All good things must pass, but it doesn’t mean we can’t do anything about it. Like Neil Young’s wild and beautiful guitar runs, fueled by all manner of contraptions, the Edmonton Oilers need to find a way to sustain the ‘McDavid-Draisaitl-Bouchard’ era through the end of the decade. Beyond, if possible. One of the ways to do it is finding value, in the draft and free agency, is identifying underrated players who are available. I believe scouts are vital, and that math can lead them to good places.
Before the 2020 draft, I took Bob McKenzie’s list and ran the NHL equivalencies I was using at the time. Edmonton was drafting No. 14, so I plucked a bunch in that range, identifying Dawson Mercer, Seth Jarvis, Jacob Perreault, Connor Zary and Mavrik Bourque as the best options (if they fell to 14):
- No. 12 BM Anton Lundell 23.6 NHLE
- No. 13 BM Dawson Mercer 33.3 NHLE
- No. 14 BM Kaiden Guhle 15.5 NHLE
- No. 15 BM Hendrix Lapierre 20.8 NHLE
- No. 16 BM Dylan Holloway 13.3 NHLE
- No. 18 BM Seth Jarvis 41.8 NHLE
- No. 19 Rodion Amirov 19.1 NHLE
- No. 20 Lukas Reichel 24.4 NHLE
- No. 21 Jacob Perreault 32.5 NHLE
- No. 22 Connor Zary 37.4 NHLE
- No. 23 John Peterka 11.2 NHLE
- No. 24 Ridly Greig 26.5 NHLE
- No. 26 Mavrik Bourque 33.7 NHLE
Edmonton would choose Holloway. Now, let’s make the same list using NHL games played these years later.
- Dawson Mercer 246
- Seth Jarvis 231
- Anton Lundell 216
- JJ Peteraka 161
- Kaiden Guhle 114
- Lukas Reichel 99
- Ridly Greig 92
- Dylan Holloway 89
- Connor Zary 63
- Hendrix Lapierre 57
- Jacob Perreault 1
- Mavrik Bourque
McKenzie had Mercer at No. 13, I had him No. 10, and the Oilers let him slip through. In choosing Dylan Holloway, the team took a player well within the range, but someone who had at least some question about his scoring ability. In this year’s first round, the Oilers took Sam O’Reilly, who owns a 22 NHLE. He has all kinds of two-way skills and things we associate with a future NHL player, but he is not a plus offensive player based on the numbers. Plenty of chatter about time on ice limitations and not playing a feature role, but for me I think the best scouting staffs make like Rick Springfield and Reach for the Sky.
If a team is looking for a checker or a robust shutdown blue, those men can be found later in the draft or elsewhere. Examples are marbled through the 2024-25 projected Bakersfield Condors roster.
Noah Philp was a free agent signing and there’s a chance he and O’Reilly will be competing for the same job in a couple of seasons (depth NHL center). Max Wanner was a late pick and he could replace the third pairing RH defender on the parent Oilers as soon as late this season. Jayden Grubbe doesn’t have the offense that Philip has, or that O’Reilly may deliver in the AHL, but he too could make it to the NHL and he cost a pick outside the first round. All of this to say that I think we’re headed back in to an era where there are disappointing first-round picks, Coke machines chosen in the third round, and phrases like “the area scout had a great passion for him” in the days to come. Le sigh.
New for The Athletic: Edmonton Oilers’ search for ideal Darnell Nurse partner marches on
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5720645/2024/08/25/edmonton-oilers-darnell-nurse-defense-partner/
I find it amusing. You haven’t learned anything from your blog’s from the past 20 years.. you just keep writing the same blogs every few years. Constantly complaining about the drafting. Constantly pretending like hindsight means something. The Oilers success will be up to Connor and Leon actually scoring goals in a winner take all game. How they get back there be another story. This summer they road one of the best pk performances of playoffs ever to a game 7 of a Stanley cup final. Their not the same team. We don’t even know yet if they are a better team. Who ever they draft will have no baring on this team moving for period. So you can me consumed by the draft or you can get over it already. 20 years man…
No
If after 20 years you haven’t figured out this blog’s not for you, then you’re a real slow learner. But either way, the problem is all yours.
Good morning Dick!
I find you amusing, little fella.
Made an account just to share your drunken thoughts with us?
Cool, cool.
1) pulling for O’Reilly but I’ve felt like he was a bit of a reach on draft day and still think that today. He’s primed for a big draft+1 year (good team, bigger role) but not sure he’ll ever bring enough offense. He has a career ahead of him though.
2) part of why I think the oilers traded to get him this year is that having another prospect (rather than a draft pick) to trade at the deadline next year will be advantageous. He’s ticketed for a good year so his value will be trending in the right direction making him a more attractive asset than the oilers ’26 pick.
I’m sure they like the player too, but this is at least part of the rationale for trading up in this draft.
I disagree, he was right in the range. That being said, he isn’t Bowman’s guy, so he has no ties to the player. That being said, how many solid young RHC’s has this organization drafted and deployed?
Grubbe is the future 4C, possibly arriving next season in a cameo role, but I think O’Reilly is a solid future bottom 6 piece, but things can change quickly.
My position is that if JJ is truly committed to best in class prospect development, it started after the draft. I am holding out hope for this, instead of the consistent deployment of 30 YO tweeners getting most of the prime time minutes in Bakersfield for the past 2 years.
FWIW, I am really liking the personnel decisions JJ made and it appears prospects will be set up for success under his leadership.
Grubbe had an OK/good rookie pro year but I would suggest that Grubbe has a long ways to go and if Philp gets back to near the level he was April 2023, it will be tough for Grubbe to pass him in the next number of years – contracts could eventually be a factor.
Paging Swedish Poster!
Hopefully you read this, is there any rumblings regarding Gustav Lindstrom that you’ve seen?
Motion seconded.
Would also add an overview/impression of his play would be greatly appreciated.
How many Goals does O’Reilly need to bag this season in London to show that he’ll be a threat to score in the N.H.L.
35 (or more) and then at least 45 the following season, if he plays the full schedule. These totals would show good progression.
Hunter was up for G.M job so obviously him and Jackson are acquaintances. Jackson wanted to make his mark and traded next years 1st in a supposedly deeper draft for O’Reilly who they identified has the sneak pick in the 1st round. I think O’Reilly will get a huge push from Hunter this year. If we lock up Leon&Connor all we need is a 3rd line Centre after Henrique 2 years maybe 3 is up. O’Reilly can step in and if he’s a Rem Murray that scores 17-20 wins faceoffs and PK’s Bob’s your Uncle.
The Connor Zary pick really stung while watching the draft.. I think many of us knew or had the sense that the Flanes picking behind us has gotten the better player.
IIRC, there were a lot of questions about Zary’s skating, which were legit questions.
Hey mate, if the Oilers want to hire me, I’ll give them my opinions for free.
This is what I had written at the time of the draft:
As I mentioned after that draft, how good would Braden Schneider look on the Oilers roster right now?
6’3” 210 age 22 RHD who scored more than a PPG in his final (abbreviated) junior season.
$2.2 million cap hit.
It’s worth keeping in mind that the 2020 Draft had almost no scouting. The Oilers went with a guy that they had local intel on. If there’s any year when that was justified, it was 2020.
I riffed off of what LT had in his post yesterday and by what others had suggested on Twitter for EDM’s 2RHD.
I made two long threads about it today on twitter looking at 9 players:
Shattenkirk, Barrie, Schultz, Emberson, Jokiharju, Lindstrom, Shattenkirk, Stecher, Brown, and Dermott
I looked at TOI% and results vs Elites, as well as general influence on team mates GF% and xGF%, and finally how they affected their most common Dpartners’ xGF% results (better than GF% in small samples)
Thread one is here:https://x.com/Woodguy55/status/1827784619091243320
Thread two is here: https://x.com/Woodguy55/status/1827784770291708223
Nice simply overview of the players’ results over the past 3 seasons. Not a deep dive, but a reasonable look at overall results and situations.
Thanks! For those not on X would someone be willing to post the thread or summary of it here?
TLDR:
No good options of players without contracts right now. Most marginal NHLers or at most 3rd pair.
Schultz might be worth a look but his history of Actual Goal Share being worse that Expected Goal Share is worrying and have been particularly bad in 2 of the last 3 years.
A good solution will probably be in-season once some cap space has accrued and players start shaking loose due to teams being out of the playoff race.
What do you think are the causes of this in an older player?
This was also typical of Bouchard before Ekhom joined the team. For Bouchard, this type of score seemed to be produced by the big mistake and a lower oiSV%. Do you think this would become typical of Bouchard’s play again if decoupled from Ekholm?
Bad goalies and partners can cause it.
As for the player’s own play, its usually being weak in near their own net.
Bouchard has only had one year where his influence on his team mates actual goals against was significantly worse than expected.
Actual RelTM GA/60 vs Expected RelTM GA/60
20-21 +0.1…+0.01 – same actual as expected
21-22 +0.15…+0.22 – better actual than expected
22-23 +0.23…-0.15 – much worse actual compared to expected
23-24 +0.04…-0.03 – slightly worse actual than expected, but not much
Remember that + in regards to GA or xGA is not a good thing.
“Bouchard has only had one year where his influence on his team mates actual goals against was significantly worse than expected.”
Thanks for this appreciated. My characterization of Bouchard here was based on his NST xGF% exceeding GF% every season but last. Nice to see the RelTM from Evolving. On the other side of the equation in 22-23 was a period of time where a number of forwards he played with couldn’t buy a goal, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod.
Awesome, thanks!
Thanks Woodguy. To my recollection, I was the first one around these parts to suggest Jokiharju.
Worth noting, Jokiharju broke his jaw on October 20, 2022 when a puck deflected into his face on an Okposo dump in. He suffered a concussion on the injury.
Jokiharju isn’t a world-beater, but he’s just turned 25, recovered from a fairly recent concussion and he’s been in the NHL forever already. He has a $3.1m cap hit.
He does not posses blazing speed and he gets injured fairly often.
Given his age and recovery from some recent lower body injuries and concussion, I had previously said that I think he might pop a bit this season (though not to the degree we saw from Durzi whom I had previously picked as a buy low candidate)
I always like targeting d that have played for bad teams and are under 25 as buy low candidates.
Thanks for that
@woodguy v2.0
Where do you think Nurse should fall in the lineup based on analytics: first, second or third pairing?
Nurse’s analytics have declined as his QOT has declined (see below which I commented yesterday). Do you view Nurse’s inability to drive as justification for switching Nurse and Ekholm, and having Ekholm as the driver on the second pairing? Thus promoting Nurse to play with McDavid to cover some of his issues.
Do you see Kulak’s scores vs elites last season as a sign that he should replace Nurse on the second pairing, dropping Nurse to third?
Or would you keep Nurse where he is, and let Skinner, Draisaitl and Arvidsson (and Emberson?) bolster his scores?
He’s ok on 2nd pair and has a history of good results there (including his first year with Ceci on a 1st pair)
Top 4 for sure.
I remain convinced the biggest problem with Nurse-Ceci (esp in the playoffs) is Nurse trying to do too much due to lack of trust of his partner.
I think he needs a passer more than anything as its the weakest spot in his game.
Nurse’s scores have been fine in the regular but drop off in the playoffs especially the last two seasons. This seems to be a pattern for all of the EDM defenders with poor PuckIQ regular season scores against elites. It also coincides in 2024 with Nurse’s common forward becoming Kane. I think that fits with what you’re saying about doing too much.
It feels like Emberson is going to become 2RD. Maybe I’m jumping the gun on that, it’s just a guess. I don’t know if that helps the passing or zone exit for Nurse. But Skinner should be better than Kane, definitely better than injured Kane.
For Nurse the best case for him is to play with Bouchard and McDavid, which would be the puck mover you’re talking about. But I don’t know if that’s the best thing for the team.
If Emberson is a future 2RD (and maybe he is), why would San Jose have traded him away for so little? I still can’t make sense of that.
I am convinced that Cody Ceci had/has more value around the league and among the managers than he did/does with most Oilers fans.
From Sheng Peng, the Sharks think that Ceci is better than Emberson today, to paraphrase a top 4D and a veteran to help with Celebrini and Smith, etc.
Plus the 3rd rounder, plus they can trade Ceci as a rental for another asset.
Grier has been super focused on centre depth thus far.
He now has:
Macklin Celebrini
William Smith
Filip Bystedt
Thomas Bordelau
He just drafted Sam Dickinson who projects as a #1LD and now that he acquired his franchise goaltender Askarov, I expect he will turn his attention to acquiring young D.
With Vlasic coming off the cap ($7 million) in a couple of seasons as well as some aging forwards he will have enormous flexibility to do so.
Clearly cap space is more valuable to EDM than the established quality of the player. It’s a big gamble. Emberson was a waiver wire pickup for SJS and was injured twice in his rookie season. They flipped him into Ceci and a pick and possibly another at deadline. He’s only played 30 games. Maybe it’s not him next to Nurse. It’s just a feeling that he might get the first crack. One thing about Ceci is that he didn’t miss too many games.
The Oilers were always going to have to trade Ceci or Kulak to be compliant without Kane on LTIR.
I agree that Ceci is clearly a better bet than Emberson (though some believe in addition by subtraction), but that was never the equation.
They got a possible Ceci replacement (even upgrade?) as part of the necessary Ceci cap dump.
In that context, adding Emberson was a positive, but it’s clear the defense is worse now than in game 7 of the finals.
I won’t be surprised when Kulak is also moved and replaced with cheaper players on contracts that can be buried. Especially as his 2.75 extends into next season. Hopefully they keep him around for the playoffs, but I’m not counting on it.
I’m wondering why you’re thinking his passing is worse than his positioning.
I’m not sure I’ve seen a well-paid defenceman who is worse at knowing where to be and where to be looking than Darnell Nurse. Maybe ever.
The best defence is not being in the defensive zone.
Nurse needs to have a partner he trusts enough to step up more often at the blue line and break up entries…..he backs in way too much and I think that’s a symptom of trust that Ceci has his back
Nurse doesn’t make a good first pass or first pass decisions.
He gets to pucks, recovers pucks and wins puck battles well enough, but needs a partner he can chip it to that make the good first pass that leads to the zone exit.
I agree his positioning and lack of awareness are an issue
Best way to solve them is to be there less imo
Woodguy with an epic X thread taking a deep dive on 2RD possibilities.
https://x.com/woodguy55/status/1827785920520814727?s=61
I feel there is more movement of young players between teams these days. While the Oil lost all recent first rounders, they were able to secure replacements rather quickly. This didn’t seem possible in years past.
It appears fretting over the lack of ELC and young players ‘in the system’ can be remedied with astute acquisitions.
I remain convinced that draft and development is critical – but when a team has a core as exceptional as the Oilers do, it seems there are plenty of other ways to keep feeding the pipeline.
We have a 5 year window. Let’s go!
When it comes to future internal scoring depth, these are the current candidates:
Savoie – well-rounded, size a concern. Projected impact season 2025-26.
Lavoie – defense and footspeed a concern, but his best opportunity is 2024-25 with 3 LW or 4 RW slots his to win. If he doesn’t make the NHL roster, there is a 40% chance he gets claimed.
Jarventie – he will play primarily AHL games this season, unless injuries impact the Oilers. He could make the team full-time by 2026-27, but could be Skinner’s replacement in 2025-26. He needs to work on his 2-way play in Bakersfield this season.
Petrov – He needs to find his scoring touch in Bakersfield, perhaps Savoie influences. He does show good defensive awareness, so that is a very good arrow. He could make the team after his ELC , but if his offence progresses, perhaps he arrives a year early.
Of the remaining prospects, IMO Berezhkin has the greatest potential, but he might be 2-3 years away.
LaChance, I see as a potential bottom six winger, Wakely and Stefan are likely just AHLers, although I think Wakely has a chance, as he is a battler, is physical and goes to the dirty areas on the regular, skating is a worry. Stefan is far too one dimensional and far too much in the periphery. IMO and I am projecting him to play at least a significant portion of his season in Fort Wayne this season.
I also am extremely high on Akey. I see him as the future 2RD (with Wanner the future 3RD arriving in the next 2 seasons).
May I ask what percentage you had the claim at last season?
His box-cars in Bako were almost identical this past season as they were in the previous season (except he was MORE reliant on the PP).
I would opine that the claim chance is near 5%.
We will likely know more come May when his KHL contract is finally up.
He’ll be 24 to start 2025/26 – I would expect, if he’s going to play in the NHL, it will start next season – if he’s an NHL player, coming from the KHL, he shouldn’t need much, if any, AHL time.
I agree 100% with this – that’s the plan – may it come to fruition!
I thought Lavoie was more likely than not to get claimed, so probably 55%. I thought given his age, that it was possible, but not once did I post about this.
I recorded the 2023-24 AHL Allstar game, I’ve watched it multiple times. I’m sure you probably did, as well. He was very impressive in the games and certainly this performance would have caught the attention of several organizations.
I don’t consider him a lock, but I think the likelihood he is on the opening night roster is 70%.
My prediction:
Skinner-97-18
RNH-29-Arvidsson
Lavoie-19-28
13-?-Podkolzin
That’s the lineup I posted yesterday so we are aligned. I think Derek Ryan starts at 4C, would be surprised if he finished the season at 4C.
If Kane is healthy to play, Lavoie likely comes out.
If Lavoie is waived I would be very surprised if he didn’t slide right through, just like last season and just like players similar to him almost always due (subject to exception of course) routinely.
Tough years ahead, indeed.
I do not see Podkolzin, being a true Holloway replacement, who I saw as a top 6 winger/3C. Despite VP’s rookie numbers, I not see a 20 goal season in his future, I think his ceiling is 15 goals and 40 points. From looking closely into his game, he plays like a more physical Janmark, with a touch less speed.
However, if he gets significant at bats with 97 or 29, that could blow my celing projections out of the water. I do see a future where Podkolzin plays the trusted 3F role during the closing minutes of close games. He is a substantial defensive forward.
In the end though, he is a bottom sixer all day every day.
Pretty slim pickings in Elite Prospects latest Top 100 list.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Habs/s/JIQo4CLum0
Yes that is the point of LT’s article.
However, I see the Oilers have 2 on the list and your formidable prospect-rich LA Kings have 1.
Speaking of “slim pickings”, how do you feel about that?
EP uses Calder Trophy eligibility as its definition of a prospect.
That means fewer than 25 games in pro hockey and disqualifies someone like Brandt Clarke who has played exactly 25 NHL games.
In addition to Clarke, the Kings have 6 players 24 and under on their roster…all of whom were drafted by the team.
The Oilers have 3…2 recently acquired in trade Emberson and Podkholzin and 1, Bouchard, who turns 25 in October.
How do you feel about that?
Clarke is great young prospect Dman, the Doughty heir apparent.
He was drafted at #8 for a reason.
He is but I think some also recognize that this will soon be the 3rd fall where he hear about the impact he’s going to make on the Kings. This after hearing about how historically deep the Kings’ elite prospect pool is (as Fergamo, Thomas, Turcotte, Clarke have all simply toiled in the AHL and Kaliyev struggles to keep an NHL lineup spot.
Clarke will be 22 later this season – I’ve read that elite d-men show it early.
15G and 40 points with a 2 X $1MM contract at the cost of a 4th round pick – heck ya I’ll take that.
As an aside, Dylan Holloway has a career 9G and 18P.
I don’t think Podkolzin will reach his ceiling on this contract, because deployment. Maybe year 3 or 4.
You very well could be right
At the same time, he has top 6 skills, or did once upon a time. If he’s able to make plays and impact the game from the bottom six, similar to Klim Kostin, he could see some reps up the lineup.
Picking him up was astute, and given the Canucks in division impressive
At the very least he should be a reliable forward. Janmark proved how much value that has in playoffs even if they aren’t world beaters in reg season scoring. That also means they remain affordable
A champ team needs a full line up, the hard to stop and those that stop hard. The stop hard ones are better if they come with skill that they perhaps can’t establish full time, but when the chips are down that type often can step up. I’d rather have first round talent Pod on a breakaway than Erne. Hopefully Pod can join the pod, he seems humble enough to accept a role especially if it’s a regular one
That has been the missing ingredient for years, not more offense per se. Qualified by adding two proven top 6 wingers was needed given the talent of the top 2 C, and no internal options taking the open top 6 winger job, Kane’s unknown availability and future health, but the point remains
You sure about that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zqBt7xco7I
Interesting as it could be O’Riley replacing a Philp that is getting expensive – given where I anticipate their timelines.
I mean, if Philp can regain his form from the end of the 2022/23 season, he likely sees NHL games this season and should be the 4C heading in to the following season (on a 3rd contract).
Sam O’Riley is at least 2 seasons (1 more OHL season and 1 full AHL season), if not longer, from being in the NHL conversation. Noah Philp will be 28 at that point, making “UFA money” if he’s made it.
I hope Philp pops, but the chances of him making very much (not that 775K US isn’t a lot for the rest of us) are not high
I wouldn’t think he’d earn him self a big pay-day but, then again, I’m guessing not many thought Derek Ryan would get himself a 3 X $3.125MM contract when he was 25, 26, 27 playing in Austria.
In any event, the post was really just pointing out that Philp will be a “UFA-age” player when O’Riley becomes part of the convo.
I’ve been saying for years, and even moreso as the new contracts for Drai and McDavid (and now Bouch in that group) become closer to reality, its imperative that this team has young players, generally on their ELCs but also cheap second contracts, that provide value exceeding their cap hit. We need these players to come in and replace the veterans that price themselves out at UFA age.
For example, Dylan Holloway replacing Warren Foegele for well less than half Foegele’s previous cost. Philip Broberg replacing, well, Ceci or, in due course, Ekholm.
That is the most frustrating aspect of this whole offer sheet fiasco. Its not just that we lost these players its that we lost these players when there was an expectation that they’d be massive value contracts for at least this season.
Losing them hurts. Losing them as massive value contracts hurts more.
With that said, once the Blues took away the value contract aspect and turned, Holloway in to poteintally being value and Broberg likely being over-capped, well, I get the decision to let them go.
This organiation NEEDS Matthew Savoie to hit and provide 2 solid value contract years.
This organiation NEEDS at least one of Akey or Wanner to hit (that could be the 2RD and 3RD of the future).
I like the Podz bet and I am hopeful that someone like Jarventie or Lavoie can impact the NHL roster in a material way at some point.
One of the most disappointing parts of Holland’s tenure was the mediocre drafting, IMO.
I think the Holland era was an era of disappointing first round picks, no?
Broberg and Holloway were both reach picks to varying degrees. Add in Bourg. Very meh.
Add to the fact he wasn’t able to keep Bro or Holloway…
Ken did some very good things to help the team but also made some Grade A mistakes.
There is nothing disappointing about Broberg and Holloway. They are quickly catching up (after being slowplayed or injured) and will soon reclaim or surpass their draft spot in their class.
When he has been actually played a regular shift, Broberg has performed at a 3rd pairing level or above for the last 1.5 seasons.
Holloway has been hampered by injury and Oilers cap management.
Lowetide, the coke machines you reference from yrs past are not the same as the ones the current Oilers are targeting. The ones we target now can actually skate, and actually make and take a pass or shoot, where as in the past we wld draft lumbering slow big man types who dominate in junior but get exposed in the NHL. Big difference
Yeah, I’m not buying. The young man they chose in the fifth round (Connor Clattenburg) doesn’t have the look of a player who you can project to the NHL. Perhaps I’m wrong, but I’ve seen this movie before.
What happened to this from one week ago?
I was honestly wondering the same about the significant tonal shift of today’s post. From Harvest Moon stating that LT liked the O’Reilly pick and is a fan of this player type, to today where the modest NHLe appears a harbinger of not drafting skill and return of Coke Machines?
Apologies if I misinterpreted LT, and I do agree on the Clattenburg pick being a headscratcher and not projecting at all as having an NHL future. I would say at least the pick being in the 5th and not first 3 rounds is a sign of progress!
I think LT had mentioned this previously, but the fact that they expend a pick on player who was likely not going to be drafted is shocking and seems very 1970’s. A very disappointing and regressive approach, hopefully not a harbinger for future drafts.
I am not a professional scout, but I simply don’t see an NHL player there, no matter the angle I look from.
Maybe the offer sheets and an organization that’s aged itself and is looking to patch a hole they created on right side defence with glue factory defenders changes one’s mind.
Perhaps. But the comments related to drafting rather than the professional side though.
After 5 years at the helm more than likely we won’t have 1 Holland drafted player in our opening day line-up.
He did exactly what many said when he was hired, including one quoted GM by some media person saying he was mediocre, don’t recall who
Add to that I think his stage of life amplifying his weaker skills, and the mistakes are coming home to roost. By age I just mean that he wasn’t a strong negotiator coming in among other weaknesses like being busy enough, and with his personality he became more Uncle Kenny than a strong decision making active GM with the best player in the world gifted to him, another elite C, core drafted, the highest salary, a spending owner, and the easiest road to a Cup and another for him
I think Bowman has a harder job to do than Holland had, because Holland didn’t have the same level of structural cap problems and level of new contracts required, he created the cap problems, and entrenched them like a champ
The question moving forward is do Jackson and Bowman have the skill to navigate their way out of enough of it to do what is possible with this group. To me they have to be hard, because I don’t think it’s a good idea to have 4 high salaries in the first place, but especially if one is really under performing the cap hit. If they can fix that they can tone it down a bit because they will have better flexibility
Sure but that statement lacks context:
1) Henrique (while technically a UFA re-sign) was acquired for a first round pick
2) Mattias Ekholm was acquired for a former first round pick and a future 1st rounder
3) Brett Kulak was traded for a 2nd round pick (that pick will be in the NHL for the Habs this season)
4) Maximum Wanner won’t be on the opening roster but will play games for the Oilers, potentially starting this season
Imo I don’t expect the Oilers to have much draft picks and prospects in the system until the glimmers twins children are entering Jr High lol
This group has already shown they are much more active in supplying the system with some quality than the previous, and said from the start finding those players anywhere and everywhere was the plan because of the situation
To me most team’s problems are created by their decisions and effort rather than some unavoidable cycle teams have to go through. A team can remain competitive even if not a cup favourite if they are smart enough. Or they can choose to go through a long tank cycle and hope they actually get back to the top
If the Oilers didn’t luck into Connor, I’m not sure we would be having the same conversations right now, meaning tanking success depends a lot on what the top players available are like. The Oilers spent a lot of years floundering simply because of who was there at 1OV. It’s not always an actual river pushing franchise player
Or even top 10 or higher picks. Nuge and Hall weren’t franchise it turns out even if good, Yak an enigma. They did find elite players in Drai and Bouch, but out of all of the years of higher picks those two and Nuge remain, last season the furthest they got since ‘06. Tanking or just being bad doesn’t guarantee another strong ascent. Connor is what has driven this
Sometimes if elite talent is gone or fading or you aren’t drafting it, you take the other route which is build a deep strong team, and that may even have a better chance of winning because it mitigates playoff luck and the cap more if you can build the right team
Bowman refusing to create more structural cap problems being gifted two offer sheets shows he will make hard and potentially unpopular decisions, work hard, quickly and with a defined plan to find other solutions (they are acquiring players that fit their vision not just simply filling holes), and that is a big step in the right direction. Make the best of where you are at
Marginal players aren’t going to keep the Oilers competitive. Especially if they’re overpaid.
Jackson – Bowman are going to need to find top-line players to replace Nuge and Hyman when they age out in 3-4 years.
Detroit was able to find Datsyuk / Zetterberg as Yzerman / Lidstrom aged, Tampa has found Point and landed Hagel & Guentzel. Bowman had a young Panarin join Toews and Kane …
It would be nice to have the P/60 for those players. However, we don’t have those…but that doesn’t mean scouting teams don’t have those.
Mavrik Bourque played 1 NHL game last season after winning AHL MVP.
Id consider the Holloway pick more of a departure from math than Oreilly. It was the last pick of the first round and he has massive opportunity upside. Would you have been disappointed with Easton Cowan where he was picked? Oil seem to be going that same route which is underrated high skill.
Makes sense from where they were picking unless there was a Zary + available in that range?
Yeah…but Holloway disproved the lack of offense in his draft+1 season. Then injuries and Holland’s overripening process set his arrival time back (so much so that the Blues are going to be the beneficiary, and Oilers fans will likely feel “Skinned” by the Blues for the next decade).
Holloway had a slow start in college as a freshman (not unusual), but finished super strong, and rolled in his draft+1. One has to consider draft year splits.
Where was this over-ripening process with Holloway?
100% that was the case with Broberg but Holloway got all sorts of opportunities in the NHL and opportunities in the top 6.
Yes, the first demotion out of the top 6 after the giveaway in game 1 vs. Vancouver was a bit much but Holloway was afforded many many many NHL games, in various roles.
He would often show well when put in the top six but then the mistakes would come, and not just mistakes, repeats of the same mistakes he had previously made, and his game would slide and he’d be moved down on merit.
Of course Holloway has developed over the years and the repeated mistakes have been cut down but he never showed consistency.
He is a solid young player, likely a middle six floor, but there has been zero over-ripening of this player or lack of opportunity.
I agree with you on the pick and think finding underrated players like Cowan, and hopefully O’Reilly, is a key job of the analytics team. This is something Pracey spoke of specifically prior to the draft as well.
Even if just looking at pure offense in that range I struggle to find someone I would have considered taking instead, maybe Ryder Ritchie?
I think their approach in finding untapped offensive potential, such as with O’Reilly blocked on a stacked team in his draft year, is an important approach when picking at the back of the 1st round when the projected pure offensive difference makers are long gone usually.
I like that they are encompassing all aspects of what they want in a player
Size, skating, style of play, and skill. Before it seemed that they were looking at less aspects, and left hoping the player would be something different than what they are as players. Especially size. To me undersized players that aren’t high skill players have a much lower chance of being helpful enough to justify an ongoing roster spot, or staying healthy over time
There is still risk, but in later first round picks and lower I see this strategy as mitigating the risk of success, the player plays like you want and has less obstacles to being effective in their role in the NHL. That being said you still don’t draft role players with your highest pick
I am just fine with the O’Riley pick.
Pracey talked about this exact type of pick before the draft (and then again after) – finding assets that they believe are under-valued, for one reason or another – in this case, a player that is blocked by veterans on a deep roster.
At the same time, I’m going to remain guarded on O’Riley – I am expected a spike, of course, most junior players improve year over, but it almost seems like an Easton Cowan pop is the expectation of the fan-base.
Sure, it could happen, and I’m hopeful, but that would be “best case scenario” and there are numerous different ways this can go.