I wrote the passage above in the hours after the Edmonton Oilers drafted Connor McDavid. At that time, the organization was drafting players 10 at a time (37 men between 2010 and 2013) in an effort to reimagine the future.
Here we are, 10 years later, and the organization’s ownership and management are at a low ebb in draft and development, the game’s biggest star is speaking in vague terms about his Alberta future, and Oilers fans are developing a twitch.
I wrote about the McDavid situation yesterday at The Athletic (it is here) and that’s my view of the situation at this time. I do believe there could be a point where we need to discuss what happens if the negotiation becomes a non-negotiation as the fall bleeds into winter.
If McDavid plans to play out his walk year without signing an extension, it’s my opinion the club needs to deal him. The distraction of the situation would be untenable, the questions would be a daily part of all Oilers avails, and the discontent in the fan base would overwhelm.
Trading a player of McDavid’s quality is impossible. And yet, the Oilers as an organization can’t afford to let him walk away next summer with no assets coming back (leaving aside the increased cap room). I wrote about what a McDavid deal might look like earlier this summer (article is here) and concluded the Oilers would receive far less than what would be considered equal value.
My guess was Brandt Clarke, a first-round pick and a young prospect like Liam Greentree or Francesco Pinelli. When I wrote the piece, many comments suggested the package might be Adrian Kempe, Brandt Clarke and several first-round selections. I get that, but the Kings aren’t going to trade much that could be useful in a Stanley Cup run.
Now that Ken Holland spent all of the cap dollars on free agents, the deal might not be with Los Angeles (McDavid wants to win) and would have to include a bloated contract. The Carolina Hurricanes have cap room, the young assets to make a deal happen, and the desire to acquire a franchise player. That is probably the best match at this time.
One hopes this gets done in the next few days. If it doesn’t the cloud of uncertainty probably settles over this team and the outcome becomes something rancid.
There is danger here, getting a contract done soon is absolutely the best way forward. HOW does that happen? Well, McDavid hasn’t expressed what the requirement might be (I took a guess in the Friday article) and it’s a bad idea for any management group to chase a new reality this close to training camp.
McDavid has something in mind. Is it free agency next summer? Oilers management better find out in a quick hurry. You can’t just wish this into the cornfield.
Had a chance to listen to Tyson Barrie on 100% Hockey from a few days ago on a mental health walk. Such a great dude and a fun listen. I encourage anyone that’s got 30 minutes to tune in.
I also feel better about the “intel” from John Shannon that McDavid will go in to the season without a contract that is making the rounds on social media.
Yes, he made that exact statement but, when Millard asked him why he thinks that, its not based on any actual intel or inside information (that he mentioned, and from knowing Shannon over the year, he would have mentioned) but he thinks that McDavid is best able to “manage the situation” in that manner. Whatever that really means, I now feel better. I thought that Shannon had heard something from inside the org as he does know alot of people but this is propagation of his opinion all along this will not be done quickly.
100% HockeyHanging Them Up: Tyson Barrie Reflects on His NHL JourneyEpisode 94, Aug 28 at 12:19 PM
Transcript of the relevant section:
I don’t see anything in Shannon’s statements that indicate that he thinks McDavid won’t sign with Edmonton. Only that McDavid will enter the season without an extension. It will be interesting to see how late this goes and what the power play will be. Maybe the power play isn’t dollars and term, but something else.
He may be waiting to see how the changes to the lineup work out.
If Savoie and Howard don’t make an immediate impact the Oilers have given up a lot of scoring in the past two offseasons.
That and questionable goaltending might give him pause and the uncertainty surrounding Hyman and Nuge can’t help.
Yes, given how the last two seasons started, and where they ended, McDavid is surely looking to see how this season starts to make his decision!
The Oilers sent out 63 goals in the offseason and Hyman may not be ready to be effective.
Pretty sure Mangiapane won’t score that many so if Savoie and Howard don’t hit the ground running, things might give him pause.
Completely ignores the point.
I remember the day of the Gretzky trade. It was gut-wrenching. And I’m just a fan. It was tougher on the players. They were defending champs, but that next season was a washout. They came back to win it again the year after, but I think The Trade was emotionally devastating. I sure don’t want to go through that again.
Which brings us to right now. If McDavid doesn’t sign by training camp, and then season opener, and then pushing up to the trade deadline… the pressure will just get worse and worse.
That’s partly why I think he will sign something soon.
He will, won’t he?
Like LT said, the value that they’d get would be vastly diminished knowing that you just need to wait a couple of weeks and then it’s just money, no assets.
The Gretzky trade was telegraphed in the spring, nothing like that with Conner. I have no inside knowledge but my guess is 3 years.
I think an important angle to consider here is, how much is McDavid worth to Katz?
The Oiler’s provide the family about $25-$30M annually.
The club has a high valuation because it sells out the arena, sells lots of merchandise and sell $18 beers because of McDavid.
Ice District provides the family about $50M annually.
Ice District has a high valuation because it attracts 20,000-40,000 people 60 time a year to watch McDavid.
Capspace or Nurses’ contract are background noises for any consideration on how much or how long McDavid’s contract will be.
For billionaires that own hockey teams, the wages for the seasonal employee are only a small part of the business plan.
There is no seasonal employee that can make the Katz family more than McDavid. A bunch of asset or cap space is not going to fill the JW.
Great take. Sather said as much, the GMs job is really about the bottom line, building the team is a function of that, not the actual priority. And it is the way it should be in a pro league. It takes dollars to pay all of those bills
The Owner could actually compensate Connor with a piece of the action after he retires, to make up anything Connor left on the table. I know a fella that runs a fishing lodge group, later 60’s, and he’s very good at it. He loves it, has the personality to deal with the kinds of poeple that go to them. He gets calls from guys like Kevin Kostner when they want something
He told the owners he wanted to retire, and they said they wanted him to stay. His offer was that he would, but he wanted a stake if he was going to, which they gave him
Our Owner is very loyal to the boys on the bus and I can see Leon-Connor being part of the Oilers organization for the next 35 years. Booook it……….
No cap in your friend’s world. 100 % cap circumvention if there is a legally binding commitment to any compensation of any kind outside the contract which is limited to cash compensation. Sure maybe the owner could give a wink and a nod, but that would not provide any guarantee that would stand up in court. It was legal in Orr’s day. Lemieux only ended up with ownership because the team was defaulting on his contract.
It’s highly unlikely certainly, could lead to legal unpleasantness, but I think if that was desired it could get done. If Connor signed for 6M and every contract was well under market value and they did that, the league would probably have grounds. If the contracts are around market value, I can’t see any realistic challenge, it wouldn’t have been an easily provable form of cap circumvention, business as usual
Connor if he stays will make the owner and his family a lot of money, far more than Connor will make. If I was the owner, especially if they win some Cups, and I made boatloads of profit because of him, I’d give him 5 or 10% as a retirement gift. Maybe Leo as well
Can people actually be this Naive the 1% have a cheat code when it comes to the line in the sand.
As a person in corporate finance, I can say with veracity that successful business people are generally loath to give up equity in their business.
The idea the owner “gifting 5%-10%” is wild.
I’ve been as adamant as any Oiler fan, blogger, media member that I have zero doubt that he’s re-signing and that its 100% happening before the start of the season and highly likely that its before the start of camp.
With that said, as time has gone on, I’ve started to waiver on a few things.
Months ago I was confident of something in the $16.5MM X 8 range. Over the last little while its been clear we are looking at closer to the $16.5MM X 8 range and that’s where I am now.
5 days ago, and even in the days after his presser, I was adamant that 100% this is happening before the season and almost assuredly before camp.
Now, in the last 48 hours, I have a small small part of me that thinks maybe this does bleed and, for me, the trigger is not bleeding from the fall in to the winter but from the summer in to the fall.
If this isn’t done by camp, that is something material.
If this isn’t done by opening night, that is a big, big big damn deal.
I don’t see it happening but I’ve gone from 100% to 95%.
I don’t see it happening either, but time is not on the Oilers side. The management group needs to set a ‘drop dead’ date and proceed accordingly. McDavid has outrageous value today. Next June, after the final? Less, especially if the team doesn’t win.
For me the signing of Leon is a tell these two still have time to put up multiple cups with huge numbers as they transition into Oilers management.
— yeah I’m in this camp. Only think Drai did the 8 because McD said he does 8
– Drai didn’t sign until early September. That’s what McD will do. For max
— Else we don’t know what we do t know about the behind the scenes.
— Also these billionaire owners ALL do “off-book” deals with their favourites : private jet access vacations at their places that professional athletes can’t afford, taking care of their families etc.
—All that said it’s clear McD isn’t “all in” and that’s the “negotiation” : org telling him different iterations of what he’s heard from 6 different coaches and 3 GMs during his tenure
As Captain McDavid won’t leave his teammates at the altar the way Mitch did. If he chooses to leave he’ll do it in such a way that Edmonton players and fans will respect his decision and Bowman’s return will be a full shopping cart.
In order to have done that, McDavid would have had to have let management know but in June of an intention to go to market next summer.
Exactly this is all for show no way McDavid pulls a Mitch Marner and leaves his mates Leon-Nurse-McDavid-Nuge-Hyman-Bouchard to the Vultures.
I don’t think anything is for how – he hasn’t done or said anything since the end of the season or real substance – its simply been media, bloggers and fans trying to make stories.
All he’s said, from the beginning, is all he needs is the team showing a commitment to be a consistent contender and that he’s in no rush.
He wasn’t going to say last week “yes, this has to get done by the time camp starts” or “no, I won’t talk contract once the season starts” or anything like that to increase all the noise in the next two weeks. He knows what its going to look like and when it will get done, in the next few weeks.
If its not announced by the start of the season, even the start of camp, then I’ll be changing my tune as, essentially between now and camp was always the real time period for announcement.
As the Captain and a stand up individual I don’t see McDavid stringing his teammates and fan base along all year.
Low ebb in drafting, sure. Of course, 1st round picks used to acquire Ekholm, Walman and Howard factors in.
Development, well, so we not need to give some time to current management’s (and ownerships’s) clear investment in development? They’ve built a department over the last 12-18 months and it will need time to bear fruit.
One important factor on the low ebb in drafting has to be Bowman’s aggressive work in procurement from Europe and the NCAA. He’s made a lot of decent bets, all of which are zero risk – most won’t play for the Oilers but if one or two of Samanski, Tomasek, Leppanen, Hutson, Carfagna, Marjala can impact the middle of the roster in the best 0-24 months, that is real.
For me, there is nothing more the org needs to show McDavid to appease what he says matters and sign for at least 3-4 years. The team is good now, one of the best over the last few years. The core is back – massive investments in Drai and Bouchard have been made. The manager is aggressive but not irresponsible – letting over priced vets walks and adding in young talent that should reasonably be able to replace what’s left. Ownership provides the private jet like McDavid’s personal taxi and, from accounts, has a great relationship with Connor and Lauren.
I don’t imagine doesn’t sign before the season and, if he doesn’t, there is always a chance, I’ll be miffed for sure.
It seems to me that people were panicking in the same manner last summer, before Leon went and re-upped for another 8 years.
Don’t let the clickbait media get to your heads.
There’s absolutely no way McDavid would accept a trade to LA. It’s not the 1990’s anymore, and LA isn’t the glitzy, glamorous place that it used to be. The Kings two best players are at age when they are going to fall off a cliff any day now, and then that team slides back to total mediocrity.
He’s not going to Toronto either … not after Marner revealed that he had to hire security for his family after the 2025 playoff run.
Connor wearing any other jersey would be like Gretzky wearing a Blues jersey; an utterly forgettable part of his legacy.
Connor will sign, and it will be at a number that won’t cripple the organization from building a perennial contender in Edmonton. He doesn’t want to be a footnote in NHL history … *greatest player to never win a Cup with the team that drafted him*
I think McDavid is already sick of being asked about his contract. I personally think he signs a contract next week or the week after and I don’t think it is less than 4 years. Does anyone think he is blowing a smoke screen job just to come out and shut everyone up and sign a 8 year deal?
He says he wants to win in Edmonton so to me that says he is signing. I am also sure if he signed an 8 year deal and things started to go really crappy after 3 or whatever, he could go into His X agents office and say trade me to ( wherever he wants to go) , and his X agent would move him . Hey it may even be written into a new contract.
Now if it comes to a trade I am sure the McDavid’s would want to go to California.
LA probably as LT has his trade. Brandt Clarke would Definitely be a must piece, but I would want the big C man as well in Byfield. Those 2 would be must gets. Plus high picks or prospects.
But it is moot as he will sign in the next few weeks is my bet.
It cannot be written in to the contract.
My belief is that K has learned from P, and there is no chance he will trade McDavid. He will let McDavid walk rather than trade him.
I also refuse to get perturbed by the current situation. I still believe McDavid will sign as soon after he gets back to Edmonton for the season. Probably two to four years.
If no contract, I believe the season will play out with McDavid as an Oilers, and then the future hinges on whether the Oilers win a Cup or not, and/or on whether Howard and Savoie are players or duds.
If I were to speculate on September trades, I think there are only three destinations that meet McDavid’s requirements. The Maple Leafs, the Rangers, and the Bruins.
One could certainly do McDavid to the Leafs for Knies, Carlo, Laughton, Cowan, Woll, plus….
It is more challenging to see what the Bruins would trade.
The Rangers would have to convince Zibenijad to waive his NMC… Zibanejad, Schneider, Cooley, plus.
Mcdavid walking out the door UFA should be a fireable offence for the whole management team.
IF he’s not willing to sign prior to the season starting you have to trade him.
Edmonton isn’t New York or L.A. they’re not going to attract the next best UFA as a replacement.
I can’t imagine any of that happens either but no way do you let him walk.
What if McDavid won’t waive and won’t sign?
Hopefully the trade would be better than Jimmy Carson and 3 firsts.
You forgot Martin Gelinas.
…and the $15 M
I can’t believe we’re broaching this subject, but here we are. And for the record, aside from the Chiarelli years and the ensuing recovery period, I don’t think it’s fair to criticize the team’s efforts to put a winner on the ice.
Buuuttttt, and only for fun and conversation, could Bowman parlay a McDavid trade into a means to include Nurse in the deal? The cap would be in great shape then, and undoubtedly some good prospects/picks would be coming back to Edmonton. And again, I am in no way condoning a McDavid trade.
Interesting idea. One thing we haven’t gotten into, and may as time goes on, pertains to Draisaitl. Edmonton could contend if Leon remains and Bowman can turn the McDavid draft picks/assets into outscoring players, but you’d need Leon in order to avoid complete disaster. And i DO understand losing McDavid would be a disaster.
I’m throwing around Canes names in my head that would be part of a package for McDavid and Nurse. Is Jarvis, Blake, Kotchetkov, a first and a second reasonable? Again, just for fun. I can’t see Carolina balking at anything if they’re getting McDavid, and it scratches a few itches from Edmonton’s standpoint.
I was considering Nurse being in it as well, wishful thinking. He would probably waive to go with Connor. It would be like McSorley going with Wayne as Wayne wanted some back up. Nurse wouldn’t return anything because of his contract, but I think it has to be done as soon as possible regardless
My first thought was Buffalo, McDavid/Nurse/Skinner for Thompson/Dahlin/Luukkonen+
A first line of Thompson Drai Hyman would be beast mode, and Dahlin would make our backend Elite.
McDavid might wave for Buffalo.
Haha, I did forget about that little tidbit.
I honestly despise NMC, I get that players earn the right to having stability and certainty in their lives and do what’s best for them, but teams should also not be handcuffed to do what’s best for the team if the player decides they don’t want to be there anymore.
Not many of your articles make me feel nauseous LT… this one did.
Think I’ll cue up Stevie Ray Vaughan Life Without You and start drinking early.
Robert Cray’s The Forecast Calls For Pain in another option here.
Many teams would give up a lot to get Connor. The only way that doesn’t happen is if Bowman lets himself get into a position that other GMs can exploit. He seems smarter than that, and he also isn’t sentimental about his players
He has a much more pragmatic view I think than the guy before him, understands his job is to make his team the best it can be, not take care of player’s feelings. Taking care of players is part of making the team it’s best, and Bowman isn’t a sociopath, he does care I think, but movement is part of pro sports and he’s asked a few of them to open that possibility. I’m pretty sure Nurse and Henrique would be in a new town if they had waived
I don’t think there is any rift between the captain and the org, I have read or heard exactly zero about that, and we would hear it in Edmonton. Connor doesn’t seem like he would want to harm the team by being purposefully difficult to put the Oilers in a position to be exploited. With Marner, it is the same GM that lost his two best players in Calgary unexpectedly, and went for the trifecta in Toronto
If Connor does want out, that process is fair and smooth, Bowman makes the right choices and gets them, the Oilers might end up a better team overall. And for longer, you never know, but it would suck to the high heavens to go through, for them and us
Teams aren’t going to give up assets that can help them win the Stanley. Picks are going to be the currency.
You may be right. I lean to that we have seen how crazy GMs can be when they really want a certain player. And that draws more of them in, either from FOMO or that they don’t want to be seen as not even trying to get one of two generational players currently in the league that became available, which is very rare
Of course Connor would have to want to go to a team that had the right mix of chips. Bowman mentioned that at the trade deadline regarding Rantanen, and there aren’t likely many, which supports what you’re saying
The Marner deal is another recent example.
That is the issue for sure. Like Would LA give up both Clarke and Byfield for starters. Not sure they would. .
A business-focused owner may well go the route of evaluating based on the franchise value increase.
That has been McDavid’s biggest contribution to the Oilers so far, and would be to a new team as well.
The bidding war would be intense, and the haul the Oilers could return would actually give a greater shot at a Cup than having McDavid. They probably win immediately. But only one. Which has never been the point.
This is all likely moot from the word go, but still interesting to speculate.
We have to remember about how many of these guys care first for the bottom line though. They keep making the sport worse for a short term infusion of expansion cash…They clearly aren’t grand visionaries.
I don’t think there are any owners that will choose to lose money for more than a short time. They didn’t become that rich by doing that. You also can’t just move money around because you want to, there are legalities involved with corporations. It’s often said that the owner is so rich they can cover it etc, really it just means they have move options if things get tough than someone whose money is largely based on the team. And the rare few owners that do bleed money lose their franchises like Arizona
We don’t need picks. We have a window and magic beans that might amount to something in four years is useless. Not to mention any team he goes to is not going to have picks in the top five.
If you have teams offering Auston Matthews, then the deal is easy. I don’t think teams are going to offer Auston Matthews, because the want McDavid AND Matthews in order to win the Stanley Cup.
I really don’t see McDavid not signing or being traded. If I am wrong on this, I envision a haul like Colorado/Nordiques got for Lindros as being the price.
I don’t know if general managers today make those kinds of deals. It’s more of a management team now, and organizations would be hesitant to include a Peter Forsberg in any trade. Imagine what would have happened for Philly if they kept Forsberg? They would have had a much better chance at Stanley during Lindros’ career.
True enough, but I was looking at it more like what Colorado/Nordiques were willing to accept, rather than what Philly was willing to give up. The final result, should it come to pass, will be compromise between these two points. Knowing his value, I think the Oilers would hold VERY firm on a similar high return in general and that McDavid is very aware of that as well and given his regard for his Edmonton teammates, fans and the organization in general, would not feel too good about leaving them in dire straits by taking a much lesser return than the team can live with… but that is my opinion on his mindset and general character…
We are talking about near term trade, right?
How does a team Connor is willing to go to fit in $12.5MM without giving up signifgent current valued assets?
No chance this happens without at least one real roster player of value included. An LA trade doesn’t happen without at least one of Byfield or Kempe (in addition to Clark), right?
The deal I suggested was before free agency. I did mention in the article that a trade now would have a decidedly different look, although Carolina has lots of cap room.
Fair enough.
Earlier this week on the show, you discussed what Calgary would get for Andersson, and the package wasn’t all that different than what you’re suggesting Edmonton would get for the best player in the game?
The deal I discussed in the article was before free agency The deal now could be far worse. A bloated $8 million player, another mid-level piece and then picks. Andersson is an easier trade, but McDavid would clearly bring more, but not enough immediate help. The Pronger deal was similar.
I think you’re drastically underestimating the impact that 97 possibly hitting the market would have. Toronto has been drooling at the thought for years. You do t think they’d cough up more than 3 assets to have him there? The only thing that comes close to a comparable that’s ever taken place is the Lindros deal. 97 wouldn’t command that in the cap era, but suggesting they’d get a similar return to a the Flames dealing a middle pair dman is way on the pessimistic side IMO.