLeod and Holloway (not much in the NHL) have shown to be play-drivers)
I’m hoping that Brown is a great fit in the top 6. And I also like the Holloway-McLeod-Foegele 3rd line, in theory at least.
But Brown. I think he has a good chance to have an impact similar to Hyman’s (ie – pretty significant).
I’ve mentioned before he scored at a 20-30-50 pace his 3 years in Ottawa. At 5v5 he was among the top 80 forwards in the NHL those years in goals and points.
Brown developed into a fully legitimate top 6 forward (arguably even 1st line) in Ottawa, and I’m excited to see what he can do with the high end linemates he’ll have in Edmonton.
I would prefer Lavoie on LW and Foegle on RW. Foegele seems to be “just as good” on RW and, from watching Lavoie, I think he’s better suited to the left side and that’s where he played all of last season as a Condor.
Holloway was great as a center at Wisconsin (and did play a tiny bit as a Condor and I’d be open to him at 4C but don’t think Woody would be able to commit to using his bottom six given his history, which is a penchant for shortening his bench early and often.
If he can’t commit to 10 plus minutes for that 4th line (which I don’t think he can), I can’t have Holloway there.
I also do think it behooves the org to play Holloway with some established, not past-prime, NHL players – and some skill.
I like this. Although it smells suspiciously “blender” like. Let’s see who’s really under that cowboy hat…
IT’S OLD MAN MCLELLAN!
Redbird62
July 19, 2023 9:39 am
The comment regarding the free agent signings ignore the fact that if the term on any of those contracts could have been made shorter, the AAV would have unquestionably been higher so the cap usage in 23/24 to have all those players on the roster would have been significantly higher leaving less to sign other players.
All of Nuge, Hyman and Kane (when healthy) are playing at a level well above their current cap hit. If a team wants those players on the roster in the near term at the lower AAV it has to give longer term and take the risk on whether or how much their play diminishes in the latter years of the contract.
For example if Nuge plays like a $7-8 million player for 4 seasons and 4 seasons at $4 million value, the Oilers are ahead over the 8 years. The question isn’t will Nuge be worth less than $5 million per season in the latter years of his deal. It is rightly stated as will he deliver $40 million of value over 8 seasons. Both he and Hyman are making very good progress against their totals, while Kane is somewhat shy so far primarily due to injury. Campbell needs to outperform for a season or two to correct the total ledger.
Well, Nuge has delivered about $10M worth of value in year 1, so he only needs to cover $30M over the next 7 years, or about $4.25M annually. I’m going to say right now that he’ll outperform his contract.
And that’s without considering that the cap could be up around $100M by the time his contract is finished. Meaning he’ll be getting the equivalent (in today’s dollars) of $4M.
Nuge has actually played 2 seasons under his current contract and has 6 left (same with Hyman). His 50 points in 63 games in the first season, plus PK work was at least in the range of $5 to $6 million forwards and certainly there based on ppg. Plus he had 14 points in 16 playoff games. This year was the opposite, excellent regular season, but weaker playoff.
jp
July 19, 2023 9:38 am
We’re on day 19 of Free Agency. As LT said, it’s quiet.
Day 19 of FA last season was July 31st (recall the late finish to the season) and from that point on there were only 5 more UFAs who signed deals over $1M with new teams:
Kadri $7M x 7
Stastny $1.5M x 1
Kessel $1.5M x 1
Rodrigues $2.0M x 1
Motte $1.35M x 1
There were 12 others who signed on or after July 31st for $950k or less though (11 of them under $850k).
I guess Tarasenko is this years Kadri (though he may not end up getting term). And maybe Tatar is the Rodrigues. The other 3 from last year are available again this summer, as well as quite a few more.
The top remaining forwards by points scored last year:
Tarasenko, Tatar, Kessel, Parise, Toews, Staal, N. Richie, Bailey, Suter, Brassard, Stastny, Heinen, Motte, Comtois, Grant, Nosek, Ernie, Gregor (there are more I didn’t list).
The top remaining Dmen by TOI/game:
Deangelo, Dumba, S. Benoit, Jones, Bear, Nemeth, Holden, Harrington, Beaulieu, Foote, Edler (that’s actually everyone who played >20 games last season).
Yes, for sure. I’m still hoping Toews decides he wants to continue playing hockey, but we’ll see about that. I would also welcome Suter, Nosek, Grant or Staal if they were willing for that price.
Last week we were discussing Dumba’s possible contract value. Someone threw out $3 million, which I stated was too high, in large part due to the fact that very few UFA’s get that much this far into free agency. (Not to mention the drop-off in his play). I would say now that he gets closer to $1 million than $3 million.
Why would Toronto file for such a low number I wonder? They probably still agree to something before Friday, but isn’t this basically just giving Samsonov a $4.9M award if it does reach arbitration?
In the NHL it’s not an either/or like in baseball. The arbitrator is free to choose any number (although unlikely to go over the high offer or under the low offer). This is just a play by the Maple Leafs to have Samsonov agree to what’s on the table before going to arbitration because he could get as little as 2.4M
Yeah, NHL arbitration is weird. Each side picks a number that scares the other side and then they almost always settle. 2 cases in the last 3 years made it to a hearing. Part of that is the arbitration process is so confrontational that the player and team generally head for a split anyways. Only one player that had a hearing in the last 10 years is still with his original team and that’s Trenin Yakov who went in 2022.
In terms of teams parting ways afterward, I guess in addition to the confrontational aspect, any player+team who go all the way to a hearing have demonstrated they do not see eye to eye. Failure to reach a compromise (contract) is probably a pretty good predictor of future failures in reaching compromise.
Is Samsonov asking for $4.9 million any more genuine? That’s $900,000 more than Oettinger signed for last season, though he didn’t have arb rights. Both sides will have comparable contracts and data that they will present as the basis for their position.
It seems just from memory that whenever these things actually get to an arbitrator all they do is find the midpoint between the two numbers which is just laziness or indifference so I understand why agents and teams do this. I would just prefer the either/or choice.
Toronto is already about $1.7 over the cap even if you eliminate their 13th forward and their 3rd goalie on cap friendly so Treliving still has some work to do.
I think the speculation is that they’ll use the arbitration buyout window to rid themselves of Matt Murray. The buyout would only cost them $687k this year, but then $2M next.
But looking closer, that would still only leave them with $800k for Samsonov (with a 22-man roster), so it looks like you are correct that they will need to make additional moves.
The $4.9M number is certainly inflated, but IMO it’s a fair bit closer to reality than $2.4M. Samsonov was 13th in wins last year, 5th in GAA and 6th in SV%.
Oettinger was signed that deal coming off ELC, and as you mention, no arbitration rights. Both of those things will deflate his salary. Samsonov is 26 and more established, though not all of it good in Washington.
I’d guess he’ll most likely end up with a 2-4 year deal with an AAV in the $4.5M range.
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!
July 19, 2023 9:06 am
The Duncan Keith trade was a clear and obvious win.
I wish Caleb Jones well in his upcoming Swiss League career.
I don’t think there is much of an issue losing what we gave up but with acquiring Keith who made too much money for his ability and having to give anything for a player who obviously wanted to come here. Caleb Jones was on a good trajectory while here and will probably still play a few seasons in a bottom pairing role but isn’t a huge loss. Neither is the 3rd but they both had some value relative to the cap whereas Keith played as well as expected but the money could have been better spent somewhere else. His 5.5M cap hit was slightly less than the 6.0M we’re paying Ekholm who is a better player. I do believe if we had gotten him at 50% retained either by Chicago or another team it would be considered a win even with the return.
For me the assets weren’t a problem . But eating that cap without having Nurse signed meant a deal Nurse could never live up to that Ken was sure to give him and even less cap space for a top heavy team
Keiths influence was good. But worth it for years of a tighter cap? When the cap goes up the space is short lived because contracts go up. Still need to manage astutely, to stay competitive long term
That was an unbelievable move. Unbelievable. Chiarelli should have just shown himself to the door. Instead he signed a big goalie contract as his final gufaw, then walked out.
The additional shocking part was, I believe Tippet/Playfair, playing Manning over Willie Lagesson right when Willie was in that place where he needed to play games and get in to a rhythm.
1. Any chance Barrie returns at the deadline? Move Broberg to LD, trade Kulak, etc.?
2. Why was the pro scouting so bad for so long?
3. I don’t understand why the Oilers (and any Canadian NHL team, for that matter) don’t sink a ton of small dollars into development for their prospects over the summer. Force feed the kids good food, 10 hours of sleep per day, the best skating coaches out there on the sheets of ice the organization own, hit the weight room after, with trips to the lake every weekend for esprit de corps.
A bit more on the Todd Woodcroft stuff over at ON.
https://oilersnation.com/news/no-allegations-or-indication-of-anything-beyond-inappropriate-texts-found-after-four-month-investigation-leads-to-university-of-vermont-firing-mens-hockey-coach-todd-woodcroft
Starting to sound like a Witch-hunt
There has never been a time when I didn’t think the Keith trade was a great trade. Just one of those ones where people will have to agree to disagree I guess.
It just kept getting better.
No, you must see it MY way!
Oiler Alert@OilerAlert·45m
On The Oil Stream, @TomGazzola mentions that he spoke to someone in the #Oilers org and was told to expect things to “go the distance” re McLeod/Bouchard negotiations. Also says EDM has put out feelers on a couple of UFAs, but that they’re smaller names like Caggiula & Pederson.
I’ve thought for some time that Holland should have a backup plan to give Foegele away for basically free in order to accommodate the McLeod/Bouchard signings.
Given how little cap room exists league wide and how many players are still without contracts that could be more difficult than it would have been in June when I thought it should have been done.
If McLeod makes it to arbitration there is a possibility the award makes the Oilers very uncomfortable.
Yup. Although I think it gets solved before then. That might also make the Oilers uncomfortable.
Yes, that’s fair. Though it’s possible (he knows) that a backup plan is still available.
i think one of the advantages of having an older experienced GM is that they know that shit happens and that backup plans are always prudent.
Yes for sure. He’s pretty much seen it all.
Holland has said he has a good sense of what the two contract will come in at and “has money put away.
Given arbitrators are only allowed to look at stats, and certain stats, and only allowed to use comparables to certain types of contract, they will have a very good idea of the “worst case scenario” in arb.
I don’t think we are talking about a big risk that its going over $2.5MM or anything.
For a 21 player roster, I think there is apx $6.375 to sign those two ($100K less if if Lavoie is on the roster over a league min 12F).
My favourite move by Glen was signing Reijo Ruotsalainen. Instrumental in winning 2 SC for us
Sather traded for Reijo twice that’s how much he liked him. He sure was a smooth skater he also had a cannon for a shot. Risto Siltanen was another Finn that could blast it. Sather scored in heavy with the Kurri connection we had tremendous output from The Land of a Thousand Lakes. Forty years later we draft a huge dominating raw Finn specimen that dominated the World Juniors and we get completely shafted.
Ottawa and their Assistant GM parted ways today
Paving the way for Staios to join his former boss and new Sens owner maybe.
I predict a nepotic outcome
And another green GM. Maybe he’s a prodigy. Please Gords
The “panic” / “handwringing” over the Lavoie contract made me realize how far this franchise has come.
I know the Cup is the goal, but McDavid has done something arguably harder. The wins will come but currently this is truly a top tier franchise.
There is no panic or handwringing for me but simply pointing out that the Oilers could be in a position at a point in the season where they can fit a league min player on to the roster and not one at close to $875K.
Its probably not likely but its not out of the realm of possibility and simply pointing out the extra $100K on the cap could be a disservice to the player – not likely but could.
Lol. OP, you’ve posted on it about 50 times since it happened. If you look up ‘panic and handwringing’ in the dictionary there’s a picture of you! 🙂
I love when you let your alter ego post on the comment board.
I am far from panicked – if they don’t have cap room for Lavoie (which is the potential issue I bring up), it is what it is.
I’m not all that concerned as (1) I think he’ll slide through waivers and (2) as I’ve stated, we don’t know if he’s an NHL player right now.
I post about it so many times as its come up as a topic (and, no, not by me), multiple times a day since he signed and I provide my opinion – there is a chance the contract hurts his ability to be on the roster – I’m hardly panicked, distressed or worried.
You’re doing a great job not being panicked, distressed or worried.
😎
Thank you, I appreciate that.
I think you are as well, even with you writing about the extra $100K (and its possible impact) at The Athletic today – similar to me, one of many times you’ve mentioned it over the last week.
Petty.
Relevant.
An amazing post
51.
I disagree in years past there was all kinds of trades, signings and rumours. Taylor Hall got traded June 29 and the discussion lasted not months but years and years. First time in along time this team is set. After pulling for Lavoie since he was drafted who wants to see him traded or claimed of waivers.
My only point to this initial comment was that an AHL player pushing to make the team while asking for too much and getting a bit too much and he might not even make the team on merit (making that overpay moot) could be considered poor asset management or poor negation from the player but if it’s the top catastrophe of the summer then this team has surely turned a massive corner.
Actually wrote this after watching Bruce explain it exceptionally well on COH and only put “handwringing” in quotations as Bruce wasn’t “handwringing” at all, but others have been. But the use of quotations seems to have been interpreted as a nod to OP specifically though it wasn’t “intended”.
It would seem Reja confirms your point if he is making a comparison of the level of the discussion on Lavoie to that of the Taylor Hall trade.
I do think it is worth mentioning that the deal Lavoie signed was his qualifying offer so it is unfair to say he was asking for too much or that it is an overpay. He was fully entitled to his QO as the amount for the offer for RFA’s is determined basically the day the player signs their ELC. If the Oilers wanted to keep his rights, they have to make this offer.
No one knows what the negotiations were between Lavoie and Holland from when he received the offer and when he signed it, but if he didn’t sign it prior to it expiring the other day, he would have been at Holland’s mercy for whatever his contract would have been.
Based on Lavoie’s comments in his interview with Jason Gregor, it almost seems like him being left with a $70,000 AHL salary will be a huge motivator for him to do what it takes to get into and stay in the NHL.
This team is indeed set: If we forget the giant question mark with Campbell it’s a much better starting line up than last years starting line up.
On opening days I mean.
Ekholm not being a rental is transformative.
I feel sorry for Buffalo fans. They make the Oilers DofD look cheery.
The Buffalo News
Owner Terry Pegula is taking on the role of president of the Buffalo Bills while top executive Ron Raccuia is leaving the team. The Bills announced the front office restructuring on Wednesday afternoon, describing Raccuia’s departure as “parting ways.”
Seems to be just on the business side of the operation is affected,
https://www.buffalobills.com/news/bills-announce-changes-on-the-business-side-of-the-organization
It seems to me that long after Lowe moved out of hockey operations you remained skeptical of his role and involvement. And when you are the owner even casual remarks somehow end up influencing the decisions of employees.
But my remark about feeling sorry for the fans is just that. They have suffered for a long time and this decision probably doesn’t make them feel any better.
An owner can make those remarks no matter the structure of the team.
Acquilini has been doing it in Vancouver for a long time.
My issues with Lowe still being involved, and he was appearing at the draft, was that he came directly from the hockey side after a protracted period of abject failure.
Acquilini has been doing it in Vancouver for a long time.
===========
Being around as an active member of management just makes it that much worse.
Yes, I know that was your issue – and there was some merit to the thought although the “protracted period of abject failure” actually made his opinions – should he have expressed them – less impactful.
Bills,Vikings and Browns are cursed for eternity.
Coupal (video coach) apparently leaving the team. Per Rishaug.
Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
Big loss for Oilers coaching staff. Video man Jeremy Coupal parting ways with the team. Had a great record on challenges and was clutch in some big moments.
Him and Leon were 1-2 MVP’s this year in playoffs. Hope the process is in place to keep his legacy and track record going.
Yeah exactly. As you say hopefully the process can withstand his loss without too much effect.
I didn’t realize Coupal had been video coach since 2016. Perhaps we can take that as evidence that it was the process (presumably relatively new) as much as the man that spiked the success rate on challenges.
where is he going?
I don’t think that’s known yet.
They had a conscious uncoupaling.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Brett Howden and Vegas have a pre-arbitration settlement: 2x$1.9M
Love these conversations with the antagonist I call GG! I wonder if they have the effect of preempting some of the similar comments in the comments section? Do they have any noticeable effect on the nature of commentators discourse?
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Gabe Vilardi and Winnipeg have a pre-arbitration settlement: 2x$3.4375M
Vilardi (if he stays healthy) could get nearly as many points as PLD for less than 1/2 the cap hit.
Oh, I don’t think so.
PLD will be playing with two elite shooters in Kevin Fiala and Arthur Kaliyev and against weaker competition.
The Kopitar and Danault lines will handle the toughs.
I’ve never heard you talk about the Kings before this is a refreshing summer change. Danault got caved last year.
FF 54.72%
SF 54.92%
HDCF 54.84%
xGF 54.11%
HDGF 47.37%
PDO .974
Thats not getting caved…that’s bad luck.
Good point, but since you’re mentioning he’ll be handling the toughs:
Via Woodmoney against elites:
DFF 48.8% (Dangerous Fenwick percentage, smarter people than I will correct me if this is not a similar measure to xGF)
FF% 49.8
SF 50%
GF% 43.5
PDO .986
Wrong side of 30, uh oh. I will admit it’s not caved.
Good point, but since you’re mentioning he’ll be handling the toughs:
Via Woodmoney:
DFF 48.8% (Dangerous Fenwick percentage, smarter people than I will correct me if this is not a similar measure to xGF)
FF% 49.8
SF 50%
GF% 43.5
PDO .986
Wrong side of 30, uh oh. I will admit it’s not caved.
Kopitar and Denault lines will not handle the toughs. They will try, but they will come up short.
Arthur Kaliyev is an elite shooter??
So, PLD is making $8.5m and needs to be sheltered and play with elite players to be effective. Meanwhile, Vilardi makes < half as much and is probably just as good (or better) a player as PLD.
But nice move by LA!
PLD – $8.5 – 27-36-63
Iafallo – $4.0 – 14-22-36
Vilardi – $3.4375 – 23-18-41
Kupari – ? – 3-12-15
Blake with the cunning 3 for 1 that brings in less offense and gives up more defensively. 4D chess while everyone else is playing baseball. Bloody brilliant!
Of course those roster spots will not go un filled.
LA has many, many options.
You mean their one top 50 prospect? Who isn’t even a forward?
Top 50 prospects tend to be top 6 forwards or top pairing D.
There are no vacancies in the Kings lineup for those but many candidates for bottom 6 forwards.
Ahhh, OK. I though you meant LA has many, many good options to fill the roster spots.
Wait a sec. Did HH Just admit that of ALL the vaunted LA Kings prospects he continues to rave about, only ONE is a potential top 6 forward or top pairing D?
And here I was under the impression they ALL were. Thanks for the correction HH
Now, to bookmark that comment…
Magic beans vs established NHL talent. All the defensive heavy lifting to be done by non-Elite defenders aging rapidly.
I’m not even reflexively anti-Kings, they have been an annoyingly tough out even if I believe the Oilers to be far and away a better team.
But sometimes you see a GM making asinine moves. Every single move Blake has made this offseason has made his team worse now and into the future.
As an Oiler fan I love it. It even more amazing to watch Treliving and Blake do it in back to back seasons to nick the competition. Love it. As a hockey fan its amazing to watch a non-Oiler GM shoot himself in both feet.
I quite like Vilardi, I hope he does well in Winnipeg. Heck, I quite like Iafallo as well, he’s someone I’d have liked to see in Edmonton if it was remotely possible cap wise. I’m not convinced LA came out on top in the PLD deal at all.
My (not very) bold prediction is that Montreal fans won’t be all that jealous of LA acquiring PLD by the end of this coming season.
Dom breaks down the most improved teams after offseason moves.
https://theathletic.com/4701104/2023/07/19/nhl-offseason-ratings-most-improved-teams/?source=user_shared_article
Seattle still sitting on a wad of cap space.
Must be waiting for bargains.
Kraken extend Hakstol through 25-26.
You figure they’ll weaponize some of that cap space and rocket themselves from 28th on the list to somewhere nearer the Oilers neighborhood?
Oh yeah, and most of that wad is destined for Vince Dunn’s pocket. Hence the sitting I guess.
They have $8.3 million with 3 goaltenders on the roster…should be over $9 million when that is handled.
I would imagine Dunn comes in around $6 million on a long term deal.
Well that’s incredibly optimistic.
But yes, they should have a little left to play with after they sign Dunn.
The question is, it be enough to move the needle on a team that Dom says got 11 goals worse this offseason?
Last offseason, they found Daniel Sprong sitting in the weeds and he delivered 21. Maybe they can do it again.
Worth noting that Burakovsy played only 49 games last season.
He should be able to make up most if the difference all by himself.
$6M is pretty low for his production and TOI. He should fire his agent for $6M AAV given that his comparables are $8.5M+ and the cap is going up. I would be shocked if it is $6M.
His production is not established and he is a RFA not UFA so has a little less leverage.
He may decide, like many players to accept a 2 year deal to take advantage of the rising cap on his next contract.
I’d be very surprised if the AAV is as low as $6M even on a 2 year deal. Maybe if it’s just 1 year. And he can become UFA next summer.
He is only RFA for one more season and he has arb rights. No chance will he do a long term deal for $6M like you stated. He is Seattle’s best defenseman and he has all the leverage. Sergachev’s deal looks like his closest comp to me if you are talking a long-term deal. If not, he would be better off to take a one year deal and hit a home run next summer.
$6 million is mediocre 2nd pairing D money.
1st pairing D start at $7.5 million.
In ’21 with Wisconsin Holloway’s EV GF-GA ON was 24-13 (64.9%) OFF 40-29 (58%)
Caufield’s was 57.1% – 54.4%
New Jersey signs Thomas Nosek. I didn’t see him as a fit in Edmonton, for me Lane Pederson and Pius Suter made more sense. Crickets on Toews, suspect he’s done or signing after the season begins.
1 x $1M apparently. Huh.
I do think that Holloway could and should push Brown for a top 6 spot but I don’t think it will happen. I think Brown’s career shows he’s generally a middle six guy that can play up in the top 6 but he’s likely a lock to start at 2RW given roster – I think he could be a great 3RW.
Yes, Holloway at 4C could/should be a viable option. He played a bit of C down in Bako but not much – of course, his last season at Wisconsin, he was a full time center and killed it.
In theory, it could work but it requires the coaching staff to commit to continuing to play the bottom six, not necessarily “rolling lines” but ensuring he doesn’t take his depth players out of the game. He has a penchant for shortening the bench way too early in games, in my opinon.
I don’t think Woody can commit to 10 plus 5 on 5 minutes for his 4th line which, for me, puts the kybosh on Holloway at 4C or McLeod at 4C (with Nuge as 3C).
The community has talked at length about Broberg potentially playing the right side in the top 4 – some think it should be with Nurse, others think it should be with Bouch.
In any event, I think most of us will agree that its highly unlikely that Manson starts him there if the d-group is healthy going in to the season.
They will give Ceci the chance to re-establish his former play and will likely ease Broberg in as Kulak’s partner.
The fear, for me, is that they continue to play Deharnais over Broberg to start the season – that’s where we ended in late May. I think that would be a mistake but I’m not the coach and I can see it happening.
I have seen post, but mostly heard verbal spots, about Broberg starting the year in the AHL and I think that’s wild. Stauffer intimated it a month back but, most recently, likely after reading this blog, he’s suggested Broberg at RD in the top 4 – wild swings.
I’ve got to think that Holloway can impact the NHL game offensively more than Lavoie this season – just from watching them play in the AHL, on the same team. Totally different players, both dynamic in their own right, but that motor and the skating on Holloway….. its intoxicating – here is hoping he takes that next step early.
Ceci’s former play wasn’t good enough to win the Stanley Cup. It is time to take Broberg out of the garage and onto the track, and give him runway to the trade deadline to see if he can do the job. If Broberg can’t then one has to make another “Ekholm” deal at the trade deadline.
Slow playing Broberg in draft + 5 when one is on a Cup hunt is for losers. One needs to get him from “here” to “there” by the trade deadline.
I don’t agree on Ceci – he was very good in 2021/22 and, while the pairing was a bit under water in certain playoff games, his partner could barely skate and they were taking on 50% TOI vs. elites.
We are on the same page with Broberg but I would suspect that Nurse/Ceci with TOI vs. elites reduced by 5-7% due to the Ekholm acquisition, and full health, will do much better.
There is a middle ground slow-playing and moving the player from clear 7D (in the coaches’ minds) to 1RD (off-side).
Agreed completely in regard to slow playing Broberg. As in don’t slow play him.
The Oilers have the luxury of knowing they will make the playoffs and likely be close to top of conference standings. Regular season (fingers crossed) is a foregone conclusion.
Time to get ready for the playoff grind from the first preseason game so give Broberg the needed development time to get ready for the playoffs now.
I’ve said it before but I’m still worried that Desharnais was on a heater last year. Seemed to fade in the playoffs quite a bit.
Nod to Bruce McCurdy for his line on today’s Klefbom article:
Body by Adonis; Shoulder by Achilles.
Good one Bruce! Nice mid-summer article.
How’s his eye-glow?
More than Thor but less than Will Smith.
While many have applauded Holland for the Ekholm trade, they tend to forget the massive haul of assets expended to replace Klefbom at 2LD.
Bruce lays it all out very well.
“Instead, the Oilers’ top four has been a rotating wheel these past three seasons. Nurse has been a constant on the top pairing; meanwhile Holland has traded for no fewer than FOUR guys for 2LD since Klef’s departure. After first determining that a hodgepodge of Kris Russell, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, and Slater Koekkoek weren’t top-four calibre, Holland dealt for rental Dmitry Kulikov at the deadline in 2021. That summer he made a controversial deal for Duncan Keith, then added Brett Kulak at the subsequent deadline. Finally in 2023 came the massive swap that landed Mattias Ekholm for not just the playoff run but for the following three years. Problem solved, right? Now consider that Ekholm is older today than Klefbom will be in 2026”
No assets expended for Russell, Jones, Lagesson, or Koekkoek. Minimal assets expended for Keith and Kulak. Real assets expended for Ekholm but the return was worth it, imo.
They could always go with Holloway & Lavoie taking regular shifts in the bottom 6. After all they will have plenty of veteran support with Ryan,Janmark, Foegele & MacLeod. If they can’t find a 4c they still have Derek Ryan and both Holloway & Lavoie can potentially play the center position.
Foegele-MacLeod-Lavoie
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan
Or
Holloway-MacLeod-Foegele
Janmark-Ryan-Lavoie
Or there could be plenty of other combos. Just might work.
Line up a rookie (Holloway and Lavoie) with 2 vets should be doable. Lavoie makes opening night roster, full stop.
I really like the idea of Holloway-McLeod-Lavoie
Holloway has experience playing with a one-shot scorer. I also like the idea of two speedy 2-way types with a slower, less than defensively conscious winger, but the lack of experience would be a worry.
Maybe it works at home when matching with 4th lines and select 3rd lines, but I wouldn’t want to take that show on the road….however, both McLeod and Holloway (not much in the NHL) have shown to be play-drivers)
I really like Ryan on that line on the road.
That line- Holloway-McLeod-Lavoie- will average out at 6’2″ and 210 lbs! The size AND speed is enticing,
I’m guessing we see Holloway-McLeod-Foegele as the 3rd line, at least out of the gate.
I am kinda hoping for a 3rd line of McLeod-Foegle-Brown with Holloway and Lavoie given chances early in the top 6 to see if there is a fit.
Fair enough, though I can’t say I agree.
I’m hoping that Brown is a great fit in the top 6. And I also like the Holloway-McLeod-Foegele 3rd line, in theory at least.
But Brown. I think he has a good chance to have an impact similar to Hyman’s (ie – pretty significant).
I’ve mentioned before he scored at a 20-30-50 pace his 3 years in Ottawa. At 5v5 he was among the top 80 forwards in the NHL those years in goals and points.
Brown developed into a fully legitimate top 6 forward (arguably even 1st line) in Ottawa, and I’m excited to see what he can do with the high end linemates he’ll have in Edmonton.
I would prefer Lavoie on LW and Foegle on RW. Foegele seems to be “just as good” on RW and, from watching Lavoie, I think he’s better suited to the left side and that’s where he played all of last season as a Condor.
Holloway was great as a center at Wisconsin (and did play a tiny bit as a Condor and I’d be open to him at 4C but don’t think Woody would be able to commit to using his bottom six given his history, which is a penchant for shortening his bench early and often.
If he can’t commit to 10 plus minutes for that 4th line (which I don’t think he can), I can’t have Holloway there.
I also do think it behooves the org to play Holloway with some established, not past-prime, NHL players – and some skill.
I like this. Although it smells suspiciously “blender” like. Let’s see who’s really under that cowboy hat…
IT’S OLD MAN MCLELLAN!
The comment regarding the free agent signings ignore the fact that if the term on any of those contracts could have been made shorter, the AAV would have unquestionably been higher so the cap usage in 23/24 to have all those players on the roster would have been significantly higher leaving less to sign other players.
All of Nuge, Hyman and Kane (when healthy) are playing at a level well above their current cap hit. If a team wants those players on the roster in the near term at the lower AAV it has to give longer term and take the risk on whether or how much their play diminishes in the latter years of the contract.
For example if Nuge plays like a $7-8 million player for 4 seasons and 4 seasons at $4 million value, the Oilers are ahead over the 8 years. The question isn’t will Nuge be worth less than $5 million per season in the latter years of his deal. It is rightly stated as will he deliver $40 million of value over 8 seasons. Both he and Hyman are making very good progress against their totals, while Kane is somewhat shy so far primarily due to injury. Campbell needs to outperform for a season or two to correct the total ledger.
Well, Nuge has delivered about $10M worth of value in year 1, so he only needs to cover $30M over the next 7 years, or about $4.25M annually. I’m going to say right now that he’ll outperform his contract.
And that’s without considering that the cap could be up around $100M by the time his contract is finished. Meaning he’ll be getting the equivalent (in today’s dollars) of $4M.
Nuge has actually played 2 seasons under his current contract and has 6 left (same with Hyman). His 50 points in 63 games in the first season, plus PK work was at least in the range of $5 to $6 million forwards and certainly there based on ppg. Plus he had 14 points in 16 playoff games. This year was the opposite, excellent regular season, but weaker playoff.
We’re on day 19 of Free Agency. As LT said, it’s quiet.
Day 19 of FA last season was July 31st (recall the late finish to the season) and from that point on there were only 5 more UFAs who signed deals over $1M with new teams:
Kadri $7M x 7
Stastny $1.5M x 1
Kessel $1.5M x 1
Rodrigues $2.0M x 1
Motte $1.35M x 1
There were 12 others who signed on or after July 31st for $950k or less though (11 of them under $850k).
I guess Tarasenko is this years Kadri (though he may not end up getting term). And maybe Tatar is the Rodrigues. The other 3 from last year are available again this summer, as well as quite a few more.
The top remaining forwards by points scored last year:
Tarasenko, Tatar, Kessel, Parise, Toews, Staal, N. Richie, Bailey, Suter, Brassard, Stastny, Heinen, Motte, Comtois, Grant, Nosek, Ernie, Gregor (there are more I didn’t list).
The top remaining Dmen by TOI/game:
Deangelo, Dumba, S. Benoit, Jones, Bear, Nemeth, Holden, Harrington, Beaulieu, Foote, Edler (that’s actually everyone who played >20 games last season).
Most of those players are going to be cheap.
Stastny would be an interesting pick up for Edmonton. Provided he’s willing to sign for <$1M of course.
Yes, for sure. I’m still hoping Toews decides he wants to continue playing hockey, but we’ll see about that. I would also welcome Suter, Nosek, Grant or Staal if they were willing for that price.
The PTO candidate(s) we see in Edmonton should be the best we’ve ever seen, hopefully….
Potentially. I still think they’ll most likely sign a 4C before camp, in which case they may not invite any PTOs. But we will see.
Last week we were discussing Dumba’s possible contract value. Someone threw out $3 million, which I stated was too high, in large part due to the fact that very few UFA’s get that much this far into free agency. (Not to mention the drop-off in his play). I would say now that he gets closer to $1 million than $3 million.
You could be right. I still think he and Tarasenko get significant AAV (if not term).
Elliotte Friedman@FriedgeHNIC·1h
Arbitration filings in for Ilya Samsonov (TOR). Team: $2.4M; player $4.9M.
——————
Why would Toronto file for such a low number I wonder? They probably still agree to something before Friday, but isn’t this basically just giving Samsonov a $4.9M award if it does reach arbitration?
In the NHL it’s not an either/or like in baseball. The arbitrator is free to choose any number (although unlikely to go over the high offer or under the low offer). This is just a play by the Maple Leafs to have Samsonov agree to what’s on the table before going to arbitration because he could get as little as 2.4M
My mistake, I thought the NHL was either/or as well. Nothing weird about the numbers if they are just to argue each side’s case.
Yeah, NHL arbitration is weird. Each side picks a number that scares the other side and then they almost always settle. 2 cases in the last 3 years made it to a hearing. Part of that is the arbitration process is so confrontational that the player and team generally head for a split anyways. Only one player that had a hearing in the last 10 years is still with his original team and that’s Trenin Yakov who went in 2022.
Yes, these things very rarely gets the hearing.
In terms of teams parting ways afterward, I guess in addition to the confrontational aspect, any player+team who go all the way to a hearing have demonstrated they do not see eye to eye. Failure to reach a compromise (contract) is probably a pretty good predictor of future failures in reaching compromise.
I prefer the either/or option. I think it keeps both sides more honest in their offer.
Yes, arguing for $2.4M is not being honest.
Is Samsonov asking for $4.9 million any more genuine? That’s $900,000 more than Oettinger signed for last season, though he didn’t have arb rights. Both sides will have comparable contracts and data that they will present as the basis for their position.
It seems just from memory that whenever these things actually get to an arbitrator all they do is find the midpoint between the two numbers which is just laziness or indifference so I understand why agents and teams do this. I would just prefer the either/or choice.
Toronto is already about $1.7 over the cap even if you eliminate their 13th forward and their 3rd goalie on cap friendly so Treliving still has some work to do.
I think the speculation is that they’ll use the arbitration buyout window to rid themselves of Matt Murray. The buyout would only cost them $687k this year, but then $2M next.
But looking closer, that would still only leave them with $800k for Samsonov (with a 22-man roster), so it looks like you are correct that they will need to make additional moves.
The $4.9M number is certainly inflated, but IMO it’s a fair bit closer to reality than $2.4M. Samsonov was 13th in wins last year, 5th in GAA and 6th in SV%.
Oettinger was signed that deal coming off ELC, and as you mention, no arbitration rights. Both of those things will deflate his salary. Samsonov is 26 and more established, though not all of it good in Washington.
I’d guess he’ll most likely end up with a 2-4 year deal with an AAV in the $4.5M range.
The Duncan Keith trade was a clear and obvious win.
I wish Caleb Jones well in his upcoming Swiss League career.
I don’t think there is much of an issue losing what we gave up but with acquiring Keith who made too much money for his ability and having to give anything for a player who obviously wanted to come here. Caleb Jones was on a good trajectory while here and will probably still play a few seasons in a bottom pairing role but isn’t a huge loss. Neither is the 3rd but they both had some value relative to the cap whereas Keith played as well as expected but the money could have been better spent somewhere else. His 5.5M cap hit was slightly less than the 6.0M we’re paying Ekholm who is a better player. I do believe if we had gotten him at 50% retained either by Chicago or another team it would be considered a win even with the return.
For me the assets weren’t a problem . But eating that cap without having Nurse signed meant a deal Nurse could never live up to that Ken was sure to give him and even less cap space for a top heavy team
Keiths influence was good. But worth it for years of a tighter cap? When the cap goes up the space is short lived because contracts go up. Still need to manage astutely, to stay competitive long term
He really helped with Bouchard’s development, too. Definitely a win.
Please gord no, not ever. The bar should always be higher. No offense to Rattie, offense to BM.
Chiarelli trading for Manning was like when George Costanza was doing everything he could to get fired by the Yankees.
That was an unbelievable move. Unbelievable. Chiarelli should have just shown himself to the door. Instead he signed a big goalie contract as his final gufaw, then walked out.
The additional shocking part was, I believe Tippet/Playfair, playing Manning over Willie Lagesson right when Willie was in that place where he needed to play games and get in to a rhythm.
New for The Athletic: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
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