The Oilers in 2022-23 brought Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Vincent Desharnais and Markus Niemelainen to the NHL. That’s a strong rookie crop, the best since Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod a couple of years ago. This season? Well, it’s a work in progress.
The Oilers are after a famous player at the deadline, it's in Ken Holland's DNA. There are names available who could help Edmonton. Costly past trades mean ALL valuable/inexpensive youth will be in play.
Total rookies of interest: Seven, but none are locks and all but one are at least some distance away from being NHL players based on last year’s performances. Xavier Bourgault is the first round pick, plus there’s Raphael Lavoie, Tyler Tullio and Carter Savoie pushing from Bakersfield. Matvey Petrov, Olivier Rodrigue and Phil Kemp are also worth noting this early in the proceedings.
2023 draft notes: The Oilers had just three picks. Beau Akey was an astute choice in the second round, and later on center Matt Copponi was the choice and there are some interesting things about him.
Best player as a rookie: I’ll suggest Lavoie has the edge now. I know there’s plenty of talk about the contract, but he’ll get a full shot in training camp and I suspect will emerge as a real roster candidate. So much of rookie success depends on opportunity, Lavoie has the edge.
Second best player: Bourgault is a first-round selection, so gets the nod here. I was impressed with his rookie season, he could help himself with some goals in preseason before heading to Bakersfield.
Oldest rookie: Phil Kemp and Noel Hoefenmayer are 24, would be the oldest among the group we’re expecting to be in the mix.
Most unusual story: Hoefenmayer has had an unusual path in pro hockey but I think there’s a player here. His performance with the Toronto Marlies last season should have him on your radar. Noah Philp’s retirement is unusual in a different way.
Longest NHL career: Bourgault. Always bet on the first-round pick. His season may not seem like a player knocking on the door, but his points-game in the AHL (.554) isn’t so far away from Dylan Holloway or Kailer Yamamoto (both .667) and is better than Raphael Lavoie (.464) managed in his rookie season. I think we might be looking at a player in Bourgault who has more range, but enough skill to land an NHL job in the next 18 months.
Anything else? Ken Holland’s system has some mystery to it, so there’s a flock of players we have to at least ponder in terms of a possible NHL future. Ryan Fanti didn’t have a strong pro debut, but that doesn’t bury him as it might have in the past. In Holland’s minor-league system, Fanti has thrown about six warmup pitches.
SECOND LOOK (now)
Total rookies of interest: Just two of the seven original names (Raphael Lavoie and Phil Kemp) made it to the NHL in the first half. Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov and Olivier Rodrigue await recall. Not listed were James Hamblin (who has played) and Ben Gleason (a recall but 0 games so far).
2023 draft notes: Beau Akey is a promising player who isn’t healthy, Matt Copponi is a promising player drafted late and running well ahead of expectations.
Best player as a rookie: James Hamblin is a useful fourth-line center. He does not bring enough offense to project as an NHL regular. That doesn’t sound impressive, but his making the NHL at all is a victory for the player and the scouts who stuck their necks out to get him signed.
Second best player: Lavoie and Kemp are just finding their way, no winner here but they made it and both have some things to recommend them. Their NHL story is either just getting started, at the midway point, or done.
Oldest rookie: Phil Kemp is just a few months older than James Hamblin.
Most unusual story: Hamblin. He made it. 41 NHL games. That’s more than Tyler Benson.
Longest NHL career: Bourgault. Always bet on the first-round pick.
Anything else? It could be some time before we see a single season with the quality of Skinner, Broberg, Holloway, Desharnais and Niemelainen. I think Lavoie holds the key for this year’s group.
HOLLAND’S ROOKIES
Since 2019, Edmonton rookies are trending in a specific direction. The players arrive as fringe NHL contributors, and the official rookie season is often the second one. Here are the Holland rookies from first to Kemp, and their initial debut seasons and games in brackets:
Ethan Bear 71GP 2019-20 (18 games in 2017-18)
Caleb Jones 43GP 2019-20 (17 games in 2018-19)
Joel Persson 17GP 2019-20
Tyler Benson 29GP 2021-22 (7 games in 2019-20)
William Lagesson 19GP 2020-21 (8 games in 2019-20)
Evan Bouchard 14GP 2020-21 (7 games in 2018-19)
Ryan McLeod 71GP 2021-22 (10 games in 2020-21)
Cooper Marody 1GP 2021-22 (6 games in 2018-19)
Dmitri Samorukov 1GP 2021-22
Dylan Holloway 51GP 2022-23 (1 playoff game in 2021-22)
Stuart Skinner 50GP 2022-23 (one game in 2020-21, 13 games in 2021-22)
Philip Broberg 45GP 2022-23 (23 games in 2021-22)
Vincent Desharnais 36GP 2022-23
Markus Niemelainen 23GP 2022-23 (20 games in 2021-22)
Matt Berlin 1GP 2022-23
James Hamblin 31GP 2023-24 (10 games in 2022-23)
Raphael Lavoie 7GP 2023-24
Phil Kemp 1GP 2023-24
The players underlined are 200+ games, Ryan McLeod will get there later this season. The italics men are the lone full season Jay Woodcroft was coach. He was the Condors coach before he arrived with the Oilers, and he elevated five men in a single season. At least two of those men were unusual enough to need someone to give them a look, Woodcroft obliged. We don’t have the story on Kris Knoblauch and young players yet, although I do like the very early days of Dylan Holloway’s career with the new coach.
2024 TOP 5 PROSPECTS
This is so late starting, but it’s been a strange year covering the Oilers. Fires everywhere, good and bad. Edmonton won’t get a chance at any of these men, but we’ll eventually reach the players who will be available when the team makes a selection.
Macklin Celebrini, LC, Boston University. 21, 17-16-33. 51 NHLE. The complete package, projects as an NHL center who can play 200 feet and be an impact offensive player.
LD Zeev Buium, Denver Pioneers. 24, 7-26-33. 49 NHLE. I have him higher than any list, but math compels me to to so. This fellow is an elite offensive player. Scott Wheeler likes his coverage defensively. I don’t think it’s wise to have him as low as some of the major rankings do, suspect it has something to do with physicality. I love this player’s resume.
Artyom Levshunov, RD, Michigan State. 26, 7-19-26. 27 NHLE. He’s an October birthday. RH defender with size and speed, very mobile. Raw defensively but Scott Wheeler describes a quick learner.
Ivan Demidov, RW, St. Petersburg SKA. One of those Russian wizard wingers with great creativity. He has battled injury and could slide by the final list. Grant McCagg called him a more complete Alex Kovalev.
Cayden Lindstrom, LC, Medicine Hat Tigers. 32, 27-19-46. 36 NHLE. Big center and an excellent skater. From the WHL team that has produced excellent NHL centers (Trevor Linden, Tom Lysiak, Rob Niedermayer, Stan Weir), Lindstrom looks fairly complete. He is not an elite offensive player according to NHLE.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic will be our feature guest today, we’ll also have the latest NHL trade rumours and look at CFL free agency. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Here is my latest For Funsies Points Prediction, for predicted point standings at the trade deadline March 8 Hope you get a giggle from it.
Minnesota 64 points
Nashville 74 points
St Louis 64 points
Edmonton 84 points
Los Angeles 72 points
Seattle 66 points
Vancouver 87 points
Vegas 82 points.
Let’s enjoy this awesome roller coaster ride this year. I’ve never seen a year quite like it…
Tarkus
January 30, 2024 7:11 pm
Summarizing!
Lachance failed to incur soup, and so shall have to content himself a raw turnip from the back of the fridge.
Prospecting takes a break until Frigg’s Day.
Munny 2.0
January 30, 2024 6:21 pm
There’s only one way for HH to prove his thesis that the Canucks are setting a new standard in shooting as a team… a new sustainable mean. And as ALL the data we have has shown that phenomenon has never happened before, the onus of proof is on hm. Assertions or silly rhetoric like “what are the odds that all Canucks are seeing a bump concurently…” are simply meaningless. Laughable.”
If he wants to prove that there is new higher mean there, he needs to show reasons. The most obvious to my mind is that the Canucks are getting more open looks than has ever occurred before via their system. Now that is typically easily defeated by the fact there’s nothing special or unique about Tocchet’s system. But I’m willing to cut HH a break IF he can show us data.
that is, actual data showing the number of open looks their players are getting compared to other teams today and Canuckle teams in the past.
Otherwise you’re just blowing troll air and make for an easy scroll-by.
Yep. He’s probably some middle aged dude whose kids won’t talk to him, who’s been rejected by women, or has been ousted from his job. Coming in here and comparing the Oilers to one of his cherry picked rotating top 6 other teams and debating gives him the attention he needs to satisfy his narcissistic ways.
Calgary was a fun rival and gave us a memorable 5-game series, and now they’ve sh!t the bed and are irrelevant.
I’m okay with Canucks fans signing obnoxious along to their dumb 80’s goal song all regular season and watch with interest when they try to adapt to playoff hockey.
I will say, if he is right and the Canucks can get to the end of the year with even 4 forwards shooting over 20% that’s damn impressive. It’s improbable. But impressive.
To borrow a Canuckian thing: Strength of schedule is a thing. Vancouver have quite the run in.
I can understand though if not, especially if you’re a Lions fan, but there’s some good stuff in there about what was working for you guys from the first half. And, there’s no hockey right now, so watcha gonna do…?
Scungilli Slushy
January 30, 2024 3:19 pm
The Dys Puck IQ page is not impressive given their run. Neither is the Bruins or the Avs
The Jets isn’t bad – Ours on the other hand is legendary
northerndancer
January 30, 2024 12:21 pm
LT, your blog has taught me much about the precarious fortunes of aspiring hockey players – with few elite exceptions . Brilliant young players, full of promise, are tossed around by the winds of opportunity, timing and so many other intangibles. Good and bad. Injuries, available openings, changes in management and much more are added to the players’ own physical skills, maturity and such. A good reminder that a James Hamblin, whose NHL career may never be remembered by anyone other than those reading this blog, is still one hell of a hockey player. (Unless he returns as The Pisani!)
Elgin R
January 30, 2024 11:15 am
I believe that the Oilers will finish 2nd or 3rd in the division. I do not think they will catch VAN and do not want them going hard at the end, do just enough to finish 2nd. Need the team to be rested and healthy for the playoffs!
Looking at the division games (2nd vs 3rd) for 5 of the last 7 years (I did not include 2019 – 2020 or 2020 – 2021) to see if finishing 2nd really matters.
20 playoff series: 5 years of 2nd vs 3rd in each of the 4 divisions
4 upsets of 3rd place beating 2nd place – so 20% (Note: STL was 3 of those!)
Average # of home wins by the victors = 2.15
7 of the 20 series went 7 games: 5 were won by the 2nd place team
Conclusion: 80% overall win rate and 71% of 7-game series won by the 2nd place team. Therefore, it appears that winning the series outcome DOES correlate to finishing 2nd so need the Oilers to finish above VGK! GOG
It is not really possible for the OIlers to be rested for the playoffs when they make up all their games in hand in the last month and the last week of the season.
And with the new post trade deadline callup rules.
It is why they should have been integrating Broberg all along the way into 7D play a different six each game.
To the original post, the Oilers are 12 points behind Vancouver with 4 games in hand. Vancouver is the ultimate regression candidate. I believe Boston set the record with a 103.6 PDO last year, Vancouver is currently riding a 104.4. Vancouver’s Goal% vs. xGoal% is 60.3% to 50.6%, Oilers are 54.3% to 57.5%.
Math doesn’t tell the whole story, but it is screaming for the Oilers to make up ground on the Canucks.
So you think JT Miller will always have that high of a shooting percentage going forward? If the Canucks continue to use the same system, this shooting % will be repeatable correct?
I think 100 shots is not a near large enough sample size to establish a new mean. If this is a new Miller, (in the past he ranges from 12-16%) then 100 shots is not enough to know.
However, one might argue the a mean has been established, and yes regression towards the mean is a thing.
It’s certainly possible for the Oilers to catch Van, but as much as I don’t agree w/HH there is something to say about the way VAN plays under Tocchet that suggests that they are not just the product of a heater.
They are 53-23-9 since he became the coach last year. They are very structured in their own zone. They’re getting depth scoring – so it’s not just being driven by one line. Demko is having a bounce back year.
That said (and I posted this a couple weeks ago), the playoffs are a different story. We saw last year that NJ had a great regular season as did Boston. Year before, Florida was great. Playoff adversity is not something you can manufacture in the regular season, so until they do it in the playoffs, I would not be planning a parade.
But it would not surprise me if they finished first in the Pacific.
I get what you’re saying, but allow me to counter with:
Hoglander: S% 22.6 Career S% 11.7
Boeser: S% 22.4 Career S% 13.7
Miller: S% 21.0 Career S% 14.8
Joshua: S% 20.7 Career S% 16
Lafferty: S% 20.4 Career S% 10.3
Suter: S% 20.3 Career S% 12.4
Pettersson: S% 19.7 Career S% 17.1
I’ll give you Pettersson as he’s obviously quality. The rest though, do you really think that there’s not an element of luck involved here and that the worm could turn?
I mean hats off to Ferraro if he levelled up all these guys by simply saying: “My dudes, just shoot better”.
I recall you saying Ferraro’s analysis was that the Canucks prefer to play in the offensive zone and don’t do volume shooting where they are more selective in their shots. This doesn’t sound like a unique approach as other teams try to do this as well.
Do you think this is unique compared to other teams? Or what about Vancouver’s system structure makes them unique?
Again, if this is by design for so many players to be shooting >=20%, are you saying this is repeatable going forward?
— you realize that 7 players with shooting %s @ 20% is the definition of luck. There has never been a team with 2 players who played 60+ games in a season that both had over 20% in a season. Ever. The all time greatest sh% in career is Craig Simpson @23%.
— So yeah for sure they are not going to have 7 players do 20% if they play for the whole season: that’s a mathematical guarantee
— Probably the best point for why it’s extremely likely that Vancouver won’t continue at same pace: they can’t continue to score at same rate
You often make good points. If it were an oil fan making these points…they may be called astute. Not sure why you receive so much disrespect on this blog. You know your stats. Back up your statements with them and are generally courteous and respectful of ALL those on here throwing you shade.
However; I’m uncertain why you keep coming back. Is it to try and convert Oiler fans into Nuck fans? Or, are you simply a “devil’s advocate” kinda guy?
Just Remember…that tea isn’t served in either Calgary, or Vancouver because there simply aren’t enough cups.
The bottom line, the ultimate stat, is cups won.
Thus the Edmonton Oilers are the best Canadian team over the last 40+ years.
While it’s unlikely, I still think there is a chance the Oil catch the Canucks. We are 12 pts behind with 4 games in hand – not good. However, Vancouver is bound to hit a bad run of games at some point. They have seven players with +20% shooting percentage. That’s not even close to being sustainable. They routinely get outshot and Demko has been outstanding. I’ll be stunned if they don’t hit a bad stretch of games.
The underlying numbers are not top end, still the Pony could run for the rest of the season. I suspect a does of reality might cool some players off though, as doubt creeps back in
It’ll be beauty when next season is more normal and things go wacky with their media and bandwagoners, if not sooner
I was just going to bring up the Kraken last year.
Citing all these individuals with high shooting percentages is very similar to citing the Kraken having the highest 5 on 5 team shooting percentage in league history.
Taking a look, it seems the Kraken did not sustain that……. weird.
You see, it’s all due to the Canucks revolutionary system which is:
-keep puck in offensive zone
-don’t just throw the puck away
How that is different than all the other teams in the league who play the same way? We’ll have to wait for Ferraro to elaborate further because HH can only parrott so much.
I live in remote BC (secret location) and watch the Canucks often. While not unique there operation in the O zone seems to be very dynamic with their defense and more an umbrella than a set of 2 on the back end. The play isn’t so much up the side walls and around behind the net as it is from sidewall to D, back to sidewall, D, rotation of D, rotation of sidewall etc. It starts with Hughes who is both elusive and smart and has a great shot. But one player is relatively high up each half wall, and and as Hughes moves across the Blue line the umbrella rotates. More like a PP than some/many teams. It tends to strain/tempt and impatient zone D as they (nucks) look for seams and they do have some good shooters who can take advantage of the openings. And Hughes is never afraid to challenge the D. Not necessarily unique but works well with their top two lines. And Demko has been steal-lar. Hughes is an offensive superstar. I don’t think this system works without someone with his mobility, skills and suck. He is not Connor level but worth the price of admission. I think teams in the playoffs will have time to prepare and strategize for this.
Yes, of course, I will hope for that too but it would be pretty shocking if that happens.
The Knucks will likely slow down but, of course, so will the Oilers, if we are being honest.
kinger_OIL
January 30, 2024 11:03 am
— This year in sports is shaping up like a Time Machine when I was a kid in the 80s in the sports I loved most
1) Oil have best player on the planet and team doing record breaking stuff
2) 49ers in Super Bowl
3) Curling legend Howard in the Brier
4) Jays making playoffs consistently but not yet putting it together
— The big hole in sporting though in this Time Machine has been boxing : 80s early 90s was peak with all the middle weights : hagler hearns Leonard Duran etc and of course Mike Tyson. I miss boxing : never got into MMA.
I miss boxing too. The time frame you speak of was peak boxing in my adult lifetime Tyson, Lewis, Holyfield in the heavyweight division. With the legends you mentioned followed up with Dela Hoya, Trinidad, Vargas, Mosley. Then Barrera, Morales and Paqiou had some great fights..along with my personal favorite Arturo Gatti.
I would never miss a ppv at that time. Later soured on the sport as there were just too many fights that either didn’t,live up to the hype, or were blatant fixes. That and every time you turned around there was a new sanctioning body with a new champion that would never fight the other “champions” Slowly lost interest and honestly Don’t think I could name 5 current champions in all divisions combined
— yeah all the interest went into MMA. Mayweather the last of the greats.
— of top of head I know Fury and Joshua Anthony that’s about it. Boxing is so fringe now.
— I’ve got a photo of me and Hector Macho Comacho (RIP) in Vegas where I almost got into an altercation with him as he skipped to front of line for a Pete Rose autograph session. I was with buddies and some hotties with us trying to impress mid day drink on and this guy and entourage just whisked by me. So I beaked off saying who the hell does this guy think he is.
— But others in line behind me recognized him so they started to laugh and oh and ah. I’m next in line and Pete rose asks what was that kerfufful. I told him I’m probably going to get tuned up as soon as he signs my ball by comacho. Pete signs my ball “Good luck Kinger”
— Hector and his entourage is waiting at end of room, I look up he’s got a big grin on his face. So we chat for a bit and I went through his fights : early loss to Trinidad his tko of Sugar Ray. Duran fights etc. He was impressed. So I’ve got this framed baseball signed by Peter Rose with a photo of Hector playfully giving me an uppercut.
Haha, great story! Camacho was a great fighter in his own right. Great tactician without the big punching power. Had to use his impressive skills to earn his wins..
I went down to Vegas in 07 and attended Pacqiao vs Barrearra 2 at Mandalay bay. Fight itself wasn’t as action packed as their first fight, but the atmosphere in the stadium was amazing to be a part of. Thousands of Philipinos and Mexicans cheering on their respective fighters. Both nations treat boxers like we do our NHL stars. Maybe even more passionate. Was a great night, I will always remember
I miss Sean O’Sullivan , especially his amazing bout in the Commonwealth Games. And Scotty Olson. O’Sullivan had the quickest hands…. it was poetry when he was on fire.
Ivan Demidov, RW, St. Petersburg SKA. One of those Russian wizard wingers with great creativity. He has battled injury and could slide by the final list. Grant McCagg called him a more complete Alex Kovalev.
High praise! Kovalev is one of only 34 members of the 1000 point, 1000 PIM club.
I loved Zeev Buium in the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Or maybe he was at Jabba’s Palace.
Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR
January 30, 2024 9:28 am
That Hamblin has more games than Benson surprises me. I’ve been paying attention, but I had high hopes for Benson on draft day. Without googling it, I have no clue how Hamblin even got here. Good on Hamblin for forcing his way into the picture!
Yes, agreed – odd comment by Godot, who knows what he’s talking about (even if I disagree with his analysis on certain things). Benson changed his game through his pro development more than any prospect I can think of off the top of my head.
Signed to a 2-year minor-league contract after his over-age season at Medicine Hat, his third as captain of the Tigers in which he finished third in WHL scoring.
Signed to an NHL deal (2-year ELC) late in his second season in Bakersfield on 2022 Mar 02, same day that Vince Desharnais also got upgraded to an NHL pact.
Played 10 games with Oilers as an injury call-up last season & 31 GP this.
An Edmonton native, Hamblin played on the same powerhouse bantam team (South Side Athletic Club Lions) as both Benson & Stu Skinner.
That he has more NHL games than Benson surprises me as well.
McSorley33
January 30, 2024 9:03 am
A week and a half break in the middle of the season?…..I don’t get it. Its like a hiatus for the league. ( assume placeholding for Olympics etc, )
A bit ridiculous in imo.
Surprised tv audiences don’t dip on the return ( not strong Canadian markets obv) …
Customers ( not die hards) get used to not seeing or tuning in – there are other things to entertain themselves.
My wife (and the cat) are very appreciative of the break – they don’t have to listen to loud renditions of ‘THATS A PENALTY’ for a while. It also gives me time to get some work done around the house and get some more hours in at the paying job.
The casual fans in the USA should return post Superbowl if their local teams are doing well. The ‘Bettman’ points structure keeps teams ‘in-the-hunt for a Wild Card berth’ longer so that will help as it was designed to do.
Hockey’s version of the bye week, except all the teams get it at nearly the same time (either immediately before or immediately after the All-Star break). Makes for a thin schedule, this week especially.
Its the CBA mandated 5-day bye week that the players negotiated – they schedule it right before or after the all-star break.
Nothing to do with the Olympics, per se, but what the players negotiated in to the CBA.
OriginalPouzar
January 30, 2024 9:03 am
2023 draft notes: Beau Akey is a promising player who isn’t healthy, Matt Copponi is a promising player drafted late and running well ahead of expectations.
I know he was a 2022 draft (or was it 2021?) but I put LaChance in a similar category as he is a rookie in the NCAA and he is getting legit ice (PP time mostly) on a very good NCAA team from a prominent org and putting up crooked numbers.
Miles to go on both these players, and I don’t know what their offence at this stage of their development mean, but both are earning pro contracts in due course. Given where they were drafted, if either get an ELC, that’s likely a draft in already.
Total rookies of interest: Seven, but none are locks and all but one are at least some distance away from being NHL players based on last year’s performances. Xavier Bourgault is the first round pick, plus there’s Raphael Lavoie, Tyler Tullio and Carter Savoie pushing from Bakersfield. Matvey Petrov, Olivier Rodrigue and Phil Kemp are also worth noting this early in the proceedings.
Max Wanner?
He’s got the straightest up arrow of them all, no?
Last time I checked Sather was the GM. 99 was the best player who ever played no doubt about it, but get serious he was not the GM or even a scout. Slats built the teams – Gretzky, along with Messier et al, took care of the room and play on the ice.
YYCOil
January 30, 2024 8:53 am
If Rodrigue had been given the Pickard opportunity and delivered the exact same numbers. How good would we be feeling about our goaltending?
Worse probably since people would be complaining that Rodrigue isn’t getting enough starts to develop properly, while two veteran goalies are seeing more rubber in the AHL.
Rodrigue is exactly where he needs to be and we feel great about his development into one of the top goalie prospects outside the NHL.
Now about that Campbell contract …
Tarkus
January 30, 2024 8:50 am
Prospectance!
The spotlight shines solely on Shane Lachance, who is enjoying a solid if unspectacular freshman campaign. Sixth in team scoring, he has put up 8-7-15 in 23 GP with a SH% of 14.8.
He gets Lachance to further pad his totals when the puck drops at 4:30 p.m. Egremont time.
Here is my latest For Funsies Points Prediction, for predicted point standings at the trade deadline March 8 Hope you get a giggle from it.
Minnesota 64 points
Nashville 74 points
St Louis 64 points
Edmonton 84 points
Los Angeles 72 points
Seattle 66 points
Vancouver 87 points
Vegas 82 points.
Let’s enjoy this awesome roller coaster ride this year. I’ve never seen a year quite like it…
Summarizing!
Lachance failed to incur soup, and so shall have to content himself a raw turnip from the back of the fridge.
Prospecting takes a break until Frigg’s Day.
There’s only one way for HH to prove his thesis that the Canucks are setting a new standard in shooting as a team… a new sustainable mean. And as ALL the data we have has shown that phenomenon has never happened before, the onus of proof is on hm. Assertions or silly rhetoric like “what are the odds that all Canucks are seeing a bump concurently…” are simply meaningless. Laughable.”
If he wants to prove that there is new higher mean there, he needs to show reasons. The most obvious to my mind is that the Canucks are getting more open looks than has ever occurred before via their system. Now that is typically easily defeated by the fact there’s nothing special or unique about Tocchet’s system. But I’m willing to cut HH a break IF he can show us data.
that is, actual data showing the number of open looks their players are getting compared to other teams today and Canuckle teams in the past.
Otherwise you’re just blowing troll air and make for an easy scroll-by.
That’s what we do here. We don’t just invent theories out of thin air. Data. It’s a thing.
I think most of Descartes’ theories were made out of dirty bath water and candle wax.
Yet everyone still responds to him….
Proven wrong he just cherry-picks another stat from one of his other 30 favorite teams.
Yep. He’s probably some middle aged dude whose kids won’t talk to him, who’s been rejected by women, or has been ousted from his job. Coming in here and comparing the Oilers to one of his cherry picked rotating top 6 other teams and debating gives him the attention he needs to satisfy his narcissistic ways.
Honestly, good for Vancouver.
Calgary was a fun rival and gave us a memorable 5-game series, and now they’ve sh!t the bed and are irrelevant.
I’m okay with Canucks fans signing obnoxious along to their dumb 80’s goal song all regular season and watch with interest when they try to adapt to playoff hockey.
When the rubber hits the road.
I will say, if he is right and the Canucks can get to the end of the year with even 4 forwards shooting over 20% that’s damn impressive. It’s improbable. But impressive.
To borrow a Canuckian thing: Strength of schedule is a thing. Vancouver have quite the run in.
Curious how you explain Boston having a PDO well of 1000 3 seasons in a row,
If you’re interested in the tape analysis of last weekend’s Lions-Niners tilt, here you go. I know there are several Niner fans that comment here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBRxEli4MJM
I can understand though if not, especially if you’re a Lions fan, but there’s some good stuff in there about what was working for you guys from the first half. And, there’s no hockey right now, so watcha gonna do…?
The Dys Puck IQ page is not impressive given their run. Neither is the Bruins or the Avs
The Jets isn’t bad – Ours on the other hand is legendary
LT, your blog has taught me much about the precarious fortunes of aspiring hockey players – with few elite exceptions . Brilliant young players, full of promise, are tossed around by the winds of opportunity, timing and so many other intangibles. Good and bad. Injuries, available openings, changes in management and much more are added to the players’ own physical skills, maturity and such. A good reminder that a James Hamblin, whose NHL career may never be remembered by anyone other than those reading this blog, is still one hell of a hockey player. (Unless he returns as The Pisani!)
I believe that the Oilers will finish 2nd or 3rd in the division. I do not think they will catch VAN and do not want them going hard at the end, do just enough to finish 2nd. Need the team to be rested and healthy for the playoffs!
Looking at the division games (2nd vs 3rd) for 5 of the last 7 years (I did not include 2019 – 2020 or 2020 – 2021) to see if finishing 2nd really matters.
Conclusion: 80% overall win rate and 71% of 7-game series won by the 2nd place team. Therefore, it appears that winning the series outcome DOES correlate to finishing 2nd so need the Oilers to finish above VGK! GOG
It is not really possible for the OIlers to be rested for the playoffs when they make up all their games in hand in the last month and the last week of the season.
And with the new post trade deadline callup rules.
It is why they should have been integrating Broberg all along the way into 7D play a different six each game.
What are the new callup rules?
To the original post, the Oilers are 12 points behind Vancouver with 4 games in hand. Vancouver is the ultimate regression candidate. I believe Boston set the record with a 103.6 PDO last year, Vancouver is currently riding a 104.4. Vancouver’s Goal% vs. xGoal% is 60.3% to 50.6%, Oilers are 54.3% to 57.5%.
Math doesn’t tell the whole story, but it is screaming for the Oilers to make up ground on the Canucks.
Suggesting regression is inevitable after 50 games is s bit desperate.
A couple of weeks ago I posted a summation of Ray Ferraro analysis of the Canucks PDO which he suggested is more of a function of system play.
I won’t post it all again but here’s a clue.
JT Miller is 5th in league scoring with 67 points including 21 goals.
Miller has a 21% shooting percentage because he’s focusing on shot type not quantity.
Miller has only 100 shots on goal while David Pastrnak has 248.
So you think JT Miller will always have that high of a shooting percentage going forward? If the Canucks continue to use the same system, this shooting % will be repeatable correct?
‘it’s different this time’
“All of the high shooting percentages for players are unsustainable unless they play for the team that I like”
I think 100 shots is not a near large enough sample size to establish a new mean. If this is a new Miller, (in the past he ranges from 12-16%) then 100 shots is not enough to know.
However, one might argue the a mean has been established, and yes regression towards the mean is a thing.
Miller is a quality shooter. He’s a career 14.8%
Still, he shot 22% in 2017-8 for Tampa and followed that up with 12% the following year for the same team.
Miller is turning 31 on pi day. This will be only the second season in his career (if he maintains), that he’s shot over 20%.
He had 22% in 19 games for TB. Not exactly a large number of games.
It’s certainly possible for the Oilers to catch Van, but as much as I don’t agree w/HH there is something to say about the way VAN plays under Tocchet that suggests that they are not just the product of a heater.
They are 53-23-9 since he became the coach last year. They are very structured in their own zone. They’re getting depth scoring – so it’s not just being driven by one line. Demko is having a bounce back year.
That said (and I posted this a couple weeks ago), the playoffs are a different story. We saw last year that NJ had a great regular season as did Boston. Year before, Florida was great. Playoff adversity is not something you can manufacture in the regular season, so until they do it in the playoffs, I would not be planning a parade.
But it would not surprise me if they finished first in the Pacific.
Thank you for my daily dose of ‘Broberg should be in the NHL’.
Vancouver is a good team.
Vancouver is on a streak.
Vancouver is lucky.
More than one, and in fact all three, can be true at the same time.
Vancouver has 7 players with a shooting percentage above or near 20%.
What are the odds that ALL of these players will get “lucky” at the same time under a new coach with a new system?
I would concur with Ferraro that there’s more than luck at work here.
I get what you’re saying, but allow me to counter with:
Hoglander: S% 22.6 Career S% 11.7
Boeser: S% 22.4 Career S% 13.7
Miller: S% 21.0 Career S% 14.8
Joshua: S% 20.7 Career S% 16
Lafferty: S% 20.4 Career S% 10.3
Suter: S% 20.3 Career S% 12.4
Pettersson: S% 19.7 Career S% 17.1
I’ll give you Pettersson as he’s obviously quality. The rest though, do you really think that there’s not an element of luck involved here and that the worm could turn?
I mean hats off to Ferraro if he levelled up all these guys by simply saying: “My dudes, just shoot better”.
Absolutely some good fortune involved but that kind of sustained perforce by a large group of players over parts of two seasons is notable.
And Ferraro did not say shoot better but was commenting on the Canucks,shooting less and maximizing their opportunities.
And how do the Canucks maximize their opportunities compared to other teams?
Riddle me this. How many of these guys have a contract next year?
I recall you saying Ferraro’s analysis was that the Canucks prefer to play in the offensive zone and don’t do volume shooting where they are more selective in their shots. This doesn’t sound like a unique approach as other teams try to do this as well.
Do you think this is unique compared to other teams? Or what about Vancouver’s system structure makes them unique?
Again, if this is by design for so many players to be shooting >=20%, are you saying this is repeatable going forward?
— you realize that 7 players with shooting %s @ 20% is the definition of luck. There has never been a team with 2 players who played 60+ games in a season that both had over 20% in a season. Ever. The all time greatest sh% in career is Craig Simpson @23%.
— So yeah for sure they are not going to have 7 players do 20% if they play for the whole season: that’s a mathematical guarantee
— Probably the best point for why it’s extremely likely that Vancouver won’t continue at same pace: they can’t continue to score at same rate
Wow. He believes in fairy tales. :P:P
You often make good points. If it were an oil fan making these points…they may be called astute. Not sure why you receive so much disrespect on this blog. You know your stats. Back up your statements with them and are generally courteous and respectful of ALL those on here throwing you shade.
However; I’m uncertain why you keep coming back. Is it to try and convert Oiler fans into Nuck fans? Or, are you simply a “devil’s advocate” kinda guy?
Just Remember…that tea isn’t served in either Calgary, or Vancouver because there simply aren’t enough cups.
The bottom line, the ultimate stat, is cups won.
Thus the Edmonton Oilers are the best Canadian team over the last 40+ years.
PERIOD.
You must be new here.
Was gonna say it was HH logged in as another user, until he said the Oilers are the best. By then I had forgotten all the other things.
While it’s unlikely, I still think there is a chance the Oil catch the Canucks. We are 12 pts behind with 4 games in hand – not good. However, Vancouver is bound to hit a bad run of games at some point. They have seven players with +20% shooting percentage. That’s not even close to being sustainable. They routinely get outshot and Demko has been outstanding. I’ll be stunned if they don’t hit a bad stretch of games.
The underlying numbers are not top end, still the Pony could run for the rest of the season. I suspect a does of reality might cool some players off though, as doubt creeps back in
It’ll be beauty when next season is more normal and things go wacky with their media and bandwagoners, if not sooner
This happened last season with Seattle too. Good forward depth, many of them had career years. This year has seen some regression to the meat.
What Seattle was not getting (prior Grubauer’s injury) was good goaltending. Daccord has been quality since assuming the reigns.
I was just going to bring up the Kraken last year.
Citing all these individuals with high shooting percentages is very similar to citing the Kraken having the highest 5 on 5 team shooting percentage in league history.
Taking a look, it seems the Kraken did not sustain that……. weird.
You’re right. It was their 5 on 5 shooting percentage driving the shop last year.
Obviously they are not playing the same ‘system’ this year.
This just in! Reality applies to everyone but the Canucks!
13 goals and 6 assists is a totally normal stat line, and there is no way that things will regress.
You see, it’s all due to the Canucks revolutionary system which is:
-keep puck in offensive zone
-don’t just throw the puck away
How that is different than all the other teams in the league who play the same way? We’ll have to wait for Ferraro to elaborate further because HH can only parrott so much.
I live in remote BC (secret location) and watch the Canucks often. While not unique there operation in the O zone seems to be very dynamic with their defense and more an umbrella than a set of 2 on the back end. The play isn’t so much up the side walls and around behind the net as it is from sidewall to D, back to sidewall, D, rotation of D, rotation of sidewall etc. It starts with Hughes who is both elusive and smart and has a great shot. But one player is relatively high up each half wall, and and as Hughes moves across the Blue line the umbrella rotates. More like a PP than some/many teams. It tends to strain/tempt and impatient zone D as they (nucks) look for seams and they do have some good shooters who can take advantage of the openings. And Hughes is never afraid to challenge the D. Not necessarily unique but works well with their top two lines. And Demko has been steal-lar. Hughes is an offensive superstar. I don’t think this system works without someone with his mobility, skills and suck. He is not Connor level but worth the price of admission. I think teams in the playoffs will have time to prepare and strategize for this.
Thanks for this insight – it’s very much appreciated!
Its really “reality only applies to Oilers”.
Imagine citing shooting percentage regression as a concept for years and then saying it doesn’t apply to one team because of their system?
I’ve been saying for about a week now, given where everyone is now, it would be very surprising to me if the Oilers don’t play Vegas in the 1st round.
I hear what you’re saying. Personally, I am hoping for Vancouver to play Vegas… which will happen if we can rake the Division lead.
Yes, of course, I will hope for that too but it would be pretty shocking if that happens.
The Knucks will likely slow down but, of course, so will the Oilers, if we are being honest.
— This year in sports is shaping up like a Time Machine when I was a kid in the 80s in the sports I loved most
1) Oil have best player on the planet and team doing record breaking stuff
2) 49ers in Super Bowl
3) Curling legend Howard in the Brier
4) Jays making playoffs consistently but not yet putting it together
— The big hole in sporting though in this Time Machine has been boxing : 80s early 90s was peak with all the middle weights : hagler hearns Leonard Duran etc and of course Mike Tyson. I miss boxing : never got into MMA.
Everything old is new again… if you live long enough!
Good times.
As Kevin Nealon reminds us, it’s circular like a carousel. Up and down, and around.
I miss boxing too. The time frame you speak of was peak boxing in my adult lifetime Tyson, Lewis, Holyfield in the heavyweight division. With the legends you mentioned followed up with Dela Hoya, Trinidad, Vargas, Mosley. Then Barrera, Morales and Paqiou had some great fights..along with my personal favorite Arturo Gatti.
I would never miss a ppv at that time. Later soured on the sport as there were just too many fights that either didn’t,live up to the hype, or were blatant fixes. That and every time you turned around there was a new sanctioning body with a new champion that would never fight the other “champions” Slowly lost interest and honestly Don’t think I could name 5 current champions in all divisions combined
— yeah all the interest went into MMA. Mayweather the last of the greats.
— of top of head I know Fury and Joshua Anthony that’s about it. Boxing is so fringe now.
— I’ve got a photo of me and Hector Macho Comacho (RIP) in Vegas where I almost got into an altercation with him as he skipped to front of line for a Pete Rose autograph session. I was with buddies and some hotties with us trying to impress mid day drink on and this guy and entourage just whisked by me. So I beaked off saying who the hell does this guy think he is.
— But others in line behind me recognized him so they started to laugh and oh and ah. I’m next in line and Pete rose asks what was that kerfufful. I told him I’m probably going to get tuned up as soon as he signs my ball by comacho. Pete signs my ball “Good luck Kinger”
— Hector and his entourage is waiting at end of room, I look up he’s got a big grin on his face. So we chat for a bit and I went through his fights : early loss to Trinidad his tko of Sugar Ray. Duran fights etc. He was impressed. So I’ve got this framed baseball signed by Peter Rose with a photo of Hector playfully giving me an uppercut.
Haha, great story! Camacho was a great fighter in his own right. Great tactician without the big punching power. Had to use his impressive skills to earn his wins..
I went down to Vegas in 07 and attended Pacqiao vs Barrearra 2 at Mandalay bay. Fight itself wasn’t as action packed as their first fight, but the atmosphere in the stadium was amazing to be a part of. Thousands of Philipinos and Mexicans cheering on their respective fighters. Both nations treat boxers like we do our NHL stars. Maybe even more passionate. Was a great night, I will always remember
Agree on the boxing and MMA, although I go a bit further back to Ali, Frazier, Foreman, Cosell.
Down goes Fraziah! Down goes Fraziah!
Dont forget Norton.
Great post
If you haven’t been following Vasiliy Lomachenko and Gennady Golovkin… you’re missing out on some serious skill and incredible boxing careers.
I miss Sean O’Sullivan , especially his amazing bout in the Commonwealth Games. And Scotty Olson. O’Sullivan had the quickest hands…. it was poetry when he was on fire.
— yeah there was some good can-con in that boxing era. Shawn, Willie deWit, the Hiltons razor ruddock, Lennox Lewis of course.
I don’t post often yet feel as though LT is trolling me!! At least you put “a victory for the player” first. 😉
… and James Hamblin!!
It was all I could take to exclude Mark Lamb!
Hey, he was a second-line center on a Cup-winning team!
What a run
High praise! Kovalev is one of only 34 members of the 1000 point, 1000 PIM club.
Kovalev could completely take over games when he felt like it.
He didn’t always feel like it. The Rich Man’s Dubois, if you will.
Perhaps Grant just means he tries more often.
Spot on.
When he was on – he was on.
Might also have the record for the longest shift
7 minutes of Iron Mike love
I loved Zeev Buium in the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Or maybe he was at Jabba’s Palace.
That Hamblin has more games than Benson surprises me. I’ve been paying attention, but I had high hopes for Benson on draft day. Without googling it, I have no clue how Hamblin even got here. Good on Hamblin for forcing his way into the picture!
Benson couldn’t or wouldn’t adapt his game to what was necessary to make it.
Benson adapted plenty, turned himself into an irritating prick to play against. It wasn’t enough.
His bigger problem was core body injuries that wrecked his development & perhaps reduced him physically in the longer term.
Yes, agreed – odd comment by Godot, who knows what he’s talking about (even if I disagree with his analysis on certain things). Benson changed his game through his pro development more than any prospect I can think of off the top of my head.
Not even close to NHL speed.
God bless him his effort and dedication were never in question
Signed to a 2-year minor-league contract after his over-age season at Medicine Hat, his third as captain of the Tigers in which he finished third in WHL scoring.
Signed to an NHL deal (2-year ELC) late in his second season in Bakersfield on 2022 Mar 02, same day that Vince Desharnais also got upgraded to an NHL pact.
Played 10 games with Oilers as an injury call-up last season & 31 GP this.
An Edmonton native, Hamblin played on the same powerhouse bantam team (South Side Athletic Club Lions) as both Benson & Stu Skinner.
That he has more NHL games than Benson surprises me as well.
A week and a half break in the middle of the season?…..I don’t get it. Its like a hiatus for the league. ( assume placeholding for Olympics etc, )
A bit ridiculous in imo.
Surprised tv audiences don’t dip on the return ( not strong Canadian markets obv) …
Customers ( not die hards) get used to not seeing or tuning in – there are other things to entertain themselves.
My wife (and the cat) are very appreciative of the break – they don’t have to listen to loud renditions of ‘THATS A PENALTY’ for a while. It also gives me time to get some work done around the house and get some more hours in at the paying job.
The casual fans in the USA should return post Superbowl if their local teams are doing well. The ‘Bettman’ points structure keeps teams ‘in-the-hunt for a Wild Card berth’ longer so that will help as it was designed to do.
Ha! True…
Hockey’s version of the bye week, except all the teams get it at nearly the same time (either immediately before or immediately after the All-Star break). Makes for a thin schedule, this week especially.
But fun to watch teams that you normally would not. Sens beating the Preds last night was gold!
I hear you….just be interested to know if there is any price paid for taking this much time off. Not in Canada or Boston maybe – but other markets.
Its too long Bruce!!
Its the CBA mandated 5-day bye week that the players negotiated – they schedule it right before or after the all-star break.
Nothing to do with the Olympics, per se, but what the players negotiated in to the CBA.
I know he was a 2022 draft (or was it 2021?) but I put LaChance in a similar category as he is a rookie in the NCAA and he is getting legit ice (PP time mostly) on a very good NCAA team from a prominent org and putting up crooked numbers.
Miles to go on both these players, and I don’t know what their offence at this stage of their development mean, but both are earning pro contracts in due course. Given where they were drafted, if either get an ELC, that’s likely a draft in already.
Lachance isn’t in pro hockey at this time, so there was no need to mention him in my piece. I think he’s a fine prospect, have him No. 8
https://theathletic.com/5089039/2023/12/03/edmonton-oilers-top-20-prospects-ranking-winter-2023/
Max Wanner?
He’s got the straightest up arrow of them all, no?
I didn’t see Wanner as a recall option in July, and remain convinced. Next season? I believe there’s a good chance we see him.
https://lowetide.ca/2023/07/26/oilers-rookies-2023-24-first-blush/
In his civilian identity he is Connor McDavid… faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive, able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. It appears as though Kal-El was seen north in the great land of ice, most likely carrying a kryptonian sunstone from his father Jor-El to create the Fortress of Solitude… a giant walks among us! ©LT
It takes a team, not a superhero.
Gretzky’s ultimate superpower was his team building. Which was demonstrated in 1990, when they won without him.
And when they won again in 1994 in New York, without him.
https://twitter.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1752106205323952444?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1752106205323952444%7Ctwgr%5E20806b8481c0466511632df21a2d375f3ec435f0%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdailyhive.com%2Fedmonton%2Fmcdavid-ice-dips-oilers-bye-week
Last time I checked Sather was the GM. 99 was the best player who ever played no doubt about it, but get serious he was not the GM or even a scout. Slats built the teams – Gretzky, along with Messier et al, took care of the room and play on the ice.
If Rodrigue had been given the Pickard opportunity and delivered the exact same numbers. How good would we be feeling about our goaltending?
Worse probably since people would be complaining that Rodrigue isn’t getting enough starts to develop properly, while two veteran goalies are seeing more rubber in the AHL.
Rodrigue is exactly where he needs to be and we feel great about his development into one of the top goalie prospects outside the NHL.
Now about that Campbell contract …
Prospectance!
The spotlight shines solely on Shane Lachance, who is enjoying a solid if unspectacular freshman campaign. Sixth in team scoring, he has put up 8-7-15 in 23 GP with a SH% of 14.8.
He gets Lachance to further pad his totals when the puck drops at 4:30 p.m. Egremont time.