One thing I believe that runs counter to most: NHL teams are often the problem when it comes to prospect development. These teams either don’t know what to do with the player (Linus Omark a famous example) or have others in the queue who are better or can do more things. The funny thing is, the stalling out often comes right at the point these men are plug-and-play. Why? I wrote the following about Omark in the summer of 2011:
By eye and by math he appears to be a real hockey player. A guy like Robert Nilsson looked all world with the puck one minute and then disappeared for the rest of the game. Omark flies sorties every shift. They don’t work out all of the time, but there’s a tremendous amount of try. He’s hard on the puck and works like a bugger. He can stickhandle in a phone booth and can beat people wide and inside. On a team with crazy skill, Omark is his own unique individual. He’s his own man, very confident and skilled.
The words on Omark are specific to that player, but the disconnect at the point where prospects reach the NHL is universal.
I think Noah Philp is such a player. He is a useful player with great utility, he has size, can PK, scores enough to project as a bottom-six NHL regular, and owns a cap hit of $775,000. He is also waiver eligible this fall. Philp is a RH center, that has high value. He does have some learning to do, as the faceoff performance in the NHL (39 percent) isn’t inspiring. Philp is a durable player, he can win battles and play a rugged game.
Last fall, Philp was solid in preseason (1-1-2 at five-on-five in six games, 57 percent faceoffs) and should be in the mix for the Derek Ryan role this fall. Not every player on a roster owns a complete skill set. I think Philp brings enough to the game to be considered for the NHL roster in Edmonton this fall.
On the Lowdown today, Jason Gregor will be the feature guest and we’ll talk Elks, Riverhawks, Stingers, Oilers of course (Rumors will have a juicy one at 12:20) and more. 12-2pm, Sports 1440. Hope you can tune in.
How could Oilers upgrade via waivers or preseason trades? 5 potential targets
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6545298/2025/08/11/oilers-roster-waiver-wire-trade-targets/
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I just re-watched all the Oiler goals from the 2017 playoffs. Man, we really had Anaheim on the ropes. The Oilers forwards with Maroon, Lucic, and Kassian were fierce and went hard to the net. It was the right template for a team with young skill at Center. In addition Drake Caggiula looked fast and gritty, and Slepyshev could play. Only Eberle was unable to produce and got moved out weeks later for Ryan Strome.
But then the wheels fell off. All of the aforementioned wingers the Oilers kept failed to live up to expectations and the team languished for two seasons.
What is worst case scenario for Oilers wingers in ‘25-‘26?
Savoie is ineffective 5v5, Howard is a AAAA player unable to score consistently in the NHL, Mangiapane under contributes, while Frederic, Podkolzin, and Kapanen have 4th line output.
Im betting at least two of them can play in the top-6 with 97, 29, 93, and 18, but there’s a chance we lack for depth scoring which wouldn’t be a new thing.
Caggiula could never shoot the puck. And you can’t skate it into the net in the NHL.
Coaching blew that 2017 series. Even with Eberle not living up to what he should have been.
That, and the weak 6D. They had 3 hockey players for 6 spots.
That team beats Florida in both finals Kassian was in his prime and we had better goaltending.
Imagine Linus coming along as a young gun in 2025.
He’d be on the cusp of a run tearing it up with Leon and becoming an absolute legend.
I worry about the team’s history of jettisoning players for which they build a dislike, and failing to realize the value in the players. Omark might not have fit with what management was looking to create in E-town, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t have value. It’s like an inverse strategy to the pump and dump – the slump and dump. Use the player in a manner that highlights his weaknesses and deficiencies and thereby sewer his value on the open market.
The whole “management looking to create” thing is the problem.
Yes, it usually is a stumbling block. I see it as a focus on narrative over empirical assessment. The story is entrenched by various factors – junior team, nationality, draft position. It gets told many times to many listeners, and it becomes difficult to escape. It helps explain why certain players get multiple chances, while others get very few, if any. Cam Barker got a lot of second opportunities, Johan Auvitu wasn’t as lucky.
I feel likewise. I’m not in the room and no insider, but I haven’t seen much evidence of that kind of thinking. I believe there’ve been times where LT’s observed a marginal hockyer playing higher in the lineup and posited that such might auger a trade (pump the tires), In most cases alas it seems that LT’s been projecting the instincts of better hockey men onto Oil Admin.
Once an Oiler always an Oiler.
Once blacklisted yer name is mud and best practices can go suck an egg. At least during KLowe’s general management and early presidency.
Mike Comrie made a return to Edmonton in Lowe’s first year as President. Can’t imagine anyone more likely to have been blackballed than the player Lowe wanted the signing bonus money back from, but he got over that (eventually).
Lowe also held no grudges over Smyth leaving for what wasn’t that much money.
Lowe had time to cool off 🙃
Smyth an entirely different category, and I’m not talking hard fast rules. The language I used is a reflection of my frustration with the many times Oil failed to secure value for a still-marketable asset. More often they’d crater any leverage they might’ve had to move a guy.
Thinking more along the lines of roster vets who dared speak out (Souray), or whatever talented kid was deemed soft or disrespectful (various).
All was fair in love and war. Players knew Lowe was running a club on minimum wages. The only one that boggles my mind was Souray and how nasty it ended up being. I do wish Souray had the opportunity to get even for the slew-foot by Iginla.
— there’s lots of east coast MSM talking about McD signing for 2 or 4 years
— while I read this as code for “he should sign for the leafs” as a centre of universe hubris take
— anything other than max term is an organizational fail I won’t be convinced otherwise
— Plus new bargaining that won’t allow bonuses as tax deferal it’s now or never.
— 20 games into season, Oil sh!tng bed I be like “McD gone”
— It would be a tough betrayal of Drai his best buddy who signed long term
— Lots at stake. Don’t fall for the “a short term deal means Oil have to work harder to make the team a winner”. That’s BS. Fake narrative spin.
—Long term deal means as cap grows they accrue salary cap advantage during McDrai 8 year tenure
Put yourself in Connors shoes, what would you do?
Knowing that a significant top heavy team has seldom, or ever won a Stanley. How can you get paid enough yet still win?
Would you go for an 8 year deal at a lesser rate? That means years down the road you could be playing on a different team for a deep discount. You never intended to provide this discount to another team, it was for the Oilers and the Oilers window. (that includes Draisaitl)
Do you listen to your agent and take the top money?
Do you go for a lesser amount but limit it to 2-4 years? (12.5 – 14m range)
Im not trying to predict what Connor will do, but rather if there is a reasonable option to get reasonable dollars and still win the cup.
With Connor, Leon, Bouchard, Nurse holding such big contracts, do you believe they can win?
— a few things can be true
— Of course McD will sign what he wants max or short: they win in that time etc. he resigns again later maybe blah blah
— it’s just a massive fail for the organization to not lock him regardless of what McD does
— My gut is still sign for max as that’s what franchise players face of franchise guys generally do and sure bidness is bidness but it’s also relationships.
— Hard for him to look Drai in eye all time best buddy and team dynamics if his message is “I don’t trust the organization long term, I’m not committing long-term”. That’s not leadership.
— I’m however prepared for an Oil management fail and I won’t be tricked into anything other than they failed if not max.
— Put it another way: anything other than max contract is a fail of the organization vs how Florida did get max for their guys.
— what happens happens. But anything else is a fail for the organization: regardless of what we would think of McD.
How much money is enough money? Sid has made 150.45M at PuckP and took 8.7M, still one of the best in the game. Connor is about ten years younger and has made 92.78M
The guys that want to win first don’t put themselves first, there’s a balance. Ovi is at 9.5m. I firmly believe players are very loyal to and highly identify with the team that drafted them. I also think that team’s should only retire players like Connor and Leon, no one else. Sell the others to stay competitive
If Connor takes 17M with term he’ll catch Sid in earnings and pass in 5 years. He will retire with the highest earnings ever. It comes down to whether the team thinks he wants to play out in Edmonton. If they have any doubt they need to be in a position to fully capitalize on him as an asset
They will sign him if he wants to do that at close to the term he wants, and they will pay him what he wants. Whether these signings are the right thing to do, time will tell. Also whether doing shorter deals with Connor creates too much cap pressure to reach the goal
It is far better for the prospects of winning Cups if goes max term. At his age, the only teams that could ante up enough for him and not gut themselves (meaning his chances at a Cup are lower than in Edmonton) are lesser teams with tons of youth and draft capital, putting him in build mode again in his 30’s. It would be different if he was 25
I don’t see why he wouldn’t take 8 years at whatever and be happy with 200M or whatever at the end, and it’s not like he can’t ask out at any time. And that’s not even counting outside money and investment income he can earn. How many people in Canada have that much money? Not very many, it’s not like he’s missing out becoming one of the richest people in his country, but we’ll see
I don’t understand this statement and “regardless of what McD does”
There is now a trend away from max year deals and many of it are client’s of McDavid’s current agent (i.e. Matthews).
— Put it another way: anything other than max contract is a fail of the organization vs how Florida did get max for their guys.
Who, Sam Bennett who got massively overpaid? Marchand, signed until he’s 43?
Ekblad? Barely worth his new cap hit today let alone in his late 30s.
Couldn’t agree more. Anything less than 8 years is one foot out the door.
Regardless of what happens we can’t have another Mitch Marner scenario where McDavid finishes his contract year without resigning. If McDavid decides to move on I would think he would have enough class to make sure Edmonton recieved the best possible package for him.
— true – he is signing a contract this off season.
— obv not as blunt as this but Oilers approach ought to be max contract or maximize trade.
— of course they won’t do that it would be impossible to trade him and sell the fans
— but if they don’t get max contract they will sell the fans on how great it is and “we’ve got things to do to show him we are winners long term”
— He’s an oiler for a few years full stop. Just depends on how many.
— I’d be disappointed in McD if he didn’t sign long term. The leafs are kidding themselves with Matthews : he signed the min and has foot out the door. Leaf nation just aren’t being told so
It is the Oilers still, if they had to trade him they would probably say nice things and then the daggers would come out. Might also be bad for the head honcho, but he doesn’t go to Edmonton very often
As mentioned above, players are very loyal to their draft team; later on in one’s career, not so much.
If McDavid wanted to sign two years for cheap, its not a fail. Its a compromise to allow best chance of winning.
He can make big dollars on his next contract and why not in Edmonton? Cap will go up, this is his team. There is no reason not to extend trust.
— 17 x 8 =136.
— I’m with Slushy: his best chance to win over the next 8 years is to sign max with Oil and cap grows making him relative value.
— pretty sure he does. Don’t see how it can be argued that anything other than max is a win for oil (not what one would do if they were Conner)
Just like Leon who is loyal Connor will sign for max length of time. These two have the opportunity to be with the organization another 35 years as G.M and Coach. This is a pretty sweet life if they go the Crosby-Malkin path.
These posts are full of exaggeratory statements:
Yes, it’s imperative that if he’s not 100% in to get ahead of it.
I don’t care what term McDavid signs for, as long as he signs. A short term deal means a more favorable AAV. A max deal would come with an AAV that would be painful for the first couple of years.
I am perfectly fine with McDavid having control over duration and AAV.
My preference would be for four years or longer, but in the end, it is not something I am worried about.
I just do not want him on an expiring contract. I want at least a rolling two years left on his deal.
Hate to break it to you but its not only the eastern media on this – even Bob Stauffer has been saying its looking like 3-4 years.
I’d prepare yourself accordingly.
Perhaps McDavid will sign for 4-years at a lower AAV than for 8. At the end of a 4-year term, he’ll still be top of the league and the cap will be materially higher and he won’t be the highest paid in the league. If he signed for 8 years now, he’d need to price in the rising cap, etc.
— there are more than 100 contracts of 7-8!years signed last few years
— Matthews is the cautionary tale : he didn’t do 8 because he doesn’t like playing for the leafs,he didn’t want to commit to being with a loser organization and he wants to be the man in a big US market as an American. He has one foot out door and fans and press have been fed a narrative to believe anything other than that
— Fans often rationalize sub optimal results
— This is the last year 8 year contracts with bonus deferral are available. He can sign the largest contract in NHL history and secure max competitiveness and cost certainty for the organization through his peak into his mid-30s
— It’s just kidding oneself that any other outcome is superior for the team.
If he does the 4 year deal then it sets him up for a 8 year deal? I’m sure this is what his agent and probably a lot of other folks near him have been telling him. When’s enough money enough? If Connor want’s to be a Oiler for life including management he signs a 8 year deal. He’s the Captain for fuks sakes the optics of a
8 year deal will be phenomenal for the organization.
Another post full of exaggeratory statements. I mean those statements on Mathews don’t line up with the reality that he could have signed as a UFA for the 2023-24 season but has given 5 UFA seasons to the Leafs – FIVE!
The fact that, when the new CBA rules kick in, only 60% of total comp can be bonuses is not nearly as big a deal for a Canadian resident.
If Tomasek makes the team as a utility infielder he could possibly be the 4C but I do think Lazar will have that roll and it’s his job to lose. I believe Philip is down the page and will need to see some injuries or Tomasek doesn’t pan out if he’s going to see many games.
Tomasek might be a guy they can plug in anywhere up or down the lineup on the wing or possibly at center. He’s certainly a player to watch.
Tomasek and Howard are both pure goal scorers. Tomasek should be able to score 15 with his eyes closed. He played junior here so he knows the surface whether he can adapt to tighter time and space we are going to find out.
I’m not sure his two forgettable seasons in the OHL 12 years ago are meaningful. The key will be if he’s able to play at the pace needed to in the NHL.
This could be right but Philp and Tomasek play completely different style of games. I wonder if the plan/hope is for Tomasek to play up on the third line.
If Tomasek is the real deal the 3rd line is where he belongs or maybe even higher. All the talk has been about Howard-Savoie what happens If Tomasek hits the ground running?
Tomasek is a huge wild-card. He could be a total non-NHL player or he could be a legit middle six right handed complimentary scorer of some sort.
I like the idea of scouring every part of the planet to find a possible value contract. If Tomasek doesn’t work out it amounts to very little cap but if he does pop for 15-20 and is responsible that is one hell of a find by team Bowman.
Philp’s play was night and day in the A after he came back from his first call-up with Big Club. He was noticeable almost every shift and excelled at taking the puck to the inside. Confidence is a thing.
I think (hope) Philp can be the second coming of Kyle Brodziak. He absolutely should be given a full run to see what he can do on the 4th line.
Agreed.
Its impossible for me to waive Noah Philp and keep Janmark on the roster for close to double the cap hit. Of course, Janmark is more established and his defensive accumen more proven but I think Philp can do the job (and more being a real center and likely to score more) at more value for cap hit.
I could even throw Kapanen on that list of players that could/should be waived over Philp but their jobs are very different. Lets not forget, Kapanen fully earned many healthy scratches during the regular season and got over-capped to $1.3MM based on about 4 really good playoff games. I really like his game when he’s on but that’s rare during an 82 game season.
In any event, I hope management and the coaching staff don’t “default to Lazar” and give Philp a real opportunity – a run of 20 games at 4C (or even 4RW depending on how things break) with 10-12 minutes of 5 on 5 and some depth PK work – we’ll know what we have!
Agreed on both.
I like Kap but unless he shows another gear he’s still a tweener a la Liam Reddox (imo), with last year’s playoffs likely representing his absolute ceiling.
Philp as LT has a full range. It would be heading the wrong way to keep the highly inconsistent ‘looks like a player’ Kap over him. Janmark didn’t have the playofss he had the previous season, and basically didn’t do much of anything. PK was way off
When you find a younger but old enough to be ready RS C you take him, and give him the room and help to establish. He’ll figure it out
I’ve been waiting for Philp to grab that 4c for a while now. The problem is he’s not great at faceoffs. If he can’t figure out how to win draws consistently Lazar has proven he can. Philp may have to play on the wing. Lazar is comfortable on either wing if Philp should latch on to the 4c job. But really, it’s more like this season they have a 1A RH4C & a 1B RH4C which in my eyes isn’t a bad thing at all. I prefer both these players over Janmark & Kapanen on the fourth line. Tomasek is another name that could appear in the battle for RH4C.
Has it really been “a while” of waiting?
I mean, last season was his first season in the conversation (his first season back from his season off).
Lazar clearly is better at faceoffs in the NHL right now but he’s all over the place, below and above 50% from year to year. Note Lazar’s first 5 season of faceoff percentages make Nuge look an all-time faceoff great. It seems more than any other skill, faceoffs seem to require reps and Philp needs the reps – he had faceoff acumen at U o A, I believe, and did in Bako.
Tomasek, from accounts, is good on faceoffs, at lest over-seas. I agree he could be in play for 4C but I’m not sure he’s not going to get a shot on the 3rd line.
Just another thought, I like Kapanen but wonder if someone like Klim Kostin could provide everything that Kapanen does with more of a physical factor.
There’s the possibility we could see them fade Janmark, Kapanen & Henrique.
Klim is an fun guy, but he’s less of an NHL player than Kasperi, there’s no room for guys that can’t figure it out on a team like ours
The last time he was in Edmonton he was able to parlay it into a two year $2M contract the next season. Detroit was more interested in him than Yamamoto.
His archetype is always appealing, and so those guys get a few kicks at the can. But more often than not, they aren’t cut out for the NHL on good teams. Same with Kap – big fast skilled and will be physical. But being inconsistent and a liability doesn’t pan out in the long run
And since that day he has been a below replacement level play on two non-playoff teams.
Holland absolutely fleeced Yzerman on that deal.