NHL-ready

I’ve always believed (and Earl Weaver taught me) that when a young player is ready to compete at a certain level the best thing to do is elevate him to that level immediately. Don’t put him in a position to fail, but rather take the things he does well and place him in ideal circumstances at the higher level. What does that look like for Ike Howard? Let’s chat.

Last year you said “If Matthew Savoie scores eight goals in his first 20 AHL games, send for him” and he scored three in his first 10. You overrate prospects. Guilty as charged, but I do believe Savoie would have benefited from more NHL time a year ago. Organization would be better off now, as well.

You are projecting Ike Howard as an opening night player. Mistake. I suspect the organization gives Howard every chance to thrive in preseason, but it’s possible he’ll land in Bakersfield this fall. He should dominate there, but you never know with prospects. Maybe the adjustment takes time. As mentioned above, let the prospect tell you when he’s ready. Oilers would have done well in the case of Jesse Puljujarvi if they had heeded the words of Mr. Weaver.

Do you think Howard will flourish in the NHL this season? I have him projected for nine goals (Savoie 15) this coming season. Projections are here. I do have Howard on the opening night roster, but also project him to be a second-half contributor (as opposed to a feature role opening night).

Lots of great players come out of the Big-10, you know. Very true. However, most of the NHL impact players dominated the league at 18. Howard did it at 20. So did Georgii Merkulov.

You’re scaring me. Look, Howard led the league and he didn’t have a ton of help from his teammates. Plus he also had a strong Big-10 season at 19. I think you should enjoy watching young talent emerge, worry less about how this turns out.

Lots of prospect experts think Howard will struggle as an NHL rookie. I’m sure he will, and so will Savoie. It’s a tough league. Prospect experts tend to make strong statements that don’t allow for what is a wide range of outcomes. For instance, I thought at the time it was a mistake to put Jesper Walstedt in the Hockey Hall of Fame, but every swinging dick did it on draft day 2021. Let the prospects tell you what they are.

So ignore draft experts? Not at all. I’m saying that we can find out a bunch about prospects from math and from video. We should shy away from statements that imply more knowledge than we could possibly gain from both math and eye. I can say “I think Ike Howard is going to play in the NHL 20225-26, and if he can survive the early months, suspect he’ll start contributing offense by mid-season” without praise or burial. We’ve gotten, I think, too strong in our verbal, too certain our now opinions are correct. We don’t know a lot about these young players.

Well you sound certain about Howard. I’m reading the tea leaves, perhaps incorrectly. I’ve seen young players in the past decade pushed into roles because the GM made decisions (Griffin Reinhart, Jesse Puljujarvi) that handcuffed the coach. So, even if Howard isn’t ready, he could get games becase Stan Bowman brought him in to hurry up the time line. However, if Howard isn’t ready, the organization should send him to Bakersfield. Based on the Oilers own past, I don’t think we can say that is certain.