Islanders at Oilers, G16 2024-25

I was a much younger man in 1983 and 1984, when the New York Islanders came to town for the Stanley Cup Finals. I remember both series like it was yesterday. The upstart Oilers full of youth and skill, the rugged, veteran Islanders with savvy mixed with nasty. They remain two of my favourite playoff series ever, and can be viewed credibly as two chapters of the same book. The new kids went to school in the first series, age and injury caught the fantastic New York side in the final stanza. Wonderful, anxious, physical, skilled, glorious hockey. Music!

The Athletic article today is about Brett Kulak’s fantastic start to the season, and the Oilers coaching staff’s decision on where to deploy him. Article is here.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

• At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
• On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
• November results: 1-2-0, 2 points in 3 games
• Oilers in 2024-25: 6-7-1, 13 points in 14 games

I have the Oilers winning the two home games and then running into some troubles on the eastern Canadian trip. However, this club traditionally falters against the easybeats and then flourishes against the lauded. We’ll see. It would be fab to come out of November with a winning record.

PLAYING DEFENSE

Darryl Sutter: “The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck. You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending. I’ve coached in three decades now and this stuff where they said Marian had to play in Jacques’s system is a bunch of bull-crap. The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone think they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”

I worry a little that the Oilers will get caught up with the idea of ‘playing defense’ instead of ‘own the puck’ and Mr. Sutter’s words fit into any conversation about defense.

The top pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are a splendid example of not playing defense because the puck is heading north, under control. Bouchard has had some tough moments this season, but has established himself as an impact five-on-five player. Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Bouchard owns a 64 percent goal share and expected goal share when playing five-on-five with Connor McDavid. Bouchard’s goal share and expected goal share without Connor McDavid in those seasons are 57 percent and 58 percent, respectivelly. Mattias Ekholm’s numbers are similar. The coaching staff correctly keeps this tandem together and they are a key to Stanley Cup hopes. Don’t let the Bouchard haters get you down. He’s bona fide.

I wrote about Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak in The Athletic piece above, and in a small sample this pairing looks very good. Early days but if this works Kris Knoblauch will deserve coach of the year honors. These two men can skate, man, and that’s a big deal. Kulak is playing great hockey, and one hopes this pairing is effective together through the end of June.

Ty Emberson is emerging now, he’s a unique defenseman. He can hit like a truck, he can pass and join the play and is a pain in the ass to play against. I worry about a player at his size playing this style and staying healthy, but for me the play here is for Stan Bowman to find a veteran LH blue to partner with Emberson on a third pair.

A busy afternoon on the Lowdown, Sports 1440 beginning at noon. We’ll check the waiver wire at noon, Rachel Doerrie from ESPN and Betalytics will join us to talk Nurse-Kulak and Oilers expectations, and Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will have the latest from the rink as the Oilers prepare for the game tonight against the Islanders. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.