I spent some time yesterday looking through old Oilers projected lineups (nerd!) and arrived at this one after a time. Peter Chiarelli spent plenty of treasure looking for ‘tough guys who can play with McDavid’ and never quite hit the nail on the head.
What he did accomplish is acquiring ‘tough guys who could no longer play with McDavid because they were in their erosion years’ and we see this above.
So, when Ken Holland arrived (signaled above by the presence of Joakim Nygard) the money was spent and the engine was in pieces on the garage floor. He did attempt add a big skill winger at his first trade deadline (Andreas Athanasiou) but the trade didn’t work and the Oilers were back to being a team with zero big men with skill (aside from Leon) in their prime.
So, the Oilers visited cities and towns with Zack Kassian and Alex Chiasson on skill lines and opponents were pleased. This is the period where the team also used very young wingers (Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi) who had the issues of youth. Not an optimal situation for the team, old tough guys and youngsters skating with the Glimmer Twins.
Now, when Holland found some walking around money, he added skilled men like Zach Hyman to the group. Music!
In January 2022, Holland signed suddenly free-agent Evander Kane, who scored at a 32-goal pace after arriving midway through the season. He played one half a season the following year, again on a 30-goal pace, and popped 24 in 2023-24. The problem for Edmonton is Kane faded as a five-on-five outscorer as injuries hit.
In his three Oilers seasons, his goal percentage at five-on-five went 64, 45 and 49. It is not clear he can play successfully on a skill line, which is a damn shame. If he can, that’s a big addition to the team. As it stands, there’s no guarantee Kane will play in the early games of the postseason.
Stan Bowman has worked around the edges, bringing in Max Jones and Trent Frederic. Both players are physical, no one on the roster can bring what Evander Kane delivers.
However, in the case of Frederic, he’s a big man who can agitate and hit hard. He has scored 18 goals and 40 assists in a season. He might score more often with (say) Draisaitl at five-on-five. He is 27. He has some time before the cliff. I hope the club signs Frederic before July 1. He can help and he has productive seasons ahead. Signing a deal for three or four seasons is the play here.
A busy show, because there’s lots happening. Noon today, Sports 1440. We will chat with Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and Host of Puck Social about the Oilers playoff roster and about Alex Ovechkin’s record breaking goal. Jason Gregor will pop in to discuss Calvin Pickard versus Stuart Skinner, Ovie and the Vlad Guerrero contract. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ list of scratches in the playoffs may surprise
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6259160/2025/04/07/edmonton-oilers-2025-playoffs-roster/
The more I look at it those lines actually look pretty good. All wingers can score. Allot more toughness with Kane and Freddy. Whole bottom 6 can penalty kill. Skinner has been playing really well and man Perry has done so much better than expected this year I would hate to take him out…I might try Skinner in place of Janmark and go:
Skinner. McD. Hyman
Freddy. Drai. Arvi
Kane. Nuge. Brown
Pods. Henry. Kap/perry
Hard to be that optimistic about the playoffs with the current injury scene.
Does anyone actually think McD, Ek, Drai, Frederic or Kane will be close to 100% to start the playoffs?
Coach confirmed they will play short tonight.
Also said, like the others, Frederick should be good to go before the playoffs.
Does anyone believe that line anymore? I’m convinced Ekholm has a long term injury that will require the off-season (or more) to heal, but KK keeps saying he’ll be good before the playoffs start.
You’ve got to trust them, until they give you reason not to. I haven’t had any reason to distrust the Oilers injury reports up until now, in fact they all seem fairly accurate to the original timelines. You may very well be right, but what evidence do you have to suggest Ekholm may be injured into next season right now?
Frederic, Drai, and Ekholm all came back too early or played hurt and reinjured themselves. I’ve never see such incompetence from a hockey team.
So Frederic did get injured last game. I guess I didn’t jinx myself.
I like the player fine enough for a third liner but spending assets for a guy who was injured at the deadline with an uncertain return date is just so bizarre.
I think they really valued the player and because he has had a drop in production this season his deadline value had dropped. Players like him are hen’s teeth and get over paid based on production and are over priced in trades bcs rarity
Jeannot went to the Bolts for Foote, a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th (outrageous), then to the Kings for 2nd and 4th. Stan got Frederic and Jones for LaChance and Wanner (not high end prospects) a 2nd and 4th. Frederic has been quite a bit more productive especially in recent seasons
It would be a bugger if he can’t play, but I think that they knew the risk and would have done it either way, thinking beyond. It’s not easy to get that type of player most of the time, huge and tough, some hands, can skate, in prime, and can play up and down the line up. The risk is in re-signing him, and if they do I think they will trade Kane for the cap
Also, Frederick is out tonight and I think the Oilers will have to play short as they don’t have the cap space to call anyone up (and can’t put anyone on LTIR now – well, they could put Ekholm or McDavid on LTIR but they are both scheduled to return this week and they don’t delay that).
Per Tony B:
Rodrigue with the start tonight.
AA is one of my least favourite trades.
He just didn’t fit any sensible role in top 6 and not defensively adept enough for top 9 (like not 3C material)
His offence almost all is derived from rush scoring with mainly him posessing puck.
It just failed to add any dynamic of worth to me.
Mcdavid needs scorer. 1 of 2 types.
1. Mucker who goes to hard areas with stick on ice ready to shoot or whack no hesitation
2. +accurate sniper with quick release whose skilled at finding soft ice short to mid range.
If these guys can forecheck to reteieve puck and competently cycle to help odds of reseting attack for another mcdavid attempt -> all the better.
He just didn’t bring anything that sensibly meshed. Hated it given fact Holland surely should have been extremely familiar with player and you’d hoped had watched mcdavid enough to go beyond “well he sure is fast i bet another fast guy would be a lot of fast!”
—
As an aside, i still think kuzmenko is a good bet. Been hoping he might appear here since watching all his goals 1st year with Nucks trying to pick apart his goal totals because of ridiculous shooting percentage.
but honestly I couldn’t. Like was just super impressed how sneaky good he was at magically being open in high danger areas and his quick release and aim is just nuts good. That is without a doubt in my mind a top shelf sniper.
He has his warts but i’m still pretty certain you put that guy with mcdavid you have a cost reasonable guy who excels on a heavy offensive starting line that uses that time to full advantage.
Can’t find another potentially available RW goal scorer last couple years that seems even close to as likely solid a match honestly.
Why do I do this?
Oilers now have 6 games remaining in their(my) quest to see them get 20 points from their last 16 games.
So far they have errr,,,ummmm,,, 13 points.
Seriously hope that the stars are intentionally dogging it before the playoffs, since McDavid of all people knows how exhausted he was by game 6-7 of the finals.
Regular season? Who needs it?
Per Gregor:
Great! So, instead of elevating Pickard to starter we get to have shaky Stuart back in goal for the playoffs, just in time to have him manage to lose games by the end of the 1st period like he did last year.
We’ll need them both; no need to be Neg
LA:
Game 2 -3-1 after 1 – lost in OT
Van:
Game 3 – 3-1 after 1 – lost 4-3
Those were the only games the Oil were down by more than 1 in the first through the entire playoff..
But I’m sure you knew you just made that up.
Man it is getting so tiresome hearing from Oilers fans who would rather see the team fail than have to attribute any of its success to their whipping boy.
I’m going out on a limb and saying that getting their experienced goaltender back healthy well before the playoffs is a good thing – the 3G is getting his first career start tonight so, yes, having Skinner as an option is a good thing.
Wondering if Stuart Skinner will be available for the playoffs???
If he is, I hope he absolutely kills it.
I wonder if the Oilers take a look at signing Vladar? I think he’s ready for a breakout season. What would his cost and term be if Bowman goes this route?
A breakout season based on a current and career save% below .900 ? Or maybe you mean signing him to Bakersfield?
To do what Evander can do, he has to be a top athlete with huge attitude. Its why Edmonton brought him in, and knew well there was potential risk. He then took a decent contract, good sign.
I think Kane can be back to a good athlete and hockey player, Im not certain he can get back to the dominating presence.
Teams rolling int Edmonton knew Zack Kassian would be on the ice that evening. Kassian did his job. But like all players, life, injuries, often family and kids start to tame them. They want to play, not fight, perhaps tired of injury.
Which Evander will show up? A guy who has had enough injury, enough recovery that he dials the physicality back? Could be. Hope not. He does have a bit of an ego, and I think that ego will not allow him to back down, not allow him to be out hit, and fuel him to put up some points. And if he does have the will, can he catch up the speed, the shot, the pace?
If the good Kane shows up, it will have a major, major affect on the post season. This will be fantastic.
Kane is still in need of a payday in summer ‘26.
He’s going to need to bring it these playoffs and next season to hit another big contract.
The oft injured Kane will be 35 when his current contract expires.
A ‘big contract” is not likely in the cards.
Yeah, it will be interesting to see what happens on his next contract.
Guy still scores goals which might still get him paid more than he seems worth.
I hated the 4th year on that deal right when it was signed. I still have clear memory of some of the most brutal defensive zone lapses in the vomference finals they lost to vegas. Like multiple just poor effort blown coverage and after his man got by him just standing there flat footed watching…like it just seemed bizarrely terrible.
Right there is point started dreading remainder of his contract.
I think there surely are teams he could be value add. But i think in order to do so he would need to be a bigger factor in power play scoring than he’ll likely ever be on oilers.
Last year -> He may have scored at solid clip but they gave up more when he was on the ice. If you actually watch him in defensive zone…i just don’t see anyway this magically reverses in fortune as age and wear have even bigger impact.
FINGERS CROSSED!
Kane is going to beat all your favorites like a rented mule
Kane knows If has a big playoff that he’ll be tradeable which leads into another contract. Unlike H.H I dont think Kane’s rolling in the dough this is his last chance to make in the big scope of life unreal money.
Kane hasn’t got it in his DNA to dog it in the playoffs.
How did Clattenburg look in his debut for Bakersfield last night besides he’s physicality was his speed noticeable?
I listened to the special Cult of Hockey episode devoted to Bruce McCurdy last night. CoH’s David Staples and Kurt Leavins were joined by Bruce’s son Kevin.
I’m a fairly recent Oilers fan. What I learned early was that the CoH, and Bruce especially, give Oilers fan something unique to NHL fans. Listening to the episode last night gave some of the backstory to what CoH offers, and how Bruce shaped that offer. If you don’t already consider yourself lucky to be a fan of this club, give a listen. Not only do we get to enjoy two of the greatest hockey players, we also have some great hockey analysts. I include you, LT, in this gift to Oilers fandom. I have a couple of other clubs I watch & root for. Even in the “home of hockey,” Montreal, I don’t see such a dedicated and professional collection of writers and analysts. We are lucky, as fans. The Oilers are lucky to have you and CoH.
https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/cult-of-hockey-podcast/id1168773970?i=1000702392086
The only two blogs/podcasts I read/listen to religiously are Lowetide and the CoH podcast. Both imo give a balanced opinion (many of the others are to damn negative for a team that was 2 goals from winning the cup).
Bruce’s insights were unique, passionate and will be sorely missed. Although I never met him, I miss him. Surprised myself how choaked up I got when hearing the awful news.
The CoH won’t be the same.
I agree, we are very lucky as fans to have such a dedicated group of writers that provide a huge amount of content daily.
Thank you Lowetide for everything you do for us fans!
One of the birthplaces of Hockey Analytics is the Oilogosphere, of which this blog is a founding member. Bruce was an important part of that and made his contributions to it for certain. Lovers of wisdom will understand the meaning of logos here and by my experience this was evident in Bruce and his work.
I wonder if Jeff Skinner can play with Connor McDavid………?
Imo, he can. But will he…?
That really is the question…..
At least we absolutely know he can play and contribute on this team.
Options, options, options.
We do but the coach might think there are 12 better options than him despite his team leading goal share since Jan 1 (and 15 goals on the season).
LOL I’m still wondering if Jeff Skinner can play.
Anyone on the roster can.
The Oilers have done this at the trade deadline recently – getting guys with a bit of term or UFAs they think they can sign. Signing Frederic is looking like a good idea. Extending Walman by 3 years this summer would be a great piece of business.
Smart signings,
On Rodrigue start watch.
Far from a lock tonight – Ducks can score.
In all honesty I think they should have started Rodrigue against LA, a game they probably weren’t expecting to win anyway without Connor or Leon and saved Pickard for the Ducks.
Hey LT – regarding the lineup options you reviewed in The Athletic article, I wonder if they try Freddie at centre. I’d consider keeping Skinner in the line-up and having Henri sit for a few.
It may come to that for sure.
I’m not so sure they can afford it sit Henrique after all he’s a center. We’ll see if Connor plays against the Ducks, and we know Leon won’t be playing. They will certainly try Frederic at center, but even with Connor returning they still only have Nuge, Henrique, possibly Frederic, Janmark & Kapanen.
Vintage Kane… godspeed Evander!
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/video/what-is-anybody-here-going-to-do-oilers-kane-unintimidated-by-flames-during-scrum/
2nd up on that clip – Hopefully Frederic’s hand is healed up after beating up Cory Perry’s helmet. Massive physical aggression but Frederic, you need a little strategy or you are just going to break your knuckle!