This is the 2014-15 Bakersfield Condors goaltending depth chart and performance numbers. Laurent Brossoit would emerge as an NHL goaltender in the years that followed, he played in 140 games in the big leagues, helped Vegas to the 2023 Stanley Cup.
The Oilers have done well (compared to team history after Grant Fuhr and Andy Moog arrived in the NHL) in developing goaltenders over the past decade. Brossoit is one, as is Stuart Skinner, Edmonton’s No. 1 goalie the past several years. I am hopeful Samuel Jonsson is the next one who makes the show, but did have hopes for Olivier Rodrigue once upon a time.
In the AHL, Rodrigue finished top-10 in league save percentage for the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. On December 3, 2024, not so long ago, Rodrigue ranked No. 8 in the AHL among goalies with a .925 save percentage.
After that, it all fell apart. The team wasn’t fab, injuries and recall took away from the quality of the roster and he delivered an .886 save percentage over the rest of the season.
I blame roster turnover for much of the problems. In 2023-24, the Condors used 11 defensemen, led by Philip Broberg, Ben Gleason and Cam Dineen. In 2024-25, Broberg was in St. Louis, Gleason was traded to the Philadelphia Flyers and Dineen, while performing well, did not have enough support. Bakersfield, once a pure Leftorium, found itself with an outrageous number of RH defensemen.
I don’t know what the future holds for Olivier Rodrigue. Every organization in Christendom has a couple of goalies they’ve invested in, and it’s such a weird position (about 125 goalies a season could cover NHL-AHL rosters before injury) overall it’s a massive fall when your NHL team walks you.
I think Rodrigue could play in the NHL, I mean beyond this year’s cup of coffee. I hope he gets a contract somewhere and proves himself. I’m fairly certain that at least some of the blame for last year’s performance lands at the feet of a subpar defensive group. Sail on, Olivier Rodrigue. I’ll be cheering for you.
Lots of talk in Oil Country the last few days about offer sheeting Dostal.
He filed for arbitration so is no longer eligible for an offer sheet.
Verbeek has 28.98M in cap space. Not sure that would work…….
Do the Oilers go with a “3 center set-up” on each of the bottom 2 lines:
Mangiapane/McDavid/Hyman
Podz/Drai/Savoie
Henrique/Nuge/Frederic
Tamasek/Lazar/Philp
Don’t see that 4th line – Janmark and Kap will play roles unless they can move Janny’s deal.
The more I look at things, if Lazar is healthy and finds his game from 2 years ago and Philp solidifies his ability to play 8-12 minutes plus some depth PK, it would be great to move that Janny contract.
At the same time, there isn’t much “call-up depth” – Jarventie will need a few months of playing games.
I’m curious of people’s expectations of Mangiapane. I’ve seen many, like you, putting him as 1LW. He played the entire playoffs as 4LW averaging 11 minutes a night and zero PK time with the Capitals.
Tied 5th in 5v5 points 57.14 GF% they lost to the Canes 4-1. 8 Caps were at 50 GF% or above. He did well per usage
The key to your post is “he did well per usage.” His usage was not 1LW, nor 2LW. It was 4LW.
Kane is one of few Oilers who could do battle, but his stick was up, he takes a couple penalties, he is benched. Coach cannot have that type of contribution.
Sam Bennett runs the goalie and takes cheap penalties, a few in a row.
He gets a pat on the back, great job, and coach supports him, that’s what we’re looking for.
should a coach release the dogs or keep them muzzled?
What ever it takes to do what Bennett does
Release the Hounds of Hell
Olivier’s decrease in SV% coincided with his father and coach -Sylvian- leaving the Condors, and as mentioned in the comments by those who follow the Condors closely, a team that was decimated by injuries and departures.
Sylvain Rodrigue was a goalie coach with the Oilers from 2015-2022. His son was drafted in 2018. When Sylvain started with Bakersfield, Sylvain transferred from Edmonton to the AHL affiliate.
Last season Sylvain left to work for the Charlotte Checkers, the AHL affiliate of the Florida Panthers. Finally, after his departure, Oliver got his cup of coffee (I thought he was fine in those two games, and that we could have been in a worse position during the Skinner injury).
I read the events as a father doing everything possible for his son, but the situation is also unusual. Like Lowetide, I will be cheering for the player.
It’s looking like 25/26 will be more of a re-tool year but give Bowman some cap space so he can make mid season adds. I think these sort of moves are actually the better option in the modern NHL. Teams are more likely to retain and it seems like better players get moved in season now rather than reaching free agency. Walman is a great example. While people don’t love the Frederic contract, it always felt like the Oilers were angling to resign with the acquisition cost they paid and verbal from the media – I said this right after the deal. The media was seriously pumping Frederic’s tires even before the trade. Looking at the other contracts handed out in FA I don’t mind the bet on Frederic. 8 years is way too long for a mid 6er but he still has a lot to prove in this league.
The goalie piece is tough. I just don’t see that goalie out there at the moment. But say Nashville bombs again this year they might be looking to rebuild and who knows – maybe Saros shakes loose. Or Sorokin. I’m not sure how the Oilers could handle the cap hit but it’s more possible mid season than it is right now. I also think it’s very possible they sign the goalie from Sherwood park whose name I dare not utter.
and Skinner needs a new contract 2 lol everyone forgets he needs $$
Well he does need to earn one first
I’ve been reading here and away different things about the forwards that are gone. 5v5 is the key to things, so here are the playoff scoring numbers and on ice ones. Out of 14 forwards 5 are gone
Kane 33YO 21GP
G 6 A 5
GF% 55.17
xGF% 53.94
HDCF% 54.62
HDGF% 66.67
Brown 31YO 20GP
G 3 A 4
GF% 46.67
xGF% 41.51
HDGF% 50.00
SCF%40.83
SF% 46.54
HDCF% 40.00
Perry 40YO 22GP
G 3 A 1
GF% 46.15
xGF% 58.77
HDGF% 50.00
SCF%59.35
SF%59.82
HDCF% 62.37
Skinner 33YO 5GP
G 1 A 1
GF% 42.86
xGF% 42.49
HDGF% 40.00
SCF% 39.62
SF% 44.83
HDCF% 45.16
Arvi 32YO 15GP
G 2 A 5
GF% 61.54
xGF% 39.86
HDGF% 60.00
SCF% 44.35
SF% 54.47
HDCF% 45.10
The coaches pretty clearly had asks that some players weren’t hitting. I think likely battles and exits were main things, and maybe missing assignments, the usual suspects
Healthy Kane will be missed, he contributed positively in all aspects, although some folks saw his board play as weak. Pretty sure it was mostly about salary, but who knows? Maybe the car stunt wasn’t appreciated
Brown’s results weren’t as good as what it looked like at times. Held water in high danger goals but under in GF%, his shot metrics were not good. Production was decent, but a non physical player whose main area which was PK struggled. I can see why they let him walk at any type of a raise. For an extra 600K I think Mangi is a better player, harder to play against, with far more upside, and younger
Gotta love Mr. Perry, but he got outscored and wasn’t that productive 5v5, even with good shot metrics. I wouldn’t have put Holland money towards such a one dimensional player either, he has trouble with back pressure and that’s a sore point for the team too often. Overall I think the new players can contribute more and provide more energy and pace. The Oilers aren’t built to be able to carry guys that need to be played in a very specific way. The only reason he played up so much was his hands in close I think
The coach did not like what Skinner was doing, and while he did look good at times his numbers are all under water. Not enough production to carry all the other things, no point him coming back if they won’t play him anyway. Again I think they will get better overall play out of a guy like Savoie
Arvi was productive enough and won the goal battle, but his positive shot share didn’t pan out in expected or chances numbers. Winning the goal share is the goal, but they sat him a bunch and it seems didn’t like what he was doing. He also had a reg season 44.8 GF%. I wouldn’t have been against keeping him, but cap and fit seem to have won the day. They may miss him, but maybe not
No one can say how these changes will play out, but I like that they have a different plan and given how that final went sitting pat would have been a mistake. I also like that they want more aggressive and assertive players that go hard and play 200 ft, keep adding them. Nuge gets the only ‘nice’ guy spot for me. I think if they play well enough Stan waits to the deadline to add
Thanks
Really great analytics based look at these players. Really cements the idea that all of the players they let walk as UFAs are on the down slope of their careers.
Nice work SS!
I wonder who they would have retained if cap were not an issue?
Bowman has been presented a tough puzzle and I believe he’s done well. I hope that Mangiapane and Lazar can help on the PK.
But at the same time, when I look at the numbers, this forward group is going to have difficulty scoring, which is likely to put more pressure on the goalies who are not going to get the goal support they’ve had in the past few seasons.
This is a lot of roster turnover. I don’t blame Brown for taking the money. 12 mil is a lot more than the 2×2 I would have offered. A little surprised that Perry didn’t want to stick around as he’s made his money and seemed happy and was given some very nice pp1 time. Arvidsson was a necessary dump
would have been nice to keep Kane.
Zero surprise for me that Perry dug in for more comp – he did last year as well (his contract, both base and bonus structure was bloated relative to the prior season and his age) – his verbal re: winning is primary has been hot air for a few years now.
That’s not a true statement. 2 years with the Oilers and now on to the Kings. Both teams were and are SC contenders.
When it comes to goalies, my primary method of evaluation would be psychological.
If you’re not borderline crazy arrogant when it comes to your abilities, I don’t want you.
Way too many super talented goalies who fall apart from lack of belief and the inability to let go of a bad goal/game.
If you talk to experienced players who played at a high level, this is often the first thing they say about goalies they played with.
Ah, the Mike Smith school of goaltending.
Now there was a guy who could shake off the bad goals. I wish I had that man’s self-assurance.
Hopefully you don’t wander as much as he did!
Fun fact:
Mike Smith leads all EDM goalies in season SV%.
This Matt Berlin erasure will not stand!
Sorry, I should have mentioned, minimum 3 minutes played.
I know a bunch of dudes like that in my beer league. I’d tell them you think they have the traits of an NHL caliber ‘tender, but they already think they are NHL caliber so it wouldn’t really be news to them.
this year is going to be about retooling and finding a path forward without losing Mcdavids commitment.
next year let’s say Mcdavid signs for 16 mil just to make the maths easy leaves us with 30 mil. If we give Walman 7×7 and 6 mil for Ekholm still leaves us with 17 mil. I like Kulak but don’t know if we make the commitment he can get on the open market. Should have enough cap space for couple big additions
Wahlman 7×7? Am I missing something on player evaluation? This is the same guy with 90 career points and a career plus 3? Don’t got me wrong, like the player and he’s solid. But that price?
Career plus 3 is actually very impressive given the teams he has played on prior to the deadline trade this year.
Take a look at the UFA deals this off-season (Ceci, Proporov, Gavrikov, etc.) and you’ll see that $7MM is not far off for Walman…..
Gonna want a pay day. Rapidly rising cap. Had an excellent season. Very short supply of top 4 D. I would be very happy if it was less money
And he can play both LD and RD
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6048288/2025/03/09/nhl-player-cards-pacific/?source=user_shared_articleNHL Player Cards: Pacific Division
+11 OV rating. 8.4 mil est market value. Would be fantastic if he signed for under 7 just to quit moving around
Honestly, I would be tempted to trade Ekholm at the deadline (he would fetch a big return) and extend Kulak and Walman.
Ek has been a great Oiler but he is 35. I think I would rather try to re-coup assets.
I do not want to trade Ekholm unless he is truly done (i.e. the offseason does nothing to help him rehab). Ryan Whitney territory.
I doubt that’s the case. Core/groin injuries are slow to heal, but they do heal. This isn’t like knee cartilage, where once it’s gone, it’s gone.
Fair – at the same time, player around 35 often don’t come back near the same ceiling after medium/major injuries – we’ll have to wait and see where he gets to this fall.
I haven’t heard anything about him requiring, or going for, surgery this off-season which surprises me but is probably a good thing (although doesn’t mean its not going to happen).
Agree. There are obviously cap constraints this year but I believe the main reason they didn’t make a larger slash, via trade/buyout, was this season is being viewed as a slight retool with all the salary coming off the books next year.
Assuming McDavid signs for $16M the 2026-2027 roster / cap looks like this:
RNH McD Hyman
Mangi Drai Savoie
Fred X X
Jan X X
X Bouch
Nurse X
X Emb
X
X
Campbell buyout $2.6M
$74M, projected cap $104M, so $30M remaining as you mentioned. Lots of holes to fill however.
Possible a starting goalie and backup chew up $8-10M on top of the buyout. That will partly drive what they’re able to pay Walman, would hope it’s not more than $5M on a long term deal and Ek at $3-4M for 3LD in the twilight of his career.
That theoretically leaves $14M for 2RD, 3C, 3RW, 4C, 4RW, and extras. It’s tight, very tight.
My opinion is that every prospect that contributes significantly in the AHL for an extended period of time should be given an opportunity (it does not have to be an extended one) in the NHL.
For Rodrigue or Kemp to be dumped without playing a single NHL game is pretty abominable.
Rodrigue (2) and Kemp (1) have both played in an NHL game.
You are better than that.
Kemp played forward in that game. Rodigue got mop up time.
Kemp earned an opportunity in the NHL despite the organization never even providing him with a path. I mean I’m not sure he ever got a line rush in any NHL camp session with a locked roster d-man let alone an exhibition game.
He didn’t even get a chance last camp to compete with Josh Brown and Brown’s mid-season call-up over Kemp last year was egregious.
I hope he gets a chance in Pit.
Except every org has prospects like this.
The smart ones trade them earlier. They should start doing that.
I generally agree with this sentiment, but I think NHL teams have many eyes on every player in the system. They aren’t burying guys just because. That would be silly. I would have liked them to give a player like Kemp more of an opportunity in the NHL, but they did see him play for several years in the AHL and didn’t deem him worthy of a look at the NHL level. It’s possible he catches on with his new team and proves the Oilers wrong, but I doubt it.
You make a very important point. Fans who say “we need to see a player in the NHL before deciding on them” mean “we the fans needs to see a player in the NHL before we the fans decide”. NHL teams pay many people to have eyes on their prospects to form opinions on them.
When it comes to Rodrique, we don’t know what we don’t know. He had a good AHL career and seemed to have some promise, bu we really don’t know all the details on why the Oilers decided o move on, and probably never will. Let us hope some of the other goalie prospects are ready to make a name for themselves and percolate well!
Thinking ahead to next year’s draft, one can’t help but be intrigued by Brantford’s new player Alexander Karmanov. A 7 ft 273 lb tree of a defencman – Chara light maybe? I will keep watching for news and opinions about him all year I imagine. I hope he has enough wheels to be effective as a prospect. Perhaps Tarkus has some insights?
I’ve never seen him play–I am much more a reporter than a scout.
From what I’ve been able to gather though, he has already played in North America and has committed to Penn State for the 2027-8 season.
Aside from his physical stature, he’s already made history as the first player from Moldova ever selected in the CHL Import Draft. (Moldova is part of the old USSR, sandwiched betwixt Ukraine and Romania.)
Definitely bears watching–especially for how mobile a 7′ player can be–even if he doesn’t report to Brantford.
“Bears watching”…. I see what you didn’t there, Tarkus.
I read about this player about 2 years ago, so he’s been on my radar. I kind of think of him as the Olivier Rioux (7’8” basketball player) of hockey. Not a very mobile human, but can be effective as a shot disruptor, as seen in yesterday’s Canada – USA U19 FIBA Quarter Final game. The kid will never play in the NBA, but has some useful attributes, but mostly he is just huge.
With Karmanov, while he is a surprisingly good skater, he is definitely a project, but more likely in the end is just a curiousity rather than a legitimate prospect. Utah likes giant players, so perhaps they are an NHL team that takes a chance on him in the future….
Here is an entertaining video on him, for those interested.
https://youtu.be/77CRmEjcrxw?si=_e2RtLgEBPU8hC-z
Great video! I enjoyed it very much! It would be very iteresting if we got a hold of him as a prospect – I would definitely be intrigued how he would look with a puck mover like Bouchard some day…
I would definitely entertain the possibiliy of using a second or third round pick on him next year as a possible pick… if his progress warrants.
Think about how long it took 6’7″ Vincent Desharnais to make the NHL.
Even in the NHL, it took 6’9″ Chara several years to establish himself at a top-level player. The same was true for 6’6″ Tage Thompson.
I’m really not sure why they didn’t qualify Rodrigue and don’t know the plan for the 2nd goalie to partner with Tomkins.
There have been some rumblings about adding another back-up for Skinner and Pickard in the AHL but that doesn’t seem reasonable to me (tough to find a better value contract back-up than what Pickard provided for $1MM this past season and, with that, tough to see him slide through waivers).
Day will be in the ECHL. Maybe its Ungar with Tomkins.
Maybe Samuel J. will indeed to in the AHL/ECHL – I figured the next step for him is SHL but he was in town for development camp this past week – a long trip for a youngster if the plan isn’t to end up over here this season.
Al may be right on this one.
I think it might have to do with size. He’s listed at 6’1 and 158lbs. Binnington, despite having anger management issues, is also not a big guy, but he’s 6’2 and 172. Pick is 6’1 but he’s 206lbs, that’s almost 50lbs difference, a much bigger body
It’s never a rule, but teams have been preferring taller heavier goalies for a while. Probably because they fill the net up. Rod being so skinny doesn’t as much and he’s at the low end for height
I think if you are different physically than the norm you have to be a seen as a top level player like Saros or Wolf. I’m not sure Rod was able to make that case for himself, so they look elsewhere. I think it was the right way to go after a few years at his age
Rodrique obviously didn’t impress his new bosses with below average play in the AHL. He’s 25 yet he looked like a scared doe in the preseason and his 2 regular season. games. He would of been given a real opportunity if he would of shown any signs of a heartbeat last year.
Rodrigue was again having a very good season early until the Condors became decimated with call-ups, injuries, trades out, personal leaves and players not-reporting – his season and numbers cratered at that point.
He’s 25 his draft pedigree says he should be playing meaningful NHL games. Either you have it or you don’t maybe his agent asked to move on which I dought so that leaves he’s not good enough. There’s no shame in that his game doesn’t translate to the NHL. There is 100’s of goalies in the same boat.
That is an entirely different opinion/position that the post of yours I responded to which stated he was dog shit in Bako this past season (essentially).
He didn’t have a good year in Bakersfield blame it on injuries blame it on new management blame it on Rio. Sugarcoat it all you want If you can’t get a qualifying offer at 25 with one of the worst goaltending organizations in the entire league then let’s say AHL is probably your ceiling.
Although retired, Tim Thomas would call b.s. on that.
I don’t see the comparison Thomas was 2 inches shorter and 45 pounds heavier. Even with Thomas carrying 45 more pounds and shorter he was more athletic than Mr. Rodrique. I can see Rodrique ending up in the Panthers organization either in the AHL or ECHL.
The Tompkins signing is very strange to me. My impression is that he is an average AHL goaltender. At 31 he has never been a #1 tender in the AHL and last season Oilers castaway Ryan Fanti (small sample) had a better save percentage.
I would bet $1,000 that Rodrigue, if he plays in the AHL next season, plays more games and has superior stats than Tompkins next year.
So these moves make zero sense to me.
Tomkins is short term depth on the farm, depending on what goalie prospects are ready for AHL/ECHL from the rest. A place holder until the others are ready or available to man those spots in the minors. Nothing more, I would think.
And Rodrique is getting a chance to move on and find another opportunity due to age, record and height/weight issues mentioned previously in this thread…