The Edmonton Oilers spent ages in pursuit of aces and kings, but could find only sixes and sevens and nines. Now the club is loaded with top end talent, but need support players and depth to ensure success over the long season. What can the team do?
The Oilers can run a team out of the building at the top end, but lack depth in some important areas. Perhaps we'll see another Samorukov-for-Kostin October surpise. Here's a look at some of the options. https://t.co/H86DxOD6uB
Tyler Pitlick got off to a slow start as a pro hockey player. He was 19 years, 11 months and eight days old when he made his AHL debut. He played sparingly and it took some time for him to push his way up the roster. Pick224. com does all kinds of estimates going back a long way.
2011-12: 14:49 est TOI; 49 Pct EV goal share (56 pct away); .37 pts-game
2012-13: 12:35 est TOI; 42 Pct EV goal share (52 pct away); .23 pts-game
2013-14: 15:35 est TOI; 55 Pct EV goal share (44 pct away); .56 pts-game
2014-15: 16:13 est TOI; 47 Pct EV goal share (55 pct away); .64 pts-game
Pitlick had an uneven AHL career, never getting close to a true skill line and never really outscoring beyond the 2013-14 season. He’s managed to play 386 NHL games and has been deployed by a different team year over year for absolute ages. He’s a journeyman, but also a survivor. How do the current Oilers hopefuls look?
Using Pitlick’s 2013-14 season to represent the moment a light went on for the player, how many of the current forward prospects considered NHL-worthy are NHL-ready? Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie, along with Xavier Bourgault. Bourgault was a rookie here, so his performance is more impressive and we could send him on a higher trajectory based on that fact. Tyler Tullio is building, and from the group of AHL rookies one year ago most closely resembles Pitlick’s freshman year with the OKC Barons. What does it mean? I think the Oilers may land several of these names in the NHL. Encouraging? Yes. Vital? Yes again, because there are so few prospects in the system.
This is the likely roster for the Condors to begin the season, Lane Pederson the biggest question mark. In case you’ve forgotten, the coach is a massive piece of the AHL puzzle and Colin Chaulk had an interesting first full season behind the bench for the team. Here, once again, is the Chaulk outline from his 2022-23 season.
What do you think of Chaulk’s first full season? There are some positive developments, and the Oilers used some of the available talent at the deadline in shoring up the big club. There are also things to work on.
Where would you like to start? Let’s start with the positive. The two best forwards on the team in 2022-23 were prospects (Raphael Lavoie and Noah Philp). That’s a positive.
And? Several kids who had been in the system for some time (Mike Kesselring, Olivier Rodrigue, Phil Kemp) took steps forward. It was go time in some cases, and they stepped up. Most of the credit goes to the player, but the coaching staff earns some praise as well.
Anything else? I thought two rookie wingers, Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio, showed well in even strength outscoring. A little shy offensively, and that segues nicely to the things we can be critical of in regard to coach Chaulk.
What’s the problem? The top right-winger (Seth Griffith) had a 46 percent goal share (46-54) during the regular season. Josh Bailey, another regular who played both wings, was also at 46 percent. Meanwhile, the kids Bourgault (60 percent) and Tullio (54 percent) were winning the goal share. I get the toughest competition goes to the veterans, but the other veterans didn’t score at a 46 percent rate. Brad Malone (57 percent), Luke Esposito (57 percent) and other veterans were well past 50 percent. Even Greg McKegg, who had a horrible start to the year, finished 52 percent goal share at even strength.
What’s the problem? I think Chaulk would have been wise to increase the playing time of the youngsters, making them the feature players. He did eventually do it with Bourgault, and it wasn’t the fault of the coach that the team didn’t have a truly impressive offensive center to run with him.
Maybe Griffith was filling the net? Filling the net at both ends is not effective.
Okay, what prospect took a step back last season? More than one? Carter Savoie had an estimated pts-60 of 1.08 at even strength and was outscored 9-14. He did score .68 goals-60 estimated, that’s a promising number from such a confusing season. That isn’t a step back so much as a failure to step due to injury.
Anyone else? Not among the prospects, not really. The struggling players, to my eye, were Griffith, Jason Demers, Yanni Kaldis (he had some injury issues but was 11-20 even-strength goals), and James Hamblin who took a step back.
Is there anyone you think negatively impacted their career? Was it Chaulk’s fault? Tyler Benson. Not Chaulk’s fault.
Care to expand on this? I think Benson let go the rope this year. He played 29 NHL games in 2021-22, just two this past season, and I do think when he was in Bakersfield the results were impacted. By year, his points-per-game in the AHL: .97; .77; 1.00; .67 and this season .53. I think he needs a second opinion and will get it this winter. I wish him the best.
What was Benson’s estimated even-strength points-60? In 2022-23, Benson posted a 0.95 estimated pts-60. In his rookie season, 2016-17, that number was 2.22 pts-60. In 2020-21, it was 2.18. That’s a very productive AHL winger.
Who did Chaulk help? We can start with his challenging of Raphael Lavoie, who was a healthy scratch on December 3. After that date, Lavoie scored 23-19-42 in 49 games. He spent time tearing up the black top, but also played a more complete game, kept his feet moving and pushing his way into successful situations. He had a strong finish, the most impressive by a big Oilers forward in the AHL in many years.
When was the last time you saw it? Jujhar Khaira went 4-9-13 in 13 games starting January 8, 2016. Won an NHL job the next season.
Anyone else he helped? The coaching staff helped Olivier Rodrigue, he looks back on the straight and narrow after some time spent wandering. I don’t know how much credit Chaulk gets for it, but this did occur on his watch.
Anyone else else? I’ll mention Mike Kesselring, who was placed in an ideal situation and ran with it; Phil Kemp, who was thrust into a bigger role and delivered; and AHL contract Dino Kambeitz who is a personal favourite.
Anyone the coach was slow to recognize? Tyler Tullio, Noah Philp, those are the two main ones.
But he figured it out? Yes, once Philp arrived at center things went very well. And Tullio just kept being so damned useful.
How many future NHLers has Chaulk helped? We’ll see. I think Lavoie is NHL-ready, Bourgault and Tullio have a chance and Savoie has the single most important hockey skill on the planet. There’s plenty to work with here.
What grade do you give Chaulk? I think a B is fair. He helped most of the real prospects, but Bourgault didn’t get the feature minutes it looks like he earned and the coach relied too much on veterans like Griffith and Demers. Even when those vets struggled, he stayed the course, despite younger players showing they were ready for the test. That’s my read on things.
Who are the major rookies this year coming to Bakersfield? Well, Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe are both compelling, but for me it’s Matvey Petrov. He’s either the most talented player in the system or damn close. Jake Chiasson will also make his pro debut, not sure he is compelling as a prospect. Seems a little shy, we’ll see.
Will the team be better in 2023-24? Yes. Ken Holland signed defensemen Noel Hoefenmayer and Ben Gleason to shore up an area of need. Lane Pederson will take on the 1C duties when in Bakersfield, allowing James Hamblin to slide down to a depth role or move to the wing. Drake Caggiula can replace Seth Griffith if it comes to it.
Who are the most likely recalls this season? Assuming Raphael Lavoie starts the season in the NHL, I’ll say all of Lane Pederson, Markus Niemelainen, Phil Kemp, Cam Dineen, Calvin Pickard, Olivier Rodrigue, Drake Caggiula, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie, James Hamblin and Brad Malone could get the call. The Condors are a mature team, the wins should come.
Mike McKenna’s piece on Sanderson contract is germane to Bouch. It would have liked more assertiveness on it because it will almost surely cost depth later. The cap going up doesn’t help in the long run as salaries increase
Too bad Jackson didn’t insert himself I’m sure he gets it
The Sens are in a vastly different spot than the Oilers. While they are on the upswing, they are unlikely to be a true contender over the next 2-3 years (but potentially shortly thereafter, potentially) and they can afford to pay more in the next few years in order to get the discount in the medium term (if it even turns out to be one).
The Oilers are 100% looking to win the cup this year and/or next year and a bridge deal for Bouchard saving apx $4MM per for the next two years propagates that goal.
Caveat: I transcribed this as it was aired live so they aren’t necessarily direct quotes but concepts in certain case.
1) Lots of study in the off-season – looking at own team and looking at other team.
2) Need to remember that we have a really good team. We’ve won lots of games. We do alot of things correctly but we want to add layers. Accentuate on the things we do well and improve in the areas we need to improve and lots of time was spent in the summer in that regard.
3) Captain Skates: Speaks to our leaders and not just the two guys. Best part is that the group is together. The longer a group is together, the quicker it comes together.
4) McLeod/Bouch: Definite pride in having them in Bako and watching their growth. Important for that push to come from beneath and for those two to become important parts of team. Lots of people factored in to their growth and development. Both those players are poised to have big years and we’ll need them. They stepped up in both the last two playoff runs.
5) Holloway/Broberg: Definite opportunity. 2 more players that have come through the system. Coaches have strong believe in both. Both those players see daylight in terms of their opportunity. What they do with that is up to them. They both had good summers. They’ve been messaged and are taking it on.
6) Will there be a push for ice time for Broberg? Yes, we played him about 25 minutes per game in the minors. He has the talent and ability. So far he’s tried to establish himself as an NHL player. The newness of the league and the demands of the NHL player are not there. He and Holloways know what it takes. We are seeing the beginning signs of what they can become. They both put in the work in the summer and its up to them to show it to us – the opportunity will be there
7) Yes, we have an idea of lines. We just came out of a week of coaches meetings. We have an idea of a starting point. We want certain players to feel certain things when they see the opening lineup. We will adjust based on who is going. Day 1 is not set in stone. We’re here to treat everyone fairly and give them opportunities and they’ll show us where they are in their game.
8) The two PTOs and is 4C the one spot? Yes, there is an opportunity to carve out a spot on the team there. Brings Lane Pederson in to the conversation and talks about coaching against him in the AHL and how he put up big numbers last year with some NHL games. Sutter is hockey-sense personified but looking to re-establish himself. Its Gagner’s 3rd time around. They all have the mind-set of making the Oilers.
But they aren’t the only one’s – Hamblin played 10 games, Malone played games, Lavoie is looking for the taste at the NHL level.
9) How much do you watch other teams to learn – Alot of that work happens in the summer time. I’m not a big fan of giving away information. I study and work in order to pick things up from what other teams due successfully. We do alot of work in the summer and alot of time as coaching staff bandying it about.
10) Changes to staff: Ya, we lost Jeremy Coupal who was with us for 8-9 years. Wanted to go home to BC. Gave us the opportunity to change the complexion of our staff. Noah S. has moved up to the big chair as video coach. I’ve know Mike Fanelli for four years – he worked in the analytics department in Tampa and then coaching in the USHL – excited to bring him in.
A little more on the Captain’s skates today from Gregor. Apparently today’s was open to some media at least (not sure if it was also for the general public).
Savoie, Griffith, Pickard, Rodrigue and all the main AHL Dmen were present by the sounds of it.
Yes for sure, though I don’t think ALL of the AHLers were invited. So I think there may be significance to Savoie, for instance, being there since he had a really tough 1st pro year and he looks like a very long shot to see any NHL games this season.
I would think that anyone that has an NHL contract would be welcome but that’s just my presumption.
It interesting though while its more likely that Gagner plays games for the Oilers this season than Savoie, Savoie is under contract to the Oilers, Gagner could sign anywhere at any time.
OriginalPouzar
September 7, 2023 11:30 am
Gregor has been saying that he’s hearing rumblings of the Oilers potentially signing a league min player still. Truth be told, they could actually sign a player for close to $1.2MM.
Anyways, he expressly mentioned Comtois today – I don’t think it was inside info as much as a player he likes. I’ve been posting about him for a while now as well as he’s got a history of producing in the league and does come with some jam and upside.
I though I read he was going to the Knight’s camp on a PTO but not sure that was ever made official.
Max Comtois was the captain of the 2018 WJ team and might be part of the discipline HH is referencing related to a sexual assault on female after a party. Basically he’s rumour mongering because no one knows for sure who the players are. Maybe shouldn’t cancel these guys so quickly until they are actually punished.
I’m guessing HH is bringing it up because he wants to give the impression there is significant urgency for the Oilers, a “fringe” playoff team, to sign someone quickly before other team(s) (all who are obviously better than the Oilers) have players suspended and need to grab people from this list. And whoever is grabbed from the list by another team will instantly be better than anyone in the Oilers bottom 9F or bottom 4D, and that the Oilers missed their chance, all because they “dithered” with Bouchard and Nurse.
There, I think I covered all of HH’s recent blatherings.
I get he has a reputation for disappearing in the playoffs, but I’d want Tatar from that list. Perfect dude that can play up the depth chart during the regular season if need be.
100%. At a price the Oilers can afford he’d be a really solid add.
jp
September 7, 2023 10:54 am
Ryan:
I’d forgotten, but a main reason I didn’t look at GP initially was because of the Covid shortened seasons. I pro-rated those now and there is a GP drop for the goalies during and after their crap season:
Before 51GP
Crap 42GP
After 38GP
So while SV% returned to previous levels, the goalies played 13 fewer games on average. They weren’t exactly backups though.
There was a positive correlation (0.22) between GP and SV% in the ‘after’ season (also during the crap season – 0.33). I’m not sure why you’d want me to do a weighted average though, as that would just inflate the SV% for the ‘after’ season.
The examples from my data set who returned to a starters workload (I used 40+GP) and at least a league average SV% after their crap season were:
Andersen
Dubnyk
Greiss
Mrazek
Pavelic
Price
Quick
Smith
Varlamov
First, what were your inclusion criteria, if you could remind me? Like you list Dubnyk as a player that has a slump year then returned to a starter’s workload, but Dubnyk was only 27 when he had his “if you hane to ask the question” year playing for the Oilers.
I didn’t think that it made sense to include players who slumped before age thirty as goalies supposedly stop improving once they’re 30. So the premise being it would be reasonable for a goalie under 30 to rebound, but less so for a goalie over 30.
Next, what about survivorship bias in terms of players who dropped out of the league after their slump year? How many players dropped off?
Lastly, I think many of your comps are unreasonable. Campbell’s certainly very unlikely to win the Vezina let alone play over 700 NHL games.
One way to correct for this would be to divide your players into career games played buckets, like 300 or less, 400 or less, etc or something like that, then look at the SV% numbers for each bucket.
It was all goalies of all ages who had a season 10+ SV% points below league average and followed it up with a 40+ game, league average or better SV% season. Their ages are here:
Andersen – 30
Dubnyk – 27
Greiss – 31
Mrazek – 25
Pavelic – 26
Price – 30
Quick – 34
Smith – 28
Varlamov – 28
I didn’t think that it made sense to include players who slumped before age thirty as goalies supposedly stop improving once they’re 30. So the premise being it would be reasonable for a goalie under 30 to rebound, but less so for a goalie over 30.
In my original analysis I looked at the players binned by age (this is SV% points after vs. before the crap season:
26 and under +1.5
27-29 -2.0
30-32 0.0
33-25 +1.9
36 and older -3.2
There’s nothing there to suggest that goalies over 30-35 are less likely to rebound than the ones under 30 (and splitting hairs, the opposite would actually seem to be true).
Next, what about survivorship bias
There were 48 crap goalie seasons (with available before/after years, all with 20+ games) in the data set. There were an additional 15 crap seasons seasons where the goalie didn’t play another 20+ game season (ie – attrition). All of them were by goalies 33 or older:
4 at 33 (did not play at 34)
2 at 34
5 at 35
0 at 36
4 at 37 or older
One way to correct for this would be to divide your players into career games played buckets, like 300 or less, 400 or less, etc or something like that, then look at the SV% numbers for each bucket.
That makes sense but the data set is from NST so only goes back to 07-08. Guys who’s careers started before that have their careers clipped (guess I could look them up individually but that’s a pain). And goalies who are still active also can’t be included because we don’t know where they’ll be by the end of their careers.
Another way to look for quality could be binning by SV% in the season before, though I guess that wouldn’t work for you since that would put Campbell in a ‘quality’ bin which is what you’re disagreeing with.
There’s nothing there to suggest that goalies over 30-35 are less likely to rebound than the ones under 30
Nothing except:
There were an additional 15 crap seasons seasons where the goalie didn’t play another 20+ game season (ie – attrition). All of them were by goalies 33 or older:
4 at 33 (did not play at 34)
2 at 34
5 at 35
That’s some evidence of survivorship bias right there. 🙂
Their ages are here:
Andersen – 30
Dubnyk – 27
Greiss – 31
Mrazek – 25
Pavelic – 26
Price – 30
Quick – 34
Smith – 28
Varlamov – 28
89% of the players that rebounded to a starter’s workload were under age 31.
For the four old guys on your list, Price won a Vezina trophy, Quick was nominated twice, Andersen was widely considered a Vezina snub one year in Toronto, but he had multiple successful campaigns as a starter. Greiss had one season left in him as a starter (43 games played).
Despite what you think, I have no personal bias against Campbell. Father Time in hockey is kindest to the most talented. Campbell’s 31 and he’s only ever had one successful season as a starter. He played like crap last year and he’s on the books for four more years at $5m per. That’s not ideal.
Now it’s possible Campbell rebounds, but the question remains of what that would look like.
One really good season as a low volume starter like Greiss before falling off the cliff?
A couple years as a decent but severely overpriced backup?
Yup, I think he should head there and hopefully get some good game time in. Not a great first year, but the jump to the AHL is real. Hopefully he can put in a solid building year in Wichita and who knows?
It’s Fort Wayne Komets. Fanti had decent numbers in the playoffs last year and could be moving up if he can translate the improvement into the year’s regular season.
Top 10 best calls ever from Down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier…. To the Giants win the pennant, the Giants win the pennant, the Giants win the pennant… The Mayday call will live on for eternity
OriginalPouzar
September 7, 2023 8:59 am
Who are the most likely recalls this season? Assuming Raphael Lavoie starts the season in the NHL, I’ll say all of Lane Pederson, Markus Niemelainen, Phil Kemp, Cam Dineen, Calvin Pickard, Olivier Rodrigue, Drake Caggiula, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie, James Hamblin and Brad Malone could get the call. The Condors are a mature team, the wins should come.
I’m throwing Noel H. in the conversation (over Dineen) based on nothing more than a feeling, that he was signed out of the Leaf org and what I’ve read/seen show a player with good offensive skill who has also changed his game to provide secondary impact (6 fights last year and most of them standing up for teammates).
I look for Phil Kemp to get NHL games and, if he can be mobile enough to defend the rush and defend in-zone against shifty NHL forwards, there could be a diamond here – that dude is a smart smart smart hockey player.
The hope has to be that, when the time comes, the real prospects that have a chance this season (namely Tulio and Bourgault) have continued their progression enough that they get the call over the vets like Malone/Habmlin/Caggiula. If a call-up is needed in November, sure, the likes of Pederson and those AHL vets get the call but, if that call is in February, here is hoping Tulio and Bourgault have put themselves in to consideration.
OriginalPouzar
September 7, 2023 8:54 am
What’s the problem? I think Chaulk would have been wise to increase the playing time of the youngsters, making them the feature players. He did eventually do it with Bourgault, and it wasn’t the fault of the coach that the team didn’t have a truly impressive offensive center to run with him.
I would suggest that Tulio got feature time when he was running hot (PP time) and for large chunks Philp was deployed as the #1C at evens.
Chaulk may have been slow to recognize and deploy in higher leverage but he got there at points.
Anyone else he helped? The coaching staff helped Olivier Rodrigue, he looks back on the straight and narrow after some time spent wandering. I don’t know how much credit Chaulk gets for it, but this did occur on his watch.
Rodrigue had a great “put his name back on the map” season. Without looking, his numbers were similar to those of Pickard and he was a much mature goalie who didn’t stack bad goals on bad goals.
At the same time, the coaching staff kept deferring back to Pickard, even when Rodrigue was providing at least even tending. I think he got 29 games which is nice but I think he earned more.
I know the coaching staff needs to keep Pickard ready in case of an injury to Skinner or Cambell but I hope these two split, at least.
Agreed, I’d love to see Rodrigue and Pickard split the net this year. By geebus if there is an injury to the top pair it better be to Campbell!
Back to Rodrigue, I’ve liked what I’ve seen of him so far in his career and have hopes he can be a solid NHL backup to Skinner one day. That said I was also all in on Wells and that didn’t quite shake out the way I hoped. Goalies are voodoo…..
It’s a great line without doubt but I am not sure how true it is. The thing with goalies is that any weakness whatsoever can be either a serious limiting factor or a career ender and I am not sure it is fully appreciated how much video has amplified that.
As a forward you can have a muffin shot or be a lazy back checker or not be very good along the boards etc. and still have some kind of career if you have a really strong skill such as a great shot or plus skater. There is a top six and a bottom six – or a middle six these days – for different strengths and weaknesses.
For dmen it is just standard to split them into two way, offensive or defensive types recognizing that only one of those three groups has no huge deficiencies. You can have a long and pretty good career in the NHL with any of those designations.
You don’t really get that with goalies.
You sometimes hear them referred to as reflex or positional but once the talk turns to weaknesses you know the career is in jeopardy. When the video coach tells you to “shoot high, glove hand” or “can’t close the five hole” gets mentioned and the goals start going in the NHL jobs disappear in a hurry.
Goalies are elite when they have exceptional ability, are NHL employable when they “stop the ones they should” – or close to it for backups – and reassessing their career choices once an obvious weakness that coaching cannot fix is identified.
It’s one of the reasons I was so sure about Skinner. I don’t see ‘elite’ so much as solid. He should have a long career in the NHL in some capacity.
Campbell is different. He plays elite and then he loses it. He can win you games when the team doesn’t have it and lose you games that should have been won. He fits into the one odd category that is used to talk about goalies – the head case or mental category and I don’t use them as necessarily pejorative terms.
Lenner is/was the poster boy for the former designation. Campbell seems to be more on the ‘confidence’ side of things. You hear the confidence thing about goal scorers as well but a goal scorer that goes 8 games without a goal is probably still playing somewhere in the line up. Goalies who lose you 8 games in a row because of bad goals? Not so much.
So to end this long ramble. The thing to look for in goalies isn’t what they are good at so much as what they are bad at. That alone removes a lot of the voodoo as well as explaining a lot of the ‘2nd season’ dip that Ryan and JP are currently engaged in imo.
Those are all great points, and an interesting way of looking at it.
You’d hope that goalies as time moves on would be able to use the tape on themselves to work out those kinks in their game though. We’re into the days now where they’re all pretty much peak athletes so technique should be possible to work on, the body mechanics should be there.
Still you’re right, a forward or d-man can still have a career even if there’s one thing they don’t do well.
I should know that from tennis. I suck at overheads, but I can still win matches without them or even if I do decide to Djokovic them straight into the net every time.
OriginalPouzar
September 7, 2023 8:49 am
Anything else? I thought two rookie wingers, Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio, showed well in even strength outscoring. A little shy offensively, and that segues nicely to the things we can be critical of in regard to coach Chaulk.
Ty Tulio went on a couple of offensive heaters last season and, hot damn, if he isn’t a player to be excited about. He’s a Brendan Gallagher lite to my eye and he’s got some offensive skill to be back it up and a bomb of a shot (with a crazy release) when he’s got space.
I might be fantasizing but I put Tulio right up with Bourgault as a “real prospect” that has a chance to be in the conversation for call-up if a middle six forward is needed later in the season.
I like Tullio a lot as well, if he turns into half of what Montreal have had in Gallagher it’s a homerun winner for the scouts. Don’t get why you’re getting downvoted so much on this either, he’s a real prospect.
OriginalPouzar
September 7, 2023 8:46 am
Where would you like to start? Let’s start with the positive. The two best forwards on the team in 2022-23 were prospects (Raphael Lavoie and Noah Philp). That’s a positive.
Agree with this statement and would also note the clear progression and development for each player through the season.
Lavoie’s “lightbulb moment” around Christmas is well documented but there have been more than one account regarding that tough love relationship through the season.
Philp started the season as an after-though, playing wing on the 4th line or watching from the press-box. By the end of the season he was approaching 20 goals, playing in all situations as a center and a huge part of the team (and my favorite prospect). There are accounts of the team working him in to the center position and working on some structural parts of his down-low game in the defensive zone with paths and angles.
How about those Lions!
Mike McKenna’s piece on Sanderson contract is germane to Bouch. It would have liked more assertiveness on it because it will almost surely cost depth later. The cap going up doesn’t help in the long run as salaries increase
Too bad Jackson didn’t insert himself I’m sure he gets it
Do have a link to this?
The Sens are in a vastly different spot than the Oilers. While they are on the upswing, they are unlikely to be a true contender over the next 2-3 years (but potentially shortly thereafter, potentially) and they can afford to pay more in the next few years in order to get the discount in the medium term (if it even turns out to be one).
The Oilers are 100% looking to win the cup this year and/or next year and a bridge deal for Bouchard saving apx $4MM per for the next two years propagates that goal.
Plenty of chatter tonight that Buffalo is about to sign Rasmus Dahlin to an 8 year $10.5 million extension.
Woody will be on Oilers Now shortly after 5 today. Leon as well.
Caveat: I transcribed this as it was aired live so they aren’t necessarily direct quotes but concepts in certain case.
1) Lots of study in the off-season – looking at own team and looking at other team.
2) Need to remember that we have a really good team. We’ve won lots of games. We do alot of things correctly but we want to add layers. Accentuate on the things we do well and improve in the areas we need to improve and lots of time was spent in the summer in that regard.
3) Captain Skates: Speaks to our leaders and not just the two guys. Best part is that the group is together. The longer a group is together, the quicker it comes together.
4) McLeod/Bouch: Definite pride in having them in Bako and watching their growth. Important for that push to come from beneath and for those two to become important parts of team. Lots of people factored in to their growth and development. Both those players are poised to have big years and we’ll need them. They stepped up in both the last two playoff runs.
5) Holloway/Broberg: Definite opportunity. 2 more players that have come through the system. Coaches have strong believe in both. Both those players see daylight in terms of their opportunity. What they do with that is up to them. They both had good summers. They’ve been messaged and are taking it on.
6) Will there be a push for ice time for Broberg? Yes, we played him about 25 minutes per game in the minors. He has the talent and ability. So far he’s tried to establish himself as an NHL player. The newness of the league and the demands of the NHL player are not there. He and Holloways know what it takes. We are seeing the beginning signs of what they can become. They both put in the work in the summer and its up to them to show it to us – the opportunity will be there
7) Yes, we have an idea of lines. We just came out of a week of coaches meetings. We have an idea of a starting point. We want certain players to feel certain things when they see the opening lineup. We will adjust based on who is going. Day 1 is not set in stone. We’re here to treat everyone fairly and give them opportunities and they’ll show us where they are in their game.
8) The two PTOs and is 4C the one spot? Yes, there is an opportunity to carve out a spot on the team there. Brings Lane Pederson in to the conversation and talks about coaching against him in the AHL and how he put up big numbers last year with some NHL games. Sutter is hockey-sense personified but looking to re-establish himself. Its Gagner’s 3rd time around. They all have the mind-set of making the Oilers.
But they aren’t the only one’s – Hamblin played 10 games, Malone played games, Lavoie is looking for the taste at the NHL level.
9) How much do you watch other teams to learn – Alot of that work happens in the summer time. I’m not a big fan of giving away information. I study and work in order to pick things up from what other teams due successfully. We do alot of work in the summer and alot of time as coaching staff bandying it about.
10) Changes to staff: Ya, we lost Jeremy Coupal who was with us for 8-9 years. Wanted to go home to BC. Gave us the opportunity to change the complexion of our staff. Noah S. has moved up to the big chair as video coach. I’ve know Mike Fanelli for four years – he worked in the analytics department in Tampa and then coaching in the USHL – excited to bring him in.
I like to imagine your legal assistant is busy transcribing your dictation as you transcribe the Oilers interviews.
Thanks for this.
Fantastic OP!
Thank you
Much appreciated.
A little more on the Captain’s skates today from Gregor. Apparently today’s was open to some media at least (not sure if it was also for the general public).
Savoie, Griffith, Pickard, Rodrigue and all the main AHL Dmen were present by the sounds of it.
https://oilersnation.com/news/notes-from-edmonton-oilers-skate
The AHL’ers are necessary for something resembling a scrimmage.
Yes for sure, though I don’t think ALL of the AHLers were invited. So I think there may be significance to Savoie, for instance, being there since he had a really tough 1st pro year and he looks like a very long shot to see any NHL games this season.
I would think that anyone that has an NHL contract would be welcome but that’s just my presumption.
It interesting though while its more likely that Gagner plays games for the Oilers this season than Savoie, Savoie is under contract to the Oilers, Gagner could sign anywhere at any time.
Gregor has been saying that he’s hearing rumblings of the Oilers potentially signing a league min player still. Truth be told, they could actually sign a player for close to $1.2MM.
Anyways, he expressly mentioned Comtois today – I don’t think it was inside info as much as a player he likes. I’ve been posting about him for a while now as well as he’s got a history of producing in the league and does come with some jam and upside.
I though I read he was going to the Knight’s camp on a PTO but not sure that was ever made official.
Hmmm, who’s still un-signed? Looks like:
Forwards:
Tatar
Kessel
Parise
Staal
Ritchie
Stastny
Motte
Comtois
Aston-Reese
Stepan
Dmen:
Holden
Edler
(Toews and Kane too, but figured they aren’t in this conversation).
5 players are expected to be suspended by the NHL before training camps begin.
5 players from that list?
No.
Ok, that’s good to know, what’s the relevance to the list above?
Max Comtois was the captain of the 2018 WJ team and might be part of the discipline HH is referencing related to a sexual assault on female after a party. Basically he’s rumour mongering because no one knows for sure who the players are. Maybe shouldn’t cancel these guys so quickly until they are actually punished.
Oh they know..the announcement is expected shortly.
I’m guessing HH is bringing it up because he wants to give the impression there is significant urgency for the Oilers, a “fringe” playoff team, to sign someone quickly before other team(s) (all who are obviously better than the Oilers) have players suspended and need to grab people from this list. And whoever is grabbed from the list by another team will instantly be better than anyone in the Oilers bottom 9F or bottom 4D, and that the Oilers missed their chance, all because they “dithered” with Bouchard and Nurse.
There, I think I covered all of HH’s recent blatherings.
Brilliant!
Is this in relation to the Hockey Canada investigation or something else?
Yes.
I get he has a reputation for disappearing in the playoffs, but I’d want Tatar from that list. Perfect dude that can play up the depth chart during the regular season if need be.
“I get he has a reputation for disappearing in the playoffs…”
At first, I thought you were talking about HH there.
My bookie will confirm I never disappear in the playoffs.
Struck paydirt 3 seasons in a row.
Who you got this season?
Haha I wasn’t talking about betting. Another golden comment that shows your quality.
I was talking about you disappearing from this comment section after the Oilers beat LA in the first round, for two years in a row.
I would have been shocked if the Kings won…didn’t expect that at all.
I assume you are referring to your bookie having struck paydirt 3 seasons in a row given your record of prognostication……..
100%. At a price the Oilers can afford he’d be a really solid add.
Ryan:
I’d forgotten, but a main reason I didn’t look at GP initially was because of the Covid shortened seasons. I pro-rated those now and there is a GP drop for the goalies during and after their crap season:
Before 51GP
Crap 42GP
After 38GP
So while SV% returned to previous levels, the goalies played 13 fewer games on average. They weren’t exactly backups though.
There was a positive correlation (0.22) between GP and SV% in the ‘after’ season (also during the crap season – 0.33). I’m not sure why you’d want me to do a weighted average though, as that would just inflate the SV% for the ‘after’ season.
The examples from my data set who returned to a starters workload (I used 40+GP) and at least a league average SV% after their crap season were:
Andersen
Dubnyk
Greiss
Mrazek
Pavelic
Price
Quick
Smith
Varlamov
Thanks.
A few more questions and an idea.
First, what were your inclusion criteria, if you could remind me? Like you list Dubnyk as a player that has a slump year then returned to a starter’s workload, but Dubnyk was only 27 when he had his “if you hane to ask the question” year playing for the Oilers.
I didn’t think that it made sense to include players who slumped before age thirty as goalies supposedly stop improving once they’re 30. So the premise being it would be reasonable for a goalie under 30 to rebound, but less so for a goalie over 30.
Next, what about survivorship bias in terms of players who dropped out of the league after their slump year? How many players dropped off?
Lastly, I think many of your comps are unreasonable. Campbell’s certainly very unlikely to win the Vezina let alone play over 700 NHL games.
One way to correct for this would be to divide your players into career games played buckets, like 300 or less, 400 or less, etc or something like that, then look at the SV% numbers for each bucket.
It was all goalies of all ages who had a season 10+ SV% points below league average and followed it up with a 40+ game, league average or better SV% season. Their ages are here:
Andersen – 30
Dubnyk – 27
Greiss – 31
Mrazek – 25
Pavelic – 26
Price – 30
Quick – 34
Smith – 28
Varlamov – 28
In my original analysis I looked at the players binned by age (this is SV% points after vs. before the crap season:
26 and under +1.5
27-29 -2.0
30-32 0.0
33-25 +1.9
36 and older -3.2
There’s nothing there to suggest that goalies over 30-35 are less likely to rebound than the ones under 30 (and splitting hairs, the opposite would actually seem to be true).
There were 48 crap goalie seasons (with available before/after years, all with 20+ games) in the data set. There were an additional 15 crap seasons seasons where the goalie didn’t play another 20+ game season (ie – attrition). All of them were by goalies 33 or older:
4 at 33 (did not play at 34)
2 at 34
5 at 35
0 at 36
4 at 37 or older
That makes sense but the data set is from NST so only goes back to 07-08. Guys who’s careers started before that have their careers clipped (guess I could look them up individually but that’s a pain). And goalies who are still active also can’t be included because we don’t know where they’ll be by the end of their careers.
Another way to look for quality could be binning by SV% in the season before, though I guess that wouldn’t work for you since that would put Campbell in a ‘quality’ bin which is what you’re disagreeing with.
I think I did some bad math here:
It should read:
26 and under +1.5
27-29 +2.0
30-32 0.0
33-35 -1.9
36 and older -12.2
Not quite sure what happened there.
And a reminder that the average crap season SV% for these goalies was -15.2 (ie – .890 if league average was .905).
Nothing except:
That’s some evidence of survivorship bias right there. 🙂
89% of the players that rebounded to a starter’s workload were under age 31.
For the four old guys on your list, Price won a Vezina trophy, Quick was nominated twice, Andersen was widely considered a Vezina snub one year in Toronto, but he had multiple successful campaigns as a starter. Greiss had one season left in him as a starter (43 games played).
Despite what you think, I have no personal bias against Campbell. Father Time in hockey is kindest to the most talented. Campbell’s 31 and he’s only ever had one successful season as a starter. He played like crap last year and he’s on the books for four more years at $5m per. That’s not ideal.
Now it’s possible Campbell rebounds, but the question remains of what that would look like.
One really good season as a low volume starter like Greiss before falling off the cliff?
A couple years as a decent but severely overpriced backup?
Yeah we’ll have to wait and see.
You know that last year was Campbell’s age 30 season, right? And that the average age of the goalies I just listed is 29.
Sure, for goalies 33 and older.
Campbell was in the youngest 10% of the 30-32 age bin.
Those goalies fully recovered their SV% following their bad season, as well as averaging ~40GP.
Hilarious.
https://twitter.com/PKSubban1/status/1699495740924395661?s=20
This was soooo good.
@SportsnetSpec
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7m
Rafael Lavoie is not at the Oilers captain’s skate, but instead in Washington at an NHLPA event for rookie NHLers, I am told.
I like the jokers replying to that tweet saying that Lavoie should have been there if he wanted to make the league.
Ryan Fanti should be destined for Wichita, no?
I see him as the org’s #5
Yup, I think he should head there and hopefully get some good game time in. Not a great first year, but the jump to the AHL is real. Hopefully he can put in a solid building year in Wichita and who knows?
It’s Fort Wayne Komets. Fanti had decent numbers in the playoffs last year and could be moving up if he can translate the improvement into the year’s regular season.
Excellent. That’s great news, fingers firmly crossed.
I’m a few days late but RIP to WGR radio Buffalo Sabres pxp Rick Jeanneret. What a great voice over so many years. This is one of my faves:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvNy7pVCDLA
“Druuuuuuurrryy”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94oeUetzMVE
“Mayday Mayday Mayday !!!!”
Top 10 best calls ever from Down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier…. To the Giants win the pennant, the Giants win the pennant, the Giants win the pennant… The Mayday call will live on for eternity
I’m throwing Noel H. in the conversation (over Dineen) based on nothing more than a feeling, that he was signed out of the Leaf org and what I’ve read/seen show a player with good offensive skill who has also changed his game to provide secondary impact (6 fights last year and most of them standing up for teammates).
I look for Phil Kemp to get NHL games and, if he can be mobile enough to defend the rush and defend in-zone against shifty NHL forwards, there could be a diamond here – that dude is a smart smart smart hockey player.
The hope has to be that, when the time comes, the real prospects that have a chance this season (namely Tulio and Bourgault) have continued their progression enough that they get the call over the vets like Malone/Habmlin/Caggiula. If a call-up is needed in November, sure, the likes of Pederson and those AHL vets get the call but, if that call is in February, here is hoping Tulio and Bourgault have put themselves in to consideration.
I would suggest that Tulio got feature time when he was running hot (PP time) and for large chunks Philp was deployed as the #1C at evens.
Chaulk may have been slow to recognize and deploy in higher leverage but he got there at points.
Rodrigue had a great “put his name back on the map” season. Without looking, his numbers were similar to those of Pickard and he was a much mature goalie who didn’t stack bad goals on bad goals.
At the same time, the coaching staff kept deferring back to Pickard, even when Rodrigue was providing at least even tending. I think he got 29 games which is nice but I think he earned more.
I know the coaching staff needs to keep Pickard ready in case of an injury to Skinner or Cambell but I hope these two split, at least.
Agreed, I’d love to see Rodrigue and Pickard split the net this year. By geebus if there is an injury to the top pair it better be to Campbell!
Back to Rodrigue, I’ve liked what I’ve seen of him so far in his career and have hopes he can be a solid NHL backup to Skinner one day. That said I was also all in on Wells and that didn’t quite shake out the way I hoped. Goalies are voodoo…..
Goalies are voodoo…..
==================
It’s a great line without doubt but I am not sure how true it is. The thing with goalies is that any weakness whatsoever can be either a serious limiting factor or a career ender and I am not sure it is fully appreciated how much video has amplified that.
As a forward you can have a muffin shot or be a lazy back checker or not be very good along the boards etc. and still have some kind of career if you have a really strong skill such as a great shot or plus skater. There is a top six and a bottom six – or a middle six these days – for different strengths and weaknesses.
For dmen it is just standard to split them into two way, offensive or defensive types recognizing that only one of those three groups has no huge deficiencies. You can have a long and pretty good career in the NHL with any of those designations.
You don’t really get that with goalies.
You sometimes hear them referred to as reflex or positional but once the talk turns to weaknesses you know the career is in jeopardy. When the video coach tells you to “shoot high, glove hand” or “can’t close the five hole” gets mentioned and the goals start going in the NHL jobs disappear in a hurry.
Goalies are elite when they have exceptional ability, are NHL employable when they “stop the ones they should” – or close to it for backups – and reassessing their career choices once an obvious weakness that coaching cannot fix is identified.
It’s one of the reasons I was so sure about Skinner. I don’t see ‘elite’ so much as solid. He should have a long career in the NHL in some capacity.
Campbell is different. He plays elite and then he loses it. He can win you games when the team doesn’t have it and lose you games that should have been won. He fits into the one odd category that is used to talk about goalies – the head case or mental category and I don’t use them as necessarily pejorative terms.
Lenner is/was the poster boy for the former designation. Campbell seems to be more on the ‘confidence’ side of things. You hear the confidence thing about goal scorers as well but a goal scorer that goes 8 games without a goal is probably still playing somewhere in the line up. Goalies who lose you 8 games in a row because of bad goals? Not so much.
So to end this long ramble. The thing to look for in goalies isn’t what they are good at so much as what they are bad at. That alone removes a lot of the voodoo as well as explaining a lot of the ‘2nd season’ dip that Ryan and JP are currently engaged in imo.
Those are all great points, and an interesting way of looking at it.
You’d hope that goalies as time moves on would be able to use the tape on themselves to work out those kinks in their game though. We’re into the days now where they’re all pretty much peak athletes so technique should be possible to work on, the body mechanics should be there.
Still you’re right, a forward or d-man can still have a career even if there’s one thing they don’t do well.
I should know that from tennis. I suck at overheads, but I can still win matches without them or even if I do decide to Djokovic them straight into the net every time.
Ty Tulio went on a couple of offensive heaters last season and, hot damn, if he isn’t a player to be excited about. He’s a Brendan Gallagher lite to my eye and he’s got some offensive skill to be back it up and a bomb of a shot (with a crazy release) when he’s got space.
I might be fantasizing but I put Tulio right up with Bourgault as a “real prospect” that has a chance to be in the conversation for call-up if a middle six forward is needed later in the season.
I enjoyed the Gally lite line there. Hockeydb has him listed as: Height 5.10 — Weight 165 [178 cm/75 kg]
Gallagher is listed as: 5.09 — Weight 186 [175 cm/84 kg]
So, literally a lite Gallagher.
I like Tullio a lot as well, if he turns into half of what Montreal have had in Gallagher it’s a homerun winner for the scouts. Don’t get why you’re getting downvoted so much on this either, he’s a real prospect.
Agree with this statement and would also note the clear progression and development for each player through the season.
Lavoie’s “lightbulb moment” around Christmas is well documented but there have been more than one account regarding that tough love relationship through the season.
Philp started the season as an after-though, playing wing on the 4th line or watching from the press-box. By the end of the season he was approaching 20 goals, playing in all situations as a center and a huge part of the team (and my favorite prospect). There are accounts of the team working him in to the center position and working on some structural parts of his down-low game in the defensive zone with paths and angles.
I have to give the coach kudos for this.