Running AHL splits is an extreme pain in the ass, but it’s worth the effort. Why? Narratives rise and fall during any season and the AHL Bakersfield Condors have three or four levels of players. So, the rookie pros, and the men in their second and third pro seasons, and the veterans signed to NHL contracts all push for playing time. The AHL deals hang around and dream of the contract Vincent Desharnais and James Hamblin received a little while ago. So, what do the splits say about these men?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
LYING EYES
One of the narratives that has risen since the end of the season is that Xavier Bourgault “ran out of gas” and was not effective in the second half of the season.
Let’s look at the offense first:
- Before Christmas: 26, 8-7-15 (.58)
- Christmas-Jan 31: 14, 1-3-4 (.29)
- Final stanza: 22, 4-11-15 (.68)
So we can see the young man started well, faded, and then finished well. Eric Rodgers tracks even strength goal differential, and the splits from mid-season and end of year are revealing for Bourgault:
- Through January 15: 15-15 goals (50 percent) in 34 games
- January 15 end of year: 22-10 goals (69 percent) in 28 games
So, even though the eye test says “started well, then faded” in truth Bourgault’s final 22-28 games were strong. I can tell you from tracking prospects over many years that AHL rookies who outscore at that level don’t spend long in the minors. Bourgault will be in the NHL soon if he continues this way.
The perception that he “ran out of gas” is not fueled by the numbers. It’s our lying eyes again.
LET’S DO ANOTHER
Raphael Lavoie is the subject of much attention this summer based on a strong showing during the 2022-23 season. Our perception: He started slow (due to rust from injury) and then caught fire. Here we go:
- Before Christmas: 15, 3-2-5 (.33)
- Christmas-Jan 31: 14, 7-8-15 (1.07)
- Final stanza: 32, 15-10-25 (.78)
The offensive numbers reflect what we saw with our eyes. Slow start, strong after Christmas (second year in a row) and an impressive goal-scoring sprint at the end of the season. I wonder how much that injury last season impacted his final numbers? He might have received a recall in 2022-23 had he been as dominant before Christmas as after. Let’s look at the even-strength splits:
- Through January 15: 14-14 (50 percent)
- January 15 end of year: 33-19 (63 percent)
Interesting spike. In the second half Lavoie started using his man strength and became positively belligerent (that’s a good thing). It appears that both Bourgault and Lavoie were quality outscorers after January 15. Was there a defensive change? Here are the complete splits for all Condors defensemen one year ago. I walk into this table assuming the team bled qualified defensemen as the Oilers kept recalling them, with Bakersfield replacing them with odd sizes and roll ends. Here we go!
Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais were the main recalls, with Mike Kesselring getting traded on March 1 and Jason Demers playing one NHL game in the second half of the season. My perception (bleeding defensemen) is true, but the regular blue all spiked in the second half. That isn’t quite true, as Markus Niemelainen and Alex Peters saw some downturn (possibly due to playing tougher minutes).
So, what do these numbers tell us? I’m working on the theory that Colin Chaulk was slow to recognize what he had in Noah Philp, Tyler Tullio and others. More on that when we look at the splits next time.
New for The Athletic: Oilers’ hidden gems that could impact the 2023-24 team
https://theathletic.com/4731203/2023/07/29/oilers-roster-2023-24-hidden-gems/
I don’t condone graffiti and I’m not smart enough to post a photo here, but while on vacation I spotted this on a rock at ‘The Tunnel’ in Brigus, NL:
“LEON DRAISAITL IS BETTER THAN AUSTON MATTHEWS”
Kudos to my daughter for spotting it!
Oh wow im about an hour from there, I need to go check that out!
We had a great vacation. You live in a beautiful part of the world and the people are just as nice.
It’s on the right side as you look out to the harbour. You can’t miss it!
So, what Oiler forwards should play together? Looking at on ice results together from the past 2 seasons.
First the Supernova option:
McDavid+Draisaitl 762min 57%SF 56%GF 58%xGF
With Hyman 334min 61%SF 68%GF 62%xGF (those numbers are absurd)
With Kane — 79min 48%SF 14%GF 50%xGF (1-6 goals)
-Some ugly puck luck with Kane, though that combination was very good in the playoffs.
W/Kane playoffs 134min 47%SF 67%GF 52%xGF (12-6 goals)
Now McDavid linemates in minutes without Draisaitl:
McDavid w/out 1874min 55%SF 57%GF 58%xGF
/
McDavid+Hyman — 935min 54%SF 57%GF 59%xGF
McDavid+Kane —- 608min 54%SF 58%GF 54%xGF
McDavid+Nuge — 357min 55%SF 58%GF 61%xGF
McDavid+Foegele 184min 60%SF 57%GF 65%xGF
McDavid+McLeod – 89min 50%SF 60%GF 51%xGF (3-2 goals)
McDavid+Ryan —- 75min 59%SF 78%GF 73%xGF (7-2 goals)
And Draisaitl linemates in minutes without McDavid:
Draisaitl w/out 1792min 48%SF 51%GF 48%xGF
/
Draisaitl+Hyman – 589min 48%SF 41%GF 48%xGF
Draisaitl+Nuge — 572min 46%SF 56%GF 48%xGF
Draisaitl+Kane — 444min 47%SF 57%GF 44%xGF
Draisaitl+Foegele 281min 51%SF 57%GF 53%xGF
Draisaitl+McLeod- 158min 58%SF 50%GF 52%xGF
Draisaitl+Ryan —– 88min 53%SF 67%GF 58%xGF (4-2 goals)
Nuge without McDavid or Draisiatl:
Nuge w/out 971min 47%SF 52%GF 46%xGF
/
Nuge+Janmark 347min 45%SF 56%GF 44%xGF
Nuge+Hyman – 271min 48%SF 45%GF 52%xGF
Nuge+Foegele 238min 51%SF 58%GF 47%xGF
Nuge+Ryan — 206min 51%SF 58%GF 45%xGF
McLeod without McDavid, Draisaitl or Nuge:
McLeod w/out 1107min 51%SF 50%GF 52%xGF
/
McLeod+Foegele – 550min 55%SF 53%GF 59%xGF
McLeod+Ryan —- 248min 51%SF 60%GF 56%xGF
McLeod+Holloway 121min 48%SF 67%GF 52%xGF
McLeod+Janmark 115min 52%SF 50%GF 53%xGF
McLeod+Hyman – 114min 54%SF 38%GF 52%xGF (5-9 goals)
McLeod+Kane —- 82min 54%SF 50%GF 54%xGF
Derek Ryan without McDavid, Draisaitl, McLeod or Nuge:
Ryan w/out 853min 52%SF 43%GF 54%xGF
/
Ryan+Foegele – 299min 53%SF 39%GF 55%xGF
Ryan+Holloway 121min 47%SF 60%GF 55%xGF (3-2 goals)
Ryan+Kane —– 75min 49%SF 80%GF 63%xGF (4-1 goals)
Ryan+Janmark – 64min 54%SF 33%GF 63%xGF (1-2 goals)
*the Ryan+xxx minutes do not include Nuge or McLeod, but could include some McDavid or Draisaitl since there are too many names to include/exclude them all on NSTs line tool)
Any combinations I didn’t list were under 50 minutes together (or possibly I missed them by mistake).
Awesome!
thx
high level data suggest McDavids numbers are basically the same with and without the Drai
Looks that way, though I guess more goals are scored with them together, so the same GF% still means a bit larger goal differential.
Ryan shines with limited time
Yeah, it almost looks like he should get a bit more time up the lineup.
That’s a lot of great stuff and probably took you quite a while to pull together given some of the limitations of how naturalstattrick allows you to use and sort their data.
However, especially having to look at so many combinations, you had to limit it to pairs (other than Kane or Hyman with Leon/Connor), otherwise the permutations combinations of looking at full lines and even throwing in defenseman would make an exhaustive list that might make meaningful results harder to pick out. But who that 3rd forward, defensive pair and even goalie are all impact the outcomes, as does the opposition.
Rather than looking at the whole gamut of players with full 5 man units, which naturalstattrick does allow, I still wanted to look at Connor and Leon pre and post Ekholm. In 21/22 both did well together and apart. For most of 21/22 the Oilers had 2 serviceable pair of defenseman to go on the ice with McDavid and Leon apart, particularly after Keith was paired with Bouchard and Nurse with Ceci, but even before that they were ok. For most of this season until the acquisition of Ekholm, with all due respect to Kulak, the Oilers did not have 2 solid pair of defense of top 4 defenseman game in and game out, so one of Leon or Connor was going to be on the ice with a somewhat less solid 2nd pair. Throw in Ceci playing most of the season hurt, and even the first pair was substandard compared to last season.
Sure injured forwards in the top 6 had some influence at various times, but both seasons had various mixes of wingers in and out of the line up over the 82 games. Here is comparing the results of Connor and Leon last season, this season pre-Ekholm and post-Ekholm. I am only showing 21/22 in total since the numbers pre and post the Woodcroft hiring are almost identical.
2021/22 Connor w/ Leon 55%
Connor w/o Leon 61%
Leon w/o Connor 54%
22/23 Pre- Ekholm (61 games)
Connor w/ Leon 54%
Connor w/o Leon 50%
Leon w/o Connor 41.5%
22/23 Post – Ekholm (21 games)
Connor w/ Leon 100%
Connor w/o Leon 58%
Leon w/o Connor 57%
21 Games is no doubt a small sample size, and this situation is much more complex than this simple analysis reflects, but it suggests that balance on the back end plays a huge part in balance happening up front. Unfortunately due to various players playing with injuries in the playoffs this season (McDavid for a while, Hyman, Kane and maybe even Nuge), like last year, Woodcroft felt the need to again load one line, hope the other 3 could hold on and that they could win the special teams battle. Hard to say if Ceci playing hurt impacted Woodcroft’s up front decisions as well.
Yeah, aside from the impossible number of combinations, the sample sizes get very small the more players you include. I was thinking of how to best incorporate Brown into the group when I started (hence pairs). Likewise the samples get small quickly if you try to clip the time period, which is why I used 2 years vs 1.
But yes, Ekholm was, and should continue to be, a huge addition to the D corp. The post-deadline results were a bit of a heater, but he definitely gives the Oilers 2 better pairs on the back end than they’ve have in some time.
Interpreting what was happening post deadline gets more difficult when you break things down though. McDavid without Draisaitl and Ekholm had ugly numbers for instance, which I think is largely a sample size issue. Anyway, Ekholm = Good for sure.
The Edmonton Football Team is closing in on a North American sports record of most consecutive home losses..16-0 at half time.
Interesting that the TV crew is not showing any wide crowd shots.
Cursed for being weak.
23-0 as the 3rd quarter is winding down. I feel sorry for the players but nothing for the organization that inflicted this on themselves.
Edmonton has been inside the Lions 55 yard line once in three quarters.
This is historic ineptitude.
Rutting season is the only time of the year when Elks are dangerous & unfortunately for Edmonton it doesn’t coincide with the CFL’s schedule. 😎
@byterryjones
Getting SHUTOUT 27-0 in the CFL is virtually impossible. Getting SHUTOUT in this league TWICE by the B.C. Lions the same season to set the North American pro sports record with 21 consecutive home losses … Fire the GM. HC. OC. Release the QB. SOMETHING HAS TO HAPPEN.
Terry Jones
@byterryjones
Oh, and I stand by my prediction. The next time Edmonton wins a home game at Commonwealth Stadium will be the Oilers at the Heritage Classic against the Flames.
Stats split into segments is an important way to look at prospects. I would hope that teams at least look at rolling averages to get an idea of a player’s trajectory. Their end of season improvements put Bourgault and Lavoie in a very positive light.
Adding up all the goals for the defense you show here makes the GF% 49.5 up to Jan 15 and 54.1% thereafter. Outperforming your team’s results by 10% is very good. Did these two play together much?
This seems fair.
I think they had low expectations for both these guys coming in to last season.
I can’t remember if it was Gretzky or Bill Scott but I recall one of them talking about original plan was for Tulio to start in the ECHL and Chaulk talked alot by Philp struggling early with center duties and them need to yo-yo him back to wing and then back to center, etc.
I’m still so bumped about Philp – He can taken over from Kesselring as my “favorite prospect”.
It would appear with the acquisitions of Pederson & Grubbe; they’re not expecting Philp back any time soon. I must say though, I had him written in magic marker in the 4c role.
I don’t think they expect him back ever – the current word is “retired” although I don’t think he’s filed papers or anything like that.
They qualified him so the team clearly believes there’s ‘a chance’. For sure there was no indication the player suggested he’s likely to reconsider though.
Something rings a bell with Calgary having interest or some connection to him. Edmonton qualified him to avoid seeing him drive down the highway for nothing.
His brother signed in Calgary the year previous I believe. I had heard there was other interest in Noah from other NHL teams before he signed in Edmonton.
He could have done that season when he was a free agent and chose the Oilers. Edmonton qualified him because there was nothing but upside for the team doing so.
They qualified him to keep his rights in case he wants to give pro hockey another try in the future.
Yes, I think he wants/needs to be close to his family and friends but I don’t think bolting to the flames was (is) a concern.
If the kid thought he could continue to do what he needed to do personally and play pro hockey in Calgary, I would presume the Oilers would do him a solid and make small deal.
Agreed – he was a bully in the offensive zone post Christmas but, also, there was a consistency in his visual effort – what I mean by that is that he was consistently effecting the play in a positive manner most shifts and every game, even when he wasn’t posting numbers. I can’t say the effort wasn’t there consistently before but the results weren’t – he would disappear for stretches. That didn’t happen in the 2nd half this past season.
Being able to hockey train this summer (as opposed to injury/surgery rehab) and having a training camp should be huge.
Here is hoping he continues that dominance during camp and earns that opening night lineup spot!
Lavoie was coming back from his first major injury, which is sometimes a difficult learning experience. And the coach wasn’t helping giving him a tough time. Eventually, Lavoie just gets mad at everybody including himself, and starts playing angry. Et voila!
Come to think of it . Lavoie just needs some glasses held together with hockey tape and he might pass for one of the Hansen brothers.
I would suggest the coach deserves much credit.
The injury was a big factor, I’m sure.
I wonder if Connor Brown will get some leeway coming back from a major knee injury with major surgery?
To me it seems the player far more than the coach. The coach couldn’t figure out his own team till after Christmas, till his own job was probably on the line.
Lavoie himself has been very complimentary of the coaching staff and their efforts to help him recover from his injury and to improve his all around game. He talked about hours and hours with the coaches in the video room going over all aspects of his game. None of it matters if he doesn’t take the initiative himself to listen to what he is being taught and work both smart and hard to improve himself. Sounds like he has done that and wants to keep doing that to take the next step in his career. We’ll all see in September/October if he can take that next step…
Yeah I got to reading those articles you posed. Definitely worth it. He definitely seemed to be very positive about the staff, how he progressed through the year (on multiple levels) and excited about trying to grab a spot in the fall.
The coach pushed the right button
Perhaps the coach was doing what we all want the AHL coach to do – developing the young players.
Each of Lavoie, Philp, Tulio got better as the season went on. LT showed Bourgault got back on track after a mid-season lull.
Of course the player gets the most credit but to discount the AHL coach in the develop of numerous “real prospects” during the season due to team record, well, that’s a bit odd to me.
Good coaches typically don’t miss the playoffs in the AHL. It is a coaches league.
The Condors made the playoffs both years Chaulk was coaching.
Almost everyone makes the AHL playoffs.
They are designed to maximize revenue not to reward excellence.
Yes, 23 of 32 teams make the playoffs in the AHL.
At all relevant to Godot’s comment or mine, no.
7 of 10 Pacific Division teams made the playoffs.
You have to be really bad to miss.
Squeaking in and being blown out in the first round is not a badge of honour.
Still irrelevant to the prior posts, but fill your boots.
I thought the primary purpose was to develop the young prospects?
The Condors played in the playoffs last season.
Leeway from the team or the fans? Probably not the latter. If he starts slow, a big chunk of the vocal fan base (not representative of the total fan base) will be on Holland, Woodcroft and Brown in a heart beat.
Not enough info that I can find about Lavoie’s knee injury on what it exactly was or what correction was required other than it occurred at the end of March 2022, kept him from walking until June and out of the line up to November 1. So 7 months from injury to in the line up. And a shade over 9 months till he felt like himself.
Brown tore his ACL back in mid-October and had surgery at the end of October. The prognosis at the time was out 6-8 months. The 6 months took him to the end of the Capitals season, who missed the playoffs. He will be 11 months post surgery before the start of the Oilers regular season and will have the benefit of a full training camp to help get him more up to speed and comfortable on his knee.
The timing of Brown’s injury works in his favour compared to Lavoie for being more ready for his next regular season game with the extra 4 months to recover. What we don’t seem to know is the severity of his injury relative to Lavoie’s nor whether Lavoie being 22 vs Brown being 29 will work against him at all.
We do have some info on Brown’s injury and, from accounts, when they went in, it was a clear ACL tear with no other damage (meniscus, etc.) – the best case scenario for an ACL tear. I can’t remember exactly where I hear that but it was legit – I think it was Friedman.
I don’t know anything about Lavoie’s
With our fan base and a 4 million dollar contract there will be very little leeway given.
Yeah, pretty good bet things will reach their crescendo around Nov. 4th (game #10) unless Brown has 9 or 10 points by then.
Some people’s expectations for $4 million players may be a tad high, if failure is much less than a point per game (regardless of his other contributions to the team). Last season, 30 forwards in the NHL got paid between $3.5 million and $4.5 million. The median points and points per game for those 30 forwards were 40 points and .57 ppg respectively (the ppg seems higher due to not every player getting to 82 games). His point totals should also be tempered by how much PP time he gets which very much offsets getting 5 on 5 time with McDavid or Draisaitl. The higher scoring ~$4 million range players in particular get lots of PP time.
Yeah no question, and thanks for the context.
I think we already know many people’s expectations on these sorts of things are ‘a tad high’ though 🙂
Oh, expectations on Brown are way too high (generally), in my opinion.
Of course there should be a McDavid/Drai spike but we are talking about a player in his 29/30 season that has a career best of 21 goals and 43 points. He’s not going to be on PP1 on this team and, really, would love to have him as an elite 3RW (although we know he’ll start in the top 6).
But all 3 of his seasons in Ottawa were shortened by Covid (2 of them) or injury (the final one). As I’ve said before, Brown’s per 82 boxcars in Ottawa were 20-30-50.
What are you expecting from him?
I am certainly not expecting 35G and 70P.
Who’s expecting that though? That’s basically impossible to do without significant PP time. If Brown gets that then you never know, but I’m expecting something in the 50’s, assuming a healthy season.
Connor might need time to get up to speed but I myself see a fresh motivated veteran on a dream 1 year deal come out like a house on fire scoring 5-6 goals in his first 10 games. Booook it……
Very good information on Bourgault and his splits.
It seems Keith Gretzky also had his eyes lie to him as he mentioned on Oilers Now earlier this week how Bourgault faded somewhat –
I wonder if that was a plan to temper fans’ expectations?
Bourgault was pointless and -1 in two playoff games but the Condors as a team were poor in the playoffs.
Presuming healthy, I would expect we’ll see Bourgault in the NHL at some point this season.
I wonder if Lavoie has put himself in a bad position taking that qualifying offer. I could see them bringing in a player like Nick Richie at the minimum salary to give Lavoie some competition. Who knows how that would turn out?
I think Lavoie bet on himself and suspect he’ll win the bet. If he plays poorly in preseason, that gives Holland the opportunity to send him out. However, my guess is Lavoie plays well enough to force the issue. 21 good men and true it will be.
I hope he does. But he undoubtedly will have some competition. At least they would know what they are getting with a Nick Richie. Plus, he might be a nice fit in the bottom six providing some proven toughness and goal scoring ability like what Kostin provided.
On the other hand, who knows what Lavoie will bring?
Pick two players out of Holloway, Pederson & Lavoie to fill out the bottom six along with Foegele, MacLeod, Ryan & Janmark. Holloway has seen limited action in 51 NHL games, has a great opportunity, Lavoie remains a question mark, while Pederson with his understanding of what his role will be, the fact he is a RHC and his versatility might be enough. I must say, I’m pulling for Raphael Lavoie.
Ritchie is a known failure. He was a minus player on good Toronto and Boston teams. Not a reasonable bet for a contending team in the least.
Ok ok, I was just using him for an example.
Richie actually appears to have played pretty well in the 16 games he suited up for CGY last season. Very positive numbers (CF%, FF%, HDCF%) across the board but all sewered by an absurd SV% of 0.83. How much of that was his fault? I think he mostly played with Lucic.
Bakersfield certainly spiked in the 2nd half, much like the big club. IIRC a playoff spot looked like a faint hope earlier in the year.
On Chaulk, I wonder whether ‘slow play’ rather than ‘slow to recognize’ is more apt? That would probably be my hypothesis. I think in hindsight we can definitely see some method to the madness at least (and I think a clear example of it benefiting Lavoie for one).
I agree. In retrospect to Lavoie though, he wasn’t really ‘slow played’ or Chaulk ‘slow to recognize’. Sounds like his play was subpar until Chaulk had that tough chat with him, and that light a fire.
Perhaps that chat could have been had earlier in the season? It’s a two way street when messages are being sent, and some players aren’t ready to hear it.
I think it was rust. I think the story benefits the coach and serves to lessen the work of the player. I am possibly wrong.
All it takes is a nagging injury that sticks for a few months which as a result can make many players look pedestrian.
Absolutely true and a good reminder by you.
This is true, but it does seem like Chaulk really was a catalyst, does it not?
I know Lavoie’s offense was OKish (a bit under 0.5 points per game) and the team was out scoring with him on the ice his first 2 years. After the tense exchange and scratching though he had by far the best sustained stretch of games of his pro career.
No doubt health and knocking the rust off were also parts of the equation. The work Lavoie put in too, but the evidence would seem to suggest that Chaulk helped ‘convince’ Lavoie what was needed. I certainly don’t recall Lavoie ever being called a ‘bully’ prior to 2023. And IIRC his prior good (productive) stretch were 10-15 games rather than 40-45 most recently.
That’s fair. And to go further in the fairness department, no one pushed back with other theories when it was written.
I’m not quite sure what you mean. Which ‘it’ are you referring to?
The story surrounding Chalk benching Lavoie and then the player igniting.
Yeah I guess, though Chaulk was almost universally maligned circa Christmas 2022.
In any case it’s fine if we don’t fully agree. And I do agree that the side of the story you’re telling today should be a part of the conversation.
The job of an AHL coach is to develop NHL players. The proof will be in the pudding for Chaulk, and we’re still in the very early stages of being able to assess his work.
At the end of the season, I’d suggest all of Bourgault, Philp, Tullio, Lavoie, Kemp, Rodrigue, Kesselring and probably someone I forgot about had good arrows. My point doesn’t really hold water if even two of those names turn into solid to excellent NHL players.
Yes, lots of good arrows in the 2nd half. Lets hope the point gets proven wrong in the end 🙂
Here is a very good article from mid February summarizing Chaulk, Gretzky and Lavoie’s take on the turnaround:
https://insideahlhockey.com/article/monday-feature-lavoie-healthy-confident-with-condors
Whether Lavoie agrees that the talk was helpful or not, all agree that his play improved going forward from that point.
Nothing in here suggests that Chaulk was harsh or tough, just honest and helpful, explaining to the player why he needed to sit a game and what elements of his game he needed to correct to keep progressing.
Here is another interview with Lavoie, where he states “it wasn’t one conversation and the switch was on” certainly indicating it wasn’t the sole catalyst for his turnaround, but he wasn’t critical of it, and at the end of the article Lavoie was very complimentary of the organization and its efforts to help get him going.
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/sports/nhl/raphael-lavoie-hoping-he-can-give-edmonton-oilers-a-boost-up-front/ar-AA1clUiQ
Sounds well motivated to make the big team, but certainly doesn’t come across as a player who has a chip on his shoulder or any misgivings about how the Oilers have dealt with him.
Yeah slow play would be Philp, Savoie and Tullio, not Lavoie.
Keith Gretzky mentioned the healthy scratch (which was immediately after the conversation I believe) as a turning point. It looks to me like some successful tough love, though we can’t know for certain how much weigh to give it.
The entire organization has switched from gifting situations and icetime to having to earn it. AHL rookies and prospects included and it’s great to see.
I expect that beating on another large AHL player gave Lavoie some valuable perspective on how much he can push people around: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kgcTpUHQIdg&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hockeyfights.com%2F&source_ve_path=MTc4NDI0&noapp=1
He is a big guy, and using that often helps make players successful. Let’s hope he retains the confidence of a bully throughout next year.
Well, that was certainly a beat down.
HockeyFights has his last fight before that one as being in 2018. So, for whatever reason, he has not felt the need for fisticuffs since his draft day. Although he clearly doesn’t throw down often, it seems like a pretty clear expression of imposing your will on the opposition.
I asked previously if Holland thinks he could be a Kostin replacement. We can all hope it works out just like that.
I think Lavoie can add some skilled size to the bottom six, similar to Kostin, but he’s not going to be a banger or an intimidator or a protector based off of his history.
He uses his body in puck retrieval and driving the net and, while he can get fired up, he’s just not the type of player Kostin was in the physicality department.
Kostin will likely never bring that level of violence to his game ever again. He is a skilled player and 1st round draft pick who was forced into the enforcer role to save his NHL career. He did it, did it well, and he got a nice multi-year contract on a team that wants his potential offense in a top 6 role. Sure he’s going to hit but his goon days are likely over. Probably best that he moved on as the expectations in EDM would have been more of the same.
It will be interesting to follow his year in Detroit but if I had to guess I would guess what you said.
I’d like to see him beat on an NHL player like that. I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one. He would more likely be schooled harshly.
The Bakersfield AHL webpage lists Lavoie at 6’4″ and 215 lbs (likely more accurate the hockeydb’s weight for him). I don’t think he needs to be intimidated by too many NHL players. Probably wouldn’t want his first NHL fight, if he gets there and has one, to be against a Lucic, Maroon or Reaves. I doubt he is actually looking to fight, but he won’t shy away if challenged.
There are definitely more fights per game in the AHL than the NHL. I’d expect there is a smaller gap between the average player’s fighting than hockey skills, so I think Lavoie could hold his own.
I just hope he has the confidence to push back like that at the NHL level. Given how streaky his scoring has been, I expect confidence has a lot to do with Lavoie’s success.