The Edmonton Oilers finally found the formula last night in Vancouver, scoring at will and looking more like the team we’ve come to know since Connor McDavid and Cam Talbot arrived on the scene. Get a lead, flounder a little, pour it on some more, lose focus and collect two points. Lots of encouraging stories from last night’s game for the road crew. What the world needs now is one of those patented winning streaks Edmonton has enjoyed since Kris Knoblauch arrived as coach. Perhaps it began last night.
The Athletic article is about Stan Bowman and Maxim Berezkin. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 2-2-0, 4 points in 4 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 7-7-1, 14 points in 15 games
There are several opportunities ahead for this team, and the two road trips might land successfully. I have Edmonton going 2-3-0 on the road over the rest of this month, but the team is 5-2-0 away from Rogers Place so far this season. As always, this squad is strong enough to run the table and make naysayers look silly in record time. It’s their gift. Trust me, I know.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner wasn’t busy, had some good moments and a couple of moments where his helpers turned into double agents. He seemed to be upset at the end of the game, despite the win, I don’t think it means anything but have seen comments online about it being a selfish play in a win. The Skinner hate hasn’t reached Nurse levels yet, but there’s still time. I remain a supporter of this player.
Mattias Ekholm is top-20 in scoring by defensemen this season, the man is rolling. He is one of the key players on this team and has delivered some of the best and most consistent defensive play in team history. Seriously. An absolute gem.
Evan Bouchard is taking on water online, as fans turn on him in droves. This isn’t new, puck movers have had a hard time in Edmonton going back to Paul Coffey and more recently Tom Poti, Justin Schultz and even Jeff Petry. Fortunately, unlike the time of Poti, we have wonderful metrics that tell the real story. Bouchard, defensively, is playing 34 percent of his five-on-five time versus elites and outscoring 5-3 in just shy of 100 minutes. His Dangerous Fenwick is 55 percent, a strong number. His relative number is a minus, but only because Brett Kulak is eating everyone’s lunch and making the rest of the group look indept. You can look at the numbers here.
Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak finally have goal share and expected goal share aligned at five-on-five (basically 66 percent for both). They are at 56 minutes now as pairing, I think we’ll see them more often as the season rolls along. The question might become this: Does the coaching staff trust these two folks enough to check down to a third pairing target for Ty Emberson? Makes you think. Emberson is coming along now, he’s a fine young player. Puck IQ has his DFF percentage against mid-level oppo at 67 percent and yet he is 3-6 goals. It’ll take a while for that to iron out but he’s a player, I believe.
Connor McDavid found his Ironman suit last night and flattened the left coast. His slow start to the season ignited some truly amazing verbal surrounding this player, and it’s early in his career to be receiving slings and arrows from his own fan base. However, like Nurse, Skinner and Bouchard, there seems to be a portion of Oilers fandom that feels perfection is just another ounce of sweat away, and these silly hockey players simply won’t commit. Thank God 99 percent of the hockey world recognizes true greatness in real time. He’s the fantastic impossible.
Leon Draisaitl drove the team solo for many days this fall and did it with righteous authority. What an exceptional player, underrated (like Evgeni Malkin and Phil Esposito before him) because of an even brighter star in orange, white and blue. Enjoy him, people. The big man roams the earth and chops down what is in the way. He’s a modern Paul Bunyan.
Connor Brown found the net twice after looking a little lost for a time, Mattias Janmark played so well he made it to the third line, and flourished there. Only one line was outside the scoring, that was the Jeff Skinner group with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman. It appears Skinner’s role on this year’s team is ‘first man off’ the skill lines. Usually that means an uneven season, and that player scoring the Cup-winning goal in an ultimate redemption.
Don’t worry about McDavid. Seriously. Of all the things happening with this team, the captain should be the least of your worries. Credit to players and coaching staff, they are finding their way now. An 0-3-0 start has given way to a 7-4-1 run, and maybe we see that win total stretched to 10 before another loss.
For me, I don’t think speed or rugged play has been the issue. I do think this group took extra time to join the battle, and there were many new pieces that needed to find their way. Truth is the roster is still coming into view, but I count five blue (Ekholm-Bouchard, Nurse-Kulak and Emberson) this team should be able to go to war with in the spring. I’m also fine with the goaltending. I don’t think anyone should expect Dom Hasek, and perfection was beyond even his grasp. Stuart Skinner backstopped this team to G7 of the SCF and earned your respect in the Dallas series. The fact you don’t give him that respect is reflection of you, not Stuart Skinner.
New for The Athletic: Why a Stan Bowman strength may benefit Edmonton Oilers in a big way
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5909569/2024/11/10/oilers-stan-bowman-europe/
how has Savioe been so far this year?
Savoie has been good – mostly played right wing but a few games at center when the injuries and call-ups had then depleted. He’s getting PP1 (PP has not been good on the year but he did get a PPG tonight – a beauty one timer) and PK2 time.
He isn’t someone like Holloway that you notice shift after shift because of a motor but he makes skilled plays with the puck every game, can play in tight spaces and does have an edge.
He’s taken some good contact (not all legal) and gets up and keeps going – so far.
thanks for the update
Missed the Abbotsford go-ahead goal but not the beautiful tying goal moments latter.
Attard with the zone entry, dishes to the left flank for Savoie who goes cross-ice and Caggiula hammers home another one-timer goal past Silovs.
Nice to hear Attard is starting to have an impact on both ends of the ice. You can never have too many RHD, tho they are sure testing that theory in Bako right now haha.
Griffith take a pass down low from Dineen on the PP, comes up high, across the blue, goes cross-seam (high to low) and Savoie one’s times a rocket to tie the game up.
Only the Condors’ 3rd PP goal of the year (and the 2nd game they’ve got a PPG in).
Condors has Grubbe take (and win) the offensive zone PP faceoff and he got off right away from Savoie – something we see on the PK but not usually with the PP.
The Savoie PPG:
https://x.com/Condors/status/1855786841360003182
Summarizing!
Nicholl did a thing whereby he rung up a goal and three helpers in a wild 8-7 win. Also finished +5.
Clattenburg tallied for the third time this season.
Day got shelled again tonight, allowing seven goals on 27 SOG.
O’Reilly asked for soup but none was to be had. Nicholl ate most of it.
Prospecting takes a break until Wodin’s Day.
After a huge hit from Wanner earlier, Ronnie Attard delivered a thundering check just now. Condors are mean!
Attard steps up and just crushes Nils Aman as he tires to enter the zone.
Shoulder to shoulder.
Niemo would be jealous of that hit (it was that good).
McD
Drai
RNH
—Moar 3Cs like this
— Moar wingers better :funny how that works
— It’s the golden ticket IMO.
We’ll see how they start next game.
Nuge moved up back to 1LW.
He played 6:49 with Henrique and 5:36 with McDavid at 5 on 5.
Savoie getting PK2 time.
Wanner just killed a man on the end boards – well, not quite, but a great clean hit.
His first shift after getting ejected for his “continuing altercation” fight last night.
Cap’n Clattenburg opens the scoring just 35 seconds in for his 3rd tally of the year.
Extending the lead – need to find a way to make that more of the norm than the exception.
The team has had some very good starts, including some early leads, have pushed and pushed but not been able to extend the lead (or get the lead) and the other team “hangs around”.
They got some bounces last night but they worked and earned bounces and chances and beaded down.
Two very winnable games coming up against mediocre and poor teams.
Two regulation wins (plus yesterday) heading in to Toronto next weekend (and an eastern trip with more very winnable games) should be expected.
No surprise, as he didn’t play yesterday but no Jarventie again tonight (5pm):
Caggiula/Philp/Savoie
D’Amato/Grubbe/Griffith
Tracey/Berglund/Wright
Petrov/De Jong/Kannock-Leipert
Dineen/Wanner
Carrick/Attard
Brown/Kemp
Delia
I think this is the same as last night with Delia starting.
Any early impressions on Attard so far?
Not really as recent games have over-lapped with Oilers so I haven’t been able to pay full attention – more “on in the background” with the rewind button used alot.
The Oilers had a good third period. Prior to that, I saw the same issues that have plagued them all year. The only difference being that some pucks actually went in the back of the net this time.
Maybe they are slowly coming around, but the only line that looked consistently dangerous before the 3rd period was the Draisaitl line.
This team was shooting below 6% on the season prior to last night. Have a night shooting 22.5% and your fortunes will start to change. As the shooting % improves expect to see them winning more games especially 50/50 games.
I thought the Oilers thoroughly dominated the first period including giving up all but nothing defensively – they then did what they were unable to do many times this season, extend the lead.
They made a couple of mistakes that led the Canucks back in the game but then got back at it, took the game back over and extended the lead.
They also kept coming in waves in the 3rd, even after the game was over.
The ability to extend leads was heartening for me and different that most of the year.
Nicholl makes the most of his shot(s) again as he collects his 6th goal of the campaign to cut the deficit to 2-1 just 74 seconds in.
This is a classic ‘draft and follow’ spiking as early as possible. Music!!
Stephane Goulet 2.0?
Haha. The nature of draft and follow is most will not turn out.
https://x.com/OHLHockey/status/1855695174678286682
So of course after I mention his paucity of shots, he already has 3 after 20 minutes.
He adds two assists to that goal.
Becoming a main offensive go to guy – wow!
On the other hand, the production has dried up quite a bit for O’Reily.
Up to 1-3-4 for the game now. Wowza!
Dante Fabbro claimed by the Columbus Blue Jackets
————-
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Columbus claims Fabbro
Insurance for the inevitable Werenski injury.
Werenski is a LHD. Fabbro is a RHD.
Right – Didn’t CBJ have a glut of RHD before. I’m a bit surprised to see Fabbro get claimed by them.
They have 8D on the roster.
I am not up to speed with the ins and outs of their roster but I wonder if their thought process is that, if they retain, the could flip him for a decent asset?
having threats to score on all 4 lines will pay dividends . Canucks look tired you spend all your energy covering connor then your up against Leon. Icing and the fourth line scores! i like it
re: Skinner & “selfishness”, i recall a game last year with a similar reaction, just before Christmas at MSG when Rangers scored at literally 19:59 of the third to cut the deficit to 4-3. At the time I wondered if Stu has a mindset of “2 or fewer” as an objective, or maybe “quality start” or who knows,
i personally prefer a goalie who doesn’t like to be scored on. I draw the line at showing up teammates but being upset about a GA is a natural reaction.
offensive players celebrate goals they score late in decided games, is that selfish as well because the team woulda won anyway?
Very good points. I like goalies with a super competitive mindset combined with the memory of a goldfish.
But are they pissy with their teammates if they failed to score at the last minute?
Agreed and I’d extend that to every player
He should be pissed he’s batting 884 where as the league average is 900. I’m not sure what the starting goalie average is but I would say it’s over 905. If you take away the shutout win his average would dip into the 870. Skinner can go on runs where in a string of games he’ll bat 920-925 he’s going to need that run starting now as I don’t think Bowman will be as patient as Holland. Bowman always had Crawford and slew of really good backups or 1-A-B.
Love it Bruce. Occasional public displays of emotion are part of being an athlete… believe it or not they aren’t all robots, maybe 97 is some kind of cyborg capable of travelling at speeds not attainable by mere humans. If Skinner raged like this all the time it would either not be a talking point or it would be a distraction. Skinner is otherwise very calm.
One can recognize McDavid’s greatness and also opine that he’s had a slow start to the season which is in the heels of not looking like himself for stretches last year as well.
Can both not be true.
Can one not mention that McDavid had underperformed expectations in the first 14 as part of the overall conversation on the team?
Anyone can see with their eyeballs McDavid doesn’t have the jump at the moment as say mid-season Connor. By observing this does not make you a bandwagon fan. Last year he was nursing injuries for the first 1/3 of a year this year looks the same.
Mcdavid was flying last night, before his ankle injury he was leading the team in scoring. His numbers would look a whole hell of a lot better if Hyman hasn’t fallen off a cliff while whichever left wing he’s with is just as invisible.
He had 29pts in 20 games nursing his injury last season, then finished it off with 103 in 56.
Anyone with eyes can see that any other player ever would die for such success.
Connor is tied with 22 other players for 49th in scoring.
You said at no point last season was McDavid playing as a generational player, you’re wrong.
Live with it.
For the second time – I did NOT say that – not even a little bit.
STOP saying I said things that I did not.
I certainly said that, for me, he had more periods below his top game than he had the prior years.
I never said he wasn’t a generational player nor that he didn’t look like one at any time last year.
Stop it!
I think he set multiple playoff scoring records, right? And had 100 assists in the regular season? I could be wrong.
He did have 100 assist – that was awesome. So did Kucherov.
McDavid was an elite player last season, as he always is. He was also not the best forward in the league last year, in my opinion. I think he was playing hurt all season.
McDavid has his slowest start to a season since his rookie year this year.
In my opinion, he underperformed expectations through 14 games. It’s wild that is arguable.
Yes he is off to a slow start. No argument there. I just find the references to last year funny. He was dominant last season and almost single-handedly won the cup for the Oilers.
He was dominant, as he is one of the all time best players in his prime.
At the same time, for me, he wasn’t “as dominant” or as “consistently dominant” as the prior few seasons – I think injury was a part of it but it is what it is (at least to me).
He wasn’t the best player in the league last year, not the best forward – at least in my opinion. Wasn’t the highest scoring, that’s a fact.
I guess my point is: who cares?
McDavid is the best player in the world because he is consistently elite. Is he necessarily the best player every year? No.
He has been cold to start the year after losing in game 7 and short offseason. Until he posts a 70 point season I won’t be too worried.
I care and my expectations for him are to be the best player in the world every year during his prime.
Bruce made a fun point last night that this was reminiscent of the team in the 80s who would be in a close game and then, bamn, they’d score 4 goals in the 3rd and blow the team out.
If I’m not mistaken, that is also a hallmark sign of Knoblauck teams in general, even before the 16 and 8 last season – Knobber teams go on winning streaks!
I’d be surprised if the Oilers claimed Fabrro today and I wouldn’t be surprised if he cleared – not even positive Utah grabs him at $2.5MM.
Just not sure that he’s the guy the Oilers want to use their bullet on at $2.5MM. They could claim him and start operating in LTIR. They wouldn’t have to move too much to get compliant when Kane is ready but, if they did that, that’s their bullet as they would be money in and money out for additional trades.
I think the Oilers would be more apt to try and swing a deal with salary retained if he clears than a straight claim.
I’d rather have a team like San Jose or Anaheim claim him and flip him to us at 50% retained for a pick
SJ has used up all their retention spots for this season.
Yes, that was my suggestion for what may make sense for the Oilers.
I’d much rather Luke Schen from Nashville. I doubt the preds would trade him but I feel he’d be a good partner for Nurse. He’d certainly bring some much needed toughness.
Luke Schenn has not played 2nd pairing minutes in years. He has averaged around 15 minutes a game for several seasons. He would be another third pair option.
I was wrong, he didn’t clear.
Columbus was 9th in the order.
I wonder what other teams (if any) also put in a claim…..
So true.
Was a great night to be a fan of Janmark and McDavid, both fellas were involved in a goal against while making up for such evil with providing 3 goals for each.
Last season McDavid had his best defensive season while having his 3rd best offensive season in his generational career. I would recommend spending as little time as possible picking apart McDavid and just enjoy the generational ride, it’s a thrill!
The Canucks were listless last night and the Oilers took full advantage…and that is a good sign.
Nurse and Emberson each had strong games, again.
I don’t pay attention to, or worry about, the small percentage of fans who want to hate on the McDavids and Bouchards of the world. No one will ever please everyone.
That’s how I saw it and true about the players. High skill offensive players usually come with some instability it seems. But you can’t replace having that advantage easily- game breakers. The great coaches and GMs find the right support needed for the elite talent
A good confidence boost. KK said he was glad for them finishing but didn’t think it was their best game. I hope to see them push through when things aren’t going their way as easily, it’s the last step for this core. If they can push when there isn’t much available and find ways to score and stay ahead, they will be the juggernaut that they can be
Their best game (with an asterisk) was the 5-1 win at Nashville. The asterisk being, that was the first game without McDavid so by definition the Oilers weren’t at their best because they were missing their best. But the 19 guys who played were all over it in all 3 zones.
True
Bruce can I make a suggestion for CoH to you here?
No ones hating on McDavid, Leon or Bouch … but this team goes as they go … when they’re off their game, the team has little chance to win.
That’s the challenge for coaches and managers. No player is at their best all of the time. The Isles and then the Oilers, the Pens, Hawks and Bolts more recently, were able to do that and that’s why they got more than one
The cap is a problem, but it is for all. Innovation, creativity, seeing things correctly, and getting ahead of the comp has always been the way
Nurse has put together a few nice games in a row. He has improved to 8-10 GF-GA.
I don’t think he has been on for a 5v5 goal against in a couple games.
He was looking a lot like old Nurse last night especially, carrying the puck with confidence, driving to the net, out skating everyone. Definitely looks like he’s returning to form.
The coaches seem to be encouraging him to play to his strengths which is perfect. Not a shut down type. I see him as more an instinctive athletic player
He was skating with puck … looked more confident. Wasn’t trying to get rid of the puck like it was a hand grenade. Hope he can keep this up.
But yet he’s getting shredded by some for the – PK goal against.
I agree, Nurse has been put in a tough position, with a rotating door of partners, and is playing generally good hockey.
Oilers 5v5 results are slowly catching up to most other metrics. Oilers over 50% goal share at 5v5.
If the PK can stabilize watch out.
Skinner’s save percentage of 883 says he hasn’t played well this season so far overall. A few good games for sure, but overall, he needs to be better.
Stu is like the opposite of Grant Fuhr imo. Fuhr would let in 3 or 4, but then absolutely shut the door allowing his team a chance to win the game. Skinner seems to play fine most of the game, but inevitably allow a soft or suspect goal to sink the team. Not sure if it is nerves or concentration, or what, but something he could work on. I’m sure he is.
Skinner is competive that last goal ticked down his save percentage. Skinner is still in the running for the Nations Cup as there’s not a long list of capable Canuck candidates. A 883 save percentage won’t have him making the team nevermind his next contract. Bowman holds no ties to Skinner and I do think he’s going to pull the pin if Skinner doesn’t get it to league average or at least close in the next few months.
Stu right now is a mid level starter which means there are some issues in his game. But I think he’s good enough to win
I don’t think there are any alternatives though out there. I could see maybe at the deadline bringing in some insurance for Pick. He can play well but there are
better back ups if Stu falters
Skinner would be a shoo-in for the Four Nations Cup if he played on Vegas…actually on any team that plays team defense consistantly well.
The Oilers rank 11th in 5v5 expected goals against per 60. Vegas ranks 26th.
Skinner ranks 68/72 goalies for lowest goals saved above expected, all situations.
It’s still early and obviously the PK is a major part of the story. That said, best PKer needs to be your goalie.
The whole team, aside from a few notable exceptions (Ekholm, Perry) seemed to start the season late. The boys seem to be rounding into form … just like last year. Still waiting for RNH to find his game though.
Prospectury!
The quartet of NAmateurs on today’s sched toil in the same league but on different sides of the border.
Day got rocked last night, stopping only half of the eight shots he saw before getting yanked less than 11 minutes in. One assumes he’ll get the net again after a short night and it being a 3-in-3 weekend, even though he has played the 3rd most minutes among OHL goalies.
Suspension and injuries have limited Clattenburg to only eight GP so far, scoring 2+3.
Meanwhile in London Town, Oiler prospects sit 3rd (Nicholl) and 4th (O’Reilly) in team scoring.
A volume shooter Nicholl is not, with only 26 SOG in 16 games, yet he has 5 goals to go with 10 helpers.
O’Reilly has almost twice as many SOG (47), but has just 4 goals along with 8 apples.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ noon
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 3:30 p.m.
Both times are Armena time.