OILERS AT NO. 14: DYLAN HOLLOWAY

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers selected center Dylan Holloway with the No. 14 overall selection in the 2020 draft. I had him No. 25, he is a big, strong power forward who had been on Edmonton’s radar throughout the draft process.

His NHLE (13.6) is shy, and I do believe that’s going to be the concern moving forward when projecting him on a skill line.

Holloway is a September 2001 (he just turned 19), and is listed as 6.01, 203.

I wrote about Tyler Wright’s preference for big, athletic forwards with speed at The Athletic today, and he fits that description well.

139 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
139 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Close but no Ciger

some of you agreeing with or swayed by a troll when he said the EXACT opposite a month ago about NCAA players.

leadfarmer

This is like first round pace to this day so far

Jaxon

My wishlist for today:

1. LC Dylan Holloway

2. RC Tristen Robins
3. LC Rory Kerins
4. RD William Villeneuve
5. G Nico Daws
6. RC Justin Sourdif

7. LC Evan Vierling
8. RC Jack Finley
9. RW Zayde Wisdom
10. RD Kasper Puttio
11. RD Luke Prokop
12. RW Tyler Tullio

13. LW James Hardie
14. RW Luke Evangelista
15. RW Brandon Coe

16. RD Jack Thompson
17. LW Pavel Gogolev

18. RD Miguel Tourigny
19. G Jakub Malek
20. LD Alec Belanger

Jaxon

A lot of apples to oranges here but in Cale Makar’s draft season (’16-’17) he scored 1.39 pts/gp. In Dylan Holloway’s draft-1 season (’18-’19) he scored 1.66 pts/gp. Holloway was at about 11 months younger than Makar was. AJHL NHLE factor of 0.15 = 20.18 as a draft-1 player. I’ve also seen a NHLe for AJHL of .1778 (avg of AJHL to NCAA and AJHL to WHL from Behind the Net) which would translate to an NHLe of 24.2 in his draft-1 season. I think that’s pretty promising. and Wheeler’s breakdown of what makes him special is a pretty encouraging read. I’m liking this pick more and more.

jp

Ryan: My issue with the pick isn’t anything specific about Holloway himself.

What we’re seeing in this league, in terms of NHL management. is that there’s a gap.

One of the key differentiating factors that separates the “smart kids” from the also-rans is how they manage risk.

The smart kids take steps to minimize risks in their decision making (analytics, valuation models, projections).

What we see in Oilers management is an ongoing pattern or propensity of taking on too much bad risk in their decisions… usually by going with your gut type decisions.

Drafting a player from the NCAA with mediocre counting numbers at #14 represents bad risk in my opinion.

That’s different than saying I don’t think Holloway will be a good hockey player.

Rather, there were safer wagers available. The odds that his offense is shy for a player selected at #14 is substantial. Bad risk. High odds that his offense is shy with not an out of the ballpark reward if he pans out.

In contrast, Washington selected Lapierre, further back too no less.

In this case, it’s more risk/reward. There’s risk in his concussion history, but substantial upside if he pans out.

The Flames selected Connor Zary 24.

I don’t know one thing about Connor Zary.

His NHLe is 37.

He’s certainly a more probable bet to be a top-six player.

Holland is from the old school of hockey management.

Forget about the flat cap, he traded two second-round picks for an arb-eligible RFA who probably sees himself as a 30-goal scorer coming off a terrible green jacket season. That was not a great risk to take for a player with substantial warts in his game nor a great situation to volunteer for (trying to negotiate his next contract).

He’s taken on unnecessary risk in the Kassian and Chiasson contracts.

I think the way forward is to minimize risk in your decision making like Joe Sakic rather than making a series of decisions fraught with risk (Kassian contract etc) and hoping for the best.

I agree with you on Holloway vs. Zary, for instance.

Lapierre is a difficult example since the math doesn’t really capture his upside either. Nor did it for Burakovsky (at the NHL level) for that matter. So there are a lot of ‘softer’ risk/reward valuations being made too (softer vs NHLE I mean).

The AA trade I still don’t agree on. He would be an Oiler if not for Covid. At the time of the trade he was still over 0.5 pts/game (in line with Burakovsky’s best season before he was acquired). He has 1st or 2nd line scoring rates for his entire career. Holland did choose to take on a difficult contract situation but I still believe AA was a good bet as a player.

Eh Team

Ryan: What we’re seeing in this league, in terms of NHL management. is that there’s a gap.

NHL management as a whole is abysmal. Holland is a huge step up from Chia, but he’s middle of the pack at best. His track record with the Oilers is hit and miss. Big hit on getting rid of Lucic and props for picking Broberg. The rest is not very good- too much $ for non-core players and wasting of draft picks.

OriginalPouzar

McSorley33: You seem to be very hopeful about the 2020 free agency market for the cap constrained Oilers.

Here is a thought experiment for you- I have stolen from Speeds@hockeysymposium:

Where would the Oilers be in Free Agency 2020 if Kenny does not make the AA or Green trades, or signs Chaser and Kassian. Edmonton is rolling in picks and Cap space.

There would be $4M less to work with in free agency if AA was qualified (including arb risk).

The trade in retrospect didn’t work out – we know that.

The trade should have zero impact on Holland’s decisions moving forward – the cost was paid – make the next right move and it seems Holland figures he can get better value for that cap space in free agency and trades.

Eh Team

JimmyV1965: My point is that circumstances have changed. Qualifying AA was a no brainer IMO before Covid. That is no longer the case and the decision should be made without regard to the acquisition cost.

Oh, and Neal still needs to be bought out.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Brightside: management CLEARLY values speed. Centre depth featuring Holloway and McLeod at 3C and 4C down the line certainly has its appeal.

McDavid
Draisaitl
Holloway
McLeod

Further, while draft year freshman comparables aren’t all that attractive, it’s worth expanding the sample to include later birthday draft+1s to get more data points. When you do so, guys like Palmieri and Kreider standout as attainable ceilings for Holloway.

Eh Team

OriginalPouzar: Of course, it hasn’t worked out great but, really, the fanbase would have lost it if Holland didn’t try and make some deadline improvements, no?

Why should Holland care about what the fanbase wants? He needs to make the team better not squander draft picks and overpay non-core players. But I agree he felt the need to add. If he thought AA was worth 2 picks , he needs to qualify him (or sign him for less). Maybe that’s still the plan, but I doubt it.

flyfish1168

Harpers Hair:
Good teams pluck these guys out of the NCAA for nothing.

It’s a waste of a first round pick.

Guess you never heard of Jonathan Toews

flyfish1168

russ99:
To drag a kid down because of one year NHLe numbers as an NCAA freshman when he played a secondary role for most of the season seems not the best use of empirical reasoning.

Context matters. There’s a reason this kid was in the middle of the first round by every draft expert,

I agree. Playing against men with limited minutes in the big 10 conference is not a small feat. There should be some consideration of the level of competition versus playing in junior hockey. Most important now more playing time and special teams play.

Ben

I’m a little surprised he’s not willing to overpay AA by a million bucks after throwing so much cash after Kassian and Chiasson. I suppose the worry is he gets awarded $3.75M or something absurd. Still a good chance he can contribute next season and recover some of that value.

OriginalPouzar

GB&Q:
2nd round. How does Kenny get in?

Wings are at 32. Sens at 33, Leafs at 44… Sharks, Kings… we got anything they can use?

I would love for hit to get in a grab Mysak – not sure its feasible – many have thought Matt Benning is worth a 2nd rounder (over the years) but, of course, the flat cap has crushed that value.

JP, maybe.

iHockeyWpg

Dylan Demelo resigns with Jets. 4 years 3 million per season as per Darren Dreger.

OriginalPouzar

Eh Team: Yeah, circumstances changed but I think the play at the trade deadline was to stay with what they had.I know he wanted to ‘reward’ the team for making the playoffs but a realistic assessment would have been to understand the team was not yet a contender to go all the way.But now we are out 3 draft picks for AA and Green and those picks would have real value in stocking the pipeline.

Well, yes, now, its clear that standing pat would have been the “better” play but did you have that opinion at the time? Holland wanted to help the team’s current playoff run without using the first round pick and the vast majority of fans were on board with that. I personally wasn’t a huge fan of acquiring AA, the player, but the premise was very solid – paying a bit of a cost (but not the first rounder) on a player under team control.

Of course, it hasn’t worked out great but, really, the fanbase would have lost it if Holland didn’t try and make some deadline improvements, no?

dustrock

€√¥£€^$,

Yeah he’s playing against guys who are 22 and 23. This can’t be understated.

Also wonder if the Oilers thought that made him closer to ready for the bigs.

geowal

Harpers Hair:
Good teams pluck these guys out of the NCAA for nothing.

It’s a waste of a first round pick.

You heard it here folks. Never draft out of the NCAA. Got it.
🙄

€√¥£€^$

Kinger_Oil.redux:

– We will see.He gets to play a full season this year which is great, and as the oldest 1st rounder chosen, this would be a plus for this managementas it would be viewed as closer to ready

For the sake of accuracy and context, he was born AFTER 8 other players picked yesterday and was born on the same day as Rossi. Several players older than him were picked before #16.

FWIW, Connor Zary is also older than Holloway.

A couple of players, like Jack Quinn are a couple of days younger than Holloway.

He was the 2nd youngest player in the NCAA last year and has often been the youngest (or one of the youngest) players by a significant margin on EVERY team he has played on in the last 5 years and has not looked out of place, including 2 National Teams . I believe that would qualify as elite.

meanashell11

russ99:
To drag a kid down because of one year NHLe numbers as an NCAA freshman when he played a secondary role for most of the season seems not the best use of empirical reasoning.

Context matters. There’s a reason this kid was in the middle of the first round by every draft expert,

Shhhhhhh. Would not want to ruin the narrative they are trying to construct that Dutch does not know what he is doing. Same guys who shit on the pick last year.

I know people will think I am crazy but he’s a better skater but he reminds me of Ryan Smyth. Also, no one has mentioned he wears number 4!

russ99

To drag a kid down because of one year NHLe numbers as an NCAA freshman when he played a secondary role for most of the season seems not the best use of empirical reasoning.

Context matters. There’s a reason this kid was in the middle of the first round by every draft expert,

Kinger_Oil.redux

– This is definately a “scouting pcik” vs an analytical one.

– His NHLE don’t suggest a scoring forward

– His late birthday is generally a flag that analytics would reduce him more

– But some of the scouting reports love him, and his pedigree and attitude are high

– LT called it: recognizing that this management/scouting would have hard time passing on him

– We will see. He gets to play a full season this year which is great, and as the oldest 1st rounder chosen, this would be a plus for this management as it would be viewed as closer to ready

flyfish1168

Dustylegnd:
My son played minor hockey a division behind this kid here in Springbank, he is freakishly strong and was the ONLY 15 year old to make the NW Flames AAA midget team. The next year he went to the AJHL and dominated as a 16 year old, he proceeded to lead the AJHL in scoring and be awarded Canadian Minor Jr player of the year.

This kid was a freshman on a very very skilled Wisconsin team and did not receive offensive minutes with all the USNDT glamour boys in front of him but rather honed his defence and power game.

I like this pick a lot and I think his offence will be just fine, he is a relentless human being from a very very intense hockey family, he is exactly what he Oilers need.

Great pick

Thanks for sharing. I’m growing into liking the pick more and more. He has attributes and genetics that can’t be taught or learned. Exactly the type of player you need for a playoff run. Big, strong and skilled

flyfish1168

hags9k:
I like the pick, mostly because he reminds me of Ethan Moreau.

I’m hoping more like Keith Primeau

Fuge Udvar

So if Holland signs AA for 3M and quite likely 3.5M with arbitration and he gets raked over the coals for a vast overpay. But then everybody is upset that he walks AA. Ignoring the complete change in the NHL financial situation is just bad faith arguing.

I hope AA test free agency, finds out nobody is going to pay him 3M and then resigns here for 2-2.5M.

Ribs

Mukhamadullin. Where’s Dellow to explain? lol. Intriguing!

tsunami

Ice Sage: Or shelter point if you prefer, doh!

you better define clearly what you mean by “impact player” with HH… These goalposts have a tendency to move pretty fast 😉

JimmyV1965

McSorley33: You seem to be very hopeful about the 2020 free agency market for the cap constrained Oilers.

Here is a thought experiment for you- I have stolen from Speeds@hockeysymposium:

Where would the Oilers be in Free Agency 2020 if Kenny does not make the AA or Green trades, or signs Chaser and Kassian. Edmonton is rolling in picks and Cap space.

I didn’t like the Chiasson and Kassian signings when the deals were done and said so at the time. In fact, I suggested last summer that we should we trade Kassian to extract some value from the player and avoid the temptation of resigning him.

I have no idea what will happen in free agency this year, other than prices will drop. There’s simply not enough cap space and real dollars to go around. Hell, we might get AA for less than $3.5 mill. Or maybe we get an even better player.

My point is that circumstances have changed. Qualifying AA was a no brainer IMO before Covid. That is no longer the case and the decision should be made without regard to the acquisition cost.

€√¥£€^$

Video of Holloway from a couple of great sources I enjoy for those seeking more info/analysis:

https://youtu.be/hm0zNQ_ff_s

https://youtu.be/YouoANWCdoE

McSorley33

JimmyV1965: Of course I am. I’m also intrigued what $3.5 – 4 mill gets you in free agency this year. It could very well be a player better than AA.

Trading two seconds for an RFA with a strong record of scoring was a good move IMO.But the entire economics of the league changed overnight.

You seem to be very hopeful about the 2020 free agency market for the cap constrained Oilers.

Here is a thought experiment for you- I have stolen from Speeds@hockeysymposium:

Where would the Oilers be in Free Agency 2020 if Kenny does not make the AA or Green trades, or signs Chaser and Kassian. Edmonton is rolling in picks and Cap space.

Ryan

jp: You know (I think) that I share your concerns about Holloway’s offense.

But Bling had a nice contribution at the end of the last thread relevant to defying NHLE (it was posted after your post that I’m quoting actually).

In short, Holloway scored pretty well at evens but didn’t get PP time. (he also finished strong, but that’s not news to anyone).

The most relevant part, comparing Holloway’s EV and PP scoring to 2 other college guys who were picked early last year (apologies if this was posted already, I didn’t see anything from Bling in this thread):

So at even strength Holloway compared quite favourably to a couple of high end NCAA rookies picked a year ago.

I certainly won’t say I’m a fan of the pick, but this is one reason for some optimism.

My issue with the pick isn’t anything specific about Holloway himself.

What we’re seeing in this league, in terms of NHL management. is that there’s a gap.

One of the key differentiating factors that separates the “smart kids” from the also-rans is how they manage risk.

The smart kids take steps to minimize risks in their decision making (analytics, valuation models, projections).

What we see in Oilers management is an ongoing pattern or propensity of taking on too much bad risk in their decisions… usually by going with your gut type decisions.

Drafting a player from the NCAA with mediocre counting numbers at #14 represents bad risk in my opinion.

That’s different than saying I don’t think Holloway will be a good hockey player.

Rather, there were safer wagers available. The odds that his offense is shy for a player selected at #14 is substantial. Bad risk. High odds that his offense is shy with not an out of the ballpark reward if he pans out.

In contrast, Washington selected Lapierre, further back too no less.

In this case, it’s more risk/reward. There’s risk in his concussion history, but substantial upside if he pans out.

The Flames selected Connor Zary 24.

I don’t know one thing about Connor Zary.

His NHLe is 37.

He’s certainly a more probable bet to be a top-six player.

Holland is from the old school of hockey management.

Forget about the flat cap, he traded two second-round picks for an arb-eligible RFA who probably sees himself as a 30-goal scorer coming off a terrible green jacket season. That was not a great risk to take for a player with substantial warts in his game nor a great situation to volunteer for (trying to negotiate his next contract).

He’s taken on unnecessary risk in the Kassian and Chiasson contracts.

I think the way forward is to minimize risk in your decision making like Joe Sakic rather than making a series of decisions fraught with risk (Kassian contract etc) and hoping for the best.

Harpers Hair: The bottom line is you don’t take an NCAA player in the first round unless he projects as an elite player.

I agree with you too often.

JimmyV1965

McSorley33: It takes courage to incinerate two -2nd round draft picks for 9 NHL games played?

At least Chiarelli got 29 games out of Griffin Reinhart.

Be honest, your not mildly curious what happens at pick 45 tomorrow?

Of course I am. I’m also intrigued what $3.5 – 4 mill gets you in free agency this year. It could very well be a player better than AA.

Trading two seconds for an RFA with a strong record of scoring was a good move IMO. But the entire economics of the league changed overnight.

Bling

Harpers Hair: Yep.

The last 10 Hobey Baker winners:

Scott Perunovitch – 45th overall

Cale Makar.- a special player.

Adam Gaudette – undrafted

Will Butcher – 5th round

Jimmy Vesey – 3rd round

Jack Eichel – a special player

Johnny Gaudreau 4th round

Drew LeBanc – undrafted

Andy Miele – undrafted

Blake Geoffrion – 2nd round pick – bust

The bottom line is you don’t take an NCAA player in the first round unless he projects as an elite player.

You can find value in later picks as long as you draft them there.

Why are you using Hobey Baker winner as your end point instead of successful NHL player?

Better players are less likely to spend four years in college and therefore have fewer opportunities to win that award.

For instance, Brock Boeser, a forward for the Vancouver Canucks, played only two years at North Dakota before turning pro.

Other players, off the top of my head, such as Zach Parise, Chris Kreider, and Blake Wheeler, were first rounders and easily delivered at their respective draft positions.

Projection is difficult in Holloway’s case — his numbers (and draft position) would have been helped by playing in junior this past season.

This is the same problem that we run into with Swedish D.

I would add as fans we often overlook the value of puck pursuit. Mark Stone has made a hell of a career out of being an excellent stick checker and forechecker, as did Ryan Smyth. So did Datsyuk, though he also did other things very well.

McSorley33

JimmyV1965:
I give Holland full marks for moving on from AA. Loved the trade at the time because he didn’t give up a first round pick and acquired a goal scorer who was still an RFA.Resigning him would have been the easy move. It takes courage to let him walk. Free agency will look very very different this year and Holland might get an even better player for the same kind of money.

It takes courage to incinerate two -2nd round draft picks for 9 NHL games played?

At least Chiarelli got 29 games out of Griffin Reinhart.

Be honest, your not mildly curious what happens at pick 45 tomorrow?

JimmyV1965

Wilde: It doesn’t matter if the signing happens or doesn’t.

The distance between Holland’s valuation of the player at the time of acquisition – which was based on the entire process of drafting and developing the player in his former organisation, followed by the evidence given by *nearly three hundred NHL games* – and the valuation of the player nine games later can be taken as ample evidence that Holland doesn’t understand how to interpret what’s in front of him.

There is no way to cover that distance in nine games. You would need over a season, conservatively.

Nothing else matters here. No one has to wager their analysis on the player involved, because a lack of internal coherence has been revealed – plainly and publicly.

IMO letting AA walk has less to do with Holland’s evaluation of the player, and more to do with his projection of what will happen in free agency. For the first time ever, it might actually make sense to enter the free agency market in a meaningful way. I respect Holland for the move. He looks bad for wasting two picks, but he doesn’t care about that. He’s doing what he thinks is the right thing.

AJP

Harpers Hair,

In terms of where most draft analysts projected Holloway to go, it is a stretch to call him a distant bell. Wheeler is quite high on him at The Athletic. He had him at 18, and most others had him in the mid-teens. If they had taken Holloway over Jarvis, that would be one thing, but it isn’t a terrible pick. He was in the range.

JimmyV1965

Reja: record of 20-11-5.
In the end, Wisconsin ended with a 14-20-2 record, going 4-3-1 with 27 goals for and 30 goals against (in their 3rd game vs Ohio State

Interesting. I noticed that too. Hope he’s okay.

JimmyV1965

I give Holland full marks for moving on from AA. Loved the trade at the time because he didn’t give up a first round pick and acquired a goal scorer who was still an RFA. Resigning him would have been the easy move. It takes courage to let him walk. Free agency will look very very different this year and Holland might get an even better player for the same kind of money.

jp

Harpers Hair: Hughes was an outlier since he was 12.

Was Holloway?

I have no idea.

What on earth was Hughes up to at age 12?

Harpers Hair

tavvey tune:
Ken’s building a playoff roster.This pick will be celebrated 2 or 3 April’s from now.

I’m pretty sure the rest of the league will wait and do nothing until for the next 2-3 years while Ken is fiddling around the margins.

Harpers Hair

jp:
Eh Team,

Likewise Vancouver with Hughes.

Hughes was an outlier since he was 12.

Was Holloway?

Harpers Hair

hunter1909: Oh brother.

Power forward types aren’t they meant to be some of the worst types of players to draft, because so many of them fail to make the grade? Injuries, for a start?

Oilers draft one of the better 2nd round picks in the draft, in the 1st round lol

Yep.

The last 10 Hobey Baker winners:

Scott Perunovitch – 45th overall

Cale Makar.- a special player.

Adam Gaudette – undrafted

Will Butcher – 5th round

Jimmy Vesey – 3rd round

Jack Eichel – a special player

Johnny Gaudreau 4th round

Drew LeBanc – undrafted

Andy Miele – undrafted

Blake Geoffrion – 2nd round pick – bust

The bottom line is you don’t take an NCAA player in the first round unless he projects as an elite player.

You can find value in later picks as long as you draft them there.

pts2pndr

digger50: Why would you feel the necessity to post this?

<for $100 Alex what is a mean spirited little troll.😎

Leroy Draisdale

Hmmm…..what to do. Opinions I respect on both sides of the aisle. I’m going to go the optimistic route and be happy with with the pick. Welcome Dylan!

GB&Q

2nd round. How does Kenny get in?

Wings are at 32. Sens at 33, Leafs at 44… Sharks, Kings… we got anything they can use?

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

leadfarmer:
Columbus blue jackets have no idea how the draft works

No shit. I still remember when that fool Jarmo passed on JP and picked that stiff Dubois.

tavvey tune

Ken’s building a playoff roster. This pick will be celebrated 2 or 3 April’s from now.

jp

Eh Team,

Likewise Vancouver with Hughes.

hunter1909

Harpers Hair:
Good teams pluck these guys out of the NCAA for nothing.

It’s a waste of a first round pick.

Oh brother.

Power forward types aren’t they meant to be some of the worst types of players to draft, because so many of them fail to make the grade? Injuries, for a start?

Oilers draft one of the better 2nd round picks in the draft, in the 1st round lol