I wrote the passage above one year ago, before Game 4 of the 2023 playoffs against the Los Angeles Kings. In life, there’s always a quote from a smart person about what you’re going through and Al Arbour is a smart person. Game 3 should be repeatable for the Oilers and if they fly home up 3-1 in the series, consider it Stanley Cup battle joined.
OUT OF THE BLUE
Three games in to the playoffs and the coaching staff is rolling three pairings fairly evenly at five-on-five. The difference between the top minutes defender in the discipline (Darnell Nurse) and the last defenseman (Vincent Desharnais) is about three minutes per game. That’s one extra shift a period for Nurse. The defense is not yet challenged to the point where Kris Knoblauch needs to ask for more playing time from his top sets. There is some interesting math in the goal share by pairing at five-on-five.
Nurse-Ceci 46 minutes; 2-3 goals; 50 percent expected goals. Nurse is 1-0 away from Ceci in five minutes, Ceci 0-1 away from Nurse in three minutes. The Oilers are 6-6 without Nurse-Ceci. Nurse has played 15 minutes versus the Anze Kopitar line, 1-1 goals with Los Angeles having the edge (12-9) in shots and in (15-11) Fenwick. Riding with Draisaitl, Nurse is 2-1 goals five-on-five but 9-18 shots.
Ekholm-Bouchard are 4-3 goals in 43 minutes, but 64 percent expected goals. That should regress but in a short series things can happen. The Oilers are 4-5 without this tandem, Ekholm 1-1 w/o Bouchard and Bouchard 1-0 without Ekholm. In 33 minutes with McDavid, Bouchard is 23-14 shots, 4-2 goals and 76 percent expected goals. In a game the Oilers are behind, expect the fabulous five (McDavid line, Bouchard pairing) to work double time and a half until the score is even or better.
Kulak-Desharnais are 2-2 in 38 minutes. Sweet Jesus Oilers teams over the last 15 years would have killed for a third pairing who could play this much and not get buried five-on-five. Oilers are 7-7 without the pairing, Desharnais is 0-1 without Kulak and Kulak is a straight arrow. Kulak is 14:48 versus the PLD line, 7-4 shots, no goals and a 60 percent goal share. That’s rock solid.
Stuart Skinner has an .890 save percentage, that’s No. 9 among goalies with more than one game played this spring in the postseason.. If Edmonton plays as smartly as we saw in Game 3, Skinner’s SP will rise. People rail against Bob Green for the Reinhart trade (you kids out there always credit and blame the general manager on trades, accept no substitute) but I believe Green was integral in getting Skinner and give full credit where due.
CONDORS
Bakersfield lost last night, Ontario Reign have too much and Bakersfield doesn’t have enough players firing. Olivier Rodrigue is playing well, I hope he gets some NHL time next season. Philip Broberg is an NHL player, not sure if he’s a trade piece or makes the grade with Edmonton but he should be in the NHL next year. I always cheer for Oilers kids have since Mike Toal. I don’t recall a time when the guys who have the draft pedigree look like they’re AHL contracts. We are here.
Bet on Broberg, Rodrigue, Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe and you’ll be more right than wrong. Pretty sure.
I thought the Oilers played near mistake free team D. It was impressive. The Oilers typically make a few big mistakes in that type of game.
The Oilers forecheck was abysmal. They looked slow getting to pucks. Need to get that sorted for game 5.
NST:
Scoring Chances: 19-11 Kings
High Danger Scoring Chances: 14-4 Kings
Expected Goals: 3.03-1.01 Kings
That looked to me like a game we deserved to lose.
You gotta be lucky to be good…and good to be lucky.
It’s been a long, long time since we’ve good enough to be lucky.
This sure beats the DoD.
The Kings definitely had control of the puck for most of the game, no question. But to suggest that Skinner was in a shooting gallery and that the Oilers snuck by with luck and a hot goalie just isn’t accurate.
I review NST after each game as well, but those numbers don’t reflect what happened on the ice. The Kings sent a lot of muffins towards the net praying for rain and deflections, and the Oilers limited the quality of chances to screens and a few deflections.
Skinner was great but the Kings didn’t have any open looks. The Oilers played a great shut down game.
On Feb 14, 2022, My son was born….Norris Stanley Blank… (I’m not going to divulge my last name but it’s an equally good hockey name)
My wife gave birth to him in the living room. Covid scared her out of the hospital and into a home birth…there was a bit of medical drama but by the time the puck dropped in the Oiler vs Sharks game that evening everyone was safe and sound. The midwives had left, the grandparents with Norris’ older sisters had come and gone, mom was upstairs sleeping, I had disposed of the birth pool and afterbirth, the blood soaked towels were in the Wash.
I had resigned myself to the fact that Martial law was imposed in Canada that afternoon….Nothing could phase me…
I spent the next few hours slowly swaggering around the living room rocking my son in my arms watching Stuart Skinner get his first NHL shutout….the wife got a solid 4 hours of rest before he got too hungry and his cries summoned her from upstairs.
For the next 26 months I would proceed to try to imprint the ballet of Hockey onto Norris….he has a mini-stick that he whacks around…he can say “Hockey”…but I could never get him to sit on the couch with me and actually watch the sport.
Tonight, a few minutes after puck dropped, I was laying on the couch in complete dereliction of bed-time duty for the 3 kids…my boy strolls over to me with his full bubba, climbs onto the couch, crawls over me and nests himself in between me and the back cushions….he says “Watch Hockey unhhhh” and proceeds to lay there sucking down his 250mls of 3.8% milk and quietly watched 5 minutes of what would end up being Stuart Skinner’s first NHL playoff Shutout.
What a great story – thanks for sharing. It’s one of the things I love about this blog.
Also I love the fact that I can still write the word “blog” in the year 2024.
Interesting (maybe?) fact – there was only 1 TV commercial break in the 3rd period instead of the usual 3.
There TV Timeouts are at the first whistle after the 14 minutes mark, 10 minutes mark and 6 minute mark (except no TO if the whistle is due to an icing or a goal or during a PP).
I believe, if they miss one, i.e. no permitted TO stoppage after the 14 minute mark but before the 10 minute mark, they skip the miss – I think.
A few observations:
-I don’t like 1-0 playoff games…my stomach was in my throat for 2 hours tonight.
-Hanaryan Singh has a great voice…he has some work to do from a content and timing perspective…but in 5 years he’s going to be one of the great canadian sports anchors…remember when most people shit on Jack Michaels 12 years ago?
-Shorthouse is a killer too, i think having John Garrett Shackled to his ankle since 2002 has held him back.
-Perry will be too slow against the Avs or Canucks, luckily we have Brown waiting in the wings…depth is a beautiful thing.
-Ryan just stomped Carrick down the depth chart tonight…without even knowing his face-off numbers…such a good game by D-R….creates a grade A chance on his first touch…mistake free hockey….big hit in the O-zone…you love to see it.
-Conor looked tentative, probably re-aggravated whatever was ailing him when Gavrikov slid into him in game 3….pray we close it out in 5 and Nashville pushes to 7
-Watching Doughty and Kopitar (despite their obvious remaining talent) get subtly worse over the last 3 playoffs has been a blessing to watch…
-Conversely, watching McDrai and Nurse subtly mature over 3 playoffs has been equally satisfying. The boys looked very mature, very disciplined tonight.
-Ceci is playing very well, mistake free tonight.
-Desi is a whale, I saw a re-tweet saying Stauff mentioned a 7-year extension for him….at anything less than $2M sign me the fuk up! From Vinny’s perspective it makes sense….guaranteed $12+M USD in the bank with a shot at another 2-3 yr contract at age 34?…very tempting.
If the Oilers go deep in the playoffs, all their free agents become MUCH more expensive. That’s because, for the first time since 2006, the whole hockey world starts talking about their depth players. Remember the ridiculous contracts handed out to Pisani, Moreau, Reasoner, and a couple others in the 2006 off-season?
If we have to choose between a cheap Desharnais and a deep playoff run…I’ll take the latter.
Desharnais was very very good tonight – even his on-ice numbers were good in a game with shots this lopsided. He was a wet blanket on everything coming down his side all night. Impressive.
VERY good.
A disciplined game from the whole team, plus a little magic from Skinner. Excellent effort all around!
NHL round 1 is trending short:
one 4-0
six 3-1
one 2-1
A strong win. The Kings threw everything they had at the Oilers, played as well as they possibly can, and generated not all that much.
There were a lot of shots, but their entire game plan is to fire the puck on net and hope for the best. There were some good deflections, some dangerous screens, but there wasn’t much in the way of open looks or five bell chances.
I was saying this in the first period last night and it kept up all game.
I wish they would have the puck more and defend less but that was elite defending. They contested everything.
I don’t recall a single 5-alarm chance and maybe 2-3 high danger.
I’d rate this one as very “unlucky” on the reffing, despite technically winning this one on special teams, and the despite the 1-1 draw on penalties.
I count at least three clean cut penalties on the Oilers that went uncalled (Doughty’s hold up of McDavid, the slew foot on Kane; and the slash on stick with 30 s to go), and the “swallow the whistle” nonsense is more generally something that works against the Oilers.
Good to see the team be able to get the W despite how the game was “managed” by the refs.
I disagree, Oil got away with at least 2 potential calls….This might have as close to a perfectly reffed game as I’ve seen in a while…stripes stayed out of the way. Doughty was the only obvious missed call on the kings, and the oilers got away with a slash on the hands that caused a possession change….it was a wash imo.
By staying out of the way, they got in the way, in my opinion.
Some legit interference out there they simply took away scoring chances.
Some infarctions need to be called.
Meh. If it’s in front of the net and takes away a scoring chance, call it.
If it’s a little tug with the stick at centre ice, let ‘em play.
This is a growth game for this group.
Different circumstances, but reminds me of the 1st Cup Finals in 1984 when they won that game 1-0.
Stu looked dialed-in from puck drop, I have hope that the will the version of the player we see from now on moving forward.
IMHO, this is the greatest win in Connor McDavid’s career.
Absolute awesomeness
The next game will be fire!
Let’s go boys!!!!
That has to be crushing for the LA.
Now they can’t score.
In other news, Nashville blew a 3-1 lead with less than 3 minutes to go and lost in OT. (Canucks tied it with 8 seconds left).
Nucks have horseshoes up their butts that’s for sure.
Another Canucks win, another Canucks goalie gets injured, and another finger on the monkey’s paw closes.
I wish I had a monkey’s paw
https://www.skullstore.ca/products/lucky-monkey-paw-chacma-baboon-three-wishes
Stu Skinner rocking a .984 and a .5 GAA since hitting the bottom in game two.
Connor Hellybuck has given up nine goals in the same timeframe.
Schiefele a -6 in the losses.
PLD level useless I tells ya. Actually that’s mean. More like RyJo or Josh Anderson. He at least shows up sometimes.
The PLD trade is going to hurt the Kings big time for a long, long time. Presumably Blake gets fired, and maybe then they buy out Dubois.
He’s actually looked decent so far this series….not $8M decent, but decent.
I want to add that Knobs might be the best big brain coach in Oilers’ history. So many subtle decisions that the common fan will never notice but add up to make a big difference. Ryan in for added defensive skills in maybe the biggest defensive win ever, Holloway getting a couple shifts up with McD to keep his momentum/buzz going, literally every time Drai gets randomly put out to take specific 4 line d-zone draws. Even the whole big guns deployment first shift after a PK, is something Woody never would have thought of.
He sure trusts his 4th line…I remember a shift in the 2nd where the oilers were hemmed in for a long stretch….each forward eked his way to the bench for a line change and the 4th line trickled out..I was questioning the tactic but Jammark made a nice play on the wall and Holloway applied a ton of pressure to keep the puck down range allowing the d-pair to change…Man, Janmark Ryan Holloway is one hell of a 4th line.
Not just the first shutout of the playoffs but the first of Skinner’s career too. What a confidence-builder for him in the midst of a “Cup-or-bust” drive.
And I know the Leafs only have one PP goal in 13 attempts, but have any teams other than the Kings gone oh-fer in their series? PK was one of my biggest concerns entering the playoffs and here we are four games in and it’s impossible to be more successful than the Oil have been. That’s also a key shutout.
Anyone know the record for fewest shots in a playoff game & still getting the Win?
Can*cks won with 12 shots two nights ago.
10 shots.
90s New Jersey and another team back in the 70s, I think (believe Chicago, but can’t recall).
Not sure how far back statmuse has sufficient shot data, but here are some games from the last 5 years:
13 shot playoff wins
2024 EDM 1 LAK 0 / 2011 VAN 4 SJS 2 / 2003 VAN 3 MIN 2 / 2002 MON 2 BOS 1 / 1999 PIT 4 NJD 2
12 shot playoff wins
2024 VAN 2 NSH 1 / 2017 PIT 5 NSH 3
11 shot playoff wins
2016 PHI 2 WSH 0 / 1998 WSH 2 OTT 0
10 shot playoff wins
1990 NJD 2 WSH 1 / 1974 CHI 1 LAK 0
Please let us win in 5. West coast 8:30 pm starts are terrible.
might be the same in vancouver?
I hear you. I’m in the nation’s capital and I’m exhausted this morning. Go Oilers Go.
If you enjoyed the main course, don’t forget the dessert.
https://lakingsinsider.com/2024/04/28/game-thread-r1-g4-kings-vs-oilers-4-28/
We can relate. We’ve been on the losing side of games like that for what seemed like an eternity.
Doesn’t make me feel bad for them, though 😜
Watching that game with Doughty playing over 27 minutes, I can’t help but think that the Kings could have really used a player, like say, a Sean Durzi or a Brock Faber
1993 comments of misery
I love it!
2025 and climbing!!!
LoL
The La Kings blog believes in
shotcomment volume.Some fans in the comments have buying out PLD as the first step to getting the Kings back on track.
Yikes.
How heart-breaking a loss is that for the Kings? Have all the shots and all the offense and still lose. Can’t out-score the Oil in track meetsand can’t out-defend in a tight one. What’s left for them?
Don’t forget they can’t take a single penalty either. They are the little brother who picked up the controller not realising their older brother has put hockey on expert mode right now.
Good game. Now do it again.
Even Foegele settled down after a chicken-with-his-head-cut-off first period.
Yup. There might have only been 3 or 4 bad clearing attempts or unnecessary passes the whole game. The stats may look weird but the Kings played an incredible game when you think about it. Relentless pressure through all 3 zones so it wasn’t like we had low shots because we were making bad decisions.
Winning a 1-0 game and playing outstanding team defense. I will take it. Not going to bury a team with Offensive fire power every game, especially against a desperate team that is throwing everything they’ve got at you. That is the absolute best the Kings can play.
So even the post game host chirping about how bad the call was on Englund????? Give your frigging head a shake.
The make up call against Kulak was way way worse in terms of weak calls.
LOL, he lost his stick, bear hugged the Oiler then gave him 2 or 3 shots to the back of the head. woulda been 6 minutes in a regular game!
This win belongs to Stu Skinner and Kris Knoblauch.
Bouchard was outstanding tonight too.
Kings puck luck from the first 2 games regressed to the meat.
Oilers gotta rest and ice themselves for G5, because those bastards will be out for blood.
That’s the first shut-out of this year’s playoffs.
Well that was a gear that I did not know that they had. Very impressive.
BOOM!!! Can’t recall a single tIme anyone flew the zone or tried to cheat for offence! Masterful display of patience and discipline. Sure, not a lot of offence but la was allowed an insane amount of leeway for holding, interference and hooking so I’ll take it.
We didn’t flinch. Stayed disciplined. Played stout defence and took advantage of our chance.
Reminded me of the good ol days(16 win streak).
Yes. This was a team-win… to hell with personal stats. Winning is so much more meaningful. Knobby has brought out the best, now repeat.
Another special teams win.
Kings road to victory now entails needing to win three straight, including two on the road. That was a huge win.
Oilers proved all they need is one goal against the kings. Great shutout for Skinner. Awesome.
Refs were trying to do some serious game management.
Let the Kings do all of their slewfoots and extra shots, and the Oilers knew if they retaliated or tried the same, they would be penalized.
I hope the Kings all come down with bouts of diarrhea tonight.
There were only two penalties called,
One for each team. They let the boys play. Oiler capitalized , kings didn’t..
I don’t consider what we saw “letting the boys play”.
Allowing all that interference and the inability to get to loose pucks for scoring chances, as just one example, is not “letting them play”.
If this is the year that Stanley returns to Edmonton, Skinner’s game tonight will be right up there with the Fuhr’s 1-0 win in Game 1 of the 1984 Finals.
Skinner got a shutout and barely broke a sweat.
That was damn near a PERFECT defensive game. There are three chances I didn’t like. That’s it, that’s all.
Been waiting a lonnnnnggggggggg time for that kinda lockdown.
Oh and Godot – Bouchard 1-0-1 🙂
Perfect defensive game? 35 shots against many high danger. That was a clinic on behalf of LA who ran into a hot tender.
A clinic? By LA? No friend, not at all.
They got nothing. They suck. Stu had to stretch for one chance in the 3rd. Everything else was straight away.
Easy, peasy.
Enjoy the win, the Kings are done.
There was one chance by Anderson down royal road that was bad.
Arvidsson maybe late in the 3rd.
They didn’t get a sniff. Unbelievably dejecting game if you’re the Kings.
I’m not sure I can think of one 5-alarm chance and only a couple high danger.
The Oilers gave up so few clean looks on net.
Let’s put this thing away in 5 and move on
The Kings managed to play the exact game they wanted to play. And they lost. That has to hurt.
Good.
Didn’t they abandon the1-3-1? They must be totally messed up now.
One goal game, clock ticking down, with zero emotion in his voice…
“The Oilers… Getting in a change…”
We better get Cuthbert if it’s Vancouver/Edmonton next round.
Hanrahan, Louie, and late night games are an unfortunate combination.
zzzzzzzzzzz . . .
STUPENDOUS!
Did we just out-King the Kings?
Well, it took a while, but, yes, we CAN have nice things
(Lord, what an absolute heist)
The Oil, blanking the end. 🥌
Love it. #PlayLaBambaBaby
It wasn’t pretty, but we’ll take it.
it wasn’t pretty, it was god damn beautiful!
Skinner is going on a Ranford run wooot
If they get that every game watch out.
Have to have more offensive sustain than that though – yikes
97 hurt? Looked tired
I don’t think so, real soft ice. Nobody could carry the puck tonight it just wouldn’t follow them.
Total butt-clench game by the Oilers. Pure butt muscles.
I really don’t care about the shot total.
Nope, don’t love that they were defending all game but damn did they ever defend well, from the opening puck drop through the end of the game.
The Kings didn’t really have a ton of great pucks on net.
Bouch, Deharnais and Ekholm were great.
Nurse/Ceci defending all night but I thought they played well despite caved in posession.
Great night.
Well done Stu!
Really tight checking by the good guys for the win
Holy crap, love that we won but what a horrible game. Skinner gets all 3 stars.
Oddly enough, Rittich was getting undeserved praise. So he’ll probably start game 5, and hopefully we can actually take it to him
Oilers defended at an elite level tonight.
That must have been the game plan.
Wonderful game by Skinner. Wow.
Great to be up 3-1 as well.
I don’t know if that will ever match the Kevin McLellan game but that’s a big shutout win
The King’s are tired. You could tell in the 3rd they’ve just run out of gas. They played a great game, what you would call prototypical LA hockey.
Doughty came close to 30 minutes. Don’t think it was a coincidence he was falling at the end there.
It’s a shame he’ll get an extra day of rest for his tired ass