This is the December 2013 glance at Edmonton’s goaltenders. In January 2014, Craig MacTavish would do Devan Dubnyk a favour and send him on his way. Dubnyk was back in the NHL as a solid starter in time for the 2014-15 season. Here are Dubnyk’s season by season five-on-five save percentages, with NHL rank in brackets:
- 2009-10: .906 (DNQ)
- 2010-11: .921 (24)
- 2011-12: .926 (17)
- 2012-13: .923 (18)
- 2013-14: .902 (52)
- 2014-15: .936 (5)
- 2015-16: .933 (10)
- 2016-17: .931 (11)
- 2017-18: .930 (17)
- 2018-19: .918 (32)
- 2019-20: .903 (51)
- 2020-21: .904 (52)
So, to review, Devan Dubnyk was a promising young goaltender on the upswing as an NHL starter, then the “swarm” came. Once he was cast away by the Oilers (one could call it destroying the evidence of the swarm), Dubnyk went right back to being a fine starting goaltender. He faded when age caught up to him. Age and injury are the only other ways a goalie can hit a downbeat, aside from “the swarm” as seen here in 2013-14. Now, let’s run Stuart Skinner’s career the same way:
- 2021-22: .916 (DNQ)
- 2022-23: .926 (11)
- 2023-24: .913 (33)
- 2024-25: .902 (43)
So, what do we make of this? Is Skinner the 2022-23 goaltender who emerged at exactly the right time? Or is he the 2024-25 goalie who did not deliver. It isn’t age, it isn’t injury, and I haven’t seen the swarm (although the Oilers did some weird things defensively in the final).
My own feeling, and I’m not expert on goaltenders, is the workload is too much for Skinner. He would be better served by having a strong partner in goal, and player who might emerge as the starter to Skinner’s backup role.
Where does one find it? In the world of hockey goalies, you can wait for the San Jose Sharks to gift you Miikka Kiprusoff, sign an expensive free agent who is eroding, trade for someone’s second best, or roll your own.
Samuel Jonsson might be the answer, and he may arrive too late for the McDavid-Draisaitl era. I’d run Jonsson as my NHL goalie (in tandem with Skinner) as soon as he plays 20 quality games in the NHL. Colby Cosh once wrote about goalies peaking early as opposed to mid, and I’ve always felt that has some truth to it. Jonsson can stop pucks. What the hell else do you want?
It will never happen.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk goalies with Jason Gregor. He is suggesting an innovative way to develop and maintain all goalies in the system, and we’ll find out what it looks like. Also, Elks (argh), Jays (wow) and more, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440.
What role will Oilers defenceman Jake Walman play next season?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6491075/2025/07/14/oilers-jake-walman-stats-contract/
I was concerned when they started the playoffs without Ekholm. Then I was concerned when he came back into the lineup. His play was a big factor in their SCF lack of success, IMO. Walman was, on the other hand, a big factor in them getting as far as they did. I’m curious about Ekholm’s future w the club. I’m pretty confident -and excited about- Walman’s.
Knob says that Stuart will bump up to main D coach and McFarland will “run the PP”.
Who’s running the PK and are they completely rebuilding it. Last season’s PK may be the worse I’ve ever seen.
If they trot out the “it was just the execution lacking” verbal..
I see a 23 minute media avail with Knob. Will listen this afternoon on the treadmill but, for now, from Gregor:
“The most difficult part of our job is giving young players an opportunity to play, while also trying to hold them accountable and find that fine line where how many mistakes are allowed. We expect to have young forwards in our group. Howard is a very offensive player and we’d like to find him a role on the power play, probably on the second unit, and I really liked Savoie’s play on the PK in Bakersfield and he will get that chance with us,” Knoblauch on Howard and Savoie getting chances this year.
I hope coach doesn’t discount the likelihood that Savoie is just as offensive potentially as Howard and has produced against pros with little help at times.
He can be more than a third line PK guy.
agreed, likely just as if not more talented, but it’s starting to feel this coach has an impression and doesn’t change it???
OP will be on the TREADMILL everybody!!!!!!
Done now – I’m sure you were waiting to get verification.
In any event, any response to the hockey substance or was that the sole reason for logging in today?
Oilers still have not figured out why they lost to Florida both years. Until they do, adding another goaltender will not be the difference.
Perhaps more than one thing can be correct: desire, grit, and poor goaltending?
Three steps to beating the very particular Florida Panthers: 1) Take more peptides as they do: recovery is huge during the playoffs; 2) PIMs might be even after 60 but it’s really helpful if you get a series of power plays before they do, so you can sit on a lead and wear down the Panthers who also haven’t taken as many performance enhancing drugs as you have; 3) Be around 12 million over the cap than they are.
Evander Kane playing rugged and taking a penalty – this is bad, you are hurting the team, down to the 4th line for you.
Sam Bennett playing rugged and taking a penalty – this is good, exactly what we want you to do. We support you and will give you more ice time. Do it again.
The… the Conn Smythe winner??
A penalty…or 3 or 4.
Look at the special teams numbers for each team and there’s your answer.
One factor that everyone overlooks is that Dubnyk had his first baby in August 2013. I remember it well because I had my first baby in October 2013. I recall vividly sitting in the hospital with my wife as she recovered and reading the comments on this blog as Dubnyk lost his first five starts that season and allowed an obscene amount of goals. That first baby is a monumental change in a person’s life, and I completely understand and relate to what happened to DD that season.
Didn’t Skinner have his 2nd?
And a concussion?
Talbot’s game also bottomed-out after he gave birth to twins.
Postpartum life is anything and everything from rainbows to train wrecks, for either or both parents. With huge impact on professional life. I’ve yet to work with a man or couple who managed it without serious help. Or serious marital and/or consequences. Some do, no doubt. I’ve yet to meet them.
ps. It’s not just sleep, or lack thereof. Though that’s big. And it’s not something that money -even $Ms- will “fix.” Families (even professional hockey families) need patience and support. This is especially important if you’re growing a professional/team culture with long term success in mind.
Wheeler’s list of his top 100 drafted prospects just dropped.
Howard checks in at 49, Savoie 53.
Oh, and O’Reilly didn’t make the list at all.
If we had peak Dubnyk we have 2 Cups and counting. Pickard saved our regular season then was the reason for getting by L.A and Vegas. His injury probably cost us the Cup as he was clearly in the zone until fukface accidentally purposely fell on him. Bowman has made done some shrewd moves he is not telegraphing his upcoming goalie trade and upgrade.
this post gets a thumbs up for description and emotion!
I’ve seen every goaltender from Dave Dryden to Skinner. Seen Sather go through 10 goalies in the first 2 years before hitting sevens on Moog. Seen Fuhr win it and Ranford steal the show. Skinner had 3 chances with a excellent team in front of him besides the 2 Dallas series which I give him full credit for he has been shaky as fuk needing reset after reset. If this is being mean to a millionaire that plays a kid game so be it but the bottom line is he doesn’t have it in to win it all.
I know the response is that they are professionals blah, blah, blah…but NHLers are also human.
I think that both of these goaltenders down years came with newborns in their homes. This can affect an athletes rhythm, and probably even more so at the goaltender position. I expect a rebound year for Stu.
I’ll also mention that although the Oilers did not employ the swarm this year, they did feel that giving up the cross-ice seam pass this past year (and in the playoffs) was a viable defensive formation.
The expectation that professional athletes are not affected by “real life,” whether it’s births or deaths, that somehow $M render them insensitive to what really matters, is both foolish and -from a win perspective- poor strategy. When team members are going through challenging times off-ice they need to be supported, not made a problem. This is a big deal in pro hockey. It’s an even bigger deal in real life.
I get the kid thing comes up a lot when talking about Oilers goalies, but has anyone actually looked at this across the league. I’d like to see stats for all goalies that have kids (focusing on first year post birth) to see if there really is something going on there rather than relying on anecdotal “baby was born, goalie had a down year” as being a thing.
Talbot had twins and had the best year of his life. Partners sacrifice so the athlete can be ready and insulated during the year.
It isn’t nothing, but every ex NHLer says its not bad (any potential complications aside).
I get that players are humans and things can affect them. But figure it out quick. Pressure and the need to perform come with the gigantic pay cheque
The one thing I’ve read that I don’t agree with is not being able to get sleep and decline in play over time. A league minimum player is paid over 1M dollars. The partners can have enough support if they are willing to pay for it. Nothing like what regular families experience
As I recall Talbot’s game fell apart after he gave birth to twins? Am i misremembering? I don’t know how to confirm, not knowing when they had them… but thats been hard wired into my memory for a while now. Unless by best year of his life, you mean, of his personal life, which could be the case indeed.
Alex I’ll take the threat of divorce messing your head for $1000 over the joy of having a child.
Young men tend to (IMO) stay focused on the prize, the goal when they are without distraction.
The suddenly there is girls. Then cars, booze and teenage distractions. Some youngsters stay wild for a while, others settle down quickly.
Getting married, having kids, and increased responsibility away from the prize does not breed the mindset of taking chances, risk, fighting, sacrificing your body with an “I don’t give a sh*t” attitude
Oilers are a high skilled gentleman’s team. That is great but it has come up just a tiny bit short When they do bring in a wild card, they tend to tame him down.
This is some pretty wild projection!
Not to mention your argument isn’t even cohesive from one sentence to the next. So are young men more focused than the old timers, or are they led astray by booze, girls and teenage distractions? I’m guessing the wild stallion-type you’re after would be a guy like Bennett, but what is it about elbowing a goalie in the back of the head that requires being a young single chap without kids? Outside of the cheap shots, I’d argue he didn’t play particular hard or sacrifice his body all that much.
I’d argue that the Oilers played plenty hard from top to bottom in the playoffs, beat three teams who were all considered contenders – while smacking down the two teams that were favorites over them to win the cup – then ran out of gas because they lacked fresh legs and young talent. The basic biology of age is more likely what did them in in the end, as opposed to any life responsibilities that players might have.
A Raffi Torres type can single handily win you a series just as much as a McDavid This is why the small fraction of effective Bennett’s are so coveted by many G.M’s
I will preface this comment by stating I am one of those fans that would prefer to have a whole new face in goal. Nothing against Skinner, but going to battle with the same tandem expecting a different result seems like…well…insanity.
Obviously there the problem is who would be available that would be a clear upgrade, not just a different face with the same concerns? The recent PIttsburgh trade has some noting that Jarry will be available as the Penguins are clearly rebuilding. He has a reasonable contract for a few years as well. If the Oilers could fit him under the cap, I wouldn’t be totally opposed, but I think this would have to be the 1A/1B scenario, and keep Skinner. Give them games 50/50 and see what happens…if Jarry regains his form then fantastic. If Skinner accepts the challenge and elevates, even better…
LT, you seem really high on this guy and may I ask why? I mean, how much can one glean from the Alsvenskan? Its not even SHL let alone AHL, right?
I’m currently a big fan of Nathanial Day – his pro start in the ECHL was absolutely sensational.
He’s a first year pro so likely years away, but I’m not sure that Samuel J. isn’t also years away, right?
I’m sure Jonsson is years away from the NHL. I am not certain he should be. The Allsvenskan is a league that deploys younger players, and many of those players have NHL futures. If Jonsson makes it from Allsvenskan-AHL-NHL he’ll follow a normal route (although most play SweHL, too).
I’m saying his numbers in the Allsvenskan were SO good there’s a good chance he will perform well in the AHL. That depends on the quality of the team in front of him but the Condors look encouraging.
Bakerfield looks to be a tire fire again. Jonsson should be left in Sweden, in the elite league.
Veteran defenders will be Riley Stillman, Cam Dineen, Josh Brown. Atro Leppanen should help the power play. If Alec Regula passes through waivers that’s a reasonable group, but whatever Akey and Carpagna can provide.
Center should be good, with Hamblin and Philp joined by Samanski and possibly Marjala in the middle.
Wingers include Roby Jarventie and Max Jones, plus Quinn Hutson and Matvey Petrov.
I expect some PTO’s in August who sign and are recall options. Nothing high end unless Savoie (unlikely) or Howard (also unlikely) play a large portion of the season there.
Better defense than a year ago. Center not as strong as last year but they were never healthy.
Do you know if there is an avenue for him to play material games in the SHL?
Lots of adds to Condors I’m excited about – looking forward to seeing Akey, Regula and Lepanen on the back end, for example – Hutson, Samanski, Clattenburg and some others up front.
Jarventie is the NHL ready start of the group.
I disagree on Bakersfield, they might have a bumpy start, but I bet they are top 4 in the Pacific Division. Lots of talent coming in and this is the AHL.
I just don’t understand the goaltending decisions.
Rodrigue was a top 10 AHL goaltender over the past 3 seasons. Tompkins is 6 years older and has an okay track record in 55 AHL games in the past 2 seasons.
He was obviously a back-up who also played in 6 NHL games. Rodrigue has played in 107 AHL games over the past 3 seasons.
It does appear that the runway has been cleared for Jonsson. Tompkins also has recent SHL experience (65 games). He also played for Canada at the 2022 Winter Olympics. He was also a Bowman draft pick in 2012, funny how that is, eh?
Agreed, Rodrigue was tracking well until last year.
You’d like Jonsson to come in and play 40-50 games for Condors. Not sure if that’s realistic, or the plan, but if he comes in and rips it up in the A, perhaps he gets a cup of coffee later with the big club later in the year.
It happens with other teams (Dobes in MTL, for example), why can’t we have one of those?
Now I’m wondering with SBGM’s history is with rookie goaltenders.
.914 games in 50 games is a very good season but he has not been able to replicate in 59 and 51 game seasons and, of course, his playoffs have been, uneven, in each of the 3 runs.
I think Pickard can play 30-35 games, like he did this past year.
Do we need someone to play even more?
Perhaps.
A few seasons ago Campbell appeared to be the safe starter and Skinner stole his lunch money and took the job. I credit the Oilers there for letting him run with it.
It seems like Jonsson needs a favorable injury though to get that chance.
Did Skinner steal his lunch money, or did Jack eat too much and puke it all over him self…not sure the Oil had any other option than to let Skinner run with it at that point…
more like OD’d on crystal meth in the janitor’s room
I know nothing about any of these guys except McFarland was the Hitmen coach and Aubry was with Chicago (i.e Bowman relationship), per Oilers:
Coaching records at the bottom.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=71775
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=67500
And if this is the right Conor Allen, here is his resume:
https://www.usahockeyntdp.com/roster_players/73964243?subseason=930044
Never say never – injuries could change things in a hurry.
That said, I’m glad we’re down to one Skinner.
“It will never happen.”
I read this as – I double dog dare you. 😃