Northern Lights dancing at Turtle Lake, SK. Photo by Todd Kirkpatrick
When I was a kid growing up 17 miles north of Maidstone (probably 80 clicks from Turtle Lake) I would stand and watch in wonder as the Northern Lights moved across the sky. My friend Bruce McCurdy, a guest tomorrow on the Lowdown, told me many years later that mid-70’s was an especially electric for the lights in that part of the world and my memory and imagination concur. What a lovely moment caught by Mr. Kirkpatrick, and I thank him for sharing.
THE OILERS USE THE CAP SMARTLY
Oilers management made several strong moves ahead of the official start of the season. Now, if Evander Kane goes to LTIR, the organization has optimized its impact. I’m not certain it will be used, but the groundwork has been laid in case of a setback in Kane’s recovery. I’d place this in a ‘set it and forget it’ on the shelf that is the 2024-25 season. A nothing burger until it’s a heart attack on a plate burger.
I think we know the actual opening night roster, and Travis Dermott’s signing should come in the hours before Game 1.
The nature of observing the Oilers all these years, and the Chiarelli vibe I get from Stan Bowman, has at least a few nerve endings fretting over a trade for Cam Fowler in the hours to come. Silly me.
I’m pleased the club signed Cameron Wright. In January 2024 I wrote “The Condors have several AHL contracts worth discussing as potential NHL signings during the next several months. Chief among them is 25-year-old winger Cameron Wright. In 18 AHL games this season, he has scored six times and has 11 points. He’s physical, wins battles and owns an even-strength goal share (10-8, 55 percent) that leads the way among AHL-only contracts.”
In the January 2024 FARM WORKERS article here at Lowetide, I wrote “This might be the most interesting group. College players on the Condors roster (among prospects) are Savoie, Carl Berglund, Ethan de Jong and Cameron Wright. Why is this group interesting? Cameron Wright. He leads Condors players in even-strength goals, he is one of the reasons the prospect wingers can’t get prime time, and he is noticeable in every game. He is 25. I’d sign him, because he is a bull. I also like de Jong, who plays a more subtle game but has been successful as a rookie pro. On defense, Phil Kemp remains a quality player in the AHL, his outscoring numbers are quality again this year. I don’t know if he’ll make the NHL, another college man (Vincent Desharnais) ate his lunch it seems. Still, good to see Kemp playing well enough for recall consideration.”
Wright may get at-bats ticketed for Raphael Lavoie in the season to come. A quick mention of Lavoie seems appropriate. I hope he does well in Vegas, the quick release is going to find a hockey home where he will grow into legend. I just don’t know if it’s Vegas, or the even the NHL. I do know he was not a fit for the Oilers roster, and the club has been bleeding young talent all summer. I also know this isn’t terribly unusual for a new management team. I well remember the quick exit of Teemu Hartikainen when new management took over. Hartikainen had the look of an NHL contributor, as does Lavoie. I cheer for all of them, no matter the laundry, as that is my way.
Yesterday’s flurry of transactions probably amounts to little in the grand scheme of things. I think Oilers fans can say the management group is making sound decisions and pre-planning for all manner of possibilities on the long road to glory.
A good time is certain today on the Lowdown, Sports 1440 beginning at noon. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join me to talk about roster shuffling and what it could mean. We’ll also chat MLB playoffs, NFL season finally coming into view and the NBA ratcheting up for another campaign. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Capacity at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, 16200.
Last night’s attendance, 11,100. Hmmmmm.
It was considered a sellout for hockey so maybe they aren’t selling some of the obstructed view seats.
Utah will have a new arena prior to the 2034 Olympics, not sure the timing but I think they’ll have it within 3-4 years.
Apparently for the attendance count, they only counted the unobstructed seats. Still problematic, but a different issue than lack of attendees.
Dylan Guenther scores the first goal in Utah history on a sweet feed from Michael Kesselring.
With Kane injured, Holloway and McLeod gone, how worried are you folks over the bottom six forward group?
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
Podkolzin – Ryan – Perry
For me, this is pretty close to the decade of darkness called and they want their 3rd and forth lines back.
You folks?
I think Henrique is still quite good. Brown too.
Ryan and Perry should be 13th forwards.
Podz and Janmark seem like fine 4th line players.
So yeah, I guess I am somewhat worried.
That said, I think Perry and Ryan get replaced fairly soon with Savoie and Philp.
Yes. Except Savoie does not have a 4th line skillset. He needs 2nd or 3rd line minutes with someone currently on these lines moving down.
Indeed. That’s what I meant but was too lazy to write.
Yeah, we need Savoie to push someone down and Kane to come back to round out the top 9 forward lines.
Corey Perry scores very well for 4th line player.
He’s also got some pure evil in him and I value that in a hockey player.
Wow.
Henrique and Brown have been top 6 forwards for most/all of their careers, so no I don’t feel like the group is DoD comparable.
Brown had 4 goals and 12 points in 71 games last season.
I don’t think he’s a top six player at this point.
I always saw him as more of a guy who was more of a third liner playing up the line up because he brought energy.
Kassian is a poor analogy due to playing style, but Kassian was a bit like that in his prime where he could play in the top six for stretches, but no one would really have called him a top six player.
He did, and it was by far the worst production of his career.
His next worst season was a (very respectable for 3rd line) 14-14-28 stat line seven years back. His 4-8-12 season last year was clearly injury impacted. I don’t think that can even be argued.
Whatever he looked like, he scored at a 50 point pace each of his three seasons in Ottawa (immediately before his injury).
Unlike Kassian, he wasn’t benefiting from TOI with star players, and he finished 2nd, 1st, and 5th in 5v5 P/60 the three years.
However he managed it, Brown was a top 6 scoring forward in the NHL before his injury.
(He was actually 78th in the league in 5v5 goals and 75th in 5v5 points during his three year Ottawa career. With Tkachuk, Paul, Tierney, Pageau as his most common linemates)
Anyway, when you add in ‘energy’ and ‘speed’ and that sounds like a heck of a 3rd liner.
Maybe you’re right that at age 30 that player is gone though. We’ll have to wait and see. I still don’t see DoD.
I think Adam Henrique’s production last year alone was > about 25% of the 2010-2011’s Oilers forward group and their entire NHL careers point production combined.
Henrique went from 0.7 ppg in Anaheim where he played 2 minutes + per night on the power play to just 0.4 ppg on the Oilers.
Which is much, much better than MacIntyre, JF Jacques, Reddox, Frasers, Stortini and Alexandre Giroux’s ppg on the Oilers.
Henrique has 65 goals over his last 3 seasons.
I think the third line should be one of the best in the league. Hopefully someone takes Janmark spot on merit and he can move to the fourth line where he belongs.
Fourth lines playing 6-8 minutes per night don’t have much affect on the outcome most games, so as long as we have nhl level players on the line, should be fine
Janmark is not a 3rd liner, for sure.
Last season, Janmark and Brown each had 4 goals and 12 points from 71 games during the regular season.
There’s no way that’s the best 3rd line in the league. Top 10 would even be hyperbole.
The Dallas 3rd line is Benn-Bourque-Stankhoven
60 points-AHL MVP-.58 P/GP
The Dallas Stars were eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a 2-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final.
I don’t believe you actually remember how bad the DoD teams were………Let me throw some names….
Petrell
Jones
Eager
Belanger
Brown
Smithson
Hordichuk
Gordon
Acton
joensuu
Hendricks
Klinkhammer
Gazdic…
I mean, there is zero comparison to the team now vs the DoD team’s 3rd and 4th lines…..what was McTavish quote on the 4th line? “The best you could hope for is an even result” something along those lines….
Oiler fans can be a panicky bunch….
I think it’s fair that I can be a fan of this hockey team while not being a fan of the current bottom six lineup?
I’m not sure why everyone else is so much more enthusiastic? Am I on the wrong page, folks?
Let’s look under the hood at last year’s PPG
Janmark – 0.169
Henrique = 0.62 (0.4 as Oiler)
Brown – 0.169
Podkolzin – 0.105
Ryan – 0.17
Perry – 0.41 (0.34 as Oiler)
What am I missing?
I think it’s just that the DoD Oilers were so catastrophically bad that it seems a bit hyperbolic to compare the bottom 6 of these current Oilers to the DoD Oilers who would have probably grabbed Lavoie off waivers and hoped he could play on the 1st or 2nd line.
Your Podz/Ryan/Perry line looks scary, but at least the Oilers have some young players to call up and could reasonably replace them.
DoD Oilers were picking up players who were barely AHL quality to fill their bottom 6 (and at times, their top 6).
Numerous things by my eye.
It was brought up earlier, it’s expected and realistic that Savoie and Philp would replace Perry and Ryan by the seaons end. Move Janmark down to fourth line, Savoie with Brown and Henrique.
Brown’s number is likely to increase/bounce back. Took him about 7 months of playing to regain form, and has consistently posted 3rd line numbers.
Lastly, there’s much more to hockey than simply PPG. How many of these players kill penalties? The same PK that had historic historic success last post season.
End of season:
Podkolzin-Henrique-Savoie
Janmark-Philp-Brown
or Kane-Henrique-Savoie
or if Savoie really pops maybe he is on the second line and Arvidsson is on the third line.
Isn’t more useful to average the previous three seasons than just looking at the last season?
That’s a great question. Statistically, sure it gives you a stronger sample size.
However, player’s offensive production declines with age, so you’re going to mask any age related decline.
Rob Vollman summarizes this quite well in his book Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics:
Henrique – 34
Brown – 30
Janmark – 31
Ryan – 37
Perry – 39
The most recent season method makes sense given the players age. In this case, I’m not sure it’s ideal though.
One season does not take into account Browns injury. He spent most of last season getting back up to game speed. I would expect an increase in Brown’s production.
Also a quick look at janmark shows a player who had never had less than 21 points in a season until last year. He’s only 31 years old and doesn’t play a violent game. I think it’s reasonable to expect bounce back there too.
The offseason just flew by. I cannot believe the season opener is tomorrow.
I predict Jeff Skinner barely moves, as per usual, and scores a hattrick.
Panthers pumping the Bruins 4-1 after 1. Two short handed goals. Geez I hate the Panthers…..
Could easily be 6-1 considering the chances.
Ya, screw you Flames… you’re no longer worthy of our hate. There’s a new kid on hate street and he goes by Panther.
I still hate the Flames.
Some things are always thus!
Bowman (on with Gregor):
1) Essentially confirms they will put a claim in for Lavoie – final decision will be made by tomorrow.
2) Going to start with 12 forwards on roster – easy enough to call someone up when injuries hit. Its good to have some flexibility to move guys in and out but, at this point, they want to accrue as much as possible. There won’t be alot of extra bodies around this season.
3) Need Josh Brown to get his game where we know it can get to. He didn’t play his best. He’s got more. For this moment in time, this is the best decision but he’s not forgotten about. Its a long season. We’ll use alot of player.
4) Like every team at this time of year, he likes the team on paper and will need to see how it plays out to determine what they might want to add.
5) Special Teams and Goaltending are important – they can keep you in games when the team is playing the best. With that said, need to be a good 5 on 5 team. Need to manage the game and not just be high-octane offence all the time. Need to be able to defend and to score when not in transition.
6) As camp went on and the competition went up, Dermott elevated. He’s a very stable player that can simplify the game. Versatile – both side as option is appealing. Knows how to play in the league. A simple player that can be a stabilizing force wherever he’s used.
7) Had no expectations of Wright. Had a good camp. Part of the decision was cap-related but he earned the contract based on performance. Wasn’t looking out for him but kept noticing him. Expect him to be a strong player in Bako.
8) Philp was excellent in all of camp – pleasantly surprised given the year off and without an NHL pedigree. Fantastic kid. Upbeat attitude. Kind of guy you like to have around. Brings energy to the room. He could certainly be playing tomorrow night but they don’t want him to be in Edmonton and be a scratch. Like the 12 forwards we are starting with but performance and/or injury can change that an no issues bringing Noah up. Will play alot of minutes in Bako. Will certainly play for us this year.
Why announce you intend to put a waiver claim in? Where is the benefit in doing so?
Pretty sure other teams know whether another team is putting in a waiver claim. So what’s the benefit in not doing so?
He didn’t say they were putting in a claim but said they never wanted to lose him but were hoping to place him in the AHL. If there is an opportunity to get him back, they’ll discuss it.
I don’t see any issue, of course they are going to be put a claim back in and I’m sure all 31 other teams believe the same.
Got it. Not sure about the second part though. Doesn’t seem like player or team has much love for each other. Lavoie was probably thrilled when Vegas put in a waiver claim. I know I would have been.
From the team’s perspective, it may be worthwhile to keep him for one more look … he’s had his second opinion from another organization now … hopefully getting waived over the likes of Cole Schwindt will be the humble pie that gets him playing with more pace. If not, then he’s probably playing in Europe next season, or getting signed to an AHL deal if he want’s to stay in North America.
Any player on waivers would usually be thrilled by a claim – it generally allows them to stay in the league.
I’m sure Lavoie was pissed that he was re-waived as it highly likely means he’s heading to Bako – 18 teams already passed on him and I don’t see the teams after Vegas in the claim order looking to place him on their NHL roster.
Broberg scores to tie the game at 2
Holloway with an assist.
The Broberg goal:
https://www.nhl.com/video/stl-sea-broberg-scores-ppg-against-philipp-grubauer-6363003213112
Bad Goal.
They all count.
They do. However I find that players that don’t score mostly clean goals (shots or dekes) let you down when the chips are down in playoffs, because luck is more a part than skill. For D, when Bouch scores he usually beats goalies clean, they can’t stop him
Puljujarvi is a prime example. He would get a few and everyone (including me) would hope it was starting. Thing is they were off his butt or fluky bounces and he couldn’t sustain
Just to play devils advocate here. Broberg scored a massive goal for the oilers in the playoffs last spring against Dallas in a crucial game. Beat the goalie clean from distance on a half slapper off the faceoff. His goal tonight was a great shot that didn’t beat the goalie clean but he put it right where he meant to.
Yes…he absolutely picked the corner…it would have been a tough save for Grubauer although he almost got there.
Picked the corner HH? Wow. That was a BIG corner. And if it was an Oiler who scored, you would be talking like any person in the world could of potted that goal and how terrible the goalie was. DSF: defying sanity forever. Mr. Agenda
For sure. But it’s a long way to established for any prospect which I guess Bro still is. I liked his shot, gets it off hard without a huge back swing
The devil’s advocates here are those who are unwilling to call management out for the gross mismanagement of good young assets (e.g. younger players who are developed and have tremendous upside). The Oilers are going to pay dearly this year for giving up key young players for nothing. I am going to celebrate the successes of Broberg and Holloway all year long even though I remain an Oiler fan.
My lord, on pace for 82 goals and on a $4.6 mil value contract. Better start banging the Norris drum. Question: Is Broberg better than Rafferty?
Rafferty is immortal.
The problem with Broberg is he’s a little too tall and could use a few pounds
He’s now listed at 212.
And he’s starting to look a bit like Chris Pronger out there…. Or is that just the St. Louis jersey fooling me.
Not sure Chris Pronger had many nights where he was 14-27 Coris and an expected goal share of 23%…..
We shall see who is right about this one. Time will tell. I think it would have been wiser to bet on Broberg an Holloway than on Jeff Skinner and Josh Brown.
The plan was to bet on all four until the former two signed contracts that were not reflective of their market value – it was a disappointing and hurtful day.
He has a habit of allowing himself to be vulnerable to a big hit. I would be shocked if him or Holloway make it through the year unscathed.
My concern too. Hopefully he is a quick learner. Would be a shame if his career was ended early.
I see what you did there….Bob Seger. Smooth.
I’m a team guy, and a generational or elite player guy
Others like to cheer for anyone that was on the team. Me, I wish them the best personally, and hope the Oilers punk them when they play, and always stay above their teams
Rivalry is the biggest part of sports, the essence. Nothing communal or sharing about it. Win everything, all of the time. This is the way
The last 35 years must have been very painful for you.
As have the last 35 years for you based on your daily Oilers hate posting.
Probably not as painful as it must be to you on the daily. So sad.
Only when having to parse your posts…why are you here, exactly? Just like the soup better when you get to piddle in the pot?
There it is.
Maximize the LTIR space if they ever want/need to use it and, in the meantime, be under the cap and accrue and bank.
That’s an impressive piece of business there. Not sure we’ve had cap smarts before.
Truth.
It sure beats the time that they signed Vladimir Tkachev to a contract they weren’t permitted to, and admitted that they did it because they didn’t read all the way through that part of the CBA.
If we are going to do updates, half way though the 2nd period, the Blues are down 2-0 and Holloway is rocking a -1 and Broberg a 4-19 Coris….
Both those contracts will be impossible to live up to
You seem to enjoy tempting fate 🙂 Please be less like that other guy, not more.
And then
Looks like you have the update thing nailed … lot’s of talk when it fits the narrative but then crickets when it doesn’t. Definitely mid-season form. But then again, you had the advantage of learning from the master.
Dermott signs a one year, two-way for league minimum.
Right on. He’s a young veteran journeyman D nothing flashy quietly does his job.
Congrats to Eberle for being named Captain of the Kraken
Vegas are fools. If they held onto Lavoie a bit longer they could have made a few Lavoie jersey sales from some Lowetidians. Do they just hate making money?
— Re : Northern Lights. Growing up in YK: the northern lights were a thing of beauty (way better than Saskatchewan I am told : haha!)
— Anyway my best friend up there, his Dad was Inuit, his Mom whitebread Canadian. His Dad told us that the Inuit believe that in the strongest Northern Lights one can not only see them but also hear them.
— He tells us this as we are driving along the ice road on Great Slave Lake to the community of Dettah in the dark, one night when it’s a spectacular display. He pulls off the road, kills the lights and we go outside. The Northern lights magical.
— Them he whispers to us two impressed 11 year olds: “shhh. Can you hear that”?
— “what the northern lights?!” We exclaim.
— Blair’s dad laughs and says “No it’s a snowmobile in the distance” and he laughed as hard as I had heard a grown up laugh before.
— Only now as a Dad do i appreciate that moment. Blair and I still talk about that “Northern Lights snowmobile”.
I grew up in far NE Alberta where auroras were common in the winter and can attest they sometimes were audible.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/jan/05/noises-of-the-northern-lights-weatherwatch
Interesting stuff – thanks for sharing.
My experiences in an outdoor cedar hot tub watching both Saturday night games……… if its -49 ish cold, and the lights are strong, I could absolutely hear them crackle…in Saskatoon !!
— are you sure that wasnt the crack of beers opening?!!
— you have to be really far away from any civilization in order to hear them : not possible in a city where sound bounces off cloud coverage etc.
hey Klinger, no beer, been dry since 84,
if it’s -40 it’s obviously a clear sky….
lights were bright and crackle as they move about. Many great Saturday nights spent watching a small black and white TV under those fabulous lights
I grew up in the far north of Sweden and we used to head out into the middle of nowhere during really good auroras and listen to them crack. Amazing feeling to stand in the middle of a forest or on some mountain top far off the beaten track on an ice cold night, the snow muffling all sounds, looking up.at these beautiful lights with the crackling and your own breathing the only thing you hear. Incredible.
When my kid gets old enough I’ll definitely bring him out for that experience.
— ah: that explains my “connection” I feel with you albeit on a blog and your perspectives.
— I’ve found over my life that people who grew up in the True Great North but subsequently move and live in larger cities have a different “je ne sais quoi” that living in the vastness of the North its quietness and remoteness. 24 hours of dark and 24 hours of sun.
There were some pretty good evenings in Edmonton in the 70’s and early 80’s, about when Bruce said the activity was high
I lived in Cold Lake on the air force base from 1969-1974 right beside the Sask border and man was it cold in January and Feb. The northern lights would dance and crack across the nightime sky in all their magnificent colours…Beautiful and freaking cold!
We may have crossed paths.
I was there until 1970.
One subject I haven’t seen much talk about is the need to sign Emberson before he becomes a Group VI free agent.
In order to ensure that he does not qualify as a Group VI UFA Emberson must play a minimum of 50 games this season. Should he remain healthy that is unlikely to be an issue but if injury strikes it could end the Oilers control over his contract.
The other issue is cost. Does it make sense to sign him before proving that he can handle 2RD and try and get a lower cap hit now in return for some security or do they wait to be sure and risk driving up the ask?
Anybody here who has seen enough through TC to offer an opinion? I only got to see bits and pieces so I am looking for input. Thanks.
I think the Oilers would love to sign a low-cost extension right now but I can’t see Emberson signing it unless it was a significant amount like 1.5-2M on a 1-year deal. I don’t think Group VI will come into play because even if he does get hurt, the Oilers have exclusive negotiating rights until July 1st and would certainly offer him a deal by then.
I think they will wait.
Its reasonably likely that he gets to 50 games and they will want to get a look at him for a couple of months.
I can’t believe the Golden Knights would waive a future stud in Lavoie.
Maybe he isn’t a future stud.
Sarcasm.
Is that because he’s a current stud? 🤣
It appears a major reset of goaltender salaries could be in the works.
First Saros signs for $7.5 million in Nashville.
Swayman gets $8.25 million in Boston.
And now Shesterkin has rejected an 8x$11million extension in New York.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/report-shesterkin-rejected-eight-year-88m-deal-from-rangers/
Skinner?
Send Shesterkin back to Russia.
He wants $12.5M.
He might get $12 million.
The Rangers have very few other options.
Dont think they have the option of paying him 12 mil
They just offered him $11 million.
And he’s worth it.
Hockey is mostly goalie.
Shesterkin has 120+ goals saved above average in just over 4 seasons (including playoffs). Three more seasons like that, and he would be above the GSAA threshold at which most goalies are in the Hall of Fame.
Just now on the Florida/Boston broadcast, Elliote Friedman says Sheshterkin believes he should be the highest paid players on the Rangers and it’s tough to argue with him.
Panarin makes $11.65 million and signed that contract 6 seasons ago.
Skinner would need to win a Cup and backstop Team Canada to a first place win in the 4 Nations to build the kind of cache needed to get a similar deal to Swayman. I think most people still project him to be an average rather than elite starting goalie.
If he does it, then he’ll be worth every penny.
Swayman has done neither of those things.
He and Skinner are the same age and their stats are not that far apart.
I don’t disagree. But one guy (Swayman) has way more hype than the other guy, even though the other guy has had more success in the playoffs, and has already proven he can handle a heavy workload.
And yet Skinner doesn’t get the love from the media and fans that Swayman does.
I don’t think hype matters much in contract negotiations.
Agents will present comparables and unless the wheels fall off for Skinner and the fact that the cap will jump at least 10% by the time a new deal kicks in, it could be very pricey.
I would suggest that, in any ranking of goalies, this poster would have Skinner WELL below Swayman but, of course, talk about Skinner’s contract and they are right there together.
NHL GP
Skinner 123
Swayman 132
Skinner will likely surpass this as his backup is weaker.
W/L record
Skinner 72-36-10
Swayman 79-33-15
Save%
Skinner .910
Swayman .919
Swayman has a better save percentage but plays behind a superior defense.
It looks to me like they are excellent comparables.
If you were Skinner’s agent, what would you be asking for as an AAV knowing the cap will be 10% higher when his new contract kicks in?
Team or not the pay is based on stats, and .09 is a pretty big gap in SV% as in league top or average. Stu also has to get the low points under control. Top goalies don’t have to be put on the bench in playoffs much
This doesn’t derogate from the all but fact that you would only put them in a similar tier when discussing Skinner’s contract for you negative Oilers narrative – end stop.
Thanks, glad you agree we’ve got a really good young goaltender.
Its a matter of the number of games played, vs the number of games pulled and the number of games sat for the #2. Skinner has had his challenges so far (my goodness he is young though, and i am not worried). Who would sign skinner over Swayman given a similar price?
I love skinner, but hes not getting swayman money.
I think you are just creating discussion here. What would you sign skinner for, given his resume this far?
That’s exactly what I’m doing.
The question is not what I would sign him for right now but trying to project what he might sign for on a contract that kicks off in the 26/27 season IF the wheels don’t fall off.
If he were able to sign right now I would suggest something in the $5 million range but a 10% jump in the cap would bump that to near $6 million.
What would you do?
If it was now and for term, probably exactly as you suggest.
Agreed. I have been basing my projections on an extension at 5.75 to 6.5 for term. With Cap inflation, that is in line with the bulk of good starters not in the top 3 or so league wide. I have seen it discussed by various pundits/GM’s etc in the past couple of years that it is widely felt that goalies are up and down from year to year, except for the very top goalies (usually 2-4 of those in the league at anytime). the ones below that elite tier are in and out of the leader board from one season to the next and it is foolish to the extreme to overpay for a goalie who hasn’t cemented himself as an elite with multiple season’s of superior performance. Anybody remember the Net Detective… Jim Carey, for example?
Lavoie is on waivers today.
Oilers will for sure claim. They don’t not have a ROFR, same order as the other day.
If Oilers are the only claim, he can be assigned to Bako.
This is reasonably likely. All the teams ahead of Vegas already passed on him and the teams after Vegas were the top of the league from last year and unlikely to have a spot for Lavoie.
Bowman is owed apologies!
You called it OP!
So Vegas, who many around here hold in much higher esteem than our own management group, value Lavoie less than
Cole Schwindt?
Yesterday everyone around here seemed certain that Lavoie was about to become an NHL all-star with Vegas.
Not quite everyone.
The old “people are quicker to complain than to compliment” adage definitely gets a workout around here some days though.
As I said yesterday … his offence has been pretty pedestrian given his size and shot. There was a lot of hyperbole about him “ripping the cover off the ball.” 43 goals in 50 games … that’s what ripping the cover off the ball looks like. I’d rather have Fagamo than Lavoie, and Vegas would rather have Schwindt.
And stop it with “he didn’t get to play with skill” argument … enough with the entitlement. Zach Hyman broke into the league as a 4th liner and forced the issue by making every line he played on better.
Lavoie doesn’t play with the kind of pace and physicality needed to be an NHL player. He’s 24 now and hasn’t figured it out. I don’t see him having a future in the NHL.
Pretty much this.
So they should trade him then. Get a return at least rather than losing him for nothing. Even if it’s another teams failed prospect, or a 5th round pick.
When they get him back, every team will have passed on him – he will essentially have zero trade value.
He MAY have a tiny bit of trade value given he’ll be assignable to the AHL but not for a draft pick – perhaps for another player that has also cleared waivers.
Yes, as I said another teams failed draft pick is an option. Once in awhile a change in scenery makes things click. Hopefully Edmonton gets him back and manages the asset better going forward.
Luck is not a sustainable strategy
Bad news takes the plane. Good news takes the bus.
That didn’t take long.
Can someone please explain what’s going on here? if the Oilers claim him, he can be sent down? so what’s Vegas thinking? makes no sense to me.
As I mentioned in the post, if the Oilers are the only claiming team then, yes, he can go to the AHL. That is likely as all the teams ahead of Vegas in the claim order already passed once and the team behind him were high standings teams last season and likely do not have room for Lavoie.
Vegas had two successful claims yesterday and don’t have room (or desire) to keep both on their roster, hence the waive today.
Lavoie will be back in the Bake where he belongs.
The likely outcome.
So we are not mad at Bowman now?. Nah we are. We just gotta figure out how to spin it.
It would be interesting if the Oilers don’t claim him. That would sure say something. No thanks, you keep him. I don’t think they will do that, but would be interesting.
I wasn’t sure if they should get him back. But, if this lights a fire under him, maybe he will get his ducks in a row, if he wants an NHL career
I can’t think of any reason why they shouldn’t get him back (if they are the only claim and can put him back in the AHL)…………….
I have never seen so many nights featuring a dancing aurora borealis as I have seen these past few months…
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
In Nobleton this afternoon to see Haoxi Wang, a 6-foot-6 D born in Beijing who recently committed to BU and is generating 2024 draft buzz with NHL scouts for his play in the OJHL to start the year (10 points in 10 games with the new King Rebellion).
https://x.com/scottcwheeler/status/1843709931582886038?s=61
This is interesting stuff. Thanks, oh great one.
No video on YouTube…but I like the pic on Elite Prospects
More info here.
http://terrierhockey.blogspot.com/2023/09/chn-top-ranked-terriers-defenseman-for.html
(you need to scroll down)
Could have misread but there seemed to be something on the wire saying Jet’s Hollybuck taking a leave for personal reasons.
Short term it seems.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/jets-connor-hellebuyck-misses-practice-should-rejoin-team-before-opener/
Per Rishaug, Skinner back in the top 6 today at practice.
Just guessing but I’m thinking a gentle nudge that practices on a contender are maybe taken more seriously than he is used to.
No Passengers.
Rob Brown predicted the Oilers will have two 50 goal scorers (didn’t say which two) and now Bob puts out his predictions and that includes zero 50 goal scorers (McDavid: 46, Drai: 40, Hyman: 37) – notable with Bouch at 22.
Bob does have Janmark at 10 goals and Brown at 12 which would be a massive increase over last season.
With all the preseason worry over the other Brown, I briefly assumed that prediction was about him. “Well that’s an easy under..” arrived in my brain shortly before “Oh, I’m an idiot.”
The complete list with attribution.
Stauffer @EdmontonOilers Projections:
McDavid: 46-84-130
Draisaitl: 40-68-108
Bouchard: 22-71-93
RNH: 31-47-78
Hyman: 37-36-73
Arvidsson: 23-27-50
Skinner: 27-21-48
Ekholm: 11-29-40
Nurse: 10-27-37
Henrique: 16-17-33
Brown: 12-13-25
Janmark: 10-11-21
Podkolzin: 10-7-17
https://x.com/bob_stauffer/status/1843680891597734140?s=61
HA! Nuge will be lucky to get to 49pts.
Perry & Ryan not mentioned.
About right on Janmark and Brown but too low on the A’s. Last year was outliers to the bad. They developed some chemistry and Henrique has a nice goal touch. Defense will also help out this duo.
Zilch from Perry? I’d put at least 8 from him. Closer to 10.
With the firepower they have and the state of the competition we’ll probably see five or six career years from our gents points wise.
He’s too low on goals for McDavid, Drai, Skinner and Hyman. Moar Goals across the board.
48 points is hilariously low with Skinner. Closer to 70.
McD, Drai, Bouch, Hyman, Ekholm, Nurse and Arvidsson are all likely to hit career highs. Emberson too but you know. Skinner will be in tight but needs some PP reps to get there.
Any updates yet on what Holloway and Broberg had for a pregame meal?
We’d have to ask Ken Holland, pretty sure he’s their agent now.
Brad has Holloway Ken has his signature pick Broberg.
Pretty sure godot will update us
I wonder why McLeod gets no love from the peanut gallery?
You nailed it!
I’m not sure he ever plays an NHL game. Then again, I said the same thing about Vinny Deharnais.
Perry is going to have to contribute. With the way they dealt with Brown, it’s obvious they don’t want any passengers. I could see them waiving Perry and calling up Cameron Wright.
Cameron Wright earned a contract but I would suggest there is ZERO chance he plays in the NHL this season – that would be the case even if he was at league min let alone the $952K cap hit he’d come with.
It was a pure cap structuring move – he’d be behind Philp, Lavoie, Hamblin, Pederson, Caggiula, Grubbe and Jarventie (when healthy).
He’s probably ahead of Petrov!
If not Wright, then someone else. The message is “NO PASSENGERS”.
Any idea when the last player that played in the E.C.H.L played meaningful games on our Big club?
Vincent Deharnais
Stuart Skinner
Wow I was drawing a blank how can I not remember Skinners path nevermind Vinny.
I think its much more common for goalies.
Yes that’s true lots of goalies go on quite a journey to make it having nerves of steel is a prerequisite.
So management has set up to maximize LTIR space if they ever want to use it.
Presuming Kane is put on LTIR today as expected, the Oilers will be able to exceed the $88MM cap limit by $5.125MM less the $53 in cap space – while Kane remains on LTIR.
To be clear, if the Oilers are using the LTIR reserves and are going over the cap, they would have to fit in the entire AAV being acquired – not only the portion of is left in the season – a $5MM AAV at the deadline would require the full $5MM.
With that said, while the Oilers are under the $88MM cap, they will indeed accrue cap space and be able to acquire players with relation to how much of their cap hit is left in the season.
The Oilers will likely be around $1MM – $1.1MM under the cap to start and, if no roster changes were made all season, they’d be able to acquire apx $5MM of AAV at the deadline.
Of course, there is zero chance the roster won’t change, there will be injuries that force call ups and reduce the unused cap space. Chances are, if they never go in to LTIR they will have quite a bit less than $5MM at the deadline – maybe $2MM, maybe $3MM – impossible to know.
The amount of accrued cap space will certainly be less than the amount they can go over the cap in LTIR but, of course, using that space is contingent on Kane not being activated during the regular season – and we are far from knowing that.
There is the possibility of using that accrued cap space just before the deadline, be it $1MM or $3MM or whatever and then, AFTER that acquisition is made, using the $5.1MM they can go over the cap in a second acquisition – of course, contingent on knowing they won’t be activating Kane, if they get there.
wouldn’t it make sense to go with only 6 Dman for as long as possible as well? That would double what is accrued until the inevitable injury comes along. last season didn’t we only lose something like 3 games to injury on defence?
Makes sense for cap accrual but I don’t think it makes practical sense.
I mean, they need to have at least one extra player or they run the real risk of playing short if an injury, illness, personal matter, etc. comes up day of.
Jason Strudwick said the other day that he was a healthy scratch over 200 times and only once did he play due to an emergency illness…seems to me its worth the cap space if once or twice a season they play with one player less while waiting for a call up…how many times have we seen a 12th forward only play 6-7 minutes anyway?
Starting a game with 11 forwards is fine. Starting a game with 5 defencemen is not. I’d do without the extra forward and carry 7 D. In a pinch, you could play Dermott up front on the wing. You couldn’t drop a winger back to Defence.
thats what they are doing..
I heard Struddy say that and I am still of the opinion they are going to carry 7 d-men.
Playing short a forward and short a d-man are not equatable.
And if they lose the dman to waivers?
I’m usually pretty good on this stuff OP, but could you flesh it out for me a touch? If they put Kane on LTIR is there a min. amount of time he has to be on there, or is it just for possible future usage?
I understand why they want to get $53 below the cap so they can max. out Kane’s salary in LTIR if/when they choose to do so. Meaning for today: Kane on LTIR, Savoie up for bonus reasons, Wright up to max. cap (less $53) & then tomorrow Savoie and Wright go back down, they sign Dermott and Kane comes off LTIR and cap accrual can begin. Or is Kane on LTIR until he’s healthy, and when he’s ready to return they have to shed his salary (either him or other players) to get them under? Thanks
When placed on LTIR, he has to stay there for a minimum of 10 games and 24 days – no problem there.
Kane will stay on LTIR and they will still accrue – just because a team has players on LTIR doesn’t mean they can’t accrue. The accrual stops if they ever dip in to the LTIR reserves and end up over their new adjusted cap (which, for the Oilers, is $88MM less $53.
They can accrue all year long (if they don’t go over $88MM) and then activate Kane when he’s ready.
Things change if they dip in to the LTIR reserves.
Thanks – there’s the ‘Aha’ I was missing. I didn’t realize you could still accrue if you had a player on LTIR. I had always had the impression you couldn’t – likely based on past Oiler seasons of being in LTIR hell, but that’s good news.
In the past, when the Oilers were in LTIR all season with Klefbom, they needed to put Klefbom on LTIR to get “cap compliant” and were over the cap all season long.
Today, with Kane on LTIR, the Oilers will have apx $1MM (just over) in regular cap space.
The have the ability to go over the cap by just under $5.125MM but, if they dipped in to that, the lose any previously banked cap space and need to fit in the entire AAV of any acquired player (and not just what’s left on that player’s cap hit for the year).
Have seen this mentioned a number of times.
I assume they don’t lose all accrued cap space if they go into LTIR for a time but then get back under the cap. They would only lose accrued cap it if they remain in LTIR. Is that correct?
That’s right, while they continue to operate in LTIR, the cap space calculation changes but, if they get out of LTIR operation (i.e. below their adjusted cap accrual limit of $88MM less $53), they are back in business vis-a-vis accruing and pro rating acquired AAVs.
A little more on Skinner:
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1807911902674108920?lang=en
How often do you see a player in the 96th percentile for EV offence and 0th percentile for EV defence?
I’m not judging, I’m saying this is going to be fun as hell to watch. This is like that moment in It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, where the Gang actually hatches a scheme that has a reasonable chance of success (private garbage pick up during a garbage strike). Frank says to the Gang, no wildcard shit. Later in the episode, after the Gang has had some success with their latest scheme, Charlie, in the back of a moving van filled with garbage bags, randomly yells out “Wildcard bitches!” and jumps out from the back with the garbage bags.
Jeff Skinner is our Charlie. He is the wild card.
I’m here for it. This is so stupid it just may work!
He needs to be the Charlie in “Charlie Work” episode.
Does he need to play some sweet D(ee)?
“Charlie work” is my favourite episode. Classic
Mine is the “CharDee MacDennis” episode.
I can’t narrow it down to one, my top picks by quick memory would be
The gang turns black
Dennis and Dee go to the welfare store
The gang gets analyzed
The nightman cometh
Mac and Dennis move to the suburbs
He’s in a limo, with a date and a driver, but he might have swallowed too many blood pills, the outcome might get messy.
NHL Injuries
Name: Jeff Skinner
POS: LW
Status: Day-To-Day
Comment: Touch of the consumption.
That 0% on defense is pretty much where Kane lives too
As a coach, I can work immediately and effectively with two types of players (the rest are rewarding as well but take more work and figuring out). The smart, complete player (for obvious reasons), and guys like Jeff Skinner. It is straightforward. He knows what he does. You can tell everyone else what he does.
“Everyone – this is Jeff…his job is to be right over here and if you get him the puck he will put it in that net. GET JEFF THE PUCK. HERE.”
Some coaches overcomplicate and “wish” for players to become things they aren’t. I hope Knoblauch is not that type.
The Flames didn’t want Brett Hull…I mean, come on…
Oilers Jeff Skinner 🤝 Penguins Phil Kessel
The Oilers’ other Skinner balances this out by contributing the lowest P/60, but is very useful at the other end of the rink.
it seems to me his elite finishing skills would match better with Connor and Nuge’s play making skills would match better with Leon’s shooting ability.. switch Skinner with Nuge to optimize that top 6 imo
I see this happening in short order.
I have said since July 1 that I think Skinner is a better fit for McDavid than Drai and think the Nuge and Skinner will flip before too long.
As far as Skinner and defence, of course, he is not a strong defensive player but, at the same time, he did not have a negative goal share in any of the last 3 seasons on a non-playoff team. He contributed to out-scoring.
Not sure if it has been talked about, but I believe Jeff Skinner was one of the first players to break into the NHL with truly exceptional edge work. Which, of course, is now the standard and has been exceeded by the McDavids and Kaprizovs of the world.
At Skinner’s time, it was unusual for a player to have a background in figure skating. He translated that to the NHL, which was even rarer/stranger. When he broke in, Gary Roberts was still convincing players not to bench press and focus on exercises that would increase explosiveness on the ice. We’ve come a long way.
Back to Skinner. I’ve heard/seen some criticisms of his skating, which seem to focus more on straight away speed. But a deceptive skater can be “faster” than a fast one. Elite edge work can go a long way, and is a skill that I would suspect fades less than speed does with age. I love McLeod and loved watching him skate, but you could kind of tell where he was going to go.
Anyways, I am looking forward to seeing Skinner’s skating (and finishing) for myself tomorrow evening.
I don’t know figure skaters were teaching hockey players power skating classes when I was kid playing.
And I’m an old, old, old bastard.
The glory Oilers had a lady teaching them figure skating, for edgework
I took power skating when I was in mites…it was just another way to get on the ice, is what I thought at the time. So wrong…I was already a good skater, but I became a really really good skater by learning some basic figure skating…did it for 2 years, the improvement was huge. It didn’t help my hands or my brain though, lol…you can’t fix “no toolkit”…:)
When you watch his hilights its a lot of goals where he’s found space in tight whereas a guy his size would normally struggle to get to the net. His skating is exceptional.
Puckpedia expecting Dermott to be signed tomorrow. Players cannot be sent down today (only call-ups are permitted). They can send players down tomorrow and make room for Dermott.
Puckpedia expert is to be a 2-way deal which really means nothing for our purposes – he’s still need waivers to go down.
I kind of expect to see Philp too.
Eventually but not to start the season unless there is an injury.
They will be going with 12 healthy forwards, 7D and 2G to start – I’m quite confident.
Ever forward, I say. I am looking forward to the season opener. I think Winnipeg is a good team to start with. They are a bubble playoff team (imo) with good goaltending and they play with pace. The Oilers will need to be on their toes to get a win.
One more day of practice to prepare for that, along with any of the final roster tweaks the Lavoie loss causes.
I’m ready for the hockey to begin.
The organization bleeds youth
We lost the 2020 10th, gained the 2019 10th.
We traded 25 yo McLeod for 20 yo Savoie.
Lost 23 yo broberg, gained 24 yo embersen
Lost 24 yo lavoie to waivers (a shame) and gain 26 yo philp.
Lost Desharnais, 28yo (loved that guy, bit many did not) and ceci 30 yo gained stecher/Brown 30yo each.
Of all those transactions we gained overall 1 year in age.
I am all for discussing the bleeding of speed and talent, but not sure about the bleeding of youth narrative. Or at least not this off season, with this current new regime.
Forgot foegle (28) for arvidsson (31)/ skinner 30. Thats 3 more years lets say for a total of +4
For me, it’s the poor asset management. If you are going to let high picks whither on the vine trade the players earlier or trade the picks.
Losing two first rounders and a second round pick that the team invested years of development time into for basically nothing is brutal. Better to trade the players/picks while the team still has leverage.
First, i just want to say i try to seperate regimes in terms of how they handle assets. This regime already looks a bit different than the last.
Its true that we lost all those 3 players for nothing. Which sucks.
But, when were we ever in a position to trade these players? Our intent was to sign them, then the offer sheet comes. Theres no trading them after that. And Lavoie, i mean i wanted him on the roster, because i dont beleice in Perry. But not sure anyone is trading for him either. Not near the waiver wire. So what does this regime have as options? The only option i see is keep lavoie in the line up.
(I mean we can discuss holland more, but man it feels like we’ve done that already)
Also trading the picks? That certainly isn’t the solution.
If you consistently give away prospects, then trading picks is the solution. Wilson built great teams in San Jose by trading tons of picks. Same with Vegas. There are many ways to acquire talent.
I don’t believe there’s a reasonable argument that allows the loss of Broberg and Holloway to be anything close to normal business for a professional sports franchise. It was a sports version of getting caught with your pants down.
Oilers management owns it. All of them. No cover anywhere and the sun beats down forever. Not a cloud in the sky.
Certainly offer sheets are not normal business practice in the NHL. And St. Louis played it beautifully by the way.
My original question is this: are jackson and bowman bleeding youth? I dont think so. Talent and skill and speed. Thats the discussion.
Well Bowman has been on the job for 11 minutes. Jackson, like every manager I’ve ever tracked, undervalues what is inherited.
That said, the question for me is “does this team represent an improvement” and I think we have to see.
I like the cap management so far, Emberson looks like he can contribute and I really like the forwards.
If winning the Stanley coincides with burning down the mission that includes the team’s youth? I mean, I don’t think it’s wise but this team needs to win a Stanley Cup so if someone wants Matt Savoie at the deadline I don’t think they should hesitate to make a deal that helps.
Does Jackson undervalue what he’s inherited?
He’s brought in all sorts of help behind the scenes, analytics and development.
They’ve resigned Draisaitl to the largest contract ever.
They brought back a whole bunch of veterans no one thought they could afford, and new ones no one thought was possible to help the core win.
They didn’t play ball with Broberg who by all accounts wanted out for years.
They didn’t overpay players that didn’t deserve to break the teams cap.
They lost a young fringe fella on waivers.
All they did was sign a bunch of value deals and not overpay anyone.
After years and years of watching Oilers fill holes with youngings that aren’t ready and expansion level players we’re watching a Organization push for a Stanley.
Unless there’s a GM banging on the door with a prime top 4 RHD with affordable term Savoie isn’t going anywhere, even then I’m not sure management ships out the best prospect in the system who’s better then any of the prospects the Holland group brought in.
I’ve said this before but 10 years ago we would have blocked shots in the nude (to borrow a phrase) to see the Oilers in the position they’re in now, and now that we’re there, it appears many are going to fret about fringe players.
The words written about Brown in the last week could fill a book and he’s now off the roster, and last I checked, Holloway and Broberg also have to have a desire to sign (for a reasonable rate) in Edmonton for Edmonton to sign them.
Yes, the Oilers lost some young talent. They also added young talent and recouped picks. Before we put the nail in the coffin of the guys we’ve added and elevate those we’ve lost to Hall of Fame status, let’s maybe watch them play a game or two?
For me Bro is 95% on Holland, 5% on JJ, 0% on Bowman. Bro was unhappy for a long time, and they as usual couldn’t make a call on him and screwed the whole thing up and lost him. I’m not sure it was possible to sign him after using him in playoffs. At least they got picks, usually they let the guy walk or trade them for peanuts
Holloway, I’m not sure. He described his own wrist as ‘mangled’, that may have played into why they were slow with him. I think they knew both were getting sheets soon after playoffs, at least. It’s a small closed community, even if they don’t tell us the truth about things
Or 20. ROUGH START ALERT!!!!
The loss of Holloway is tough because he wanted to be here and they should have found a way to make it work
The loss of Broberg is very much expected as he didn’t want to be here and there’s absolutely no way we were going to pay even half of what he got. So only thing I would say it was unfortunate that they didn’t flip him sooner.
I think you over exaggerate. For me it’s all about making the money work and allowing for the obvious flexibility of this roster. Essentially, they can go into the season with a 23-man roster including Kane and accrue cap space and they can also put Kane on LTIR, free up more cap space and still accrue. It’s been an amazing off season with ups & downs. But with those downs they’ve responded with a resounding positive response. Which is a credit to this management team.
How is 90s Fan over exaggerating?
Cap management and flexibility is more important. I guess it depends on your priorities.
Will Lavoie be on waivers today (or soon). Some thing that Vegas was not planning on getting two successful claims.
To clarify some misinformation, the Oilers do NOT have a ROFR, the claim order is the same. If he is waved and the Oilers are the only claim (likely) they will be able to send him to Bako.
Vegas did lose Aston-Reese to waiver so this probably does not happen.