I contemplated all manner of cover photos for today’s edition, including Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, Stuart Skinner, Raphael Lavoie and Xavier Bourgault. In the end, I chose Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for his other-worldly backcheck to stymy Robert Thomas on a clear and possibly game-winning breakaway. It was a good night for Oilers and Condors fans and the team appears to be back in groove.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide and DNB: Who says no? Evaluating 20 of your Edmonton Oilers trade proposals
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers enter spring signing season under pressure
- DNB: Goals aren’t coming for Connor McDavid. He’s helping the Oilers more than ever
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Connor Brown and what’s next in his unusual season
- DNB: Oilers desperate to return to winning ways after dreadful loss to Flames
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top prospect Xavier Bourgault is stalling in the AHL
- New DNB: The Flames are shopping Chris Tanev. Do the Oilers have what it takes to get him?
- Lowetide: How can Brad Holland and Oilers pro scouts impact trade deadline?
- New DNB: Why the Oilers shouldn’t trade Warren Foegele before the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Why this Oilers-Bruins 4-player trade makes sense for both teams
- New DNB: Why a scoring winger should be the Oilers’ top trade deadline priority
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ 5 biggest trade deadlines ever?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 2-2-1)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 6-5-1, 13 points in 12 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 35-20-2, 72 points in 57 games
Edmonton now owns second place in the Pacific Division based on points percentage, and are one point behind the VGK with two games in hand. After beginning the season 2-9-1, Edmonton has raced through the heart of the season at 33-11-1. Kris Knoblauch’s record is 32-11-1. What an incredible season.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner has delivered two impressive games in a row. Since November 24, his five-on-five save percentage (.920) is an exact match for Thatcher Demko and well clear of Logan Thompson.
Evan Bouchard was beyond high event last night, helping high-danger chances at both ends. He picked up another point and is now 15-42-57 in 57 games. His five-on-five goal share (56.5, 61-47) is exceptional and my guess is he receives some Norris votes at the end of the season.
Mattias Ekholm will be the best trade Ken Holland made in Edmonton no matter what he does in the next week leading up to the deadline.
Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci started poorly and then settled in, but Edmonton was in a hole again and that’s a disturbing trend. Since January 1, the pairing is 12-16 (43 percent) and Nurse is 1-3 without Ceci (all numbers five-on-five). Ceci without Nurse is 2-0 goals.
So, as much as Ceci is the identifiable issue for pretty much the entire universe, I would suggest to you that Nurse solo is struggling. Since January 1, he is 4-6 goals with McDavid (87 minutes) and 9-13 without the captain. This is absolutely a rough spot and needs to be fixed, but what if Ceci goes and the second pairing isn’t fixed? I think acquiring Carrier as the No. 7 is a good idea today, but it might be a plan to run Kulak-Carrier in some of those Nurse slots down the stretch.
Vincent Desharnais made a gorgeous last chance Texaco play last night, any forward trying to get past him needs to pack a lunch because it’s going to take all day. Now, he did get beaten, but his defensive length is so ridiculous he was able to do the improbable and get that puck to safety. Helluva play. It’s why I think he will surprise people with his next contract. NHL teams love that kind of wingspan.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is one of my all-time favourite players. He makes smart plays up and down the line in a subtle way. It would be tempting to say his brilliant stealth back check was typical Nuge and in many ways it is, but the more typical Nuge play would be getting that done without many noticing. He’s a sublime talent, as smart a hockey player across 200 feet as we’ve seen from the forward position in Edmonton in many years. Bruce McCurdy said not long ago on the Lowdown that Nuge is even more effective as a 200-foot player as a winger, and that’s a great point. Wingers can be brilliant two-way types and also impact scoring, Jari Kurri was elite at both ends of the ice and in the neutral zone, too. I just love the Nuge’s skill set and am so happy he is having success. I won’t cry when McDavid holds Stanley aloft, nor when Leon or Darnell do, but I’ll probably have a tear or two when Nuge does it. That man has been to hell and back and handled it beautifully. He is a role model for all of us.
Connor McDavid has scored 3.79 pts-60 at five-on-five since January 1, and is 5-20-25 at five-on-five (leading the league) in that time. He also leads the league in total points (46) during that period (in 23 games) and last night he was once again transcendent. What a wonderful talent.
In 23 games since January 1, Leon Draisaitl is 4-11-15 at five-on-five (2.46 pts-60). His five-on-five goal share is 67.7 percent. I keep reading about his poor play but I think much of that comes from the visual, not the actual. in February, a tough month, his five-on-five goal share was 59 percent. His pts-60 at five-on-five is 2.17 for the month. The gap between goal share and expected is there, but it’s always there. The big man is having another impact season. The worst thing you can say about him is that he’s not on pace for 50 goals.
Zach Hyman has 40 goals in 56 games, and is on pace for 58 by the end of the season. Since arriving in Edmonton, he is averaging 40 goals per 82 games and is the best NHL free-agent signing in team history. Back in 2015, we would talk about what name would be placed alongside McDavid’s to represent “Gretzky-to-Kurri” and it’s been a long time coming. Hyman does not have the complete game Kurri delivered, but no one can dispute the breathtaking tandem represented by McDavid-to-Hyman. With McDavid, at five-on-five, Hyman has scored 41-40-81 in 1895 minutes (1.27 goals-60 and 2.56 pts-60). Fantastic run. Goal share five-on-five? 62 percent. Yeah.
BAKERSFIELD BREAKING
Raphael Lavoie had a hat-trick (now at 20 for the season) and Xavier Bourgault scored his first goal in almost a month as the Condors romped last night. Both Lavoie and Seth Griffith had four points and Tyler Tullio also scored. Jack Campbell had a strong game, that’s two good starters after two subpar starts. Carl Berglund had a goal and an assist. A good night for an organization that needs young players pushing.
At noon today we hit the ground running for two hours of the Lowdown, on Sports 1440. Bagged Milk will join us from Oilers Nation and we’ll chat about the Cody Ceci to Dallas trade that went down late yesterday afternoon. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
I can’t understand how this guy’s on-ice numbers can be so good given the team he plays on. Seems like Pisani-lite (shy on scoring):
Jakob Silfverberg
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&playerid=8475164&sit=5v5&stype=2
Seems like a good 3rd line RW for the playoffs. Should be cheap to acquire and get some retentions on. Have to admit I was impressed by Ebs play today – and this is from a guy who was not unhappy to see him leave.
As a final note for a lively evening it’s best that you knock a full ten points off Eastern conference teams now. That entire conference is garbage and they are very clearly on a swoon vs the West.
The Panthers look cool but are the definition of Paper Kitties. NHL analysts need to justify their jobs and standing chasing is low hanging fruit.
The Cats were a better team with Hubby four years ago than they are with Turtle now. Start expecting first round exists with jokers. Americans and Russians are the anti-leadership in hockey. They need a big Strong Canadian or Swede to whip em into shape and who know their way around real Ice instead of the blended chips in a Pina Colada you drink with flip flops on.
Nucks throttled 5-1 by the pissant Kings. The shine off and the plummet is on.
This is it folks, this is what what we’ve been waiting for. It’s as wide open as it’s ever been. They just have to run and grab it.Right now today, this is the best chance they’ve had in 34 years.
Let it fly boys, balls out to the gorddamn wall, it’s yours for the taking. Own the moment.
Holy shit, this is going to be one helluva stretch run.
Soooo if perhaps maybe the current score plays out can we start to contemplate just how fast the Nucks are going to collapse?
The idea of the Tocchet system remains one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard but it takes a while for magical loving folks to come around.
”I only tell my players to shoot when they can score.” Is the greatest kind of snake oil. It’s sexy, it’s advanced and it’s brilliant. Alas… gimme a damn break. What in the actual hell were people thinking when they tried to pump that claptrap? Who doesn’t try to shoot to score? Who thinks they can only shoot to score? Did anyone actually play the fast paced game known as ice hockey before pumping that junk? Lordy the grass is always greener on the other side but holy smokes was that a silly bill of good to attempt to sell folks.
It’s a ridiculous quote, one that those players would have rolled their eyes at.
Yea and it’s almost certainly partly made up by yours truly so let’s call It the distilled wisdom of Nucks bloggers and the chattering Nuckleheads.
But the point remains. You can’t coach a shooting heater. A heater is a heater is a heater and those West Coast losers ain’t man enough to push back when the pressure is on. Pipsqueak daffodils the lot of em, just itching for a chance to wilt and the sun gets higher in the sky everyday.
It starts with making a 5.8 winger mascaraeding as a Dman your captain. It’s something every 18 year old high schooler knows, a whole lotta hype followed 15 seconds later by some seriously sticky. steaming, sardonic sadness.
Just when I thought Conroy could never up Treliving he uncaregoricqlly blows the Tanev deal.
I fully 100% think the maths are BS when it comes to a bandaid like Tanev but oh lordy did Craig get taken to the woodshed.
Im legit worried for our provincial brethren. That fanbase is fickle as shit and they are getting diddly squat as they slowly blow it all up.
Frankly if the Oilers don’t rehire Holland it would be the smartest thing in flames history to ditch all the losers and hire the grinder. He could pull the out of the death spiral.
Nothing about Flames fans make me think they could contemplate nevermind withstand a DoD.
It appears that dmen are going cheap this year. Toronto got Lyubshkin (sp?) with 75% retained in a 3 team deal for just a 3rd and a 6th.
Worried? I’m ecstatic!
I don’t trust Flames fans to see it through and the NHL is a better place with two Alberta teams.
Summarizing!
Day allowed four goals on 31 SOG but picked up the win in a 5-4 decision.
The House of Stone had a team-high 4 SOG but magically avoided the scoresheet in an 8-2 win.
Yes! Vegas loses in regulation. They did not look sharp tonight.
Tried to tell y’all months ago Vegas sucks but it’s easier to pretend the comp is glorious than admit the Oilers are easily the best team in the NHL.
That’s facetious of course but seriously, Vegas has some serious depth issues this year before Stone did his annual disappearing act. I’d expect the comp to hammer the Ginger until the cows come home for the remainder of the year.
Easy pickings with such a porous forward corps.
So, here is the question.
Is this roster today better than last years roster?
How does it measure? How good can it get in at deadline?
Pre-deadline 22-23:
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Janmark-McLeod-Foegele
Kostin-Ryan-Puljujarvi
Holloway-Shore
/
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Barrie
Broberg-Bouchard
Desharnais
/
Skinner/Campbell/Picard
Pre-deadline 23-24:
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele
Janmark-McLeod-Perry
Holloway-Ryan-Brown
Gagner-Hamblin
/
Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak–Desharnais
Broberg
/
Skinner/Picard/Campbell
Essentially the difference year over year is:
Out
Barrie, Yamamoto, Kostin, Puljujarvi, Shore
In
Ekholm, Perry, Brown, Gagner, Hamblin
Definitely possible they could be considerably better by the deadline.
The roster is 100% better than it was at the end of February last year.
No Ekholm, No Bjugstad yet.
Bouchard is much better than he was at this time last year.
Ditto Skinner, Holloway, McLeod & Desharnais.
Nurse will help us win but he still drives me (most of us) crazy with his decision making.
Hyman is literally on fire rn.
Only players regressing are McDavid and Draisaitl.
Kidding 🙂
So Holland will hopefully add a depth Dman & one of Nick Dowd or Adam Henrique.
That would much the Oilers much better than last year IMO
Boston goes up by a goal on Vegas.
literally the worst announcer (Boston) actually spits out words at more than a sentence a minute in his excitement.
Refs give Boston a cheezy penalty with 2:59 left.
Boston hangs on (barely).
No points for the Vegas manipulators
Sounds like Broberg was a full participant in practice and could play this weekend.
Hopefully he keep his damn head up for the rest of the year. Not a slag for the sake of slagging but more a frustrated “bahhh” keep your dam head up boy. There are mean men with ill intentions out and about.
Stone is going to be magically healed for game 1 of the playoffs. Such a corrupt team and league.
His spleen rupture, of unknown grade, but probably grade 3 or less was roughly two month before game one of the playoffs. That’s pretty lucky timing.
Vegas might have him return for game three or so to make it look good.
With all that extra deadline cap, they can afford to spend like drunken sailors.
Imagine if they add Toffoli and Buchnevich with a bit of retention on each.
I don’t want to imagine any of that honestly, I’ve heard Henrique in rumblings as well.
I wouldn’t normally say hijinx’s are at play, but they’re at play. The smell is foul and extremely familiar to pass deadlines and events with Vegas and their cap magic.
Last year, 100%. Stone’s miraculous recovery at the exact moment it suited their cap needs was beyond sketchy.
I don’t know the extent of his current injury, but it unfortunately gives Vegas license to do the same thing this year. The main difference is that he might not be quite ready to return.
Channel your inner Clarke if they want to f**k with the spirit of the rules. No more playing nice.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qRlnqthpTbM
Guentzel.
They always swing for the fences.
Yeah, they’ve been linked to Guentzel and Eberle too.
Vegas sucks, stop pretending they are the tits.
They’re going to add 2 or 3 top 9 forwards, Adin Hill is a mostly goalie.
You’re living in fantasy land.
Who is Adin Hill and why do Oiler fans keep telling everyone else how good he is?
You’re stuck in a loser mindset. Losers always whine about the opposition. Winners go home and shag the prom King and/or Queen (hey it’s 2024 why limit oneself?)
Start thinking like a winner and you won’t worry as much 🫡
Canucks had advaced discussions with Carolina re: trade for Pettersson:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/canucks-pettersson-resume-negotiations-after-trade-talks-with-hurricanes/
Shit or get off the pot Elias.
There would literally be nothing better for an offseason to watch Vancouver blow it all up.
A couple of things…
I have heard it is a thin supply of goalies out there at this time. Also, the Cap hit if we bought out Campbell n the offseason is a total of 6 M for the three years remaining on his deal, plus three more years at 1.5m per. So over the next three years the hit is 2m per year avg, plus the remaining 3 years at 1.5m each. IS there anyone who might bite on Campbell with 2m retained? We would suffer no more than the expected buyout cost in hit for the three years remaining on his deal and save the three years at 1.5 per after that. Is there anyone out there, do you think who might take him at a net 3m per year? If the new team subsequently bought him out in the off season we would have a net share of the buyout hit of 4.2m spread over 6 years instead, or 440K/1.02m/1.4m/600k/600k/600k over the next six years, so also a big improvement. Who would bite on him as a backup for the stretch at that price?
Sound crazy, or is it viable? What do you think?
These numbers are approximate, as I am trying to count big numbers without taking off my shoes to count toes….
I like your attitude. And your use of a twelve digit human abacus. (10 fingers 2 feet) Or did you use 13? Campbell should be called up and used for the two games against Pittsburgh. Give Dubas a look see so Dubas can dream of trading for him again. Here is what the experts were saying back in 202 when Dubas traded for JC the first time. “We talked about Jack Campbell as a good fit for the Leafs tonight on @OverDrive1050. Plus, Clifford provides some jam. Time will tell, but this appears to be great return for Dubas and the Leafs,” Dreger said on Twitter. It can be a great return again.
If I take off my pants I can count to 21. Not suggested in the casino though….
It would be a gamble to say the least.
The goaltending market this summer is historically thin. To illustrate my point, the best available UFA goaltender: Kaapo Kahkonen.
Calgary likely trades Markstrom, and Nashville may trade Soros, and Montreal definitely trades Jake Allen, but otherwise it’s anything but a buyer’s market.
For that reason it is altogether possible that the Oilers can move on from Campbell relatively painlessly given the dearth of options.
Heck I’m not even thinking of this summer yet. I was curious about the market up to the deadline at this point… anyone desperate enough for a 3m goalie they would take Campbell in the next week?
There are several others who may shake loose.
Merzlikens could be available
Carolina is carrying 4 goaltenders.
Detroit has 3 and may want to promote Sebastian Cossa.
And then are always the cheap veterans cut loose in the offseason.
Oilers would still have to pay to get rid of the contract even if they retained $2MM.
I personally think it would still cost a first round pick or Beau Akey at the least but I’m also one that thinks it would cost way more than a single first to get rid of him clean (and other think it would cost less).
I dunno. How desperate is NJ for example? It’s a dogfight for the wildcard spots this year and their goaltending is an achilles heel. If we can sell them on Campbell being good enough lately that he might get them to the dance, do they bite when the other available goalies at this time are not very earth shattering? If he doesn’t work out for them, his buyout is reasonable in dollar terms if not length, and even cheaper if we are retaining 40%… the cost to them in the trade will be very reasonable also if they have other targets this year as well for the deadline.If you can sell vacuum cleaners like Kenny did once upon a time, you can sell almost anything.🤣
This would be so much easier (and entertaining) if Mike Milbury was still active….
I don’t think anyone would take Jack at $3 million, but I was wondering if someone might take him at say $1.5 mln with double retention in a 3 team trade
E.g. Oilers trade Campbell (with $2 mln retained) plus X to team B.
Team B trades Campbell with $1.5 million retained to Team C.
Team C gets Campbell at $1.5 mln x 3 and sends, say, a 5th rounder to team B.
The question then is how much is X? – The price Oilers would need to pay Team B to eat 3 x $1.5 mln (on top of a possible late round pick from Team C).
Or maybe I’m just dreaming that something like this could get done.
Campbell to PHI for Peterson with each team retaining $1.5 to $2 Million. Cap neutral next year but after that the Oil are on the hook for two extra years.
What a backcheck, still marvelling this morning. Was thinking wth is happening with the PP, then the steal, then (on TV) seemingly out of nowhere Nuge is there. Pretty sure I yelled out his name lol.
Nuge is a fav, my Andy Dufresne of the team. So happy for him now playing in these wonderful times, often along side these two greats McDavid and Draisaitl. I’ll be out of my mind delirious when they raise the Cup and I too will likely have tears when Nuge does.
LT Ha just heard your comment that Nuge’s stealth might be from his experience with horses. I like that.
McDavid hands the cup to Leon who hands the cup to Nuge, right?
I think Nuge gets it before Darnell.
Nuge first, no?
Damn right, Nuge first. Longest serving Oiler, good soldier, DoD survivor, etc.
I think it’s a wee bit early to discuss this though. Don’t wanna suffer from premature evaluation.
Don’t worry Tarkus as there are drugs to help with that so go ahead and discuss.
Maybe, but its Drai is his “ride or die” and on his way to the HOF…
Connor > Leon > Nuge > Nurse > Samwise?
Absolutely f**king not. If Hyman isn’t ahead of or right behind Nurse it’s the greatest kick in the nuts this franchise could give to a player.
Samwise will be lucky if he even qualifies for a damn ring nevermind being handed the Cup. Good lord what a distraction of a story this year.
Didn’t the Oilers pay Hyman 10’s of millions?
Imo Hyman is going to ensure several players lift it before he starts worrying about his nuts.
Maybe this has been noted elsewhere (I am not on the Twitter machine, or anywhere besides here anymore), but Bouchard has the highest season points total for an Oilers dman since 1987. Just eclipsed Pronger’s 56 points in 05-06. And there are 25 games left.
Six more points and he cements himself as the highest season points total by a dman not named Paul Coffey in Oilers history.
Just think how much more developed defensively and polished offensively he would be if he hadn’t sat in a motel 6 eating hawkins cheezies for 1-1/2 years.
Or he could have crushed under Edmonton expectations like Justin Schultz was.
Dallas Eakins.
You mean the one season where he didn’t play the full season of games? The season where he played 37 pro hockey games and the same season in which he was asked by the GM if he wanted to head to the AHL and play games or be #7 in the NHL and practice mostly and he made the decision to stay?
Money isn’t everything until a call up from the ECHL catches you with a elbow to the head in the 2nd period of a back to back games against Coachella Valley. Why do you think Broberg wants out he knows he’s good enough for the N.H.L and he’s one dirty A.H.L hit away from working at the same glass factory as Kelfbom.
Broberg doesn’t want out – Broberg wants to play in the NHL and is very happy to do so in Edmonton (from accounts).
I want to see how Lavoie would look when given some time on Draisaitl’s wing and how Broberg would look when given some time paired with Nurse.
Both Nurse and Broberg are left side D.
Broberg has experience playing on the right side though, doesn’t he?
Broberg can’t keep himself from getting injured when playing LD … in the AHL. He’d get murdered playing RD in the NHL on a tough minutes pairing with Nurse. Say what you want about Ceci or Desharnais… but they’re both durable despite playing a physical style of hockey.
I really want to see Broberg get traded for someone who is not a total bandaid.
Do NHL players hit harder or are more dirty in the NHL compared to AHL players or something? Seems like an odd line in the sand.
Also, I thought I saw some stats where Broberg was playing up to 30 mins a game for the Condors. I would think that going from 30 mins in the AHL to 20 mins in the NHL would alone reduce the risk of injury. Unless, as I asked, you have something to support that NHL players are supposed to hit harder than AHL players and play and dirtier game.
Diablo can correct me if I’m wrong but I believe his premise is that, generally, when a d-man plays their offside they are at least a fraction slower moving pucks and making plays – likely get hit more and in more vulnerable positions
Just because he can play RD doesn’t mean he should.
Won’t know until they try though. Could work out or it could not. Worst case scenario, they know Broberg can’t fill the RD gap, best case scenario is he does and the Oilers don’t have to overpay for a RD.
And it’s not like the Oilers are fighting for a playoff spot still and can’t risk experimenting. The only thing they are fighting for is home ice advantage at this point.
I think that they would experiment with him being RD in the American League and make their decisions from what they see there.
He does but how much, and how effective he’s been, has been exaggerated.
He almost never plays the right side in the AHL. He’s been on the left side of a leftie/leftie pairing a ton this season.
Bro has played his off side quite a bit.
But I don’t there’s a big list of modern guys doing it successfully against the toughs.
Brody comes to mind.
Not in North America he hasn’t and, this season, he’s played the left side on a leftie/leftie pairing quite a bit.
Alternatively, trade Lavoie for a proven scorer today. He just scored a hat trick, his value will never be higher! HAHAHA
Welcome to my phone booth.
Honestly, one of the reasons I haven’t posted about it more is because you were already covering it on a near daily basis. I definitely agree with you in Broberg and Lavoie.
I never thought I’d see the day where you and Godot agreed on something.
Godot is a top tier poster and I agree with a lot of his posts, but unfortunately I seem to comment the most when I disagree about something and less when I agree.
There is only 1 poster who I think I disagree with near 100% of the time. And I think it may be easy to guess who that poster is…
That’s right. Lookin at you LT – Pisani wasn’t even that good!
Totally agree, and I think that’s common. Hell, Facebook built a business on encouraging people’s outrage.
(SLAMS DRINK!)
Why do you all hate Smid?
4 point games between rivals are going to make this home stretch very interesting, to say the least. As of this morning:
Vancouver 21 games remaining,including EDM(1) VEG(3), LA (4).
LA 24 games remaining, including VAN(4) EDM (1)
Vegas 23 games remaining, including VAN (3), EDM (1)
Edmonton, 25 games remaining, including VAN(1).
Hold on to your hats!
Possible 3 point games among the division rivals add to the chaos.
On the bright side LA and VEG don’t play each other. At this stage if LA and VEG have 4 games between them, one probably can bet that at least half of the games would go to OT.
So what you are saying is LA and Vegas play 1 game each against Edmonton where Edmonton doesn’t show up to play! 🙂 I like to be more optimistic.
My bad. just spotted that also. We have 1 game each against VAN, VEG and LA. I was reading off the Tankathon strength of remaining schedule list and they didn’t mention the LA and VEG games under the EDM summary line for some reason….
Thanks for posting the schedule stuff. It should be an interesting spring. I like that the Oil should have the opportunity to experiment against some of the tankathon teams. Which means gnashing of teeth for random in-game imperfections for some of us DOD survivors! Followed by miraculous bursts of URGENCY and GETTING BACK TO OUR OUR GAMENESS and astounding third period domination and ultimate victory. Those are the situations and narratives in my head. Damaged. I am damaged.
Prospectalogo!
The healthy OHL contingent suits up tonight.
Nathan Day has had a decent stretch of late, allowing three goals or less in 9 of his last 10 games.
This season hasn’t been screaming hell for Brady Stonehouse either, though he does have three goals in his last three games.
Both lads hit the ice at 5 p.m. Hondo time.
Looks like there’s a new dynamic duo in town, McDavid & Hyman. Leon seems to be getting lost in the shuffle. Can they find a new ringer for Leo?
I feel like now that Tanev is gone, and there is no clear cut, easy upgrade to Ceci available, this is our number one issue. We will only be successful in the playoffs if Drai is killing it on a separate line than McDavid. He is doing fine with Hyman, and Drai doesn’t add a massive amount there. However, he would have a monumental effect on a seperate line.
He doesn’t seem to jive well with Kane, so they need someone to make that second line cook. I think there are way more available possibilities to fill this hole, but no idea if Holland agrees that this is a priority
Buchnevich would an Ekholm level add. Great along the boards, good speed, good size, good shot. Not only would he be a legit top 6 winger, but his ability to PK would send Blackhole Brown to the press box.
Either that of make Buffalo an offer they can’t refuse for Tuch.
To me the issue is that neither Drai or Kane are energetic skaters. I’m not saying they are slow, but need time to get up to speed like a lot of bigger bodies
Foegele has speed but isn’t a good puck handler or carrier. McLeod can transport and is good at gaining the zone
If they get a 3C, McLeod could play with Kane and Drai and get them set up in the O Zone and get the puck to them forechecking. I don’t mind a shooter with Drai to take his set ups, they just need a fast player with enough puck skill to do the dirty work and regain possesion. I don’t think Holloway has had enough experience to do it yet
Drai holds the puck well but gets surrounded often, seems to be the way teams defend him. Then the picked off passes happen. I’m not sure there is a stud winger that works given costs and if they have remaining term
I was on the tank bandwagon, but after seeing some recent play I’m not sure he helps Drai, another now slower big body, he doesn’t seem to have that drive he once did
If the 3C can solidify that line maybe that’s the solution
I don’t disagree with your analysis.
I also don’t disagree that McLeod would be an option to fill this role, just not sure he’s the best one. And, according to a tweet from Woodguy, he is currently winning the goal share on a non-McDavid or Drai line which is invaluable where he is.
I saw his name pop up once before but I think an ideal guys would be someone like Gustav Nyqvist. Skating and forechecking ability of a Yamo (who did pretty well in this spot), but unlike Yamo, can also hit the broad side of a barn with his shot.
Not sure that he shakes loose while Preds still in the race, but if they would retain 50% would have him for this year and next and, I think, would be an excellent complement for Leon.
What would it take to get that done though? Borgault seems like a Trotz time of player?
That would tie up Nashville’s last retained salary spot for both this year and next…..
Hat tip to LT for the Nuge portion of the post today. When I saw that back check I just smiled, shook my head and mumbled “Nuge”. I’m so happy that unless something really really wrong happens, he will most likely play the mot games by an Oiler player ever. We talk about the glory days often here, but Nuge’s play is magic and he’ll finish his career at the top of the list. To hell and back indeed.
Did anyone else see Perry’s slash on the back of Binnington’s legs behind the net in the first? Filthy!
Perry’s ability to do filthy things in a split second when the ref is not paying attention is next level.
If the Oilers had enough depth that they could stash Perry on the 4th line to bring out when required, like Tampa stashed Maroon…
Looks like McDavid is up to speed for his usual ‘more points in the 2nd half’. If he gets it this year he will tie Jagr and Espo for 4 in a row (99 had 7 in a row outright and tied for one which would have been 8).
2023 – 2024: Season
Kucherov is leading with 103 pts in 61 games (1.69 pts/gm) – 138 pt pace
McDavid is 3rd with 94 points in 57 games (1.65 pts/gm) – 135 pt pace
Mackinnon is 2nd with 98 pts in 60 games (1.63 pts/gm) – 134 pt pace
2023 – 2024: Since Jan 1, 2024 (‘What have you done for me lately’ segment)
McDavid: 46 in 23 (2.00 pts/gm) – continuation at this pace would equal 144 pts
Kuch: 42 in 23 (1.83 pts/gm) – continuation at this pace would equal 141 pts
Mack: 40 in 23 (1.74 pts/gm) – continuation at this pace would equal 136 pts
2022 – 2023: Mar 1 – End of Regular Season (What does the past show us segment)
McDavid: 38 in 21 = 1.81 pts/gm
Kuch: 27 in 22 = 1.23 pts/gm
Mack: 40 in 21 = 1.67 pts/gm
Applying last years late pts/gm to the end of this season)
McDavid: 139
Mack: 135
Kuch: 129
Conclusion:
McDavid should win his 4th-in-a-row Art Ross and tie Mario and Gordie for 6 total, only behind 99 with 10.
Full credit to Nuge for the backcheck, but Blues fans had to be tearing their hair out at Thomas’ dithering. I don’t know how he thought he had THAT much time to slow to a crawl and pull out a shootout move.
It was an incredible stick lift and puck steal. Text book. 📖
I worked in sales once upon a time, and when starting out I had a fellow sales rep give me the advice “don’t stick handle your deals, get in and close”, and it was funny seeing that metaphor play out literally in hockey.
Thomas thought Bouchard was chasing him.
Bouchard probably should have been chasing him. But he gave up on the play forcing Nuge to come to the rescue. And thank goodness he did.
That was a very entertaining game last night. Great win
Managing his workload is, of course, highly important. Pickard needs to continue to play more (and, hopefully, does well in his two starts before the deadline so that management doesn’t spend assets to “upgrade” the 2G).
At the same time, with full respect to a guy that know alot more than me like Joaquin Gage, citing fatigue and overplayed and tired every time he has a bad game or slump, isn’t necessarily right.
Prior to the last two games, Skinner struggled since the break and many were citing that he was overplayed – that never rang true to me in the context of his workload since the 10-day break (and I acknowledge aggregate workload on the season). I cited that pretty much all non-elite goalies will have a 2-3 week stretch (at least once or twice a year) where they struggle.
Skinner hasn’t been overly-rested but, now, two excellent games back to back. He was not tired earlier in February, simply the ups and downs of the season.
Now, Picks clearly starts on Sat afternoon, right?
The Oilers are playing better in front of him. Often, when people are ripping the goaltender there’s a general lack of acknowledgement re: the rest of the roster. If you review the early comments on Skinner last night on this blog, he was terrible, should be sent away for 10 cents on the dollar, etc. Same as it ever was. Skinner is a fine goaltender. He needs his teammates to play better. Made some huge stops in that game, and the GA involved Nurse allowing the shooter down broadway, and both defenders out of position and a center late for the dance.
Give Skinner a chance. All this talk of being tired may well be farce, although Mr. Gage played the position and I did not play the position.
People who don’t believe in Stuart Skinner come out whenever there’s a GA. It’s hard to take them seriously.
I’m a big Skinner fan; like the player a lot, love the way he carries himself. And I’m learning to trust him…but I hate to admit that I don’t yet. During the streak, he proved me wrong exactly 16 games in a row, which should go a long way towards buying some blind faith, but there are games where he still makes me nervous. To your point Al, I think that’s a ME problem, because rationally speaking, he’s earned a LOT of leash.
The Vegas series was a hard pill to swallow for a lot of reasons, and unfortunately getting out goalied by the filthy Vegrevillians was a big one…it almost reminds me of a young Bill Ranford starting vs. Winnipeg on the way to Stanley 5. He looked pretty average for the first couple of games of the series and there was a lot of rending of clothing and wringing of hands. And then he turned around and won us a cup. I feel like Skinner is a strong playoff showing away from getting a lot more respect and the belief of the fans.
The Oilers team defense cracked against Vegas, and Woodcroft was schooled by Cassidy. And the Oilers team offense played right into Vegas’s strategy.
It is misguided to put that series loss on Skinner.
Pretty sure I never put the loss on Skinner. Goal was just one part of it…I doubt anyone here would solely blame Skinner.
“pretty much all … goalies have a 2-3 week stretch .. where they struggle”
What if that occurs in the playoffs? What’s the backup plan?
It happened last playoffs, in fact.
The organization (wisely) didn’t trust Campbell enough to give him a start. He was however called upon to play in relief in 4 of the Oilers’ 12 playoff games last season. That’s a lot of hooks for Skinner. Can’t say goaltending won us any playoff games in ’23, and can’t say it didn’t cost us at least one of the games in Rd 2. So what?
Skinner has done a commendable job as a starter, but that it would be wise to have a backup (a 1A) who the organization trusts to start playoff game in the event Skinner has another lapse. Asking one guy for 16 playoff wins is a lot.
Kaapo Kahkonen (pending UFA) at 50% retained fits the bill for me. And if he looks competent could make a good tandem partner to Skinner moving forward.
What has Kahkonen done to be any more trusted than Calvin Pickard?
I would suggest that Jack Campbell would be the goalie that gets the call in the playoffs (presuming he finishes the AHL season similar to how he’s played over the last few months – since his first couple of weeks down there).
Let’s see … Kahkonen is 27 and has 125 NHL GP since the calendar start of 2021. Calvin Pickard has 20 in that time, including 11 this season.
Jack Campbell? If that’s your playoff backup plan in a “Cup or Bust” season then you’re dishonouring the expectations of your players.
Kahkonen has a .901 this season and a .883 last season – I know his team has sucked, and that matters, but how is that a player the organization would trust in the playoffs in a “Cup or Bust” season – a middling tender with zero NHL playoffs games on his resume?
I like Pickard as the serviceable option at the league min cap hit for the season but, if they needed a goalie to replace Skinner in the playoffs and help them win a playoff series, yes, I think Campbell very much could be an option.
This presumes he continues his plus play at the AHL level and comes up fully confidant at season’s end. A confidant Jack Campbell has had success at the NHL level and has had success in the NHL playoffs.
Jack Campbell lost the two playoff series’ where he was the Leafs’ starter.
As an Oiler he’s been utter dogshit. Contemplating him as a goaltender you can rely on in the playoffs is insane.
Jack Campbell had a 1.81 / .934 in a seven game series. He was the only reason that series went near 7 games.
I’m not sure how proposing to rely on a goalie with a career .899 and zero NHL playoff games in the playoffs in any less insane????
What have you done for me lately, Jack?
That was the team in front of Skinner(and on the coach), not Skinner. Skinner’s threshold to hold up despite poor play in front of him is slowing increasing.
It took one start/game this season in Vancouver to irreparably crack Campbell again. LA and/or Vegas would have crushed Campbell if he had started a game.
You and I fundamentally agree: Skinner is a quality starter, and Campbell is absolute trash.
My point, really, concerns Calvin Pickard. I was the first person to advocate for Pickard ahead of Campbell back in October. All I’m saying is that it would be wise to upgrade on Pickard in the event Skinner gets injured, or if Skinner fades or struggles as the playoffs grind on.
The OIlers struggles with team defense since the break. Skinner didn’t struggle as an individual, but only as part of the poor team defense.
The threshold of how bad the Oilers team defense in front of him can be without Skinner’s results degrading because of the bad team defense is slowly rising.
Of course the team defence is a big factor but he was 100% leaky behind them and not coming up with any big saves – he was not helping and a goalie on his game will steal games here and there and keep his team in games they don’t deserve to be in – he didn’t do that for a 3 week stretch, at all.
RNH will lift Stanley. My favourite Oiler. Sublime player… so incredibly smart and gifted. Oiler forever! Vinnie D has been a blessing as well. Nobody expected it, but yet here he is. He will indeed get a nice contract. Love his nasty when you get in front of Skinner or Pickard. Hyman is the definition of role model. I mean..so professional at everything he is and does. And, just when you think he may be slowing a bit, he finds another gear. His family and friends must be so proud of him and all he has accomplished.
Vinny has earned himself a 100% increase with term: 3 X $1.5MM
Hell of a back check by Nuge. Bruce and Staples often talk about those back checks that end with the Oiler busting back but then stops skating for some reason, after he has caught the guy– Nuge kept on skating.
Nuge skated right past Bouch who had quit on the back check
Drais is an exceptional talent. Where he loses the audience from time to time is the high risk plays when there are other options available. There are times he tries plays that are unnecessary in the moment and then has to sprint back in coverage. He could simplify aspects of his game and be more effective IMO. Similar to Malkin in that respect.
I would love to see Lavoie in the Perry role. Old man is struggling at the moment. Lavoie has size, truculence, a shot, and a young motor.
This
This 1000 times.
Last night, he had the engine going and instead of doing the button hook at the top of the circle, followed by a back hand pass that gets picked off 99 times out of 100, he kept his feet moving and was driving to the net, calling his own number to shoot. The Blues defensemen could barely contain him.
That’s the most effective version of Leon Draisaitl.
Perry makes 1-2 good plays per game. He’s also there when the other team needs a tuning. It’s been a while since we had a player who plays with a stick up his butt as much as Corey Perry. If Lavoie could channel that, he would be more effective. As is, right now, he’s pretty vanilla.
If we’re not going to use Lavoie in the NHL he has to at least be increasing his value as a trade piece for a deadline move. I’d also like to see him get a chance down the stretch here, but like I say, if we’re not going to use him then if we can cash him in plus a pick to upgrade the 4C spot or add a decent depth defence piece then I’d be doing it.
Asking Draisaitl to simplify his game to appease your enjoyment is hogwash.
Draisaitl is an exceptional talent that should be permitted to play his game, curtailing that will cause his talents to be severely diminished.
Yes, its all about my enjoyment! Thanks for reading!
Draisaitl is better when he tries to do less. When he tries to be too cute, it often leads to an odd-man rush against. Winning in the NHL is all about sacrifice. All the great players learn to sacrifice offence to play a risk free game in the name of team success.
Get Draisaitl better wingers. Crosby mostly let Malkin have the best wingers. That doesn’t happen in Edmonton. Because of poor cap managment, Draisaitl has mostly had to play with “crap” wingers.
There would be fewer turnover if the OIlers could give him better wingers.
Kane is okay. McLeod has potential to be a good fit for Draisaitl and Kane. They refuse to play Holloway enough for him to cross his adaptation threshold quickly.
You sure about that?
Crosby’s most common linemates:
23-24 Guentzel and Rust
22-23 Guentzel and Rackell
21-22 Guentzel and Rust
20-21 Guentzel and Rust
Malkin’s most common linemates:
23-24 Smith and O’Connor
22-23 Zucker and Rust
21-22 Heinen and Kapanen
20-21 Zucker and Kapanen
The sample size is more than four years. There are 15 other seasons. In Guentzel early days, he actually played more with Malkin.
Crosby is older now. He needs more help. And cap issues have taken away Pittsburgh’s depth.
This is not true, in fact, its a 180.
From 2016-18, Guentzel’s first three seasons, he was Crosby’s most common linemate and he played about 15% of his TOI with Malkin.
The RNH backcheck will go down in the Oiler Kingdom as the best since the unveiling by Wild Bill.
Playoff Simulation, round 1: Oilers lead 2-1
Mark Kastelic could be a good 4 line C with toughness and excellent face-off man? Seems like a player built for playoffs.
https://ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/ottawa-senators/snapshots-ottawa-winger-mark-kastelic-has-a-need-for-speed-and-he-proved-it-sunday
FO% aside, I don’t see it.
Negative rels all down the line.
https://puckiq.com/players/8480355
Horrible GF% every year he’s in the league.
https://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&playerid=8480355&sit=5v5&stype=2
Trade for Carl Berglund, or future considerations, or a 7th round pick two years from now? Sure.
I love Vinnie D. Can’t imagine how hard he is to play against.
His spot in the lineup should be filled by Ceci, however. And 2RD should be some guy like Tanev, only actually available.
So to me, why not look for a 3 way deal involving Vinnie to an EC contender, and a third team out of the race with a 2RD with a year or two of term, plus sweeteners.
Remember when Bouchard couldn’t get spotted into a RHD rotation of NHL games because Bear had that spot locked down.
Remember when Broberg couldn’t get spotted into a LHD rotation of NHL games because Kulak has that spot locked down?
Broberg is currently eating ice cream attending to his bruising.
Broberg still hasnt figured out not to turn his back near the boards with oncoming fire coming in.
This is part of playing games in the NHL, that first playoff for Hughes, VGK chipped the puck into his corner and smashed him into the boards until he gave up. Today that same strategy is not going to work.
While he didn’t play much, Broberg as on the ice of zero goals against in the series against Vegas (1-0 goals) and his not playing more was a major mistake of the prior coaching staff.
This is simply made up.
How can you make this statement when you don’t watch his games?
Evan Bouchard is an elite offensive Dman.
Defensively, it seems like a few times a game, the batteries on the PlayStation remote stop connecting and then the song “Jail Break” by ACDC should be played.
ha. That IS exactly what it looks like sometimes.