Per 82 games in his long NHL career, Sam Gagner averages 16-26-42. He scored eight goals in 48 games a year ago. His five-on-five goals-60 (.73) was a strong number and his expected goals in the discipline (52 percent) represents success. Gagner was announced as a PTO signing yesterday by the organization. Can he make it? Does he have a better chance than Brandon Sutter? Where will he play?
Richard Pracey's hiring by the Oilers as amateur scouting director has been followed by the usual stories, anecdotes and lore to backfill for the curious. A look at the maddening vagueness of evaluating a move like this, and what we know for sure today. https://t.co/edg5PQh58o
DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
SAM GAGNER Q& A
What do you think? I think he has a better chance of making the team than Brandon Sutter.
Why? He played in the NHL last season. The numbers above from Puck IQ show some good work, with a dangerous Fenwick over 50 percent.
He didn’t score much. You’re right, 1.21 pts-60 at five-on-five is not a strong total. The .73 goals-60 in the discipline is a positive. I like to look at the most recent three seasons. In that time, Gagner holds a 1.33 pts-60 and .56 goals-60 total. I think he’s worth an invite.
Who will he replace? Logic suggests the Oilers will carry 12 forwards, so Gagner is up against Sutter, Lane Pederson, Raphael Lavoie, Drake Caggiula and James Hamblin.
Will he win the job? He could. Gagner has NHL experience, and is wildly popular in Edmonton with fans and players based on all available information.
Is he one dimensional? Yes. He doesn’t get power-play time anymore and he is not known for his PK work. He was not among the top PK men in Detroit based on possession and suppression numbers in 2021-22, although he played more than any other forward.
Weird. Yeah. I agree. I’d love to know why the coaching staff did it. He spent 191 minutes on the PK in 2021-22, never more than 76:36 in any year before. Or after.
What will the fourth line look like? Gagner with Mattias Janmark and Derek Ryan.
Is Gagner better offensively than those two men? Gagner’s 1.21 pts-60 at five-on-five in Winnipeg a year ago is slightly below Janmark (1.40) and Ryan (1.32) but in the range. It’s complicated though.
Why? While playing with Kyle Connor (1.8 pts-60 in 200 minutes) Gagner posted good totals. While playing with Morgan Barron (0 points in 73 minutes) nothing rhymed. I suspect Gagner’s offense would spike should he play the season with Edmonton.
Is this a Ken Holland move? No, I think this would be Jeff Jackson initiating and or finalizing. Jackson would have been part of it based on the ties that bind.
Holland wouldn’t have done it? I’m not saying that at all. I’m saying this invite was accepted post-Jackson hiring, so we have to view it through that lens. Holland may well have reached out and the two sides may have agreed. I think Jackson had a hand in it, can’t say for certain.
Are you surprised the Oilers didn’t extend Holland? No.
Why? I think something happened last season.
What? I don’t know. About the time a contract would have been discussed (July 2022 through April 2023) the team went through some things. Holland wasn’t aggressive during the season in adding help when injuries hit. It was surprising, and that could have been a breaking point. It’s also possible Holland didn’t want another contract.
Timeline. October 9 the team makes the deal for Klim Kostin. November 9, Evander Kane is hurt and placed on the injured list. Kostin and Mattias Janmark are recalled. November 27, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod are hurt. December 5, Warren Foegele is hurt and Yamamoto comes back into the lineup. Yamamoto is ineffective and then eventually goes on LTIR in January.
So? Somewhere in there, I believe, the die was cast. Daryl Katz may have made his decision before, but that area of the season was the point a more aggressive general manager could have emade a difference. Won the division? Won Stanley? Don’t know.
Why was Holland hesitant? Because the Oilers are bleeding out their assets.
Is that why Pracey is here? Yes. Oilers have to go now, lickety-split.
I love it when you get technical. Edmonton bled Dmitri Samorukov, 2023 first-round pick, Reid Schaefer and Mike Kesselring in-season 2022-23.
Well they got back a ton! Sure. Mattias Ekholm was a great acquisition, I believe it will be remembered for a long time. However, what if the Oilers have to bleed four more assets this season?
What do you mean? Let’s say Holland needs to dump Jack Campbell at the deadline and bring in another goaltender. Let’s say the 2024 first-round selection, Xavier Bourgault and Max Wanner are the ask, with the rights to Maxim Berezkin thrown in. Where does that leave Edmonton’s pipeline? You can’t keep doing that kind of thing without bringing in some youth in return.
What has to happen? At the top end, the Oilers badly need all of Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie to work their way into NHL roles this season.
And then? Pracey and his staff have to be aggressive in procuring young talent. Even now, the team has invited Brady Stonehouse to rookie camp. That kind of player could matriculate and the Oilers badly need young talent pushing up. Not everyone is going to make it, but you need assets at the deadline. Edmonton is in a spot of bother here.
So Lavoie is more likely to win the job than Gagner? Or Holland trades Lavoie for a pick that is useful. Injuries will impact this decision too, but for me Lavoie playing well and holding back Gagner, Sutter and the others is the most likely scenario.
Was Gagner a disappointing No. 6 overall pick? I think the Oilers were a disappointing team and Samwise was part of it. I think it began a chain of transactions that led to this player toiling in the lower reaches of the NHL for his entire career. I think 11 playoff games across these years is too few by many. His first Oilers playoff game will be the next one. If he is on the team that wins the sixth Stanley, well, that would be a wonderful final chapter in a career with so many twists and turns.
A lot of chaff about Holland today. Usual stuff I guess – but you absolutely cannot under-estimate the impact of the COVID cap restrictions on the Oilers. Sure everyone is effected, but the percentage of the cap taken up by the top-end Oilers players has been essentially static instead of dropping every year as expected. So the Oilers have been effected more given the date that McDavid and Drai’s salaries kicked in. IMHO Holland has done a good job with this, others may disagree, but he’s been pretty damn creative in building a roster around the superstars with a bunch of top 6 guys signed to team friendly deals (Kane, RNH, Brown) and even Hyman has out-performed.
As for the prospects. I don’t have much sadness for who was dealt. None of them have turned into world-beaters and some were turned into useful short-term assets (Sammy for Kostin and Kesselring for Bjugstad last year). I don’t think people realize how close we were to winning last spring. I think we have 3 years left after including this one to win as I expect that Drai will extend for one year to stay with McDavid until his contract ends. If both guys walk at the end of that season with cups in hand I will do nothing but thank them for their service and entertainment.
Perhaps the best analogue for the Oilers under Holland is the Dallas Stars under Nill.
Both have had to deal with a couple of pricey contracts that were expected to have reduced impact as the cap kept rising but Nill was also hampered by declining production of Seguin and Benn although both looked much better last season.
Nill, though, has managed to build one of the best #1 lines in the game despite that and has filled out his roster with superb drafting and smart signings.
That he’s been able to do this without sacrificing significant draft or prospect capital is pretty remarkable.
The Stars didn’t trade away their 1st round pick since 2009 until this past draft which they traded for former 1st round Ranger pick RHD Nils Lundqvist who immediately made the Stars roster.
While the Oilers have been bleeding picks and prospects, the Stars, as Pronman pointed out this week, have a bevy of some of the best prospects in the league.
So they go into the new season with a full 23 man roster, clean cap with no dead money and were able to add Matt Duchene, Craig Smith and Sam Steel to a team that went to the Conference Final last season.
I like to compare Holland to the GMs in Vancouver that have made such a mess that their star player is essentially admitting to the league that he is walking after this season.
The Canucks have made a masterclass of how not to run a franchise, while Holland has built a team that is a strong contender for the Cup this season.
Oilers have definitely been a little screwed by the flat cap more than most teams. Pittsburgh for instance has had the Cap basically double during Crosby’s contract.
AsiaOil
August 29, 2023 8:20 pm
I seem to remember that PTO can continue into the regular season? If yes, then there is no reason to not keep Sam around and skating with the club. How long they can pull this off without the league suggesting cap avoidance is interesting. Sam is recovering from surgery so they could probably legitimately string the PTO along to Christmas if they wanted. If Sam is here as he probably has no other offers given his situation. Will be interesting to watch and I’d bet his PTO goes past TC.
I think there’s a pretty legitimate chance that both Gagner and Sutter end up signing and playing in Bakersfield until there’s a need (and if they’ve shown worthy of a call).
I think the projected Condors roster already has at least the max amount of veterans (if not more) that can play in a game – I’m not sure that two more will be added – maybe though.
I doubt either want to spend any time in beautiful Bakersfield for relative pocket change. I could however see them hanging around and working themselves into shape over the first month or two and then getting onto the roster when/if an injury hits.
No I just wasn’t able to edit the previous post so added one more line. Gags and Sutter have no need or desire to ride buses for peanuts in Bakersfield. They are very rich men and successful pros who are taking a PTO to get one last chance at something money can’t buy – a championship ring. Sam has deep ties to the organization and Sutter is just a bloody good fit.
Few guys with their track records are going to the AHL and ride buses on the faint hope of a recall. Demers did it last year to get his 700th game – but he’s an exception – probably more to the story as he was just hanging on to his career for years. If a spot opens up in TC or the first month of the season Gags or Sutter might have a chance – but I doubt either leaves their family to live in Bakersfield like Demers last year.
OmJo
August 29, 2023 7:27 pm
The Golden Knights only had 4 picks in the draft following their Cup win. The Avalanche had 2. The Lightning had 7 picks in 2021 (3 of which were 7th Round), and 9 in 2020 (no 1st Round). The Blues had 5 picks in 2019, 2 of which were 7th Round picks.
The last team to win a Stanley Cup and draft in the first round weeks later was the Capitals in 2018. The next recent were the Kings in 2014, and the Blackhawks in 2013. Three teams (out of 8) in the last decade won a Cup while retaining their First Round Pick.
Trading the first round pick seems like a necessary evil for winning a cup, so if the Oilers do it for the next two seasons, I will not complain (as long as the return is reasonable ofc).
Trading TWO first round picks and Kesselring was an expensive deadline. If the first and (say) Bourgault are gone this deadline, there’s not much left.
It’s EXTREMELY early in the Oilers window to win (now two years old) to be running out of bullets.
Ah, now I see where we disagree. I don’t think it is early in the Oilers window to win. I think the early window to win was 5 years ago but due to massive blunders by Holland’s predecessors it sailed by without notice.
Holland inherited a floundering shipwreck and it cost full retail to put it back on track. I think that is where we see things differently. We are not in the early years of the Oilers window to win. We are more than halfway through.
The Oilers weren’t in the window to win five years ago. They are now.
I’m not saying don’t trade the firsts, I’m saying use the 50-man to sign free agents coming out of college. And good ones. Oilers aren’t in the game and they need to be. Remember how many kids signed as college free agents played for the Penguins over the years?
Perhaps Edmonton isn’t a preferred destination for those college free agents (many of which are American)? Oilers can’t offer more, they are subject to the ELC parameters.
Holland has signed a couple, Fanti and Berglund – yup, they are not real prospects (well, Berglund isn’t) but this suggests Holland is shopping in that aisle but its likely the “bigger names” aren’t looking to join this org.
No, they weren’t in the window five years ago – because of massive management incompetence.
But that was when their window should have opened with two players of McDavid & Draisaitl’s abilities. It took Holland years to fix the mess and those were the wasted years that should have been the early window.
I’m not attacking Holland. I’m arguing for procurement at the entry level. If you sign a legit talent now, he might be worth something at the deadline in 2024 or 2025. Edmonton needs assets, and frankly they need some of these kids who look promising but have no pedigree to cash.
LT the two first round picks are essentially early second rounders given their position. That is peanuts for Ekholm. Look at guys drafted #23 and #32 over the past 10 years and tell me you would not trade them for about 300 games of Ekholm? Of course you would. Barrie was just cap space who was more than fully replaced on the roster by Ekholm and Bouchard moving up.
As for Kesselring, he’s not guaranteed to be anything, even in ARZ where he’s in tough to make the roster. But let’s look at it another way. We traded a 6th round pick for 31 NHL games of Bjugstad. The median NHL games played for a 6th round pick in the NHL in Kesselring’s draft year is ZERO and it’s not close. The most is 64 NHL games and Bjugstad’s 31 Oiler NHL games places him 4th on the overall list. He might finish top 5 on that list at the end of the day but no worse than 6th or 7th. I trade an undeveloped 6th rounder for a real NHL player who could help you win a cup every day of the week (and Bjugstad did help).
Kostin deal was the same. Great asset management to get about 70 NHL games for a guy who will probably never play 5. Too bad we could not have kept Klim but the deal is still a win. Same with Bear and Jones as it turns out. Holland converted guys with limited long-term potential into higher value short-medium term help (Keith and Foegle). Same with Kulak…would you not trade Lane Hudson (who?) and a 7th round lottery ticket for 4 years of Kulak? Of course you would. Holland is not perfect – no one is – and some of his early deadline deals were not great. But he seems to have improved substantially the last couple of seasons and the Oilers are a legit contender. Are we not entertained?
I’m not arguing this trade deadline, it went well. I think Holland had a helluva year. I’m saying you can’t keep doing it every year because at some point no one wants your shit. You have to give at least some value.
The point isn’t that Kesselring might turn into anything. The point is a team wanted him. Oilers don’t have enough of them.
They could sign a couple of free agents. Maybe they develop, maybe they don’t. I think there’s room here for two or three free agents.
but wait, I thought the Oilers needed to be “all in – every year”…….. of course, that’s not feasible, for the reasons you state – but its a requirement for some.
Trading TWO first round picks and Kesselring was an expensive deadline.
Sure, but the return was 4 deadlines long – Ekholm fills a hole that won’t need to be plugged again until 2026-27 (if Broberg hasn’t grown into that role by then). That’s significant and warrants a mention.
If Bourgault + 1st brings in a star player in a position of team need who is under contract at a reasonable rate for 4 more years, that’s likely well worth the price paid.
And what a f*ck ton of teams have traded their 1st and not won the Cup.
2022 Panthers traded 3 of them IIRC, as a for instance.
OmJo
August 29, 2023 6:57 pm
Will have to disagree with you on a few things.
I don’t know. About the time a contract would have been discussed (July 2022 through April 2023) the team went through some things. Holland wasn’t aggressive during the season in adding help when injuries hit. It was surprising, and that could have been a breaking point. It’s also possible Holland didn’t want another contract.
The Oilers also did not have cap space to make any significant moves during the injuries, unless they wanted to pull a Golden Knights/Lightning cap circumvention move and keep Kane out of action until Game 1 of the playoffs.
And while I admit you are much more “in the know” than I will ever be, I think it is a reasonable assumption to conclude that Holland’s contract with Edmonton was intended by all parties to be his last. So I don’t think his lack of an extension is indicative of any off-ice drama between him and ownership.
He was aggressive when he had to be (ie, the trade deadline) and that helped the Oilers to be the best [or at least second best] team(s) in the second half of the regular season.
Let’s say Holland needs to dump Jack Campbell at the deadline and bring in another goaltender. Let’s say the 2024 first-round selection, Xavier Bourgault and Max Wanner are the ask, with the rights to Maxim Berezkin thrown in. Where does that leave Edmonton’s pipeline? You can’t keep doing that kind of thing without bringing in some
youth in return.
There is no way Jack Campbell would ever cost that much, nor would the Oilers even entertain the offer. Unless he has the worst season in goaltending history.
I do agree the Oilers should be looking at other areas of procurement outside of the draft, though. But then they are competing with upwards of 31 other teams, and they need to compete with other incentives other than money since they are dealing with ELCs and everybody is on an even playing field in terms of contract offers.
Every team is not on an even playing field in attracting free agents.
Increasingly players and their agents are looking at easier pathways to an NHL job along with an analysis of the teams minor league system and amenities.
One major disadvantage for the Oilers has become having their farm team in Bakersfield which is certainly not a prime destination.
Several players who signed in Abbotsford last season mentioned that they chose to sign with Vancouver because even in the AHL, they had access to the Canucks facilities, medical and training staff and multiple development coaches as well as knowing the big league team had their eyes closely on them.
Kuzmenko mentioned all of these things when he signed,
You have to wonder when Katz will consider relocating the Condors as other Canadian teams have done.
You could have saved yourself so many words if you just read the entire sentence you are referring to…
But then they are competing with upwards of 31 other teams, and they need to compete with other incentives other than money since they are dealing with ELCs and everybody is on an even playing field in terms of contract offers.
In return, I did not bother reading your post after your first sentence 🙂
Not sure there is rink time for 3 teams in Edmonton. I do agree that having prospects closer to the team benefits everyone including fans. How much more aware would most people be if the Condors played here. For players the better facilities, instructors and exposure should help.
OriginalPouzar
August 29, 2023 2:31 pm
One thing to keep in mind when discussing the “13th forward” that would start the year in Bakersfield and be called up in the case of injury, well, the Oilers won’t have cap space to call anyone up for a short term injury replacement in the normal course.
In order to call up a player as an injury replacement:
1) the injured player(s) will need to be out long enough for LTIR placement (10 games and 3 weeks);
2) the Oilers will have played short a game (17 skaters) due to cap reasons and a player (max of league min + $100K) called up on an emergency basis; or
If I recall, I think when Lavoie signed his deal, there were a few who thought because he didn’t take the league minimum, that if Lavoie starts in the minors, he priced himself out of being an emergency recall if someone on the Oilers gets injured and only goes on regular IR and not LTIR. But because the league minimum has been raised to $775,000 this season, his contract at $874,125 is just under the limit you note in item 2) so he would be eligible.
So if the Oilers go down a forward, first step is to run 7/11. If they want to replace the injured forward with another forward for a few games and go with 6/12, they can send Broberg down without waiver risk to recall a forward, though I am not saying or suggesting they would do that. Desharnais, I imagine, would be risky on waivers unless his performance really drops off.
If two forwards go onto IR, they play 10/7 for a game, then can recall any forward currently projected to be in the AHL, except for Berglund, Bourgault and Savoie. At least I assume that’s the case, unless they count ELC potential bonuses in the emergency recall calculation. The Oilers gave Grubbe a small performance bonus which puts him over the $875,000 possibly to get him to sign rather than him going back to the draft. No defenseman projected to start in the minors has an NHL salary more than that $875,000 maximum for emergency recall.
Do you happen to know if the rules are the same if its an emergency recall for a goalie? Do they have to play one game with the back up being somebody signed as the emergency back up, or can they recall Pickard immediately. And Pickard is probably the obvious first choice for the recall right now, but is Fanti out as an emergency recall because his NHL salary $883,000.
The other thing about running short is there is no competition in the bottom 6 for ice time. The Oilers can run 11-7 (leaving 1 spot up for grabs) or in case of injury.
I thought last year the team was flat without meaningful roster competition at the start of the year. Jay had no hammer to lay down. If you have 2 guys bubbling under you can pop in at any time, that keeps a fire lit under the rest of the bottom six.
The reality is injury is part of hockey so I don’t mind KH kicking the salary can down the road a ways. He did it last year. It’s honestly probable that someone gets hurt in TC or early in the season that solve the cap issues for the year.
John Chambers
August 29, 2023 12:41 pm
I could see Gagner playing a “Jason Demers” role where he spends time in the AHL but comes up to play NHL games when needed.
NHL contract. He’d clear waivers.
Lavoie should start the season on the big club with Gagner mentoring in Bakersfield until injuries hit.
Well in playoffs there is no cap so the enticement would be injury fill in time for a chance at a cup. I agree that traveling ahl style most of the year would not be plus.
DBO
August 29, 2023 11:54 am
Foegele. McLeod. Ryan
Janmark. Holloway. Gagner
More balanced. Lavoie could also slide in. Some protection for the kids and the vets get speedy with them to offset their slowness (Ryana and gagner).
Man, if Ralph Lavoie can’t beat out a 34-year old Sam Gagner coming off double hip surgery and essentially rehabbing, not training, all summer…..
That third line has some real legs to it. McLeod/Foegele are forming a very good duo and Ryan was great with them in the playoffs.
At the same time, I think I have to give Holloway the shot there (and reduce Ryan’s overall minutes a bit, due to managing load).
I do have ALOT of time for Holloway as the 4C except I just don’t think that Woody will commit to giving that line enough 5 on 5 minutes and, with limited or no special teams, there isn’t enough for Holloway.
defmn
August 29, 2023 10:20 am
What will the fourth line look like? Gagner with Mattias Janmark and Derek Ryan.
===================
That is not a line so much as a group of players imo. I know it is just a fourth line and it probably doesn’t matter that much for the regular season but this is not a cup contending 4th line.
I think they will be able to formulate a better fourth line than that with all the players eyeing a role somewhere on the roster. Competition is a wonderful thing.
Gagner was the only one who took on dirty Gio even though he was out of of his weight class. I give the man full respect. Nurse and Kassian amoung others nothing but crickets, embarrassing.
OriginalPouzar
August 29, 2023 9:48 am
What has to happen? At the top end, the Oilers badly need all of Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie to work their way into NHL roles this season.
Injuries aside:
1) Holloway is a lock for the team and it would be surprising if he isn’t able to solidify himself as at least a solid 3LW (on a line with McLeod and Foegele) with upside. Will he pop like Mercer? Maybe not but I think he can make a positive impact.
2) Broberg has already proven he can provide solid minutes in a 3rd pairing role, even move the needle on that role. There is lots of talk about him moving up the lineup, even to start the season. Stauffer started mentioning it a month ago (I truly think he got the idea from reading this blog) and, while Bob has been on vacation, Escott has been all over it as well.
The only hesitation to my locking Broberg in as a higher impact player is the previous commitment of the coaching staff to Vinny D. over Broberg. I hope that was circumstance related (i.e. PP) and the staff comes to the conclusion that Vinny really is a 7D and Broberg is the stud with upside.
3) Its on Lavoie – there is an opening night forward spot open for competition. Play well and its yours, at least to start the season – one step at a time!
I think the ability to play multiple positions is valuable with this group of Oiler forwards, especially for the young guys like Holloway & Lavoie. Could be the difference between making the team or not making the team. Fortunately for Holloway he apparently is capable of playing all three forward positions, I believe Lavoie probably can too. If these two youngsters can break out, they could solidify the forward group even more. I find it fascinating.
Holloway has LW and C pedigree – I don’t recall him taking any shifts at RW at Wisconsin or Bakersfield (although its not a stretch to think he could shift over – would rather keep him on his more comfortable side at this time).
I’ve read/heard many suggest that Lavoie can play center but he does not have that pedigree. He did fill in at center in the Q for like 5-6 games when they were injury riddled but, other than that, he’s been a pure winger and I don’t think there is an iota of a chance he lines up as center in the NHL.
Lavoie is a right shot and likely a natural right wing but I would say that his success as a pro came as a left winger which is where he played last season (for the most part).
Have we seen anything from Lavoie to indicate he can handle work as a pivot?
OriginalPouzar
August 29, 2023 9:43 am
In the last 24 hours I learned that Gagner actually had a solid season analytically (possession numbers and goal share) and his scoring rates were a bit higher than some on the Oilers.
That is heartening.
At the same time, if Ralph Lavoie cannot beat Gagner out of the 12F roster spot, well, I think that would be disappointing.
I mean, its not like Gagner brings right shot center ability, he doesn’t bring high end faceoff ability, he doesn’t bring high end PK ability, he isn’t a high end 2-way forward and, importantly, he doesn’t bring medium or long term upside.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a solid pro and had a good career and is likely a good depth piece but, at the same time, he doesn’t bring any special skill that to fill a hole, he’s another depth piece and the hope has to be that Ralph Lavoie, a player with real upside, can win that job.
It’s great to hear that his surgery was a success and that he’s pain free.
I wonder if they would consider trying Lavoie out as a 4c along with Holloway, Pederson, Sutter and possibly Gagner. It sure will be an interesting training camp, can’t wait.
I can easily see them emptying the cupboards this year at the deadline though. Connor Brown’s cap hit getting punted to next year has put the onus squarely on this year to reel in a cup. There’s no more “We’ll get em next year” in this organization now.
That’s not very Medicine Hat neighbourly. Could it also be another tell that his Son isn’t taking over the reins?
Pretendergast
August 29, 2023 9:34 am
Don’t want to get too repetitive but I disagree it’s bleeding assets.
Would say trade chains like Ebs to Strome to Spooner that we’re used to ended up net negative. I believe the Ekholm trade and most free agent signings have been a net positive in asset value. It’s not pennies to penthouses but Kenny has incrementally improved this team every year. It is not perfect (Campbell, Yams Kostin dump), but the past 2-3 years have been the best Oiler teams i’ve ever seen.
Cap flexibility hasn’t existed for years (unexpectedly) so teams without top end talent contracts (Canes come to mind) have had a competitive edge. That should be mitigated a bit with the projected jump next year so situations like Nurse bridges to Brinks trucks can be reduced. If only Bouch had 1 more year, should’ve sat him again (I kid).
I agree with this. Besides there are multiple ways to build teams. Every team needs to constantly update and adjust their strategy based on multiple variables, including many we aren’t privy to as fans. Bleeding value doesn’t help but I don’t believe Holland has done that much as you say.
The degree to which there hasn’t been cap flexibility has hurt every team, but I’m going to argue it hurts the Oilers, the team with the best player in the league, the most.
In the 5 seasons before McDavid’s current contract kicked in, the cap went from $64.3M to $79.5M – about 24%. In the five years since McDavid’s current contract kicked in, the cap went from $79.5M to $83.5M – about 5%. If Covid hasn’t blown the economics out of the water and the cap increased at the same pace, it’d be about $98.3M today and project to about $116M in the last year of McDavid’s contract. That would have McDavid occupying about 10% of the cap in his last year. McDavid’s contract is always going to be a value contract, but man would it have been a smokin’ good deal at that price.
When you view Holland’s tenure in that context, I think it’s actually really impressive. The last year of course will have a lot to say about how he’s remembered in Edmonton.
Sooner or later, you run out of spare parts people find useful. Pittsburgh has been on fumes for years now. The Oilers could sign CHL or college free agents and possibly strike gold. The current path is a road to ruin. Just terrible roster management.
Have they made any NHL impact though? Or been useful trade pieces? Maybe I’m missing some Dubas acquisitions from this pool?
Holland could do more there I guess, but am I correct in thinking Haas and Nygard have played more NHL games in the last 4 seasons than players Dubas has signed from the leagues you mention?
That’s fair, there was at least one quality European UFA signing.
Holland definitely didn’t have any successes like that as Oiler GM (though had Kuzmenko chosen the Oilers this would quite a different conversation I guess).
The Saviour Holland burned though a nice stable of D-men Peter, Peter, Pumkin Eater left him. Holland has also burned through a full satchel of draft picks. This team should have the farm bubbling with talent. Just one example why was a 3rd involved in the Keith trade
Would Caleb Jones or Ethan Bear make the roster? Maybe Bear as the 3RD in place of Vinny but I’d prefer Broberg.
I was a Samorukov fan the Oilers got full value in that trade and Sammy was available for a league min 2-way NHL contract (he only has an AHL deal right now) if they wanted him back.
Who else?
Marino? Zero chance he was signing here and the Holland got a depth pick and a prospect that “has a LaChance”.
Larsson? The Oilers tried hard to keep him, even offered him the over-pay contract that Seattle signed him to.
Kesselring I’ll give you – I didn’t like his inclusion in the trade and expressed that on the day of.
Kostin was about to be a UFA as he was not going to be qualified – given your opinion on Yamamoto, getting out of that contract for free must be considered massive value attributed to Kostin, no?
You have a higher opinion of the value of a 3rd round pick than I do. The league is scattered with guys who made the show from way back in the draft or even didn’t get drafted but it is a very, very small percentage of the total.
Most of them, if they make it, can be signed as free agents in August for around league minimum.
I’m all in trade away but get some value for these picks. From all the picks what do we have to show for it (Ekholm) why giveaway 3rds to your buddies? You trade a 2nd and 3rd and say a Foegele at the draft you actually get a real roster player. He could of parlayed those 7-8 Defenceman that Peter left him into a real top 4 D and a 3rd line Centre. Either get value are stock up the pipeline. Don’t make bad bets just to show the public your all in.
Holland got Foegele for Bear. At the time many claimed there was a loss of talent but subsequent events turned out differently. Jones couldn’t keep his job in Chicago even with his brother there to pull strings and is now on a minimum salary contract that probably sees him in the AHL come October. Marino was unfortunate. I don’t know if there was a better trade available or not but the player held all the cards. Kessilring has yet to play out but he is in tough in Arizona. Samorukov got Kostin which looks to me like a win.
I don’t see how any of those guys translates into a top 4 dman even if you packaged them all together in a 5 for 1 trade.
Do you think ever G.M can predict how players are going to turn out. The stable Peter left Holland had way more value at the time. We hit on Kostin then Holland turns around and gives him to little Stevie. Where’s the Willy Lindstrom, ken linesman, Kent Nillision instead we get Bumstead for a cup of coffee for Kesserling who has a better than good chance of panning out. Should of tried Lavoie who was on a heater and has shown he comes through in the Playoffs.
They get a new set of trading chips every June with the draft. 1st and 2nd round draft picks always have value and I maintain that because the management of this team was so abysmal for so long the runway for Holland was always going to be shorter than it should have been.
The only years that really count are the next few. If they win the Cup it extends, if they don’t there was nothing anybody was ever going to be able to so anyway.
Sure, but you’re going to need to add players to that first-round selection. Edmonton had four assets, including two firsts, at the deadline. Why not try to maximize the college, Euro and CHL free agency route?
I guess I value those less than you. To me the league has changed as the top end talent grabs all the money from a stagnant cap so that the waiver wire and the UFA pool are more attractive for a team that sees itself as contending.
16 college free agent players were signed to NHL contracts this offseason.
3-VAN
3-COL
2-NYI
PHI
STL
LA
CAR
NSH
WIN
FLA
EDM – Berglund
This offseason they farmed it more than an average team (if you can call it that)
I see 4 ahl deals for Bakersfield. Looks to be about average but happy to be wrong, AHL has different agendas at times (eg.vets who can take tougher shifts off the kids)
We agree Kenny has traded too many picks and lost players because salary. I just cant agree losing a 5th and some 2nds along the way in a chase for Stanley is terrible roster management.
Carolina lost a prospect for a test drive of JP. Detroit bought out Yamamoto after paying nothing to get him. LA sent a first out for 2 assets that never returned. Poor asset management or bets that didn’t work out in the pursuit of winning? Boston hasn’t paid the piper for some truly awful drafting. I’m ranting again, I think a sole focus on the Oil obscures how they are doing with their peers. Can it be better? Sure. Is it terrible? I don’t see it.
I find this interesting. My take is you think Holland is a good or better GM. But this comment suggests the opposite
I see him as stable (which is good), can see competent players (even if fading or not exactly what is needed) and almost always does the obvious easier thing. He also doesn’t seem to get quite to a balanced roster. And is not a good negotiator on important items. Anyone can pay too much and get what they want and grind people with no options
I think he took swings and missed (thanks Archie) but things are improved since his son started helping on the pro side.
Holland’s AHL team is stocked now with a few prospects, a bunch of guys who were signed from other NHL teams who are AHL regulars (Gleason, Hoefenmayer) and some AHL contracts.
The traded picks, the Russians who aren’t coming over, the prospects who are being dealt every deadline and the kids since 2019 not yet in prominent spots.
Oilers are on 43 contracts. Either the team is being bullied out of amateur free agency or there’s no desire to find gems. Berglund and Fanti aren’t strong prospects. I will give them credit for Noah Philp, that was a helluva deal.
Pretendergast
August 29, 2023 9:31 am
The storyline I run with is Holland signed a 5 year deal for obscene money as a golden parachute and ‘last ride’ before he retires. $25M in the bank and one last push to cement your legacy with the greatest player ever? Sign me up.
Since he’s calling it quits in my mind, the organization gave him the directive to succession plan. There is no way Katz would allow his business to be without answers going into next offseason while prime 97 (see:golden goose) is here with a new deal needed on the horizon.
When Kenny’s book is written 10 years from now we’ll get answers, or Seravalli will leak everything.
Correct, greatest I had was a bit of the end of Forsberg (post cups) then Crosby. Not taking 97 for granted by the way people talk about your mentions.
Here we go another fan that believes his history only matters. It’s all on Utube Gretzky busting down the wing blasting a Howitzer over Vernon shoulder in double OT. How about Gretzky scoring off the face-off against St.Louis. I could go on and on with special Goals by Gretzky as well as the sheer number. This is all on U-tube check it out we actually had the greatest team ever. My Team and City also won 5 Cups should of been 8-10 isn’t that exciting?
I genuinely have no idea what you’re talking about. Said I’m savouring 97’s reign because of how awesome it sounds like it was for you and others to be around to enjoy greatness while it was in Etown. I want to be able to tell stories like you just did some day. Bizarre.
The Ranger Goal will never be forgotten the Columbus Goal as well. I have and I’m going to enjoy every game Connor and Leon play. This could be Leon last year if he tells management he’s moving on hopefully not. I think there’s something to Connor, Leon, Nurse, Hyman, and RNH all being loyal to each other and keeping the band together.
rocket
August 29, 2023 9:15 am
Allan: If Steve Staois moves on to Ottawa (big IF); Do you believe Jackson will bring someone “new” to be the next GM?
I thought Staios has already quietly either been let go or quit. That was the word from connected sources after the Jackson hire.
cowboy bill
August 29, 2023 9:05 am
if Sammy can’t make the team, he can always retire as an Oiler. That might be what this PTO is all about. Then he can trade in his skates & stick for a suit & tie and work somewhere in the organization.
Gagner seems like injury insurance primarily. Gagner is like another version of Ryan, except not as versatile or as good defensively. Since they aren’t really carrying extra forwards, it depends if he is willing to go to the AHL and wait for someone to get injured to free up an opening.
A lot of chaff about Holland today. Usual stuff I guess – but you absolutely cannot under-estimate the impact of the COVID cap restrictions on the Oilers. Sure everyone is effected, but the percentage of the cap taken up by the top-end Oilers players has been essentially static instead of dropping every year as expected. So the Oilers have been effected more given the date that McDavid and Drai’s salaries kicked in. IMHO Holland has done a good job with this, others may disagree, but he’s been pretty damn creative in building a roster around the superstars with a bunch of top 6 guys signed to team friendly deals (Kane, RNH, Brown) and even Hyman has out-performed.
As for the prospects. I don’t have much sadness for who was dealt. None of them have turned into world-beaters and some were turned into useful short-term assets (Sammy for Kostin and Kesselring for Bjugstad last year). I don’t think people realize how close we were to winning last spring. I think we have 3 years left after including this one to win as I expect that Drai will extend for one year to stay with McDavid until his contract ends. If both guys walk at the end of that season with cups in hand I will do nothing but thank them for their service and entertainment.
Perhaps the best analogue for the Oilers under Holland is the Dallas Stars under Nill.
Both have had to deal with a couple of pricey contracts that were expected to have reduced impact as the cap kept rising but Nill was also hampered by declining production of Seguin and Benn although both looked much better last season.
Nill, though, has managed to build one of the best #1 lines in the game despite that and has filled out his roster with superb drafting and smart signings.
That he’s been able to do this without sacrificing significant draft or prospect capital is pretty remarkable.
The Stars didn’t trade away their 1st round pick since 2009 until this past draft which they traded for former 1st round Ranger pick RHD Nils Lundqvist who immediately made the Stars roster.
While the Oilers have been bleeding picks and prospects, the Stars, as Pronman pointed out this week, have a bevy of some of the best prospects in the league.
So they go into the new season with a full 23 man roster, clean cap with no dead money and were able to add Matt Duchene, Craig Smith and Sam Steel to a team that went to the Conference Final last season.
I like to compare Holland to the GMs in Vancouver that have made such a mess that their star player is essentially admitting to the league that he is walking after this season.
The Canucks have made a masterclass of how not to run a franchise, while Holland has built a team that is a strong contender for the Cup this season.
Pretty nice to see.
Oilers have definitely been a little screwed by the flat cap more than most teams. Pittsburgh for instance has had the Cap basically double during Crosby’s contract.
I think there’s a pretty legitimate chance that both Gagner and Sutter end up signing and playing in Bakersfield until there’s a need (and if they’ve shown worthy of a call).
I think the projected Condors roster already has at least the max amount of veterans (if not more) that can play in a game – I’m not sure that two more will be added – maybe though.
Some of those veterans can be moved on if an unexpected addition from above materializes.
I doubt either want to spend any time in beautiful Bakersfield for relative pocket change. I could however see them hanging around and working themselves into shape over the first month or two and then getting onto the roster when/if an injury hits.
Gags and Sutter have both made over $30 million USD in their careers. They don’t want or need an AHL experience.
I feel like you’re arguing with yourself.
If they want to get themselves into shape to play NHL hockey once an injury hits, then Bakersfield is the best place to bide their time.
No I just wasn’t able to edit the previous post so added one more line. Gags and Sutter have no need or desire to ride buses for peanuts in Bakersfield. They are very rich men and successful pros who are taking a PTO to get one last chance at something money can’t buy – a championship ring. Sam has deep ties to the organization and Sutter is just a bloody good fit.
Few guys with their track records are going to the AHL and ride buses on the faint hope of a recall. Demers did it last year to get his 700th game – but he’s an exception – probably more to the story as he was just hanging on to his career for years. If a spot opens up in TC or the first month of the season Gags or Sutter might have a chance – but I doubt either leaves their family to live in Bakersfield like Demers last year.
The Golden Knights only had 4 picks in the draft following their Cup win. The Avalanche had 2. The Lightning had 7 picks in 2021 (3 of which were 7th Round), and 9 in 2020 (no 1st Round). The Blues had 5 picks in 2019, 2 of which were 7th Round picks.
The last team to win a Stanley Cup and draft in the first round weeks later was the Capitals in 2018. The next recent were the Kings in 2014, and the Blackhawks in 2013. Three teams (out of 8) in the last decade won a Cup while retaining their First Round Pick.
Trading the first round pick seems like a necessary evil for winning a cup, so if the Oilers do it for the next two seasons, I will not complain (as long as the return is reasonable ofc).
Trading TWO first round picks and Kesselring was an expensive deadline. If the first and (say) Bourgault are gone this deadline, there’s not much left.
It’s EXTREMELY early in the Oilers window to win (now two years old) to be running out of bullets.
Ah, now I see where we disagree. I don’t think it is early in the Oilers window to win. I think the early window to win was 5 years ago but due to massive blunders by Holland’s predecessors it sailed by without notice.
Holland inherited a floundering shipwreck and it cost full retail to put it back on track. I think that is where we see things differently. We are not in the early years of the Oilers window to win. We are more than halfway through.
The Oilers weren’t in the window to win five years ago. They are now.
I’m not saying don’t trade the firsts, I’m saying use the 50-man to sign free agents coming out of college. And good ones. Oilers aren’t in the game and they need to be. Remember how many kids signed as college free agents played for the Penguins over the years?
This isn’t reinventing the wheel.
Colorado has signed 6 undrafted NCAA grads in the last two off seasons.
Perhaps Edmonton isn’t a preferred destination for those college free agents (many of which are American)? Oilers can’t offer more, they are subject to the ELC parameters.
Holland has signed a couple, Fanti and Berglund – yup, they are not real prospects (well, Berglund isn’t) but this suggests Holland is shopping in that aisle but its likely the “bigger names” aren’t looking to join this org.
No, they weren’t in the window five years ago – because of massive management incompetence.
But that was when their window should have opened with two players of McDavid & Draisaitl’s abilities. It took Holland years to fix the mess and those were the wasted years that should have been the early window.
This is prime time.
Yep..this year and next.
After that, the Draisaitl and Bouchard contracts will bite hard and the core will start to age out.
I’m not attacking Holland. I’m arguing for procurement at the entry level. If you sign a legit talent now, he might be worth something at the deadline in 2024 or 2025. Edmonton needs assets, and frankly they need some of these kids who look promising but have no pedigree to cash.
LT the two first round picks are essentially early second rounders given their position. That is peanuts for Ekholm. Look at guys drafted #23 and #32 over the past 10 years and tell me you would not trade them for about 300 games of Ekholm? Of course you would. Barrie was just cap space who was more than fully replaced on the roster by Ekholm and Bouchard moving up.
As for Kesselring, he’s not guaranteed to be anything, even in ARZ where he’s in tough to make the roster. But let’s look at it another way. We traded a 6th round pick for 31 NHL games of Bjugstad. The median NHL games played for a 6th round pick in the NHL in Kesselring’s draft year is ZERO and it’s not close. The most is 64 NHL games and Bjugstad’s 31 Oiler NHL games places him 4th on the overall list. He might finish top 5 on that list at the end of the day but no worse than 6th or 7th. I trade an undeveloped 6th rounder for a real NHL player who could help you win a cup every day of the week (and Bjugstad did help).
Kostin deal was the same. Great asset management to get about 70 NHL games for a guy who will probably never play 5. Too bad we could not have kept Klim but the deal is still a win. Same with Bear and Jones as it turns out. Holland converted guys with limited long-term potential into higher value short-medium term help (Keith and Foegle). Same with Kulak…would you not trade Lane Hudson (who?) and a 7th round lottery ticket for 4 years of Kulak? Of course you would. Holland is not perfect – no one is – and some of his early deadline deals were not great. But he seems to have improved substantially the last couple of seasons and the Oilers are a legit contender. Are we not entertained?
I’m not arguing this trade deadline, it went well. I think Holland had a helluva year. I’m saying you can’t keep doing it every year because at some point no one wants your shit. You have to give at least some value.
The point isn’t that Kesselring might turn into anything. The point is a team wanted him. Oilers don’t have enough of them.
They could sign a couple of free agents. Maybe they develop, maybe they don’t. I think there’s room here for two or three free agents.
but wait, I thought the Oilers needed to be “all in – every year”…….. of course, that’s not feasible, for the reasons you state – but its a requirement for some.
Sure, but the return was 4 deadlines long – Ekholm fills a hole that won’t need to be plugged again until 2026-27 (if Broberg hasn’t grown into that role by then). That’s significant and warrants a mention.
If Bourgault + 1st brings in a star player in a position of team need who is under contract at a reasonable rate for 4 more years, that’s likely well worth the price paid.
EKholm is four deadlines long, but his performance will erode. We can’t know when that player will slide down the depth chart.
And what a f*ck ton of teams have traded their 1st and not won the Cup.
2022 Panthers traded 3 of them IIRC, as a for instance.
Will have to disagree with you on a few things.
The Oilers also did not have cap space to make any significant moves during the injuries, unless they wanted to pull a Golden Knights/Lightning cap circumvention move and keep Kane out of action until Game 1 of the playoffs.
And while I admit you are much more “in the know” than I will ever be, I think it is a reasonable assumption to conclude that Holland’s contract with Edmonton was intended by all parties to be his last. So I don’t think his lack of an extension is indicative of any off-ice drama between him and ownership.
He was aggressive when he had to be (ie, the trade deadline) and that helped the Oilers to be the best [or at least second best] team(s) in the second half of the regular season.
There is no way Jack Campbell would ever cost that much, nor would the Oilers even entertain the offer. Unless he has the worst season in goaltending history.
I do agree the Oilers should be looking at other areas of procurement outside of the draft, though. But then they are competing with upwards of 31 other teams, and they need to compete with other incentives other than money since they are dealing with ELCs and everybody is on an even playing field in terms of contract offers.
Every team is not on an even playing field in attracting free agents.
Increasingly players and their agents are looking at easier pathways to an NHL job along with an analysis of the teams minor league system and amenities.
One major disadvantage for the Oilers has become having their farm team in Bakersfield which is certainly not a prime destination.
Several players who signed in Abbotsford last season mentioned that they chose to sign with Vancouver because even in the AHL, they had access to the Canucks facilities, medical and training staff and multiple development coaches as well as knowing the big league team had their eyes closely on them.
Kuzmenko mentioned all of these things when he signed,
You have to wonder when Katz will consider relocating the Condors as other Canadian teams have done.
You could have saved yourself so many words if you just read the entire sentence you are referring to…
In return, I did not bother reading your post after your first sentence 🙂
Not sure there is rink time for 3 teams in Edmonton. I do agree that having prospects closer to the team benefits everyone including fans. How much more aware would most people be if the Condors played here. For players the better facilities, instructors and exposure should help.
One thing to keep in mind when discussing the “13th forward” that would start the year in Bakersfield and be called up in the case of injury, well, the Oilers won’t have cap space to call anyone up for a short term injury replacement in the normal course.
In order to call up a player as an injury replacement:
1) the injured player(s) will need to be out long enough for LTIR placement (10 games and 3 weeks);
2) the Oilers will have played short a game (17 skaters) due to cap reasons and a player (max of league min + $100K) called up on an emergency basis; or
3) of course, moving real cap out.
If I recall, I think when Lavoie signed his deal, there were a few who thought because he didn’t take the league minimum, that if Lavoie starts in the minors, he priced himself out of being an emergency recall if someone on the Oilers gets injured and only goes on regular IR and not LTIR. But because the league minimum has been raised to $775,000 this season, his contract at $874,125 is just under the limit you note in item 2) so he would be eligible.
So if the Oilers go down a forward, first step is to run 7/11. If they want to replace the injured forward with another forward for a few games and go with 6/12, they can send Broberg down without waiver risk to recall a forward, though I am not saying or suggesting they would do that. Desharnais, I imagine, would be risky on waivers unless his performance really drops off.
If two forwards go onto IR, they play 10/7 for a game, then can recall any forward currently projected to be in the AHL, except for Berglund, Bourgault and Savoie. At least I assume that’s the case, unless they count ELC potential bonuses in the emergency recall calculation. The Oilers gave Grubbe a small performance bonus which puts him over the $875,000 possibly to get him to sign rather than him going back to the draft. No defenseman projected to start in the minors has an NHL salary more than that $875,000 maximum for emergency recall.
Do you happen to know if the rules are the same if its an emergency recall for a goalie? Do they have to play one game with the back up being somebody signed as the emergency back up, or can they recall Pickard immediately. And Pickard is probably the obvious first choice for the recall right now, but is Fanti out as an emergency recall because his NHL salary $883,000.
Do you happen to know if the rules are the same if its an emergency recall for a goalie?
99.9% sure that the requirement of playing a game short before an emergency recall is allowed does not apply to goalies.
The other thing about running short is there is no competition in the bottom 6 for ice time. The Oilers can run 11-7 (leaving 1 spot up for grabs) or in case of injury.
I thought last year the team was flat without meaningful roster competition at the start of the year. Jay had no hammer to lay down. If you have 2 guys bubbling under you can pop in at any time, that keeps a fire lit under the rest of the bottom six.
The reality is injury is part of hockey so I don’t mind KH kicking the salary can down the road a ways. He did it last year. It’s honestly probable that someone gets hurt in TC or early in the season that solve the cap issues for the year.
I could see Gagner playing a “Jason Demers” role where he spends time in the AHL but comes up to play NHL games when needed.
NHL contract. He’d clear waivers.
Lavoie should start the season on the big club with Gagner mentoring in Bakersfield until injuries hit.
Seems weird to me that he’d want to do that. He’s a very wealthy guy and his wife is a doc
Perhaps he really wants a shot at the Cup
Well in playoffs there is no cap so the enticement would be injury fill in time for a chance at a cup. I agree that traveling ahl style most of the year would not be plus.
Foegele. McLeod. Ryan
Janmark. Holloway. Gagner
More balanced. Lavoie could also slide in. Some protection for the kids and the vets get speedy with them to offset their slowness (Ryana and gagner).
Man, if Ralph Lavoie can’t beat out a 34-year old Sam Gagner coming off double hip surgery and essentially rehabbing, not training, all summer…..
That third line has some real legs to it. McLeod/Foegele are forming a very good duo and Ryan was great with them in the playoffs.
At the same time, I think I have to give Holloway the shot there (and reduce Ryan’s overall minutes a bit, due to managing load).
I do have ALOT of time for Holloway as the 4C except I just don’t think that Woody will commit to giving that line enough 5 on 5 minutes and, with limited or no special teams, there isn’t enough for Holloway.
What will the fourth line look like? Gagner with Mattias Janmark and Derek Ryan.
===================
That is not a line so much as a group of players imo. I know it is just a fourth line and it probably doesn’t matter that much for the regular season but this is not a cup contending 4th line.
I think they will be able to formulate a better fourth line than that with all the players eyeing a role somewhere on the roster. Competition is a wonderful thing.
Gagner was the only one who took on dirty Gio even though he was out of of his weight class. I give the man full respect. Nurse and Kassian amoung others nothing but crickets, embarrassing.
Injuries aside:
1) Holloway is a lock for the team and it would be surprising if he isn’t able to solidify himself as at least a solid 3LW (on a line with McLeod and Foegele) with upside. Will he pop like Mercer? Maybe not but I think he can make a positive impact.
2) Broberg has already proven he can provide solid minutes in a 3rd pairing role, even move the needle on that role. There is lots of talk about him moving up the lineup, even to start the season. Stauffer started mentioning it a month ago (I truly think he got the idea from reading this blog) and, while Bob has been on vacation, Escott has been all over it as well.
The only hesitation to my locking Broberg in as a higher impact player is the previous commitment of the coaching staff to Vinny D. over Broberg. I hope that was circumstance related (i.e. PP) and the staff comes to the conclusion that Vinny really is a 7D and Broberg is the stud with upside.
3) Its on Lavoie – there is an opening night forward spot open for competition. Play well and its yours, at least to start the season – one step at a time!
I think the ability to play multiple positions is valuable with this group of Oiler forwards, especially for the young guys like Holloway & Lavoie. Could be the difference between making the team or not making the team. Fortunately for Holloway he apparently is capable of playing all three forward positions, I believe Lavoie probably can too. If these two youngsters can break out, they could solidify the forward group even more. I find it fascinating.
Holloway has LW and C pedigree – I don’t recall him taking any shifts at RW at Wisconsin or Bakersfield (although its not a stretch to think he could shift over – would rather keep him on his more comfortable side at this time).
I’ve read/heard many suggest that Lavoie can play center but he does not have that pedigree. He did fill in at center in the Q for like 5-6 games when they were injury riddled but, other than that, he’s been a pure winger and I don’t think there is an iota of a chance he lines up as center in the NHL.
Lavoie is a right shot and likely a natural right wing but I would say that his success as a pro came as a left winger which is where he played last season (for the most part).
Have we seen anything from Lavoie to indicate he can handle work as a pivot?
In the last 24 hours I learned that Gagner actually had a solid season analytically (possession numbers and goal share) and his scoring rates were a bit higher than some on the Oilers.
That is heartening.
At the same time, if Ralph Lavoie cannot beat Gagner out of the 12F roster spot, well, I think that would be disappointing.
I mean, its not like Gagner brings right shot center ability, he doesn’t bring high end faceoff ability, he doesn’t bring high end PK ability, he isn’t a high end 2-way forward and, importantly, he doesn’t bring medium or long term upside.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a solid pro and had a good career and is likely a good depth piece but, at the same time, he doesn’t bring any special skill that to fill a hole, he’s another depth piece and the hope has to be that Ralph Lavoie, a player with real upside, can win that job.
It’s great to hear that his surgery was a success and that he’s pain free.
I wonder if they would consider trying Lavoie out as a 4c along with Holloway, Pederson, Sutter and possibly Gagner. It sure will be an interesting training camp, can’t wait.
No chance – Lavoie is a pure winger.
Remember when people were clamoring for Taylor Hall to play center??😆
I do. Lots of talk about Mess at that time.
Ryan Smyth.
Ouch.
I can easily see them emptying the cupboards this year at the deadline though. Connor Brown’s cap hit getting punted to next year has put the onus squarely on this year to reel in a cup. There’s no more “We’ll get em next year” in this organization now.
Holland knew it was his last year he punted 3 million cap to his replacement.
I’d say that’s likely
That’s not very Medicine Hat neighbourly. Could it also be another tell that his Son isn’t taking over the reins?
Don’t want to get too repetitive but I disagree it’s bleeding assets.
Would say trade chains like Ebs to Strome to Spooner that we’re used to ended up net negative. I believe the Ekholm trade and most free agent signings have been a net positive in asset value. It’s not pennies to penthouses but Kenny has incrementally improved this team every year. It is not perfect (Campbell, Yams Kostin dump), but the past 2-3 years have been the best Oiler teams i’ve ever seen.
Cap flexibility hasn’t existed for years (unexpectedly) so teams without top end talent contracts (Canes come to mind) have had a competitive edge. That should be mitigated a bit with the projected jump next year so situations like Nurse bridges to Brinks trucks can be reduced. If only Bouch had 1 more year, should’ve sat him again (I kid).
I agree with this. Besides there are multiple ways to build teams. Every team needs to constantly update and adjust their strategy based on multiple variables, including many we aren’t privy to as fans. Bleeding value doesn’t help but I don’t believe Holland has done that much as you say.
The degree to which there hasn’t been cap flexibility has hurt every team, but I’m going to argue it hurts the Oilers, the team with the best player in the league, the most.
In the 5 seasons before McDavid’s current contract kicked in, the cap went from $64.3M to $79.5M – about 24%. In the five years since McDavid’s current contract kicked in, the cap went from $79.5M to $83.5M – about 5%. If Covid hasn’t blown the economics out of the water and the cap increased at the same pace, it’d be about $98.3M today and project to about $116M in the last year of McDavid’s contract. That would have McDavid occupying about 10% of the cap in his last year. McDavid’s contract is always going to be a value contract, but man would it have been a smokin’ good deal at that price.
When you view Holland’s tenure in that context, I think it’s actually really impressive. The last year of course will have a lot to say about how he’s remembered in Edmonton.
Sooner or later, you run out of spare parts people find useful. Pittsburgh has been on fumes for years now. The Oilers could sign CHL or college free agents and possibly strike gold. The current path is a road to ruin. Just terrible roster management.
And yet, Pittsburgh just landed the biggest trade fish of the off season. And is poised to make the playoffs once again.
Dubas is a damned genius.
And he’s left Toronto and Pittsburgh’s draft picks and farm systems in immaculate shape.
😎
He signs free agents from college, CHL and Europe. Oilers used to do it, too.
Have they made any NHL impact though? Or been useful trade pieces? Maybe I’m missing some Dubas acquisitions from this pool?
Holland could do more there I guess, but am I correct in thinking Haas and Nygard have played more NHL games in the last 4 seasons than players Dubas has signed from the leagues you mention?
Ilya Mikheyev is the one I remember best.
That’s fair, there was at least one quality European UFA signing.
Holland definitely didn’t have any successes like that as Oiler GM (though had Kuzmenko chosen the Oilers this would quite a different conversation I guess).
In his own mind. He pushed all in on Tavares. If one blows oneself up, it doesn’t matter if 90% of your bets are right. A genius doesn’t sign Tavares.
Same thing with Karlsson. Comes in and makes a splashy trade and gets a few guys. Cap be damned
They will be better. Good enough? I doubt it
I will admit that is getting Karlsson at a good price. But Grier had limited options.
Have to disagree with this.
From my perspective the conversation that led to Holland being hired was pretty straightforward.
Get the Cup before the Draisaitl/McDavid contracts expire.
Every decision made in the last four years flows from that directive.
And they’re going to run out of things to trade by deadline 2024
That’s fine though LT. Because they’ll be hoisting the cup by June 2024 😉.
The Saviour Holland burned though a nice stable of D-men Peter, Peter, Pumkin Eater left him. Holland has also burned through a full satchel of draft picks. This team should have the farm bubbling with talent. Just one example why was a 3rd involved in the Keith trade
Would Caleb Jones or Ethan Bear make the roster? Maybe Bear as the 3RD in place of Vinny but I’d prefer Broberg.
I was a Samorukov fan the Oilers got full value in that trade and Sammy was available for a league min 2-way NHL contract (he only has an AHL deal right now) if they wanted him back.
Who else?
Marino? Zero chance he was signing here and the Holland got a depth pick and a prospect that “has a LaChance”.
Larsson? The Oilers tried hard to keep him, even offered him the over-pay contract that Seattle signed him to.
Kesselring I’ll give you – I didn’t like his inclusion in the trade and expressed that on the day of.
What did we get for Kostin Holland again feeds his adopted Son.
Kostin was about to be a UFA as he was not going to be qualified – given your opinion on Yamamoto, getting out of that contract for free must be considered massive value attributed to Kostin, no?
You have a higher opinion of the value of a 3rd round pick than I do. The league is scattered with guys who made the show from way back in the draft or even didn’t get drafted but it is a very, very small percentage of the total.
Most of them, if they make it, can be signed as free agents in August for around league minimum.
I’m all in trade away but get some value for these picks. From all the picks what do we have to show for it (Ekholm) why giveaway 3rds to your buddies? You trade a 2nd and 3rd and say a Foegele at the draft you actually get a real roster player. He could of parlayed those 7-8 Defenceman that Peter left him into a real top 4 D and a 3rd line Centre. Either get value are stock up the pipeline. Don’t make bad bets just to show the public your all in.
Holland got Foegele for Bear. At the time many claimed there was a loss of talent but subsequent events turned out differently. Jones couldn’t keep his job in Chicago even with his brother there to pull strings and is now on a minimum salary contract that probably sees him in the AHL come October. Marino was unfortunate. I don’t know if there was a better trade available or not but the player held all the cards. Kessilring has yet to play out but he is in tough in Arizona. Samorukov got Kostin which looks to me like a win.
I don’t see how any of those guys translates into a top 4 dman even if you packaged them all together in a 5 for 1 trade.
Do you think ever G.M can predict how players are going to turn out. The stable Peter left Holland had way more value at the time. We hit on Kostin then Holland turns around and gives him to little Stevie. Where’s the Willy Lindstrom, ken linesman, Kent Nillision instead we get Bumstead for a cup of coffee for Kesserling who has a better than good chance of panning out. Should of tried Lavoie who was on a heater and has shown he comes through in the Playoffs.
They get a new set of trading chips every June with the draft. 1st and 2nd round draft picks always have value and I maintain that because the management of this team was so abysmal for so long the runway for Holland was always going to be shorter than it should have been.
The only years that really count are the next few. If they win the Cup it extends, if they don’t there was nothing anybody was ever going to be able to so anyway.
It’s ‘everybody into the pool’ time.
Sure, but you’re going to need to add players to that first-round selection. Edmonton had four assets, including two firsts, at the deadline. Why not try to maximize the college, Euro and CHL free agency route?
I guess I value those less than you. To me the league has changed as the top end talent grabs all the money from a stagnant cap so that the waiver wire and the UFA pool are more attractive for a team that sees itself as contending.
16 college free agent players were signed to NHL contracts this offseason.
3-VAN
3-COL
2-NYI
PHI
STL
LA
CAR
NSH
WIN
FLA
EDM – Berglund
This offseason they farmed it more than an average team (if you can call it that)
I see 4 ahl deals for Bakersfield. Looks to be about average but happy to be wrong, AHL has different agendas at times (eg.vets who can take tougher shifts off the kids)
We agree Kenny has traded too many picks and lost players because salary. I just cant agree losing a 5th and some 2nds along the way in a chase for Stanley is terrible roster management.
Carolina lost a prospect for a test drive of JP. Detroit bought out Yamamoto after paying nothing to get him. LA sent a first out for 2 assets that never returned. Poor asset management or bets that didn’t work out in the pursuit of winning? Boston hasn’t paid the piper for some truly awful drafting. I’m ranting again, I think a sole focus on the Oil obscures how they are doing with their peers. Can it be better? Sure. Is it terrible? I don’t see it.
I find this interesting. My take is you think Holland is a good or better GM. But this comment suggests the opposite
I see him as stable (which is good), can see competent players (even if fading or not exactly what is needed) and almost always does the obvious easier thing. He also doesn’t seem to get quite to a balanced roster. And is not a good negotiator on important items. Anyone can pay too much and get what they want and grind people with no options
I like the sanity but had hoped for more jazz
I think he took swings and missed (thanks Archie) but things are improved since his son started helping on the pro side.
Holland’s AHL team is stocked now with a few prospects, a bunch of guys who were signed from other NHL teams who are AHL regulars (Gleason, Hoefenmayer) and some AHL contracts.
The traded picks, the Russians who aren’t coming over, the prospects who are being dealt every deadline and the kids since 2019 not yet in prominent spots.
Oilers are on 43 contracts. Either the team is being bullied out of amateur free agency or there’s no desire to find gems. Berglund and Fanti aren’t strong prospects. I will give them credit for Noah Philp, that was a helluva deal.
The storyline I run with is Holland signed a 5 year deal for obscene money as a golden parachute and ‘last ride’ before he retires. $25M in the bank and one last push to cement your legacy with the greatest player ever? Sign me up.
Since he’s calling it quits in my mind, the organization gave him the directive to succession plan. There is no way Katz would allow his business to be without answers going into next offseason while prime 97 (see:golden goose) is here with a new deal needed on the horizon.
When Kenny’s book is written 10 years from now we’ll get answers, or Seravalli will leak everything.
Obviously you didn’t grow up with the Great One are Bobby Orr. Mario was no slouch as well.
Correct, greatest I had was a bit of the end of Forsberg (post cups) then Crosby. Not taking 97 for granted by the way people talk about your mentions.
Here we go another fan that believes his history only matters. It’s all on Utube Gretzky busting down the wing blasting a Howitzer over Vernon shoulder in double OT. How about Gretzky scoring off the face-off against St.Louis. I could go on and on with special Goals by Gretzky as well as the sheer number. This is all on U-tube check it out we actually had the greatest team ever. My Team and City also won 5 Cups should of been 8-10 isn’t that exciting?
I genuinely have no idea what you’re talking about. Said I’m savouring 97’s reign because of how awesome it sounds like it was for you and others to be around to enjoy greatness while it was in Etown. I want to be able to tell stories like you just did some day. Bizarre.
The Ranger Goal will never be forgotten the Columbus Goal as well. I have and I’m going to enjoy every game Connor and Leon play. This could be Leon last year if he tells management he’s moving on hopefully not. I think there’s something to Connor, Leon, Nurse, Hyman, and RNH all being loyal to each other and keeping the band together.
Allan: If Steve Staois moves on to Ottawa (big IF); Do you believe Jackson will bring someone “new” to be the next GM?
I thought Staios has already quietly either been let go or quit. That was the word from connected sources after the Jackson hire.
if Sammy can’t make the team, he can always retire as an Oiler. That might be what this PTO is all about. Then he can trade in his skates & stick for a suit & tie and work somewhere in the organization.
Gagner seems like injury insurance primarily. Gagner is like another version of Ryan, except not as versatile or as good defensively. Since they aren’t really carrying extra forwards, it depends if he is willing to go to the AHL and wait for someone to get injured to free up an opening.
Better Gagner than Virtanen. Character matters.
100%
Better that Lavoie comes to camp and just takes the job with a strong performance.
That has to be the hope – that’s the ideal situation – Come on kid!
That’s a wonderful finish LT
and thank you for answering my Q from a number of days ago