A person could spend all day explaining last night’s loss, or you could just say “Adin Hill and luck” then call it a day. There’s no rage to throw out there, although I’m certain many of you will do it anyway in the comments section. Sometimes you have to give the other man his due. Edmonton couldn’t solve Adin Hill. He’s a helluva goaltender. I suspect the Oilers will see him in the post season. Opening round, no less.
I chose today’s title because the song is about discovery, self discovery, and I do think this Oilers team is maturing for the final run to the ultimate prize. Grab your things, I’ve come to take you home.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
- New DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault’s season and what it means for his future
- Lowetide: What’s changed for Oilers’ Evan Bouchard in his impact season?
- DNB: Quizzing Oilers All-Star Leon Draisaitl on the top 10 NHL goalies he’s scored against
- Lowetide: Everything that went right for the Oilers in their perfect January
- DNB: Ranking the Oilers’ top 5 trade assets: Which ones could be in play?
- Lowetide: Will the Edmonton Oilers go all-in at the 2024 trade deadline?
- Lowetide: Which Edmonton Oilers prospects spiked in January?
- DNB: Jeff Jackson Q&A
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
- DNB: Oilers winning streak lives, but improvement is needed: ‘We got a lot more in our group’
- Lowetide: Why Oilers forward Sam Gagner is having success in his role
- DNB: Stuart Skinner’s superb play should give Oilers more trade deadline flexibility
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual January results: 0-1-0, 0 points in 1 game
- Oilers in 2023-24: 29-16-1, 59 points in 46 games
For me, this is just another reason the Oilers should go out and get the things they need (or might need) at the deadline. Even if you do that (go all-in), you might lose. However, this team is damned good. Maybe next year the injury bug hits or one of the 30+ brigade fades badly. It’s time to finish this thing.
THE NUMBERS
The math of the game heavily favoured the Oilers, with Hill and luck helping the Golden Knights. Vegas is a strong team with great depth and quality, we need to remember it. I thought Stuart Skinner played well, someone needed to box out Nicolas Roy on the first GA and Ceci flew by Chandler Stephenson without blocking the shot while also providing a perfect screen (is my take).
What should we take away from last night? I believe three things:
- The difference between these two teams is razor thin. For that reason, it would be prudent to upgrade where possible. RH center, right wing, No. 7 defense (no upgrade needed but having Philip Broberg in the minors means an extra bona fide blue for the playoffs. That’s an advantage not all teams have) and backup goaltending (if a clear upgrade is available). This trade deadline is the last chance Texaco, maybe for the McDavid era.
- There were some issues for Edmonton. Pinpoint passing was rare, and the defense (even Bouchard) didn’t seem to have the execution down. Understandable, there was a layoff. Vegas seemed more efficient using the middle of the ice against the Oilers than vice versa.
- There were VGK lined up for every Draisaitl pass across the middle at the opposition blue line. This is a well coached team that scouts tendencies. They’re on to Draisaitl, he needs to drive into the zone and set up more often. The defense is reading him.
- Forwards and defense at times were slow to offer support in the offensive end. If a player (even Leon) is getting outnumber, support needs to arrive while puck possession remains in the balance.
- The coaching staff should not overreact. This was a loss to a good team and the result runs counter to the math of the game. It happens.
- Oilers fans will get mad at Kris Knoblauch running 97-29 together, but their scoring rates (goals-60) are higher together at five-on-five over the last three seasons. I know it’s fashionable to get angry and call everybody stupid, and for some reason that’s a winning formula online. That said, I think a coach should stay true to himself and every coach has done it.
- For the record, 97-29 have been together an average of 4:06 per game five-on-five under Knoblauch. McDavid’s totals solo are a little shy of the two men together (4.43 to 4.11 goals-60), Leon does much better with the captain so far this year. Small sample alert.
- Do not underestimate the officiating. That’s what you’ll see in the postseason and it does negatively impact the Oilers. The difference now, and this has to do with the personal revelation of Solsbury Hill as today’s song choice, the difference now is that the Oilers are also getting away with murder. I wish the refs would call it straight up, too, but that’s not what the NHL is all about, now or ever.
MCDAVID REACTION
At the end of the game, cameras caught Connor McDavid raining down blows on a water bottle, and lots of verbal out there about what it means. I think the lack of a penalty call on 97 might have been it, other informed folks have suggested to me privately it might have been about a lack of execution on the power play. No matter. It’s done. The post-game comments, for me, were all terrific. This team is a helluva group. I believe they can win Stanley. I also believe the management should give them a lift at the deadline.
It all starts at noon (to 2pm) on the Lowdown, Sports 1440. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will lay down the righteous truth on last night’s game (I imagine he’ll call out the stripes on the McDavid penalty non-call) and we’ll look forward to the California games. We’ll also talk Super Bowl. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
https://theathletic.com/5256491/2024/02/07/oilers-golden-knights-win-record/
NEW for The Athletic: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
https://theathletic.com/5253586/2024/02/07/oilers-winning-streak-stats-mcdavid/
I agree with LT, it’s ALL IN time for Holland.
I’ve landed on the 2024 Ekholm target, has a NTC, so there is that, but must be so sick & tired of losing…
Here are my targets:
Tarasenko 50% retained for Foegele + 2 2nds
Jake Allen in a 3-way deal with CBJ, Soup + Akey to CBJ, Elvis to Habs, Habs send 2 2nds (or equivalent) to Ohio.
Fowler (2 more seasons remaining), Henrique (UFA), Lyubushkin (UFA) – all 50% retained
For: Ceci, Kulak, Bourgault, Lavoie, 3 1st rounders.
91 – 97 – 18
93 – 29 – Tank
71 – AH – 90
13 – 55 – 28/10
25 – Fowler
14 – 2
86 – 73
7th D – Lyubushkin
Thoughts?
I also like Jayson Megna as a low cost 7-8 D target and at 6’6” he fits the Holland D template.
Prices seem off, we’re not offloading Soup with Akey and Foegele isn’t a cap dump, he has TDL value if we aren’t keeping him.
Perhaps, but we got AA for 2 2nds (without retention) & he had 10 goals at the TDL & was a league worst -45.
Tarasenko has won a Cup & is a bonafide sniper, currently has 15 goals and has close to 15% shooting.
Why on earth would Montreal agree to that trade.
they get rid of Allen, replace him with a more expensive, arguably less reliable goalie, and lose two second round picks.
oh they would laugh.
i don’t even think cbj would accept, even with Montreal’s picks thrown in. I wouldn’t.
They have lots of picks, and they need a vet G.
The word in Columbus is Elvis is a disruptive sort of personality & Campbell is an amazing human and if he recovers his game, as he is appearing to have done, could legit help the team and young G Tarasov.
And Elvis has always been viewed as having tremendous potential, he might be seen as someone who needs a change of scenery to really find consistency.
Hey LT et al,
I was reading your comments about Draisaitl and had the exact same thoughts about how teams have figured out that delay, pivot, and pass to the middle. In all the years I’ve coached, you begin to see that each players has patterns. The true great ones have multiple patterns and are constantly inventing new ones, but every player has patterns.
It is hard to break those, especially if players had success with them in the past. Every coach you know, has that one player that has that one predictable low success move and you know it’s coming, but what do you do? It’s a .001% problem with the player, but it will make you go grey.
Hey Coach.
Have a question I sometimes wish I’d hear the media ask, at different intervals, of the NHL staff.
Is it easier to coach details/improve habits when your’e winning, or losing games?
Would absolutely love to hear your take on this subject.
That is an awesome question and one I’ve never really thought about. Of course I only speak of coaching kids 0-19 years of age, with some high performance thrown in there (AAA rep, BC Best Ever), but never pro.
It all boils down to the environment you create on the ice and in your program. I imagine in the last days of Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, they may have had the best and most well-planned practices/ teaching sessions laid out, but the players would have none of it. The inverse is also true. If you have a little blip, players are more apt to make small adjustments. I imagine Knoblauch and his staff are reviewing the roles of the forwards coming back into their zone today as there were a couple blown assignments. But I digress. Sorry, I just get excited when I talk about this and tend to ramble. Think of Badger Bob Johnson.
As far as the winning goes, it is easier to fine tune the teaching. Players often talk about the game slowing down when things are going well, so you do have a better opportunity to teach in those moments. The atmosphere is more relaxed and players are just having more fun, especially in the business of pro hockey. When your job is to win, a streak is a good indicator of your weekly review and you go to the rink feeling just a little better and more willing to learn.
Personalities come into play as well. The rookie will be overwhelmed no matter what the situation, while the veteran will play through things. It can be tough to take all those individuals and make them move in the same direction, but that is your job.
I guess I look at my current team of u-13 girls, many of whom have never played. We play in a boy league, so scoreboard wise, we just aren’t cutting it, but at the very beginning, my expectation is that we are all going to work hard, keep it positive, and never ever give up. It is a tough chore to sell a team on your drills when you were just hammered 12-1 a day earlier, but you sell short term that the game yesterday is done, we don’t talk about it or worry about it and we are going to get ready for the next.
One last thing, and I stole a page out of Bob Johnson’s book, I always ask my girls what day it is, and they have to enthusiastically say, “It’s a great day for hockey!”
So my short answer is you can teach skills through anything, but of course if you know your team and you see the energy isn’t there that day, then defensive zone coverage goes out the window and it’s time for chariot races and VolleyHockey 3000 (hockey with a volleyball, but it stays on the ice and you can only use your hands (psst, it teaches players to bend their knees)).
I hope I’ve answered your question.
Summarizing!
It just wasn’t Nathan’s Day as he was shelled for nine goals on 25 shots for his third straight loss.
Prospecting takes a break until Friday.
And they left him in for all 9?
Yes.
I was surprised he didn’t get the hook after allowing five goals in the middle frame to trail 6-1.
There have been a couple other games in which he’s gotten lit up for several goals yet remained in the game. IIRC, he’s only been yanked once so far this season.
This is like how Tippett never pulled goalies, making them “fight through it” (paraphrasing).
Cruel and unusual punishment.
Can’t be good for the confidence.
If the Oilers want to win this year they willl have to exorcise many playoff demons.
They will likely have to beat Vegas and then one of Dallas, Colorado, or Winnipeg. All teams that have either recently or historically dumpstered the Oilers in the playoffs.
Is Skinner an exorcist?
Team defense is the exorcist.
Still a few vet BF/60
Nobody’s perfect, but a serious team needs those that don’t fold when it’s on. Rise to the occasion
Knobs could be the exorcist. Also Perry.
Stu has been great and a huge part of the turn around. I was curious about his numbers since the change. 800 Minutes
5V5
SV% .924 8TH
GA 40 17TH
xGA 49.03 10th
HDSV% .821 16TH
AV SHOT DISTANCE 35.19 11TH closest
AV GOAL DISTANCE 16.63 2ND closest
ALL STRENGTHS
SV% .925 2ND
GA 52 14TH
xGA 67.55 28TH
HDSV% .833 9TH
AV SHOT DISTANCE 34.87 13TH closest
AV GOAL DISTANCE 17.33 5TH closest
Stu is ahead of his 5v5 xGA by 9.03 which is great. The PK seems to have boosted his ranking in SV%, GA, HDSV%. The team is in the bottom 1/3 of the league SH Dist and not good in G Dist
I wish we could get Clear Sight data showing puck movement. I sent them an email about if a fan can get anything, you never know!
Kevin Woodley mentioned Hill’s strengths and how Vegas’ strengths compliment his. He’s strong in the ‘low slot’ and they make getting shots and seam plays hard to do
What these numbers say to me is Stu is good with longer out shots and is weaker close in. Yes all goalies are weaker the closer in, but we see his HDSV% ranking in both strengths lags his SV% ranking
Than matches what I see. He isn’t as strong down low and sometimes has glove trouble. I’m not trashing him. He’s good and good enough
But what can they do to bolster Stu’s game and increase their chances of deep success? We know that they have greatly reduced their GA and Rushes Against, what was torpedoing them at the start
This is where Clear Sight would be great. That they are weaker in Sh and G Distance, are they still not defending the scoring areas as well as the rest? Perhaps still giving up more low/high and seam plays as compared to other top teams? Giving up more D entries and having more trouble moving it up?
To me this supports those that think any D upgrade is important, if it’s possible. To improve these areas that aren’t currently strong and help the goalies out even more
Getting a quality C helps as well if they are back tracking and not making defensive zone mistakes, but I think it would be less of an impact as it seems close in is the weakness, more plays here are probably on the defensmen
I think I disagree with your analysis.
If the average goal distance is low relative to the league, and the average goal distance is signficantly less than than average shot distance, that means the goaltender is very good, and the team defense, particularly in the high danger areas, is bad.
The stats above suggest Skinner is a very good goaltender.
If the average goal distance skew to low, that implies a good goaltender and poor team defense in the high danger area.
Both shot distance and goal difference are closer in than league average
Shots are on team, goals involve goalie. Stu has a lower ranked HDSV% than SV%. That is him compared to others
He is good but that’s his weakness. He’s not as good in close. And as I said I see that
He likely will improve as the team D does (fingers crossed) and gains experience. But that’s what is happening now
I disagree. Lower average goal distance implies a goaltender is better, not worse. Particularly if it is significantly less than average shot distance.
HDSV% is a more a measure of the quality of team defense (a goaltender is part of team defense). And as I argued elsewhere in this todays comments, all HD chances are not created equal, and are significantly impacted by the quality of team defense.
We know the OIlers defending is suspect in close. Last night was an explicit example of this.
Remember that old saying….when the team loses a game that they should have won, that is often the start of a winning streak.
Teams should be able to trade for both present and future cap space. That would make the league much more interesting.
It’s still not the ideal system which would involve much more flexibility, but it would be better.
They should do anything to facilitate player movement to allow teams to improve
Of course within rules and considerations, but what other pro league has such policies that inhibit movement? Regular folk have to move a lot too for work, have families, and most aren’t getting paid like that
Travis Konecny.
$5.5MM AAV for this season and next, no trade protection. Fancy stats this year are almost off the graph compared to previous seasons. Heavy deployment against elite and middle competition (40.3% and 39.3% respectively). Double digit CF% rels against those two tiers, positive against grits. Killing the elite/middle tiers in DFF% rels, and a shockingly low ONSV% against grits killing his other counting stats (including GF%).
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8478439
Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/travis-konecny
LT, didn’t they only get 1 PP?
Yes, good catch. I wrote PP but was thinking about the play selection after the goaltender was pulled.
Apparently Travis Konecny may be available.
Price would be very high, but having him for two playoff runs would be worth it.
Oilers would have to trade Kulak’s salary and probably need Philly to retain to do it.
When I’ve done some rosters at CF adding a 5M seems to mean one has to go out for next season
Unless they buy out Campbell and have an NHL minimum backup. Then they could shoehorn him in.
Probably could this year, next year it’s a prob
Good to see you come around 😉
A week ago I thought, “no way Philly moves this player”, but Seravalli indicated, especially after Carter Hart’s departure, that the Flyers were exploring his trade value.
Make no mistake, it would take a massive haul.
Well, yeah. Last week I was saying it was a possibility, and you said fat chance. Now it’s on the radar. This is a very positive development.
Who do you like between Tarasenko/Konecny/Tuch as a premium RW add?
Independent of who won that last night, I don’t see how I could say that was fun to watch. Both teams played nearly perfect defensive games. They were being careful. They both wanted the win much more than wanting to play great hockey. Basically playoff mentality which leads to the kind of game we often witness in the playoffs. Some “HD chances”, but not really HD chances. They were all really well covered/low prob.
I have to admit, I’m not a fan. The Vegas series last post-season was not entertaining. It’s grinding, boring hockey that makes me just want to watch the highlights and save the time for something else. It reminds me of the NJD, DAL, MIN teams of the naughts. It’s a very boring brand of hockey enabled by referees who are unwilling to call the game by the rules when there is a lot on the line.
Vegas made one mistake, and the Oilers made them pay. Brilliant line management by KK. Full marks for the timing.
The first GA was a typical grinding game hockey goal that is going to happen. Yes it would have been nice if the rebound could have been controlled, but they all can’t. Yes it would have been nice to tie up Roy’s stick, but he’s a big body and Eck was on him pretty quickly and he still managed to get a couple cracks. AND Skinner still almost saved both of them. He got a piece. Hat tip to Vegas for a well executed goal with the right personnel in the right places. The Oilers could learn from this goal if they want to have a chance to push far in the playoffs. Pucks on net, big body in front to shovel in rebounds.
The second GA was the Oilers only mistake. Ceci did everything he was supposed to there. Foegele was doing the centerman’s job or F1 if you will. He did a good job of it and stayed with the man after the pass. What was missing was the third forward to cover the shooter. He was missing for the entire Dzone sequence until the very end after the goal goes in when Drai finally skates in a day late and a dollar short. Draisaitl left the boys 4v5 and they paid the price of the game for it. He was cherry picking between the blue and red line. As the centreman, he should usually be the F1 forward…the most defensibly responsible forward – especially on a line with a winger like Kane. He doesn’t seem to have it in him though. He cheated for offense and we pay.
That goal is the difference between winning and losing in this game and that single goal can be the difference in an entire playoff series where two teams play near perfect hockey. It’s critical that Drai changes his game. Defense first. Everyone must get back below the puck. Every second counts. Yzerman did it, and the Red Wings finally won the cup. Sakic too.
He’s an offensive magician. Last night, he was a defensive liability.
Full marks to the shooter who had all day to pick his spot and nailed the top corner.
Great comment. The second half of the 3rd was very much 90s-Devils trap hockey. With Martinez and Pietrangelo, it’s suffocating. As a fan of the good guys, it was frustrating immensely. Some might call that ‘good entertainment’, I don’t.
Only someone with an emotional investment could have enjoyed the second half of the third — until Skinner was pulled Vegas ceased to forecheck and conceded 50% of the ice in order to retreat back into the neutral zone.
Nice comment, welcome to thumbs down!
I don’t agree though on the 2nd GA. Watching the replay, Nurse tried to reverse check Cotter and was looking for the puck. He let Cotter inside with the puck. Ceci took the wrong angle likely trying to take the net front lane away, and was off his line so ended up behind and couldn’t take the body on Marss
Ceci went out front when Foegele approached Marss, but Foegele went for a reaching stick check instead of keeping his feet moving and taking the body, putting himself out of the play and no puck. Ceci went swooping out only managing to screen Skinner and getting nowhere near the shooter, ending up in the slot
That was 3 mistakes on standard basic plays. Nurse should have got to the puck and moved it up the boards, or pinned Cotter, did neither. Ceci should have checked Marss behind the net. He’s small and wasn’t moving fast and Ceci was skating towards him. Feogele should have gone directly at Marss with speed and taken his time way, or switched off and let Ceci take him as he was almost there. Ceci should have blocked the lane to the short side shot either stationary to get any rebound or skating at the shooter, and left Skinner his sight line
To me that wasn’t a high speed broken play that was chaotic so they couldn’t react well. It was a typical cycle play which mistakes allowed to progress. Foegele’s play reminded me of the one in the playoffs where he muffed a switch, skating into a guy taking himself out with Nurse also at the blue line. The Oilers got no such room at the other end
On the first goal, If Ekholm lets Roy behind him he has to stop the shot. Or not let Roy get net front on him. Bouch was also out too far to get to Roy in time. Little mistakes can have big consequences
If that happened on Hill I doubt it’s a goal
Near perfect analysis of a game that promised so much and delivered nothing but grindingly frustrating rugby on ice hockey ala the LA Kings under Sutter.
It’s not particularly interesting hockey other than for fanatics.
Perhaps this 32 and apparently soon to be even more expanded NHL is happy to provide this type of minimalist form of gambling driven “entertainment”. Gambling is certainly the focus, the reason d’etre. They might as well provide strippers and mud wrestling in between whistles.
Highlight reel hockey; where the refs do everything that they can to provide certainty to a formerly randomly awesome experience. Kind of like a 21st century peep show.
Not saying dri can’t improve and couldn’t of gotten back faster but in all fairness he was tripped hard going the other way and would of been hard pressed getting back into the play even if he did bounce right back up after
Nice post.
As was noted, Draisaitl was not missing because he was cheating for offense.
He was missing because he was tripped on the turnover at center ice.
I don’t think it’s possible to argue he was cherry picking on the play.
9 thumbs down? When did the trolls get in here?
Excellent analysis.
Warren Foegele is tied for 51st in the NHL forwards for points at 5 on 5 and he’s tied for 20th with Ehlers and Robert Thomas for P/60 at 5 on 5.
For all the words written and said about him not being a 2nd line winger, he’s certainly producing as one (as a 1st liner actually).
Case closed, then. No point in trying to upgrade the team then.
Sarcasm aside, I like WF. I just think he’s the natural spot to upgrade. Glad he’s on a heater this year, but he’s playing beyond his established level of ability. Who knows when he reverts to the meat.
Won’t be able to upgrade everything, but that doesn’t mean Old Dutch shouldn’t try.
I also think the Draisaitl line needs an upgrade. I think McLeods speed and hands are the missing element. Right now both of Draisaitls current wingers are shooters, not puck transporters or handlers (although someone should probably mention this to Foegele).
The in house solution would be to move Holloway to 3C. I think he could handle it. To me he looks more comfortable at center, and it allows him to use his legs more.
Didn’t like Cecis play on the 2nd goal last night. He got beat 1 on 1 behind the net and never recovered.
The flip side is that Desharnais seems to be getting better every game. I didn’t see the bad giveaways that some posters are mentioning. I saw Ceci and Bouchard turn the puck over multiple times as well. The difference is that Desharnais defends better than both of these players in his own zone.
This, was waiting to post this exact thought on McLeod going up and Kane down with Holloway in the middle with Perry.
Yep. Still might want a better finisher than Foegele on the right wing. If the Oilers don’t add a scoring winger I would be tempted to try Perry there.
4C is the biggest hole there.
Foegele has been great, but heaven forbid the Oilers look at upgrading the position for the team considering they should be all in and Warren is at contracts end.
Of course, look to upgrade everywhere.
My posts are in responses to overt positions that he’s not a top 6 forward as he has certainly been one over the course of this season, objectively.
Certainly look to upgrade but that’s a costly acquisition for a position that’s been covered pretty well this year.
Leon isn’t the easiest center to play with I don’t think and the uptick on Leon’s results with Foegele over 3 years is real.
ESPN put up a stat during their broadcast last night that I didn’t see mentioned in the game thread.It flashed on screen when he double dinged the posts, IIRC.
“Evan Bouchard leads all NHLers with 72 shot attempts at 90+ mph.”
If I recall correctly, the gap between Evan and the guy in second is more than second place has altogether.
This reminds me of Sheldon Souray when he fired one. It was so fast that if he missed, everyone on the ice was looking around for where the puck ended up.
I used to hang around a bit with an Oiler defenseman in the early 90s. He told me that Al MacInnis had the most terrifying shot he had to face. While defending slapshots he said he could follow the puck from anyone except MacInnis. Said his eyes couldn’t pick up the puck in motion, just a black three foot blur. A tad unnerving he told me.
On a somewhat related note….Colin Miller of the NJD uncorked the hardest shot of the season last night..102.59 MPH.
He had one clocked at 98.8 last night and it got through clean. Hill made the save and had to move to make the stop – it just didn’t hit him.
Durag mentioned Desharnais having issues in the neutral zone. I happened to have looked around this AM to see if any of the in depth stats companies are releasing public data, and they aren’t that I can find
But I checked out NHL Edge and they have a little and there was a stat I noticed that relates to Durag’s observation and my thoughts on the D group. I compared the Vegans to us
The Oilers are approaching Above Average in O zone and D zone time, higher and lower respectively. But they are at the opposite end in Neutral zone possession, Vegans 18.2% (league average) Oilers 17.4% (below average at the lowest of the scale)
Some here saw the Oilers as outplaying the Vegans, I didn’t see it that way. I look for quality of play more than having the puck a lot and banging it around. I noticed they really struggled getting through the N zone cleanly. This lead to a lot of weak O zone entries (and classic Drai turnovers just inside the O line) and D zone clears coming straight back in, like the good old days. This was against an average N zone team
I wasn’t a fan of how they played in the O Zone, Connor going kamikaze skating laps, nobody to set up and taking a lot of low chance shots. He was frustrated, I can’t imagine. I wasn’t thinking they needed Guentzel, but man a guy that knows how to play in front, find space, and can finish by shooting would be a Godsend for Connor. Not a strength for Nuge or Hyman (yes Hyman has 30, but he didn’t get a sniff in the most important game of the year, did he?)
Knoblauch said the way to beat teams like the Vegans is play fast, don’t let them set up. Coffey said play fast and make plays up so the forwards can do their job
That was not happening last night. We (and the management) need to separate how nice a guy is, how hard he tries, how much he cares and wants to be an Oiler, how good he is in the room, from being good enough for the team as it is now. Or how big he is
As a few of us have been saying who feel D upgrading is needed, the ‘getting by’ play of Ceci would be seriously challenged in playoffs again, or by a fast hard checking team. I have said I feel Des is at risk as well, because he is not mobile and does not handle the puck well
Making the odd good pass or play isn’t enough for this team. They need 6 reliable good or better skating and puck moving D. Why? because if Vegas gets healthy and something doesn’t change with the quality of getting to and attacking in the O Zone, we will have heartbreak again. It’s too easy to mess up the transition with two marginal puck movers, leaving only one pair that moves the puck at a top level
Defending better, great. They have to learn how to beat smothering teams with big good goalies. They aren’t there yet. I think they are short a C, but improving the quality of puck movement is the key thing to improve because it will make the forwards better at the same time. Getting a C only conversely doesn’t necessarily make the D with issues better
We at CoH had Hyman with 3 Grade A shots last night. He couldn’t solve Hill either.
Yes I always look at the game grades, fine work Bruce
For me Hyman gets in close, and he has a bunch of goals, but sometimes his chances aren’t to me likely to score. More luck of the scramble. He was getting so tight into the goal yesterday that he had no room to do anything if he did manage to get a puck
Roy was a few feet out so he could get a swipe at the puck without Stu being rite on him for example. He moved out a bit as the play developed. There was that play where Zach was at the side of the net and the play was coming across, but he was right on the post and his feet where in the paint for a bit. Not your typical scorer’s positioning, nothing came of it
Sometimes he’s banging at the side of the net, but if the goalie is strong down low which many are these days, good luck. I think teams better at finishing off the cycle ‘in tight games’ are making passes to players close in but with enough space to get a quality shot off or room to get it up. Soft areas scorers find. Getting the goalie moving is key to beating guys like Hill when they are on. I didn’t think the good guys did that well yesterday
Not trashing Zach, but he’s not a natural finisher to me
I’m not sure you’re reading this correctly.
The ‘Edge’ stats say the Oilers are 93rd percentile in Ozone time and 90th percentile in Dzone time. That means top 10% in most Ozone time, and top 10% in least Dzone time.
That’s exceptional on both counts (top 10% in a 32 team league would be ~3rd best of 32 teams at both ends of the ice). That’s not ‘approaching above average… higher and lower respectively’.
Vegas are 50th and 53rd percentile FWIW (ie – they actually are league average).
And I’m not sure how to interpret more/less Nzone time as good/bad. Whatever the case, league average is 17.8, so the Oilers and Kinghts (17.4 and 18.2) are exactly the same distance from it.
I’d be tempted to think that teams spending less time in the Nzone are the ones moving the puck more efficiently to the good end of the ice vs. those that spend more time there (ie – Oilers > Vegas). That the Oilers are top 10% in most Ozone time and top 10% in least Dzone time would, I think, agree with that take.
However one interprets the Nzone time, the Edge stats very clearly show the Oilers tilting the ice. Far more than Vegas is doing this season, and among the best teams in the league.
Alex Tuch looks like more of a Holland type acquisition than Tarasenko, age (27) aside.
$4.750MM AAV for two full seasons after this one. M-NTC. Heavy deployment against elites and middle competition (33.5% and 41.0% respectively). In the black with CF% and DFF% rels against elites/grits, a touch underwater against the middle tier, while surprisingly riding higher PDO and SH% than other tiers of competition. Getting killed by ONSV% against elites and gritensity.
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8477949
Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/alex-tuch
Holland has a tendency to make his big moves by acquiring players with term (which is smart) rather than UFAs so it’s going to be interesting to see what happens.
Taking into account that Holland likes to get players with term rather than the pure rentals, Tuch would be my dream target; mentioned him last night and have been thinking about it for a while before. No idea if Buffalo would entertain dealing him or just laugh and hang up. He’s also from Buffalo, so he may not want to move back West. On the other hand, he may have a score to settle with his former club, and would jump at the chance to end Vegas’ run as reigning Cup Champions.
You mentioning it last night prompted me to do a cursory review. He’s a player I’ve like a long time, but never really considered him realistic. He’s barely just arrived in BUF, and was a main part of the package that sent Eichel to VGK.
That said, he’d be an ideal target, and a load on Leon’s RW.
When acquired from Vegas, much was made of the fact that that he is from nearby Syracuse NY…in effect a local boy.
I wonder if that would play a factor in whether or not Buffalo would move him.
Yes, as mentioned, his M-NTC could be an impediment to acquisition.
Cross ice passes and back door plays only work when lanes come open. If you rarely take the straight lanes and it’s scouted, teams close down the back door plays.
Oilers guns are known for passing. Switch it up. Nobody likes standing in front of 100mph Bouchard shots. Fire the puck into the mob Bouchard. Cracks will form. Then when you do go for the cross seam pass it might actually be open.
Vegas had shut down and was picking apart the Oilers short pass up the middle breakout. Oilers could switch to wingers out of the zone by redline and defence fire the puck up the boards past the deep for checking knights wingers. Basically the Woodcroft breakout. Switch, change, be unpredictable.
I would not suggest Oilers change what they have been doing for success overall, I am suggesting they adapt in game at times, particularly when it looks like a team has scouted them and has an effective solution, then switch.
And I will refer back to the third period when Vegas scored to get the lead and instantly changed their game plan to full defence trap from the 13 minute mark onwards. Coach asked for it, they delivered. Oilers had no answer for the tactic, looked completely lost in my opinion, when they should have been ready for it.
Great post.
I admire your ability to break down systems play.
I’m not that savvy but I am fascinated when plays and systems are slowed down and explained in detail.
B. Curlock is also excellent at this.
Cheers.
To me it’s imperative to have countering systems to adjust. When they take something they give something up. I would love to see such wrinkles on PP as well
They have long struggled with a a consistent and effective net front game which is exactly how you counter that D style, screen and get some puck movement and quick shots not right at the goalie
We at Cult of Hockey had Oilers with 3 Grade A shots including a pair of 5 alarm chances in the final 8 minutes.
What they had no answer for, was Adin Hill.
But did they shoot hight?
Bouchard’s pucks were getting blocked all night long.
This was a very good experience for the Oilers. They met their Achilles heel….again.
This is the style and the game plan that has beaten them for years.
Oilers have more talent. They have more creativity and more offence.
Knights have a mature team with a game plan. Big goalie, 5 men cover the slot, they make zero mistakes. They wait. When the chance comes they have plenty of skill to finish.
That’s the game plan you have to beat boys. Adding a player or two won’t help much. It may help but it’s not THE answer, They have pretty well any other style beat. Find a solution for the Achilles heel before playoffs start.
Vegas was without their best puck moving defensemen and their best puck moving forward last night.
I mentioned in the GDT that the game seemed to be in slow motion after watching the Canucks/Hurricanes high octane display.
I expect the Knights will be able to ramp their game speed up when fully healthy.
Can the Oilers?
“Can the Oilers?”
For someone who claims to watch the games, you sure have a way of not demonstrating that.
Other than McDavid and McLeod, the Oilers are not speed demons and their most recent addition certainly doesn’t change that.
Perhaps Holloway will become more effective but that’s looking increasingly unlikely.
Both Eichel and Theodore play at a high pace.
Define “speed demon” and list all of the speed demons from Vegas.
And are you saying “game speed” is defined purely by who skates faster?
This is the great thing about phrases like “slow motion” and “speed demon”. You don’t need to back them up with anything, because they don’t have a precise meaning. The goalposts practically move themselves!
You know those slow motion Oilers, they won those 16 games just by boring their opposition into submission.
Let me guess. I’m going out on a limb here – you don’t think so.
Noone that watched the Oilers generally this year and the last night’s game can objectively say that it doesn’t look like Holloway can become more effective.
The Oilers dominated the Knights with Holloway on the ice last night, 14-3 Cori and 90% expected goals.
Oh no. Today the picture of the broken tree branch laying on the road returns. I don’t know what it means, cannot figure it out. But this about the 7th appearance of the broken tree branch. Thoughts?
It’s so you can look at the sad, dying vegetation and think “at least we’re not those Leafs”
I don’t disagree with LT’s comments on the first goal but if Stu is playing the shooter he’s out of position full stop. Were he properly centred on the shot he gets a piece of it imo. Whether or not you think that reading holds water, Stu played well, it’s only one goal, and Oil need to learn to overcome that playing this team in particular.
Something I’ve noticed about how guys skate is leg drive. Older guys who are ‘slow’ maybe aren’t, what is different is how many times they stride before coasting
The natural skaters can stride the length of the ice and often still backtrack with speed. The one that struggle often only take 2-3 strides and coast. So they are slow getting around and reacting
I don’t know if it’s cardio or what, but it’s noticeable. Whatever is ailing Leon might be lower body, because he isn’t skating hard for much distance right now
Did you notice his backcheck in the 3rd period?
Yes but isn’t that supposed to be doing that all game? You must notice watching so closely Bruce that when he doesn’t have his legs that’s when he’s a turnover machine and gets risky
Pickard starts Friday (and Skinner Saturday), right?
Picks and prospects out for additions is all good – I’d be VERY weary of trading either Borberg or Holloway for a rental or anything short of an Ekholm like win on the premise of cheap value contracts that will make impacts outperforming their cap hits for a next few years at least.
The main issue is cap structuring for any material move.
With the current roster and if they were able to keep it with no other changes, the Oilers will be able to fit an AAV of apx $2MM at the deadline,
Of course, its not feasible to run with 21 players and only 6D all season long. They will have a 7th d-man on this roster at times I’m sure.
If they were to call up Kemp or Gleason today and keep 7D through to the deadline, they’d be able to fit in an AAV of apx $1MM, just a smidge more.
Lets saw it off and say they have $1.5MM of AAV they can add come the deadline.
Its going to be expensive to get double retainment on a Guentzel or Henrique type contract to cut it down to fit.
Chance are a roster player will need to go out, and I’m not talking Jammark or Brown or Gagner.
Yeah, it’s always better to have NHL calibre players you can stash in the minors (Broberg, Holloway, Lavoie) than to move them and hope for the best. Those of us old enough to remember Buffalo in 2006 having a stellar team and them being within a period of making the finals but having to use 10(!) defenceman in 18 games (and losing 5 of them to injury) finally caught up to them. Send any of the kids you want but remember NHL players can’t be acquired in April.
Still remember the Sabres playing with 3 d-men in the 3rd period of Game 7 vs. the Canes.
I had 9 Sabres players in my playoff pool that year and the Oilers had already made the finals so that was a hard loss to watch
My Haiku:
Stars break disappoints
Nights bring lament, though the new
daylight brings new hope
Its been a long time since the Oilers had the second best goalie in a game and that’s with Skinner having a very solid/decent game. Both goalies lets in less goals than expected by Hill do so by a larger margin and make a couple of 5-alarm saves and was the difference.
The Oilers’ skaters were better than the Knights’ skaters in aggregate .
I blame the LT community for responding to HH’s post on Hill (including myself).
That’s it. LT needs to ban you from the next important game so you don’t make that mistake again 😉
Expected goals: EDM 3.7, VGK 2.7.
Goals saved above expected: Hill +2.7, Skinner +0.7.
Loss not on Stu, but the other guy was better.
Play enough 2-1 games, you’re bound to lose the odd one in this league.
The one thing I’ll say about the Knight’s goaltenders is that they all look like lacrosse goalies. There is so much extra padding on their arms and shoulders. It’s no excuse for the lose, but Aidan Hill looked like he was wearing one of those inflatable sumo costumes in his post game interviews.
Yes it’s ridiculous. I thought they had a guy to measure the gear. No way what he has on should be legal
There’s a pretty well rolled out saying around these parts about winning some games at the end of a streak that you should probably lose – we def had a few of those towards the end of the streak – and then during losing streaks, losing some games that you damned well should have won. Last night was one of those nights. The Oilers dominated and with a mix of Adin Hill being great, and some bad luck, couldn’t get the win.
I’d say this is a sign they’re about to kick on and go on a bit of a run here.
In all seriousness I can’t fault anything about last night from the Oilers side. The effort was there, and if they play like that the rest of the year they’ll win far more games than they’ll lose.
My initial feeling was that it’s easily up there for being the most satisfied with the team I’ve felt after a loss. Let the rivalry roll! Use this in the playoffs.
Both Goaltenders were stellar. Game could have gone either way. those damn Knights had twice as many power plays as usual. Not that it made a difference.
Couple of things from last night:
Overall, sky not falling, the team is good and probably wins that game 6/10 times. We’re not going to sweep Vegas in the playoffs.
I was very much thinking this too during the game. The Oilers need to accept and plan for Vegas getting ~1.5 more powerplays per game.
They need to learn how to be more sneaky with tying up their man on o-zone powerplay faceoffs, or stop doing it. Last night was the 4th or 5th time I’ve seen it happen this year. NHL refs love to call penalties against the team on the PP.
Oilers went 0 for 0.75 on the PP last night, So many great chances in that minute & a half that the refs pledged to pocket their whistles for the duration.
Very frustrating. The way special teams are going I’d prefer a game with 3-4 PPs each. There certainly were enough infractions for that to have occurred last night.
I’ll have to watch the game again I guess to catch all the egregious penalties that were missed. Somehow I didn’t see all this crying last night on the timeline
“McLeod was carrying the puck with speed along the o-zone boards”
They lost the game because they don’t create the right kind of chances to beat a team doing that with a huge goalie playing well. The boards were well polished, they accepted being forced to the perimeter. Some shots are close in and counted as HD, but they aren’t all HD to the goalie
It’s going to the net, taking shots that are hard to save (puck movement or high), and having guys find soft ice and getting behind the coverage to take a set up from say a driving McLeod
Like they did to us
Not to bang on Foegle too much because he’s been a really valuable player for us. I’d say he has been an unexpected surprise this season. But holy hell man, can you quit dipsy doodling inside our own blueline? You don’t have the skill to consistently beat an opposition player in that danger area. It almost seems like since he’s playing with Leon that he feels that he has to try Leon moves. You are not Leon. Stick to your strengths which are very valuable.
This, he has been doing this the last 4-5 games
This is why he is a 3rd liner. He has enough skill and speed to go on runs, but not enough hands and hockey sense to keep it going. He also has a hard shot, but is by no means a dangerous shooter. Get me Tank
Leon himself could do it less,
When I saw we had a week off and had to then tie the streak against the Knights, I had a bad feeling about this. Not always a pleasure being right.
Still: McDavid crossbar, Bouchard post, Hill being fiery hot. And one PP. And they still could have won the game.
The #1 thing this team needed to figure out was how to play the elite teams and saw off 5v5 and not just rely on their historic PP, as we know the whistles are going away in the playoffs and Nurse will get suspended for a game regardless.
As LT has in his article, it seems like they are figuring it out.
And if I recall Woodguy/Darcy’s analysis of the Cup winners & playoff teams from previous years, they consistently had over 50%GF without their superstar players on the ice.
It’s happening.
The Knights just might end up being this team’s version of the Islanders they need to figure out how to get past.
Good game last night. Really too bad they lost. Now let’s see how the Oilers react.
Oilers need to find a way to consistently beat the Knight’s trap and collapse system.
Need a scoring RW to play with Drai.
The Oilers have a really strong team this year, them mimicking VKG’s defensive alignment has definitely made them better in ’24, but it’s kinda funny anytime an informed Oilers commenter leaves out the VKG was missing their best player (Eichel) and their best defenseman (Theodore). Plus no Carrier, Hutton, or Dorofeyev either.
In this day and age we generally attribute player health as being a skill, but EDM has lost what, 6 man games lost all year to anyone of consequence where VGK leads the league.
yes and most Oiler commentators will also say how close these two teams are. But my worry is they should not be this close considering who VKG was missing. It is imperative we get an upgrade at the deadline and Connor Brown remembers how to score
Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights – Tuesday February 6 2024 – MoneyPuck.com
They weren’t close. The Oilers dominated. Hill played out of his mind.
Once Eichel etc. comes back the teams will be a lot closer.
“dominated” eh, lol. Good thing Barbashev coughed up that puck to help them out like he’s had a habit of doing the last few weeks.
You say dominated. I say rope-a-dope.
Vegas gives the Oilers the perimeter. They clog the the front of the net on D better than any team in the league. And they have a forward keeping Skinner company, often unhassled, when the puck arrives.
All with no Eichel or Theodore.
High danger chances 18-9 Oilers. Grade A shots 16-7 Oilers.
Those plays might start from the perimeter…
All high danger chances are really not high danger chances, particularly against a team like Vegas. Vegas using takes away the cross seam, and the goaltender usually has plenty of time to react to what is unfolding in front of him because of the collapsed D. Vegas usuallly is challenging or pressuring the shot because the structure usually ha not broken down.
The Oilers really did not give Skinner time on either of the goals against. The shots were not challenged or pressured.
The high danger chances against Vegas tend to be more controlled high danger chances than uncontrolled high danger chances. (Jack Campbell would probably be a fine backup playing for Vegas.)
i.e. All high danger chances are not created equal.
If we could get Clear Sight Analytics we would know. Tracks screens, types of and movement. Also puck movement pre shot which is what you’re talking about. They aren’t all the same to the goalie even if public raw basic stats count them all the same. 2 oranges, both don’t necessarily taste good
I get no love either for talking about it. But many games I don’t feel our chances are that dangerous. Well Connor is always, but sometimes is stubborn on where he’s shooting and doesn’t change it up enough to me
As in how for games they can crush all metrics but don’t score much – goalied? Every time? They will light up teams that give them room and time, and struggle against a trap and collapsed D. They lack natural scorers. Really it’s only Drai and Bouch, and Drai’s sights are currently uncalibrated – see 45 seconds to beat the target shoot at the NHL Fair
They haven’t yet implemented consistent tactics against these D styles, other than ‘get in the paint’ ‘get to the net’ old school talk. Banging around is one way, seems a bit unsophisticated given who is on the team
In a player’s pole they asked who would a player want in a do or die situation. Connor was like 66%, one player mentioned Sid. He said you have to try to keep up to Connor, with Sid you have to worry about the whole team because he will find them
Sid can keep a puck low and move around enough to open coverage. And you also have to worry he’ll take it hard to the net and he’s a load that can roof it back or forehand
Vegas always get a guy to the net beside Skinner behind the D just in time for the puck to arrive. It is damned annoying, and damned good coaching. Their forwards also always seem to skate with the puck to drag a D or forward out of defensive structure, and the Oilers D and forwards almost always take the bait.
Neither of those two things tends to happen against Vegas. Their forwards and D rarely break structure and chase, and forwards rarely are left unattended near their goaltender.
You say rope-a-dope, but I think you mean Homer Simpson boxing with Hill being Homer.
If they upgrade RW then the 2nd line will have a chance when the wonder twins are put together.
Foggy is a 3rd line winger on a contender, not top 6, was a sweet sweet run. Sell high.
The loss is disappointing even more so that it was Vegas.
Turn the page & move on.
Silver lining;
Good measuring stick & reminder of what the level and attention to detail needed to push through.
Definitely highlights the need for a scoring winger.
Last point – Vincent Desharnais keeps finding a new level & I love it
It has been a minute since we watched the Oilers and then a past my bedtime 3rd period …
But Holloway, McLeod and Connor are beginning to look like the same guy as they transport the puck into the offensive zone.
Lack of execution happens from time to time. You need to give yourself enough margin to overcome it, and they didn’t.
The only thing that really annoyed me was you couldn’t feel any fire in the way they played the first period. This team should come out mad and aggressive against the Knights. They were too normal.
That and the shooting low. Way too much shooting low from this team lately. It has cost them goals. Good news is they’ve won anyway. Until last night.
That was one helluva playoff type game. A game in which I’m not accustomed seeing played by this high octane team. Defense wins championships, the players have finally bought in, their playing a tight game and the results have come and will continue to come when it matters. Clap clap on the epic run fellas, that was very entertaining. Get the work boots back on and onto the next game.
Definitely didn’t like Ceci’s or Bouchard’s game.
Skinner was good, Hill was unreal. Hill is probably going to be Canada’s #1 next year.
Foegle has faded back to not being a top six winger the last 4-5 games.
I agree LT, they do need a top 6 RWer, probably a bottom 6 C man if they drop Foegle down . I thought Ryan was the only really good 4th liner last night.
Streak had to end sometime , let’s hope they come out and blow Anaheim right out of the building on Friday.
What could have been a 3 point behind Vegas with 5 in hand turned into a 7 behind Vegas with. 5 in hand.
That was great playoff style game.
Spengler Cup?
lol, that 4 team series.
How about at the 2024 World Championships after the Oilers dispatch the Vegans in the first round?
Be nice for the Oilers to support Team Canada that way instead of the other way.
Foegle has 3G/2A for 5 points in the prior 5 games.
He definitely did NOT have a good game last night.
At the same time, over the course of 3 seasons (including the current), in almost 500 minutes together without McDavid, Foegle/Leon are 60% goals and Leon is 48% goals without Foegele (and without McDavid).
I’ve never thought of Feogele is a legit 2nd liner but he does work for Leon and they outscore, materially, over a big sample.
In fact, they would have last night if Kane would have buried one of his 3-4 legit chances (plus Leon’s chances) – the line worked last night but didn’t score, even with Foegle not having a great night, right?
Not just the last 5 games. How about the last 15? 6-9-15, +10, all but 1 point at 5v5.
He’s one of the guys who has been outperforming his contract. Not sure why folks prefer a more expensive alternative.
Small sample compared to established level of production.
Established level of production was established in the bottom 6.
He’s finally getting a sustained look in the top 6 & has done extremely well with it.
If one wants to go on established levels and more predictive of the rest of the season (than using the season to date), then Walker should not be in the acquisition category at all.
It’s what you are doing now, not last year.
Yes, I’ve mentioned that ALOT last night – during the 16 game streak, Foegele was 2nd in the entire NHL in 5 on 5 points, one point behind the leader.
I used 5 games as a response to the position that “he faded back to not being a top 6 winger during the prior 4-5 games).
He’s actually produced (both by raw points and P/60) as a 1st line winger this season – without McDavid minutes.
Good to be an Oilers fan this morning. It’s the best league in the world. There are going to be challenges.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBM1-DwjA8I
We salute you (or at least the civilian equivalent).
By eye,and fancy math, the Oilers were the better team last night. This is why winning 16 straight is so impressive. A team is going to run into a hot goalie and lose. Happens all the time.
It’s apparent that an upgrade on Ceci is needed. This is NOT an indictment of Ceci as a player, he’s an NHL defenseman, but he’s not a top 4, cup winning NHL defenseman. He’s in over his head. Sell the farm to upgrade his spot and Stanley is within grasp.
It’s also earl returns, but that 3rd line looks to be a handful. Go get Konecny and Walker and they’re cooking.
I couldn’t agree more.
When I say this, the Ceci fanboys rage. They should have been trialing the internal potential option this season, because the cost to upgrade will be huge, and the likely external candidate is not yet apparen.
Ceci is the weak link that can be exploited. (Bouchard also defensively, but one can live with that because of the offense, and one is supposed to cover for Bouchard with a “prime-Parayko-type” as the other right D, not a “Ceci-type”)
The Oilers might win regardless with good fortune.
But this is the weakness that worries me the most.
I don’t consider myself a “Ceci fanboy”, but I do respect him. He’s done nothing but play his ass off for the Oilers for 2.5 years. Can’t remember a time where I questioned his effort.
He’s like that offensive lineman that nobody ever notices until the QB gets sacked, then he’s a bum.
One can play one’s ass off for three seasons, and still be the weak link. Us critics are not questioning his character or effort.
There is no clear option available on the trade market (yet) that is a clear upgrade (except Pesce, but he would be an expensive pure rental). And the Oilers decided not to experiment with the only potential internal option.
Us critics have been pretty realistic about both Ceci, and the complexity of the challenge of improving on him.
So why invoke the term “fanboys”?
The third line was money last night. Perry is a smart cat – his positioning both offensively and defensively stood out to me.
Do you think they need Walker and an upgrade on Ceci?
Walker is 29 years old & played his first 2 career playoff games vs. EDM last season, Third pairing minutes. Other 4 games in the press box.
I like him from what I’ve seen but he is a long way from a guarantee in crunch time.
I agree which was the premise of my post – Sure, adding Walker to the group would be great but I surely wouldn’t feel comfortable moving Ceci off the roster and feeding him Ceci’s job.
It was a good game. Playoff style.
Would love to see McLeod back on Drai’s wing but understand the reasoning. Perhaps this is the critical domino effect – a third line center – either via acquisition or Holloway.
I feel Drai’s game is unlocked when there is another puck carrier on his line. Otherwise, he gets double teamed and relies on 30 ft passes (which often work – but becomes predictable).
For some reason, I have the ultimate faith that Knoblauch will take that game away, and have this team better prepared the next time in terms of how to counter what Vegas is countering with.
I think you hit the nail on the head LT with how Vegas is solving Draisaitl. I also think KK will have noticed that too, and there will be an appropriate response.
Wanted to add, I thought Holloway looked excellent last night, and I enjoyed that 71/55/90 trio a lot. Holloway is lightning quick, and with a bit more man strength, which can only come with time, those rushes will produce more and more scoring chances.
I really thought Perry was going to tie it on that one-timer which was just slightly off the mark.
Give that trio sometime to tune in and I really think the Oilers have something there.
That was a playoff type game last night. Oilers played well, Hill was the best player on the ice. Vegas was missing their best forward and 2nd best Dman.
I liked the line of Holloway, McLeod and Perry. It seemed like the 2 young ones quickness gave the Knights defense fits in trying to get the puck out and all 3 had some good looks on net.
You can give Hill all the credit you want. But it’s obvious the roster lacks finishers. Need a Frankie Vatrano type for bottom 6 and another 20 goal scorer for the top 6
So you agree with me Holland should go all-in at the deadline and find a first-shot scorer on RW for Leon?
I mean if you can get Guentzel of course. If you are paying a first for Monahan then no
100%; there’s always a lot of talk about ‘getting goalied’; but for mine there is a real need for a winger with high end shot.
They could have been playing the guy stuck in Bakersfield with a high end shot all year, and he might have been ready.
I agree. Hill was barely challenged. He played as he should, I didn’t see any saves he shouldn’t have made
You will not beat him if you don’t pick corners. Connor almost scored the one time he did, and then I don’t recall another from him. Although I get up so early I was not awake for a lot of the 3rd after the 2nd goal. It seemed they would have to get lucky to win and it wasn’t looking like it so the brain shut her down
Last year they were shooting high often in the regular season and a many guys scored a lot. They stopped in the Vegas series at least. This year back to under the arm and low blocker, weak 5 hole attempts
The other thing I don’t like is when a guy goes to the net, he’s so close in he can’t make a play. You have to be further out to tip or deflect, get a rebound and have time to do something with it other than stuff it into the pads or crest
Nobody was going to the net with timing to take a pass, Connor was doing laps looking for someone
Hill made several point blank netfront saves. Kane was snakebitten but Hill made quality stops. I agree to lift the puck on him more, but he (and his posts) stole the game, no qualms about that. Stone hit a pipe too but that was when they were down a goal and playing into Vegas’ transition counterattack.
Point blank shots into a over padded plywood sheet are not easy to score on, or often not hard for a goalie like Hill to save. That is exactly what he’s best at saving, doesn’t have to move. On Connor’s goal he looked like he was going to fall over trying to get across. Get him moving
This is the tactic that Vegas plays and the Oilers struggle against. They plug the net front and are willing to get hit with shots. They are close together so get sticks on and in the way without travelling very far
It’s very hard to get pucks across on them as well. They maximize their goalie’s style. There is a reason Vegas’ and the Bruins goalies look so good. The key is to have tactics against what they do, like they said they did to us last playoffs. Just riffing for plays isn’t going to work enough, you have to actively break it down. Connor can’t even do it consistently
Kane did, & got robbed by Hill.
McLeod did, & got robbed by Hague.
Close game. Two good teams. Oilers had their share of quality chances. Missed the net on a few of those, many were deflected or blocked and Hill made some outstanding saves. Very easily could have gone in the Oil’s favour. A loss had to happen eventually though.
Now we get to find out how this group will now deal with a loss. Is it a one off or will there be a let down after such a long run of wins? They are a very good team and I expect to see them rebound back into the win column almost immediately.
This group seems to need a kick in the pants once in a while to get their heads back into the way that you have to play to be a mature contending team. To run with good well coached teams with players that execute
During the start I had commented that it may have been a silver lining that they were so bad. Yes they had injuries, but Vegas has had legions of them and keep rolling. They were without their best forward and best D last night. Injuries are real, but a pale excuse to be horrible
To me it was a reset button. So much hype, too much philosophizing and not executing on the ice, coach and players. Going in ranked most likely to win and dreams of fairy tale outcomes obliterated. This group doesn’t carry that well
So now the awful disappointment of blowing a once in an era opportunity. They have been fading for games, I think KK said limping through games. Last night they played the way that lost them the series. I hope it’s another reset button, and they resolve the issues playing against collapsing organized teams, the stale PP, and beating tall goalies that use the ‘plywood sheet’ technique
And for goodness sake if they get a forward, please get one that can shoot high and hit the net, and can find soft spots to support the puck carrier, like scorers do
You seem pretty harsh on a team that just had a huge heater and lost a tight game to a good team. I guess they should win all their games by 3 goals to satisfy.
The next level for them is winning that key game. It wasn’t a great team game to me. Vegas was smarter and dashed their dreams again. Hill was well protected and just had to stop the ones he should
Breaking: team that won its prior 10 games 3-1, 2-1, 3-2*, 2-1*, 4-2, 4-2, 3-1, 4-1, 3-0, 4-1 needs to learn how to play like a mature contending team.
Yes they had a great streak. The coach seemed to think they weren’t playing their best hockey toward the end and just getting by. Drai commented on winning some games less by team and more by individual efforts. I felt they were slipping into bad habits and luck was starting to play too large a role
Last night the longer the game went on the more I thought they were going to have to get lucky to win. Sloppy, a lot of individual efforts, more high risk plays than they had been making, no answer to being forced to the perimeter. To me that is the game that they had moved up from, for a while
At the end of the day they didn’t play in the way they needed to for a win. They played like in the series they lost. That they won a bunch of close games while massively winning all metrics wasn’t just a sign of game maturity, but that they needed to do some things better, and not squeak wins out of games they should have won handily. The defensive game was there (with elite goalie numbers to help that), the offensive game was mediocre
For me it was sad to see such a streak end with a game that was not their best team effort. An awful lot of players didn’t show up/play well, both teams were in the same boat, one healthier than the other
So I said maturity. It depends what a fan wants. Failing in such a key game, to that opponent, and not having your best is what they have to get past, if a Cup is the goal. A Cup is the only thing now for me. Ever really, but we have to be realistic. It’s realistic now
The team wants it, they need to take a step mentally still it seems. They didn’t play nearly as well as they can as a team. Which is why I imagine Connor trashed his water bottle
This doesn’t seem to be a reflextion of the way the team played in last night’s game.
YMMV. I didn’t see that as a strong game for them
McCurdy pretty much nailed in on the Cult’s post-game, the Vegas sticks were everywhere. Even when it seemed like the Oilers had an open look, a Vegas stick came out of nowhere to deflect or interrupt.
Long ways to go, I know, but as I’ve been saying for a little while now, the Oilers/Knights series seems unofficially locked for the 1st round.
What I’m really looking forward to is Knoblauck in the playoffs and his ability to make in-game adjustments and in-series adjustments. I’m not talking about lines and deployment but nuanced structural adjustments on how they transition through the neutral zone and how they cycle and try and penetrate in the offensive zone.
This coach will find a way through the Vegas defensive structure over the course of a series.
I hope so. It’s either poor or non existent strategies, or players that don’t execute them. I am starting to fear it’s the latter. They have a lot of good players, I am still not convinced of the mix or balance
Prospectilio!
The spotlight shines solely on Nathan Day, who is in the midst of a mediocre campaign.
His last eight games reveal a pattern: W-W-L-L-W-W-L-L. One would assume he’s due for a win tonight, but his Birds of Fire battle the top team in the OHL in the London Knights.
Day-man gets to be a fighter of the Knight-men (oh-ah-ahhhhhhh) when the puck drops @ 5 p.m. Brosseau time.
It’s a little early in the morning to be trolling Declan, but then again maybe he won’t read it until this afternoon.
Haha
What’s that damned Billy Joel song doing in the headline anyway?
Didn’t enjoy the outcome and some of the execution, but man, loved the effort.
Clouder and Hollywood are gonna be a problem for the opposition.
They were the second and third best forwards. Speed is exactly how you disrupt a team that plays like Vegas
Really liked the chemistry on the Speed-Speed-Savvy line. Perry puts himself in good spots & does the same with the puck. McLeod’s confidence with the puck is growing before our eyes. Holloway is still on the learning curve (I thought he needed to be a bit more patient a couple times) but is in a very good spot with these linemates in atop 9 role
Stay healthy boys!