One of the things I love about sports is its ability to surprise and delight. We all know what has happened, and it does inform the future, but not fully, not completely. Last night, the Oilers marched in to Madison Square Garden and won the game despite a 37 percent expected goal share. Natural Stat Trick had the Oilers scoring twice (true) and allowing 3.42 goals (untrue).
The defense was shoddy (it’s a good defense) and the forwards were uneven. The star of the game was Stuart Skinner, who today sports a save percentage of .942 overall. He is at .939 five-on-five, the number I prefer. He wasn’t the best goaltender in the game, Igor Shesterkin has a five-on-five save percentage of .967 so far this year.
It may be a fleeting moment in a career (Skinner) that began with promise and has gone downbeat the last two seasons. Or, it might be a corner turned. It’s what is best about sports, always teasing the next chapter. For today, it’s a feelgood moment for those who have supported Skinner, and a slightly raised eyebrow for those who have questioned him. I doubt many Oilers fans feel anything but good about Skinner’s game last night, come what may.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- On the road to: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: Montreal (1-0)
- On the road to: Seattle, Vanouver (1-1)
- At home to: Mammoth, Rangers (1-0-1)
- Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
- Actual Record: 2-0-1, five points in three gmes
The Oilers started 1-3-0 in the two previous seasons, so this is better. After three games last year, Calvin Pickard owned a .913 save percentage, Skinner .806 (both numbers five-on-five). Skinner’s performances have not been consistent, and that’s for sure. Connor Ingram could be the starting goalie in this town by Christmas, or there could be a trade at the deadline. Today, for Skinner and Oilers fans, it’s a morning just like the one Joni Mitchell described in Chelsea Morning. Oh, won’t you stay? We’ll put on the day. And we’ll talk in present tenses.
Mangiapane-McDavid-Draisaitl played 8:25 together, 5-2 shots but just 19 percent expected goals. The trio didn’t get much done due to the suffocating work by JT Miller’s ensemble. Knoblauch checked down to Mangiapane-McDavid-Tomasek, and that unit went 4-0 shots in 3:18 with two high danger chances. Expected goals? 100 percent. Music! Draisaitl moved to a line with Nuge and Jack Roslovic, that unit went 1-2 shots in 4:49 with a 1-1 HDSC and a 53 percent expected share. I wonder if they’ll move Podkolzin to the Draisaitl line soon.
Trent Frederic centered Podkolzin’s line with Kasperi Kapanen on the other wing. The unit went 2-5 shots, 39 percent expected goals and 0-3 HDSC’s and those aren’t swell numbers. However, Frederic scored the only goal needed on the night after a nifty pass from Kapanen. Frederic’s goal wasn’t counted as a HDSC, suspect that’s a flaw in the model. No matter, good to see Frederic score a goal and a much needed five-on-five goal, too.
Savoie-Nuge-Roslovic played 5:48 and were 0-1 shots. Three smaller players on the same line last worked when Doug, Max and Reg Bentley came out of Delisle, Saskatchewan to suit up for the New York Rangers.
Howard-Henrique-Tomasek played 4:45, 2-1 shots and 43 percent expected goals. Howard played just 7:30 and one wonders if Bakersfield is in the future. Tomasek has eight HDSC’s, and seven of those on the power play. He dusts the puck off a little too much, need to hammer that thing. He’ll get there.
I thought the defense was a little all over on the night. Misreads married miscues and the entire project landed in the ditch. Here are the five-on-five numbers:
- Ekholm-Bouchard: 15:39, 8-3 shots, 65 percent expected goals, 2-2 HDSC
- Nurse-Stecher: 14:30, 4-8 shots, 33 percent expected goals, 1-3 HDSC
- Kulak-Emberson: 13:36, 4-6 shots, 1-0 goals, 24 percent expected goals 0-4 HDSC
The top pair remains golden, but the Nurse-Stecher pair had problems and the Kulak-Emberson duo did, too. It’s one game, but there are players returning, and Jake Walman might be ready for Game 4. I’d run Nurse-Walman and Kulak-Regula when everyone is back, that probably means Stecher on waivers or a trade. Emberson isn’t exactly killing the blues, either. One can’t lose sight of the fact this is a damn good group, though, and keeping all eight is an option (the team would need to run with 12-13 forwards).
On the Lowdown today, Kevin McCurdy will be the feature guest at 1pm, and it’ll be the ‘Christian versus the Lions’ roundtable as I lose complete control of the show. Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson, Josh Fenwick and Sam Willness are the suspects, I’m the zebra being chased by the pack of hyenas. It’s just nature’s way, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
New for @TheAthleticNHL Is Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch embracing youth in early going?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6716354/2025/10/15/edmonton-oilers-rookies-coach-stats-2025/
Coach says Walman won’t play tomorrow and is now expected to play on the weekend.
Does anyone actually believe the second part of that? I mean, maybe he plays but this coach’s verbal on injury timelines is now meaningless, right?
Forward lines today:
Mangiapane-McDavid-Tomasek
RNH-Draisaitl-Roslovic
Podkolzin-Frederic-Kapanen
Howard-Henrique-Savoie
As per Edmonton Journal
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-david-tomasek-connor-mcdavidbig-new-forward-bumped-up-to-mcdavid-line
I can live with that. Philp playing every other game in the Henrique 4C spot would make me even happier.
I don’t disagree but I don’t see them taking Rico out any time – PK being the main reason.
Kap playing so well early is really effing things up – lol
No chance Janmark makes the lineup when healthy, right?
Imagine if no-one else is hurt by the time Hyman is healthy.
So deep!
Its trending this way and that is 100% fine – it doesn’t mean this player can’t or won’t be the player that he expect/hope he can be on the day of the trade – it just will take some time.
This is also a function of how deep this team is at forward – the lineup last night had Zack Hyman and Mattias Janmark out hurt and Noah Philp, coming off an excellent game (and start to the season) couldn’t even make the roster, let alone Lazar.
2 of Howard, Tomask, Janmark, Lazar and Kap will need to be moved off the roster if they get heathy – maybe 3.
This decision is too easy and its probably the right one – in time.
Not yet, the Condors hardly play (they played last Sat and then not again until 2 this weekend and then the following weekend).
I want Howard on this 5-game road trip with the boys!
Nathan Day has been assigned to the comments as Ingram is ready to play this coming weekend. That’s news as, from listening to Gretz last week, it sounded like a big maybe for this coming weekend and more than likely the following weekend.
Three straight shutout losses at home for the Rangers. Perhaps they’ll finally start complaining about playing on slop for ice and have something done about it. Doesn’t seem to matter when others do.
The Oilers can easily fold half of Alex Tuch’s $4.75M onto their payroll later this season.
Can they afford to pay him $9M+ starting next season?
Good, but not near good enough to pay that price.
They absolutely can. But I wouldn’t
His full $9M would count in the playoffs
Stetcher is a game rooster, but he can’t play at the level expected. I definitely like Regula better, but with Kulak on the third pair. I’m not really crazy about Emberson either, but if one of the 2 is our #7, I’m good with that.
I can’t take my eyes off of Tomasek every time he steps on the ice. His stature totally reminds me of Tage Thompson. For a guy who’s still adjusting to North America, he is definitely doing more than just holding his own.
Biggest positive of the season so far – Mattias Ekholm looks like Mattias EKholm.
Stetcher isnt a top 4 D-man, but he is good cover for the bottom pairing. Emberson doesn’t even seem to be replacement level, which is too bad. I had hoped he could take a step forward this year, but the game hasn’t seemed to slow down for him. It’d probably ve unpopular, but would the oilers consider sending emberson down? Regula and Stetcher hold down the fort with Walman as 2RD when he comes back? Or do others see more in Emberson than I’m seeing?
Great game by Stu. Great to see the coach separate McDavid and Drai later in the game.
I won’t shut up about it, but would like to see Drai and Pod on the line together again.
I suspect Drai would like to see that too. He is just effusive in his public praise of Podz. And that means that he’ll probably get what he wants eventually.
early days with coach trying to see how all his new toys fit. Suspect Podz ends up playing most of the season with who appears to be his new big brother. Love the way 29 has seemingly taken him under his wing.
I still can’t believe (well I can, because Vancouver) the Canucks traded him for a 4th and kept their smurfs instead
There is no doubt that Stu Skinner stole the game for the Oilers. Good for him, good for the team.
I didn’t like KK’s line-up and, for me, the game reflected that.
I like Troy Stecher…but last night it was not good, at all.
First game rust…
Great game by Stu….
Happy for Stu for getting the SO
Hope this is a sign of things to come
Oilers have not trailed this season.
Something for us, as fans, to get used to? No more final minute 6v5 adrenaline rushes? Oh my!
What’s really weird is the Rangers are 10-4 goals for on the road and have yet to score at home going 0-6 in three games.
Knob said the line changes was mostly about getting away from certain Ranger line matchups.
Better late than never…..
Skinner with a fantastic performance, he was dialed in. It’s was night and day from the first game, always at the ready and in position. Stick was down, feet were set, head on a swivel.
Absolutely loved to see the dedication to being in position, doing the small things over and over. Bring that game with you Skinner and you’ll have an outstanding season.
Stuart Skinner – Last 19 starts
10-7-1 .901 5 shutouts
13 of 19 games against Vegas, Dallas or Florida
10-7-1 =18 games?
Thanks for putting that up. That’s a nice trend
I’m still not so sure switching goalies in the finals would have brought Stanley home.
They lost games 5 & 6, a combined 10-3. Game 3 was 6-1. Maybe prime Hasek would have brought Stanley home.
Tremendous game by Stu Skinner, he definitely stole it. Knoblauch is still sorting out the puzzle pieces. I would think the picture is somewhat more clear. His team is certainly better than last nights performance, without doubt.
And the fact that we have actual NHL players sitting (as LT has said for decades, get good players, keep good players) is a great thing.
Howard and Tomasek will head to minors soon. Lots of PP and Pk time and lots of minutes to gain their confidence.
I look forward to seeing the lines take shape with 97 and 29 separated.
There is no way in hell that Tomasek is headed to the Bake.
Howard will surely be headed to the A.
With this depth, especially with Hyman coming back, I don’t know who sits. We could run three real scoring lines.
Hyman-McDavid-Roslovic
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Savoie
Mangiapane-Nuge-Tomasek
Henrique-Philp-Frederic
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic
Mangiapane-Frederic-Savoie
Henrique-Philp-Tomasek
I like the first one better.
I feel like we’re done with Nuge on 97’s wing – it’s fine, but no longer dynamic it seems
Not many times, over the last 2 seasons could we say the goalie stole us a game. But for sure Stu did last night. Huge win. Huge confidence booster for him.
Haters will hate, but games like this mean tons on the room. Knowing your goalie can steal a game makes everyone relax and play their game instead of feeling like you can’t let any shots through (a feeling I’m sure they have had in the past, and a reason why many backups see better defensive efforts by their team)
Had to make a run to the airport after work so missed most of the first. I thought it was a 5:30 start so was listening to Gregor who had Kevin Woodley on. His take on Skinner was that he was moving much better than last year and looks to have improved overall. He did call out Skinner’s brain fart on the 3rd Calgary goal but said that it is not a bid deal in the long run.
Woodley’s summary of this-years Skinner made me feel a lot better as I sat down to watch the game. And lo and behold Skinner comes out and pitches a shutout!
Way to go Stu. Please reduce the collective anxiety and make us all believers.
Good to hear Woodley’s take on Stu. I’m happy he played so well, but the trick is for all players, what percentage of games can they play well in? Especially for goalies, the team needs to trust that they will show up when the chips are down. All of the time
Great point. Our anxiety / belief in Skinner is really not relevant. What the players in the room believe is the paramount. Also, if the opposition players believe that Skinner is really solid in net, then they will be taking lower percentage shots (ie corners of the net) which should lead to even less goals scored against the Oilers.
i noted a few days ago that with losing 15 lbs, it may take Skinner a few games to really get comfortable at his new playing weight.
Full props to Stu for the nice shutout.
I sincerely hope that Stu will make me sound like a total idiot by continuing to perform like that!
Also I hope that a trip to Bakersfield is nigh for Ike Howard. Overall I think he’s looked solid, but I’d love to see him dominating with full ice-time down there.
Noah Philp needs to be a fixture in the lineup.
Prospecthenge!
Tommy Lafreniere and the Blazers’ Magical Mystery Tour lands in the Friendly City for a date with the Warring Types.
When we last checked in with Lafreniere, he was flying with two goals, including the OT winner. He has 4 + 1 in his seven Kamloops games.
Does he have another multi-goal effort in him this night? All will be revealed once the puck drops at 7 p.m. Legal time.
In addition to Victory+, tonight’s game will also be shown on TSN+. Check your local listings.
A second 👍🏼 up for “the magical mystery tour” reference. Brings back hazy memories from a bygone day.
You’re right LT, it’s one game, and on the road. I know it’s been discussed before, but by the (my) eye test it would be Emberson that would be in danger here. He has the higher ceiling for sure, but if a trade is imminent I think he would fetch a bigger return, which is probably a pick at this point. Skinner was excellent last night, good for him.
Agreed.
What do you mean when you say Emberson has a higher ceiling?
Emberson has 109 games played, well below the 200 games assessment mark. Regula has 24 and is making all kinds of mistakes too (keep your head up!).
Punting on these guys too early is the same mistake that was made with Kesselring.
Take the lumps that come with young D playing, developing them into quality players that serve the org in the 2nd & 3rd pairs, imo.
I think that a good coach and GM should be able to see young players potential. Of course there is the learning curve for young players, but there is also seeing that the player isn’t suited to the NHL well, or perhaps the team’s desired style. For example Howard isn’t doing much, but he’s also not getting outscored, I can see a path for him becoming a solid player as he gets used to the top league or develops more in the A
Hoping for outlier outcomes can waste a lot of time. Sure Forsling went through waivers and took time to round out his game, but I would hazard that his game was there early and that it wasn’t appreciated correctly
I see Emberson’s challenge is that he is not big, not a plus skater, and not a great puck mover. That’s a lot to overcome to be effective, and perhaps his solid San Jose stats were being driven by his partner. I could be wrong of course, but he is 25 now and it seems I’ve seen this show before. Kesselring and Regula have the significant advantage of being large guys that skate well. It makes it far easier to get the job done for them
The Oil had a number of great opportunities in the O-zone that were either blocked or overplayed – this skewed the stats IMO.
Not to forgive our d-pairings but the ice was dreadful and our team is built around quick recovery and outlet passes. There were many times a defender made the correct play only to have the puck bounce and end up on the wrong stick.
Kudos to Skinner
Could it be a tactic to slow down fast teams by having their ice-maker soften the ice… would that be a smart move?
Worked for Florida twice. Though I think it’s more geography than intention.
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You can never have enough D esp early in the season and I’d keep all 8.
That said, if you find Emberson a new home for a 3rd or 4th, you do it.
Watched the 8min recap last night and the jail breaks were damming.
Roslovic didn’t make the recap real. How was his game?
For one game, I thought he was very
verygood. Transitioned the puck north almost every time he had the puck, has great speed, made some nice pass attempts that didn’t work and was not out of sorts defensively. All in all, a very good game.Bowman and the coaches need to make the call on Emberson. He has struggled mostly since the trade, he’s 25 now
He doesn’t protect himself well, isn’t that quick and most seem to feel he’s not great at outlets. At 6’0 and 193, and Stecher being a game rooster but even smaller, I’d be looking to upgrade. Regula has earned the 3 RD slot, but has a history of injuries. They need a decent regular sized depth D or two I think, if they can find them. Also Walman has trouble staying healthy, last year was his most GP in a regular schedule, 65
It’s a rickety defence for sure, injury wise. Looking purely at cap, not sure an upgrade on the Stecher/Emberson roles is available. Though if any Oil GM of the past twenty years could do it, it’s probably this one.
That’s a good reason to keep 8D.
I agreed, a 2/3 RD is still required. Until Walman and Regula can stay healthy, they remain a concern.
Some say Emberson has a higher upside than Stetcher, but I’m not convinced of that.