Lane Pederson doesn’t have the look of a leading man in this year’s edition of Edmonton Oilers training camp. You can create a strong case for him winning the No. 4 center job but I’m not sure anyone believes it. Why?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why Oilers still need to find inexpensive, effective depth players
- Lowetide: What to expect from Oilers rookies, led by Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Evander Kane, Connor Brown and the Oilers’ aging skill wingers
- Lowetide: Making the early call on the Edmonton Oilers’ 2019 NHL Draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers 2023-24 complete reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: What should Oilers fans expect from new scouting director Richard Pracey?
- Lowetide: How will Tyler Wright’s time with the Oilers be remembered?
- Lowetide: Is trading Philip Broberg in the Oilers’ future?
- Lowetide: Unpacking Oilers’ decision to hire Rick Pracey, part ways with Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: 9 bold Edmonton Oilers predictions for 2023-24
- Lowetide: The NHL offseason’s 5 most risky moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: USHL has produced some of NHL’s top talent. Is it hockey’s best junior league?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and their dilemma at centre
- Lowetide: NHL teams that are best positioned to take advantage of the 2024 free-agent watershed
- Lowetide: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
LANE PEDERSON
This is the PuckIQ player card for Pederson during his 11 NHL games with the Vancouver Canucks last season. He was deployed as one would expect, with fewer minutes against the elites, more (and better) results against mid- and grit-level competition. His CF%RC overall isn’t terrible and his Dangerous Fenwick comes out surprisingly well in the wash. He’s a fringe NHL player based on this graph. He scored 1.37 pts-60 at five-on-five and had an expected goal share of 51 percent with the Canucks. I think he could play NHL games for the Oilers this season.
A few more minutes five-on-five with the Columbus Blue Jackets, his results imply the Jackets also worked on keeping him in a depth role. He owned a 1.08 pts-60 five-on-five and a 48 percent expected goal share. As a group we have mostly ignored Pederson and that’s predictable. I think there are players who have the same level of ability who have played far more NHL games than Pederson since he turned pro, but that’s not the same thing as saying he deserves to be employed in the world’s best league.
Q AND A
- Do you have Pederson making the Oilers? Yes I do, and I have him playing most of the season in Edmonton. The projections are here.
- Where do you have him playing? Fourth line center, between Mattias Janmark and Derek Ryan. I think both Sam Gagner and Raphael Lavoie also play, but Pederson as a RH center gets the coveted role still available on this roster.
- How good was he in the AHL last season? He posted 1.09 pts-game and a 53 percent even-strength goal share, and that is the best in the group chasing an NHL job with Edmonton this fall.
- Better than Lavoie? Lavoie isn’t a center.
- Yeah but they’re applying for the same job. No, they are applying for the same roster spot. I think the Oilers will choose Lavoie if he has a strong preseason, but Pederson’s chances are pretty good as of this morning. A RH center has value.
- Does he win faceoffs? 49 percent in just over 300 NHL faceoffs.
- Is he similar to Sam Gagner? I think he’s faster and more versatile (he can play center) but Gagner in his prime was far more skilled. Now? I think both can make the team but Pederson will be the pivot.
- Who is in the mix for that last NHL spot with Edmonton? Pederson is joined by Gagner, Brandon Sutter, Lavoie, Drake Caggiula and James Hamblin.
- Oilers blew this, they needed to be playing someone in Bakersfield last season who was a RH center and poised to make the leap. You mean Noah Philp? Oilers had the guy, but he retired. I can’t blame management for it. I do wonder if management contemplates the why and the how and puts in place some kind of safety net. Who knows how long Philp was having issues? Maybe the Oilers organization was on top of it all down the line, but a review of what happened and an upgrade to best practices (if applicable) is probably the right call.
- You wrote about Nolan Patrick today, would he impact Pederson’s chances? Yes. 100 percent.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At noon today, Sports 1440, we’ll have Gerry Moddejonge from the Edmonton Sun and Journal. We’ll chat Elks and maybe some Canadian men’s basketball (off to the semis!) and Carl Weathers, the legendary actor who will be in Edmonton September 15-17 for Edmonton Expo (Comics and Entertainment). Day Two, stay tuned!!
Senators sign 21 year old LD Jake Sanderson to an 8 year $8.050 million extension.
Sanderson scored 32 points last season.
Doing it right.
More:
https://www.nhl.com/senators/news/ottawa-senators-sign-defenceman-jake-sanderson-to-eight-year-contract-extension
The next shoe to drop is Jamie Drysdale in Anaheim.
He remains without a contract but his ask will likely be constrained by missing all but 8 games last season.
Im not quite sure how that is doing it right. They took on all of the risk
There is far more risk in dithering.
Ottawa has now locked up its core of Tkachuk, Stuzle, Batherson, Chabot and Sanderson through their prime years.
The Oilers dithered on Nurse and paid the price and they’re doing the same thing with Bouchard and may be forced to do the same with Broberg.
Thing is, the Sanderson contract sets the absolute floor for Bouchard’s next contract and with the cap rising it will be extremely difficult to sign him to a reasonable contract especially since good young D will have massively higher career earnings than he will in two years time.
Yeah, we know. Every other team does it better than the Oilers. We know because we have you here every day telling us. Just go away.
Yep, massive gamble by the team at this point.
Little bit on the Captain’s skates that started yesterday.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-captains-skates-commence-down-at-rogers-place
Apparently all 22 players who played games for the Oilers and are still Oiler property are present (counting the names, that would seem to include Niemalainen, Hamblin and Malone).
Lavoie and Bourgault also in attendance, as are Gagner and Sutter (good to hear they’re sufficiently healed to be playing in advance of camp).
Good on Janmark – I recall him coming back from Europe and arriving on the eve of camp last season – he did not have a good camp, right?
I tried to get a peek yesterday, but the security gate was locked and curtains were drawn. I could hear pucks hitting posts, though.
That must have been Foegele!
Primary Pooints per 60 in the AHL for players 24 & Under with minimum 12 games played.
Holloway and Lavoie look great by this metric.
Pederson looks great if you increase it to 27 and under.
Penguins add Doug Wilson to their management team.
https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/news/doug-wilson-hired-by-pittsburgh-as-senior-adviser
Nail Yakupov on his time with the Oikers
https://oilersnation.com/news/i-never-learned-how-to-play-nail-yakupov-opens-up-on-time-with-edmonton-oilers-pressure-as-first-overall-pick
Dallas Eakins loathed talent, loved the Will Acton and Mark Fraser type players, and STILL thinks he’s right.
The man destroyed careers and opportunities and was allowed to do so.
Still disgusts me.
Deservedly unemployed.
How did MacTavish get sukered in by this wierd dud.
No idea why Anaheim hired him and how he lasted so long there either. And Sportsnet hiring him as an “analyst” for the playoffs last year was rich too.
In my opinion, the biggest issue isn’t goaltending or forward or defence depth. I believe it’s the system they play in their own end. That man to man, or swarm or whatever the terminology is. Personally I’d get back closer to the traditional zone system where defenceman aren’t chasing their men out to the blueline. Have a defencemen in front of the net, rather than relying on a forward. Too many five alarm chances in the slot when the man on man system breaks down.
Paging Dr. Nurse
OMG if they change their D coverage and Nurse is to be a stay at home D man, his value will skyrocket to the point of justifying his cap rate…..he might become a value contract.
Yep. I’m sure the goaltenders would agree.
Have to reduce the HDs. The tradeoff is more D zone time, but this team has shown they cash on a high% of chances in the O zone so a small dip in O zone time won’t have much of an effect on overall GF.
A bit more rope a dope D zone time will likely improve the quality of chances off the rush going the other way.
More than that, reduce the unmeasurable HDs.
By HDCA they were 10th best in the league last season (11.56 HDCA/60). In the playoffs they were essentially tied with Vegas for 6th/7th (12.18 vs. 12.19). And head to head against Vegas they gave up far fewer HDCA (10.67 vs. 14.33).
Yeah they just need to get some goaltending.
Agreed about unmeasurable. The stats don’t match the eye test. The Oilers break stats because of the number of world class breakdowns they commit
I saw no other serious team leaving as many unchecked players in the key, or as many cross seam passes and clean shots on the moving goalie. That has to change or no dice. Great stats, can’t hold a lead at critical times, this is why for me
And it’s the system without doubt. I’m sure it’s the bomb on paper and in coach’s discussions, but if the players can’t play it especially when things are intense, it’s not helping toward winning a Cup
Pretty cynical take. I know I know you’re just calling it like you see it.
Might be seeing something that doesn’t exist though.
So hard when a team isn’t winning the right way.
Yeah, the issue isn’t the number of HDCA, like JP had in his post. I think the issue with the Oilers is that when there is a defensive breakdown leading to an HDCA it is 5-bell, man alone in front of the net bad. Goaltending was easily more the culprit than defense last year on the whole.
Yes!
Lane Pederson is definitely intriguing. I know it’s a super small sample size, but he went on the heater to end all heaters last season in the AHL where he scored 17 goals in 18 games. That’s incredible. And there was only 1 game with 3 goals, scoring in 11 of 18 games in Abbotsford. He’s from S’toon. IT sounds like he did his scoring from the wing, so I’m not sure he’s a 4C option, but as a versatile, cheap 4C, 4RW, he might make it, especially after injuries.
From Sports Forecaster:
“The versatile forward can line up either at center or wing. He skates well and has decent hockey sense, but has to be more consistent and improve his attention to detail in order to make an impression in a league with loads of depth forwards looking for jobs. Adding strength would also help.
Long Range Potential: Versatile depth forward.”
One of the things, I’m not so sure that Lane Pederson is a right shot center. I recall one of the Nation Network guys from Vancouver gave a scouting report and the Canucks didn’t really deploy Pederson as a center.
At the end of the day, I Raphael Lavoie cannot beat out this tweener player for the 12th forward spot then Ralph Lavoie is nothing but a tweener himself.
I don’t think Lane Pederson is an NHL center any more than Janmark is and I think Derek Ryan could play 4C more effectively than Lane Pederson.
Raphael needs to use training camp and earn that opportunity to open the season as 12F, end stop. Then he will need to take steps during the regular season to show he is indeed an NHL player.
This roster needs a progressing Raphael Lavoie – not an end of career Sam Gagner or a tweener mid-career Lane Pederson.
I intentionally leave Brandon Sutter out of the last sentence as he actually does have the ideal skill-set (big, right shot center, proven ability to play against elites, high end PK guy, faceoff guy) – its just unlikely he can still play at this level.
I believe Pederson is a left shot. But with Ryan being a right shot having the two of them taking faceoff’s that’s fine. Playing on the fourth line he won’t be expected to score too many goals however it’s nice to know he has that ability. And then the potential of a big right-shot center, proven ability to play against elites, high end PK guy & faceoff guy. God, I hope Brandon Sutter proves you wrong.
If he’s not expected to contribute, what is he doing on the roster? I mean, he’s not a good defensive player, he’s not a bruiser, he’s not, well, anything.
I don’t know? I do no he’s been around the league and is prepared to buckle down into his role as a fourth line center defensively and he also could contribute offensively as well. He just needs the opportunity to prove himself as a right-handed centerman with the Oil. Don’t count him out . Don’t count Brandon Sutter either . LOL.
NHL aging curves are very steep after age 30, even more so for non-elite talent after 32 years old. Brandon Sutter’s chances are very slim, but as I added the other day he does have a chance.
For context, Manny Malhotra was a similar player and also a FO wizard, LHC, though. He was a 7th overall pick and at 32 he suffered a broken leg and missed of that season. He played 2 more seasons as a Face Off specialist, but his expiry date was basically 3 years expired.
Brandon Sutter is up against Father Time, but maybe Oilers Brass see a role for him as a FO specialist who wins Dzone Draws and gets off the ice ASAP.
In addition to this I figured I could compare the well-known Sutter bros to Brandon to help paint a picture. To my surprise a couple of the retired relatively early.
Brent, drafted #17, 1111 GP, played until he was 35
Ron 4th, 1037, 37
Rich 10th, 874, 32
Brian (Brandon’s Pa), 20th, 779, 31
Brandon, 11th, 770, TBD
Duane 17th, 731, 29
Darryl 179th, 406, 28
The ideal is for Raphael Lavoie to outright win the 12F spot on merit and performance. He still has a chance to be a middle of the roster player on the Oiler going forward but, if he’s cut, yet again, out of camp, well, that door is likely closed and he isn’t that guy.
At the same time, the ideal skill-set that the forward group needs is a 6’3, right shot center, with a history of limiting goals against playing weak comp that is great on the faceoff circle and a plus PK guy.
Good info on the Maholtra comparison but, If I remember correctly, Sutter was barely hanging on to an NHL career prior to missing two full seasons with long term health issues. He was regressing hard on-ice and having trouble staying healthy and in the lineup.
I’m intrigued by how he might perform but not expecting much.
Oh, by the way Lane Pederson is listed as a right shot center. This is good.
He’s played primarily C (based on faceoffs) in every other one of his NHL stops FWIW.
Pederson didn’t play as much center in his 11 game sample size with the Canucks because he spent a lot of his time on the wing with Kuzmenko and Pettersson on the first line (58 minutes combined in 9 games then. another 17 with just Kuzmenko when Pettersson missed a couple of games). He didn’t count a lot of points himself, but in his 5 on 5 time with those 2, the team was 6 GF 1 GA and, as a line, they had an xGF% of 58%.
Pederson had actually been practicing with those 2 on a line in the morning when he was put on waivers in the afternoon and claimed by Columbus the next day. This all took place very soon after Tocchet was hired and the day before Bo Horvat was traded to the Islanders for Beauvillier and Raty (and a first).
Staples had an article at the Cult of Hockey the other day about goalies struggling in their 2nd season. My first reaction was ‘that’s probably more myth than reality’, so I decided to look.
You might remember a while back I had a look at how goalies rebounded after poor seasons. I used that data set (going back to 07-08) to look at the 1st and 2nd 25+ game seasons for NHL goalies going back 16 years.
The bad news: it’s true.
Goalies did generally have a drop off in their 2nd full season. The average drop was a bit less than 5 SV% points (this is relative for league average in each season). So if Skinner were to follow the trend that would put him at .909 this season compared to .914 last year.
The good news: that’s two-fold.
First, a .909 SV% season for Skinner would not be at all bad. League average last season was .904, so Skinner would still be a fair bit above average at .909.
Second, the original analysis (you might recall) showed that goalies who had junk seasons like Campbell just did rebounded fully to their previous levels the following season. That is, goalies SV% was on average identical in the two seasons book ending the junk season.
Campbell was a .914 SV% goalie the year before he came to Edmonton, so the expectation (based on what’s happened to similar goalies in the past) is that he’ll be that again this coming season (though .914 would actually be .911 when adjusting for the drop in league-wide SV%).
I guess we can add to that that for their careers Skinner and Campbell are .913 and .910 SV% goalies. So their track records of strong NHL goaltending line up quite nicely with the .909 and .911 SV%s that I got from my analysis.
Anyway, the Oilers will be in pretty good shape goaltending-wise if the trends from goalies who came before them hold. Here’s hoping.
Great information. Thanks for putting this together
Goal is not the concern for the team imo. Bottom six, depth & RHD in that order.
I find it disappointing that we have arrived at what I felt would be their peak season to contend – based on contracts & age of their core players – and not only will they have to play without a full roster all season but there are still more question marks than there is cap to fill them.
Every time I suggest that a Kulak or Foegele trade in June would have been prudent I keep getting responses telling me how well Foegele played last season or that “we will be happy to have Kulak after the first injury” and I think to myself that both of those things can be true without having any impact on the fact that this team is top heavy in contracts and the only road to balance is to trim the middle down a touch.
But goal will be fine. The thing with Skinner is that he doesn’t have a weak spot for opposing video coaches to find in his second year. He doesn’t have a spectacular strength but he isn’t noticeably weak in a particular area either and that is the most common reason for the 2nd year slide imo. And I do expect Campbell to bounce back. We all wish he was more consistent but he does have a high ceiling to go with his low floor.
I think goaltending is absolutely a concern, and probably the number one concern. With even average goaltending in the playoffs, the Oilers get past Vegas.
I don’t know, if the team commits to playing a solid defensive game, you may be surprised at how the goaltenders improve. A full season with Ekholm patrolling the blueline might have a positive influence on the defense as a whole. I think the key may be with Darnell Nurse not looking to charge up ice for offensive opportunities and sticking closer to the goaltenders might pay dividends.
If the coach had got the line matching right, the Oilers get past Vegas.
You’re assuming Cassidy wouldn’t have responded appropriately.
As you’ve mentioned it takes FOUR lines and Vegas has them.
You know what gives me great comfort? It’s that, in predicting the future, you have never been right. Never.
Then that’s very cold comfort.
Again, you prove my point.
“I find it disappointing that we have arrived at what I felt would be their peak season to contend – based on contracts & age of their core players – and not only will they have to play without a full roster all season but there are still more question marks than there is cap to fill them.”
Interesting take considering this is pretty much what the Daily Faceoff cap analysis concluded.
I’ve been on the road all day so late with a response.
No, Daily Face Off concluded that two players taking up $15,000,000 to not play for Minnesota represented better cap management than what the Oilers did.
Just my opinion but that is total bullshit.
Yes…if you only consider this season and next but the $14.7 million dead cap then drops to $833K per season.
Also they will be shedding Mats Zuccarello ($6 million) and Marcus Foligno ($3.1million) after this season as they transition younger.
Cap Friendly has them with a staggering $49.6 million in free cap space in 25/26 just as the Oilers enter Capaggedon when Draisaitl, Bouchard, McLeod and Skinner all need new contracts while their aging out top 6 are still soaking up cap space.
The Daily Faceoff piece looked at the long term and while Minnesota doesn’t look great right now, they don’t really have any bad contracts and several screaming bargain contracts in Kaprizov, Boldy, Ericsson-Ek and Filip Gustavsson..
Projecting three years down the road on what a professional sports team will do is just nonsense.
No one predicted what they will do but cap flexibility is key.
Suggesting it isn’t is the actual nonsense.
Cap flexibility is good. The Oilers should have created some more this off season imo.
Rating them worst in the league is the dumbest of the summer’s click bait league rating nonsense articles you have linked to this off season – and that isn’t an easy 1st place to claim.
Anything you disagree with you call click bait.
It was a very thorough, well researched article that goes beyond vapid bluster.
Thing is, Minnesota remains very competitive despite having to carry that onerous dead cap space and are very well positioned in cap flexibility and numerous high end prospects to augment Kaprizov, Boldy and excellent goaltending.
Obviously they won’t immediately be a cup threat but once those dead contracts disappear, they will be very well positioned to move to the next level while the Oilers will have a much tougher job of negotiating the rapids.
I call it click bait because that is what summer time league wide ranking stories are. Good for you that you believe they have credibility but if you are trying to convince me that a team with $15 M in cap space tied up in two players who are no longer on the team doesn’t put them at the bottom of cap management you just don’t understand what the words mean so I’ll tell you again. Three years down the road predictions aren’t worth the pixels used to print them.
Stop making dumb arguments.
On top of that, Minnesota has only 7 players signed (for $43M in cap), with $49M in available cap for 25-26.
The Oilers currently have a projected $38M available with 9 players signed.
At least the Oilers have expiring players worth re-signing.
Now re-sign Draisaitl, Bouchard and Broberg.
And then there us this:
1. Minnesota WildThe Wild, despite graduating Matt Boldy, move into the top spot in this year’s pool rankings after they replaced him with Brock Faber and a big 2022 draft class that included four picks in the first two rounds and added to an already top-ranked pool. They’re the only team in the league with a top prospect at all six positions (G, C, LW, RW, RHD and LHD) and they’re going to be — spoiler alert! — the team with the most prospects in my upcoming top 50 drafted prospects ranking.
https://theathletic.com/3923067/2023/01/09/nhl-prospect-rankings-2023/?source=user_shared_article
And they drafted Charlie Stramel.
He projects into a power forward with speed who can go around or through defenders while in a top-six role. He’s able to win faceoffs at a high rate, he’s physical and is a defensively responsible center with excellent athletic abilities. It is difficult to find those abilities in a frame of his size.
6’3” 212 RHC…local Minneapolis kid playing for Wisconsin.
this is exactly the challenge in front of Oilers Management. How to round out this roster to Win a Cup, because almost everybody agrees, it’s close BUT not quite there yet.
Every year there are 6-8 Legitimate Teams who can win the Stanley Cup. Edmonton is firmly in that group this season. How the round out the roster will determine if they can go all the way!
I think it happens if they stop using players that aren’t getting the job done in key positions. Whatever the reason Yama had one great streak and then was not good enough
Same with Ceci. I’m not bashing the players, it’s the facts. Bjugstad used against top players. They had options and wouldn’t use them
So maybe the stats people can help them he coaches think differently about what they are seeing or the numbers they are valuing. Because they seem off
Better depth would be great of course (and again maybe they have it and wouldn’t use it. I think so). But maximizing deployment is something that costs nothing against the cap or any assets
Well some are certainly concerned with goal. Recall some even think the Oilers should have bought Campbell out. I have some concern myself, though I agree with you it’s not the biggest one.
It really is hard to know (probably impossible until things play out) whether it’s better to hold on to a little bit more quality (Kulak, Foegele) or exchange the quality for more depth. An injury in the top 6 or top 4 could make Foegele and/or Kulak really important players.
That said, I was a proponent of moving Kulak back in June as well (both for the cap space and to give Broberg a clear lineup spot), and was pretty sure one of he or Foegele would be traded this summer. I guess I’m not quite as concerned about the bottom 6 and depth as you are though.
In terms of bottom 6/depth at forward (below McLeod, Foegele, Janmark and Ryan):
22-23
11 –
Puljujarvi/Bjugstad(I don’t really count Bjugstad since no one keeps their rentals)12 –
Kostin13 – Holloway
14 –
Shore15 – Hamblin
16 – Malone
23-24
11 – Holloway (I think/hope he can take a bigger role than last season)
12 – Lavoie
13 – Pederson
14 – Gagner/Sutter
15 – Caggiula
16 – Hamblin/Malone/Bourgault
There’s some drop-off vs. last year, but it may not be a lot. And while there’s not room on the roster for a lot of the depth, I feel like much of it will make its way to Bakersfield and be available if/when needed.
For me, goaltending is a concern until proven otherwise.
whoops responded to wrong comment. as one does.
Goaltenders who have paid their dues in the AHL, and worked out the kinks in their game, tend not to have sophomore slumps.
I’m not sure there’s any basis for that statement – most goalies play a few years in the AHL before making the jump to the NHL. Hopefully you’re correct as it relates to Skinner though.
Yes, I do vaguely recall something about this. I was actually the person that started this inquiry and you stepped in with some methodological changes.
With my criteria, no goalie who had a Campbell-esque slump had rebounded to both a starter’s workload and league average SV% the following year.
Campbell is paid to be a starter on the Oilers.
With your methodology, IIRC you had included Price, goalie Bob, and Andersen who all had much more established track records than Campbell.
Campbell’s a little different in that he’s already over 30, but he’s only ever played one season with a starter’s workload.
Then you averaged out the results. This, at the very least, created weighting issues. For example if player A played 15 games the following season with a ..899 SV% and player B played 43 at .918 then that averages out to a .913.
Because players that play better get more games and those who play poor get fewer, this falsy amplifies that post slump season average
Could you calculate the post slump year SV% (unweighted for games played) and median SV%?
Do you have a list of goalies that comprised the comps?
IIRC you were just pulling names at the beginning and I tried to add something systematic.
Unfortunately when I was putting the data together I didn’t include GP since it was a bunch of extra work and I didn’t (still don’t entirely) think it mattered. I used a 20+ games cutoff for any season I used though.
And while Campbell is being paid as a starter, that doesn’t impact whether his SV% will recover or not (which is all I’ve suggested, based on the data)
To your questions.
Year before
Average -0.001
Median +0.001
Bad year
Average -0.014
Median -0.015
Year after
Average -0.002
Median -0.001/-0.002 (there were 48 seasons, 24 and 25 was the split between 0.001 and 0.002)
(I also forgot that there was a 0.001 drop in the ‘after’ season, but that was due to goalies 36 and older. For the 43 goalie seasons 35 and younger the before/after seasons were the same)
No.
I had a specific set of criteria: goalies over 30, who played 30 or more games in a season and had a sub .900 SV%
While you refined the criteria in one regard by adjusting for league average SV%, you loosened most of the inclusion criteria in terms of how many games played for the slump year as well as the delta between the slump at the league average sV%.
My other recollection is that you used a weird criteria for number of career games played. It was something like 200 or 250 which was odd because Campbell himself didn’t meet that criteria.
I remember of the two players that were closest comps for Campbell, one of them you had eliminated because he was a few months under age 30 at the start of his slump season and the other one was under 200 career games played (as is Campbell).
You’re being very clever with your words here, again. 🙂
However, you know what the issue here is. The goalies who bounced back, generally did so as backups. That’s an important distinction, especially when you’re paying a goalie $5m per year for four more seasons.
There’s a big difference between a starter rebounding to their established save percentage as a starter then doing so with a back up workload.
In terms of career arcs, like late arrival in the NHL, slump over age 30 season, no Vezina trophies, no history of multiple successful seasons as as starter before the slump, no 500 gp career etc.
The closes comps to Campbell that I found were Chad Johnson and Philipp Grubauer.
I don’t recall you laying out specific criteria, certainly not at the start, but maybe I missed it.
Yes, I used 200 games. Campbell is all but assured of being a 200 game goalie (and very likely by the end of this season).
I don’t think that’s true, though we don’t currently have any data that helps us resolve the question.
No comment on the Hall of Famers that make up the list?
Here’s the list of goalies. Some have multiple entries (quite a few actually) so it will be less than 48 names. Also possible I missed a couple.
Antti Niemi
Braden Holtby
Brian Elliott
Cam Talbot
Carey Price
Carter Hart
Chris Mason
Corey Crawford
Craig Anderson
Devan Dubnyk
Frederik Anderson
Ilya Bryzgalov
James Reimer
Jonathan Quick
Joonas Korpisalo
JS Giguerre
Kari Lehtonen
Martin Brodeur
Martin Jones
Mathieu Garon
Matt Murray
Michal Neurvith
Mike Smith
Ondraj Pavelec
Pekka Rinne
Petr Mrazek
Philipp Grubauer
Robin Lehner
Semyon Varlamov
Sergei Bobrovsky
Steve Mason
Thomas Greiss
I saw the article and was starting to look into it as well, but I looked at current projected NHL starters and only did the first 8 or so.
Staples looked at goalies with the most Calder votes as his focus and you looked at 25+ games. I think you need to looked at current NHL starters or goalies with at least 35 GP in their first 2 season to find the best comparison.
I guess, but Staples and I found basically the same thing. What you’re suggesting is kind of in between what we each did (in terms of the quality of goalies looked at), so I’m not sure why it would change the result.
Lots of time to go until Kenny H has to make some decisions. But those decisions could be impacted by LTIR if someone gets hurt long term.
I still think either Foegle or Kulak will be traded to open up some cap space … Foegele could be traded anytime IMO. I think if Broberg steps up and shows some consistency, he could replace Kulak as 3 LHD …
There is a chance both get moved??
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Broberg
Kulak Ceci/Desharnais
Why fix what may not be broken?
I’m thinking we might see Broberg paired with Ekholm. Bouchard with Nurse. It might work well, Nurse might not feel the urge to contribute as much offensively and stay more at home.
This could/should be tried (of course, with the appropriate fix of swapping Bouchard and Broberg) but we don’t know that it won’t be broken.
It behooves the organization to try and, and I’m optimistic on the results, but we have no certainty.
It won’t work if they are doing the same defensive strategy. Nurse Bouch would almost certainly struggle as it accentuates both of their weakest areas, even if Bouch is a way better partner for Nurse stylistically than Ceci
Bro as well. They need a simpler thing that is more focused on danger areas and outlets. Give them nothing, get the puck and get moving. The Oilers should be tops in breaking out and they get snafood pretty easily still under the right type of pressure. Not consistent enough yet
I can’t help but think there’s another shoe to drop for the 4C position. I know they don’t have the money to do anything, but I also find it very unlikely they’re looking at Pedersen as the solution there in a season where they’re pushing for a long playoff run. I don’t think that’s a position you need to or want to leave until the deadline, as it shouldn’t be that pricey to upgrade.
The deadline is when this needs to happen based on our cap situation though. The team is good enough with a hole at 4C to still win the division. There’s no need to rush at this point.
I don’t think it’s a matter of rushing. I think it’s more that you can probably make the money work for a 4C pretty easy. If they start the season and don’t see any traction there from the guys on the roster now, I don’t think they’ll wait long until they make a move there. I’m curious on the whole Toews thing still.
I agree that you can make the money work, but it may mean a lot less cap space at the deadline if you bring in a 4C in the $1.1-1.2 million range now. If you can bring in someone for league min and you don’t mind risking the loss of Lavoie on waivers then it could be done now. I wouldn’t risk Lavoie at this point personally, especially given you don’t know what he can do at the NHL level and our pipeline is pretty weak right now. I don’t think a marginal upgrade on the 4C slot makes enough of a difference during the regular season to be worth that risk. Unless there is a trade to be had, the 4Cs currently on the market would not represent a big upgrade (other posters have outlined these options in previous weeks).
They actually do have a bit of money – they could sign a player for upwards of $1.1MM to be the 12F.
Pederson is unlikely to be “the plan”.
Lets not forget, on the date Pederson and Caggiula signed, Holland confirmed the signings were both with the intent to provide depth and be in the AHL.
Thing about Pederson is there’s no upside to the player. Woody would play this guy max 8 minutes / night and he’ll never be more than a RH Devin Shore.
Lavoie on the other hand is a dynamic skating 6’4” power winger who could replace Connor Brown’s spot in the lineup next season if he matures his game.
At this point they’re both AAAA players.
This is true and I would keep Lavoie for his potential upside (not to mention the waiver risk). Coaches like safe and low variability players even if their average performance is lesser than someone with higher variability. One of the problems for the Oilers bottom 6 for years has been the safe players are not particularly good. This is starting to change as evidenced with the McDavid and Draisaitl off numbers last year.
For a team chasing Stanley, the GM/coach has to use the right tool for the job.
It is a fine balancing act between development and deployment.
If a RH centre is the correct tool, Lavoie isn’t the best option. But he should get some reps.
There are FOUR lines.
Kane, McDavid, Hyman
Holloway, Draisaitl, Brown
Foegele, McLeod, Ryan
Janmark, Nugent-Hopkins, Lavoie
I’m thinking that if Lavoie shows well during training camp I would start him with Kane and McDavid.
Kane, McDavid, Lavoie,
Hyman, Draisailt, Brown
Foegle, McLeod, Holloway
Janmark, RNH, Ryan
The youngsters need to step up and show they have the goods. Early in the season is when to find out.
1) What does “show well” at camp mean – I mean, remember when Holloway “showed well” last camp and it meant, well, all but nothing as far as being top 6 ready?
2) Do you think there is one iota of a chance that Woody does this.
3) Do you honestly think that its a good idea to have a 23 year old rookie with zero NHL games play with McDavid (18 minutes against the league’s best opposition) and Nugent-Hopkins, potentially a career Oiler, coming of a season of 104 points which included 5 on 5 production in line with Gaudrea, Scheifele, Fiala, Eichel, etc. play with Janamrk and Ryan?
Yes, but are they FOUR good lines? 😎
Agreed – there is no “upside” to Pederson or Gagner (or Hamblin or Caggiula or Malone) on the roster.
The only one, aside from Lavoie, that could potentially provide a real impact, would be Sutter given his history as a big, right show center, that defends against elites, kills penalties at a high level and wins faceoffs. Of course, that is history and he’s unlikely to be able to do impact an NHL lineup at this point.
If Lavoie can’t beat out Pederson, Sutter and Gagner for a 12F spot, well, what is this prospect?
Lavoie needs to be a fourth line center because that is the only open spot on the roster.
Lavoie is not a center – end stop.
If he is on the 4th line with Janmark and Ryan, he is the 3rd option for center on that line.
blob:https://lowetide.ca/a28f48c4-cd71-4cbc-826a-9d701484ec89
That page doesn’t exist so I don’t know what you are trying to say.
Philip had a significant death in the family that impacted his desire to pursue hockey. Not much more the organization could have done from what I understand.
It was a few years ago now and, while I will not divulge the additional information that was provided to me in confidence, the circumstances would lead to it being particularly impactful.
Only caught about 20 minutes of you on the radio. Fantastic to hear you again. Just 1 thing, in my line of work, if you make a minor mistake, you owe ice cream or coffee to your crew. Not sure if saying “tsn 1260” counts 🙂 but it does in my books 🙂
I absolutely KNEW I would say it but was hoping to get past the first segment. 🙂