The Edmonton Oilers play at MSG tonight that is 2-2-0 and finding out about itself. These Oilers are entering Game 3, and it’s the first road game of the season. Will the lines and pairings stay the same? Will Connor McDavid continue to play 40 percent of all minutes? What about Trent Frederic? Is he going to continue on the top line? Many questions for Manhattan to answer on an October evening.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- On the road to: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1)
- At home to: Montreal (1-0)
- On the road to: Seattle, Vanouver (1-1)
- At home to: Mammoth, Rangers (1-0-1)
- Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- Actual Record: 1-0-1, three points in two games
The overall feel of this team is more controlled than the chaos of the past two seasons. After two games in 2023-24, the Oilers were 0-2-0, the goal share was 4-12 (25 percent) and the save percentage was 75. In 2024-25, the Oilers were 0-2-0, the goal share 2-11 (15 percent) and the save percentage .754.
So far this season, it’s 1-0-1, the goal share is 6-4 and the save percentage is .892. The Oilers haven’t dug a hole through two games, and this road trip contains some opportunity.
I wrote about a few things we’re seeing at The Athletic (here) and will talk about it on the Lowdown today. I’m slightly encouraged by this team, and hope the coaching staff stays the course with players like David Tomasek, Noah Philp, Matt Savoie, Ike Howard and Alec Regula. If Howard gets sent out because Jack Roslovic, Jake Walman or Zach Hyman are back on the roster, that’s roster management and you like with it. However, while he’s here, Kris Knoblauch should play him. I’m impressed with how the coach is handling the new players.
I’d like to see McDavid and Draisaitl center different lines, and Philp stay in the middle. If Henrique is center on the fourth line, that would mean Nuge could play with McDavid and maybe the team could run Matt Savoie or David Tomasek on that unit. Leon could run with Andrew Mangiiapane and Vasily Podkolzin and maybe Ike Howard could get a spin there.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll have feature guests Rachel Doerrie (12:30), Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic (1:20) and Jason Gregor. Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
A Canadian Pro Hockey League
The notion was brought up the other day about a Canadian Pro League as an equivalent to the Swiss, Swedish, or Finnish leagues.
I can imagine a league with say 12 teams, operating in the next-to-largest cities. They’d have to operate out of arenas with 8,000 seats or above.
West: Victoria, Kelowna, Red Deer, and Saskatoon
Ontario: Hamilton, London, Kitchener, Oshawa, Mississauga
Quebec / Atl: Quebec City, Halifax, and Laval
I think you could make this work with late-in-career pro’s, ex-NHL tween’ers, top CIS players, and guys who’d rather raise their families in Saskatoon than in San Antonio.
Interesting idea. I think if this came to fruition some NHL teams could use these teams as a replacement for their AHL teams. However, it would probably mark the end of the CHL as we know it. With the current pressure on the CHL with the NCAA ruling, I don’t see how a diluted CHL could operate profitably in cities with one of these teams.
Cool idea!
Does this quote on 32 Thoughts from Judd Moldover infer that McDavid wanted to sign for an even less money?
“There’s certain permutations that I might have raised my hand (about) and said ‘Hey, 97, maybe not that much,’ perhaps, but ultimately, as a representative, you’re always striving to protect your client’s interests, you obviously want to push for guys to make as much money as they can…”
That quote is revealing, I think. Seems the union considerations were in play. Not sure what McD owes the union. Have they ever stood up for him?
I didn’t understand the Lazar signing in the summer and I still don’t understand it. Janmark and Henrique were already on the team and IMO Philp did enough last year to demonstrate that he’s capable of being a 4C in the NHL.
Count me in the group that doesn’t understand scratching Philp given his play so far, but let’s just hope it’s one game so that some other players can see some action.
Well said. I’ve tried to believe the Lazar signing was just providing a back up to bottom C, while punting the Janmark decision down the road. But it really feels unnecessary given what we’ve seen so far from the team & it’s C depth (there’s still Hamblin on the farm too).
I concur. When Lazar signed, I thought well Philp is going to have to earn it and he did. Disappointing scratch.
Bowman isn’t shy about adding depth. I am more surprised that the players signed. Bowman seems pretty transparent so I imagine the players knew the deal. Goes to show how much of a thing it is to be on the Oilers with the Duo these days
For sure, and I’ll never complain about having depth at the centre position. That said, as of July 1 the Oilers had McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Frederic, Henrique, Janmark, and Philp who can play in the middle.
Surely a replacement level player could have been acquired for league minimum during the season if reinforcements were required.
Shesterkin vs Skinner confirmed.
Neither had great years in 2024-25, though the focus will likely be on Sh SV% of .905 v Sk .896 (all states). The number that interests me more is Winning %, in large part because I see the position as one of 22 or 23, rather than one, alone. And, in the end, it’s the wins that matter.
In 2024-25, by Winning %:
Shesterkin 44%
Skinner 56%
It’s not a perfect metric, but I think it needs to be factored in (along with the growing number of numbers that still fail to capture what’s going on in and around the crease). Have at it!
An interesting backstory on the Rangers is Adam Fox vowing to make the U.S.Olympics team.
He has needs to recover from a very meh performance last season, especially in the 4 Nations Cup, and so far so good with 3 goals and 4 points in 4 games.
His new coach In NY is Mike Sullivan who of course, will also be behind the bench in Milan.
“Sullivan called Fox an elite power-play quarterback, but Quinn Hughes will probably play that role at the Olympics, potentially with fellow 2024-25 Norris finalist Zach Werenski as the defenseman on the second unit. Jaccob Slavin and Brock Faber formed a standout shutdown pairing at 4 Nations. Those four, as well as Charlie McAvoy, feel like locks to make the team if healthy.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6342579/2025/05/09/mike-sullivan-adam-fox-relationship-rangers-olympics/
Jammark – hopefully by the weekend.
Regula – hopefully sometime during this trip (weekend or next week)
Walman – hopefully next game
————
They’ve been saying “next game” with Walman for a while.
I suspect, when he’s activated, they put Regula on IR (retro to Sunday will mean he’s available for the following Tuesday).
Regula and Walman sure do seem to have the injury bug. Have we yet too see a healthy Walman for more than a few games since the trade?
Regula was run headfirst into the boards. Shortly after, took a legit but heavy hit that also seemed to rattle his brain. Removed by concussion spotter. “Targeted by Kane” is hardly part of being injury prone.
re: Skinner
— was encouraged by the picks start.
— am discouraged by this apparent skinner start
— although to be fair they likely plotted out the first number of starts and told both goalies so they can prepare accordingly
— let’s this happens after say game 15 where skinner disappoints and pickers does fine then they go back to skinner : that not so much.
— it’s a must play well game for skinner though which is good
Waiting 15 games is far too long.
These guys watching for the team get paid to know way sooner than that.
— we don’t know how many games until they deviate from what was planned.
— but it’s not one start.
— assuming they have plotted this out : if skinner brings his B+ game he’s still the starter
— he’d have to really stink (which he didn’t game 1) for them to deviate so soon IMO
— They are on an every other night game for the next 10 games so it will be interesting to see deployment. Be like 7-3/6-4 starts?…
If KK is going to run McDrai for another game, then they had better get the 5v5 scoring going. It is not like the Oilers have played a powerhouse team in either the Flames or Canucks. The 1st line had great stats with the exception of the one that matters at 5v5. Also, would not hurt if the PP got some results.
After tonight’s game, I would like to see the following forward lines:
RNH – 97 – Mangiapane
Pods – 29 – Savoie
Frederic – Philp – Roslovic
Howard – Henrique – Tomasek
— a lot rides on what hyman looks like
— I’ve slotted him into the “he’s done” bucket
— 2024 version Hyman does decidedly change things.
The strongest version of the Oilers would be McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, and Philp all centering their own lines.
And Frederic, Roslovic, Henrique, Tomasek & Savoie all can play center along with Kapanen & Janmark. How’s that for center depth?
The coach just can’t help himself, can he?
It is as if no original thought or analysis comes into the deployment conversation.
Sits Philp because Frederic moves even though Philp’s been nowhere near the worst forward.
Wrong goalie. Because of course the wrong goalie.
The first game of a 5 game condensed road trip usually is the biggest as it can snowball either way. Why not start the sharper Pickard and bank the points instead of starting like we did in the hole the last 2 years. I get Skinner is the hometown boy and he makes for a lovely story. I know Pickard is never going to be nothing but a back-up at best yet he does nothing but win in front of this group.
Thought the crew here may be interested,
the late great Joey Moss was mentioned on the worlds largest live podcast Kill tony last night! By a comedian repping a oiler hat.
The panel obviously had no idea but the comedian Danny Martinello referenced Joey as one of his inspirations and people he looked up to.
Was nice to see the oil and Joey get their flowers on a massive stage!
If you watch one thing related to the Austin comedy scene make it this one: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ewvRS3NwIlQ
The comedy scene is what it is, your opinion or my opinion on that is irrelevant to what i was sharing imho.
The point was that millions of people who had never heard of joeys story got to hear about a local hero he was and maybe some of those people will look into Joey and what a difference he made in this community.
If the viewers of “Kill Tony” learn more about wonderful story of Joey Moss, I would hope that they also conclude that they should quit watching “Kill Tony”.
This video is beautiful & groundbreaking work! All should watch.
Agreed. It clearly demonstrates how “it” is certainly not “what it is.” Amateur, indeed, but vital for anyone concerned about the state of culture in North America today.
If I put these 5v5 GF% numbers up for the panthers, as Daily Faceoff has the line combos:
Verhaeghe 1-4 Bennett 0-7 Marchand 3-5
Loust 1-2 Lundell 1-1 Reinhart 1-2
Samosk 2-1 Rodrigues 3-0 Boqvist 1-0
Greer 2-1 Kunin 2-1 Gad 1-0
One wouldn’t see tied for 2nd in the league would one. The Oilers:
29- 0/0 97- 1/0 10- 1/0
88- 1/1 93- 0/0 22- 0/0
53- 0/0 19- 0/0 86- 0/0
92- 1/2 48-1/3 42-1/3
Boy they could use some 5v5 scoring from the top guys. At least they’re holding water. I can see why Philp gets a game to watch, that line looked good, but bled
Florida has played twice as many games so far this season.
Yes, and their goal share remains sucky. Which is excellent
Our Oilers doing far better that way, just need to stretch the twine a bit more
The forward group is starting to look like the old Hawks in structure. Three lines with skill, and a heavy line with pace and some skill
It will be interesting to see how this fares against teams that have thug 4th lines like the panthers. Those lines usually don’t play that much of course
Panthers are the Bruins/Kings of the early 10’s. Oil are the Hawks of that era.
I always cheered for the Hawks cause I didn’t want clutch grab hockey to reign supreme and become the norm.
The Panthers are just another iteration of that.
For sure, I liked the Hawks as well. A lot to do with that I loved Duncan Keith’s game. Also Byf demoralizing the Canucks
It would seem Stan thinks that’s the way this time as well
Yes it is the Hawks were a factory of big skilled heavy forwards that were a threat to score. I would not be surprised if one of Howard or Savoie is not traded by the end of next year as having 2 smaller forwards in top 9 doesn’t exactly fit the Hawk blueprint. If Savoie and Howard score 20 they will have great value especially on their low wages. With all the no trade clauses these 2 may be our most valuable trading chips when it comes to landing whatever we lack in.
Scratching Philp for Henrique is criminal, he scored the only 5×5 goal last game. Nonce behavior coach.
I can understand a coach wanting a veteran centre with 2 rookies
European Penner is near 30, Henrique has been thoroughly outplayed by Philp.
Frederic is good defensively, he can easily fill that role.
Not saying I agree with the decision, just saying that I can understand it.
Regardless of Tomasek’s age, he’s only played 2 NHL games
I put GF% above. I am on the Philp RS C train, but he’s under water, as was his line. He’s still a rookie, and I am confident he can get there
KK has been tasked with bringing along so many new players, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on how he deploys his roster through the first half of the season. Loading Drai and McDavid makes sense in that it gives KK a clearer view of each players’ actual ability and style of play (i.e. less room to be a passenger and more demands that they help push the play), while also creating a dominant line that can buffer some of the chaos and help us win games even if the wheels fall off the rest of the roster. I hold out hope that by the end of the year, we’ll see slightly more traditional balancing of the lineup, especially once everyone is back and healthy. In the mean time, you’ve got to sort out where all of Mangiapane, Howard, Savoie, Tomasek, Podz, Kapanen, Philp and now Roslovic are all going to play. Blend away, I say.
Continuing to win, or at least playing in a way that predicts we SHOULD win, will be key to continuing with the experimenting. If we start losing games in bunches, I think we’ll see a more typical lineup
Yup. Early days. Lots to sort. No reason to panic.
But those who like to, will.
FYI: Broberg had one of those Bouchard tape-to-tape passes from behind his goal line to a forward in flight on the other side of centre ice (Kyrou) last night in Vancouver.
Video:
https://nhl.com/video/stl-van-schenn-scores-goal-against-kevin-lankinen-6382707171112
Who?
I ‘was’ a Bro booster, but I will still wait to see what he does in playoffs to decide what he is, if they get there
He has all of the tools, but his game, at least when he made like Hussein, was not well rounded
Both he and DH also have to establish some durability
Cannot agree with Philp out but it is what it is.
Mangiapane has looked good in brief shifts up on the top line.
Will Walman every play – this injury thing has been his entire career.
I presume Regula is not feeling 100% from the head shot?
Per Stauff:
Yeah I don’t love sitting Philp. But I do get wanting Fredrick to pay centre. I’d rather have Fredrick with Henrique and one of Tomasek/Howard, and keep that Phil line as the 4th line.
Side note, when do they dal Janmark or someone else? Or are we heading towards Tomasek and Howard in Minors.
When Walman or Janmark are activated someone will have to go – its got to be Lazar for me and I personally think that Janmark should be next in line.
Edit: Sounds like Regula could be out through the weekend so they probably just put him on IR to activate someone.
It looks like a pre-season lineup. This can’t be the game time MSG lineup they plan to use against the Ranger. I’m in disbelief.
Roslovic in over Philp and you are in disbelief regarding the overall lineup?
Stecher in for Regula is due to injury.
This is Par for the course not every Oiler fan is going to agree with every move management makes.
That’s precious.
Any more on Regula?
ps. That first headshot from behind and into the boards that he took from Kane should be suspension-worthy, IMO.
I didn’t like seeing Regula get punted into the boards like that, but Kane was coming and Regula stopped before the boards, which is putting himself in danger.
He needs to absorb that hit on the boards.
Philp looks like a HS and I don’t think that would have been my move.
This runs completely counter to on ice results in the first games.
That’s too bad. Someone had to come out, but knowing what we have in Philp seems like one of the bigger questions to sort out this season. He has been looking great through two games.
If the team is sitting a young guy for Roslovic, Howard is the better choice. I won’t get too exercised about it, but Philp has done nothing but play great since the start of preseason.
Via DNB, Regula not on the ice
Oilers lines and pairings at morning skate at NYR:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Mangiapane
Savoie-RNH-Roslovic
Podkolzin-Frederic-Kapanen
Howard-Henrique-Tomasek
Philp, Lazar, Janmark (IR)
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Stecher
Kulak-Emberson
Walman (IR)
I’m shocked. Those lines look like a witches brew.
We’re probably going to be surprised from time to time with the lineup. KK likes the blender.
One thing not lost on me looking at that roster: There’s 600 lbs of man on that third line.
Well, Frederic is off the No. 1 line!
I see they’re rewarding Mangiapane that’s fine. BUT….. Frederic misplacing Philp on that third line is shameful. I don’t get it, can’t be happening.
Per Stauffer:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Mangiapane
Savoie-RNH-Roslovic
Podkolzin-Frederic-Kapanen
Howard-Henrique-Tomasek
Extras: Janmark (IR), Philp, Lazar
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Stecher
Kulak-Emberson
Walman (IR)
Skinner
Pickard
https://x.com/bob_stauffer/status/1978119195414933782?s=46
Don’t like that Philp is an extra.
Knoblauch must be messing with us.
I’d be ok with.
Leon-McDavid-Mangiapane
Frederic-Nuge-Roslovic
Podz-Philp-Savoie
Kapanen-Henrique-Tomasek
Too bad Regula is out but nice to see Stech.
I might even throw Tomasek with Podz & Philp & slide Savoie down with Kapanen & Rico.
Yeah, Pod/Philip/Kapanen was a surprisingly successful line.
Howard staying in is curious.
Shocking. I’m hoping we see something completely different at game time.
I thoroughly enjoyed PPK!
Curious about what comes next. To my eye, many (many) possibilities to sort through in the early months.
I think there are very few that would not like to see McDavid and Drai on different lines or, at the very least, see Frederic moved down for a replacement on their wing.
At the same time, I think we have to acknowledge how dominant the Oilers have been at 5 on 5 this season. Of course, they haven’t scored as much as they should but Wolf and Demko factor in there but they have given up very little and their expected goal share is near top of league through two games – the four lines have bought in to and are playing the structure the coach is putting out.
With that said, that doesn’t mean deployment is optional.
I’m not thinking much about deployment so far, I imagine they are evaluating and trying to get the balance they want to have the guys playing the system as they want
They have played well, I still would like to see them close the gap on expected goals. Yes the enemy goalies have been good, but you have to get good at beating good goalies. To win Cups, you can’t let anything stand in the way
There are ways to get goals when it’s tough, you just have to do those things. More rush goals, as has been stated as what the coaches want, is great. But when it’s not happening, old school basic hockey is the way
I think Knoblauch wants to see if the pair of Podkolzin and Philp can anchor a quality NHL 3rd line. His roster construction may be starting from there.
The problem with that is then one has to find two wingers for Draisaitl instead of one.
I dunno? Leon kinda likes playing with Podz. Once Hyman returns we shall see.
This did not age well! -).
Doesn’t seem to be the case.
They want to see what Roslovic can bring to the team. Who knows Roslovic may even be gone at the end of the month so they’ll definitely want to take a close look. Young Ike having a look at some games from the press box, most likely with a coach sitting beside him, wouldn’t hurt.
They’re taking the show on the road WOOHOO!!!
Roslovic in top 6 white this morning.
Who comes out Kap or Howard. This coaching staff seems to really like Kap.
They will need to roster if Walman is playing. I don’t know if he is.
I’m not sure they want to break up the Podz-Philp-Kapanen combo.
I’d be shocked if they did.
Daaaaa RANGERS LOSE!
I’m going to be so glad when they throw 100 under that moron’s chin a bunch next season. He deserves it.