The Bakersfield Condors are 38 games into the 2023-24 season and there’s prospect separation. Not the kind we expected, but that’s why they play the games. If you’re looking for a player who is absolutely NHL-ready and dominating the AHL, this Philip Broberg player card is top drawer. Ideally he is in training camp this fall, but that is anything but certain. How about the other splits? Read on!
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault’s season and what it means for his future
- Lowetide: What’s changed for Oilers’ Evan Bouchard in his impact season?
- DNB: Quizzing Oilers All-Star Leon Draisaitl on the top 10 NHL goalies he’s scored against
- Lowetide: Everything that went right for the Oilers in their perfect January
- DNB: Ranking the Oilers’ top 5 trade assets: Which ones could be in play?
- Lowetide: Will the Edmonton Oilers go all-in at the 2024 trade deadline?
- Lowetide: Which Edmonton Oilers prospects spiked in January?
- DNB: Jeff Jackson Q&A
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
- DNB: Oilers winning streak lives, but improvement is needed: ‘We got a lot more in our group’
- Lowetide: Why Oilers forward Sam Gagner is having success in his role
- DNB: Stuart Skinner’s superb play should give Oilers more trade deadline flexibility
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
PHILIP BROBERG
The great thing about Broberg is coach Colin Chaulk can put him with anyone and have success. Currently it’s Ben Gleason, but Broberg has played with all manner of Condors blue and had success. Brilliant totals, and consistent in his excellence.
DYLAN HOLLOWAY
Holloway is an NHL player now, the organization didn’t trust the hockey Gods with an appearance on the weekend. He’s going to get a full shot at establishing himself on the big roster and that means playoff games in the spring. I keep thinking he won’t play in the minors again and this time it could hold. Speedy, not shy, skilled and he has 18 shots in those four games. Hallelujah! Edmonton needs him to push this spring.
RAPHAEL LAVOIE
Lavoie isn’t the slam dunk NHL player Broberg and Holloway will be (in my opinion) but we’re coming up on draft plus five years and I think he’s going to get 100+ NHL games somewhere. He is on his way to a second 20-goal season in the AHL, and over the last three Condors seasons he is averaging 28-24-52 per 82 games. If he’s still on the club this fall, Lavoie will be in the mix on right or left wing, bottom six.
OLIVIER RODRIGUE
Rodrigue won’t clear waivers in the fall and I wonder if the Oilers contemplate trading him at the deadline. Stuart Skinner has the starting job in Edmonton now, and I don’t know if the organization is willing to run with two inexperienced goalies for long. We’ll see. He is having a fine season.
At noon today, Sports 1440, we get back to NHL action and preview the Super Bowl this weekend. Rachel Doerrie from Staph and Graph Podcast will help us figure out the Oilers next move, and Jason Gregor will pop in with his take on the big game (going for 17 W!) in Vegas tomorrow night. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
XAVIER BOURGAULT
Bourgault is 1.5 years into his AHL career and has yet to impact the game offensively at even strength. His forechecking is outstanding, he’s a fine passer, but it’s officially time to worry about his goal-scoring potential. There’s some furrowed brows in this organization (is my guess) about Bourgault. A team looking to pick up a player with potential for less than 100 cents on the dollar this deadline should make the call to Ken Holland. Pretty sure.
JAYDEN GRUBBE
Jayden Grubbe is the first of three Condors rookies who are tracking ahead one or two of last year’s Bakersfield freshmen. He is big, strong, wins battles and is on track to score 11 even-strength goals this season. Only Noah Philp scored more last season among Bakersfield newcomers: Tullio had 10, Bourgault 6 and Savoie 5. Plus Grubbe is a RH center. It’s going to be an interesting race to the NHL.
CARTER SAVOIE
Finally, 1.5 years into his AHL time, Savoie is showing signs of being the player some hoped he would be on draft day. He’s a much better passer than we were told, and he should shoot more. What he and our next player have in common is touches and moving the play forward with good decisions. The difference? The other guy is a rookie.
MATVEY PETROV
Matvey Petrov is the third member of the kid line in Bakersfield who are giving opponents fits. I don’t know who will emerge as the NHL player here, but my current ranking is Grubbe, Savoie and then Petrov. They all have things to recommend them. Grubbe is exactly the kind of prospect who thrives in the AHL due to size and enough skill to move the needle. Petrov (like Savoie) is more finesse than physical, so it might take him some time to spike in important areas. I like this year’s Bakersfield rookies more and more as the season wears along.
TYLER TULLIO
Part of the promising 2022-23 rookie forward crop (Noah Philp, plus Bourgault, Savoie and Tullio) that has yet to take a step forward this season. Injuries have been an issue, and Tullio (to my eye) has been lost in the shuffle a little so far. He has a nice range of skills and a more direct approach to offense, those things should bode well if he gets a full chance.
MAX WANNER
If I had to bet right now, I would pick Max Wanner as the most likely prospect (non Broberg-Holloway division) in Bakersfield currently to have an NHL career over the next decade. He and Grubbe fit the profile of AHL-to-NHL transition. He has been playing heavy minutes out of the box and is improving.
One of the key rules in The Farm Workers is that the real heroes are not the scoring phenoms, but rather the men who can refine their goal suppression skills and eliminate mistakes. Based on the first half of this season, it’s my belief the rookies in 2023-24 (Grubbe, Wanner and Petrov) have a better shot than the remaining rookies from last season (Bourgault, Savoie, Tullio). I’d love to be wrong, but that’s what math is telling me.
BEN GLEASON
Among the men who are playing in Bakersfield and have a little more experience, Ben Gleason has the look of a man who could be the next Jordan Oesterle. He’s mobile, impressive with the puck, and has some defensive acumen plus not too much chaos. I like him no matter who he plays with, but Gleason with Broberg is a wagon.
NOEL HOEFENMAYER
Noel Hoefenmayer has experienced some injuries this season and there have been times when his goal share was a worry. Partnering with Markus Niemelainen seems to have done a world of good. Hoefenmayer has many good things, including a booming shot and a rugged style. I don’t think he has separated himself from the pack in the same way as Gleason.
PHIL KEMP
Phil Kemp made his NHL debut this season, that’s such a cool thing. I heard an interview he did with Ryan Holt, is was fantastic. One of my favourite things about hockey is watching a young prospect reach the pinnacle of the sport. Back in the AHL, Kemp is doing what he’s always done: Help his team outscore opponnents at evens.
MARKUS NIEMELAINEN
Markus Niemelainen was inconsistent and then injured and then things began to work better. He has been effective in the last number of weeks and I think he might play in the NHL again. Maybe soon. Niemelainen is a devastating, punishing hitter and is getting better and not getting out of position to make the big hit. I’m really enjoying his play recently.
CAM DINEEN
Cam Dineen has been more impressive than these numbers. At the beginning of the season, he was paired with Max Wanner and the duo played big minutes. They were high event, and went through a tough period, but I liked the tandem and Wanner survived (that’s a key part of this season). Since then, he has been hurt most of the time, but Dineen is a splendid puck carrier, passer and skater.
Ken Holland and Keith Gretzky did a fantastic job of populating the Condors roster with quality AHL defensemen. I think Broberg, Wanner and maybe Gleason will have NHL careers. The rest could spend time in the NHL with some breaks. I think the Oilers could deal one of these men at the deadline as a small asset. If I were an NHL team and given the choice of blue in Bakersfield (Broberg aside), it would be Wanner, Gleason and then Niemelainen in a close race.
LANE PEDERSON
He’s a terrific AHL player, I’m both surprised and pleased the organization kept him in Bakersfield. Pederson can play. He’s a fine offensive player but can read plays well and is a real center. I’m a big fan of this player, and believe he is helping the young prospect wingers. A great addition. I would have loved to see him with Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto when they were in Bakersfield.
JAMES HAMBLIN
James Hamblin has less natural talent than an absolute shit ton of Oilers prospects who were drafted high and could never find a way to use their talents successfully at the highest levels. I think he’ll pass 100 games and could fly past 200 eventually. Offensive ability will keep him from having a long career, and size will see him overlooked on the waiver wire, but my goodness he is an easy man to cheer for in the game of hockey.
SETH GRIFFITH
Always a favourite of mine, he delivered a fantastic run after mid-December and has been the key offensive player for Bakersfield this season. Griffith hasn’t played as many NHL games as he earned, that should be a lesson to all the younger men on this roster.
CAMERON WRIGHT
I wrote yesterday about signing him to an NHL deal, and I remain convinced it’s the right play. Edmonton’s pro depth chart at his position (RW) is no screaming hell and no one is graduating from previous drafts at right-wing. He’s an older prospect. He can play.
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New for The Athletic: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
https://theathletic.com/5250044/2024/02/05/oilers-nhl-trade-deadline-all-in/
I appreciate the summary of all the prospects today. Excellent read, thank you
The AHL allstar games, kicked the NHL Allstar games’ ass. A lot more intensity and drama on display. Specifically from the eventually champions from the Pacific Division.
From the blueline in, Lavoie was as dominant as any other player with the puck on his stick. Great showing from him.
Interesting analysis from Knoblauch today on defence. Basically that the improvement has come from attention to detail, not necessarily systems. Some admission that puck management has been an issue in January, as well as admission that the team will continue to play a riskier type of game that will generate odd man rushes against and breakdowns.
The difference between the defensive success and failure of this season is not systems related. Woodcroft and Manson failed miserably with box plus one. Knoblauch and Coffey are succeeding wonderfully with it. Why? Details, commitment, confidence, communication: execution, game management.
Taking chances under Manson was a disaster for Bouchard this season, and a success under Coffey (with a healthy Ekholm). Why? Game management. Knowing when to make a play, when it’s not worth it.
Guess what a riskier style of play requires? Elite & timely goaltending.
Skinner is 20 goals against better than an average goalie across these past 16. 20 above expected!! Tomorrow is likely to require continued elite goaltending.
All situations since Dec 20th
Process
Defence XGA60 2.69 (5th)
Saving
xGA 44 – 24 = 20 GSaX (1st)
Jets are 16 GSAX in this period.
SV% .946 (1 st)
Gregor’s question and response from Knoblauch starts at 2:20.
https://youtu.be/2OdYfxpVx0A
I hate bragging, but I said this in the summer when people were writing about zone v man-to-man. Teams will play different systems, but the execution is always paramount. They’re more aggressive now. Especially on the PK.
Nielson on his AM show called it.
Toronto talking about a ‘playoff-type mindset’ after the ASG and then losing to the Islanders. Engvall with the winner makes it all the sweeter.
Lol – they finally won 2 rounds and they think that means they’re in a playoff-type mindset.
Sorry, Coach Roy couldn’t hear any of that nonsense with those Stanley Cup rings in his ears.
And it was only 1 round!
You need to go back to 2004 to get the Leafs playoff round wins total up to 2.
Summarizing!
Lachance did not garner soup, and so shall have to content himself with a handful of Cheerios.
Prospecting takes a break until Wodin’s Day.
Marek/Friedman also sat down with Rick B. and Rick T. and Rick B. straight up said that Monohan is going on to their third line and I smiled.
Monohan is having a nice season but its PP driven – more than half his goals and apx. half his points have been on the PP.
He’s not a top 6 player right now and I look forward to taking advantage of that in the WCF if they can get through COL/DAL.
At what point is Skinner no longer an inexperienced goalie? After this season he will be 25 years old, have well over 100 games played over 4 seasons, 2 seasons as a starting goalie, 2 playoff runs, (and a Stanley Cup…).
I don’t see any problem with running Skinner Rodrigue next season on the basis of inexperience.
Plus, the cap spent on those two would be quite nice.
When he proofs himself in the playoffs.
A proof is a proof. And when you have a good proof, it’s because it’s proven.
Can you prove that? 😂
I would suggest that a rookie with zero NHL games of experience would be considered inexperienced.
I would think management, whoever may be GM, would want a 3rd goalie with some real NHL experience and success to battle Rodrigue.
Pickard MAY be that guy depending on how the next few months ago.
He regress back to what he’s been the last 6 years or so (a tweener, AHL, organizational 3) – which may be enough for the new manager.
He may, of course, earn himself a bigger role/contract with some org.
Some goalies don’t seem to figure things out until their late 20’s early 30’s. Alex Lyon had a similar journeyman career to this point and now he’s fire.
Maybe it’s worth targeting these types of goalies with 2 year contracts to play backup or be the AHL vet. Once they become too expensive, then cut bait and look for the next one.
Eric Comrie has a similar profile (late-20’s, good minor pro, unable to sustain success in the NHL), and should come cheap this summer after flaming out in Buffalo.
Marek/Friedman also sat down with Rick B. and Rick T. and Rick B. straight up said that Monohan is going on to their third line and I smiled.
Monohan is having a nice season but its PP driven – more than half his goals and apx. half his points have been on the PP.
He’s not a top 6 player right now and I look forward to taking advantage of that in the WCF if they can get through COL/DAL.
Ricki Bear and Rick Tochett?
Must have been informative.
The Drai/McDavid sit down with Mark/Friedman from Friday dropped on 32 Thoughts this weekend and it was notable to me that McDavid mentioned the threesome of goalies they have and “Soupy is still here”.
That’s just good leadership along the lines of “even though Soupy is no longer with us, he’s still in our hearts”. I heard that too and thought “awww, that’s cute.”
Until such time as Campbell gets traded or bought out, the Captain is going to make sure he knows that the boys are counting on him to keep working on his game, and maybe he finds his way back to the team if anything happens to Skinner.
That statement by Connor does not mean that Holland is not going to do everything possible to move out his contract before the deadline, as long as the cost is not too high. We have no idea what management has cooking … just because you keep telling us that the cost is going to be prohibitive, does not mean that on March 8 something won’t materialize (aka – another team in the playoff race suffers a season-ending injury to their starting goalie and decides to take a chance on Soup at a bargain basement price in asset cost).
Don’t read too much into the tea leaves … whatever moves they are or are not going to make are probably about a month away from occurring.
The Oil is only 1 injury away from Campbell being their starter.
Actually could be only one injury away from Campbell being their backup, depending how you look at it…
Yes, I think the cost to trade Campbell in-season is cost prohibitive. My opinion.
I think the captain knows there is a chance that Campbell is on the roster in the playoffs and could be a break-glass/emergency play. My opinion.
You have opinions you state as well.
I have hopes and dreams of moving on from Campbell’s contract without it costing too much in asset capital. I have no idea what actually happens in trade talks or whether there is any hope of disposing that contract without a buyout this summer.
I also have such hopes and dreams but I also have hopes and dreams of retiring by 50 and its not going to happen.
Keep playing lotto 649!
NHL GMs can make some really questionable decisions. All it takes is for one sucker to think they can pull a “Monahan” with Campbell (yes – I know Monahan only had 1 year left on the deal he signed with Calgary). But that’s why Kenny gets paid the big bucks, as Connor also said in that interview.
Was just reading a little about the world Jr scandal. Maybe someone here can help, why would the teams be granted cap relief? I don’t recall any relief for players in trouble with the law.
Because those teams aren’t the Edmonton Oilers.
How many draft picks are we sending to these teams this time??
San Jose was granted cap relief when they terminated Evander Kane’s contract.
After arbitration,they did receive diminished cap charges
Logically I’d think it’s due to the nature of the situation. The players are facing accusations, they are innocent until proven guilty. Forcing the teams to seek cap relief via termination of contract without due process, feels incredibly messy in both contract legality, and also in casting aspersion to people that have not faced a trial yet.
I think it’s the right decision given the stage of proceedings the case is currently at.
Agreed. A reasonable solution until things are proven in a court of law. Then, if proven guilty, it will be a different story.
but yet the Hawks were able to terminate Perry’s contract for non-criminal matters?
Was Mike Richard’s convicted prior to his contract being terminated?
As I posted below, after BorninAGretzkyJersey asked a really astute question about what the league did when Slava Voynov got in trouble … the precedent for the league granting cap relied in situations like this had already been set. Cap relief was granted by the NHL to the LA Kings during Voynov’s legal troubles, though the league had also suspended Voynov, which has not yet happened to these 5 players (though we’ll see what happens now that they’ve been formally charged).
The charges against Mike Richards were stayed about a year later; he wasn’t convicted – I forgot that he got caught with possessing oxycodone … that’s seems so quaint by today’s standards. The Kings and the NHLPA eventually came to a settlement and the league penalized the Kings with a cap penalty that doesn’t end until 2029 for terminating his contract without following the NHLs version of due process.
Same thing happened with Kane as HH pointed out, and same thing may happen with Perry.
The interesting thing about the Voynov case, is that it wasn’t until he left for Russia under threat of deportation that the Kings asked the league for permission to terminate his contract. At the time, he was a still a valuable player on the ice (he even dressed for 6 more games after he was charged before the NHL stepped in and suspended him), whereas Richards was a shell of the player that he had been in his prime and the King’s immediately used that as an excuse to terminate his contract and recoup his cap space (instead of referring him for help to assist him with his health concerns).
Dean Lombardi was fired within a year or two after all this went down.
League announces that the Flyers, Devils and Flames will be cap relief for the players on leave due to charges.
I presume there will be an appeal from somewhere? Surely this is a dangerous precedent to allow?
When Voynov had his domestic altercation, what happened to the Kings’ cap situation?
From Wikipedia:
Voynov was suspended by the league … his domestic violence charge occurred while he was a member of the LA Kings. Under section 18-A.5, ” The league may suspend the player pending the leagues formal review and disposition of the matter where the failure to suspend the player during this would create risk of material harm to the legitimate interest and/or reputation of the league.”
He received his full salary for the 2014-15 season. He eventually pleaded no context to a reduced misdemeanour charge, then was taken into custody by ICE and held without bond, He elected to return to Russia rather than go through deportation proceedings, after which the Kings terminated his contract.
From ESPN November 14, 2014:
The NHL and NHLPA came to an agreement that Voynov’s cap hit would be treated just like that of any player under LTIR.
I find it interesting that these players have not been suspended yet. But there was already a precedent established for this sort of situation.
I mentioned that I was happy that none of the Europeans on the Oilers took the opportunity to head back over-seas during the break – it was long enough. The Ekholm’s actually stayed in Edmonton.
As it turns out, Evander Kane went to France….ha.
I’ve had ‘illness’s’ after a couple nights in France as well!😆
If the only version of “Highway Star” you’ve heard is the studio version from Machine Head, I implore you to feast your ears upon the live version from Made in Japan. IMO, one of the finest concert albums ever crafted.
Tarkus you da man. Made in Japan is a great album. Go Oilers beat Coyotes. Your trip is coming up soon, if I remember correctly.
Sure is! I may be dropping you a line before then.
Machine Head is good.
Made In Japan is gooder.
There is a great “Belter Version” in The Expanse.
You’re cheating on Keith with Jon. Shame. A substitute for another guy. Might as well waltz for a pig.
Olivier Rodrigue will most probably max out as a NHL backup which is in itself a great accomplishment.
Top 10 Goalies in NHL this Season (sorted by SV% – minimum 20 games played)
Rodrigue
For a shorter goalie, Rodrigue is right on track and should have another AHL season before NHL backup duty. I doubt any team would claim Rodrigue if he was sent down so sign Captain Pickard to a 1-year contract to backup The Principal next year.
There is likely some GM bias in those goalie numbers, but the 3 forward prospects LT thinks have the best shot are all NHL size players, and the older but to him less likely ones are all under typical NHL size
It’s not set in stone of course, but in any sport certain positions settle out as largely going to athletes with certain physical traits. Because they have an advantage there
Players not typical need something extra. If they don’t have it they will almost always be on the bubble
Saros is elite technically and with reflexes. Marchand can skate and is hyper aggressive and skilled. Makar and Quinn have insane skating. Caufield has a world class shot. Panarin can move and is exceptionally skilled great shot, P Kane the same, Kucherov etc etc
To me drafting too small or too big (or can’t skate at an NHL level) is almost always a wasted pick without the extra something being there. Gord knows the Oilers have blown a lot of picks over the years from this, and it’s looking like another with Bourg instead of Johnston. All things being equal take the player with less obstacles to overcome
To borrow a phrase from our recently departed Robin Brownlee, Wyatt Johnston wasn’t within a five dollar cab ride of Xavier Borgault’s production in their draft years.
Suggesting otherwise is nothing better than revisionist history.
XB: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=216525
WJ: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=227511
A big part of exceptional drafting is the ability to project development beyond the obvious.
Dallas has done it over, over and over.
Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankhoven are ripping up the AHL despite being later draft picks and are just two recent examples while Thomas Harley is turning into a stud D in real time.
LT has called the Stars “lucky” but Dallas seems have turned luck into a repeatable skill.
The amount of players who you have hyped up only for them to flame out and never be heard of again could fill many books.
Cooper Marody ripped up the AHL as a 21 year old (Bourque just turned 22)
Drafting = projecting teenagers’ development.
Got it.
Tuesday evening cannot come soon enough
The eighties Oilers ran Fuhr and Moog.
If one signs Pickard again as #3, why not Skinner and Rodrigue.
Yeah, I agree we could see Skinner/Rodrigue next season if neither of them goes off the rails through the end of this year.
Entering next season Skinner will be on the verge of turning 26, and would have 2 full seasons as a starter under his belt. Should also have about 125 career games with a SV% in the .910 range (currently 98 games and .912 SV%).
Skinner wouldn’t be very young or inexperienced at that point.
Yeah, if Skinner acquits himself well in these playoffs, then it is hard to argue he is still an inexperienced starter.
While Rodrigue as backup isn’t ideal, it is cheap. And that would help to make up for the much less than ideal Neal and Campbell buyout dead cap. Is anyone better available as a backup for league minimum? Would Pickard sign again for that amount? Goalies are such a mystery to me that I can’t even figure out what they are valued at.
I don’t think Pickard is going to get a big deal from anyone.
And with Rodrigue, he’s been quite good over 2 seasons now. It’s been in a limited number of games, but if he can maintain a .915 or .920 SV% through the end of the season (he’s at .920 now) then I think he deserves a legit NHL chance.
Him being cheap is great obviously, but for me if he’s backup next season it’s mostly about the player being give a chance they’ve earned (that is, I wouldn’t say it ‘isn’t ideal’).
At some point when they are ready they are ready. No player is perfect. Rookies aren’t perfect. Old back up goalies are far from perfect. But the cap says if you have young in house talent you use it
If you can’t tell if a guy has the mental game unless he’s so well past the A he wants a trade, you aren’t doing it right. Lots of us seem to be able to see it
Are you talking about Rodrigue?
Yes. 24 this year with a couple of seasons of success and growth in the A. They should know what he’s made of by now. Skinner had games at 24
Maybe he’s not ready, to me his SV% on an iffy team says he likely is. They of course need a vet in the A. Jack! Perhaps they want a taller goalie, in which case they should trade him soon and draft some more
Yeah you threw me off as you were seeming to suggest Rodrigue is way over-ripe or something.
He’s 18 games into his second solid season as a pro. 47 total AHL games as a .900 goaltender at this point.
He’ll be waivers eligible for the first time next season. I expect he’ll be give a good chance to make the club if he can keep up the strong play over the 2nd half of the season.
If Rodrigue is anywhere near asking for a trade I’d say that’s more on the player than the way the organization has handled him.
Will he be given a good chance to make the team or will management ensure to have a more established 2G option?
I guess if Pickard signs back there should be a legit comp at camp, so, ya, maybe you are right.
Yeah, if Rodrigue finishes this season with a SV% in the .920 range then I do think there’s a good chance they start next year with Rodrigue and Picard/equivalent behind Skinner.
We’ll see, but I think that’s likely.
Will he be given a good chance to make the team or will management ensure to have a more established 2G option?
I guess if Pickard signs back there should be a legit comp at camp, so, ya, maybe you are right.
Rodrigue is in his 4th AHL season, has played 71 AHL games plus stints in IceHL and ECHL, 3rd tier pro leagues.
Yes, I know. I meant that he’s in the midst of his 2nd decent AHL season (“2nd solid season”). He had 24 games over 2 previous seasons with .894 and .886 save percentages.
He’s been excellent the past season and a half (.912 and .920) but the track record is not long (ie – “ 47 total AHL games as a .900 goaltender“).
I wouldn’t say the Condors are an iffy team. They are 14-3-3- in their last six and they were absolutely rolling prior to Campbell being sent down and Jack cratered the team in his first few weeks (when he shouldn’t have been playing every game and given some time to mentally recover and get ready).
The Condors are a very strong defensive team.
I wouldn’t say the Condors are an iffy team. They are 14-3-3- in their last six and they were absolutely rolling prior to Campbell being sent down and Jack cratered the team in his first few weeks (when he shouldn’t have been playing every game and given some time to mentally recover and get ready).
The Condors are a very strong defensive team.
Unless someone amazing comes along, this is essentially the way.
And I want to sincerely thank you for this wonderful space on the interweb and your radio and your writings.
+1!
I have an athletic membership. Do I have time to read much? Not really, but I’ll keep paying for it to hopefully help out LT. It was only $10 for an annual pass around Christmas this year too so it’s really good value.
Prospección!
Even though the above is Spanish, the below is, ‘ow you say, en francais as Shane Lachance is in rare Monday action.
His freshman campaign has seen him up and down the lineup, but his nine goals are 4th on the Terriers.
He can fill the net some more when the puck drops at 6 p.m. Stanger time.
Per Gregor:
Kane on ice after missing yesterday with an illness.
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele
Holloway-McLeod-Perry
Janmark-Ryan-Brown
Gagner
Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Desharnais-Kulak
—————————-
Love it!
Surprised you don’t have concerns about Desharnais on his off side…
Scott Wheeler at Athletic having prospect run down and we’re not at the bottom
guessing Broberg and Holloway and Rodrigue are getting some love
BOTH of Kyle Dubas’ teams pulling up behind.
You say this LT and then fade Savoie in the very next sentence who has been on the ice for 6GA all year and only 2GA in the last 17!
How long are his sideburns?
You are a complicated man LT
I didn’t fade Savoie, but did acknowledge his goal suppression a year ago didn’t exist.
2 players who stand out for me as great non-rentals on decent contracts and who are on teams that are or may be rebuilding are Ryan O’Reilly, and Boone Jenner. Both would be amazing pickups. What would it take to pry them away? Probably a lot, but also probably worth it. They’re exactly the type of player that can help win a Cup.
I like both targets aplenty. They’re the ideal 3C type who can move up in a pinch and hold the fort, while being able to chip in offensively (and at opportune times).
Between them Jenner is by far my favourite option: younger, lower AAV, less remaining term. Would probably cost a bit less to acquire.
What is the premise of the Jenner add – how does it play out?
I’d like to add him, of course, but does he play 3C over McLeod?
He has 10 points in 35 games at evens. All goals but still. McLeod has 8 goals and 16 points.
Jenner is playing a ton against elites (over 40% of TO) – he’s getting killed, but team…..
Does McLeod go back up to 2LW? What about Kane? Does this shift Holloway back to the 4th line?
Is this worth the cost?
I was wondering what the attraction was with Jenner too. McLeod has better 5v5 scoring rates this year and last, his 5v5 on-ice metrics are much better than Jenner’s, both rates and rels, and he plays more 4v5 than Jenner with much better results.
Jenner is more physical, and slightly better at faceoffs. Is that worth the trade offs?
What if McLeod is better at 2LW than 3C, and in doing so allows Kane to roam freely as 3LW?
Kane — Holloway/Jenner — Perry is a damned difficult third line for any team in the league to contend with. Would open up some clear air for everyone else.
I don’t know, Jenners metrics are well below break even. I’m 100% sure he won’t push the river at 5v5, but I’m not sold on his defensive abilities either. Not worth the price of admission as far as I can see.
Well below?
I see him basically treading water with extreme deployment against elites on a lottery team this year. Looking at his Rels he’s doing well taking on the toughs on a bad team with substantial injury issues.
https://puckiq.com/players/8476432
He’d be going from 1C with a bullet in CBJ, to 3C here.
I’m not selling the farm for him, but if he’s available for a decent price… I’d be all ears.
He started the season on fire. 10 5v5 goals in a 25-game stretch from Oct 14 to Dec 1st. Then he got injured and so did others on his team which was already a crappy team. He missed 15 games. He’s only played 6 games since his injury. Not sure he’s up to speed yet, but Laine (missed 32 games so far), Fantilli, and Boquist (missed 30 games so far) are all out now. Damon Severson missed 15 games as well. It’s been a real shit show in Columbus.
He’s 6’2″, 207lbs.
Cap Friendly player report:
“Pure pro. Plays the game the right way. Prepares. Competes.
Through the first 20 game segment to start the year he has already scored 10 goals – and chipped in with 3 assists – On pace for, potentially his biggest goal scoring year of his career
Averages 19:40 TOI – 14:58 ES – 3:28 PP – 1:13 PK
Credited with 25 hits and 25 shot blocks
Wins over 58% of his draws.
Has never been a burner in open ice. Efficient skater. Never backs down from a challenge.
Leads by example. Solid second line center who isn’t an elite scorer but produces better than secondary offense.”
From Sports Forecaster:
“Is a “lead by example” type who has a high compete level, relentless work ethic, and he can put the puck in the net. Has good size, is willing to go to the dirty areas to score and sticks his nose in to win puck battles. He drives the pace of play and can play in all game situations.
Long Range Potential: Big, well-rounded forward and leader.”
I’ve got all kinds of time for a player like that.
The idea is Jenner has an established history of good results in his favour. Adding him is increasing depth. Gives KK more options for deployment.
Am I saying I prefer BJ more than someone like Nic Dowd? Not precisely; it all depends on the asset cost.
McLeod with 29 and Foegele or (say) Tarasenko would be a deadly second line. Not to mention other deployment options.
Don’t disagree with any of that – extra depth would be excellent but the question will be/is if its worth the expensive cost, including moving cap out unless they pay even more to slice the pie twice.
Always wanted Jenner…ideal 3C that can push us over the hump. I would do
Broberg, 2024 1st and 2025 1st and 3rd, bourgault, Janmark, Campbell with 50% retained. For Jenner 50%
Perhaps you’re interested in some unique seaside property I have for sale… other side of the shoreline, but aggressively priced!
I don’t think its locked in that he won’t clear waivers in October – he’ll have zero NHL games on his resume and most teams aren’t looking to claim goalies with zero NHL games for their 2G (and not many will carry 3G).
I’m a fan of yours but I’m begging you, learn to use quotes! Why are you so stubborn on this one little thing that will take you 2 extra seconds and helps readers of your often very good comments know if you’re saying it or not. How many comments I thought were your ideas were actually Lowetide’s without you quoting? Uggh! I really don’t get it. It’s a disrespect to your readers and to your host, Lowetide, and his readers. At some point, I have to wonder if you’re doing it now just to be stubborn.
I’m tired of having to scroll up through the blog again to read through it just to find out if you actually said it or someone else, usually Lowetide, did.
I’m not sure if I’m the only reader who has mentioned it to you before, but I know that the host of the site you spend hours on weekly has requested it more than once. That should be enough.
100%.
It has been mentioned several times.
It is very annoying.
I also remember LT saying if you did not use them you would lose your right to comment??
The options are use quote or use the quote box function and the quote is clearly in the quote box function.
It is now, “danny” edited it. It was not in a quote box when I commented.
it wasn’t in the quote box, i fixed it trying to keep peace as people were irritated due to LT recently demanding everyone to use the quote function properly. If you need any help with how it works let me know and I can make a quick guide
Thank you for fixing it.
I do make a point of using the quote function every time I do it.
I am finding that its glitchy and it doesn’t work (even though I’ve done it) and I don’t realize after I post (and then there is only 5 minutes to edit).
When it happen its not due to disrespect or stubbornness or anything – just a mistake and I apologize.
no problem, I haven’t had any issue with it but I don’t use it frequently. My process is I select the text I’m quoting, copy and paste it without formatting in the reply box (ctrl-shift-v)… then I select what was pasted and hit the quote icon while selected. Maybe there’s a different way but that works well for me. I find I need to add a couple blank returns before i create the quote so I can type outside of the quote for my reply
no problem!
I see you went and corrected that. It was not before
Danny went and corrected it for you.
Yes. If it becomes an issue, then the person becomes a timeout candidate. If it’s one off or a learning experience, I don’t think that would be fair.
I’m just pulling his leg. He knows he’s my second favorite lawyer!
Me too. Right after Jill Hennessey
Scott’s Hyman!!!!!
Dude, its in the “quote box” function that is for this!
It was not earlier. Maybe a glitch in the matrix.
It is now, “danny” edited it. It was not in a quote box when I commented.
You’re a fan?😆
Yes, I am a fan of Original Pouzar. He contributes a lot on here for discussion. It’s not that hard to fathom.
How are you liking the D after Coffey took over, JOFA?
Next year will be Skinner’s third full season in the NHL. If he continues to play the way he is now, why can’t we start the season with Rodrigue as the back up? If he fails in that role, we can always put him on waivers after 10 games or so. He will more likely clear waivers then.
That’s what smart teams do. And when he needs his own net you trade him for a first or top prospect etc
It’s imperative to create saleable assets as a top team, it’s the only way to replenish depth and quality where you need it. How many goalies has LA sold?
The Oilers have been poor at this in forever. Part of it is not assessing prospects quickly enough, and not moving them quickly enough if they don’t want them. They ride down the value and get nothing or let them walk
I know lots of goalies have passed through LA. Who did they sell for ‘a first or top prospect’ type assets? I must be forgetting, but I can’t recall them selling their goalies for much of anything…
Martin Jones?
Yup, I’d forgotten where Jones started.
I’m not saying we can’t but its tough to head in to camp relying on a prospect that has never played NHL games as the 2G. It would be a risk, right?
No question it’s a risk, but every transaction a team makes is a risk. If he loses his first three games, for instance, you put him on waivers and send him down. No one will take him at that point. This team is clearly capable of overcoming three bad goalie performances.
but then who is the team’s 2G?
Pickard or similar
We didn’t really talk about it last night but, at practice, Drai and McDavid were split back apart playing center.
We thought this would happen but it is a change from the last two games so good to see it.
I expect it is tactical for facing the Kniggits tomorrow… they are very deep and more evenly skilled team throughout their lineup than most, so loading up one line leaves others in tougher matchups. Spreading the skill around, helps eliminate the exposure of any one line a bit, I would think.
Definitely not certain, I agree with that.
I would also be surprised if he was traded as I believe that the player has more value to the Oilers, this season and over the next few seasons, as a value contract, than the value he would have in a trade.
He’s at $867K on the cap now and could be as cheap as $833K next season (that is his qualifying offer).
It seems unlikely that Holland would move out a veteran D at this point (Kulak) but you never know (if they have a deal for a material add, someone needs to go) and Broberg at an apx $1.9MM cap savings is value. They will certainly need that cap savings going in to next season, right?
Broberg has proven to be able to play 3LD every day in this league. Would there be a drop-off from Kulak? Probably. Would the drop off be large? Probably not. Would a Broberg playing nightly have the ability to “pass Kulak” in fairly short order? I think so.
Lets alos not forget that Broberg was 4-1 goals in the playoffs last year.
Do we think the current top 6D play all 38 games down the stretch? Seems unlikely.
Broberg is key to this team’s future.
Value contracts are of utmost important.
Or at least a fast car.
Outstanding post, LT. The splits of both boxcars and goal shares are most illuminating. Same can of course be said about your informed commentary. Thank you for this.
Thanks, Bruce!
Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
I’ll give you one. Oilers are not very good at drafting, their pipeline is weak
Seems a bit over the top. The pipeline is thin because of a lot of deadline trades (sending out assets/picks) and because of the draft philosophy, which is why Wright is gone and Pracey is in.
But there is some skill and utility in the pool, and I’ve liked how they approach the draft after the first round. The bets were pretty solid, not all will pan out but there is something there.
Scott Wheeler is doing his mid-season ranking of systems over at The Athletic and there are at least 7 teams with worse prospect pools than the Oilers right now. Could it be better? Yes.
I just hope Broberg is not out at the deadline because we’re not going to get thru the final 37 games without needing to call someone up from the farm.
Drafting and pipelines are different. Much of the top of the active roster is homegrown (9/21).
What is the time frame/era you’re referencing when you say the Oilers are not very good at drafting? MacT? Chia? Holland?
Holland.
Chia had his faults, but his drafts were good. Not sure how much was Bob Green or Keith Gretzky.
Has there been enough runway to declare anything, definitively, about Holland era draft picks? The Broberg/Lavoie cohort is only just coming up on five years, the rest are still matriculating.
If you apply LT’s 5 year rule, no. But when you turf the guy who runs the draft, that’s a bit of a tell because that’s the guy who’s draft is filling one part of the pipeline right now.
They could also be doing more to fill the pipeline with over-agers and have made some decent bets. Would like to see more.
What I’d pay to be a fly on the wall in some of these meetings. Did Wright get turfed because Holland was displeased? Or was that because Jackson wanted his guy? Impossible to tell from the outside looking in.
Comparing amateur procurement to scouting is a false equivalency. They are not the same; there’s the draft, then there’s everything else as it relates to signing talent.
Wait, aren’t we yelling at people for not quoting?
Bettman .500 leaderboard at the All Star Break:
+22 Vancouver
+18 Winnipeg (.691)
+18 Colorado (.684)
+17 Dallas
+14 Edmonton (.656)
+14 Vegas (.640)
+8 Los Angeles
+5 St. Louis
+3 Nashville
+2 Seattle
+1 Arizona
even Calgary
-2 Minnesota
-12 Anaheim
-18 San Jose
-20 Chicago
Using the league wide breaks at Thanksgiving, Christmas, and the All Star Break
here are the splits for the non-lottery teams:
.724 Vancouver 7 7 8 = 22
.691 Winnipeg 6 5 7 = 18
.684 Colorado 6 4 8 = 18
.673 Dallas 8 4 5 = 17
.656 Edmonton -7 7 14 = 14
.640 Vegas 10 2 2 = 14
.583 Los Angeles 8 4 -4 = 8
.551 St. Louis 3 -1 3 = 5
.529 Nashville -2 6 -1 = 3
.520 Seattle 0 -2 4 = 2
.510 Arizona -1 4 -2 = 1
.500 Calgary -2 1 1 = 0
.480 Minnesota -3 5 -4 = -2
Oilers and Kings are Opposite George in the splits.
Since Christmas Oilers jumped 14 and Kings dropped 4.
Before Thanksgiving Oilers dropped 7 and Kings rose 8.
Thanks. Can you share how this is calculated?
Not hard to calculate, really. Can be parsed from league standings data for each time frame. Myself, I have been tracking for years team records at comparable intervals of each season – splitting the year roughly into eighths with the first and last segments each 11 games to get rid of the extra two games. Very illuminating and not tough to do.
Then I create a heat map of the segments depending on how each team does. from +1 to -1 bettman 500 for the segment gets a yellow highlight. +2 to +3 gets green, +4 or better gold. -2 to -3 gets red and -4 or worse gets purple. Great visual to show consistency, heaters, slides, etc.
Would be really cool if you posted those splits.
11 21 31 41
Boston 19 31 44 57 GOLD green green green
Buffalo 10 20 29 38 yellow yellow yellow yellow
Detroit 13 25 34 45 green green yellow yellow
Florida 13 27 38 56 green GOLD yellow GOLD
Montreal 12 20 32 40 yellow red green red
Ottawa 10 20 26 33 yellow yellow PURPLE red
Tampa Bay 13 25 33 43 green green red yellow
Toronto 12 27 40 50 yellow GOLD green yellow
Carolina 12 26 35 51 yellow GOLD yellow GOLD
Columbus 10 16 25 35 yellow PURPLE yellow yellow
New Jersey 15 23 34 47 GOLD red yellow green
NY Islanders 13 22 38 48 green yellow GOLD yellow
NY Rangers 17 33 45 54 GOLD GOLD green yellow
Philadelphia 11 23 39 48 yellow green GOLD yellow
Pittsburgh 10 21 33 46 yellow yellow green green
Washington 12 26 39 46 yellow GOLD green red
Arizona 11 22 34 44 yellow yellow green yellow
Chicago 8 14 21 26 red PURPLE red PURPLE
Colorado 16 30 40 55 GOLD GOLD yellow GOLD
Dallas 15 29 42 53 GOLD GOLD green yellow
Minnesota 10 18 32 39 yellow red GOLD red
Nashville 10 22 36 45 yellow green GOLD yellow
St Louis 11 23 31 44 yellow green red green
Winnipeg 12 26 41 60 yellow GOLD GOLD GOLD
Anaheim 14 18 24 29 green PURPLE PURPLE PURPLE
Calgary 7 19 29 41 PURPLE green yellow green
Edmonton 5 17 31 51 PURPLE green GOLD GOLD
Los Angeles 16 31 44 50 GOLD GOLD green PURPLE
San Jose 1 10 21 21 PURPLE yellow yellow PURPLE
Seattle 10 21 27 45 yellow yellow PURPLE GOLD
Vancouver 17 29 42 57 GOLD green green GOLD
Vegas 21 30 45 51 GOLD yellow GOLD PURPLE
Unfortunately the heat map doesn’t copy here from Excel. Not sure how to get that… much easier when a visual rather than straight text.
Thanks for this, interesting concept.
You could always take a screenshot and post it to an online host, then copy the img link to a post here (like posting a meme or gif).
SOunds like a lot of work for an old fart like me jaja.
I may try that tomorrow if I remember. Keep an eye out! Or, I can also send you the spreadsheet…
Is there an easy way for me to just send you my spreadsheet?
Hold on. My post of them is being held up for review as potential spam…
Because I split at league wide breaks all I needed was conference standings at the 3 dates, which you can get at NHL.com.
e.g.
https://www.nhl.com/standings/2023-12-25/conference
You can put any date in that link, but also notice that when you are on a specific date you can also choose other days and months right on the page.