Oilers at Avalanche, G24 2024-25

The Edmonton Oilers are a 4-3 team in a 3-2 league. This year’s team has some real holes and it’s fair to wonder if general manager Stan Bowman can fill enough of them between now and the deadline. The team’s dilemma can be summed up in one player: Ty Emberson. He’s clearly a good young defenseman but that’s not the same as saying he’ll be a trustworthy player in the Stanley Cup finals. Edmonton has those questions marbled through the roster. On the other hand, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all contributed handsomely to a win in Salt Lake City last night. Tonight, the club will have a more difficult test, this time in Denver.

The Athletic article today is about the original sin of the Connor McDavid era, and what followed. Article is here.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

• On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
• On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
• On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
• At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
• On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
• November results: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
• Oilers in 2024-25: 12-9-2, 26 points in 23 games

The Oilers are right around my predicted point total for the month, with an inviting schedule in December. The team’s 26 points in 23 games is a 93-point pace and we’re finally in the window of a playoff spot. Of course, more is expected.

THE NUMBERS

The first thing we have to talk about is the Ekholm-Bouchard pairing. The duo are now 19-18 goals at five-on-five, but running 60 percent in expected goals. The problem? November results (8-12 goals in the last 10 games) have skewed the view for the team’s most trusted defensive tandem. Puck IQ has Ekhom running almost 40 percent of overall time versus elites (7:21 a night) with Bouchard (7:16) in the range. Brett Kulak (6:01) and Darnell Nurse (5:54) round out a clear top four, and all of these men have a DFF percentage (smart Corsi, like expected goals) well over 50 percent. It’s cherry when it’s humming, but the top pair hit a rut and the steering’s a little off now. By the way, Troy Stecher is also playing larger than expected minutes and is just shy of 50 percent. Emberson, at 42 percent DFF percentage versus elites, is the only worry. As always, sample size reminder.

The forwards looked rusty early, and Utah has some fine players (the Bjugstad line and Sergachev pairing were effective versus McDavid) but the club takes way too many penalties to survive in this league. Need to iron that out.

I was happy for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, his goal was pure Nuge. Such a smart and industrious player, and he had the boots to keep that breakaway and hold it until a perfectly placed shot ended the game in Edmonton’s favor. Music! Nuge is my favourite player-type, smart two-way guy with enough ammo to land among the top six scorers on the team most seasons. If Dave Keon had a son who played in the NHL, he’d look a lot like Nuge.

The five-on-five HDSC’s last night were filled with role players. Adam Henrique (two), Vasily Podkolzin (also two, plus a goal, Bowman will want to invite him over for dinner because he’s making the GM look smart) plus one each from Connor Brown, Brett Kulak, and then McDavid and RNH. This team needs secondary scoring, perhaps last night was a sign it’s getting closer.

Not much to say about tonight, check the Avs injured list for improved health and after that it’ll be all about the goaltending for both teams.