I like to look at players in their age 20 season at the AHL level. The elites and even the goods are in the NHL before Christmas 20, and the ones who make it after that may well sputter and burp and thwack as rookie pros. They do show early though, as in the case of Kailer Yamamoto (he was in the NHL and causing havoc by January 2020), Ryan McLeod (he was speeding through the AHL neutral zone with a wild head of steam early days) and Tyler Benson (he was a brilliant playmaker but didn’t skate well; that’s a problem). Today, we look at the current crop and their place in Oilers history.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: What’s the ideal deployment for Edmonton Oilers’ Evander Kane?
- Lowetide and DNB: Who says no? Evaluating 20 of your Edmonton Oilers trade proposals
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers enter spring signing season under pressure
- DNB: Goals aren’t coming for Connor McDavid. He’s helping the Oilers more than ever
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Connor Brown and what’s next in his unusual season
- DNB: Oilers desperate to return to winning ways after dreadful loss to Flames
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top prospect Xavier Bourgault is stalling in the AHL
- New DNB: The Flames are shopping Chris Tanev. Do the Oilers have what it takes to get him?
- Lowetide: How can Brad Holland and Oilers pro scouts impact trade deadline?
- New DNB: Why the Oilers shouldn’t trade Warren Foegele before the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Why this Oilers-Bruins 4-player trade makes sense for both teams
- New DNB: Why a scoring winger should be the Oilers’ top trade deadline priority
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ 5 biggest trade deadlines ever?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
THE TRUTH AT 20, THIS CENTURY
- Michael Henrich 2000-01: 73, 5-10-15 (.21)
- Jani Rita 2001-02: 76, 25-17-42 (.55)
- Jarret Stoll 2002-03: 76, 21-33-54 (.71)
- Kyle Brodziak 2004-05: 56, 6-26-32 (.57)
- Marc Pouliot 2005-06: 65, 15-30-45 (.69)
- Jean Francois Jacques 2005-06: 65, 24-20-44 (.68)
- Zack Stortini 2005-06: 64, 2-8-10 (.16)
- Rob Schremp 2006-07: 69, 17-36-53 (.77)
- Slava Trukhno 2007-08: 64, 14-21-35 (.55)
- Teemu Hartikainen 2010-11: 66, 17-25-42 (.64)
- Phil Cornet 2010-11: 60, 7-16-23 (.38)
- Tyler Pitlick 2011-12: 62, 7-16-23 (.37)
- Curtis Hamilton 2011-12: 41, 5-6-11 (.27)
- Ryan Martindale 2012-13: 41gp, 6-8-14 (.34)
- Travis Ewanyk 2013-14: 68, 7-5-12 (.18)
- Kale Kessy 2013-14: 54, 2-4-6 (.11)
- Bogdan Yakimov 2014-15: 57, 12-16-28 .(49)
- Jujhar Khaira 2014-15: 51gp, 4-6-10 (.20)
- Mitch Moroz 2014-15: 66, 5-4-9 (.14)
- Marco Roy 2015-16: 48, 8-12-20 (.48)
- Greg Chase 2015-16: 19, 1-6-7 (.37)
- Kyle Platzer 2015-16: 48, 6-11-17 (.35)
- Tyler Benson 2018-19: 68, 15-51-66 (.97)
- Kailer Yamamoto 2018-19: 27, 10-8-18 (.67)
- Ryan McLeod 2019-20: 56, 5-18-23 (.41)
- Kirill Maksimov 2019-20: 53, 5-8-13 (.25)
- Raphael Lavoie 2020-21: 19, 5-5-10 (.53)
- Dylan Holloway 2021-22: 33, 8-14-22 (.67)
- Xavier Bourgault 2022-23 62, 13-21-34 (.55)
- Tyler Tullio 2022-23: 63, 13-13-26 (.41)
- Carter Savoie 2022-23: 44, 8-3-11 (.25)
- Jayden Grubbe 2023-24: 44, 7-5-12 (.27)
- Matvey Petrov 2023-24: 33, 5-3-8 (.24)
There’s your list, now let’s slot them into ‘playing style’ groups. A quick note: The categories are my opinions, you may feel differently about individual players, and of course that’s part of the fun. We start with the most important group, the Steve Kelly “speed demon” all-stars.
THE FAST TRAINS
- Dylan Holloway 2021-22: 33, 8-14-22 (.67)
- Kailer Yamamoto 2018-19: 27, 10-8-18 (.67)
- Ryan McLeod 2019-20: 56, 5-18-23 (.41)
- Tyler Pitlick 2011-12: 62, 7-16-23 (.37)
The Oilers rarely draft fast, skilled forwards but when they do good things happen. Tyler Pitlick has played over 400 games and averaged 11 goals per 82 games. Dylan Holloway has six goals in 80 career games, I suspect he’ll average more than Pitlick by the time he’s done. Kailer Yamamoto averages 16 per 82, McLeod averages 12.
A reminder that most every player who spends (say) 50 or more games in the AHL is going to be have to work to make it on an NHL skill line, and chances are that time in the top-six will not be a long period. Yamamoto’s career reflects this well, Pitlick didn’t (that I recall) get any time on the top two lines. McLeod has received playing time, though fleeting, and to my eye has done well. We’ll see about Holloway, I’m not sure he’s going to score enough to land on a skill line for any length of time.
THE TWO-WAY TYPES
- Jarret Stoll 2002-03: 76, 21-33-54 (.71)
- Marc Pouliot 2005-06: 65, 15-30-45 (.69)
- Dylan Holloway 2021-22: 33, 8-14-22 (.67)
- Kyle Brodziak 2004-05: 56, 6-26-32 (.57)
- Marco Roy 2015-16: 48, 8-12-20 (.48)
- Ryan McLeod 2019-20: 56, 5-18-23 (.41)
- Tyler Tullio 2022-23: 63, 13-13-26 (.41)
- Tyler Pitlick 2011-12: 62, 7-16-23 (.37)
- Kyle Platzer 2015-16: 48, 6-11-17 (.35)
This is a highly successful group of players (six of nine enjoyed at least some NHL success). Only Tyler Tullio and Tyler Pitlick are wingers, although Dylan Holloway may fall into that category eventually. This isn’t scientific or anything, but two-way types are good candidates for AHL development. They have things to learn, they need time to develop and the players they are replacing are (mostly) not elites. Lots of churn here, many opportunities.
I tried to remain true to original scouting reports, so some players in the categories below may have developed into two-way types after turning pro.
THE PLAYMAKERS
- Tyler Benson 2018-19: 68, 15-51-66 (.97)
- Rob Schremp 2006-07: 69, 17-36-53 (.77)
- Kailer Yamamoto 2018-19: 27, 10-8-18 (.67)
- Slava Trukhno 2007-08: 64, 14-21-35 (.55)
- Phil Cornet 2010-11: 60, 7-16-23 (.38)
- Greg Chase 2015-16: 19, 1-6-7 (.37)
- Curtis Hamilton 2011-12: 41, 5-6-11 (.27)
- Matvey Petrov 2023-24: 33, 5-3-8 (.24)
This is a category where the truly exceptional ones go right to the show. So, in this century, all of the men listed were trying to get past the kids who graduated as teenagers or at 20. Edmonton had a lot of those, beginning with Ales Hemsky. I think the differences between Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto highlight the difficulty for players who spend extended periods in the AHL.
Benson was fantastic as a rookie, but each game spent in the AHL after (about) 50 represented getting farther from the NHL, not closer. That’s information we can apply to the current group, with the caveat the Ken Holland slow-plays breakfast, let alone prospects.
Transporting the puck through the neutral zone, something Yamamoto (and Ryan McLeod plus Dylan Holloway) could do in the AHL, suggests NHL success. You have to be durable though, and that has been an issue for Yamamaoto.
THE SCORERS/SHOOTERS
- Teemu Hartikainen 2010-11: 66, 17-25-42 (.64)
- Xavier Bourgault 2022-23 62, 13-21-34 (.55)
- Jani Rita 2001-02: 76, 25-17-42 (.55)
- Raphael Lavoie 2020-21: 19, 5-5-10 (.53)
- Bogdan Yakimov 2014-15: 57, 12-16-28 .(49)
- Ryan Martindale 2012-13: 41gp, 6-8-14 (.34)
- Carter Savoie 2022-23: 44, 8-3-11 (.25)
- Kirill Maksimov 2019-20: 53, 5-8-13 (.25)
- Michael Henrich 2000-01: 73, 5-10-15 (.21)
This category is the most interesting currently, due to the presence of three current prospects. Lavoie is most especially defined by this category and his development-trajectory are a central story in Edmonton’s current prospect pool. This list tells us the organization has looked past the minor-league scorers all down the line. Some of that is performance, but I would suggest that in the case of Teemu Hartikainen, Jani Rita and Lavoie, there’s NHL talent there.
THE GRITTY TYPES
- Jean Francois Jacques 2005-06: 65, 24-20-44 (.68)
- Jayden Grubbe 2023-24: 44, 7-5-12 (.27)
- Jujhar Khaira 2014-15: 51gp, 4-6-10 (.20)
- Travis Ewanyk 2013-14: 68, 7-5-12 (.18)
- Zack Stortini 2005-06: 64, 2-8-10 (.16)
- Mitch Moroz 2014-15: 66, 5-4-9 (.14)
- Kale Kessy 2013-14: 54, 2-4-6 (.11)
There are men who made the grade on this list, and only one of them (JFJ) posted strong offensive totals at age 20. A player like Jayden Grubbe could easily run 200 or more NHL games due to his skill set. He’s rugged, goes to the places where goals are scored and is fast enough to keep up. If there’s one thing our little chat this morning should tell us, it’s that Grubbe has better odds to make the show than the scorers or the playmakers because his role is less reliant on gaudy boxcars.
A fun day on the Lowdown, featuring the return of Steve Lansky from unnecessary time off and Tyler Yaremchuk’s wild and crazy trade deadline analysis. We start at noon, Sports 1440, and I love doing this so much. The show is populated by two young and brilliant broadcasters (Declan and Donovan) and they’re a trip. Declan will have Declanations today, stay tuned it’ll make you laugh, make you mad or both! You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/hidden-gems-three-nhl-trade-targets-with-a-standout-strength/
I didn’t know how good Carrier’s boots were.
Damn. I can see why people keep mentioning him now.
Ekholm-Bouchard went 0-2 in 25 minutes versus Eichel, Nurse was 1-4 in 31 minutes and Ceci 1-5 in 35 minutes.
They all struggled, but Nurse-Ceci are in the jailhouse now so that’s the target.
I think Ceci is playing too high, but as I mentioned the other day Nurse is struggling even more. It’s an area of need.
Eichel is going to outscore, he’s very good.
Even with Eichel, the series was tied 2-2 and close until the second period of Game 5.
The penalty to Broberg and then Janmark turned the series.
Max Pax with a dual helper evening.
2 assists 2pim 2sog 3hits 15:58toi.
What a terrible move it would be for the Oilers 🙄
Both even strength assists, something Foegele has only done once this season playing alongside Draisaitl.
Meanwhile Dylan Strome and Sonny world beater Milano are Max’s common linemates.
Stop settling for 3rd line wingers with below average puck skills.
Max 8pts last 10 games.
Foegele 3pts
Wonder what it would take to get Nic Down and Trevor van Riemsdyk out of Washington. Have always liked TvR.
Summarizing!
Mazura returned to the lineup and earned an assist.
Stonehouse also picked up an apple.
Day repelled 29 of 32 SOG in a 7-3 win.
The Vermonters were held soupless and shall have to content themselves with salt packets instead.
Copponi was not in the Merrimack lineup.
Tell me if you’ve heard this before: Savoie out tonight (banged up on Wed).
Pederson is back.
Many remain out including Broberg, Malone, Petrov, Nimeo.
Rodrigue starts.
I wonder if we finish top 4 league-wide a few points behind Vancouver does Coach Kris win the Jack Adams award.
I don’t think he has a chance the way the voting goes
I think defenseman that best fits the description of what the Oilers actually need, at the right age on a decent contract is John Marino.
But I cannot see New Jersey trading him. And I don’t think the Oilers have the assets to offer for him.
(i.e. next year, the Devils can run Hamilton, Marino, and Nemec on the right side, and that is high quality).
I would do Ceci, Kemp, Akey, and the 2014.1st. Doubt New Jersey would.
Lol – I know you meant the 2024 first. But wouldn’t that be savage if a team was fooled into taking a 1st round pick from a decade ago? That being said, our first round pick from 2014 was Leon Draisaitl.
Godot used to write trade proposals like that intentionally.
That would be a horrific trade for the Oilers.
Marino has an 8 team no trade list.
No…I am a terrible editor. My brain autocorrrects, more than the average or median person, I think. It is not on purpose.
Oh, I remember one time, you wrote a trade proposal and I think you included the “Oilers 2013 1st” and I had laughed and asked to clarify that you meant 2023 1st and you said, “no.”
Here’s a question for the statistically inclined who still make pilgrimage to this Mecca of hockey metrics and analysis:
Is there a model you know of that tracks assists in a more insightful way? Not all assists are created equal and there twice as many of them as goals. The easiest method would be to simply discount secondary assists but I I feel like this:
I can only think of a heuristic approach that relies and a qualitative evaluation of assists but be interested to know if anybody is working on a more quantitative model.
If there isn’t, I’d be interested to hear people’s input on what metrics would correlate well to a “meaningful” assist.
That would rely on visual analysis, which can have a fairly large margin error across many observers.
The Cult of Hockey tracks contributions to Grade A scoring chances, which is about as close to what I think you’re asking as you’ll find in the public domain.
I think as a general rule, don’t discount secondary assists.
I’m also not certain goals should be viewed as more valuable than assists. What you want is scoring chances created.
It isn’t actually true that you can put anyone with McDavid or Crosby and they will score, but it is true that certain depth players found success there: Maroon, Kassian, Kunitz (Sheary? Rust?). I would argue that it is a regular occurrence where the players picking up the assists did more to create the goal than the scorer.
I don’t think the playmakers who get far more assists than goals are overhyped, ex. Adam Oats, Henrik Sedin, Joe Thornton, Ryan Getzlaf.
There is another way of looking at this. Add more assists! Everyone who touches the puck before it goes in gets and assist. Uninterrupted/intercepted puck control leading to a goal gets rewarded. A great steal off the D zone wall, a tap to the winger, six strides out of the D zone, across to Drai waiting at the O zone blueline, he ducks down the halfwall, spins and backhand passes to Nuge who fires it down to Hyman who dances around the net and then – faking his circling around – puts it back to Nuge in the slot who fires it home. Everyone wins a prize!
The point I am making is it is always somewhat arbitrary. The initial point of possession in my scenario may the the second most significant contributor to the goal, after the actual shot (or deflection off the skate, arm, ass) into the net.
One player I haven’t looked into is the Joker. Jokiharju.
He’s an RFA.
Thoughts?
If Conroy wouldn’t trade Tanev for a first and Ceci, that basically ends all discussions about acquiring Andersson.
Loved him in his draft year and have followed his career quite closely since. A step above average in terms of skating ability and handles pressure quite well but has no real standout skills. He’s having a great season in the midst of the chaos of BUF but has no track record of success in a shutdown role. Evidence would suggest that Carrier would be a better option in just about every way (apart from contract status).
I like him as a potential offseason target once the team has moved on from Kulak, but I’m not sure that’s where the team will choose to allocate cap space.
Jokiharju gives me Jultz 2.0 vibes. Tall and lanky, contact averse, puck moving/transporting third pair specialist but doesn’t do special teams. RFA, $2.5MM AAV to the end of the season. I don’t see a fit, personally.
He’s sent out against middle more than elites, both a bit over 30%. Generally does well against middle, about even against elites with shot metrics, positive GF% across the board.
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8480035
Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/henri-jokiharju
With Nurse’s cap hit, he’s never going to have d partner like Letang or Hedman.
To my eyes, Jokiharju can skate and make decent outlets.
Jokiharju is under team control and only 24.
I like where you’re going with it, but I don’t see him as a replacement for Ceci. Minimal PK time being one major factor. And he reminds me of Boqvist in that he’s regarded as an area defender with an active stick more than someone who’ll engage physically.
Interesting player but I’m not sure he’s better than Ceci. The issue becomes is it worth it to trade them out for next season?
If Seattle are sellers and he was willing to come back and waive his NTC.
Adam Larsson.
Throw in Eberle for good measure and let’s get the band back together.
If we acquired Larsson, which is improbable, you would have to change the d pairings.
Nurse Larsson would be brutal at outlet passes.
Larsson has had success playing with Vince Dunn who is good in transition.
Nurse Bouch could work in theory, but then you have two guys who aren’t the best at in zone defense. Bouch isn’t really the guy to cover for Nurse skating all over the d zone.
For a nurse pairing, you need a guy who can defend zone entries, defend in zone, and make outlet passes. That’s quite a list considering what Nurse is paid.
You just described Chris Tanev.
Yessir
Nurse is a fine player. A new GM with cap sense and some balls trades him for the cap space and replaces him for 3M less
It’s not that Nurse is bad, you just can’t waste cap and shouldn’t when you have Connor. They need to set up his next 10 years as well as now
If you’re spending 9M plus, you need that type of performance, all the time. Not just sometimes. This is the business part that Gary made
Replace Nurse in the top 4 for 3 million or less… That’s hilarious.
Provorov?
3M less
6M gets a similar quality player. The Pesce won’t get much more
last year Gregor on oilersnation had an article on oilers Dmen passing. Nurse isn’t an elite puck mover but he has been underrated by the fan base in his passing.
Nurse also showed up well in a Sportloqiq passing off the rush data about 3,4 years IIRC.
Larsson is not elite but is a decent passer as well.
Recentky having Barrie and now Bouchard who are elite passers will make everyone else look not as great. But Nurse and Larsson together would be fine.
Those 2 together showed well in the past as our top pairing. That was when the roster up front was less than it is now.
Larsson is still in his prime and is still one of the best Dman at separating man from puck in puck battles in the league. This guy was built for playoff hockey.
I do remember that Gregor article, but I can’t find a link for it, unfortunately.
There were two issues that I recall. One was that it used absolute numbers instead of per minute rates which skewed the advantage to players who play more minutes.
The second issue is that they broke down passes, for pass completion rate between any pass forward in the d zone and then stretch passes. I would have liked to have seen a better definition for the first pass.
Found it and Gregor breaks down the passes three ways. Nurse shows very well in non-stretch pass plays and even there his numbers are fine, over 61% completion rate. his raw numbers have him attempting and completing the most passes of all Oilers so while he won’t have a per 60 as high as specialty guys like Barrie, he’ll be right up there with the Bouch. He also leads the team in controlled zone exits and entries at least for last season when rushing and defending.
https://oilersnation.com/news/amp/edmonton-oilers-d-men-passing-and-shooting
The number of Phantoms people try to tag this player with blows my mind. People are convinced he’s garbage but if he put up let’s say 15 more points (which he’d easily get if he got a modicum of PP1 time) a season they’d call him the Alberta Hedman.
But let’s all go ahead and salivate over a bandaid like Tanev who misses more games in half a season than Darnell has missed in the last five seasons.
Nurse has struggled the last couple of seasons with many things he once was good at particularly retrievals
NHL SID has had several things up and he uses stats Sjnader’s tracking and tracks himself. Nurse is a good defenceman but has many limitations that 9M D shouldn’t have. The contract isn’t his fault, he’s a good player, it’s about the cap
If liking guys and players being pals matters more than the point of it all fine. For me cap efficiency and consistent improvement matters more
The biggest disappointment in Oiler hockey for me would be not maximizing Connor, we are so ridiculously lucky to have landed him, for him, and for us fans
Thanks.
As I said, I didn’t like this definition. That leaves a lot of room for interpretation. A lot of d who aren’t considered great puck movers, typically make shorter passes or they rely on their d partner when under the pressure of a forecheck.
Like when Nurse played with Bear, he would always pass the puck to Bear when under pressure, so Bear was left trying to make passes under more difficult circumstances.
I seem to recall Nurse Larson working well together and the go pairing protecting a lead late in games.
Time heals, people change their minds.
In the past three seasons in which Larson was an Oiler, they played 425 minutes together. In their most recent season, they played 88 minutes together with a 33% goal share.
GF%= 36.1
xGF% = 44.9
FF % = 46.3
Anyways, that’s my bias. I liked a lot of things about how Nurse looked with someone who could outlet the puck like Bear. Bear was just too slow.
Nurse needs someone who can make outlets like Bear, but they have to have better boots than Bear did.
I think Nurse would look like a different player if he had a d parter who could skate and make better outlets than himself. They wouldn’t have to be huge.
As noted, Nurse-Larsson were excellent the one year they played regularly together as the Oilers 1st pair. They played together almost twice as much that one season than they did in the subsequent three years you’re citing.
For their entire Oilers careers together (1300+ minutes) on ice numbers were:
50%SF, 51%GF, 50%xGF. 50%SCF, 49%HDCF, 46%OZstarts
On ice results without them as a pair (includes each with someone else) were:
49%SF, 49%GF, 49%xGF. 49%SCF, 49%HDCF, 51%OZstarts
And results with both of them off were:
49%SF, 48%GF, 49%xGF. 48%SCF, 48%HDCF, 53%OZstarts
Each of Nurse and Larsson had worse results without the other. And FWIW, the large majority of Larsson’s minutes in other years were with Klefbom, while Nurse played the most with Gryba, Larsson, Russell, Bear, Barrie, by year.
I won’t claim that Nurse couldn’t be better with a ‘puck mover’ who could also defend, but I’m not seeing the argument that he needs to play with a puck mover.
And I definitely don’t see how the relative success of the Nurse-Larsson pairing adds anything to that position.
Are you talking about the 2017 season? That was six years ago, mate. Their results were buoyed by playing with 97. They were somewhat underwater away from him.
So we’re sort of in agreement here?
We’re literally discussing adding Adam Larsson, himself. Per the last three years data with Nurse, I don’t think he would be a good fit to play with Nurse. Do you disagree?
And you’re talking about 3-5 yrs ago 🤷.
They played 35% of their time in 17-18 with McDavid so they were not getting a Bouchard push or anything unusual.
In their whole time as a pair they were better together than apart, and the team was better with them on than off.
This is describing a better all around defenseman more than a different style of defenseman.
Yes, I think Larsson, if willing, would be a strong add and more of an upgrade than anyone who’s expected to be available.
I do not think the Nurse-Larsson pairing history argues Larsson isn’t the right fit.
Losing Larsson was almost as bad as losing Klefbom. Loved him as a player for the Oilers.
The question I posed yesterday was “Do you think the Oilers roster is better today than it was last year?”
Im still interested in opinions because determining this really tells us just how much needs to be spent at the deadline.
The Oilers are all-in no matter what any of us think. It’s go time. They’re the Mandelbaums.
Holland has been working towards this moment for five seasons. I would be shocked if he hasn’t got every asset he can muster available for the right deal.
I think last years team was good enough to win, I think next year’s team will be too.
This is the window.
Second period of Game 5 and second period of Game 6, that was the difference between Stanley and going home.
https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/1763006595967979737
Holland had such success with Ekholm last year I suspect he will want to repeat it. That is, his main targets are not expiring RFA’s.
His MO will remain the same. He will pay more but wants some contract left if paying a first.
Thus it’s most likely his target is sitting on a borderline seller right now, waiting.
This is the most fascinating thing about this trade deadline.
It is almost certainly Kenny’s last dance…win or lose the Cup, Jackson will bring in his own man when Hollands contract expires.
So does Kenny still care about the future here? Or does he sell the farm for whatever he thinks will let him go out a winner, regardless of future consequences?
The only thing holding him back from doing whatever he wants is:
Does anyone know exact cap amount available without moving any players out?
$2,034,087 today and $2,373,102 on Friday (if no roster changes).
I wouldn’t say it’s over reach having final say. It’s his job and Holland hasn’t exactly earned it with Campbell and Brown. Two major whiffs with 9M in consequences to the cap, out looking for exactly that help
Sorry didn’t mean that Jackson was being inappropriate. Oversight is a better
word than over reach.
No worries !
There is nothing to indicate that Holland is anything but a man of integrity and I don’t see him making riskier deals because he won’t be around in the future. I don’t see him making any deal that he wouldn’t’ make if he had 2-3 years left.
Agree with OP. Holland has been nothing but professional as GM of the team …he’s not going to pull a Chia on the way out.
But LT is right … everything that the Oilers have been building towards is culminating in this season and the next. The target will be a player who will be here for at least 2 playoff runs. They don’t have time to develop prospects, so this year and next year’s first round picks, and any prospect that is not playing a major role on the roster will be used to bolster the club’s chances to win Stanley. That means that both Broberg and Holloway will be dangled as trade bait.
Our likely first round opponent Vegas suddenly having 9.5 million to spend is going to be a problem. But Vegas likely goes after players whose contracts expire after this season. So Holland is not necessarily shopping for the same things that they are.
But Holland knows that he has to materially bolster the club this trade deadline, or the Oilers are not getting out of the first round.
Eric Francis
@EricFrancis
Fascinating shot sent by Jacob Markstrom when I asked if he had parked all trade talk and was resigned to being here past Mar 8:
“Everyone in here I really respect everything that’s been going on, and not going on, and how everyone in this room has handled everything. I think it’s been really good. And then the whole situation and everything, am I happy about that? No I’m not. I think it could have been handled a lot different from up top.”
And so concludes the opening episode of “Decade of Darkness: Southern Exposure” …I know I won’t miss an episode.
Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
·
1h
Skinner will start in Seattle tomorrow.
Pickard will face Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Knoblauch says many factors go into it including practice reps and how well guys are playing. Has really like Skinner’s game the past two wins and that’s why he is going tomorrow.
It’s too bad the Oilers are short of cap room. It would have been an ideal opportunity to call up Rodrigue to be the back up Saturday and let Sunday’s starting goalie stay home and rest.
They could – calling up Rodrigue for the day would cost about $4K in cap space for the season.
I think they want Rodrigue playing in one of the Condors’ back to backs this weekend (and 3 in 4).
Pacioretty, Max.
Don’t be surprised.
Are his feet still attached?
No, he skates on his knees.
Thanks for coming.
He blows up Achilles like Krusty blows up Bart’s balloons
and his 3 goals…..?
3 goals and 10 assists in 23 games. 46 point pace over a full season. That’s not to be sniffed at.
Max
2g 4a in Last 10
4 games of 0-0
13-14mins a night
500k remaining cap hit
Warren
2g 1a in Last 10
8 games of 0-0
12-18mins a night
688k remaining cap hit
More for less, with a much higher ceiling.
People are going to say, but Max got points on the powerplay..
Yes because he actually has puck talent.
4pts on Washington’s second powerplay unit in the last 10.
Do you know how many points Warren Foegele has on the powerplay in his career…yes that’s right! 4!!!
Adding puck talent to the squad for cheap should be something the Oilers are all over.
2 of those points (no goals) at 5 on 5.
He has 6 points at even strength on the season.
I don’t think his PP production is going to benefit the Oilers…..
Yea, all of Washington is struggling.
Please show me where Foegele, Mcleod, or anyone in the bottom 6 has ever produced other then ancient Perry like Max has.
You can’t, because it doesn’t exist.
He’s talented, puts points up with talent, will be a cheap acquisition.
Why would the Oilers ever want that?
You don’t think he’d up his game to stick it to Vegas? Or be extremely excited to roll with the several centers Edmonton has to offer?
Good grief.
I’ve posted Foegele’s 5 on 5 production, for this season, for the last 82 games, for the last 2 seasons and for the last 3 seasons.
Max has not put up point this season except on the PP.
Max has 6 even strength points this season.
Please stop with your condescending “good grief”.
He’s coming back from injury and has added 2 more even strength points this evening.
Max puts up points on Washington’s 2nd pp unit.
Why doesn’t Foegele do that for the Oilers?
One is a puck talent, one is a energy player.
Buffalo is holding RHD Erik Johnson out of the lineup as they explore a trade.
$3.25 million expiring contract.
Averaging 13:48 per game on a very meh Buffalo. -5 which I guess isn’t horrific, but still. No thank you. Vinny has more to give at this point.
Just no. Ask Sabres fan what they think of EJ.
Personally, I can’t wait until the deadline has passed.
I do enjoy talking/discussing trades but it seems like it been full on deadline talk since like December, doesn’t it?
For me, I’m starting to hope that the Oilers can make some adds to the lineup as opposed to upgrades. By that I mean adding a few players without subtracting anyone material (Kulak, Foegele or Ceci).
I know that likely means that they would be out on guys like Pavel B. and Jake G and I don’t see a realistic top 4 RD upgrade that is legit better than Ceci.
I think a mix of McLeod, Foegele and Holloway can fill that 6F spot to the extent they’ve added to the bottom six.
For me, I’m OK with the likes of Carrier and Dowd if they don’t give up a roster player of significance. They could get the AAVs down on those two to fit them in fairly easily.
Novac as opposed to Dowd is another option (and the Preds may move him even if they aren’t selling, per Friedman).
The main issue is that the Preds are on a 7-game heater and may not sell
Vinny/Broberg become the depth D and that’s actually pretty good.
Brown/Ryan/Janmark become 13F.
I’d really like to see an actual top 6 winger alongside Draisaitl instead of a rotation of 3rd line players.
Aim higher.
The Oilers will need to subtract a salary in order to add a big salary. They also have Broberg ready to take Kulak’s place, thereby freeing additional salary cap space.
Upgrading the D, or adding a bona fide top-6 winger will require cap space, and NO the Oilers can’t afford to go into these playoffs without bolstering their lineup in a meaningful way.
Bro has the game, but betting on him staying healthy is not a smart one given the goal
Full time next season
That’s not wrong but the discussion is upgrading (player out for player in) is better than adding – adding to the current roster, without removing.
I’m getting to the point where I like the lineup with a couple of additions that would push some players out and make it deeper – as per my post.
The idea of bolstering in a meaningful way, which include Kulak out for Broberg, is bolstering in one area and taking away in another while creating risk (i.e cratering d-depth).
going to the make-up Gulls-Condors game on Monday
Will update y’all on Bro, Lavoie, Savoie, and Borg.
clap clap clap
Please do and thanks!
Jeff Marek speculating that Washington could go into sell mode if they lose to the Flyers tonight.
Washington doesn’t have a first or second round pick so may be willing to make some big deals.
John Carlson, with double retention, would come in at only $2 million cap hit with 2 years remaining on his contract.
He does have a 10 team no trade list.
I’d have time for Mantha if the cost is within reason (not a 1st).
Marek saying he would be a the top of the list to move.
Double retention on term would be very expensive.
How many examples are there of third party brokers taking on dead cap for future seasons, as opposed to just unused cap space in the current season &, in terms of real $$, a fraction of one year’s salary? Seems to me most 3-team deals involve expiring contracts.
There is a recent example revolving around the Erik Karlsson trade to Pittsburgh.
Jeff Petry (cap hit $6.25 million) was double retained in a trade from Pittsburgh through Montreal to Detroit with his cap hit now $2.343 million.
Pittgsburgh retained 25% while Montreal retained 50% of the remainder.
Montreal got a 4th round pick and a B prospect from Detroit and a 2nd round pick plus flotsam from Pittsburgh for their troubles. Casey DeSmith was part of the return and he was flipped to Vancouver for a 3rd round pick and Tanner Pearson.
So, Montreal ended up with 3 picks and a couple of depth players for their trouble.
Montreal also dumped Hoffman in the transaction(s), so the Petry part of the trade was essentially cap neutral for them.
They sort of got a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, Pearson and a couple of B/C prospects for Rem Pitlick.
Petry’s Cap/salary was over 2 yrs vs. 1 for Hoffman, but their ‘troubles’ were really very minor.
Not a very good example of payment for retained salary over multiple seasons, and Montreal overall did quite well with these transactions.
If this deal were on the table, would you do it?
Ceci & ’25 1st for Carrier (50% retained) & ’24 4th
Opens up cap space for another move or to absorb more of Brown’s bonus overage while also adding a great fit for the the blueline and keeping the ’24 1st- whether for another trade or for use at the draft.
For me, the value is off there.
I don’t think Carrier is a locked in upgrade on Ceci and, yes, I’ve seen his TOI vs. elites and all that.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d certainly like to add him to the group but not with Ceci going the other way.
I’d love to try him with Nurse and see if it works but its not a guarantee to work any better than Ceci – that would be fine too as I think he is a locked in upgrade on Vinny and, at the least, it would create great depth on the blue.
Ceci with one year left on a solid AAV has value – I would certainly not go 1st round pick for a rental, even if the salary gets cut down – let along adding Ceci.
Very interesting read – thank you.
My first instinct was some surprise that Petrov was in the playmaking category as opposed to the shooting category. Truth be told, he may be trending more towards two-way (his 2-way game is more advanced than anticipated and his offence, well….).
My hope is that Grubbe shifts to the 2-way category – he has a nose for the net and some finish.
I’m sure there are many that could be moved, but Petrov had two seasons of 50+ assists in junior. In his final playoff spring, he scored four goals and 18 assists in 20 games.
I’m comfortable with my decision.
David Pagnotta from the fourth period: Edmonton’s 2024 1st round pick is in play, and I’m told they’ve discussed packaging it with a roster player to another club for a defenceman to upgrade their blueline. No decision yet.
Wonder who that D man is? Holland said he wouldn’t trade a 1st w/o the player having term. So is he going after someone with a year or 2 left or is he just going to grab a UFA. Like Carriere or a Walker
Oops Carrier
Lebrun said yesterday he thinks the Oilers offered their 1st + Ceci to the Flames for Tanev, as one possible example.
If this is what the Oilers offered and Conroy took the Dallas deal he’s an idiot and should be fired.
Yeah considering Conroy would get at least another 3rd round pick at next year’s deadline and probably has a lot of use for a nhl caliber vet RHD for at least start of next season…inneficient deal influenced by essentially homerism type decision…
How do you die of 1000 paper cuts?
1 papercut at a time
What do you think the chances are the Oilers retain the 2024 first rounder? I’ve gotta think it’s almost nil.
Ceci and the number 1 has real value. Way more than what Dallas paid for Tanev so I think Lebrun is talking out of his hat. You won’t find a guy paid like Ceci who eats those kind of minutes and does okay. The problem isn’t Ceci – it’s his deployment – which is too difficult. Wonder who the target is? Guys like Walker and Carrier aren’t worth a 1st.
Would Larsson come back to play with Ekholm on a shutdown pair?
Conroy is a gamer and has a Flames tattoo on both cheeks. No way is he dealing with the Oilers unless it’s a extreme overpayment
Why would anyone break up the best pairing in the NHL?
Why in the hell would the Oilers want to ever bring someone back that took his ball and left?
Apparently people want to break up the best pairing 🤣🤣🤣 doomed.
On point 2 – to win a Stanley Cup!
Prospectrocity!
Mail-It-In Friday!
Shane is the only NA amateur with Lachance* to rest tonight. All the others shall toil @ 5 p.m. Hines Creek time.
*This pun will never get old. Never!**
**Well, maybe.
I think you are missing a group to sort by playing style — The Oft-Injured: Whatever playing style made them sucessful, they can’t play it because they are constantly recovering from injury.
It must have been hard writing those lists and not talking about MP.
He’s enjoyed a fine career in Europe, saw 192 games and that’s a good run. I always cheer for these young players, and for MP it wasn’t a life in North America playing hockey but I suspect he has enjoyed the last two decades all the same.
It’s not fighting for Stanley, but in the end, who would not love getting paid to play a game. I’ve been to a hockey game in Germany, and there is a fervour during the game that is unlike anything I’ve seen in Canada.
Broberg practiced fully yesterday and there is reason to think he’ll play this weekend and this commentator likes that. He could be on the Oilers roster at any minute (i.e. any injury) but, also, the games are just so much more enjoyable to watch when he’s in them – dominating at both ends.
He could also be traded at any minute.
Oh, my goodness. That’s what I was going to say. But so could Kulak or Ceci for that matter.
I have no doubt that this is being considered.
Sure, that is true.
At the same time, we know Holland values this player/prospect and we know Holland is highly unlikely to trade him for a rental unless its a legit high end rental. If Broberg does get traded, and I would be surprised, I think a fairly exciting player would be coming to the Oilers roster.
If the Oilers had given Broberg NHL time this season he would be far more valuable as a trade asset than he is today. The Oilers could learn a lot from Sam Pollock.
I don’t disagree but I also don’t think that Holland will include him in a trade for anything less than his personal assigned value.
If they aren’t considering a trade then pumping up his trade value wouldn’t really be a consideration, would it?
That Nuge back check on Thomas was breathtaking and immediately reminded me of the great Pavel Datsyuk. My goodness.
I listened to the lads on cult of hockey podcast yesterday, and while I found myself agreeing with their points on Ceci’s struggles, it’s always some generic puck-moving RHD upgrade that’s proposed. With all due respect to Bruce and David (who I really enjoy listening to) a reasonable solution needs to be put forward at some point.
I think we all pretty much agree that 2RD needs to be addressed, but as far as I can see, the only realistic outside solution just took a plane to Texas. If a new player isn’t available, then what else can be done? Deployment? This has to be fixed by G1 of the playoffs.
Alex Carrier. Big minutes, successful minutes, versus elites.
https://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20232024&tier=Elite&positions=d&team=nsh&group_by=player_season_team&sort=ctoipct&sort_direction=desc
This is my #1 target on D as well. Even though Ekholm can provide some in depth knowledge for the pro scouts, I fear his lack of size may impact Kenny’s desire to trade for him, even if it shouldn’t.
He’s a bit small for my taste and riding a smoking hot SV% (.945) in the elite numbers you showed. But that said, it’s one of the better ideas out there. Not sure NAS wants to deal with us again since they look safely in a playoff spot and we took them to the cleaners last year. You can rarely go wrong trading with NAS for a dman or NYR for a goalie.
I agree size can certainly be a factor especially on D and during the playoffs but it is his transition game, most notably controlled zone exits, that have me thinking he could fit very well with Nurse specifically.
Worth pointing out that the Oilers’ existing d-corps is massive. Kulak is the smallest, listed at 6’2 192. Everyone else is between 6’3 and 6’7. There’s room to add one smaller guy imo.
He might become known as the nurse carrier.
Mario Ferraro would be my #1 target. But again at what price
I do get why carrier a better fit, but I think Ferraro is a better D overall
Rumours have it offers are limited to 2nd or 3rd round picks.
It may not come to pass but I’ve been throwing this out (Carrier) for a couple weeks. Ekholm did a very nice job mentoring him. He’s faster than Ceci and you could put him up with Nurse or Bouch up w/Nurse and your top 4 is now solid.
I would like to add Carrier to the existing group, without removing Ceci.
An addition, as opposed to an upgrade.
We can see if Carrier is a better fit for Nurse in those minutes or if he plays with Kulak.
Either way, it pushes Vinny out of the lineup and creates depth.
Nashville appears to be locked into a wildcard spot and I can’t imagine they want to move on from Carrier.
They do have an extra RD who is often a healthy scratch…Tyson Barrie.
Here is my choice…..what a player. A guy can dream I guess.
https://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20232024&tier=Elite&positions=d&team=car&group_by=player_season_team&sort=ctoipct&sort_direction=desc
I saw online yesterday, not sure if it was a verified source so big grain of salt warning, that the leaked offer from the Canes to Nucks for Petersson was Pesce, Necas and a 1st. That would be tough to pass up, although rumors of Pesce wanting to sign an extension in the US only certainly changes things if that was the offer.
The offer I saw was Kotkaniemi, Necas, and a 1st.
You’d think if Pesce was part of the deal it would have to be pending a sign and trade at a value that works for him and VAN.
Would be perfect but I haven’t seen much speculation that Carolina wants to move him.
Inquiring minds want to know….when is the last time Bruce was called a “lad”?
The word hadn’t been coined yet back when I actually was one.
You’re a fine lad none the less.
Unless it’s a bigger trade with roster players going out, with Tanev gone it’s hard to see a pending UFA D who’s available (Carrier, Pesce, Walker all on playoff teams) and is a notable upgrade over Ceci.
Kenny & co. are looking at the same rosters as the somewhat enlightened LT Posse who can’t see that player. So what to do? Overpay Nash and Philly to get their guys? Or do the Oilers check down to a depth D add (eg. Bogosian) and stack the forward corps by adding Dowd and a Tank/Mantha/Zucker?
This could be Holland’s last hurrah. I expect him to go big.
To paraphrase old Dutch hisself, he tends to determine a specific target player and lock on until the deal s done. not bounce from one alternative to another. I expect he is digging deep to get who he has already identified as his main target dam the torpedoes style