This is a summer 2020 look at my summer 2010 top-20 prospects list. As you can see, college defensemen, shutdown defensemen and goaltenders are the most difficult prospects to project. We’re about to get a lesson in why paying attention to AHL scoring numbers, while interesting, is not the best tool for predicting future NHL success.
NHLE for 2023-24 Condors
I will tell you now that the top candidates (imo) for NHL graduation and success are Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe. If you watched Bakersfield’s games, it’s obvious those two men acclimated better than any of the kids who arrived in the AHL over the last two seasons. Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg are the gold standard, followed by a bunch of also-rans and then Wanner and Grubbe. Here’s the list, forwards then blue. Rookies in bold. Anything 30+ represents a real prospect.
- Dylan Holloway 35
- Raphael Lavoie 30
- James Hamblin 25
- Tyler Tullio 15
- Carter Savoie 14
- Xavier Bourgault 14
- Carl Berglund 13
- Matvey Petrov 11
- Jayden Grubbe 8
Based on this season’s AHL numbers, I would suggest that Dylan Holloway is now a bona fide NHL-ready forward. His performance in Edmonton during the last while confirms it, and since he has played 89 games in the world’s best league, we’ll consider him graduated.
Raphael Lavoie is right at the edge of reality for prospects. I think he’ll get a 50-game look somehwere, not at all certain it’ Edmonton.
For the rest of the non-rookies on this list, safe to say Tyler Tullio and his two-way skill set are best suited for eventually carving out a depth role in the NHL. Carter Savoie will need to stay healthy and flash that release more next season. As for Bourgault, he needs to increase his strength and impact the play far more often. He looked lost in the supermarket too much this season. Frankly, Bourgault’s rookie year was more impressive.
The rookies (Patrov and Grubbe) showed well in spurts, and I do think Petrov has real offensive talent. The Condors need to make room for him in 2024-25. If you draft a guy, you need to play a guy. That shouldn’t need to be said but we are here. Here are the defensemen, I have age 24 as the cutoff so Cam Dineen, Markus Niemelainen and Ben Gleason are not listed.
- Philip Broberg 31
- Noel Hoefenmayer 15
- Max Wanner 10
- Phil Kemp 9
The Broberg NHLE is (in my opinion) more impressive than Holloway’s total, but the point is moot. They’re both bona fide. After that, Noel Hoefenmayer is an interesting player (as are Dineen and Gleason) but did not emerge from the pack as a unique defenseman.
Max Wanner did exactly that. A nasty piece of work, he not only survived but thrived. The coaching staff placed him in the lineup, quickly elevated him to a feature role and he passed every test. One of my great mysteries of the 2023-24 season is Wanner’s deployment compared to the prospect forwards. The only reasonable conclusion I can find? There are too many forwards in Bakersfield. You can’t roller skate in a buffalo herd and you can’t find minutes for nine prospects at a time, especially when seven established veterans are hanging around.
An extra day off gives us a chance to take the temperature of the Oilers-Kings series today on the Lowdown (noon to 2, Sports 1440). Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic will join us to talk about what’s gone right and the importance of finishing off the Kings tomorrow night. We’ll also talk Jays, NBA playoffs, CFL draft and more. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
If Desharnais wants a couple of bundles or more, I say let him walk and trade a mid pick for the next Desharnais:
https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/johnathan-kovacevic
Spend the cap on a Ceci upgrade.
Who is the upgrade, why can’t we have both an upgrade and Desharnais? If the ask is <= 2.5M that should be possible.
Any legitimate upgrade on Ceci is necessarily going to cost more than Ceci does, possibly a lot more. Edmonton isn’t exactly swimming in cap space, so I would prioritize the spending on 2RD over 3RD.
I don’t think Edmonton can afford to spend over $5M on their 3rd pairing (Kulak – Desharnais).
No but it should contain Bro not Kulak next season
That is a very interesting idea. If the Oilers win the Cup, why wouldn’t Montreal want a hometown kid with a ring on their backend. Have them throw in a couple of 3rd rounders, if there is a market during the draft.
The reasonable path forward is very clear (at least to me but I am but a nobody):
1) Vinny knows he has not established himself as a player that can play up the lineup nightly so he takes a 2-year deal that more than doubles his current AAV – puts some real money in his pocket for 2-years ($1.6MM X 2) and he continues to develop and work to be a legit 2nd pairing shut-down guy.
2) He works to be the next Jamie Oleksiak over the next few years and, if he is, boom, he replaces Ceci when his contract comes up.
3) Max Wanner comes in as the Jason Smith it training 3RD
Agreed, but there several variables at play.
It would be nice to hope that loyalty play a massive hand in this, at the same time Vinnie’s family has made a huge investment in his career and he may decide to maximize his opportunity, if there is a significant demand for his services.
Well, they’re headed back to Nashville. A one goal lead… another crazy final minute, this time the result was different.
I’m so happy. I had a UK based deal closing so had to be on a “Closing Call” at 3am – when I checked the score I read it was 2-1 Canucks and was so disappointed. When I woke up for real this morning, I looked again and was so pleasantly surprised to see them have to head back across the continent.
Is Zadorov a better comp for big Vince?
He wasn’t considered much but a big defender for years, but he has kept getting better, 29y old and valuable playoff piece.
He must have been more valued at one point – somehow he got 3.75 mil/yr but is on an expiring contract.
He was good for Calgary, good for Vancouver. Always been a mountain that players avoid, but now he’s putting uo
points as well.
From my viewings he has a lot more puck skill and is a better skater
He was a 16th overall pick, that has an impact on his salary.
The Canucks and an unsustainable PDO, name a more iconic duo.
I would agree but the dam PDO doesn’t want to go away!
One back for Nashville. We really want this series to run long
I know that matchups make fights. I know we went 0-4 against them this year. But their performance through almost 5 games against Nashville gives me a lot of confidence.
I agree! But still want the longest series possible. But in Cory Perry’s words , the Predators “are so bad”
Yes, *if* the Oilers and Dy’s meet, let’s keep that ‘Oiler underdog’ narrative!
It’s been normalized for a long time.
It’s the second highest of all playoff teams and was the highest of all regular season teams.
And here we go again. Another late goal coming? Hope not
Nice result. Predators are not that talented but they work hard for the wins.
Winnipeg looks perfectly content to start their holiday plans tomorrow. Something is wrong with that team’s internals.
Yep – they’re less than the sum of their parts and Helly’s been ordinary. Series over, but they overachieved on the season – many didn’t pick them to make the playoffs.
Colorado just too fast for them. Every point shot seems to go in for the Avs
Get rid of Schiefele and the team can start to heal.
Leafs better without Mr. Couldn’t Get 70 – confirmed.
Well some in Cabbagetown predicted an Arizona kid would play hero
Any info released on the injury?
Leafs won in OT… Back to TO.
Leafs + Bruins 1-1 after 2. Leafs could be booking T times in about 45 mins. (or not!)
I’m glad Kris is spreading out the minutes. This is a unified team unlike we’ve seen since the Rollie days. Everyone needs to contribute if we’re going to win 13 more games. A 3rd line and a shutdown pair are vital in the next 2 months.
The defensive envelope around Stu had me very much in mind of the troops closing up around Roli
The killer kid from speedy creek does a damn fine cover of this tune!
https://youtu.be/hh-jwdWmgxg?si=uJtMSNiErelSXevO
Per DNB, bottom six at practice:
Holloway/McLeod/Perry
Foegele/Ryan/Janmark
Also of note, all the regulars on the ice at practice – no maintenance days or anything like that.
That Foegele, really does spruce up the… fourth line.
😎
They can switch things up as they please. That’s the beauty of this forward group and they are used to playing in different combinations. They could just as easily have a speedy third line with (Holloway-MacLeod-Foegele) and go with a savvy veteran line of (Janmark-Ryan-Perry) or …………..
WF tied for the team lead with 3 giveaways (1 takeaway), 9th in TOI for F, 1A. DH is 10th in TOI and 0 giveaways (0 takeaways) and 2G. Could be something to do with that
The bees starting buzzing in tight quarters. Warren isn’t crazy about contact.
DH has almost twice as many hits as well
This should of been Holloway spot from the deadline. Does Foegele get you a Henrique type at the deadline? You tell me.
No, he doesn’t.
Non-playoff teams selling off their UFAs are not looking for pending UFAs in return.
What if they want to sign him to a 4 year lucrative deal. The Coyotes for example will be blowing money like a drunken sailor.
If they do, they do. I feel like that would be a poor decision taking in to account all factors (that I see).
Mr Holland doesn’t seem too notice or think important some things
Like players that disappear in playoffs. A more assertive GM would be changing up some players. Mr Holland says teams that win Cups fail a lot first. He may not have noticed the work more recent Cup winning GMs did in reaction to those playoff fails
You somehow neglected to mention that Foegele also has a goal, and 10 shots to Holloway’s three.
The pile on’s are coming quicker and getting a bit more desperate as we go on.
I look at 5v5, where the team has issues in the playoffs it seems
In fairness to Wanner and Grubbe, they are both seen as depth players. Our starting point with them is a lower bar as future bottom pairing or bottom 6 players, whereas all the others are seen as having offensive skills, or top 6 potential.
This has a massive impact on our perceptions of players as successful or as having NHL potential or not. Agree or not, it is a fact that our biases have impacts on our perceptions/expectations, etc.
That being said, they are excelling in their roles. Kudos to both of them.
They are also the types of players who make the NHL from the AHL.
100%
Nice to read about futures at this time of the year. Gives the fanbase something extra to look forward to even while the big club is taking care of business.
Don’t disagree on their acclimation (but would throw Noah Phip in that group – of course, he was an “older kid”).
I would cite size and strength as a primary reason for this.
Philp didn’t play on the 2023-24 Condors.
Correct, he did not, but your post did speak to kids who arrived in the AHL over the last two seasons and Philp arrived over the last two seasons.
Fair. I think it’s important to look at Philp as an outlier in projecting the past on to the future. It could take him some or most of next season to get him back to do-re-mi, or even longer.
I agree that the kids should have been played more, but this season (for multiple reasons: last as GM, pressure from the stars, timelines, etc) is “cup or bust”.
I believe a huge factor in the role out of the forwards, was to have a “fifth line” come playoffs, incase we were dealing with injuries. It’s definitely an eye on the prize as opposed to the future, but having a game ready samwise, erne, etc has more value in the moment. it’s a bit myopic, but i understand the logic.
The echl is a great development league. I’m not sure why the oilers don’t use it more effectively in order to get younger players more minutes.
Lots of talk about Vinny’s next contract yesterday. I still think most people are expecting it to be lower than it will be, or for the organization to let him walk. I’m not so sure. The old you can’t teach 6’7″ and 226 lbs keeps coming to mind. Where else do we find a guy that can put both 6’3″ Kopitar and 6’5″ Byfield in a headlock at the same time?
Lots pointing out that he’s not young too. This is true. But he’s also only played 114 NHL games, and only 273 pro games in total. It’s the opposite career path of Sam Gagner, who played 600 NHL games by age twelve (if I recall correctly).
Vinny has continued to get better every year since we drafted him. I’m not sure he’s done developing. Fellow college man Zach Hyman has provided him with an excellent example of continuing to develop into the age 31 season.
I think the Alex Vlasic contract is interesting. Different ages and pedigree, but very similar statistical profiles and size. He just signed for six years at 4.6m aav.
Vlasic has the higher ceiling and brighter future, but Desharnais is likely worth at least half of that.
https://stathead.com/hockey/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&player_id1=vlasial01&player_id2=deshavi01
Vlassic also plays ~5 min/game more than Vinny.
And is five years younger, so that six year contract basically ends where Vinny is after next season.
To my eye, those two aren’t strong comparables.
If he can have half the career Johnny Boychuk did thats a win. 2nd round pick took him 8-9 years to get full time work and was part of those early 10’s Bruins teams that were dominant. 700+ games. It’s rare, but that’s the ideal trajectory. Boychuk was a damn good player behind Chara’s top pair. That has tremendous value.
I’d have his comparables as the Calgary boys; Zadorov and Gudbranson. Both are bigger hitters and meaner and have more draft pedigree and they’ve made 3.5-4 in their primes. Vinny doesn’t play as high in the lineup, doesn’t score as well and isn’t as mean so I can’t see him crossing over 3 million.
I agree with this. I think the Oilers get him at $2.25 million times too many. Something like that.
Curious LT – would you cross the $2M line for Vinny?
$2.25/$87.7 = 2.56% of the (assumed) cap next year.
Maybe I’m being miserly, but I think that’s a touch high. I’d like to see the AAV at 1.50-2.25% of the cap based on his comps. So that would look like $1.3155MM to $1.97325MM… $2MM as the upper boundary.
What’s tough for me to ascertain is where is Vinny’s ceiling? His skating isn’t likely to improve by much, but I have noticed a bump in his offensive touch and defensive reads since playoffs last year. Perhaps more gains there could lead to better results when deployed in the top four.
Some interesting names that come up as comps when I plug in active right shot defensemen who play up to 18 mins a night (third pair) on CapFriendly:
I’d take Vinny over Bogosian, Schenn, and Lyubushkin, but the rest I’d have to do a deep dive to see any of them as lesser RHD. YMMV.
I see Vinny as a Scott Mayfield comparable, and Mayfield was signed to very high 7 x $3.5 million contract, coming off a 5 x $1.45 million contract.
The 5 year deal was signed after he had played a handful off games over of 3 NHL seasons, 5, 6, 25, followed by 47 games, in addition to 3 1/3 seasons in the AHL.
Something like a 3 x $1.875 million contract would hopefully be seen as reasonable to his camp
5 x $1.45M makes a whole lot of sense for Vinny Desharnais. The Scott Mayfield initial contract, that’s the comparable the oilers should be looking at. IMO.
Unfortunately, prices are higher than 4 seasons ago and there are a few more roster spots in the league. More competition for his services and a higher salary cap will also mean higher cost. I think less than $2 million AAV would only be possible on a 2-3 year contract.
I think 2 years at that type of number (likely a bit higher, at $1.75MM) makes sense for the player and the team.
I don’t think he’d want to sign for 5-years as it limits his upside.
2 years gives him some solid security and a few years to prove he’s worth top 4 money. He simply hasn’t done that yet and a good playoff run won’t change that (many teams have regretted signing players based on small sample playoff run performances).
The organization cannot commit more than a $2MM cap hit for 2025/26 (when Bouch and Drai will have raises kicking in) for a player that, at this point, has not proven to be more than a 3rd pairing and PK d-man with very limited transition and offensive skills.
A 2-year deal lines up with Ceci’s contract expiry and the potential influx of a Max Wanner.
on the other hand if Oil go far this postseason and Vinnie looks good for the duration this summer might be his one and only time to cash. No one knows how Vinnie will age (well, for a while yet I suspect) or when the inury bug might bite. If I’m his agent or his dad I tell him to maximize his value. If I’m Vinnie maybe I’m happy playing on a winning team with my friends as a ‘lesser’ millionaire
His career earnings appear to be in the $1.2M range as of today (minus escrow and taxes).
In addition to the situation and any loyalty, I could easily see him take $8-9M over 5 years (for instance) even if it’s not the most likely path to maximize his career earnings.
I think there’s a very good comparable that just signed last month: Simon Benoit, 3 yrs @ 1.35mil. Vinny is more ‘special’ given he’s a 6’7 RD but he’s not so much more special as to warrant the 2+mil I see some suggesting. Of course, a successful playoff run would drive up the ask up some but there’s no world in which I go above 1.75mil. If he’d sacrifice cap hit for term, I’d go as high as 1.5mil * 4. A guaranteed 6mil to play on a competitive team alongside your good friend for 4 years.
No team last summer was willing to give Benoit even a league min deal until Aug. 28th. I don’t think he’s a fair comparable.
What was Dessy last summer? A highly sought-after prospect?
Stetcher & Desharnais are completely different players in both size & skills. No comparison really other than that they both play 3RD.
Since they both bring completely different solutions to that position it isn’t fair to compare their price tags other than in the sense that they both would find their name in the same slot on the team’s depth chart but that is exactly what a GM has to do in a cap league.
He has to decide how many more wins does Vinny represent playing that position than Stetcher and then look at the difference in cap dollars it would take to sign one over the other.
A 30 year old Stetcher who isn’t playing in the most important part of the season is probably easily signed for around the same amount as his current contract so the question the GM needs to answer is how badly does he need that ~ $1.5 M difference to shore up another area of weakness next season – and how close is Wanner or Kemp in case of injury etc.
So this is really just a long winded post about the distinction between what a player’s worth is around the league versus what his current team thinks it can afford to pay for that position given its impact on wins. It’s going to be an interesting summer for a number of roster players.
Vinny reminds me of Matt Greene; huge defensively responsible fearless RHD who will play on the 3rd pairing of a contender for half a decade and will sacrifice everything to help a team win. Great leader on and off the ice who will show the kids what it takes to stay in the NHL.
Guys like Vinny are the types of players that Steve Staois talks about when he says he’s looking for “good pros.” Ottawa will be one team that offers him a bag of money if he hits UFA this summer. Holland would be wise to offer a long term deal that trades security for a lower cap hit of around 2.5 million per season. Vinny is not going back to the minors and he will get offers which exceed 3 million per season if he’s allowed to test the market.
Agreed. There is always a GM out there who needs a particular roster spot filled with a particular set of skills and player type that is willing to pay more than others for whom the need isn’t quite as great – and also has the budget to do so. Urgency to win in a place like Ottawa also pushes the offers up.
That said I am pretty sure there is a number above which the Oilers cannot afford to go that is lower than he could get as a free agent so I would expect management is watching Stetcher in practice and the room – just in case.
It’s very possible that Arizona/SLC distorts the D market in a significant way this summer.
They have zero NHL defensemen under contract but do have 4 young D, including Durzi, Valimaki, Moser and Kesselring as RFA’s with arbitration rights.
Considering the new owner will want to make a splash in the fall, they are likely to be major players in the free agent market and have $43 million in cap space and 13 draft picks to play with.
Hey we all love Vinny’s development into a d-zone / PK monster – but let’s be clear – he’s a liability in the offensive zone at present. Can he pick up a trick or two offensively, well sure, but at his age it won’t be much. You cannot pay more than $1.95 million unless he can play 2nd pair (which he can’t with such limited offensive skills). Re-signing Vinny means getting rid of Kulak and slotting in Broberg. All well and good, but we are still hunting for that 2RHD upgrade on Ceci, and it isn’t Vinny. Maybe Wanner in a couple of years.
To me for the team to be better, which should always be the goal, continual improvement, they have to get better players than Ceci and Des. It’s too bad Kulak isn’t a R, he’s the best of the 3
The why is what Tippet mentioned. Vinny is big and blocks shots and does good work on PK. But he also is slow, plays at a slower, and isn’t great with the puck. Same as Ceci
They are pushing themselves and are playing better than pre-Coffey, but it isn’t natural for them. They defend fairly well, but as Tippet said, it’s because they defend too much. They are a drag on the forwards because of puck moving and being helpful offensively
Maybe there is no change the management can see this summer. Maybe the new GM is better at making deals and can find something, and recognizes that for this roster better skills on the RD is needed to make the team that much better, and help Nurse be at a higher level
Good in zone D play is great, as is size and toughness. But hockey ability first, defending the line, retrievals and outlets, ability at the O blue line, especially on a team with the talent this team has and could utilize even more. As Knighttown said recently the forwards flying the zone is part of how breakouts are done currently, and getting that puck quickly and up fast and well makes this much better
I’m sure I’ll see some rebuttal stats, but the team is not strong enough 5v5 in the playoffs so far, and the stats I’m seeing at NST are not looking good for any pair but Ek Bouch. I think a significant part of the 5v5 issues lies here, the second part being when the forwards aren’t helping enough. And the sometimes weak line changes
Yes Ek Bouch get Connor, but it’s not like L2 isn’t talented, and L3 is playing well
I dunno.
Kulak did no better when he had a ‘2’ in front of LD than Ceci has done with a 1 or 2 in front of RD.
Ceci gets to play with Nurse. Kulak got to play with Bouchard when he was in one of his worst funks.
But who was he playing with? I get your point, I think his mobility and better passing gives him the edge. Last playoffs he was very good, hopefully again
Also blue line defending
Barrie and Bouchard mostly. Agree on Kulak’s mobility but Ceci was the one who scored more this year. I’m just not at all sold that Kulak is better.
Playoff hockey is NOT regular season hockey. Regular statistics are going to be funky, because playoffs are match play rather than total points. The incentives are different. The intensity is different. The requirements are different.
Toni Rajala had big Tony Hand energy.
Lit up the minors then was gone baby gone.
Morale of the story, don’t name your kid any languages’ shorthand of Anthony. If you want them to make the NHL, name them Ryan.
or Connor!
The Flyin’ Ryan Brothers Three Ring CIrcus!
Big game in Vancouver tonight.
While I don’t think there is much chance that the Pred come back and win 3 straight, I am all for them winning game 5 and forcing the teams to make another trip to Nashville and back – decently long flights, two hour time change, customs, etc.
Do it!
For the same reason, I was thrilled to see Dallas tie the series with LV. I hope those 2 beat each other to a pulp over 7 games.
…and set records for longest overtime game with each succeeding match. Game 7 should last about ten OT periods.
I miss the days Nelson was behind the bench in OKC, he had an eye to talent and knew how to develop rookies while building a winning culture.
He did. I think the problem lies with the GM’s though. I agree with LT you need some vets and talent at C or the wingers can’t develop, but not playing your spent draft assets because you value too many vets for some reason makes no sense. Young players can be just as good, you need to be able to see the right ones
if Nelson had been with another organization, he probably would have had a sincere chance to be an NHL head coach.
He’s had AHL success in other organizations, Grand Rapids and Hershey come to mind.
Was the D-coach as an assistant the year DAL went to the finals.
He’ll get his chance. It’s too bad it wasn’t with us, aside from a brief stint mopping up the mess left behind by Eakins. Burger Bob hired the wrong Todd.
The love of old has held the team back from where it might have been. Where they are is a great place, just saying it could be even better