This is a look at Noah Philp’s early run last season with the Bakersfield Condors. A nice resume to be sure, he played in all game states and delivered. Philp is older for a prospect (27 next month) but he’s good, he is a RH center who can win faceoffs, and he can score a little too. He is the second name in the ‘training camp hopeful’ series we’ll look at this month.
He can’t skate. NHL Edge has him in the 58th percentile in straight speed. He’s not a burner, but Philp can play in the NHL.
He can’t score. His 18 even-strength goals in 55 AHL games is a solid performance.
He’s not a good outscorer. In the AHL, he outscored for both seasons and in the NHL, Philp helped deliver a 56 percent goal share (64 percent expected).
He’s small and doesn’t like contact. He is 6.03, 200 and a physical player. Wins battles. He is not a shy violet.
He’s one dimensional. He owns a range of skills that will allow him to play a responsible game at center or on the wing. He’s a plug-and-play option for the Oilers and the NHL equivalency for his time with the Condors (82 games, 14-11-25) suggests a bottom six role and that’s a useful player. He could emerge as an option at No. 4 center this fall, on merit.
There’s no room. You are correct. There is no room. If the Oilers run with 14 forwards next season we can name them now. 97, 29, 93, Zach Hyman, Trent Frederic, Andrew Mangiapane, Adam Henrique, Vasily Podkolzin, Mattias Janmark, Kasperi Kapanen, Curtis Lazar, Matt Savoie, Ike Howard, David Tomasek. If they run with 13, Janmark has been traded, they waive Kapanen, or one of the kids (or Tomasek) don’t make the team. No mention of Philp here.
Then why is he a hopeful? Philp is a RH center and he is inexpensive. The Oilers would do well to invest 40 NHL games in him, because he could be a solution. We don’t know if he can do it for an entire season, but this will be year three and he’s done everything asked of him in the AHL.
How would you get him on the roster? Trading Janmark is the most likely solution, but even then the Oilers may run with 13 forwards. I would move Philp past Kapanen on the depth chart, making him No. 13 of 15 names above (ahead of Janmark and Kapanen).
The four centers next year will be McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge and Henrique. Not all of the time, and some of those veterans could use a break from time to time. He’s faster than Henrique and he’s RH plus should win his share of strong side faceoffs.
The coach likes veterans. You are correct. However, a RH center will be on the deadline shopping list. It’s possible the coach and managers will want to see what Philp can do on a fourth line. The PK utility could be a factor.
A fun day on the Lowdown, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. We’ll have the roundtable with Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson and Josh Fenwick, discussing Oilers, Elks, Jays and more. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
I noticed yesterday’s theme was on Atro Leppanen, has anyone done a side-by-side comparison between him and Brian Rafalski? Atro broken Rafalski’s Liiga points record last year, and Rafalski was about the same age when he set it IIRC. Similar career arc… it would be nice if we got 10 good years out of Leppanen, it’s rare that someone comes out of Europe at his age but it does happen.
He’s got serious skills, watch his highlights and let me know which current NHL defenseman his play-style reminds you of: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jyzLujfadSY
Can he defend against NHL forwards? Because if he can’t, then it doesn’t matter what his highlight reels on Youtube show.
Brian Rafalski was had phenomenal defensive acumen.
If I squint a little I can see Philp playing RW on either the 3rd or 4th line, taking the strong-side draws to assist Henrique/Janmark/Frederic.
Tomasek is also supposed to be good at faceoffs, so he could be an option also as a third line RW / C.
I would expect to see Nuge possibly centering Frederic & Tomasek. But all three can play center. It’s going to be very interesting .
RIP Ozzy.
Pour one out.
My kids just know him as an aging reality show figure, but bats everyone are breathing easier, if you know what I mean.
Speaking of music…Infinity Philp Goose Down? Really?
One can drop the title and an added prompt into Suno for a better result. Now I’m thinking of “writing” songs for the entire roster.
For those who are unfamiliar with Suno:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKxNGFjyRv0
Sort of Dan Fogelberg with a chorus straight out of Jackson Brown. What a world we live in.
In limited viewings of Philp I positively noticed 1) D-zone awareness/positioning, a center that is reliable and available down low on breakouts and made some small area plays and 2) cycles didn’t seem to die on his stick, combo of puck protection, touch (again), and not throwing pucks blindly to the front of the net. I thought he looked like a smart player.
— How bout those Blue Jays
— So much hasn’t worked out for them : Varsho Santander Scherzer Gimenez Garcia…
— yet a bunch of unheralded or after thoughts having career or emerging or statement seasons : Lauer Kirk Barger Clement Springer bunch of relief guys.
— Been really fun. Sky Dome rocking
At the beginning of the 2023-24 season the Oilers had a few young players like Broberg, Holloway, and Lavoie who were all looking to establish themselves in the NHL. The Oilers went 2-9-1, fired their coach, then relied on vets to right the ship. The opportunity for these players evaporated and none of them remain with the organization.
Two years later Kris Knoblauch absolutely cannot afford to make the same mistake. Even if they’re 7-11-2 through 20 games, Howard and Savoie in particular, and Tomasek and Philp to a lesser extent, need to be trusted with a role that they’ll grow into and start to deliver over the second half of the season.
The role of the vets like Nuge and Leon is to bring those players along. They have in the past and they should to start the coming season. The big thing is the coach needs to trust the personnel and give ample ice time to all 4 lines.
Both of Savoie & Philp have paid their due in the AHL, I see nothing wrong with Howard & Tomasek seeing some time in the AHL to start the season. They’re both waiver exempt.
Good point.
Mostly untrue. Skinner and Broberg saved the season.
Broberg Holloway and Lavoie barely played during those 12 games. I think only Broberg played, and during those few minutes and games he did he played better than all the other D. (Wasn’t Holloway injured in the first couple of games, and did not return to the OIlers till after Christmas?) I don’t think Lavoie saw a game that season.
Broberg was sent down pretty early, and after Bouchard was horrid for two months, playing with Ryan Murray, and then Brent Kulak, they called Broberg up, and Broberg stabilized and fixed Bouchard, and the pair played extremely well till the arrival of Ekholm.
Savoie and Howard are not grinders they both can skate and have above average shots with hockey IQ. They will be given full opportunity even by K.K standards. If a skilled forward doesn’t show at 21 then we busted out on him. If Savoie doesn’t get 15-20 goals and Howard 18-23 goals then someone in the organization needs to take a hit and be let go. The hardest thing in hockey is to score consistently these two have it in them.
The team may not be as pressed as some may think to fit everyone in at the beginning of the year .Hyman ( broken wrist ) Nuge ( broken hand ) and Ekholm ( groin ) may not be ready to go at the beginning of the season , The team may have time to take a longer look at these young players and see where they fit or if they can take over a vets job.
Just did some digging into Hobey Baker winners and ages when they won and when they made an impact in the NHL:
Hobey Baker Award Winners and age (How many seasons after winning the HB until they made an impact in brackets)
Hobey Baker winners who turned 18 in the year they won
Macklin Celebrini (HB+1)
Hobey Baker winners who turned 19 in the year they won
Paul Kariya (HB+1)
Jack Eichel (HB+1)
Adam Fantilli (HB+2)
Hobey Baker winners who turned 20 in the year they won
Cole Caufield (HB+1)
Hobey Baker winners who turned 21 in the year they won
Kip Miller (HB+9) (injuries had a major impact on his career)
Tony HrKac (HB+2)
Johnny Gaudreau (HB+1)
Cale Makar (HB+1)
Ike Howard (HB+?)
Hobey Baker winners who turned 22 in the year they won
Neal Broten (HB+1)
Adam Gaudette (HB+7)
Brendan Morrison (HB+4)
Chris Drury (HB+1)
Hobey Baker winners who turned 23 in the year they won
Jim Vesey (HB+1)
I like Howard’s chances of having an impact this season.
Good stuff, I wanted to do this sort of exercise, but have no time to do this.
Jimmy Vesey is an interesting case. He had size speed and scoring and he was pursued hard by several teams. He has never really been more than a 3rd line winger.
His Harvard teammate Alex Kerfoot, who is 1 year younger and not anywhere near the same level of NCAA goal scorer (80 vs 36 goals), but is a consistent point-getter. In one less season (26 fewer career GP) Kerfoot has 98 more points.
Also, Kerfoot has more than doubled Vesey’s career earnings.
Not sure Vesey has speed. In 4 years of NHL tracking, Vesey has reached 22 mph barely just twice. By their standards he has below average speed.
I distinctly remember the buzz about and speed was one of his notable attributes.
Here’s quote from Havard Assistant Coach Paul Pearl from 2020:
“Jimmy and Alex in college were about as unstoppable a duo as you would get,” Pearl said. “Because they both could fly, they’re both really, really smart – (they) understood the way hockey’s supposed to be played.”
I can see Philp doing better than janmark, but I see Kapanen doing better than both. I could see Kapanen having a resurgence this season. I liked his play in the playoffs.
Kapanen is the righthanded version of Janmark.
Huh?
Kap is a defensive liability and Janmark is an offensive black hole. They are very opposite player types.
They’re both bottom six forwards that play either wing, they can also play center in a pinch, as well they can both play higher up in the lineup if required. They both kill penalties and skate well. Both struggled during the regular season. Sounds similar to me.
This. Kap’s general awareness is shy.
I was a bit surprised they signed him, given awareness and screw ups are their biggest issues
I see both players as very similar. I think both are reaping the benefits of their speed and experience and these are very important attributes for Knoblauch.
Meanwhile, both hit their peak as offensive contributors 6 & 7 seasons ago. With KK scoring a total of 12 goals and Janmark 6 over the past 2 seasons. Neither player were very effective, despite the visuals.
Logic dictates they can only go up from here, but their careers both show a consistent offensive decline and they are both no more than bottom of the roster players. These types of players can be had for half the cost.
These guys will most likely be jettisoned no later than December.
I just see Janmark as way more solid in his own end and in transition.
To characterize Kapanen’s career, he is the ultimate tease. He is down to his last chance, so it may work out better here than it did in Toronto, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis.
Say what?
This team lost five bottom-six forwards.
Curtis Lazar is barely an NHL player. His career per-82-game average is 7-11-18.
Kapanen was a healthy scratch for much of last season.
Tomasek…when was the last time a European 29-year-old NHL rookie skater became a meaningful contributor? Has this ever happened?
Savoie and/or Howard will surely be given playing time, but may struggle.
Henrique scored all of 27 points last year.
Injuries are a thing.
Unlike the last two years, there are a LOT of question marks in the bottom six.
Unfortunately, there’s plenty of room for Philp. Especially as the season goes on, and some of our question marks get moved into the ‘no’ category.
There are always questions until they’re answered. The odds of all the questions being answered increase with the number of answers. That should about answer it LOL.
Sergei Makarov, 31YO Calder award winner. Roman Cervenka was a useful player for Calgary in 2013. (These are reaches, but they exist)
Yeah, I’m disinclined to count guys like Makarov, because they were artificially held back because of the Iron Curtain. Plenty of those Red Army guys could have played in the NHL at 20.
Cervenka was OK but played only half a season.
I’m genuinely interested in comparables here. The one that comes to mind is Jiri Dopita, who did not last long.
Damien Brunner? Came over at 27, was okay and provided a few years of service, which would be a win in a bottom 6 role for Tomasek.
IMO Philp brings as much to the tble aaaas Janmark and Kapenen. Giv him a 40 game shot
I highly doubt RNH sees significant time at 3C this season.
Last season the coaching staff preferred RNH at 2C or LW. Choosing to play a struggling Henrique at 3C and Janmark, a LWer, at centre.
This season our winger depth is quite poor. I think RNH plays 85% of his time at LW.
1.5 points-60 at five-on-five, at his age, tells us Nuge may have hit a wall offensively. That takes him off the McDavid line. Draisaitl’s LW is going to be Podkolzin or Howard. The times they are a changin’
I hope you are right. I think Knobber is quite a conservative coach and will prefer to keep running RNH in the top six.
They can always play Nuge at 3c and move him up to 2c when they play Connor & Leon together as a top line. Frederic wants to play more center this season plus they have two or three RHC’s (Philp, Lazar & Tomasek) that can factor in. Henrique, Janmark & Kapanen shouldn’t be required to play center, though they could if needed. That’s plenty of center depth.
I both agree with you (RNH likely won’t see much time at 3C), and disagree about the tactic, as well as the Oilers’ relative strength at wing.
I believe playing with a veteran C with some consistency would benefit young wingers such as Podkolzin, Howard, and Savoie. Nuge’s intelligence makes him an effective C, while I believe a winger like Mangiapane will only succeed if he’s given an opportunity to play regularly in the top-6.
My guess is that McDavid prefers Nuge because of his refined game, even if Nuge’s finishing skill is lacking compared to other options. For this same reason I could see Henrique getting time alongside 97, but if Knoblauch is playing the long game he should have the kids bat higher up the lineup.
Henrique is the player to move, 3 million cap hit to play 4C.. barf.
Oilers could run any of Frederic, Janmark, Philp, Tomasek, Lazar all at 4C an get a better then expected performance from Frederic or an equal to Henrique performance from the rest.
Lots are chomping at the bit to rid of Janmark, sure but by all the same measurements Henrique should be the first to go, his cap hit is as ugly as anyone else’s and would provide much more room to wheel and deal. Janmark can be a 4C or a depth PK wing for less then half the price.
Easy call.
Henrique was asked to waive his NMC weeks ago and declined to do so. Janmark only has a 10 team NTC. One player can be traded, the other can’t.
I suspect Henrique will spend more time at W than C this year, giving some of thes young uns a chance to develop in the bottom 6… also then he serves a mentor role to facilitate this.
Its becoming more and more clear (at least to me) that there really isn’t room (roster or cap) for Mattias Janmark on this team at $1.45MM.
A good soldier but does not impact the on-ice product at a value of almost $700K over Philp or Lazar.
This is a defence only player that the coach trusts, to my eye, to a fault as he is not a mistake free player out there but is given rope as such.
Moving on from Janmark should be a priority – that contract was an overpay in AAV and term the minute Jackson signed it (and it was super odd given Jamark’s media avail a few days before that he hopes to be back and, given his season, isn’t expecting many calls from other teams).
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Bowman was clear earlier in the off-season that Philp has a role to play on this coming season’s team. Of course, that was before he signed Lazar.
My first instinct on the Lazar signing was “Philp Insurance” and he’s likely to start in the AHL but, since then, I’ve come to think that Lazar will be on the team – maybe not in the lineup every night but they likely don’t waive him.
I am hopeful that Lazar’s poor season last year was really due to the noted complication from surgery where a pin did not dissolve properly – the prior year he was VERY good in his role – that player has value and this player is not old, that form is there.
At the same time, a real run at 4C for Philp could provide real benefits – this kid has bossed the AHL at times and could be a very good 4C but he may be blocked.
Kapanen at $1.3MM, given its a $400K overpay from what he brought last regular season, should put him at risk as well.
I just can’t opine on Tomasek until I see him. I can see him anywhere from 4RW (probably not a good spot for him) to 2RW to the AHL – I have no idea. Waivers exempt is a thing.
It would appear to me that there’s no room on the roster for either of Janmark & Henrique and quite honestly, they can probably live without Kapanen. It all comes down to how ready Philp, Lazar, Tomasek, Savoie & Howard are to playing meaningful minutes at the NHL level. Janmark- $1,45M, Henrique-$3M & Kapanen-$1.3M, moving out one or two of those contracts would free up enough cap space to further upgrade in the bottom six later in the season or possibly sooner. As is they have nice depth with the potential to risk losing a player to waivers. I don’t believe the shuffling of this roster is done just yet.
Agree on Janmark and Kapanen and, while I agree that, at least last season, Henrique under-performed his cap hit, I think he is a more substantial player in a higher tier than Janny or Kap – a true center (although likely to play quite a bit of wing this season) with a better history of production.
Kapanen was similar to Janmark, a $300K (or more) over-pay based on a couple of playoff weeks. I like the player but he struggled big time during last regular season (and for part of the playoffs) and earned his healthy scratches.
This could be one of the most competitive camps we’ve seen in a while. Exciting for sure, we’ll get to see some intense pre-season hockey with some consequential tests of a bunch of on-the-edge players pushing each other. Yummy.
Six degrees of Kevin Bacon. My bestie is an athletic fellow, but has never been interested in team sports. Lives in the capital city, doesn’t watch hockey even in playoffs, but to his credit will ask what the score is
So of course he knows Rob Brown socially, and is friends with Dan Haight, among other people he knows around the Oilersphere. I don’t live in Edmonton anymore, so can’t try to third wheel my way. He could care less about the Oilers connection, what a waste of things he could ask that I would love to, if they’d tell me!
Philp`s defensive numbers are better, he is like Nuge…the defensive conscious on the line.
If we build a team with the 4th line as a checking line, not judged by offensive points then Philp is our 4C who can win draws and play PK at $775.
I liked how he played in his limited debut. Given time to settle in I think he’s a better hockey player than many 4th liners, which is perfect
Is he not competing for the exact same job as Curtis Lazar?
Yes Bowman has created a lot of competition to make the team at F
I have Lazar on the roster above. I think both he and Philp can make the team.
I can see both playing on the fourth line regularly.
agreed. It could be an effective unit.