The Edmonton Oilers signed Kasperi Kapanen this morning, the deal is one-year, $1.3 million. The team also signed RH center Noah Philp, $775,000 on a one-year deal. Both players have a real chance to play for the Edmonton Oilers in the coming year.
For Kapanen, a waiver claim, the 1.17 points-60 and 35 percent goal share (both at five-on-five) were pedestrian and poor, respectively. His 51 percent expected goal share is encouraging, and of course he was better in the playoffs (with a poor expected goal share, completing the regression from the regular season totals).
I’d put Kapanen as the No. 5 right-wing on the roster. Zach Hyman leads the way, Viktor Arvidsson is here until he isn’t, David Tomasek should impact the team here, Matthew Savoie should play the entire year in a middle-six role, and then Kapanen. That’s a roster spot for sure, with Max Jones, Quinn Hutson and Roby Jarventie all in the mix.
We don’t know about Connor Brown or Corey Perry, that’ll impact the depth chart if either signs. Once Arvidsson is dealt, Kapanen lands in the top 12 forwards, and you (or the Oilers) may like him more than Savoie.
Noah Philp had a 56 percent goal share and a 56 percent expected goal share five-on-five in 15 games with the Oilers last season. The downbeat? A .90 points-60 and his boots looked a little slow when he was going hell bent for leather on the backcheck. I like him for the Oilers, he looked plenty fast enough in preseason, maybe he had a hitch in his giddyup.
I count Philp as the No. 5 center on the team. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Adam Henrique (or the Nuge swapping with Henrique) is the heart of the order. I think Mattias Janmark enters summer as the fourth center, followed by Philp and then James Hamblin. Lots of wingers who could play center, including Trent Frederic and David Tomasek, but I like Philp for his PK, faceoff, outscoring skills. He’s a good player. Honest.
I think it’s good the Oilers are close to the cap. Why? Mistakes are made on July 1 that have far reaching impact. On July 2, 2016, after the Hall-Larsson trade and Milan Lucic signing, I wrote “Peter Chiarelli is overpaying for these things, and there is reason to be concerned. Just because a team has all manner of assets does not mean the general manager can play fast and loose with the real gold. No matter how you feel about this week—and the additions are very nice—the years of Taylor Hall just sent away are very concerning. We need to acknowledge that, and by that I mean understanding in our own minds the price paid this summer to tunnel through to a respectable defense.”
The Oilers need to make room for value deals. I think we can suggest today that Matt Savoie, David Tomasek, Vasily Podkolzin are such contracts, and you might be able to add Kapanen, Philp, Atro Leppanen and Roby Jarventie to that list (depending on performance) next season. Stan Bowman needs to sign value contracts and avoid a Luciceberg at all costs.
Today on the Lowdown, we review the draft and look forward to free agency. Jason Gregor will join us and we’ll chat about the new picks and contracts, noon to 2 on Sports 1440.
New for The Athletic: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, summer 2025 edition
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6459651/2025/06/30/oilers-prospects-ranking-summer-2025/
Pretty impressive year 1 for this management team. The popular term now is dog, and they are certainly looking for them. The future looks much brighter today, and I hope the development team can make an impact. You can’t teach will and heart, so makes sense to use it as the prerequisite and develop from there.
Thanks for the update LT.
As this offseason progresses, I become more pessimistic that the McD Oilers will ever win a Cup.
Bouch at 10.5 x 4? Meh, I don’t mind the cap but it should have been 8. Bowman needs to watch what Zito is doing, there will be no cap value if they have to pay him and Connor 20M extra in 4 years
He’s made almost a third of what Ekblad has and juice master made the league straight from his draft
I suppose Zito has some Cups as leverage
I literally don’t understand how Vegas is able to get away with this. If Pietrangelo is on IR, they still have to ice a cap compliant team come playoffs. And they are trying to get Andersson? The only way this makes sense is if Hertl is going the other way
So Marner is a Vegan for the next 8 years ($12M AAV). I wonder what they gave up in that trade?
Marchand re-signing with Florida… Next year feels like a throwaway year – that team is unbeatable.
Agreed. The only way they lose is the way lost three years ago: injuries.
Well they have been remarkably healthy for their last two playoffs.
6 years for a 37 year old. I was hoping they would do something stupid like this
When they said they want to bring tampering charges to make an example they clearly meant to say tampering charges against a Canadian team
It amazes me how many players want to play in Vegas with how Vegas treats its players.
So we overpayed and got term on the bottom 6 forward and we got half the term our franchise d. That makes sense
I have a post on here that is “awaiting approval”. I’ve never seen that before. Is that something that comes up when certain keywords are used, am I flagged personally, is it random? Strange
Prediction:
McD also signs for 3-4 years.
If the Oilers don’t win the next 3-4 years Bouchard and McD are gone.
Yeah, looks like its McMercenary.
That’s a very expensive contract for Bouch without the term. Florida signs everyone and shaves some cap, we pay that little bit extra
And they wonder why they can’t win.
Eh. Apples to oranges. Bouchard had RFA years plus he has been nickel and dimed by Holland’s bridge deals and over ripening strategy.
To be fair, Bouchard is a much better player than Bennett and Ekblad.
I have a bad feeling McDavid’s next contract is going to be 3-4 years.
What kind of money is Marchand looking for?
4x $10.5 for Bouchard. Thoughts?
A win for both sides IMO.
Pure value for that deal but, before the Dobson signing, that AAV may have been available for 8 years.
Bouchard is certainly with more than $1MM more than Dobson.
Should have got more term at that price. Very good deal for Bouchard.
Bowman can’t seem to win on value or term.
Isn’t there an RFA year in there? If this is our cup window, the purpose of the 4 year would have been to reduce AAV.
Won’t gripe about it because he earned it, but it is certainly a contrast to the more team friendly deal Ekblad took so that his team could add another piece
Two RFA years.
Ekblad deal isn’t really comparable as he’s already finished and 8 year big money deal, is already at the end of his prime and starting to regrsss and this contract is for almost fully regression years.
Not quite: shorter term = higher AAV, longer term = lower AAV.
Not in an inflationary cap environment.
That logic applies to pure UFA years. But in the case of 2 RFA years, the AAV should be lower for a 4 year deal compared to an 8.
Love it. Unless Puckpedia is not up to date, there aren’t any NMC or NTCs in the deal despite being eligible in years 3 and 4. To me, that’s a bigger deal than the term. Cap hit is about where I thought it would be, though it’s always going to be too high
I wouldn’t be keen on signing Boeser. A slow shooter with limited two-way ability isn’t what I believe will push this team over the hump. Similar to Skinner last year, I think this would be indicative of a management group that’s either failing to identify the problem or not targeting the right solutions.
The Wild traded for Tarasenko. Would they do that if they had Boeser locked up?
6.1 million AAV for Ekblad. Nurse’s contract is an abomination.
Look forward to tuning in for Gregor telling us that Florida don’t get discount contracts
Ekblad up at Puckpedia 6.1 x8
6.25 x8
Big win for steroids on that one
18 players 4.9M in cap
That is a pretty reasonable deal for the Panthers. They basically keep the band together for another five seasons (Bob is the only notable UFA in the next five years afaik).
Pretty impressive. I could definitely see them winning another cup or two over that period.
Zito is definitely in the top tier of GMs. Still blows my mind that the Oilers picked famous hockey man over Zito.
Given he’s in prime and took 1.4M less sure is
No Tax in Florida really helps.
It does some, but it’s not a huge difference. He wanted to stay so he took a pay cut is the bottom line, don’t see that often from a 29YO assistant cpt 2 time Cup winner. Players sign in New York and California and they have high taxes
When the cap jumps again they are going to have money with their top 6 and top 4 locked in at 10M and under and Bob will be off the books
I hope Connor signs at 14.5M
Zito wasn’t in the Guide and Record book.
Good ol’ Juicebox.
Boeser is a 50 point player idk why he’s so highly touted
It’s the goals.
Money dependent; with the passing ability the Oiler posses, a scorer like Boesar could be huge.
is he better than Jeff Skinner?
(not suggesting the Oilers sign Skinner)
Hoping for Ehlers, scared about a Boeser contract. Mangiapane could be a good pickup for much less.
Wonder how much we offer Jake Allen?
Either of Ehlers or Boeser would be equally good at probably the same cap hit, whatever that might be. I’ve always hated Mangiapane so he’s most likely a great fit with Frederic on the third line and I’m hoping Tomasek is a revelation 3c for Edmonton as well Philp at 4c both RHC’s. If they do decide on Allen, I can’t see them paying him more than Skinner’s $2.6M.
I like Ehlers, but he’ll be 30, is broken and small
Cam Fowler is in St. Louis. St. Louis desparately needs a middle 6 centre. Henrique would get to play between Neighbours and Bolduc at worst on the 3rd line, or Holloway and Kyrou.
Armstrong may have asked Cam to give Adam a call to help recruit him, and get him to waive his no move.
The consistent trend of small (300-500k) overpayments on the roster is a genuine issue. Arguments like “but it’s buriable” or “but it’s just a couple hundred thousand” don’t discount that it’s become a trend and one that has cost the team. 300-500k extra on all of Janmark, Kapanen and (likely) Frederic adds up to something around 1 to 1.5mil in cap space. In the grand scheme of things that may not seem like that much but that makes a difference in who they could target at the deadline. Further, that likely would’ve meant the difference between being able to easily match the Holloway offer sheet and not last year.
I understand that they’re paying the guys that really went to war in the postseason, but this just isn’t wise. Let him go to market and try to get this from another contender after just being on waivers. The player himself said last season that [para.] “this may be my last chance in the league”; he’s exactly the kind of player you ought to squeeze. On the bright side, at least there isn’t term to this one.
And that is just the aggregate overpay on depth players, to say nothing of all overpays on the roster, like Nurse who makes $2m too much.
And all the dead cap space from previous buy-outs.
Add it up and there’s a first line winger right there.
There must be a super deal out there for the Oilers. Somebody not on the radar, fallen out of favor, or needs moved in a hurry. Somebody that comes with low expectations but huge potential. Can they find him?
I expect the Oilers will sign Brock Boeser. I expect LT is hearing similar based on the title of today’s post.
Reading LT’s titles as tea leaves, omens of truths yet unspoken. I will sit and wonder…
2 Mutts Hockey Podcast
@2MuttsHockeyPod
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41s
The #LetsGoOilers are working on finalizing two trades.
Adam Henrique & Victor Arvidsson by the end of today.
They plan on making announcement on the Evan Bouchard contract extension as well today.
Busy 24 hours for the @EdmontonOilers
organization.
They want as much cap space for tomorrow as they possible can get according to sources close to the situation.
We believe others in the city had this information as well.
They’re clearing cap space for Marner.
I think the Leafs and Vegas are near a trade that would send Marner to Vegas according to Friedman.
Stauffer was hinting at Boeser being the one the Oilers have their eyes on.
We’ll see. Marner still has an NMC until July 1 that he doesn’t seem to want to waive… after that he’s free to sign with whoever he wants to.
Smart move for both parties to trade him to his preferred destination: he can get the eighth year in an extension, and they get some kind of asset in return so avoid losing him to free agency for nothing.
I support dumping Henrique. However, unless the plan is Nuge at 3C, this team has a serious void of depth centres.
I thought Frederic is supposed to play C
I am sure that’s the plan.
Count me skeptical. Freddy has not consistently played centre at the NHL level despite playing on teams with poor centre depth.
Word is they want to give him a long look. I also have high hopes for Tomasek.
I’m told Brock Boeser will be signed July 1. I expect LT has heard the same.
He’s slow and doesn’t produce 5v5 or play much defence. Boy do I hope you are incorrect…
Give me Ehlers instead please
Vancouver fans call him ‘Brocktober’. We need guys who can produce in June.
Just took a peek. Boeser has 23 points in 29 playoff games.
Curious where you heard this, or did you just mean reading the tea leaves from Stauffer comments, etc.?
I dunno. If they really are able to clear out that much cap space, maybe they should be looking at Marchand. Two-time Stanley Cup champ that looks like he can still elevate his game in crunch time. Probably less $$ and certainly less term. He probably still owes Bennett a flyby chicken wing to the face…
As I said below and OP didn’t believe me. They are absolutely going whale hunting.
Prediction it’s Boeser.
Boeser isn’t really much different than Perry at NHL Edge. Except he plays a lot more TOI so probably has more gas in the tank. He’s going to cost a lot more and doesn’t bring the grit
If it happens they must want a full time top 6 guy that is a better scorer. Those cheap bottom 6 guys are going to have to knock it out of the park
Speculation is not fact.
Just as the salmon flock to capistrano the oilers whaling boats are getting ready for the yearly whale hunt.
Maccelli to the Leafs for peanuts. Stan falling asleep next to the phone just like Tambellini?
Oh come on. The guy was healthy scratched by Utah for almost a third of the season last year and comes with a $3.4 million cap hit. Toronto was the only one out of 31 teams to even offer peanuts for the cap dump.
Exactly. There are things to express concern over, but this is not the one to break out the fire and pitch forks over.
I don’t think our cap situation is made for expensive reclamation projects.
lol, still negative on everything Oilers related.
Kap is Knobber’s Will Acton or Toby Peterson.
He has some great moments in the playoffs but there is a reason he has bounced around. No consistency in his play (expect for being a consistent liability in his own zone).
Obviously the contract is not a huge issue. However, I was hoping the GM would save the coach from himself.
No, that’s Connor Brown, who management has hopefully sent down the road.
Neither Acton or Peterson have ever been in the same realm as Kapanen as an NHL player.
Kapanen at 1.3 has a very distinct possibility of outperforming the guy they just gave an 8 year deal next year. And at least he doesn’t routinely miss open nets.
The hyperbole on Frederic is getting silly.
The contract isn’t great. I wouldn’t have signed him for that long, personally.
But he is going to outperform Kapanen with pretty high certainty. Kap might not even be a regular in the line up.
You take your common sense and get the heck out of here. I’m starting to get edgy, I’ll give myself a time-out.
I vigorously disagree – a couple of good weeks in the playoffs where he wasn’t a defensive liability (until he became one) doesn’t alter his career history as a replacement level player at this point.
Kapanen worked hard to recreate himself with Edmonton. They like his speed and versatility. He’s become a Swiss army knife.
Oops – this was supposed to be a comment on OilerParty’s post below.
I know this is a common sentiment heard each and every year for a lot of different players, but is it real? He can be sent to the minors where maybe he is claimed or if not the amount of his salary that counts is $75K. He’s played here, done some ok things (and maybe other not so ok things), but he can play at the NHL level. So in this instance, isn’t there very little downside to the contract and if he is flushed exactly who is a going to do a so much better job that this is felt to be a point of contention? There is plenty of angst about what the roster is going to look like. So many more moving parts on the potential lineup at this point in the offseason.
Oiler’s management continues to not understand how replacement level players work. Why are we paying 1.3 million for Kapanen? He is replacement level that extra 300-500 thousand dollars MATTERS. Just let guys like this go and sign someone else!
Years ago on this site I said virtually the same thing. Spend on the rare players first fill in on replacements later. I then questioned the competency of oilers management (tabalinni, chiarelli, holland) was told these guys are experts and that we fans don’t really know much. Sigh
I disagree. This is a bet on someone you know rather than an unknown. You can send him down at worst and only be on the hook for less than 200k. There’s still potential for this player and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kap score Browns 13 goals. It’s a better bet than paying Brown double.
but we know his defence is poor, and his underlying numbers historically are bad
Kapanen is an appealing player, but he’s on thin NHL ice so to speak because he just isn’t a reliable defensive player. Lots of really poor reads Bruce Curlock pointed out during the playoffs
Maybe they can coach him up, but the mistakes (not just his) are what cost them, again. They don’t need to be a boring team, but they need to not give away such easy goals. I caught an older MacT monday and he described them as the most impatient offensive team in the league, trying to do things that just aren’t there
That leads to a lot of those breakdowns, and I think also their troubles 5v5 and PP when they pop up in tough games, at least against Florida. I hope Knob is on it
They made so few mistakes against Vegas and Dallas and then made 5+ glaring errors per game against Florida. I still don’t get it.
It’s about pressure and coverage. If teams give them enough air they roll them, when they don’t everyone gets impatient and start playing more individual, which makes things even worse
Florida >>> Dallas or Vegas.
Oilers face more pressure against Florida and it led to more breakdowns. Oilers were also trailing all series which led to more forced plays.
Some years ago they had a guy who had good speed, charged up and down the ice, made the occasional hit, and talked a good game. Guy had the flow going on, the numbers said he was below replacement but actually stuck it out way longer than he should have. The name Jones comes to mind, Kapenan looks just like him in the playoffs. Does management look at the numbers?
NHL Edge recorded Noah Philp’s hitting 22.43 mph (36.1 kph). That’s somewhat above average speed (58% percentile). Could be on the back check his issue isn’t speed, but anticipation. With only 15 games played in the NHL, he might not be used the NHL pace of play and to how much quicker things happen in the NHL.
A brief moment of hesitation in a read in the offensive zone can put him in chase mode where its hard to catch up. Its possible, if and when he gets more NHL experience, his reaction time will improve so opponents won’t get the jump on him nearly as much and he can get above them, or at least apply more back pressure.
I disagree. I think the whale hunt is on going. I think Arvidsson gets dumped and I dont see them sitting on cap space. And if I was GM as much as i didnt like out winger depth last year and didnt want to bring everyone back. But the one worse thing than bringing everyone back would be not bringing anyone back. Way too many question marks.
The GM has stated his intent to have Tomasek, Philp and Savoie on the team (plus Kap).
Adding a whale to the 4 big salaries, after Bouch signs, is something I don’t foresee.
[chef’s kiss]
Don’t really see them being a big player in the external UFA market. Just don’t see them doing the surgery needed to make room for a Boeser or Ehlers.
Get Bouch done (today hopefully) and move the Arvidsson contract.
Can’t give Brown near $2MM for term.
Can’t give Perry a market deal representative of his season. I wish Perry would take a low base with real performance bonuses for production (not games played) targets but he’s likely to dig in for guaranteed money.
There is also Klingberg but he’s likely too much AAV and term and the Oilers have 7D in-house and both Stech and Emberson would get claimed on waivers at their cap hits.
Regula is a wild card to play games in 2025 if he’s truly healthy and can get some runway in Bako.
Savoie is a lock for 2RW/3RW and Bowman protects Philp and Tomasek on the team.
I see a middle six winger with a chance for top 6, a depth dman and a 3G.
They will be just fine and will add in season.
That’s okay for the upcoming season. IIRC, the team has significant cap space after next season and bigger swings can be taken in free agency (hopefully no Lucic-esque contracts, though).
Most of the team comes off the books such as: Henrique, Kulak, Walman, Ekholm, Stecher, Skinner, Kap, Jones, Pickard and a few others that escape me.
Some of the d-men will get a raise, some they may replace, some may come cheaper.
Bowman will be able to put a real stamp on the roster.
Hoping for a walman 5 year extension. Ekholm two year extension. Would like to keep Kulak but may not be possible
Not sure about the 2-year Ekholm extension – I was wary of the last year of his contract on the day of trade and, well, it was the year prior where things went off the rails. Lets see if he’s healthy to start the year and how much of his prime game recovers.
A few of these players still have some value, the first four for sure and likely marginal for the remaining five. Some may be resigned but I’m curious what the plan will be for others. Will they let them walk or try to recoup assets? Depending how the season goes, expecting decent and in a playoff position come the deadline, the time would be now to recoup. Letting them go in free agency, along with the assets used to acquire them, seems counterproductive.
Kap at $1.3MM is a $300K overpay – his playoff game (which fell off after a few weeks) is not repeatable in the regular season given his career history
Philp on a two way is tidy business. I presume he got a big AHL salary to take less than his QO.
Bouchard next.
Im hoping the minor overpay (which can still be mostly buried in the minors unless the 1.15M number has changed) is balanced by the 1 yr show me term that can hopefully keep him motivated.
Personally I think the extra 300k is worth his pass on the Walman goal haha, but your mileage may vary.
The buried limit in the minors is raised to 1.225 million for 25/26 (and projected to keep rising by $50,000 for the 3 subsequent seasons), so if Kapanen needed to be waived and managed to clear, they would carry the extra $75,000 against the cap and not $150,000.
It’s possible Kapanen’s agent drew a line in the sand at $1.3 million saying his client would test free agency rather than take less (and was possibly aware that offers in that range were available). The Oilers might have felt better to sign at that level rather than see him go elsewhere. With the higher cap, and with his contributions to the Oilers in the playoffs, he may have upped his perceived value to multiple teams compared to when he was waived.
Thanks for clarifying that. I thought the buriable number increased with the cap but wasn’t sure.
It increases with league min increasing.
The max buryable amount is league min plus $375K
We need speed across the forward line-up, that much was evident from the Stanley Cup finals. I love a 4th line of Janmark – Philp – Kapanen, especially as Janmark and Kapanen can help out on the 3rd line in an injury pinch. Leave Jones as the 13th forward.
If Kap can bring his playoff game for most of the regular season.
His career history shows that’s not likely.
It’s not a big deal, it’s only $300K but we know every dollar can matter in-season and a few of these (Janmark) add up.
Kap was close to be washed out of the league but his speed is still appealing to the G.M’s of the league. I think Kap will find his niche and be a anywhere from a 12 to 20 goal scorer the next 3 years.