This is a December 2022 look at Edmonton Oilers draft picks and their spot on the depth chart at that time. Not many months later, we can see that only Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard are assured of playing for the Oilers in 2024-25. The offer sheet sent by the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday effectively wipes out the “skaters” portion of Edmonton’s age 20-24 cluster. Stuart Skinner is still here and after that the impact positions belong to men in their peak years (97, 29, etc) and older gents who are or will be on the decline.
I think the Oilers have to match, there’s simply not enough bubbling under to cover off the talent loss. Two ‘value contracts’ evaporated with the offer sheet, no need to make it worse.
I dug into the archives today, for a couple of items written long ago. I hope you enjoy them.
THE $21.5 MILLION DOLLAR HICKE (August 3, 2007)
The only time Ernie Hicke ever gets mentioned now is in regard to Guy Lafleur and the ill-fated trade Oakland made to improve themselves for 70-71. The actual trade is rarely (if ever) listed, so allow me the honor: May 22, 1970: Montreal trades LW Ernie Hicke, their 1970 1st rd pick (C Chris Oddleifson) to Oakland for the Seals’ 1971 1st round pick, D Francois Lacombe and cash.
Hicke scored 22 goals as a rookie on a terrible team (there really is no current comp for the Oakland Seals, they were awful. If they had landed Gretzky, they’d have converted him to defense). Hicke wasn’t a bad hockey player really, and I think it’s unfair that the only time he gets mentioned is in regard to the Lafleur deal. After all, he didn’t make the trade. Frank Selke Jr made the deal. No one remembers that, though.
Dustin Penner is a better player than Ernie Hicke was, and fact is Edmonton is unlikely to win the draft lottery allowing the Anaheim Ducks to draft John Taveras (should he become eligible) or Steve Stamkos. It is at the very least a stretch to compare the two situations, but I think we can safely call it a “small Hicke” or “Hicke light” at this time.
I would be thrilled if Dustin Penner rolls off several seasons of 35+ goals and the Oil finish in the playoffs. It would make me very happy if Anaheim drafted a dud with the first, second and third round picks. I am not one of those who laughs when Burke says things like “we’re taking back 3 picks and given Kevin’s recent performance I expect them to be excellent picks.” In an industry rife with bullies and ego, Brian Burke is the king of the hill. I respect that.
But I don’t like this deal. I just don’t. It’s not close to full value, and it absolutely reeks of despair on Kevin Lowe’s part, brought into even greater focus because it is giving off a strong and foul odor the day it was completed. IS Dustin Penner a better player than Raffi Torres? Jarret Stoll? By how much?
The number of things that have to go right in order for the Oilers to get to even on this deal are massive, and I suspect you could not find an oddsmaker on the planet earth that would give you a fair shake on a bet this works out.
We are lost. Our money and our assets do not give us 100 cents on the dollar, and so we are left to overpay mid-level talent in the hopes they counter trey established wisdom and over one hundred years of the game’s history. Glory is farther away than ever, the game plan askew. The men in suits have gone mad.
WHAT DO SUCCESSFUL TEAMS HAVE IN COMMON (August 7, 2007)
What do successful teams have in common? In our sport goaltending is a big factor, but for the most part the
ownership of the team was huge. I’ve been close to some of the owners. My first year in Montreal, Molson sold the team to the two brothers Edgar and Peter Bronfman.
They were around the rink, but they never interfered. They played hockey on Sunday mornings with friends before we practised. I think the team got the feeling that they would do anything to win.
In Detroit Mike Ilitch is the same way, and that feeling was there even in Pittsburgh with Howard Baldwin. In my first three years with St. Louis our ownership did things that were unheard of. We lost four straight games in the finals but they happened to own a hotel in Florida where for three straight years they brought all the players and their families, as well as the scouts and the coaches.
Success comes from ownership, goaltending, and I’ve always been thinking that you can have a fire-wagon type of hockey but your ability to play good defence has got to surface. The thread that ran through all of my success was undoubtedly ownership’s commitment to win. I’ve been quite close to some of the owners, and the Bronfmans’ passion for the game as owners in Montreal and the Ilitches’ commitment to create a winning team in Detroit contributed greatly to our success.
-Scotty Bowman
At noon today on the Lowdown (Sports 1440 radio), we’ll continue to talk out the dual offer sheet and possible impact on the 2024-25 Edmonton Oilers roster. It’s a helluva news story in the middle of summer, and gives Stan Bowman a chance to show his mettle. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us to talk about it. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Hicke’s what? HICKE’S WHAT?!
What a wild offseason, where does the summer rank in terms of the history of this Org’s offseason follies? Number 2?
Bowman has to hang on to both players. A big resaon is due to age. This is a highly skilled, but very old team. More skilled youth, please, not only to get them more experience to aid in their growth, but also to help reduce the wear and tear on the grey balls and weary bones that dominate the roster.
Deployment-wise Hollywood is a great fit on 3LW with Henrique and a likely a much much more productive Brown. I can see him getting 40-50 points on that line.
Broberg will cost both Ceci and Kulak, but so what! Broberg is the Ekholm successor and future Bouchard partner in 3 years.
It makes zero sense to let these much more valuably young assets go for a 2nd and 3rd. It’s go time! This can be done, despite the perceived pain, lets see how good Scotty’s boy really is!
Problem is Bowman’s history is to jettison younger talent for lower cost veterans and/or draft picks that don’t turn out.
I am not concerned about his history, his time is now to reveal what he can do. And when see, we will know what he is or is not capable of.
6 days and counting, tick tock….
In the wise words of our host, “at a certain point you develop a past.”
I remain optimistic, while fully expecting it to turn out like always.
#becauseoilers
I completely understand 😀
A bit off topic but could have serious implications for Oilers broadcasting.
Corus has just cut 25% of its staff at Global Vancouver and has shuttered radio station CHML in Hamilton after almost 100 years on the air.
https://www.thespec.com/business/hamilton-region/900-chml-closes-ending-nearly-a-century-of-local-radio-in-hamilton/article_1afb959e-7cb6-5be3-96fc-1b9bfa92dc68.html
Corus is the parent company of Oilers rights holder 630 CHED and its stock is trading at less than 10 cents a share.
CHQR in Calgary also in jeopardy.
You were around for the transition of the analogue to digital era (or close enough).
Without any malice or gotchas, I am absolutely interested in your take on what may be the most viable path forward out of this mess.
Bell’s layoffs, Post Media, etc, etc.
This isn’t new. It’s not done with this latest iteration.
How does corporate media solve this conundrum?
It’s very complex but “corporate media” supported by government is actually the problem not the answer.
A real world example comes from personal experience.
I spent many years at CFRN Radio and TV when it was owned by GRA Rice.
It was a thriving enterprise when it was purchased by Electrohome Corp which decided to step outside its core business of manufacturing television sets in Kitchener Ontario.
That ended abruptly when it became obvious the Electrohome family threw in the towel due to lack of expertise and sold to Baton Broadcasting of Toronto which then was sold eventually to Bell and became CTV.
At every step, cost efficiencies became more important than the on air product and that process continues to this day.
Recently Rogers was granted permission to acquire Shaw assets not including Corus but due to its deep pockets is now crushing Corus by out bidding it for rights to American programming.
It seems Corus is close to bankruptcy and you can bet Rogers will pick up its assets for a song and will eliminate any of its competing TV or radio assets.
630 CHED is one of 38 remaining Corus owned radio stations across the country and if I worked at one I would be polishing up my resume,
TSN (Bell) has already shuttered many radio stations and I expect Rogers will follow suit (as we saw today in Hamilton.)
The ultimate answer likely lies in sports teams taking back their “broadcast” rights and streaming directly to their consumers bypassing corporate greed.
Back to the future.
.
“It’s very complex but ‘corporate media’ supported by government is actually the problem not the answer.”
This depends on if you’re the government or not. As you know “print journalism” receives a ridiculous amount of support from the government plans for more. They want Minitrue. Somehow Staples still has some freedom to opine. But money talks. I guess they doesn’t care about hockey. I don’t follow the minutiae but I believe Geist thinks broadcasters should get a piece.
Do you consider ITV to be independent in its Allardcom days?
OilersTV is on its way. But the live stuff is so brutal. Every preseason is a test of patience. Most high schools do a better job streaming.
Broadcasters already get a piece but they want even more,
They don’t get the ridiculous 35 percent per journalist that print media gets. How much are the subsidies?
Lots to unpack there, thanks for the considered response.
In terms of sports teams, you’re probably on to something. Unfortunately for viewers, as daniel mentioned, the current product is very rough around the edges. About as digestible as rhubarb leaves. Thankfully there’s a product there, just needs some work to be worth regular consumption. I’m sure with a vested interest they’ll manage to put out a quality product.
Regarding the news in general, I think there’s already a return to fundamental journalism released by folks outside of the typical institutions. Unaffiliated outlets are releasing their content on youtube and social media, publishing on their own websites, and reaching ever broadening audiences. As their stature grows they will gain wider access to prominent sources, and continue to usurp the traditional players in the space.
I like both Holloway and Broberg, but I wouldn’t match. Both players are poised to have breakout seasons, but those seasons probably won’t come in Edmonton this season. Even if you match, you still aren’t setting them up for success.
Holloway is, by all accounts, a top-six scoring winger. Rob Brown says he’s top six, and I’ll go with that. The Oilers have signed Arvidsson and Skinner to play in the top six, alongside McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, RNH, and Kane. That makes seven top-six players ahead of Holloway. The line of Janmark-Henrique-Brown is too effective not to keep together when the going gets tough. Holloway isn’t the type of player who will excel on the fourth line, and the salary raise doesn’t match that role. They also re-signed Perry and Henrique before Holloway. Holloway wasn’t a priority for Edmonton; Edmonton shouldn’t be a priority for Holloway.
Broberg appears to be a top-four defender. To be honest, I don’t see much in his advanced stats to get too excited about, but he has the skill. I believe the not-so great fancies are because they never found a steady partner for him, and they played him on both sides. He needs to play on the left side. His best on-ice stats were from the 2022-2023 season when he played 333:43 5v5 minutes with Bouchard (compared to only 189 minutes away from him). Away from Bouchard, his advanced stats in Edmonton weren’t impressive. Are you going to pair Broberg-Bouchard now that Ekholm-Bouchard are one of the hottest pairs in the league? I don’t think so. Would he get Nurse’s role? If he did, would he be successful? Broberg-Ceci? Broberg-Stecher? No. The analytics don’t support the player on the right side, and the right-side partners don’t support the success of the player. If you match on Broberg, can you bring someone in on the right side to help? No. So don’t match.
If you think Holloway is a top 6 winger. Than a little over 2 mil is still an absolute steal
Sure it would be a steal. Top-6 is Rob Brown’s assessment many many times on the radio. I believe the assessment as a potential/future state. But I also don’t think it’s likely to happen in Edmonton.
There is also a range of top-6 talent in the league. Who would you bet on to help bring home Stanley? Jeff Skinner at $3M or Holloway at $2.9M?
I don’t think it was/is that cut and dry.
Holloway played top 6 over Kane at points in the playoffs.
I also had Holloway playing quite a bit on both the 3rd and 2nd lines – same with Arvidsson.
Yes Holloway played top 6 9ver Kane. At points. But I’d say when you sign Skinner and Arvidsson and you don’t want to want to pay asking on an RFA , it’s pretty clear to player where he’s going to be in the lineup. And where the priorities are. Holloway wasn’t a priority and isn’t a priority for the top six.
Does it?
Is Holloway vying for a top-6 centre job? Bottom six, sure… maybe.
Top-6, he’s competing against Nuge, Hyman, Skinner, Arvidsson, Kane.
He must have dim hopes for his future if he thinks he cannot compete with the likes of those fellows. Especially over the next year or two.
It’s not about compete as much as opportunity. Look at what happened with Bouchard when Barrie was moved along. This is what needs to happen with Nurse and Broberg. But the NMC and contract prevents it. And I would say that signing Jeff Skinner presents a similar opportunity cost to Holloway.
I think the whole conversation about 8OV has to be thrown out. Pretend that Broberg was a surprising 5th rounder.
Can you get someone who has a 70% (?) chance of being a second-pairing guy for the next decade for $4.5M?
Maybe you can find the next Devon Toews or Nick Leddy. But the Islanders only seem to give away good players to other teams. And we seem give away good players to the Islanders. So that one won’t work.
I can’t find a better source for this to post on the blog, but here you go.
Via Elite Prospects: GMs and players get it — offer sheets are part of the business.
If you sign one as a player and stay, or if one happens to you as a manager… hockey folks get it. It’s part of the existing structure of the game. Basically nobody holds a grudge (except maybe Brian Burke).
https://urlebird.com/video/what-do-nhl-players-and-executives-think-abiut-offer-sheets-we-a-7402765137653861674/
It has not really been mentioned, but the Broberg offer sheet by St. Louis likely also effs up Dallas’s negotiation with Harley. Armstrong gets a twofer.
It may actually help Dallas who could easily bridge Harley at $5 million.
So, what you’re saying is… Broberg is a direct comparable for Thomas Harley.
We really don’t know.
Dallas has a very different development culture
Harley, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankhoven and, now, Mavrik Bourque were all granted opportunities to succeed while the Oilers seem to be obsessed with grinding the shit out of their prospects.
The piper is being paid.
Perhaps Faber would be a closer comparison to Harley?
1) What I think will happen.
I think the Oilers will match Holloway only.
2) What I would do.
I would match both.
3) What would Broberg prefer?
I think Broberg would prefer that the Oilers do not match. Something like 80-20. The St. Louis situation would be much better for Broberg’s career. The Full Broberg Experience is sort of blocked in Edmonton, where the Oilers need him and will want him to focus on being a shutdown guy on his offside. In St. Louis, he could be his full self playing on his strong side. And well, the fans (not me) are already predisposed to hating him (beginning with draft day). And his AAV will be a hard one for management to swallow.
4) What would Holloway prefer?
I think Holloway is fine either way, perhaps a slight lean to hoping the Oilers do not match i.e. 60-40. i.e. The act of signing an offer sheet means that one has opened one’s mind to the possiblity of change. One has opened the door and taken one step out.
on point
Completely agree.
You could match both and trade Ceci and Kulak send down a bunch of guys and replace with lower cap hits and LTIR Kane, reverse the send downs. It probably can be done
They would have lots of LTIR cap space, but when Kane is back -1 225 541 in cap. What do they do then? There isn’t an obvious player to move and they are only at 21 players
One thing Bowman had success with in Chicago is being able to move cap commitments out when up against the cap as part of a re-tooling process and retaining contender status. Not every individual move was great but, in aggregate, he had success in this area.
Like paying Tuevo Terravainen to move one year of Brian Bickell’s contract?
f
Be careful, it’s not safe saying something positive about Bowman around these parts.
I do agree with your assessment.
I’ve rescinded my earlier “let them both go” to seeing the need to keep Broberg. It comes down to our LD in 2-3 years.
Unless Nurse and Ekholm age like fine wine (Ekholm already is in some ways), an internal 1LD replacement in Broberg (50/50 chance) would be cheaper than signing a UFA or making a trade.
It’s risky looking at a left handed dman as a 2RD for two years, then hoping he claims the 1LD role moving forward.
Large risk either way, but I’d role the dice on Broberg. Holloway, sorry but no thanks.
No way I match Holloway he’s going to be 23 and has 9 career goals. I think because of a couple of flashy goals people are blinded, he goes through long stretches of nothingness with below average hands. I don’t see him scoring 20 goals he reminds me of Tyler Pitlick who had speed and shows flashes but injury riddled with the style he played to be effective. This is now a opportunity for Jarventie-Savoie-PTO to replace what Holloway brought. Enough with this doom and gooom whining. Sign Leon-Sign Bouchard-Sign Connor if Bowman does this we will be a contender for the next Decade.
Wow – a long ways from your thinking that not having Holloway in the playoffs was the reason for playoff series losses a few years ago.
That’s right Holloway was a unknown with speed. Are you comparing our forward depth 2 years ago to now Henrique-Skinner-Arvidsson or Turris-Shore-Perlini but we did have that power forward Yamamoto crashing and banging and causing havoc.
Look who Holloway was playing with as a rookie. Him and players like him will be a key component. More so than a winger like Skinner.
Couldn’t the oilers match, and then at the start of the year waive Perry and Josh brown, LTIR Kane and be compliant?
I’ve put up many scenarios in today. The Blues tactically put the Oilers in a tough spot. Without a major shake up one is going at least
As president of the Holloway fanclub I have to say we have Nuge Skinner Kane when he comes back and Janmark. He is definition of extra piece and he’s no longer cheap. I don’t see him batting any higher than 3LW
like a Foegele type
Smarter but agreed
Hopefully someday Holloway would have been the replacement for Henrique. (Or Skinner, though Matt Savoie might be a better candidate for that.)
But for the next 1-2 years, yeah, he’s a lot more expendable than Broberg.
Holloway will easily pass Janmark, Skinner, Kane and then Nuge in 2 years.
sign the guys and move out kulak and ceci
Sign the guys – yes.
Move out Ceci – yes.
Move out Kulak – no. Play him 3rd pairing.
With Kane going on LTIR, you want to be as close to the cap as possible at the start of the year.
I see the best way forward as
Skinner CMD Hyman
Nuge Drai Arvi
Janmark Henri Brown
X Ryan (X) Perry (X)
Nurse Bouch
Ek Bro
X Stecher Brown
1.064 in cap for cap accrual and adds
Decide later what is needed
Not ideal but the best option. I see the team as still as good or better. Zito tried to trade Ekblad, that’s how you do it to plan ahead. I’m fading Ek to not wear him out. I’m fading Nuge because others are better 5v5 and he can do special teams. The third line in playoffs was great, but like Kulak is better in playoffs Janmark isn’t always a third liner reg season and he is a team guy, will get his shot in playoffs
If you have Kane on LTIR, there is no accrual….
Good catch OP
I have Kane in and Janmark as 4 LW. On my phone so failed with the line up. They will have to replace Kane while he’s out
There’s plenty of sorting out to do with the D pairings and the fourth line is nonexistent, even if Holloway was still with the team. Broberg is much more valuable to the team than Holloway. However, if neither player wants to comply with the team’s salary structure take the picks and say goodbye. Find a couple players that fit .
They might do that. Holloway doesn’t project like Bro so I’d try to keep the latter as well
I also think that Stecher is a better partner for Nurse if it goes that way. Outside of Ekholm and Bouch the D all have enough flaws it’s a wash to me, except that I agree with Swedish that it’s likely Bro passes everyone but the top pair as it was. We won’t know until we see 20 games. And I’m not sure Brown isn’t at least as good as Des
Holloway is your best player after the top six and should be first up as a replacement.
it’s only this offer sheet that has him suddenly moved down in everybody’s minds.
devaluing to allow acceptance
In this sample roster, Ryan and Perry have no business being on the team. And the third line is the fourth line.
leaving the need for 3 energetic third liners
If they wanna keep Broberg Holloway I think the way forward is LTIR Kane trade Ceci. As much as I’d like to think they could hide Kane until playoffs I doubt they could pull it off. When Kane is coming back trade Kulak for expiring 3 LD on double retention. And then trade Broberg to Chicago or Minnesota next offseason
I think Phil Kemp is having a wonderful day and I bet Tyson Barrie is sitting on his Victoria deck waiting for the phone to ring….Beauty!
Raphael Lavoie is jacked and so is Matthew Savoie.
It’s all about opportunity and timing. Kemp has paid his dues in full it’s time we give him and Lavoie a real opportunity if not set them free. No more blocking a young man’s future either there in your plans are not. Broberg and his agent made it known to the league they weren’t happy Broberg and his agent could have had a feeling “hint-hint” a offer sheet was coming. Broberg agent comes out smelling like rose even if Broberg has a so-so injury riddled 2 years he’s still going to cash on his next contract regardless.
Lavoie was set free last season – 31 other teams had the opportunity to take him for free and decided against it.
True.
But the trouble is, the team was a little thin on D, and counting on Broberg to play 2RD, now that Ceci is a third-pairing guy and Desharnais has moved West. (Ekholm, Ceci, and Kulak will all be a year further into their 30s). The one glaring weakness on the team is 2RD, and the hope was that Broberg would fill it.
Maybe Ceci+2nd+3rd gets you a decent 2RD at the trade deadline. And maybe that’s the play.
But we hoped Broberg would fill 2RD for a decade.
The Oilers weren’t thin at defense. They were thin at forward. They finally have a 2nd line of useful NHL players.
This will lift all boats.
The team just lost the entire third line.
Foegele. McLeod. Holloway
speed and energy.
They are presently NOT better than last year.
It’s amazing how quickly the narrative shifts now. Some fans are actually crowing about $7M in cap savings from walking these two. Completely ignores the reality that both could be under contract now for $3M total according to Friedman.
Savings on money never spent. Fascinating world we live in.
That ship has sailed. We have to deal in present circumstances, not missed opportunities.
I would be fine with Broberg and Holloway on the roster at ~$2.5-3M, but that’s not an option now. I’m not okay with having them on the roster at $7M.
I believe they’ll find a way to afford Broberg. An 8Ov pick that developed in a straight line would likely be coming due for a $4M deal at the end of his ELC. The Oil slow played him and it didn’t work out as planned so now they have to pay anyway. The good news is he proved himself capable of a top 4 role at the toughest time of the season.
Players of this age and pedigree at this position are not available on the open market, hence why St Loo deems him worth it.
It’s going to be very hard to keep Bro without a lot of moves and also having less players available. Or an unexpected move, which is unlikely. This woof is as bad or worse than what got Talon canned
To be fair, you catastrophize everything the Oilers do.
My take is that I want the team to be smart, as it once was, when it also had a top of all time player and won Cups
This has been unsatisfying for a long while
To be fair as you said, if the team in the playoffs didn’t have to fade a top 4 D and use a raw player off hand, perhaps the outcome would have been different. Two times for one of them, as they were allegedly all in
I don’t put opinions up to agitate as some do, I think the time I spend backing up my position with numbers proves that
The Oiler management has for years have done such damaging things it hampers the greatness at hand. Holland was better but also did weak things, this turn was very damaging. All avoidable and not unexpected as so many commenters argued. Why don’t the brass see this?
If you think I’m just a drama addict show your work!
Also, as a fan it depends on how you see things and expectations
Teams that win more than one cup almost always have the elite players. We do, so for me expectations are high. It’s one thing if the players fail, another if the bosses can’t do a good enough job
The last two rounds it’s been management as I see it
If you are impassionate and looking at established facts that is one scenario
and 2 days ago most would have criticized Bowman for signing Broberg for $1.8MM…..
This is true. Me included.
True, but from his perspective he was held back and they still had to go to him for top 4 TOI when it counted
1.8 isn’t unreasonable. Same for Holloway. They saw the vets get faded. Given playoffs salary bumps it wasn’t the worst thing. And keeping much needed young players on board for an older team with a slim prospect pipeline near ready
Well, yeah.
This is precisely where the predatory nature of the offer sheet comes into play.
Offer a player more than he’s earned, but slightly less/above his value (which should be enough to compel his team to cut bait), and skip the investment phase of development to get a quality player with none of the hassle.
That’s why offer sheets make sense.
Let them both go to St.Louis but fill their equipment bags with cockroaches. Boom infestation in the St.Loo locker room!
I generally agree and raise you bedbugs and lice.
And crabs.
It strikes me that some of you have become so focused on St. Louis stealing two ‘maybe’ kids that you are letting the whole picture get out of whack. The Oiler signing priorities are Draisaitl and Bouchard. Get them signed first (in your head) and then revisit the Broberg/Holloway issue(s). Is there any money left to keep them? Be careful about blaming the past for their not being signed already. Wasted emotion. Draisaitl/Bouchard increases could be in the $12 million area.
While there are lots of opinions on both sides here, what would actually have to happen if we match, in terms of cap, for both players to be on the roster plus Kane when he’s back?
The rough math is that the Oilers would need to shave $3M between now and the start of the season, and another $2.5M or so when Kane comes back.
I think trading Ceci now is a no-brainer, and either Kulak or Jeff Skinner later.
Ideally Kane pulls a Kucherov and misses the entire regular season.
But perhaps logically Kulak is considered more valuable than Holloway and they let Dylan walk and run with Lavoie instead.
They would need to fit in the entire $5.125MM when Kane comes off LTIR>
I can’t see a way to keep both. Trading Ceci and Kulak they are still 1225 541 over at 21. The players they might waive that would likely clear don’t make enough. Janmark makes 1 450 000 and might clear, but on Puckpedia it still leaves 75 541
The exception is that they clear a higher salary of one of the NMC players or trade Arvi
Sports 1440 reporting Holland is on a fishing trip with Armstrong currently. Hooped
Holland probably urged Armstrong on, just to see if they’d blame him for the mishap.
All they need to do is take the picks, trade Ceci for the cap dump and they will have somewhere around $2.8M cap space to find a couple replacements for the two sheeters.
This is why it was a good move by st.louis. because we can’t in good conscience match.
Both players, plus Kane = over $12MM.
Add the ~$342k EDM is over the cap already and you’re talking roughly $13MM that needs accounting for when including Broberg, Holloway, and Kane on the roster going forward.
Trade as you will.
The Oilers are $7,225,541M over the cap at this moment, aren’t they?
That’s with Kane, Broberg and Holloway included as part of a 23-man roster.
I believe that’s true.
That’s the number I’m seeing at PuckPedia.
If you could trade Ceci and Kulak, both without taking cap back, we’d still be 1,225,541M over the cap.
I had posted yesterday that I did not believe either contract could be moved without an asset–assuming the goal is to just clear their contract off the books and not take any money back. Remember Kulak has an extra year left on his deal.
What you would have to package with those two players to move their contracts, I am not certain of the price.
Either way, then you would have to go to a 22 man roster to be at the cap.
If Kane is on LTIR, the Oilers are only 2.1 m over the cap.
I’m not sure whether there’d be a cost for moving them or not.
I’m not following you here. As you said, with those moves they would still be over the cap with 21 players.
And I’m not sure how you go from there to only being over by $2.1M with Kane on LTIR.
If your going to pay Broberg 4.7 for 2 years as a top 4 you better be sure he’s up to it. Broberg couldn’t even crack the roster as a 5-6. Matching this offer is a risky move. We have a excellent team for me Leon is the most important business. Leon must be signed by game 1. Will shall know more about the Kane situation there’s no need to panic things will work out If your smart about it which I do think Jackson is. Bowman is hopefully just a figurehead because he makes me nervous nevermind all the negativity a percentage of the fan base has of him.
100% agree.
He couldn’t crack the roster as a 5-6 and then took the job of one of your favorite d-men.
Dumb question. If the Oil suddenly decided Broberg was worth it, could they negotiate a 8x$5 to override the accepted St.Louis deal?
Ignore the numbers or the merit, I’m talking about the actual rule.
I think no. I believe they match or refuse no other option.
No, Broberg has a signed 2 year contract – end stop.
All an “offer sheet” is is a fancy word for NHL contract that has been signed by an RFA with a team other than its rightsholder – the contract is signed, sealed, deliver – vested. The Oilers have a right to take over the contract or received the scheduled compensation.
It’s either match or take compensation. If an RFA hits July first, what is different than UFA is that they can’t walk without the team being compensated. The current schedule is pretty weak IMO. A 2nd for a former 1st round pick being offered 4.5M+ isn’t enough to me
No.
The deals are the deals.
Sign or decline.
That’s it.
I think Broberg is about to pop and make 4,6M look like a good deal in about 50 games so where I stand on him is unsurprisingly to match, my idea from yesterday to negotiate a longer deal with Broberg apparently was “against the rules”, so we just have to swallow the bitter pill of paying him 4,6 instead of 1,8M which sucks but I think we’ll be kicking ourselves in a few months if the men at the top decides to let him walk. Imo there’s a pretty solid chance he’s the team’s third best D before the deadline.
During the playoffs there were quite a few plays where he took the safe option when he had room to jet, when out of the pressure cooker of a Stanley Cup push with the added confidence from being thrown into the Stanley Cup final and not only surviving but mostly doing well I think we’ll see a much more commanding and comfortable player. And when that happens I believe there will be fireworks.
I’d love to keep Holloway as well but I don’t see the same upside and the forward group is so much stronger with one really strong prospect in Savoie in the background so if the money only work for one of the players I’d go with Broberg. Despite the bigger price tag.
You’ve got better eyes than I do SP, but for what it’s worth I’ll say I completely agree. Small samples are the bane of talent valuations, but in this case, Broberg was working against an insanely good forechecking team and looked great every shift.
Ekholm is getting older too, and I’m worried about how d-men hit the age wall with little warning. I foresee Broberg as Bouch’s partner after ca. 2 years on the 2nd pairing.
I also see Holloway as a guy who, while great to cheer for and a useful player, isn’t someone who you shell out for on a cap-strapped contender. The list of players who come in shy on offense and then up their numbers is not a long one.
We sure could use a broberg on the left side in 2 years. But a broberg on the RS?
You know…so many critics don’t understand that the Blues are making what is actually a low stakes bet on Broberg,
With Torey Krug likely done, they have a gaping hole on LD which will allow Broberg to play on his natural side with a veteran partner.
Also of interest is that the Blues have already announced that Swede Alex Steen will be their next GM and I’m sure that played a role in Brobergs decision to sign the offer sheet.
If the bet doesn’t work out, I’m pretty sure the Blues could recoup a second round pick for Broberg.
Why would Broberg give a flying F about the nationality of his team’s GM?
He signed because his career earning to date are diddly dick and there is more individual opportunity in St. Loo.
Many players consider the environment they will be playing in before they sign.
Its a pretty good bet Steen was involved in the decision to ink Broberg.
Its a pretty good bet that being offered $2.7MM more (per season) than the asking price was the primary factor in signing.
I think the bigger factor was the extra $2.7MM per season the Blues offered over the yearly salary Broberg was asking from Edmonton of $1.8MM
Both can be true at the same time.
They can be but that doesn’t mean they are.
We’ll never know with certainty but I think its a safe presumption that Broberg would have signed the offer if the next GM wasn’t Swedish, if he was Canadian, American, Colombian, Ukrainian or Belarusian….
In your estimation, is Broberg a better player than any of the following:
OP (or anyone who knows), is there a way for Kane’s LTIR to help the Oilers cap over the season with Broberg and Holloway off the cap entirely?
If they let them go they are 354K over at 21 players with Kane on. Demote someone, LTIR Kane, and demote someone again when he’s back I suppose. If they let them go it’s not too complicated. The way to get some cap and more players is also trade Ceci, they will have nearly 3M to use without LTIR and can accrue cap space
Reminder for folks who keep suggesting EDM sign and then trade one or both players elsewhere. Or sign them at the same AAV for longer term. Or change the already signed deals, at all.
— Lowetide
Again, the current offer is Broberg and Holloway for about $7M in cap space with a couple of draft picks thrown in. We get to dump our $4.6M Broberg contract and our $2.3M Holloway contract. Pretty straightforward that you make that trade. There may be some Kevin Lowe kind of posturing going on about not letting STL get away with it. But that’s too good a deal to pass up.
Remorse over first round picks should be tempered with the understanding that first round picks you’re still waiting on at 22 are more likely to hurt you than not.
Success in hockey for many younger players is as much about opportunity as innate skill, because skill wise, many younger players are not that different. First rounders block second rounders and so on. Moving out two borderline first rounders gives an opportunity to others, picked later. Because the ones leaving are borderline, the bar isn’t that high for the ones that are left or are available via trade or free agency.
and yet if you keep Bro there’s your SCF blue line back to rock it out. No guesswork.
Did you not watch the Conference Final and Cup Final?
Broberg leapt ahead of Desharnais and Cody Ceci on merit. He’s 6.04, just turned 23, skates as well as anyone not named McDavid, and is about to fill the team’s most-needed gap on our 2nd pair.
The question really is, who do you believe in more: Broberg or Cody Ceci? I know where I’d spend my money.
https://x.com/WheatNOil/status/1823470246386393324
4) In the NHL he has generally had poor numbers when played against top comp via Puck IQ over the last 3 years.
5) Part of the reason he looked better in the playoffs is a very high PDO. I wouldn’t take that to the bank for this coming year.
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1823388309269217754
i get that there were mitigating factors (off-side, nurse), but i think at least some of why Broberg’s postseason was so impressive has something to do with his 109.8 PDO.
it is hard to look bad when your goalie saves 97% of the shots with you on the ice
I’m sure his fancy stats would look excellent against Anaheim and San Jose.
He was playing against the highest level of competition and by eye looked very good to the point where the coaching staff trusted him with Ceci’s minutes.
The coaching staff ran Kulak, Ceci and Broberg about evenly at 5v5. Ceci outplayed Broberg in every game Broberg was in the lineup for mostly due to special teams. Kulak and Bro played very close to the same which makes sense cause neither plays much special teams.
Broberg got fed when he was on the ice.
You can read their TOIs below.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/3068665
https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/2976843
https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/4565229
Yeah I dont get the idea that Broberg was thriving out there. Dallas was caving them regularly and Stu and 97 stole it. Top quality competition after playing AHL for the year to be fair but lets not kid ourselves that he was driving play out there.
I can’t blame Darnell for it all either. They aren’t a fit together imo.
Uh, pretty sure all of the Oilers defensemen played against the same teams as Broberg did. And yet, of the 7 defensemen the Oilers used in the playoffs, Broberg was
7th in CF%
7th in FF%
7th in SF%
1st in GF%
7th in xGF%
7th in SCF%
7th in HDCF%
There’s simply no way to use his playoff performance as justification for his $4.8M cap hit.
Im not ignoring the quantitative arguments and feel you Say It bring up valid points.
I’m with Swede in arguing for the qualitative assessment of his play, which was that he looked like a strong skater and capable 2nd pair option.
I think we can all agree he’ll be a better player after 50 games of 18+ mins / game, and he really only needs to be better than Ceci to merit his payday.
Broberg has the 77th highest salary of all defensemen in the league. That’s high 2nd pairing. Ceci is not the bar.
You are not comparing apples and oranges by adding games against weaker teams that Broberg did not play in.
This. Brobergs actuals will catch up to his expected. When they do is he worth 4.7? Probably not on the RS. Would haveoved to have seen him on the left during the season thiugh.
If we’re being fair, and looking at the 10 games Broberg played in, his underlying numbers are virtually identical across the board to those of Nurse, Kulak and Ceci.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=3&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=EDM&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=gpteam&fd=&td=&tgp=10&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
That’s not an argument that his playoffs justify $4.6M, but 7th in everything is also not an accurate representation of Broberg’s fancy stats in the Conference and Cup final.
That’s fair. However, nobody in the world is going to argue that Ceci and Kulak are worth $4.7M, and many don’t think Nurse is worth that either. So you’re proving my point, really.
Ha.
As I said, I was not attempting to argue Broberg’s playoff warrants that cap hit ($4.581M btw – not sure how the quoted number got higher).
His playoff numbers have been used against him all summer by some though. IMO it’s important to recognize that they were fully in line with the rest of the Oilers 2nd/3rd pairs in the games he played.
Hmmm, when you put it that way..
But that (probably) isn’t the real equation.
Unless Kane is out all year, retaining Broberg costs you Kulak AND Ceci (even if they do let Holloway walk).
And that’s a little bit of a different equation I think. 7/8D Stecher and Brown (or Kemp) just became 5/6D. Hmmm..
To me you want to trade Ceci, how much more playoff evidence is needed? That he and Nurse were above 50 GF% reg season lagged too much still. Bouch didn’t tank without Connor, there is a mismatch in second pair. Nurse has had better results and production. The top 4 don’t play exclusively with one F line
Then what does the team need ahead into the Duo’s next contracts? Doesn’t Bro have a higher ceiling than Kulak and fills a future hole? He does. Neither are that physical, Bro is already at Kulak’s level demonstrated in playoff usage
I was just noting that the equation is not simply Broberg or Ceci as Chambers suggested.
It’s a bit weird though that you’ve been questioning Broberg’s playoff performance/numbers all offseason, then in the last 2 days you’ve been simultaneously continuing to question while also saying that Broberg will be value for $4.6M. I dunno.
Anyway, I still don’t have a damn clue what I would do with these offer sheets. I don’t know what the right way forward is. I think it’ll probably be years before we’ve got an answer we’re confident in.
And as an aside, I do not at all agree that Stecher is a better partner for Nurse than Ceci is. Addition by subtraction is rarely a real thing, and we’ve only seen Stecher play for 7 games, with only 1 of them being against a playoff team.
I’ve been saying this for the last year+, but I would still trade Kulak before Ceci when considering the makeup of the team.
So much of the decision hinges on what the team thinks of Broberg and his potential.
It is an interesting conversation because right here in River City the conversation has polarized to an extent between the stats crowd and the eye test gang – both off of small sample size. 😎
Yeah, that’s most of the story I think.
And most everything seems to become polarized these days. There isn’t really a 3rd option in the States, but in most other realms a middle ground does exist if folks want it.
There is an old argument concerning human nature and how few prefer ‘love of the good’ versus ‘love of one’s own’ that is germane to that observation but perhaps too tedious and annoying for most to care about.🥸
Hehe, I don’t actually know the (very) old argument, but will guess that ‘too tedious and annoying for most to care about’ describes one of the sides reasonably well.
I don’t think that I’ve said this new contract is value. Just that given the situation he is the one you’d want and necessary ahead. I also don’t think Bro is going to work RD, may be passable
Nurse needs a different partner and Stecher is closer to a better fit because he is more assertive, quicker playing and moves the puck better. He is also too small
In the end letting this happen is so bad
You said at 8:07pm yesterday “Both will be worth the contracts just for the Oilers and there slow timid approach it bit them in the butt, yet again.”
And at 8:16 you said “Bro is worth the contract but I’m not sure he is what they need really”
Yes, Stecher is too small. And he also hasn’t played top 4 since his first few years in Vancouver. Even on mediocre to bad teams.
There are other ways to get compliant for a month or two and Kane can be traded as of February 28th if necessary. It would probably cost to do so.
Lots of older players on this team, though. Injuries are a thing with guys over 30 particularly.
True enough. And I hadn’t realized his NMC lifted before the deadline.
Who can forget Broberg in that legendary 10 game stretch? I blacked out after the Reinhart goal. Don’t remember anything before or after. So, yeah, you’re going to have to tell me about it.
You wrote with no irony “Broberg leapt ahead of Desharnais”… but then threw Ceci in to make it more convincing even though Broberg was on the ice less than Ceci. (Appreciated the 6.04, reminded me of looking for a man in finance, 6.05, blue eyes)
All that adds up to you’re going to spend in the neighborhood of what the Stars are going to spend on Harley. To play Broberg on the right side? And you’re going to have that on the books in the year Drai and Bouchard get paid, as opposed to the one year of Ceci… Nope, I don’t believe what you believe.
Maybe, but what about a pump’n’dump to gain more of a return? Surely you don’t think Broberg’s nominal value is a 2nd round pick…
If you and me know it’s a pump’n’dump, other people are going to know too. And I have no idea how you pump Broberg by playing him on his offside. And with who? With Nurse? has to be if Bro is 2RD. Nurse is in need of a serious redemption tour this season. You’d have two super tense situations trying to fit in together. I think we’d be more on the dump side in that case, having to move out salary. Other teams are going to know.
Personally I would move Kulak and play Broberg 3LD. I know there are those here who disagree.
Again, it depends on how the team sees Broberg’s ceiling. I just think a 2nd is too little to not take the full season to assess.
For me it’s the loss of equity, a long standing Oiler problem. You need to get more than a 2nd and 3rd for them especially after the playoff showcase, or you bleed out like Holland did. Bro was considered the best D in the A
I don’t like that they were blindsided, as opposed to making decisions of how they wanted to go
It’s been reported that Holloway and Broberg would have known about the offers and held out from signing extensions. That they (and their agents) neglected to let JJ know.
Both players, while unsigned, are RFAs and under EDM’s control from a contractual standpoint.
Isn’t that interference?
Nope. Not if it happened after July 1st. At that point the ‘free agents’ part of ‘restricted free agents’ allows them to negotiate or sign with anybody they choose.
Did some digging… RFAs can negotiate/sign offer sheets elsewhere, and the parent club retains first right of refusal.
Makes sense, thanks.
So this was housekeeping that should have been done in the first half of the year.
Would be interesting to know if the agents were negotiating prior and advised the two to not sign as a better offer was pending. That would be interference, although that alone ensures that we’ll never know for sure.
Agents ‘bend’ the rules all the time imo.
Impossible to prove if the two people in the conversation keep their mouths shut and there is no incentive to do otherwise.
All those UFA contracts signed one minute after they are legal are a pretty good clue this goes on all the time.
Yep, your post says exactly what I was thinking. I’m just kind of pissed off it went against us this time. While acknowledging it’s actually worked in our favour often in the past, and likely to continue to do so in the future.
No, as of July 1 they were free agents and able to negotiate a contract with any team.
All an “offer sheet” is is a contract, a regular NHL contract for which the prior rightsholder has the right of fist refusal to match or receive the listed compensation.
I’m sure RFAs are offered contracts all the time but they are just rarely signed. I would presume that most RFAs would take the contract terms to their current team and use them as leverage.
Thanks OP, you’ve perfectly said the unsaid of what I was trying to say.
It continues to be very annoying to me that, 30 hours ago, the Oilers were trying to figure out some cap issues with the expectation that Broberg and Holloway would be the roster at a combined $2.5MM (apx) and, now, if they are both on the roster its almost triple that.
I can’t even fault the Oilers management in many ways, I mean, with Broberg, its just such a massive overpay to market – I mean, the player was asking for $1.8MM (Friedman’s report) and 30 hours ago most here would think that Bowman overpaid if he signed him to that for 2 years.
Just a crappy no-win situation here.
Blues are assholes!
I know it is unrealistic, but could Broberg have said to management, “the blues offered me $4.5 per year, but I will take a discounted $3.5 for longer term to remain an Oiler to compete for the cup”? That way he gets a good raise and shows he is willing to sign for a discounted amount like the others?
This is why you just take the picks and walk away.
The Oilers ran a near historic points percentage when Holloway and Broberg were in the Bake and now they’ve added two first shot scorers for Leon to feed.
The team is better on paper right now than it was at the end of the playoffs. Can’t forget that.
Can’t forget that a 2nd and a 3rd is basically nothing. Sign them and deal with them next summer.
Nah walk away. they aren’t worth that money. There’s no stats that suggest it and even the hopium is needed in a hefty dose to suggest either player could land there.
The Oilers just traded away McLeod who made less than Holloway and who was a better hockey player by far for magic beans. Don’t undo that work by overpaying these two now.
Jeff Skinner can score 40 goals and signed for $3 million and he’ll lap Holloway’s career point totals by U.S. Thanksgiving.
The picks are deadline capital. Easy peasy.
The most straight forward way is trade Ceci, let Bro go. 21 on the roster and 605K in cap with Kane on. They could LTIR Kane and get another cheap D, demote Janmark when Kane is back until playoffs. Or if they think the farm can back up the D get another cheap F
To keep them both, trade Ceci and Kulak, demote Perry and Ryan, elevate Pedersen, then LTIR Kane. But when Kane is ready they would have to decide how to get compliant again. Demoting Janmark still leaves them 75.5K over and a 20 roster. Can’t demote Holloway because he will likely get claimed. Or Bro, if they have cap the Blues will just claim him. Maybe Kane would do a stint in the A for conditioning until playoffs, but he might get claimed
I think it’s unlikely they keep both because of the structure of the roster
Maybe I misunderstood, but it seems like you suggested trading away Ceci AND letting Broberg depart for STL.
Except if we sign them it cripples our roster for this year. Walk one or both.
I don’t give high level executives a lot of slack. They are in the top hockey league in the world, no excuses. Particularly Jackson, fresh off being an agent. He should have been aware by now that these two young fellas were not content, what that meant, and heard alarm bells from what Armstrong said
Successful sheets are rare, but leaving yourself so vulnerable attracts it. It’s not like they don’t get offered, they just get matched
If they were willing to sign at those lower levels you do that all day long. Because of risk and need. They need the speed and youth in the line up and had developed those players, and those players were able to do good things in the playoffs, are ready, even if not perfect
Moving Ceci would have allowed the 3M. A no brainer after another poor playoffs from him, I’m not sure what they are looking at to be so enamoured. Moving Kulak and Ceci and signing the two at 3M would have made a 20 roster with 2.645M in cap space with Kane counting
Find a F and D, keep some cap for operating flexibilty. If they can’t find a 6/7 D and 13 F they are in the wrong business. No it’s not ideal moving players, but the Panthers had change on their team after a Cup, it’s the way it is. That’s what I would have done
— of course we will never know but perhaps they were aware of this and have their contingency plan in place.
— I would find it hard to believe that they wouldn’t be aware. Sure all us muppets its a bombshell but they have been presumably negotiating for awhile.
— This isn’t akin to walking into shocked boss office with a letter of resignation because you had just been poached by a competitor IMO
As a keen observer of this franchise over the decades, I would caution against assuming ‘awareness’ in any case.
Broberg and Holloway being signed to offer sheets at exactly those amounts should have been identified as a possibility and contingencies in place for exactly this situation. For all we know, they have anticipated this possibility and would have explored options. They probably (or should) know where they can offload Ceci, for example.
Even if they know what they are going to do like matching one or both, they aren’t going to announce it until the very last day. Let St Louis sit wondering what will happen.
Thing is, i dont truly believe Broberg is a top 4 RHD. Maybe a top 4 LHD, but we’ve never seen him there. He’s a bandaid in the secind pairing on the RS. In the small sample size of the playoffs, what was the discrepancies between expected values and actual. Will those catch up to him over time? We needed him on the left side. But paying him 4.5 to play RS? If we were to sign him, we need to get rid of Kulak and Ceci, and replace the two with an actual right hand dman.
Holloway should be signed to that contract, but add 2 more years to it. It will be value yet.
Walk Broberg.
Thats this not so greatly informed fans decision. Certainly there are smarter people in the room though.
Can’t add two years to Holloway deal.
I truly believe management was aware of the risk of offer sheets on both these players and did give it considerable weight in their decisions. Where the surprise cam was in the AMOUNT of the offers, especially for Broberg. I think if they had been offer sheeted at 2 and 2.5 instead of 2.3 and 4.5, I think we would have swallowed hard but matched. At these prices, which are ludicrous for the player’s track records so far, we walk on Broberg and probably Holloway as well. If their was no offer sheets and we had signed these men at 2.3 and 4.5m , they would have run management out of town on a rail within a year’s time as the birds came home to roost on extensions for Drai, Bouch and eventually McD.
Side bar: just started travelling east of Montreal in Canada for the first time in my life. What a beautiful country from coast to coast. Incredible. Just ate something called a crab. Delicious. I am used to my crabs being itchy.
So now we’re blaming Holland? Sure why not. He’s made nothing but mistakes in his 5 years. He took the team from the dead and made the playoffs every year and came within a goalpost of winning Stanley. Sure Campbell was a mistake along with some others. But where we were 5 years ago to now. I for one have enjoyed the ride and look forward to the future. JJ leaks out (funny there hasn’t been a leak in a year) that Holland was instructed to sign them but didn’t? And then he doesn’t when he’s in charge and signing players all over the place? Did he not instruct Stan to sign them.
Bush league once again. Which we didn’t have for 5 years of Holland.
I assume you are referring to this:
https://oilersnation.com/news/ken-holland-was-apparently-instructed-by-top-levels-of-the-oilers-organization-to-sign-holloway-and-broberg-during-the-season
An obvious effort to spin and blame the guy going out the door.
Not specifically that story but yes.
I believe this was a shrewd move by the agent. Nothing more and nothing less. Kudos to him – which is to get his players the best deal (money and opportunity). And credit the players for letting the agent do his job.
Both players wanted more opportunity from the Oilers over the years and both were blocked by coaching and GM decisions.
I would suspect this leak is related to Stan Bowman not being a popular hire and this happened just shy of three weeks into him getting the job. I suspect that the Offer sheets were in the works for a good portion of that time and would be why he was nowhere near closing a deal. This just seems to be trying to cover for the new guy even though it’s not actually his fault.
How about the leak about Bowman in the first place?
Or the leak about Kane’s injuries before the playoffs started? Or the leaks about Kane writ large in the winter?
How about the leaks around Draisaitl’s contract negotiations?
Bush league indeed. It is the same feeling I got when I watched the awkward press conference where they introduced Knoblauch (which obviously ended up being the right call), but it didn’t seem like they had prepared for it all and nobody was on the same page and we didn’t know who was in charge.
Say what you will about Kenny’s moves, but he was all class and seemed to build a positive culture where players wanted to play and people would want to work. I hope they can keep it that way.
Yes It would be a shame if they go back to the old way
Glad we have Mr. $9.5 million Seth Jones contract at the helm for these two decisions. That brings me comfort.
Poor GMs make for strange comforts.
I will say 99.9% of the people who are ragging on Broberg and Holloway for taking the offer sheets are being as disingenuous as they can possibly be. I believe there is .1% of people that might not have signed the sheet, the rest of us would be jumping for joy and signing as fast as they could get that sheet in front of us.
Dont act all high and mighty when you know that getting a 300-400% and 100-150% raise would be something all of us would jump at to do the same job we’re doing now.
The Oilers need to sign them and accept that they didn’t sign them when they had the chance. Not a single member of the Oilers team or staff should or will hold it
against them.
Personally I don’t believe either of these men want to be an Oilers player. They had a choice, play for the likely ’25 SC playoff contender with pay commensurate with their talent, or get paid BIG, early. They chose BIG money; patience means something, both will likely have long NHL careers, with plenty of opportunity to get paid BIG.
I certainly don’t deny their right to greed, I just wish they didn’t. Considering these 2 short-term over-payments, their following contract will be a burden to whoever they play for.
This is a bad take. Edmonton has blocked them from opportunity. Every year you don’t establish yourself as an nhl regular the window to their dream as an nhl player closes a little. Hell they were asking Broberg to play his off side to protect their 9 million dollar defense. If he fails at that his career could be over. He signed with a team who believes in him, paid him, and is likely to put him in an opportunity to succeed. How can you blame a guy for that.
I pretty much agree. Somebody offers you 3X your actual value to leave your current job – I think most of us would take it. If Broberg were being paid 10% more by STL than we were offering, then sure, rag on him for disloyalty. But 300% more? It’s his good luck and our bad luck. The CBA allows it. STL may regret it in the end, but the CBA allows GMs to do things like that.
Sure, if a job is a job is a job.
But opportunity is critical. Where are you heading, what is the future, what is the goal. Bonuses, pension, etc
In those types of jobs you do have to consider all factors.
I am in full agreement with you while also recognizing that yesterday was a difficult day for me to ignore the realities of the obscene amount of money that is now lavished on professional athletes.
From private luxury boxes to five designer wedding dresses, professional sports has evolved into a class segregated structure that is funded by the average joe’s willingness to put up with exorbitant prices on everything from tickets to jerseys to beers, and rink boards crammed with ads. Google PSLs for NFL fans. That will be the next massive cash grab for the NHL.
The Edmonton Oilers are essentially a wealth transfer scheme that moves the money from the middle to the upper class with hockey as the carrot.
Seeing a hockey wife preening for Vogue publicity is not a great look for a game that is increasingly becoming the playground of the rich even at the grass roots level.
I will always love this game and this team. But personally, I’m not falling for the grift anymore.
Oh, I would not assume that nobody in the org will hold it against them.
Thet will say “dude, couldn’t you have leverage the potential offer sheet on the table to get up to 1.6 1.8 or so?
They will be some absolutely hold it against them.
But if a player says I did try to at least get a raise and they were just grinding me, tell me I was worse that so and so……..and that is the point where other players will accept the decision.
Thing is, it’s been regular operating procedure to go cheap and pay the stars. That can also built resentment.
Got to try and keep everyone happy and it’s not easy.
The right move is to let both go. Broberg is a square peg with Ekholm signed for 2 more years. He’s not physical, he’s not going to run PP1. If he has an upside, we can’t take advantage of it. Holloway? Not physical. No special teams. 18 points in 89 games for his NHL career.
First rounders who haven’t clearly established themselves at 22 are maybes. All potential and future payoff. KY, JP are good reminders that these players mostly turn out to be maybe nots. Don’t spend excess cap on this type. Their value is that they’re cheap. Once they stop being cheap…
holloway is not physical?
The guy trailed only sam bennet for hits in the playoffs..
Physical in the dropping gloves sense. Or noticeable in scrums sense.
None of which has anything to do with winning hockey games
Which games? SC winners seem to commit their share of felonies on their way to the title.
I disagree. You keep them and trade them next summer.
It is too late in the off season to replace them. This will just speed up what the Oilers should already have done and force them to move older players with younger players.
Long term as an Oiler is undoubtedly not in the cards for either of them but you don’t give away two first rounders for nothing – and that is really what the compensation is.
Sign them. Move Kulak or Ceci. Take the time Kane is out to figure out what else can be done – lots of players get injured during the season and deal with next year’s cap problems next summer.
Yep. I agree. Honestly, I think Kulak could get a pretty solid return. Good contract for a good player.
You’re not giving away two first rounders for nothing. Now that the offer has been made, you’re trading them for about $7M in cap space. That’s a fantastic trade. Holloway’s on the 4th line and Broberg is on the 3rd pair. Those aren’t difficult roster spots to fill. Broberg would remain a sub-20 minutes a night D on our team. At a $4.6M price tag. Who’s the counter party for that trade next summer? Same situation with Holloway. Another year with us will drive down his value. He just won’t have the opportunity to do better on this roster.
The whole replace older with younger is overblown. The older players on this team are better than the younger players on this team. In Holloway’s case, much better. And whatever Broberg’s upside, he won’t hit it on this team, not with Nurse and Ekholm ahead of him. Older players decline from a peak that most younger players never come close to reaching.
None of this is true Georgexs. Both Broberg and Holloway can be traded next summer for prospects or more appropriate players. The cap space is moot for the coming season. Kane is going on LTIR. A competent GM can trade Kulak or Ceci for something and then trade Broberg for something more next summer if he chooses to. Holloway is worth more than a 3rd next summer and there really is no down side to keeping him for this season.
If the Oilers are hoping to go on a long playoff run they need depth and if Kane is starting the season on LTIR there is no way to accumulate cap space to add. Keep the assets they have for the season and deal with the situation next off season is the play imo.
I read None of this is true… imo.
Except you’re pigeonholing both players as if they can’t move up on merit.
The widely held expectation is that 2RD is Broberg’s to lose. He’s already slotted in the top-4, not 3rd pair as you’re saying.
Similarly, Holloway will (would) get his reps in the top-6 with slumps/injury/merit/opponent throughout the season.
I’m inclined to cut bait on both, but what defmn says about playing them for a year and trading them for better value than a 2nd and a 3rd absolutely holds water. The ol’ pump and dump.
Are Broberg and Holloway worth their contracts next year? Yeah, probably not, but that’s not the right way to frame this. Are they worth it longer term, either in value for the Oilers on-ice or in future trades? Then the answer is likely yes.
So, you hold them and reassess next year. And I also agree it’s a very good thing if this forces the Oilers to move off of Ceci, Kulak and eventually Kane. None of those guys are going to be around past their current contracts. You want to move off of these types of players sooner than later.
So where is this mystery $7M in cap space you claim to have by letting Holloway & Broberg walk because as far as I know the team is capped out for the season.
If they don’t sign them they are still over the cap. That would change if Kane goes on LTIR but that can’t happen until the first day of the season.
At that point the team would have about $4.77 M in cap space – but only if Kane is out for the season. And if I understand the CBA correctly there is no cap accrual if a player is on LTIR to start the season. If the surgery has been scheduled, as reported, there is no way he passes his medical to start camp so there is no way to have him on the roster through TC.
So the team now has $4.77 M but can’t spend it on trading for other players unless Kane is gone until playoffs – which, again, nobody seems to think is likely.
They have internal options on the team for those cap dollars. They can easily ice a 23 man roster for the season using such players as Lavoie or Pederson, Philp or Kemp and return them when Kane comes back. I don’t see any of those players being superior options to Holloway or Broberg. You may see it differently.
If by some turn of fortune Bowman was certain that Kane would be gone for the season he could go shopping for replacements with his $4.77M.
I find it unlikely that anybody here would be pleased with the return. It is hard to make trades for significant players once the season begins.
As for Broberg and Holloway lessening their trade value during the season what are you suggesting? That Broberg might only fetch a 3rd rounder and Holloway a fourth? I doubt two first round draft picks would fall any further than that no matter how badly they played for at least ten non playoff teams looking to bolster their roster on a one year gamble so I don’t see the down side to be particularly egregious.
On the other hand the team might want some depth for injuries and a playoff run so to me I hold on to the players and use the CBA to its fullest extent to juggle the numbers for as long as I can.
There is no need to do anything drastic other than move Ceci or Kulak before the season begins. I think it is prudent to use all the time the situation allows before making final decisions and 7 days for decisions that can haunt you for 10 years is too short. IMO.
Maybe I don’t get it. How is a cap problem that’s difficult to navigate without Broberg and Holloway signed for $7M made any easier to navigate with Broberg and Holloway signed for $7M? I guess you’re seeing Broberg and Holloway as roster improving moves we wouldn’t be able to otherwise make. But if Kane coming off of LTIR during the season prevents any roster improving moves even without Broberg and Holloway, how do they get cap compliant when he comes back with Broberg and Holloway signed for $7M (your roster improving moves)? Doesn’t it take Ceci, Kulak, plus, I don’t know, Arvidsson… or Janmark and Brown?
Holloway has scored 18 points in 89 games. Forget 10 years, he’s not going to haunt me for 10 mañanas. And you’re proposing Broberg be traded next summer, presumably to accommodate the Drai and Bouch contracts. You’re not even suggesting he’s the next coming of Lidstrom. Looks like we’ll both get over it when he leaves.
For me it comes down to putting off moves with long term implications for as long as possible so as to give time for possibilities to reveal themselves.
To get to Kane coming back it is only necessary to move Ceci or Kulak. Neither is impossible to replace next off season if Broberg turns out to be unable to justify keeping him. For me that isn’t a settled question so I put that off on the basis that the downside of keeping him is much less than the downside of him ‘popping’ on another team – as OP likes to say.
If Kane is ready by January I can send him for a stint in Bakersfield for a week or so. Who know who comes down with a bad back at that point. Maybe Kane has a setback on his rehab. Maybe Arviddson hurts a shoulder.
Lots of things can happen if you take all the time you can take to give yourself opportunity for a better solution.
That is what I would do. Delay, delay, delay until you run out of options and I don’t think having to trade Ceci or Kulak for a prospect or draft pick is too much of a price to see if there is a better way out of the box.
A lot of maybes. Still don’t understand your math. You bring back Kane. You only moved Ceci or Kulak. And you have Broberg and Holloway on the roster. You’re still millions over the cap. Fixed by a timely clubbing to Arvidsson’s shoulder. Who does this? Successfully? VGK?
Broberg is blocked on his natural side on this team. He could be a great player on his natural side on another team. Who knows?
That’s the key there – value contracts vanished.
The org was likely counting on having these two on big value contracts for not just this coming season but perhaps next season as well.
These contracts are no longer value contracts and bleed in to the Bouchard/Drai extension years and that’s a big damn deal.
I’ve been positing that the Oilers can re-sign the big 3 without moving out Nurse, for example, as long as they were prudent with not over-capping the bottom of the roster.
Broberg would be playing 2nd pair, most likely, so not the bottom of the roster but, at the same time, he is still non-established and all of a sudden is a legit 2nd pairing cap hit.
Its a real tough spot.
Neither of these contracts affect Bouchard or Draisaitl’s contracts until next summer so why not keep them and move them then. Surely they can do better in a trade at that time than a 2nd and a 3rd?
Maybe.
Of course, if they have bad seasons, then trade partners may not want those contracts for any price.
To my mind Bro has shown too much to think he’s a bust. His value will only grow imo.
It may not quickly outstrip the salary on offer, but I’d say he remains a saleable asset for some time yet.
We know they can’t trade them for a year and, although I’ll need to confirm, I think its a calendar year (and not a contract year) which would make them untradeable until mid-August next year.
Past the draft and early free agency, material trades are more rare.
It is a calendar year. I checked the cba. I agree the timing is not good but there are ways around it including the old ‘future considerations’ clause.
When have future considerations ever vested? Honestly asking.
Giving them away for nothing would be literally worthless compared to the paltry picks + cap space they can get this week. Unless you think EDM adequately can’t fill their roles this season.
It sucks that this happened to our team, but I absolutely love the idea of offer sheets being utilized. For the life of me, I never understood why we didn’t see 3-4 every summer. I know the unwritten rules, blah blah blah…. but it’s a totally legitimate way to improve your team.
I agree. Avg GM last like what 3 years. The penalty in draft picks is pretty meager. A 2nd rounder for a young D top 10 pick. That’s not very much
I think most GM’s/owners regard it as predatory. That it only exists as a concession to the PA that they had to agree to in order to get the CBA signed or avoid legal challenges.
To me that is the general view within the league. Not to mention that many GM’s will be of the opinion that only failing GM’s trying to save their own job would use such a tactic – a view that history of its use supports to an extent.
I’m curious about what you could get for Ceci + a 2nd and 3rd round pick. If the Oilers walked from both players could the draft assets be used to significantly upgrade the 2RD spot?
I’m not sure there are many top 4 RHD on the market, everyone needs one
There are always players available at the deadline.
And the price is always very high.
Meh.
Tanev with double retention cost 2nd + 4th + C prospect.
Hanifin with double retention cost 1st + 3rd + 5th.
Both are significantly better player than Broberg, and significantly cheaper with all the retention.
The 2nd acquired from St. Louis will be a very nice arrow in the quiver come TDL.
Neal Pionk
I’ve been banging that drum a while, going to depend on how WPG is looking at near the deadline. Chevy has pushed in all his chips to try and win with an aging core.
Further, EDM is already ~$342k over the cap. Pionk makes $2.625MM more than Ceci, so either more salary would have to go out, or WPG would have to retain. Probably both, likely in separate deals. So the cost would be greater than just Ceci + the 2nd/3rd from STL.
If teams can grab an 8OV prospect for just a 2nd rounder and a 2 year overpay, it’s actually astonishing to me that offer sheets aren’t used more often to poach top prospects.
This practice is pretty predatory and if it were more widely adopted would absolutely drive up the costs for pending RFAs.
I appreciate the league is trying to foster competitive balance and the PA wants a more open market, but there has to be some protections in place for a team to retain its young core imo. It seems the only protection right now is an unspoken gentleman’s agreement between the GMs. How long can that last?
Agreed. The NBA has more protections for teams to sign their own players. The NBA in general has a lot more going on with their CBA
There is lots of protection for teams. They can offer the player a contract that the player feels is appropriate to their skills, their personal and professional aspirations, their experiences with the team etc. And they can do it in a timely fashion. The player risks having fewer options if they don’t take that offer. Like sitting out a year or two, or going to another league. Or being left off any roster in the NHL. Or not playing hockey at all. Or, as in this case, being offered and accepting an offer from another team that has is paying for that right to offer.
It may be more than a 2-year overpay, because the guy has to be qualified at 10% more, or re-signed long term (at presumably more than that).
Then again, given the contracts handed out to guys like Owen Power and Brock Faber, GMs today don’t seem too worried about that.
Forward thinking GMs are locking up their RFAs early.
Can you imagine what a bargain Power and Faber will be if they continue their progress and the cap goes over $100 million?
Broberg and Holloway are not in the same league as Faber and Power. Locking up core players early is the play. The Oil did that with 97 and 29. Should’ve identified Bouch early but other mismanagement stopped that.
The least painful options I can come up with are these. A big problem being many players they might waive to be compliant aren’t low risk to not get claimed, and of course those that likely won’t have low salaries
If you let them go, trade Ceci and use Ralph they can not LTIR Kane and would have 2.12M in cap and 20 players. They could try to find a couple of low cost players and accumulate cap
They could trade Kane and Ceci and keep the two kids, would have 1.149M in cap and 21 players
Nothing else seems to make sense. Other than a miracle Nurse trade
One other thing Friedman said they I forgot to mention – his belief is that Kane will be having surgery. Delay was related to figuring out which surgeon to do it and then finding time in his summer schedule. Sounds like that has been set.
He was clear that was not to say that he’ll be out all season – that is unknown but at least that can can be kicked down the road.
And his NM clause reverts to 16 teams on February 28 according to Puckpedia should management decide that it is a way to go.
Not my first choice but good choices don’t appear to be on the table at the moment. Injuries could change that.
Broberg is going to be a headache to deal with his entire earning career, cut bait.
Keep Holloway but burn Flames merch infront of his stall daily.
Knowing that he’ll be a headache, use the offer sheet salary as cost certainty and move on from him one year later. There’s no doubt in my mind he’ll be tradable.
Completely ridiculous that the new regime is throwing shade at Holland over this. Are we supposed to just conveniently ignore JJ has had several weeks this summer to get this done and was too busy with his shiny new toys?
Well Holland didn’t sign either Broberg or Holloway, didn’t move on from Ceci, killed a bunch of space with Campbell’s contract. Holland could of traded Broberg several times before this summer, he drafted and gave Broberg everything he wanted at first, built up Broberg’s entitlement then didn’t give him a spot in the top 6 or sign the man. He ignored trade requests while rolling into the playoffs with the same dcorps year after year.
The signings Jackson made are still shiny and awesome.
He should have traded Ceci Kulak and Foegele, used Bro and DH, signed Bouch long
It’s a pretty poor culture that blames the employee who is no longer there for shit not getting done in the here and now.
Imagine calling up Telus when your Internet goes out and being told it’s the fault of an installer who no longer works there. Bush league.
JJ can’t duck not doing deals while waiting to hire Bowman, capping out making an offer sheet more likely (and this one was nastily structured perfectly to be very hard for the Oilers to deal with, having so many trade clauses) but this and most of the other messes are mostly on Holland
Nurse’s bad deal, Campbell, having all of the higher contracts with NMCs, not understanding the time had come to either sign or trade them, etc etc. If the asks were really 1.8 and 1.2 you do it. You have understand that you can’t keep all players, even if you like them, because you need to develop and use your young cheaper players
Jackson could have made the call to move a D for cap. I find it hard to believe no agent pals gave him a heads up about this coming. Maybe not
In any management succession plan, you’re going to put limits on what the outgoing guy can do so the incoming guy can architect his own blueprint. The fates of Broberg and Holloway would presumably carry far beyond Holland’s tenure and should have been squarely under Jackson’s purview.
Not getting these two signed is 100% on Jackson and Bowman. If they continue to throw shade at Holland for dropping the ball as he was heading out the door, I’ll definitely lose some respect for this management team.
You may feel rich in defensemen until the good ones are gone, lose their edge, age out, or get injured.
This is the same team that traded Hall for Larsson, and gave Nurse $9Mx8, both out of necessity.
Matching on Broberg is a must because filling his spot won’t be cheap or easy. If you don’t believe me just ask Joel Edmondson.
Hundred percent. The move on Bro is to match and deal with next year next year.
The other move would’ve been to bundle any of DH+Bro+Ceci for a truly stellar, young RHD with term. Or lock down these kids sooner. Oh well.
Excellent point. Ask a team like Nashville, that was so deep in d-men they started trading them off (Jones, Weber, Ekholm, etc.). Then you Subban age out fast (injury) and they thought Dante Fabbro would step in and be a difference maker.
Didn’t happen and they are thin on that end w/a 34 year old Josi. One day the grass isn’t green so be careful what you ask for.
Holy Hell Friedman with a dump of info on a surprise 32 Thoughts this morning, including:
Broberg would not re-sign during the season. He wanted to see how things would play out through the season.
Broberg was asking for $1.8MM from the Oilers. Holloway around $1.2MM.
One of the selling points from STL on Broberg was they would be able to play him on his natural left side (I believe a massive overpay was the main selling point).
STL was very strategic – obviously the offer amounts and each being $1 below the next comp threshold but, also (1) they wanted to get both done, not just one and (2) the timing was to ensure the Oilers couldn’t trade for a player that had filed for arb which would open up a second buyout window.
Dan MacKinnon, AGM in New Jersey was very far in the Oilers GM process and was one of the finalists.
Broberg and his agent were very clever. They endured a year in the AHL, foregoing an NHL salary, showed very well in the playoffs, then stuck to their guns holding an offer sheet as leverage.
The Oilers failed to cultivate loyalty with this player. They have a year to acclimate Broberg into a top-4 role and get him on-board with being part of the future.
If not Broberg is just starting his career arc as a top-4 NHL D, whether in Edmonton or STL, and he’s not going backward.
There is absolutely no guarantee that Broberg doesn’t misstep and land backwards.
Skinner stopped 97% of the shots when Broberg was on the ice, talk about small sample sizes and pdo ponies.
Oilers allowed Broberg to stay in Sweden until 2021 at his request, gave him 23 games then 46 games his first 2 seasons in North America, he couldn’t grab a spot and beat out any of the vets ahead of him.
Oilers offered him plenty of loyalty.
Broberg was also a whiner in sweden about his ice time iirc.
You have a source for this, or is it just a drive by character assassination attempt?
I’ve followed his career pretty closely and don’t recall this one at all.
If you watch the young man play, you’ll notice he’s physical, skates very very well, and is now confident enough to assert himself at the NHL level against top competition.
Broberg is the goods. Doug Armstrong knows this.
If Broberg fails next season his contract is next to impossible to sell to anyone. An overpriced left handed defenseman. Didn’t Columbus just buy out a RD that was the next best thing in the Seth Jones deal? They’ll have to add valuable pieces for anyone to take it on. Just what an organization needs on its hand when trying to resign the best player in the league. Either a loss in assets or more dead buy out cap space.
I watched all his playoff games, thought he played well enough. Lots of players have had these attributes and still failed, especially defenders.
Because of his age, his buyout for the 2nd season would be only 1/3 of the $4.8M, over 2 years … so $800K x 2.
Hardly a showstopper if worse comes to worse.
Action Jackson sure is trying to lay this on Holland.
Stauffer’s hit piece is funny. Yes Bob, I’m sure the Highest Ups had Broberg and Holloway on its mind when the team was ripping off a 20 game win streak to claw back from the Dead.
Nothing but Drama, Drama, Drama since the Burlington Boy came to town. Just like in the Red Wine Summit Days.
Ok now that my smooth brain understands how offer sheets work I think you have to match for both. Oilers cannot afford to lose to young and fast players. Move Ceci and other necessary shit.
Learning lesson for the brain trust. Always sign your own young guys before spending money on outsiders. Maple leafs learned their lesson with Tavares now we are learning ours.
Signing a bunch of vets to value deals is far different then signing Tavares for the farm.
Ignoring the rest of the roster to appease your pain in the ass rfa’s will lead to a bunch of amazing lessons for sure.
Skinner got the Holloway and Broberg money.
I really don’t see those vets managing Stanley cup energy for 82 games.
They need a boost. I think the roster needed more youth, energy, speed, before the offer sheets even arrived.
Also, Draisaitl.
He’s under negotiation, what type of spill over can occur here?
And Drai does not tolerate fools or those not willing to pay the price. He will run off rookies if they are just out for themselves.
Like he was not out for himself negotiating an $8 million deal after his ELC expired? He took max and it would be the height of hypocrisy to suggest a guy who made less than 10% of what Drai did last year should take one for the team. This is business and everyone understands that except for a few fans who think loyalty means anything or will be rewarded (Ryan McLeod says hi).
Ryan McLeod is so overrated, it is best he moves along. I have no idea how you can criticize Draisaitl contract. Absolute bargain.
may point still stands. Players know much more than fans. If Broberg plays like crap after grabbing the money, he’ll hear about it.
He didn’t criticize Drai’s contract but noted that, coming off his ELC, Drai dug in for max dollars – his contract came in at the very top of the reasonable comparables – he ended up crushing it but it was at the very top of the market at the time.