Northern Lights dancing at Turtle Lake, SK. Photo by Todd Kirkpatrick
When I was a kid growing up 17 miles north of Maidstone (probably 80 clicks from Turtle Lake) I would stand and watch in wonder as the Northern Lights moved across the sky. My friend Bruce McCurdy, a guest tomorrow on the Lowdown, told me many years later that mid-70’s was an especially electric for the lights in that part of the world and my memory and imagination concur. What a lovely moment caught by Mr. Kirkpatrick, and I thank him for sharing.
THE OILERS USE THE CAP SMARTLY
Oilers management made several strong moves ahead of the official start of the season. Now, if Evander Kane goes to LTIR, the organization has optimized its impact. I’m not certain it will be used, but the groundwork has been laid in case of a setback in Kane’s recovery. I’d place this in a ‘set it and forget it’ on the shelf that is the 2024-25 season. A nothing burger until it’s a heart attack on a plate burger.
I think we know the actual opening night roster, and Travis Dermott’s signing should come in the hours before Game 1.
The nature of observing the Oilers all these years, and the Chiarelli vibe I get from Stan Bowman, has at least a few nerve endings fretting over a trade for Cam Fowler in the hours to come. Silly me.
I’m pleased the club signed Cameron Wright. In January 2024 I wrote “The Condors have several AHL contracts worth discussing as potential NHL signings during the next several months. Chief among them is 25-year-old winger Cameron Wright. In 18 AHL games this season, he has scored six times and has 11 points. He’s physical, wins battles and owns an even-strength goal share (10-8, 55 percent) that leads the way among AHL-only contracts.”
In the January 2024 FARM WORKERS article here at Lowetide, I wrote “This might be the most interesting group. College players on the Condors roster (among prospects) are Savoie, Carl Berglund, Ethan de Jong and Cameron Wright. Why is this group interesting? Cameron Wright. He leads Condors players in even-strength goals, he is one of the reasons the prospect wingers can’t get prime time, and he is noticeable in every game. He is 25. I’d sign him, because he is a bull. I also like de Jong, who plays a more subtle game but has been successful as a rookie pro. On defense, Phil Kemp remains a quality player in the AHL, his outscoring numbers are quality again this year. I don’t know if he’ll make the NHL, another college man (Vincent Desharnais) ate his lunch it seems. Still, good to see Kemp playing well enough for recall consideration.”
Wright may get at-bats ticketed for Raphael Lavoie in the season to come. A quick mention of Lavoie seems appropriate. I hope he does well in Vegas, the quick release is going to find a hockey home where he will grow into legend. I just don’t know if it’s Vegas, or the even the NHL. I do know he was not a fit for the Oilers roster, and the club has been bleeding young talent all summer. I also know this isn’t terribly unusual for a new management team. I well remember the quick exit of Teemu Hartikainen when new management took over. Hartikainen had the look of an NHL contributor, as does Lavoie. I cheer for all of them, no matter the laundry, as that is my way.
Yesterday’s flurry of transactions probably amounts to little in the grand scheme of things. I think Oilers fans can say the management group is making sound decisions and pre-planning for all manner of possibilities on the long road to glory.
A good time is certain today on the Lowdown, Sports 1440 beginning at noon. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join me to talk about roster shuffling and what it could mean. We’ll also chat MLB playoffs, NFL season finally coming into view and the NBA ratcheting up for another campaign. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Any updates yet on what Holloway and Broberg had for a pregame meal?
You nailed it!
I’m not sure he ever plays an NHL game. Then again, I said the same thing about Vinny Deharnais.
So management has set up to maximize LTIR space if they ever want to use it.
Presuming Kane is put on LTIR today as expected, the Oilers will be able to exceed the $88MM cap limit by $5.125MM less the $53 in cap space – while Kane remains on LTIR.
To be clear, if the Oilers are using the LTIR reserves and are going over the cap, they would have to fit in the entire AAV being acquired – not only the portion of is left in the season – a $5MM AAV at the deadline would require the full $5MM.
With that said, while the Oilers are under the $88MM cap, they will indeed accrue cap space and be able to acquire players with relation to how much of their cap hit is left in the season.
The Oilers will likely be around $1MM – $1.1MM under the cap to start and, if no roster changes were made all season, they’d be able to acquire apx $5MM of AAV at the deadline.
Of course, there is zero chance the roster won’t change, there will be injuries that force call ups and reduce the unused cap space. Chances are, if they never go in to LTIR they will have quite a bit less than $5MM at the deadline – maybe $2MM, maybe $3MM – impossible to know.
The amount of accrued cap space will certainly be less than the amount they can go over the cap in LTIR but, of course, using that space is contingent on Kane not being activated during the regular season – and we are far from knowing that.
There is the possibility of using that accrued cap space just before the deadline, be it $1MM or $3MM or whatever and then, AFTER that acquisition is made, using the $5.1MM they can go over the cap in a second acquisition – of course, contingent on knowing they won’t be activating Kane, if they get there.
A little more on Skinner:
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1807911902674108920?lang=en
How often do you see a player in the 96th percentile for EV offence and 0th percentile for EV defence?
I’m not judging, I’m saying this is going to be fun as hell to watch. This is like that moment in It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, where the Gang actually hatches a scheme that has a reasonable chance of success (private garbage pick up during a garbage strike). Frank says to the Gang, no wildcard shit. Later in the episode, after the Gang has had some success with their latest scheme, Charlie, in the back of a moving van filled with garbage bags, randomly yells out “Wildcard bitches!” and jumps out from the back with the garbage bags.
Jeff Skinner is our Charlie. He is the wild card.
I’m here for it. This is so stupid it just may work!
He needs to be the Charlie in “Charlie Work” episode.
Does he need to play some sweet D(ee)?
“Charlie work” is my favourite episode. Classic
Mine is the “CharDee MacDennis” episode.
He’s in a limo, with a date and a driver, but he might have swallowed too many blood pills, the outcome might get messy.
That 0% on defense is pretty much where Kane lives too
As a coach, I can work immediately and effectively with two types of players (the rest are rewarding as well but take more work and figuring out). The smart, complete player (for obvious reasons), and guys like Jeff Skinner. It is straightforward. He knows what he does. You can tell everyone else what he does.
“Everyone – this is Jeff…his job is to be right over here and if you get him the puck he will put it in that net. GET JEFF THE PUCK. HERE.”
Some coaches overcomplicate and “wish” for players to become things they aren’t. I hope Knoblauch is not that type.
The Flames didn’t want Brett Hull…I mean, come on…
Oilers Jeff Skinner 🤝 Penguins Phil Kessel
Not sure if it has been talked about, but I believe Jeff Skinner was one of the first players to break into the NHL with truly exceptional edge work. Which, of course, is now the standard and has been exceeded by the McDavids and Kaprizovs of the world.
At Skinner’s time, it was unusual for a player to have a background in figure skating. He translated that to the NHL, which was even rarer/stranger. When he broke in, Gary Roberts was still convincing players not to bench press and focus on exercises that would increase explosiveness on the ice. We’ve come a long way.
Back to Skinner. I’ve heard/seen some criticisms of his skating, which seem to focus more on straight away speed. But a deceptive skater can be “faster” than a fast one. Elite edge work can go a long way, and is a skill that I would suspect fades less than speed does with age. I love McLeod and loved watching him skate, but you could kind of tell where he was going to go.
Anyways, I am looking forward to seeing Skinner’s skating (and finishing) for myself tomorrow evening.
I don’t know figure skaters were teaching hockey players power skating classes when I was kid playing.
And I’m an old, old, old bastard.
The glory Oilers had a lady teaching them figure skating, for edgework
When you watch his hilights its a lot of goals where he’s found space in tight whereas a guy his size would normally struggle to get to the net. His skating is exceptional.
Puckpedia expecting Dermott to be signed tomorrow. Players cannot be sent down today (only call-ups are permitted). They can send players down tomorrow and make room for Dermott.
Puckpedia expert is to be a 2-way deal which really means nothing for our purposes – he’s still need waivers to go down.
Ever forward, I say. I am looking forward to the season opener. I think Winnipeg is a good team to start with. They are a bubble playoff team (imo) with good goaltending and they play with pace. The Oilers will need to be on their toes to get a win.
One more day of practice to prepare for that, along with any of the final roster tweaks the Lavoie loss causes.
I’m ready for the hockey to begin.
The organization bleeds youth
We lost the 2020 10th, gained the 2019 10th.
We traded 25 yo McLeod for 20 yo Savoie.
Lost 23 yo broberg, gained 24 yo embersen
Lost 24 yo lavoie to waivers (a shame) and gain 26 yo philp.
Lost Desharnais, 28yo (loved that guy, bit many did not) and ceci 30 yo gained stecher/Brown 30yo each.
Of all those transactions we gained overall 1 year in age.
I am all for discussing the bleeding of speed and talent, but not sure about the bleeding of youth narrative. Or at least not this off season, with this current new regime.
Forgot foegle (28) for arvidsson (31)/ skinner 30. Thats 3 more years lets say for a total of +4
For me, it’s the poor asset management. If you are going to let high picks whither on the vine trade the players earlier or trade the picks.
Losing two first rounders and a second round pick that the team invested years of development time into for basically nothing is brutal. Better to trade the players/picks while the team still has leverage.
First, i just want to say i try to seperate regimes in terms of how they handle assets. This regime already looks a bit different than the last.
Its true that we lost all those 3 players for nothing. Which sucks.
But, when were we ever in a position to trade these players? Our intent was to sign them, then the offer sheet comes. Theres no trading them after that. And Lavoie, i mean i wanted him on the roster, because i dont beleice in Perry. But not sure anyone is trading for him either. Not near the waiver wire. So what does this regime have as options? The only option i see is keep lavoie in the line up.
(I mean we can discuss holland more, but man it feels like we’ve done that already)
Also trading the picks? That certainly isn’t the solution.
If you consistently give away prospects, then trading picks is the solution. Wilson built great teams in San Jose by trading tons of picks. Same with Vegas. There are many ways to acquire talent.
I don’t believe there’s a reasonable argument that allows the loss of Broberg and Holloway to be anything close to normal business for a professional sports franchise. It was a sports version of getting caught with your pants down.
Oilers management owns it. All of them. No cover anywhere and the sun beats down forever. Not a cloud in the sky.
Certainly offer sheets are not normal business practice in the NHL. And St. Louis played it beautifully by the way.
My original question is this: are jackson and bowman bleeding youth? I dont think so. Talent and skill and speed. Thats the discussion.
Well Bowman has been on the job for 11 minutes. Jackson, like every manager I’ve ever tracked, undervalues what is inherited.
That said, the question for me is “does this team represent an improvement” and I think we have to see.
I like the cap management so far, Emberson looks like he can contribute and I really like the forwards.
If winning the Stanley coincides with burning down the mission that includes the team’s youth? I mean, I don’t think it’s wise but this team needs to win a Stanley Cup so if someone wants Matt Savoie at the deadline I don’t think they should hesitate to make a deal that helps.
I’ve said this before but 10 years ago we would have blocked shots in the nude (to borrow a phrase) to see the Oilers in the position they’re in now, and now that we’re there, it appears many are going to fret about fringe players.
The words written about Brown in the last week could fill a book and he’s now off the roster, and last I checked, Holloway and Broberg also have to have a desire to sign (for a reasonable rate) in Edmonton for Edmonton to sign them.
Yes, the Oilers lost some young talent. They also added young talent and recouped picks. Before we put the nail in the coffin of the guys we’ve added and elevate those we’ve lost to Hall of Fame status, let’s maybe watch them play a game or two?
For me Bro is 95% on Holland, 5% on JJ, 0% on Bowman. Bro was unhappy for a long time, and they as usual couldn’t make a call on him and screwed the whole thing up and lost him. I’m not sure it was possible to sign him after using him in playoffs. At least they got picks, usually they let the guy walk or trade them for peanuts
Holloway, I’m not sure. He described his own wrist as ‘mangled’, that may have played into why they were slow with him. I think they knew both were getting sheets soon after playoffs, at least. It’s a small closed community, even if they don’t tell us the truth about things
The loss of Holloway is tough because he wanted to be here and they should have found a way to make it work
The loss of Broberg is very much expected as he didn’t want to be here and there’s absolutely no way we were going to pay even half of what he got. So only thing I would say it was unfortunate that they didn’t flip him sooner.
I think you over exaggerate. For me it’s all about making the money work and allowing for the obvious flexibility of this roster. Essentially, they can go into the season with a 23-man roster including Kane and accrue cap space and they can also put Kane on LTIR, free up more cap space and still accrue. It’s been an amazing off season with ups & downs. But with those downs they’ve responded with a resounding positive response. Which is a credit to this management team.
Will Lavoie be on waivers today (or soon). Some thing that Vegas was not planning on getting two successful claims.
To clarify some misinformation, the Oilers do NOT have a ROFR, the claim order is the same. If he is waved and the Oilers are the only claim (likely) they will be able to send him to Bako.
Vegas did lose Aston-Reese to waiver so this probably does not happen.