Today’s GDT article is brought to you by the number “17” and the word “years” and my goodness how long is how long? It was 17 years ago the Edmonton Oilers were careening down the NHL highway with parts falling off and all manner of chaos finding its way to the local papers, blogs and various online chats.
In February 2007, Ryan Smyth was getting traded to the New York Islanders. The Oilers immediately lost all motor skills, and went 0-9-1 without Captain Canada. Smyth would get himself traded back to Edmonton in time to just miss a Stanley on the coast. It was a tough 17 years if you cheered for the Oildrop.
Seventeen years. I could list all of the major events, but living through them was surely enough for even the masochists in the group. Today is a much better day, win or lose tonight.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault’s season and what it means for his future
- Lowetide: What’s changed for Oilers’ Evan Bouchard in his impact season?
- DNB: Quizzing Oilers All-Star Leon Draisaitl on the top 10 NHL goalies he’s scored against
- Lowetide: Everything that went right for the Oilers in their perfect January
- DNB: Ranking the Oilers’ top 5 trade assets: Which ones could be in play?
- Lowetide: Will the Edmonton Oilers go all-in at the 2024 trade deadline?
- Lowetide: Which Edmonton Oilers prospects spiked in January?
- DNB: Jeff Jackson Q&A
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
- DNB: Oilers winning streak lives, but improvement is needed: ‘We got a lot more in our group’
- Lowetide: Why Oilers forward Sam Gagner is having success in his role
- DNB: Stuart Skinner’s superb play should give Oilers more trade deadline flexibility
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual January results: 0-0-0, 0 points in 0 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 29-15-1, 59 points in 45 games
If the Oilers manage to deliver 7-4-1 during February, the team will roll up to the deadline with a 36-19-2 record, 74 points in 57 games. That’s a pace that will land the Oilers at around 106 points. That’s a fantastic recovery from 2-9-1, should it come to pass.
THAT 2012-13 TEAM
Did you see the gap in Corsi Rel in the graph above? Holy crap! And you can find media stories blaming the kids from that era! Jesus, Mary and Joseph that’s carnage in numbers. That roster needed a laugh track.
WHAT ABOUT THIS YEAR’S TEAM
People mostly eschew the Corsi Rel numbers now, I don’t see anyone discuss them as having merit. All the kids have invented their own bibles and are constructing expensive churches by the ocean. I still visit Rel often enough to consider them a friend. For those who are interested, here’s the five-on-five Corsi Rel among regular forwards this season (courtesy Natural Stat Trick):
- Connor McDavid 8.14 Pct
- Zach Hyman 6.45
- Ryan McLeod 4.69
- Dylan Holloway 4.29
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 4.22
- Warren Foegele 0.86
- Sam Gagner -.10
- Leon Draisaitl -2.57
- Derek Ryan -2.96
- Mattias Janmark -4.17
- Evander Kane -5.58
- Connor Brown -6.65
- Adam Erne -6.78
- James Hamblin -9.02
I expect the comments section to hammer Evander Kane but there’s a wrinkle or two in these numbers. Away from Connor Brown (all of these totals are five-on-five), Kane’s Corsi Rel percentage is -3.79. Brown away from Kane? -5.07. Since November 24, when the coaching staff tweaked a few more things, Kane’s Corsi Rel pct is -1.82. He is a complementary player, the Oilers should be looking for someone to push him down the lineup. However, some of those numbers frame the issue in a more negative light than is perhaps deserved.
One thing I love about this coaching staff: They react in real time. During the early days of the Knoblauch coaching era in Edmonton, he broke up the McDavid-Hyman-Nuge line. For one game. It didn’t work. Back they went. Only when the group needed to hit refresh recently did he tweak and yesterday the McDavid line was back together on the roof playing Get Back.
RAPHAEL LAVOIE
The big winger had an impressive All-Star game last night in San Jose. It don’t mean a thing (if it ain’t got that swing) but it’s a nice moment for a fine young player.
Scott Wheeler is a fascinating evaluator and writer, I look forward to his draft and organizational work every season. The Oilers are higher on his list than I thought they would be, but danger lurks with both Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg about to age out (Lavoie already has). We’ll talk about the prospects, and the 2024 draft, with Scott today.
DNB will also be along today and we’ll chat about 17 in a row, and how that total, and more wins if they come, should be considered peak McDavid-era should it come to pass. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
In terms looking back at memories of wonder and unadulterated joy the 1990 Oilers will always stand out to me.
While close chronologically to the previous juggernauts they were separated in a real way from the previous Cup winners.
No Gretzky obviously, but this was a team with Mark Lamb as its second line centre, a kid line composed with three players with more skill than common sense, and with Fuhr’s injury they won with their young backup goaltender.
Petr Klima (RIP) scored one of the most important goals of the entire playoffs for crying out loud.
That playoff run was very much unique, and was a joy to live through.
That game reminded me of playing game 7 vs Carolina back in 2006 – frustrating sticks and blocked shots and goaltending – funny – same final score including the empty net (not similar was Pronger had no chance to catch J. Williams, whereas Bouchard, well not sure about how he played that– yes that is a dig at #2 … 🙂 )
Hill played as he should. K Woodley said his strength is net bottom
If you won’t raise it or make seam plays (like the goal getting Hill moving) hard to score on a monster like that
Good they lost, now they can go back to playing hockey and not thinking of the streak. Pressure is off.
Darn
Ya gotta wonder if 97 bowling into Martinez was a message to the team to drive the damn net. Goalie won them the game but far to many passes back getting picked off. They want you to make the passive safe play. That’s where they’re waiting.
Bouchard gambled a few times and got eaten alive. It was all-round strong D.
They were playing the trap with seemingly impenetrable sticks. We were stuck on the perimeter the whole time with most sorties ending with a pocket picked, picked off pass, or outside shot deflected. Hopefully some of this was rust and another impact forward might help, but we’re gonna need some coaching strategies for this in the playoffs.
This is exactly how I saw it and I agree
They played the same game that lost them the series. Same results
Watched the play again. Before the 2nd goal, Leon had a puck in the neutral zone, lost his lane, spun (foolishly), but was then tripped. Puck goes directly the other way. Goal.
I often think the Oilers don’t get calls because they have a strong PP.
I don’t mind losing to a good team. But not like that. In a game like this, that was a critical play and the lack of a call resulted in a changed game. Of course, the league is as tight lipped about referee evaluation as they are about, well, other things currently in the news. “Old time hockey”.
i really wish media (commentators and analysts) would hold the referees feet to the fire. They always say it’s a “tough job”. It’s not as tough as being a starting goaltender in this league. Skinner had his dman popped into him in the first. No call again.
Why oh why can’t they call the bloody rulebook consistently? I wish we could just have 50 different angle AI cameras fixed on the ice calling penalties. It’s a tough job? Fine! Have a computer do it.
The Oilers got away with a few as well. It was a playoff style game. If you want lots of fouls called in favour of the star players then the NBA may be more your thing.
The game turned on a couple of lucky posts and 2-3 really outstanding saves by Hill.
Losing to Vegas hurts but coming off a long break this should help focus them for the grind to come. They don’t measure up to last year’s Cup champs … yet. By the time the playoffs come around and we have to face those guys in the first round, it’ll be an absolute grind, cause it’s clear that team hates the Oilers and is not going to go away quietly.
Time to make some bold moves to put the Oilers over the top.
Wanting obvious calls called doesn’t make me a basketball fan. Come on, you’re better than that argument…
Im also ok with the Oilers being called for obv penalties. Call the rulebook.
We’ve been asking for the refs to call the rule book for decades now. But that’s not NHL hockey and it gets more arbitrary in the playoffs. You can gnash your teeth about it, which is your right to do so as a fan, but the NHL has shown no inclination towards changing the way games are called.
The Knights have finishers all through their lineup, which allows them to sit back and be opportunistic like they were against us in last years playoffs and again tonight.
The Oilers are an uber possession team that needs a little more polish when it comes to finishing off those chances.
That game was there for the taking without be granted an extra PP chance.
You can bet that missed trip on Leon came up in the Cult of Hockey podcast. So did the missed high stick on him earlier.
Oilers got 75% of 1 powerplay all night. Big impact on a tight checking game.
On the other side, both Nurse and Leon could have been assessed penalties for their defensive work on a couple of partial Vegas breakaways too.
Foegele took a dumb penalty to negate the PP.
The lack of calls cut both ways. It will be that way in the playoffs too. The Oilers have to be able to beat Hill at 5v5 or they’ll be out in the first round.
did you notice any miss calls on Vegas?
Excellent game despite the result.
The Knights go to their tried and true collapse in the d zone. The Oilers also missed some chances tonight. Nuge had a sitter in the slot, the Holloway/Mcleod/perry line had some near misses too. That might be the layoff too.
Hated how the game was ref’d to be honest, it’s “playoff hockey” so I guess that means anything goes. That does not benefit the Oilers at all. But the Knights did their thing, Hill made that extra save and that’s it.
Wish they could’ve extended it but they went down fighting.
“Tried and true collapse in the d zone”
I don’t like it anymore than you,
But it is (unfortunately) the one true path to the Stanley Cup.
This is an unavoidable fact
Skinner was good. But friken Hill was a little bit better..
Meh,
Oilers finishing was unlucky
Hill was good but I had it 50/50 on Blame vs. Goaltending performance
A couple dead on posts for the Oilers (McDavid & Bouchard at least), a trip leads to possession & a goal for the Knights, and quite a few great chances just barely hitting something.
Sometimes the breaks don’t go your way. Having an extended break before the possible record breaker also didn’t seem to help.
On the positive side, McDavid, Eckholm, Desharnais, Nurse and Skinner all looked awesome. The McCloud line was good, too.
Nurse was responsible for the losing GA.
Skinner was okay – but probably wants both back. Especially goal 1. He should’ve had that.
Yes & Ekholm was puck watching instead of checking Roy on the first goal
Vegas alway puts a forward behind the Oilers D in front of the goaltender. They did it in the playoffs last year over and over again. No Oiler forward ever goes there on offense.
Ceci and Foegele were far more responsible. Ceci let the 2nd Vegas forward get the loose puck. He surrendered position. And Foegele was suckered to leave his man in front of the net. Which makes Hill look like Bernie Parent.
The “Which makes Hill look like Bernie Parent” was supposed to be added to the other post above.
Its been a long time since the Oilers had the 2nd best goaltender on the night.
And it’s not like Skinner played poorly or anything. Hill (and his posts) stole that one. This game highlights the Oilers biggest weakness this season … lack of finish. They can dominate possession all game but their shots often end up low and in the goalies pads.
Sorry but Henrique doesn’t do it for me. He’s more of the same of what we already have. They need to aim higher and they need a more dynamic winger for Leon that can literally aim higher.
Tarasenko.
Dowd.
I have time for Tank lining up next to Leon. Guentzel too.
I’d also talk to Buffalo and find out if they would be interested in moving Tuch.
Going to have to figure out how to penetrate their 5 man bubble and get more second chances. This will be the game plan template vs this team in playoffs
They’d played too defensively and shot badly.
Need to be way more aggressive and shoot high against Vegas. Can’t try to eek a game out 2-1.
They had 83 shot attempts. They had 18 high danger shots. They had 3.7 expected goals. Hill was hot & so were his posts. Nick Hague saved a sure goal.
Sometimes it’s just not your night.
Got gollared. Figured that would be the way it ended, really. Could had 5-6 goals tonight.
Kinda glad the hoopla is over. Time to get back to the grind.
Good effort and great backchecking but they capitalized on a mistake and we didn’t.
On to the next one!
Losing to Vegas hurts. I hope the boys remember this feeling cause they did not get after it tonight against a team missing Eichel and Theodore. I hope mgmt is paying attention because this team needs at least one more scorer for the top 6. Foegele is a 3rd liner.
Time to start a new streak.
Vegas still in the Oilers heads
Terrible third period performance
I don’t give a duck about a winning streak this should have been a statement game and the Oilers have now given up 7/8 leads for losses against this team?
Not good enough
I dunno, the Oilers pushed pretty hard in that third. Missed some chances too. It could have been a different game but that’s hockey. The Oilers are playing some of the most direct, even keel hockey I’ve ever seen them play. While I’m sure they are ticked about losing I doubt the knights are “in their head”. If the Knights want to play that game- they are playing with fire.
Shots 11-5 EDM in the 3rd, a period they have dominated for months.
“Terrible third period performance” is over the top harsh.
Well, that was foreseen – rusty teams which favours defense + losing the goalie battle = well, a bit of relief actually, this streak thing is now over.
The Oilers have some work to do if they’re gonna beat these guys with Eichel and Theodore. Not sure they can bridge the gap.
The oil have more talent.
Needed to sell another PP to the zebras
Nuge and Bouchard, both clear possessions…..both nothing.
Nuge just outright passed it to the Knights.
Brutal. Zero reason to lose that hockey game. Dammit.
Foegele and Draisaitl had a handful of flubbed plays each, tonight.
Bouchard looked rusty too.
Well that sucks.
It was a really nice win streak.
All good things…
So far I don’t think Edmonton deserves the win. They’ve played alright, but have several under-powered players. General lack of crispness.
So Bouchard can skate.
Lol what was that?
Drai’s stationary giveaway shot from the blue?
That was Mark Stone with the defensive play. Leon tried to sift one thru & Stone got a shin pad on it.
Did Leon get away with one there?
You talking about his drop pass to Las Vegas?
vegas pretty much impregnable now, 5 guys in sync guarding the house.
I think they’re legit scared of Adin Hill.
Frustrated maybe….
IT’S A TRAP!!!
Oilers dont have the embellishment game of Vegas
The referee has tripped an Oiler 3 separate times tonight.
And stop shooting low FFS.
Yep, never going to score on Hill near the ice. Plays the game on his knees and his pads are massive
Draisaitl has some rust.
Back pass to nobody.
Hopefully the atom bomb line has some pep.
Oilers gonna need a bounce (or game management) here – VGK aren’t the champs for nuthin!
Take it to the paint.
We have mastered the perimeter of the o zone
Edm getting the better looks, not even close. Sights need a bit of calibration. Could have been up 4-1. Instead we are here.
About 4′ wide for the Perry shot.
Energy level seems to have dropped
Weird game.
Tight checking but I was expecting more emotional investment.
Both teams look like me at work after a two week vacation.
OK lets get the next one. We have been a very good 3 rd period team all year.
Need to see that play again. No trip by the boards there?
Thats what i saw too.. that whole play is a typical vgk goal… oiler full possession, trip down Kane… then get a goal. Never happens if they dont get away with that.
I detest watching games against vegas. Seem to be happy stick swingers. No pims..
Oh well we know thats what the game would be like.
Media always ignores it – too scared to dwell on it.
Ya our broadcast didn’t even mention it… at least replay it if it wasn’t a trip right?
That was 100% a trip by Stephenson. And it went uncalled.
We still had plenty of time to rally, and they came out flat.
On to the next streak.
Man. Big save then D man goes Fishing for half a second and they don’t miss.
Razor thin here.
Foggy left his man to go to the corner. He didn’t have to and left him wide open.
How did Foggy lose all his hockey sense?
I’m seeing him bad tonight
Oilers haven’t given up 2 goals in a while.
An empty netter.
Nurse was super weak on that puck.
Had position….that was Nurses puck.
Adin Hill the difference tonight so far
So far……
Yea he has been very solid. We could easily have been up 3-1.
I really feel that we need one more dynamic winger to play on a line with Leon, that can push Foggy down to the third line.
Kulak getting a but of a push. Two more minutes at 5 on 5 than Vinny through 2.
Barely have to scrap the ice on our side after that period. All that grinding will pay off this period.
If not for their goalie this would be 4-1. He can’t stop em all, though. The goals are going to come.
Stay patient.
They’re playing a decent game. Vegas really misses Theodore, let alone Eichel. I suppose they’re out to make room for a deadline trade with no retained dollars needed.
They’ve got definitely the better chances and possession. Let’s go!!!!