I will tell you that I spend at least a portion of each NHL season worrying about Jujar Khaira. His story, and his family’s journey, is a favourite of mine. It’s about hard work, community, goodness and family. Khaira comes from good people, and he forged a hockey career that has punished him physically. The game gives and takes, and for Khaira, he’ll exit the game eventually with some substantial wounds. Concussions, back surgery, on it goes.
For an NHL team, before the trainer gets the fallen player off the ice, the wheels are turning on the identity of next man up. It’s a cruel world.
DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
Today is the day! Garage sale! I have books, records, games. The real appeal is the entire sale! Tables with IKEA furniture, clothes for all ages, genders & lifestyles (except Sherpa, nothing for you). It’s 11-4 TODAY! 10953-69 avenue. Near Liquor Island. Please attend.
So what are we talking about today, next man up? Yes. I think it’s important to name the players who could slide into more prominent roles due to injury, slumps and general malaise.
Let’s start in goal. Entering camp, I think Stuart Skinner is No. 1 but one has to assume some kind of rebound from Jack Campbell. Calvin Pickard starts camp as the No. 3 man, but I think Olivier Rodrigue could surpass him with another strong season.
Rodrigue had a .912 save percentage. Miles from .920. He owned the ninth best save percentage in the AHL a year ago.
Is he trending well? I would say so. In Stuart Skinner’s three full AHL seasons, his save percentage progressed from .892 to .914 to .920. Rodrigue has just one season over 20 games, and it’s the .912 save percentage from a year ago. He was .894 and .886 in his two seasons of part-time play previously with the Condors.
Who is next man up for the top-four defense? If we assume Nurse-Ceci and Ekholm-Bouchard, then the obvious next man up is Brett Kulak. He’s an experienced player and has had success there, although he is best suited to third pair based on his Edmonton resume. I think Philip Broberg is a strong candidate to move up the depth chart and could be in the top-four by the trade deadline.
And if he isn’t? It’s possible Broberg is part of a deadline package. I’ll bet he stays though. Edmonton needs inexpensive talent and he showed last season that he can handle the third pairing successfully.
What about Vincent Desharnais? Strictly third pair and PK work, I think. We shouldn’t discount his ability to adjust, and the game does slow down for players once they’ve played enough games to know how to cheat. Put it this way: If he’s second pair, it would be a surprise and I expect his foot speed/coverage time would have improved.
What about recalls? Markus Niemelainen is the obvious one and after that I don’t know. I think all of Phil Kemp, Cam Dineen, Noel Hoefenmayer and Ben Gleason are candidates. Max Wanner is a flat out rookie pro, I don’t think he’s an option. He does have the most potential, though.
Who are you most curious about? Hoefenmayer. He’s very interesting. Looking forward to seeing him.
Who moves into the top-six forwards first? We’ll assume the top two lines are populated by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane and Connor Brown. The next man up depends on position and style, in my opinion.
Who replaces Evander Kane? I think Warren Foegele is the most likely option there. He isn’t an enforcer but he has good hands, size, and can be effective when he’s playing a simple game. He wouldn’t need to carry the puck and to my eye he developed some chem with Draisaitl during the year.
Who replaces Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? Don’t have a good answer. Edmonton can’t move Ryan McLeod out of the middle with the current centre depth chart, and Dylan Holloway has not proven he can play in the top-six forwards. Derek Ryan is as smart as smart can be, I think the coaching staff might consider running him with Draisaitl.
You’re so wrong. Watch the games, nerd. I do. Derek Ryan will eventually get too slow to play NHL hockey, but he’s a wise man who can make smart plays.
Who replaces Connor McDavid? Next question.
Who replaces Leon Draisaitl? Next question.
Who replaces Zach Hyman? I don’t have a good answer for you. One would like to say eventually Xavier Bourgault, but that’s down the line. For this season, I think the club might just run with Foegele on the RH side.
Who replaces Connor Brown? Foegele, followed by Holloway, and maybe McLeod gets some top-six time. Derek Ryan deserves a mention.
Aside from Foegele, Holloway, Ryan and McLeod, who could you see playing top-six minutes this year? It would have to be an out of the blue option. Bourgault tears it up in the AHL, Lane Pederson finds chem with Draisaitl, that kind of thing.
What about Raphael Lavoie? Yes, he could, but you’d like to bring him along at a slower pace. Lavoie was strong last season and had moments the year before in the AHL. However, he didn’t start to dominate physically until maybe January last year. He’ll have a huge learning curve just playing in the NHL next season. He would have to be considered a major surprise if he got top-six minutes.
Give me the lines. Sure. McDavid centers Kane and Hyman; Draisaitl centers Nuge and Connor Brown. Ryan McLeod is between Foegele and Holloway; Janmark and Ryan are fourth line with Lane Pederson the obvious center if Edmonton dresses 12 forwards. Lavoie the extra.
First recall? After the 13 names above, I do think the strongest recall candidates are Drake Caggiula, James Hamblin, Brad Malone, Greg McKegg, Seth Griffith. Younger players like Xavier Bourgault or Tyler Tullio would be options later in the season if they spike.
Petry still plays top 4, probably because of his great skating. He played as much against elite as Letang last season according to Puck IQ. CF% and FF% the same as Letang and both above 50%, so I’ll assume he’s decent still. I see him as an upgrade on Ceci because he’s a better skater and particularly puck mover, a better partner for Nurse
Jeff may agree to return to the Oilers given it’s an entirely different org, plus Connor and Cups on the horizon. He has a contract year left after this one. Or he may want to stay East coast and it’s all for not
Montreal are re-shaping their team and looking for upgrades everywhere, I think two way players which is why they dumped Hoffman. I think Foegele might interest them, and Ceci would be their best vet RD, they will try to move Petry fr obvious reasons. So why not?
I think Ceci being a top 4 RD playing a lot against elites has value, and Foegele we know has garnered interest as he’s not expensive for a team with Cap, and is a decent two way bottom 6 winger that can PK and has adequate offense. They are full time NHL regulars and not old
Petry at 50% retained for those two. One buys Petry, one the 50% retain. Montreal has no one to sign, and after the trade can ice 23 with over 3M in cap. I think it’s possible. I would play Holloway as 4C and roll 4 lines, and sign two low cap wingers, hopefully one a RS that can take faceoffs, elevate Janmark. Ralph is on the team bottom 6 to start. 22 guys and a whopping 189K to spare
I forgot to mention I signed Bouch 6M x 8. Would he do that? Maybe because he gets paid now, and it seems that overall contract value is looked at as much as salary. Matches Ekholm’s salary. Did it again as I deleted the last CF roster. Petry at 50% for Foegele and Ceci
I added 2 x 800K players and Pederson at 775K this time, 22 players and 328K cap space. I would try Holloway at 4C, I think he can do it and it’s better to do that, better to roll 4 and get at bats in, than underutilize him again. Also to get speed and skill throughout the forward group while it’s affordable with ELCs. A smokin’ fast centre group. I think Janmark healthy is better than Foegele. I think it’s a better team overall
Kane CMD Hyman
Nuge Drai Brown
Janmark McLeod Lavoie
X Holloway Ryan
X X
Yeah, the money makes sense if Bouchard is at $6M instead of $4M.
I don’t think it’s likely Bouchard would sign that deal though, given that he’ll already be at about $4M, on a 2 year bridge without arbitration rights.
I would definitely have time for 50% retained Petry, but would also guess he’s less into Edmonton.
You may be right, but it seems from contracts signed and what I read from agents that guaranteed money over that term is appealing. Bouch will get paid, and he may also get injured before that and be affected career wise, or might get traded to a crap team and get paid less having lesser results
I don’t have an example, but I’ve noticed in reading that while we tend to focus on cap hit the deal makers also focus on the value of the contract in total
So for a guy not in position for a top deal yet, say 48M guaranteed at 23 with another big pay coming if healthy has value, bird in hand. Sure Makar got 9 but Bouch isn’t him
Maybe it takes 7M. That would be hard so trust Bro and move the 2.75M 3rd paid D
Essentially if you aren’t moving Bouch because you believe in him the earlier you lock him up the better the team can be in the future. Keeping guys getting paid above their level and that stopping important deals catches up
Yeah, I don’t know. Sergachev got 8 x $8.5M (signed last summer when his career high was 40 points).
I agree with you in a general sense, but ‘cup windows’ are real. The Oilers best chance is the next 2 seasons before McDavid and Draisaitl get significant bumps in pay. Putting the best team on the ice now maximizes that window (and increases the chances of the big guys re-signing).
Assuming they do re-sign the window remains open, but things get a lot harder (ask Colorado or Tampa Bay).
Anyway, I’m in agreement with the guys in charge that keeping Bouchard’s current AAV down by bridging him is the better move. I think that with full knowledge that it will mostly likely lead to a more expensive deal for Bouchard down the road, or potentially even a trade if he gets too expensive.
And here the whole world was shitting on me and calling me Fanboy when I thought Oil would be lucky to sign Bouch 6×6.
Harpers Hair
August 12, 2023 1:10 pm
No surprise but it looks like David Krejci is done.
“I don’t think I’m going to 99 percent start the season anywhere. In the NHL, in the Czech Republic, not even in Europe. If it takes me up until Christmas to decide, it takes until Christmas,” David Krejci said.
Give me the lines. Sure. McDavid centers Kane and Hyman; Draisaitl centers Nuge and Connor Brown. Ryan McLeod is between Foegele and Holloway; Janmark and Ryan are fourth line with Lane Pederson the obvious center if Edmonton dresses 12 forwards. Lavoie the extra.
I agree with these lines.
So many have Brown with McDavid and there is the “Brown signed to play with McDavid” but, for me, McDavid/Hyman is a proven successful pair and, if we are being honest, Drai needs the proven 2-way forward, Connor Brown, as opposed to the meh 2-way forward Zack Hyman.
I don’t think there will be room for that extra 13F on the roster.
Is it good that the one real battle in camp is the battle for 12F among the likes of Pederson, Lavoie, Sutter and a potential addition PTO or even league min signing?
OriginalPouzar
August 12, 2023 10:21 am
What about Vincent Desharnais? Strictly third pair and PK work, I think. We shouldn’t discount his ability to adjust, and the game does slow down for players once they’ve played enough games to know how to cheat. Put it this way: If he’s second pair, it would be a surprise and I expect his foot speed/coverage time would have improved.
I like Vinny but I would suggest strictly 7D, as opposed to 3rd pair, for me. Unless something forces a chance, for me, Broberg plays each night and Vinny only plays in a 11/7 set-up and not 6D over Broberg.
That’s my opinion on now it should deploy – at least for the first 6 weeks. The play on the ice will dictate if that deployment needs to be altered but not until Broberg gets a legit 20 games of 14 plus minutes per night – again, just my personal opinion.
OriginalPouzar
August 12, 2023 10:18 am
Who is next man up for the top-four defense? If we assume Nurse-Ceci and Ekholm-Bouchard, then the obvious next man up is Brett Kulak. He’s an experienced player and has had success there, although he is best suited to third pair based on his Edmonton resume. I think Philip Broberg is a strong candidate to move up the depth chart and could be in the top-four by the trade deadline.
By the deadline or opening night?
I am somewhat convinced that Stauffer read the blog and comments. He started the off-season talking about the possibility of Broberg starting in the AHL to get big minutes, he then moved to talking about him maybe seeing some reps up the lineup with Ekholm as the season moves on and, just recently, he talked about the potential for Broberg to START the season in the top 4.
Its tough for me to envision Manson not staring Nurse/Ceci as he’s been remiss to break them up even for a small look since he put them together.
I think we all hope that Broberg presses up.
First things first, get through camp healthy Philip!
Imagine if they didn’t play hobbled players against top comp
I see a pattern with Holland’s 2 Oiler coaches. Can’t play the rookies because they make mistakes, even if they are more talented. Don’t want to ruin their confidence. Can’t play the bottom 6 too much regardless of play. Yet, evidenced by the chronically problematic 5v5 GA, at least when it counts the most, the ‘vets’ are also making mistakes, with no upside
It makes me wonder if Holland has a preference for systems and hires coaches that think the same, but they are wrong about the fit with the roster. They make strides which I’m sure somebody is going to mention, but give it all back when it counts. I think this is fair to say
Nuge was getting crushed these playoffs, but no one in the org could play better? Kane was obviously not able to contribute, no other options? Ceci wasn’t good, he was hurt, but that’s it?
Playoff 5v5, GP, TOI, GF/GA, GF% REL
Forwards
Kane 12 / 208:52 / 7/11 / -14.24
Leon 12 / 203:31 / 14/11 / 16.00
Connor 12 / 201:52 / 10/9 / 7.47
Hyman 12 / 176:10 / 9/6 / 17.14
Nuge 12 / 160:18 / 3/8 / -26.57
Yama 12 / 159:13 / 5/11 / -24.63
Mcleod 12 / 140:49 / 4/5 / -4.34
Bjug 12 / 134:33 / 3/4 / -5.98
Foegele 12 / 129:37 / 3/5 / -12.50
Ryan 11 / 112:31 / 6/3 / 20.95
Kostin 12 / 89:22 / 6/4 / 15.00
Janmark 5 / 33:55 / 2/1 / 25.49
Defense
Bouch 12 / 210:12 / 9/10 / -1.02
Ekholm 12 / 209:19 / 9/9 / 3.13
Nurse 11 / 198:12 / 10/11 / -4.23
Ceci 12 / 185:57 / 6/10 / -15.44
Kulak 12 / 172:18 / 6/4 / 15.00
Des 12 / 134:49 / 4/7 / -14.92
Bro 9 / 59:43 / 4/1 / 40.61
Of course Quality of Comp has to do with this, but what I think is that if you have a lower player playing well, or younger, can they not contribute more in a short span than a player too hurt, or playing poorly? Even if they can’t do it for 82?
How can you have a playoff hero if they don’t get the chance to be one? I am sure Ryan was itching to get higher up and make something happen, watching guys get owned from the bench, and he is more than capable to do it over a few games. He’s a smart hockey mind, he saw what was going on, as he’s let us know before
The usage and results look to me like a coaching group with a plan they won’t deviate from, regardless of results. I get ‘following the system’ and ‘following the plan’, but that is more a regular season thing. When you are in the heat of the battle, winner take all, you do whatever you have to to win, play who is the best option regardless of anything else, or you don’t win, obviously. They did the same sort of things against the Avs
It still irks me Woody had them trying to play a hard game and ‘planting seeds’, which isn’t really the team’s style even if a few players are like that, and with injuries existing and mounting. I think they took themselves off their best game. When I see Connor looking for hits – more than just taking what comes up and finishing checks – I am thinking there’s a coach who has no idea how to win with a player like that. And another one not far behind
Hopefully they learned their lessons, but I don’t see them adapting very quickly so far. For me, being better than the bad before still isn’t enough to settle for. I am also on the side that the improvements made have more to do with maturation of the top players and a few roster upgrades, over anything else
So much like Flattop and the Babcock/Holland tree, despite that he says he’s his own coach. Not playing well enough as a group? Pull out the blender and make them follow the system. So old school, so meh, players hate it and say so
Assuming a player has the tools, confidence is a massive part of how a player performs. Our coaches certainly take the old school view of sheltering a young player to foster confidence. Whereas coaches on other teams will give young players more responsibility against tougher comp and live with the mistakes, provided they are slowly being eliminated. I prefer the latter approach, especially when veterans trusted with the tougher comp are also making mistakes. Show confidence in your players and they will reward you.
It has to be coming from Holland he seems to have no use for developing young players. He trades away half his picks or more. It’s the same style as in Detroit where he had no cap and Pizza money coming out of his owners ass. I think the last Cup he won was in the Sslary Cap era but the team was already cemeted. Holland has had horseshoes he lucks out with the CCCP all-stars then he gets gifted Leon and Connor talk about a man that’s lived a charmed life.
It’s the same style as in Detroit where he had no cap and Pizza money coming out of his owners ass. I think the last Cup he won was in the Sslary Cap era but the team was already cemeted.
Right, fitting that bloated, no cap, roster under the newly introduced salary cap and winning another cup would have been very easy.
Seems to argue at least one of ‘the pre-cap roster wasn’t that bloated’ and/or ‘Holland did some fine work to get compliant and still win another cup’.
Remember Peter Puck boasted that the Oilers would win a Cup in 5 years and he nailed it. This is year 5 for Holland if he doesn’t get it done then what? If Holland does stick around and can get Leon to sign for max next offseason that would be a real feather in Hollands cap.
One isn’t winning the Cup with Ceci on the top pair. It is time to try something different. Playing it safe, should be the fallback position, not the starting position going forward. Aim higher. Play Broberg with Nurse.
I’m firmly in the camp of running Broberg with greater responsibility until the deadline. The team needs to find out if he can face tougher comp before then, to determine the level of need to spend assets on another D at that point.
He will be at least as good as Nurse. Similar skill sets minus the fighting, similar issues. I think he’s a more talented player though, and a better skater
We can’t account for future injuries, but Bro is a worry. Nurse is a fast skater but Bieksa (I think but a former NHL D anyhow) doesn’t think Nurse turns well. I see Nurse as not a smooth skater also, but he can get around for sure. Bro is as smooth as butter in 4 directions, so a better skater to me and at least as fast
I haven’t seen Broberg use superior skating ability at the NHL level. Nurse’s ability to get back in the play after being low in the offensive zone and his ability to defend off the rush (he almost never gets beat wide) is pretty elite.
“The definition of insanity…” line amuses me in a sports context because a lot of what athletes do is the same task over, and over, and over, and over again. There’s even a name for it – training.
On another note A-I will be doing Oiler analytics within 5-7 years. Watch what you wish for it’s coming fast.
OriginalPouzar
August 12, 2023 10:13 am
Let’s start in goal. Entering camp, I think Stuart Skinner is No. 1 but one has to assume some kind of rebound from Jack Campbell. Calvin Pickard starts camp as the No. 3 man, but I think Olivier Rodrigue could surpass him with another strong season.
I agree that the Oilers start camp with Skinner penciled in as the opening night starter and the #1 guy. At the same time, I suspect the coaching staff is planning on a tandem, a 1A/1B structure, and a 45/37 split, or something along those lines.
Skinner starts camp in the pole position but I don’t think he’s a lock for game 1 starter.
————————
Pickard is a high end AHL goaltender and clearly the guy that gets called up if their is an injury but this has to start as a 50/50 split between Pickard and Rodrigue, right? The real prospect needs to start half the games, unless something forces a chance, one way of the other, right?
I know you haven’t given up on Campbell unlike a strong contingent in these parts. Keep the faith Brother if we can get a 1-2 punch of a combined 910 save percentage in today’s free wheeling game I’ll be happy. I really think the rock Ekholm ( Huddy) and his partner will take the heat off the Nurse pairing solidifying the entire back-end.
NBStone
August 12, 2023 9:56 am
I haven’t seen enough of Jeff Petry to know if this is worthwhile, but would a package of Kulak, Lavoie, and a fifth for Petry and 50% retained be something worth pursuing?
Petry at 50% would only be $2.344M too, so $400k cheaper than Kulak. That would likely open up enough space that they could run 22 players (there would be ~$1.55M for the 21st and 22nd roster spots if Bouchard signed for $3.9M).
I like opening up a clear spot for Broberg to play as well, though I’d guess it’s highly likely Edmonton is on Petry’s no trade list.
Not sure I would do a Kulak for Petry (50% retention) trade straight up, nevermind adding someone like Lavoie. Not to mention it sounds like Petry has no interest in suiting up for Montreal, so they are just looking for anyone to take him off their hands for free. Hard pass on that deal.
Not sure I would do a Kulak for Petry (50% retention) trade straight up
Interesting.
Age erosion over the next 2 seasons would obviously be a concern, but Petry played more and tougher minutes than Kulak did last season, and his results were equal or better on a worse team.
Combine that with him actually being ~$400k cheaper (if at 50% retained) and playing a position of more need, I would definitely entertain that (larger) trade if available.
I agree though that he’s probably not interested in a return to the Oilers.
Age erosion is my primary concern with a trade like that. If Petry had only one year left on his deal I’d maybe consider it for the reasons you’ve laid out. He’s turning 36 less than halfway through this season, so if things go south I’m not sure what the exit ramp is other than buyout or attaching assets to him in a trade. I just think the risk is too high for the limited reward.
Yeah, I guess I’m having a hard time seeing much risk if his AAV is only $2.35M. And I think there is a pretty substantial amount of upside in terms of roster improvement at that number.
Take Lavoie out and sure. If Petry was 27 or something I’d would consider giving up a much needed big offensive forward with edge, but Jeff is way too old for that. They seem to be looking for upgrades of certain player types, maybe Foegele would be interesting to them. Or Kulak and Foegele and make some cap room to do even more
Not Kenny’s MO though. He doesn’t get too excited when competing GMs with some skills do amazing deals that solve problems and get things they want. I am not a Dubas fan, but the Karlsson deal was slick. Even if he’s copying his thing from Toronto – come in with a big expensive splashy contract. Pretty slick that he usurped POHO and GM too. He must be some talker
Kent Hughes / Gorton just crushed in that deal, only took 800K and a bit in cap and got rid of Hoffman, got a solid trade chip in Petry, a goalie with an above average SV%, a French prospect and a 2nd, and only gave up a mediocre Rem Pitlick. Beauty piece of work there
I meant to say Ceci. Petry would take his spot and for the better
jp
August 12, 2023 9:28 am
It’s possible Broberg is part of a deadline package. I’ll bet he stays though. Edmonton needs inexpensive talent and he showed last season that he can handle the third pairing successfully.
I agree it’s unlikely Broberg is moved. In addition to the reasons you list, I don’t think there’s much precedence for Ken Holland including Broberg in a trade.
I just had a look back at his trades and Schaefer might be the only young first round pick he’s ever traded. In terms of former high picks who had already played an NHL game (like Broberg and Holloway), I don’t think there were any.
It seems likely that Broberg will get every opportunity to fully develop as an Edmonton Oiler.
It seems likely that Broberg will get every opportunity to fully develop as an Edmonton Oiler.
================
The question I have for you is what does that look like?
Nurse is here forever and Ekholm has three more years. Barring injury both look to be locks for top four LD for some time to come. Broberg is 22 and a top ten draft pick. I don’t think they had 3LD in mind when they made that decision.
So what does Broberg’s development path look like to you if he remains an Edmonton Oiler?
For me it’s:
1) Get reps as an every day 3rd pair Dman (not just one of 7D) like he was for 15-20 games in Dec/Jan last year
2) Transition to the right side (that could be immediately or later)
3) Injury/performance fill-in for the top 4, either side as opportunities arise
4) Eventual transition to the top 4. Most likely on the right side (though Ekholm could also move over, for instance). Timeline will depend on Broberg, Ceci and injuries. Could be as early as this season, potentially as late as Ceci’s deal expiring (end of the following season).
And despite what you’ve read, there are more lefties than righties in the player pool, so many D play on their off side.
Some do it better than others, and it’s something Broberg had on his resume, at least, when he arrived in North America. (I know you know all of that but figured it might still be worth saying 😉 )
As you said I know all of that. I just thought it was important to clarify that that is what Holland is thinking about when he says Broberg is on his mind.
I agree with you that Broberg will be given every opportunity to develop with the Oilers but with the caveat that the leash is fairly short given their cup aspirations.
Some of that depends on Ceci and how he does this coming season but when I look for team weaknesses, strengths and trade chips it is a short list and Broberg’s name has to be part of that list depending on how things are looking come February.
Nobody likes to trade 22 year old high potential dmen but expectations are high for this team this season. I wouldn’t write it off.
We can’t ‘know’, but I think what Holland is thinking about is how to get Broberg the appropriate minutes to develop (obviously while also icing the best team possible).
And you’re right that Broberg has to be part of the asset list. It true the list isn’t all that long, but it does include 24 1st, 25 1st, 26 1st, Bourgault, 24 2nd, 26 2nd who I’d think are more likely pieces out than Broberg.
Yeah, that’s definitely fair. And if they are approaching to a determination that Broberg won’t be able to fill a top 4 role in the future then no question he would move up the asset trade list.
I don’t think we’re (they’re) anywhere close to that kind of assessment though, hence my opinion that all the trade chips I listed (and perhaps even a couple I didn’t) are more likely to be moved than Broberg.
I wouldn’t say that Broberg missed last season. I think he was coming along very nice – the talk about him being “untouchable” even started back up mid-season.
This miss was Kulak not being able to play at a legit 2LD level nightly (and the PK losing games).
Broberg was coming along nicely but didn’t have the experience to be tried up the lineup quite yet and part of that was the organization not giving him the reps the prior season (as some had suggested they needed to).
Sergachev was stuck behind Hedman and McDonagh forever, until last season. During that time he anchored the 3rd pair, and moonlighted in the top 4 on the right hand side.
One of the perks of a very talented roster & competent drafting is that they could afford to do that. Not a lot of teams that could resist the temptation to fill a hole of greater need.
New for The Athletic: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
https://theathletic.com/4763847/2023/08/12/oilers-jeff-jackson-innovation/
Why is everyone here pining for Petry? He has a 15 team no-trade list and I’d bet a lot of money that Edmonton is on that list.
Even without a negative exit from Edmonton in the past, the west and Canada doesn’t seem likely to me
Agreed. That option is ten years gone.
Petry still plays top 4, probably because of his great skating. He played as much against elite as Letang last season according to Puck IQ. CF% and FF% the same as Letang and both above 50%, so I’ll assume he’s decent still. I see him as an upgrade on Ceci because he’s a better skater and particularly puck mover, a better partner for Nurse
Jeff may agree to return to the Oilers given it’s an entirely different org, plus Connor and Cups on the horizon. He has a contract year left after this one. Or he may want to stay East coast and it’s all for not
Montreal are re-shaping their team and looking for upgrades everywhere, I think two way players which is why they dumped Hoffman. I think Foegele might interest them, and Ceci would be their best vet RD, they will try to move Petry fr obvious reasons. So why not?
I think Ceci being a top 4 RD playing a lot against elites has value, and Foegele we know has garnered interest as he’s not expensive for a team with Cap, and is a decent two way bottom 6 winger that can PK and has adequate offense. They are full time NHL regulars and not old
Petry at 50% retained for those two. One buys Petry, one the 50% retain. Montreal has no one to sign, and after the trade can ice 23 with over 3M in cap. I think it’s possible. I would play Holloway as 4C and roll 4 lines, and sign two low cap wingers, hopefully one a RS that can take faceoffs, elevate Janmark. Ralph is on the team bottom 6 to start. 22 guys and a whopping 189K to spare
How did you spend all the money?
With Foegele and Ceci out, Petry at 50% in, and 2 new $900k forwards I think they should still have $2M left over.
I forgot to mention I signed Bouch 6M x 8. Would he do that? Maybe because he gets paid now, and it seems that overall contract value is looked at as much as salary. Matches Ekholm’s salary. Did it again as I deleted the last CF roster. Petry at 50% for Foegele and Ceci
I added 2 x 800K players and Pederson at 775K this time, 22 players and 328K cap space. I would try Holloway at 4C, I think he can do it and it’s better to do that, better to roll 4 and get at bats in, than underutilize him again. Also to get speed and skill throughout the forward group while it’s affordable with ELCs. A smokin’ fast centre group. I think Janmark healthy is better than Foegele. I think it’s a better team overall
Kane CMD Hyman
Nuge Drai Brown
Janmark McLeod Lavoie
X Holloway Ryan
X X
Nurse Petry
Ekholm Bouch
Bro Kulak Des
Yeah, the money makes sense if Bouchard is at $6M instead of $4M.
I don’t think it’s likely Bouchard would sign that deal though, given that he’ll already be at about $4M, on a 2 year bridge without arbitration rights.
I would definitely have time for 50% retained Petry, but would also guess he’s less into Edmonton.
You may be right, but it seems from contracts signed and what I read from agents that guaranteed money over that term is appealing. Bouch will get paid, and he may also get injured before that and be affected career wise, or might get traded to a crap team and get paid less having lesser results
What contracts are you seeing as instructive here?
I don’t have an example, but I’ve noticed in reading that while we tend to focus on cap hit the deal makers also focus on the value of the contract in total
So for a guy not in position for a top deal yet, say 48M guaranteed at 23 with another big pay coming if healthy has value, bird in hand. Sure Makar got 9 but Bouch isn’t him
Maybe it takes 7M. That would be hard so trust Bro and move the 2.75M 3rd paid D
Essentially if you aren’t moving Bouch because you believe in him the earlier you lock him up the better the team can be in the future. Keeping guys getting paid above their level and that stopping important deals catches up
Yeah, I don’t know. Sergachev got 8 x $8.5M (signed last summer when his career high was 40 points).
I agree with you in a general sense, but ‘cup windows’ are real. The Oilers best chance is the next 2 seasons before McDavid and Draisaitl get significant bumps in pay. Putting the best team on the ice now maximizes that window (and increases the chances of the big guys re-signing).
Assuming they do re-sign the window remains open, but things get a lot harder (ask Colorado or Tampa Bay).
Anyway, I’m in agreement with the guys in charge that keeping Bouchard’s current AAV down by bridging him is the better move. I think that with full knowledge that it will mostly likely lead to a more expensive deal for Bouchard down the road, or potentially even a trade if he gets too expensive.
And here the whole world was shitting on me and calling me Fanboy when I thought Oil would be lucky to sign Bouch 6×6.
No surprise but it looks like David Krejci is done.
“I don’t think I’m going to 99 percent start the season anywhere. In the NHL, in the Czech Republic, not even in Europe. If it takes me up until Christmas to decide, it takes until Christmas,” David Krejci said.
https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/david-krejci-breaks-his-silence
Why do you hate Sherpa, LT?
He thinks they have a bad altitude.
I agree with these lines.
So many have Brown with McDavid and there is the “Brown signed to play with McDavid” but, for me, McDavid/Hyman is a proven successful pair and, if we are being honest, Drai needs the proven 2-way forward, Connor Brown, as opposed to the meh 2-way forward Zack Hyman.
I don’t think there will be room for that extra 13F on the roster.
Is it good that the one real battle in camp is the battle for 12F among the likes of Pederson, Lavoie, Sutter and a potential addition PTO or even league min signing?
I like Vinny but I would suggest strictly 7D, as opposed to 3rd pair, for me. Unless something forces a chance, for me, Broberg plays each night and Vinny only plays in a 11/7 set-up and not 6D over Broberg.
That’s my opinion on now it should deploy – at least for the first 6 weeks. The play on the ice will dictate if that deployment needs to be altered but not until Broberg gets a legit 20 games of 14 plus minutes per night – again, just my personal opinion.
By the deadline or opening night?
I am somewhat convinced that Stauffer read the blog and comments. He started the off-season talking about the possibility of Broberg starting in the AHL to get big minutes, he then moved to talking about him maybe seeing some reps up the lineup with Ekholm as the season moves on and, just recently, he talked about the potential for Broberg to START the season in the top 4.
Its tough for me to envision Manson not staring Nurse/Ceci as he’s been remiss to break them up even for a small look since he put them together.
I think we all hope that Broberg presses up.
First things first, get through camp healthy Philip!
Nurse and mainly Ceci failed when it mattered most, against Colorado and Vegas. The definition of insanity…
Imagine if Nurse could skate vs. Colorado and imagine if Ceci could skate vs. Vegas.
Imagine if they didn’t play hobbled players against top comp
I see a pattern with Holland’s 2 Oiler coaches. Can’t play the rookies because they make mistakes, even if they are more talented. Don’t want to ruin their confidence. Can’t play the bottom 6 too much regardless of play. Yet, evidenced by the chronically problematic 5v5 GA, at least when it counts the most, the ‘vets’ are also making mistakes, with no upside
It makes me wonder if Holland has a preference for systems and hires coaches that think the same, but they are wrong about the fit with the roster. They make strides which I’m sure somebody is going to mention, but give it all back when it counts. I think this is fair to say
Nuge was getting crushed these playoffs, but no one in the org could play better? Kane was obviously not able to contribute, no other options? Ceci wasn’t good, he was hurt, but that’s it?
Playoff 5v5, GP, TOI, GF/GA, GF% REL
Forwards
Kane 12 / 208:52 / 7/11 / -14.24
Leon 12 / 203:31 / 14/11 / 16.00
Connor 12 / 201:52 / 10/9 / 7.47
Hyman 12 / 176:10 / 9/6 / 17.14
Nuge 12 / 160:18 / 3/8 / -26.57
Yama 12 / 159:13 / 5/11 / -24.63
Mcleod 12 / 140:49 / 4/5 / -4.34
Bjug 12 / 134:33 / 3/4 / -5.98
Foegele 12 / 129:37 / 3/5 / -12.50
Ryan 11 / 112:31 / 6/3 / 20.95
Kostin 12 / 89:22 / 6/4 / 15.00
Janmark 5 / 33:55 / 2/1 / 25.49
Defense
Bouch 12 / 210:12 / 9/10 / -1.02
Ekholm 12 / 209:19 / 9/9 / 3.13
Nurse 11 / 198:12 / 10/11 / -4.23
Ceci 12 / 185:57 / 6/10 / -15.44
Kulak 12 / 172:18 / 6/4 / 15.00
Des 12 / 134:49 / 4/7 / -14.92
Bro 9 / 59:43 / 4/1 / 40.61
Of course Quality of Comp has to do with this, but what I think is that if you have a lower player playing well, or younger, can they not contribute more in a short span than a player too hurt, or playing poorly? Even if they can’t do it for 82?
How can you have a playoff hero if they don’t get the chance to be one? I am sure Ryan was itching to get higher up and make something happen, watching guys get owned from the bench, and he is more than capable to do it over a few games. He’s a smart hockey mind, he saw what was going on, as he’s let us know before
The usage and results look to me like a coaching group with a plan they won’t deviate from, regardless of results. I get ‘following the system’ and ‘following the plan’, but that is more a regular season thing. When you are in the heat of the battle, winner take all, you do whatever you have to to win, play who is the best option regardless of anything else, or you don’t win, obviously. They did the same sort of things against the Avs
It still irks me Woody had them trying to play a hard game and ‘planting seeds’, which isn’t really the team’s style even if a few players are like that, and with injuries existing and mounting. I think they took themselves off their best game. When I see Connor looking for hits – more than just taking what comes up and finishing checks – I am thinking there’s a coach who has no idea how to win with a player like that. And another one not far behind
Hopefully they learned their lessons, but I don’t see them adapting very quickly so far. For me, being better than the bad before still isn’t enough to settle for. I am also on the side that the improvements made have more to do with maturation of the top players and a few roster upgrades, over anything else
So much like Flattop and the Babcock/Holland tree, despite that he says he’s his own coach. Not playing well enough as a group? Pull out the blender and make them follow the system. So old school, so meh, players hate it and say so
Assuming a player has the tools, confidence is a massive part of how a player performs. Our coaches certainly take the old school view of sheltering a young player to foster confidence. Whereas coaches on other teams will give young players more responsibility against tougher comp and live with the mistakes, provided they are slowly being eliminated. I prefer the latter approach, especially when veterans trusted with the tougher comp are also making mistakes. Show confidence in your players and they will reward you.
It has to be coming from Holland he seems to have no use for developing young players. He trades away half his picks or more. It’s the same style as in Detroit where he had no cap and Pizza money coming out of his owners ass. I think the last Cup he won was in the Sslary Cap era but the team was already cemeted. Holland has had horseshoes he lucks out with the CCCP all-stars then he gets gifted Leon and Connor talk about a man that’s lived a charmed life.
Right, fitting that bloated, no cap, roster under the newly introduced salary cap and winning another cup would have been very easy.
Seems to argue at least one of ‘the pre-cap roster wasn’t that bloated’ and/or ‘Holland did some fine work to get compliant and still win another cup’.
Remember Peter Puck boasted that the Oilers would win a Cup in 5 years and he nailed it. This is year 5 for Holland if he doesn’t get it done then what? If Holland does stick around and can get Leon to sign for max next offseason that would be a real feather in Hollands cap.
One isn’t winning the Cup with Ceci on the top pair. It is time to try something different. Playing it safe, should be the fallback position, not the starting position going forward. Aim higher. Play Broberg with Nurse.
I’m firmly in the camp of running Broberg with greater responsibility until the deadline. The team needs to find out if he can face tougher comp before then, to determine the level of need to spend assets on another D at that point.
It’s time to shit or get off the pot with Broberg. Like Lowetide mentioned he could be traded if they have suspicions that he’s 5-6 Bust.
He will be at least as good as Nurse. Similar skill sets minus the fighting, similar issues. I think he’s a more talented player though, and a better skater
Is he as durable as Nurse? Aside from the high ankle sprain during his rookie season, I think Nurse has missed like one game with injury.
I’m not positive Broberg is a better skater – Nurse is an elite skater – I think Broberg is as well but we haven’t seen it at the NHL level.
We can’t account for future injuries, but Bro is a worry. Nurse is a fast skater but Bieksa (I think but a former NHL D anyhow) doesn’t think Nurse turns well. I see Nurse as not a smooth skater also, but he can get around for sure. Bro is as smooth as butter in 4 directions, so a better skater to me and at least as fast
I haven’t seen Broberg use superior skating ability at the NHL level. Nurse’s ability to get back in the play after being low in the offensive zone and his ability to defend off the rush (he almost never gets beat wide) is pretty elite.
FUI, it wasn’t a high ankle sprain.
Nurse blocked a shot and actually broke the bone and damaged ligaments in his ankle in Dec 2016.
Of course, Nurse/Bouchard and Ekholm/Broberg make the most sense if they are going to elevate Broberg.
“The definition of insanity…” line amuses me in a sports context because a lot of what athletes do is the same task over, and over, and over, and over again. There’s even a name for it – training.
There is nothing wrong with doing the same thing over an over again if it brings good results.
The problem is doing the same thing over and over again after achieving bad results.
i.e. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Thanks Einstein.
As someone who has started investing in digital currency again, specifically XRP prior to the SEC ruling, I would disagree with you.
That is unless the digital currency market and XRP plummets again, then I may agree with you.
On another note A-I will be doing Oiler analytics within 5-7 years. Watch what you wish for it’s coming fast.
I agree that the Oilers start camp with Skinner penciled in as the opening night starter and the #1 guy. At the same time, I suspect the coaching staff is planning on a tandem, a 1A/1B structure, and a 45/37 split, or something along those lines.
Skinner starts camp in the pole position but I don’t think he’s a lock for game 1 starter.
————————
Pickard is a high end AHL goaltender and clearly the guy that gets called up if their is an injury but this has to start as a 50/50 split between Pickard and Rodrigue, right? The real prospect needs to start half the games, unless something forces a chance, one way of the other, right?
I know you haven’t given up on Campbell unlike a strong contingent in these parts. Keep the faith Brother if we can get a 1-2 punch of a combined 910 save percentage in today’s free wheeling game I’ll be happy. I really think the rock Ekholm ( Huddy) and his partner will take the heat off the Nurse pairing solidifying the entire back-end.
I haven’t seen enough of Jeff Petry to know if this is worthwhile, but would a package of Kulak, Lavoie, and a fifth for Petry and 50% retained be something worth pursuing?
It would give a nice balance of right/left, Broberg plays the 3LD spot with Ceci. But not sure if Petry could play top pair with Nurse.
Petry at 50% would only be $2.344M too, so $400k cheaper than Kulak. That would likely open up enough space that they could run 22 players (there would be ~$1.55M for the 21st and 22nd roster spots if Bouchard signed for $3.9M).
I like opening up a clear spot for Broberg to play as well, though I’d guess it’s highly likely Edmonton is on Petry’s no trade list.
Not sure I would do a Kulak for Petry (50% retention) trade straight up, nevermind adding someone like Lavoie. Not to mention it sounds like Petry has no interest in suiting up for Montreal, so they are just looking for anyone to take him off their hands for free. Hard pass on that deal.
Interesting.
Age erosion over the next 2 seasons would obviously be a concern, but Petry played more and tougher minutes than Kulak did last season, and his results were equal or better on a worse team.
Combine that with him actually being ~$400k cheaper (if at 50% retained) and playing a position of more need, I would definitely entertain that (larger) trade if available.
I agree though that he’s probably not interested in a return to the Oilers.
Age erosion is my primary concern with a trade like that. If Petry had only one year left on his deal I’d maybe consider it for the reasons you’ve laid out. He’s turning 36 less than halfway through this season, so if things go south I’m not sure what the exit ramp is other than buyout or attaching assets to him in a trade. I just think the risk is too high for the limited reward.
Yeah, I guess I’m having a hard time seeing much risk if his AAV is only $2.35M. And I think there is a pretty substantial amount of upside in terms of roster improvement at that number.
Take Lavoie out and sure. If Petry was 27 or something I’d would consider giving up a much needed big offensive forward with edge, but Jeff is way too old for that. They seem to be looking for upgrades of certain player types, maybe Foegele would be interesting to them. Or Kulak and Foegele and make some cap room to do even more
Not Kenny’s MO though. He doesn’t get too excited when competing GMs with some skills do amazing deals that solve problems and get things they want. I am not a Dubas fan, but the Karlsson deal was slick. Even if he’s copying his thing from Toronto – come in with a big expensive splashy contract. Pretty slick that he usurped POHO and GM too. He must be some talker
Kent Hughes / Gorton just crushed in that deal, only took 800K and a bit in cap and got rid of Hoffman, got a solid trade chip in Petry, a goalie with an above average SV%, a French prospect and a 2nd, and only gave up a mediocre Rem Pitlick. Beauty piece of work there
Easily the best work of the offseason.
San Jose not so much.
I meant to say Ceci. Petry would take his spot and for the better
I agree it’s unlikely Broberg is moved. In addition to the reasons you list, I don’t think there’s much precedence for Ken Holland including Broberg in a trade.
I just had a look back at his trades and Schaefer might be the only young first round pick he’s ever traded. In terms of former high picks who had already played an NHL game (like Broberg and Holloway), I don’t think there were any.
It seems likely that Broberg will get every opportunity to fully develop as an Edmonton Oiler.
It seems likely that Broberg will get every opportunity to fully develop as an Edmonton Oiler.
================
The question I have for you is what does that look like?
Nurse is here forever and Ekholm has three more years. Barring injury both look to be locks for top four LD for some time to come. Broberg is 22 and a top ten draft pick. I don’t think they had 3LD in mind when they made that decision.
So what does Broberg’s development path look like to you if he remains an Edmonton Oiler?
A Nurse trade would open up a path to top 4 🙂
Nurse has a NMC until 2027 and his contract is loaded with $6 million signing bonuses for the final 4 years.
Pretty much buyout proof.
It was a joke
For me it’s:
1) Get reps as an every day 3rd pair Dman (not just one of 7D) like he was for 15-20 games in Dec/Jan last year
2) Transition to the right side (that could be immediately or later)
3) Injury/performance fill-in for the top 4, either side as opportunities arise
4) Eventual transition to the top 4. Most likely on the right side (though Ekholm could also move over, for instance). Timeline will depend on Broberg, Ceci and injuries. Could be as early as this season, potentially as late as Ceci’s deal expiring (end of the following season).
So RD is Broberg’s future in Edmonton?
I am not disagreeing or even saying it is a bad plan but I have read miles of messages on this blog about handedness for dmen.
I think it is.
And despite what you’ve read, there are more lefties than righties in the player pool, so many D play on their off side.
Some do it better than others, and it’s something Broberg had on his resume, at least, when he arrived in North America. (I know you know all of that but figured it might still be worth saying 😉 )
As you said I know all of that. I just thought it was important to clarify that that is what Holland is thinking about when he says Broberg is on his mind.
I agree with you that Broberg will be given every opportunity to develop with the Oilers but with the caveat that the leash is fairly short given their cup aspirations.
Some of that depends on Ceci and how he does this coming season but when I look for team weaknesses, strengths and trade chips it is a short list and Broberg’s name has to be part of that list depending on how things are looking come February.
Nobody likes to trade 22 year old high potential dmen but expectations are high for this team this season. I wouldn’t write it off.
We can’t ‘know’, but I think what Holland is thinking about is how to get Broberg the appropriate minutes to develop (obviously while also icing the best team possible).
And you’re right that Broberg has to be part of the asset list. It true the list isn’t all that long, but it does include 24 1st, 25 1st, 26 1st, Bourgault, 24 2nd, 26 2nd who I’d think are more likely pieces out than Broberg.
Can’t disagree with any of that but this is Broberg’s big year imo. He missed last year forcing the trade for Ekholm when he wasn’t ready.
I have been saying for two years that the 23-24 season was peak opportunity for the cup.
I expect a level of ruthless assessment from management leading up to trade deadline decisions this year.
Yeah, that’s definitely fair. And if they are approaching to a determination that Broberg won’t be able to fill a top 4 role in the future then no question he would move up the asset trade list.
I don’t think we’re (they’re) anywhere close to that kind of assessment though, hence my opinion that all the trade chips I listed (and perhaps even a couple I didn’t) are more likely to be moved than Broberg.
I could also be completely wrong, of course 🙂
I wouldn’t say that Broberg missed last season. I think he was coming along very nice – the talk about him being “untouchable” even started back up mid-season.
This miss was Kulak not being able to play at a legit 2LD level nightly (and the PK losing games).
Broberg was coming along nicely but didn’t have the experience to be tried up the lineup quite yet and part of that was the organization not giving him the reps the prior season (as some had suggested they needed to).
Agree with pretty much all of this including #1 – legit reps from game 1 this season, in a 6D, 3 pairing set-up, not in a 7D set-up.
Sergachev was stuck behind Hedman and McDonagh forever, until last season. During that time he anchored the 3rd pair, and moonlighted in the top 4 on the right hand side.
One of the perks of a very talented roster & competent drafting is that they could afford to do that. Not a lot of teams that could resist the temptation to fill a hole of greater need.