After a Game 1 loss we have the usual combination of calm mixed with unease among comments on this blog. Same as it ever was. I don’t think anyone is out of their brain on the 5:15 over it, but the lack of sample size at the beginning of the season often raises levels of anxiety. Why? Well, put simply, we don’t know what we don’t know.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- On the road to: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1)
- At home to: Montreal (1-0)
- On the road to: Seattle, Vanouver (1-1)
- At home to: Mammoth, Rangers (1-0-1)
- Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- Actual Record: 0-0-1, one point in one game
The Oilers are still figuring out their roster and the addition of Jack Roslovic further complicates things. You can see a path that lands both rookie wingers (Matt Savoie and Ike Howard) in part-time roles or on the Bakersfield Condors roster. In this way, the Oilers still have to decide what they want to accomplish this season.
If the decision is to bet on Roslovic scoring 25 while Howard does similar in Bakersfield, that’s a reasonable decision, in my opinion. What isn’t reasonable is to expect Howard to arrive back in Edmonton during February and deliver like a player who has 40 games of NHL experience. I suspect coach Kris Knoblauch will like Roslovic well enough to play him as a regular, and that may benefit the team now and into the future. If the club believes Howard has a higher scoring ceiling, then playing the rookie now would be the right play. We’ll see. I don’t think this is an easy choice and I do believe both options can work.
The same decision may be forced on the coaching staff in net. The Bakersfield Condors season begins this afternoon in San Jose versus Barracuda, but Connor Ingram won’t play. The AHL schedule is light on games early in the year, so Game 2 is next weekend. At a guess, I would say any recall of Ingram happens after he has clearly established himself as an option (say 10 games). The caveat is poor performances by the Oilers goaltending tandem can hurry sundown for Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard.
I spoke to Jason Gregor yesterday, he thinks Calvin Pickard gets the net this evening after watching practice. If Pickard performs well, I think it makes sense to run him in the road game against the Rangers. This is a position that is transitioning, and that means running with what works. Miles to go, and a trade at the deadline remains the most likely outcome.
Draisaitl – McDavid – Frederic
Mangiapane – RNH – Savoie
Podkolzin – Philp – Kapanen
Howard – Henrique – Tomasek
Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Emberson
Nurse – Regula
Pickard
Skinner
Those are the Friday lines via Tony Brar. I’ve added in Nurse (who was ill) and moved up Pickard to reflect the possibility he starts. Some urgency for Savoie and Howard, with Roslovic on the roster and the need to send someone to Bakersfield in the coming days to make room for Jake Walman and (later) Zach Hyman.
Headed to Tech CU arena for the season opener this afternoon. Curious which Condors players are exciting to watch this season?
Samanski
Leppanen
Marjala
Hutson
I hope like hades that at least 2 of those players do enough to garner a recall or roster spot in the next season or two.
— I like the goalie change after 1 game
— Old School :”we play our starter come hell or high water because he’s the starter”
— New School :” you don’t bring your A-game, we not going to give you more games to find it”
— I like this results driven approach
I was chatting recently with a young goalie who plays in a very competitive league. I had asked him about Skinner. It was interesting. He really didn’t like his style of play, but was completely unable to articulate the issues. In fairness, he plays in BC, so not someone that watches the Oilers a ton.
Most casual Oilers fans lament his lack of side to side movement speed, hence his nicknames, “the statue.”
That vapour lock goal was a killer.
The problem is a flaw in hockey man logic.
Hockey men logic, “Skinner got us to the cup finals the past two years in a row.”
Instead of maybe, “We got to the cup finals two years in a row in spite of having Skinner.”
Last season, Skinner’s save percentage was 21/28 for goalies who played more than 2500 minutes.
I think most Oilers fans see the Skinner issue as a flaw in team building. $2.6 million goalies who can start is not a long list, but the team continues to spend money on defense and forwards. Skinner is the target of fans, but management owns a lot of the blame for goaltending as a position. From Jack Campbell’s signing through today.
Absolutely, Holland bungled things with the Campbell contract. His buyout is still $2.5 million against the cap.
You’re also correct that we need to be mindful of Skinner’s cap hit.
Modern analytic driven teams view the position as volatile and limit contract exposure. Fortunately, Holland is now busy throwing wrenches in the Kings’ cap structure.
Pickard has been fine for what he is, but I’d really like to see the Skinner/Ingram tandem as the next step.
Agreed, I also see their success misattributed for my senses. They were well down the goalie list in playoffs as well. Both goalies have good stretches of games, but usually a top team has a goalie that is top half most of the time, not up and down, especially when the chips are down
Even top goalies can have weaknesses, like Helleybuick in playoffs. But if your goalie has to have a certain structure in front of him to play well, it’s on the GM and coaches to see that it happens, or you get the Jets
Bowman doesn’t strike me as standing pat on this, but he’s not been rash so far. He also seems to see players better than it was before. I see him willing to do what the Avs did if he deems it necessary and change it up completely in season. As it should be
Per Stauffer:
The @EdmontonOilers morning skate:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Frederic
Mangiapane-RNH-Savoie
Podkolzin-Philp-Kapanen
Howard-Henrique-Tomasek
Lazar-Roslovic
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Regula
Kulak-Emberson
Walman (IR)-Stecher
Pickard
Skinner
https://x.com/bob_stauffer/status/1977048621330972895?s=46
Won’t get to see Roslovic tonight.
Wouldn’t mind seeing:
Podkolzin-Philip-Roslovic
Picks with the start tonight.
Morning Skate per Stauff:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Frederic
Mangiapane-RNH-Savoie
Podkolzin-Philp-Kapanen
Howard-Henrique-Tomasek
Lazar-Roslovic
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Regula
Kulak-Emberson
Walman (IR)-Stecher
Pickard
Skinner
—————-
As expected from recent practices.
lets go!
Sorry to be the broken record but I hate 97 and 29 together 5×5.
It works against finding out who can actually play together. Keep the backbone stable and try out all sorts of winger combinations. Obviously I am missing something.
It’s a temporary thing.
Why can’t we have both in the NHL indefinitely?
I mean, currently the roster includes the likes of Janmark, Kapanen and Lazar. I have a bit more time for Kapanen but two of these guys are over-capped and the other is replacement level.
Don’t get me wrong, if Howard looks like he could really use and benefit from AHL time, and that may be the case, sure, assign the young man but that’s the only reason why I would.
All three vets clear, almost for sure. Even if one, or two, is lost – this team has a TON of forward depth. None of those vets are locked down defensively or so good on the PK that they can’t be moved on from.
No, I don’t inlcude Henrique as (a) his NMC and desire to stay and (b) well, he’s better than the other three (I understand the cap hit but removing Henrique makes the team worse, I don’t know if that’s the case with the other three).
Removing Henrique does not make the team worse, other then his initial post trade bump he’s been the definition of replacement level player.
His contract with Skinners is 5.6mil, that can land Bowman a quality starter.
That would make the team much better, offload Janmark while you’re at it and suddenly you’re at 7 million, which would most definitely supply Bowman with the cap space to solidify the tending.
The Oilers running McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Philp up the middle with a solidified goaltender makes the team much more complete then keeping a guy because he likes playing here and you don’t want to hurt the feels.
That obviously raises the question….which quality starter is available and at what price?
Pickard won the net away from Stu Skinner late last season, won it again two games into the playoffs, and will be the organization’s #1 by Halloween.
Picks should be getting 2/3 of the starts. Skinner has been given an awful lot of rope but hopefully that ends soon.
It could very well happen. Question I don’t know the answer to, why did the org try Stolarz for 6 games where he did not perform well (.897 SP) and then get rid of him, but Skinner gets endless rope? His career .918 looks much better than what is here.
I was talking to a friend of mine that’s a huge Leafs fan and I joked that it would be great to have a goalie like Stolarz 😏
I’d alternate goaltenders like Washington did last year. Its a new season, eventually it will become clear who should be replaced with Ingram.
How well does this analysis stack up in terms of QoC?
Don’t sit the kids in favour of Roslovic. Put Henri in the press box before you send the kids down. (If money allows).
Can Henri be sent down?
Unfortunately not, Henrique has a NMC. It’s either press box and counting against the cap or trade. He controls his own fate by how he plays or if he gets moved.
I’m now including beach sand with every southern California postcard I’m sending to Henrique.
The blunder by Skinner is a preseason mistake. Pickard is the right move play him until he loses. Pickard looked sharper all preseason and we need these points. Skinner is not the only one in a personally vital contract year as Pickard is also looking to stay in the NHL. If Pickard can get on a roll he might land himself a 2 year deal with the mighty Oiler sometime in the New Year.
The Oilers better have their big boy pants on tonight, the team has a lot of depth with more to come in November, if you can’t deliver what is expected, enjoy the PB or the AHL. No f’in around this season. There are expectations and those who do not live up to them are out.
Vancouver looks mid season form especially with Demko in net.
A goalie playing well adds a problem for sure. But there are things you do to make it hard on them. I don’t see that the Oilers are good at doing those things consistently
They often play into the strengths of the goalie. Not screening enough (or at all), not creating seam plays that get the goalie moving and lowers everyone’s SV%. They also won’t shoot high enough, and it’s low percentage trying to beat most goalies low if they’re playing well these days, especially Bob who owns the bottom net
When we play the Panthers they are playing to cause problems especially for Stu. Traffic and going upstairs where he often struggles. When they lost to the Knights Marssechault explained their tactics in surprising detail, and they executed it. Get the big guy moving, and how they broke the D system down which caused the goalies problems
I hope to see the coaches getting them to do those things consistently. It’s meat and potato, but it works when the ice isn’t open, or the goalie is hot. It’s what champions do. A good arrow is them using a bumper on PP, changes the look up, and has someone in the slot all of the time, meaning there’s 3 forwards close to the net, not 2
Its impossible to cut Savoie from the NHL roster, is it no? I mean with Curtis Lazar (let along Kapanen) on the roster……..
Don’t see Howard being moved off before Lazar, Janmark (when available to be waived), Kap.
Lazar cannot be on the roster before either of these kids – unless/until one looks overwhelmed and being stunted (impossible to imagine that happens with Savoie).
The Oilers are so deep at forward the waiver risk on the likes of Lazar, Kap or Janmark is a non-issue (and all three probably clear easily, the latter two being over-capped, the last, with term).
Knoblauch has options he is sifting through. Savoie played 9:55 at five-on-five (only Tomasek played less), 16 seconds on the power play and two minutes on the PK. One game sample isn’t anything really, but the five-on-five minutes could go to Roslovic and Janmark (if he returns) could gobble up the PK minutes.
The second-line role Savoie currently occupies was NOT the plan exiting camp. Putting Roslovic in that spot is a risk averse move, and this is a rise averse coach.
This is all true, and I get it but any roster, let along lineup, that has any of Janmark, Lazar or Kap on it before Savoie is, well, “wrong”, in my opinion.
I’m not sure there is any game state, zone, circumstance, etc. where Janmark is better than Savoie – he’s a PK guy but not a great PK guy. He’s a defensive guy but not a great defensive guy. Etc..
I think Lazar is getting underrated for how much unique value he brings – a cheap R shot C who is fast and responsible defensively. His min salary could be huge when it comes to playoffs salary cap.
Kapanen and Janmark’s skills are very much duplicated on the roster and their cap hit could be problematic when it comes to fitting them in under the playoffs cap.
With all that said, I wouldn’t have signed Roslovic and given all that opportunity to Howard, Savoie, and Tomasek
Does Philp not duplicate Lazar’s skills – while being bigger, faster, younger, etc.?
Lazar isn’t that good on faceoffs – just over 51% last season and below 50% the prior two seasons.
Lazar hasn’t averaged over 90 seconds on the PK a game for like 6 years and the last 4 years he was about 1 min game on the PK. That’s a depth PK role.
You’re absolutely right. I should clarify that Lazar provides unique depth as there is no other defensive minded R shot center other than Philp and that this depth makes league minimum. Whereas there are many players who duplicate what positive attributes Janmark and Kapanen bring while costing $0.5 million more than Lazar which could be a big deal come playoffs
I think in fairness to a guy that you sign in free agency like Lazar, you owe him a game or two prior to waiving him. Ya you may end with the same result. But he needs a chance in an actual game to show.
The waived and sent down Janmark a few years ago before he played a game….
Savoie kills penalties I think it’ll be Philp-Lazar-Janmar-Kap getting the green weenie. Bowman in Chicago always had 4 lines that had skill and were a threat to score. Even though Savoie and Howard are on the smaller side I think Bowman wants them to gain experience at the NHL level and see what he has in them. Of course a 4 game losing streak may change the plan rather quickly.
Then why did he sign Roslovic?
Butter and salt up the popcorn because we are going to find out. I think people around these parts are still used to “The Holland Way” those days are over go back and look at “The Chicago Blueprint” It’s going to make for interesting times as McDavid has given Stan 3 years to turn these team into not only a good team but juggernaut that should of happened on Holland’s watch.
It looks like Roslovic will block Howard IMO. After all it’s Howard first pro season whether he’s in the AHL or NHL shouldn’t matter, he will gain valuable experience and see more ice time in the AHL.
That is more likely (even taking in to account handedness).
I don’t think Savoie should be in this conversation.
I’m uncertain if I’m more excited for the Condors season opener this afternoon or the Oilers first win of the season later tonight…..
I’m hoping to see Nathanial Day get the net but have a feeling they go with Tompkins.
I believe the top lines will be:
Hutson/Marjala/Griffith
Jones/Samanski/Rh. Pitlick
That would leave Jarventie to play with Hamblin
I believe both Millman and Prokop are in as Carfagna and Akey are still injured.
Prospectopoly!
A quintet of NAmateurs will do the hockey this day.
Michigan has risen three spots to #9 in
Casey Kasem’s Top 40the NCAA rankings. They won again last night but Park and Barnett were held soupless. They get a chance to redeem themselves tonight.It didn’t take long for a prospect-vs.-prospect clash to occur as Lew and Laf (formerly a Balkan klezmer duo) oppose each other for the only time this regular season. The Blazers are on their biannual trek through the East division.
Fischer, who procured a PP goal anoche, rounds out the sched.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 4 p.m.
Michigan (Park, Barnett) @ 5 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 7 p.m.
Kamloops (Lafreniere) @ 7 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Legend time.
A good time to post this item from Casey Kasem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rV7WF5VVwuo
Ha…first time hearing this. That is awesome. Thanks for sharing.
Victory+ streaming:
Kamloops @ Saskatoon 6:45PM