I was listing to old songs I love last night, and got into Pere Ubu, The Band, Crazy Horse, the Modern Lovers, Uriah Heep and the Young Rascals. That’s a wild range of oldies, but I had a blast. This morning, I was looking at some numbers and noticed Jake Walman is 1-6-7 in nine games plus 11-7 goals at five-on-five this season. I started singing “Get Up, Jake it’s early in the morning” and that’s why the article has that title today.
I have some things rolling around in my brain that will eventually become articles, but want to note them.
Samuel Jonsson is off to a great start in the ECHL, including three shutouts. He SA-game are low, so I wonder if the Fort Wayne Komets just have a terrific team. I’m hopeful the Oilers move him up the chain at some point this season, but allowing him to diminate at that level is a fine idea. Meanwhile, Nathan Day, who didn’t ever get to .900SP in the OHL, is continuing his solid play in the ECHL. I want to know how good this Komets team is before giving both goalies gold stars. Fantastic results, though.
Connor McDavid has been the subject of much discussion this season, with many wondering where his scoring went. The playing time spike is also a curio. I wrote about it today at The Athletic and believe you’ll be pleased with what the numbers say.
Connor Clattenburg has a lot of fans, and I hope he makes it. It’s important to note progress along the way. I see him as a fourth-line energy player, so wondered about his scoring rates compared to previous physical energy wingers at age 20 in the AHL. Clattenburg (.22 pts-game) is in the range with Jujhar Khaira (.20) and ahead of Mitch Moroz (.14) but it’s early days.
Remember, the point is always to let these players tell us who they are. Right now we can call Clattenburg a fringe prospect, but if he can score some goals this season, maybe he lands higher. He has good hands, can scoot and is getting playing time. Whatever you feel toward Colin Chaulk, he is playing this young man in an effort to find out about him.
Someone asked in the comments about Matt Savoie’s lack of five-on-five scoring, and I agree it’s a concern. That’s why it’s a good idea to play a skilled younger player with skill when he arrives. Savoie has 72 minutes with Adam Henrique without posting a point, while Henrique has 2.38 pts-60 away from the youngster. Ike Howard has a goal in about 60 minutes with Henrique. I think Savoie is doing enough to warrant staying in the lineup, but he needs to break on through to the other side and I’m confident he hast the ability.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky is our feature guest, we’ll talk Team Canada Olympic threads, Oilers, and CFL playoffs. We’ll preview the NFL weekend and tee up what’s coming across the sports calendar this weekend. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Knights PK is lethal, 2nd in the league coming in – Condors kill off two in the last 10 minutes (and 4 in the game) and then D’Amato with the empty netter to seal it.
Great defensive 3rd period – great win.
As always, appreciate the updates!
I continue to see a ton of Ryan McLeod in the way Josh Samanski transitions the puck – strong through the neutral zone and with confidence. Not as fast as louder but plays a bit more on the inside. I don’t know if Samanski has 50 NHL point seasons in him but I do see legit 2-way 4C/3C potential. He’s killing penalties but that’s a work in progress.
Rem Pitlick with a nice rush, shoots from the slot, its blocked, Copponi BLASTS in to the gap and absolutely wires the loose puck in for his first pro goal.
3-2 Condors in the third.
Clattenburg with a fairly sizeable hit on Lavoie – he did come from all the way across the ice to throw it.
He’s been quiet today but he’s playing banged up (Upper Body sustained in practice yesterday).
No way our arch-enemy would of traded Spencer Knight to us but man that kid is a keeper.
Leppanen caught low in the offensive, fires a hope shot that gets turned around for a 3 on 1 – rebound is cashed and its 2-2.
Jarventie with a wonderful zone entry on PP2, a few passes and Dineen rips one off the bar.
Leppanen’s PP shot blocked for a 2 on 1 against and another solid rush defence play by Leppanen – long ways to go but he’s starting to make some defensive plays.
Its time for coach to take Griffith off PP1.
Condors defending for a while, a shot is blocked and the puck explodes out to center – Rhett Pitlick on his horse gets there first and rips one from the top of the circles as he’s angled off – his second of the night.
2-1 Condors.
I noticed the Condors game is being reffed by Ben Betker, an Oiler draft pick from 2013. Big d-man that bounced around Europe the last few years and obviously decided to give it up to try refereeing. Much like Jake Brenk, another one-time Oiler pick.
Maybe he’s added give the MPs 4-1 for the Knights….
Leppanen with a great play to back-track and thwart a Lavoie chance.
Unfortunately, for some reason, Stilman on the late chase ends up right beside Leppanen on the sideboards while the late man is all alone in front and Lavoie is able to get the puck to him.
1-1
Summarizing!
Lewandowski scored his 6th of the season and added an assist, both on the PP.
Park and Barnett each had a helper.
Wakely and Fischer did not enjoy wholesome soup.
Max Jones is an adventure.
Max Jones (who is a great AHL player) with a lazy play ragging the puck in his own end against two attackers – he gives it up – pressure ensures – Jones commits about three infractions (including a slew foot type check on the boards) and the cross-check is finally called.
The top line (Hutson/Samanski/Griffith) with a massive offensive zone shift finished with an even more massive hit by Stilman on the tired defender flipping out a zone exit.
A wonderful transition and rush by Copponi and what looked like a perfect set-up for Clattenburg net front off the rush but he’s unable to finish. Great rush!
Jarventie set ups Marjala in the slot – has lazer from the slot goes off the glass and bounces in front of the net – A Pitlick jams the crease and bangs in home for the 1-0 lead.
Jarventie scheduled to play both ends of the back to back this weekend.
That is a big step for this NHL ready player.
Hutson/Samamski/Griffith
Jarventie/Marjala/Rh Pitlick
Jones/Rem Pitlick/D’Amato
Clattenburg/Copponi/Keppen
Dineen/Brown
Stilman/Leppanen
Carfagna/Prokop
Tompkins
Thank you please keep us updated.
Clattenburg is in.
Hutson-Samanski-Griffith (AHL)
Jarventie-Marjala-Rhett Pitlick (AHL)
Jones-Rhett Pitlick (AHL)-D’Amato (AHL)
Clattenburg-Copponi (AHL)-Keppen (AHL)
six of 12 are AHL contracts. I must say the Pitlicks play like they are on NHL deals .
Dineen-Brown
Stillman-Leppanen
Carfagna-Prokop (AHL)
Tomkins in goal.
The Pitlicks seem to be good mentors for the Kids.
Rhett is only 24 and just finished college.
Rem, yup.
24 is old to a 20 year-old or do you forget being young.
I don’t care if becomes a Hasek or a bum but Wallstedt was there on a platter with a bow on it. Why did Holland pass him up? It makes no sense it’s funny it’s taboo in Oiler land to play 22 year-old rookies yet Billy knows playing Wallstedt at 22 could translate into a boon for the Wild.
He has a 3.45GAA and an .863 SP for the Minnesota Wild in three games this season. Still only 22.
and this is after a severe regression year in the AHL last year.
He was gifted the NHL back-up spot – he didn’t earn it with play.
At this point, I’m not positive Jarventie isn’t more NHL ready (knees aside).
———-
As far as passing on Wallstedt, from what I’ve heard/read, they would have taken Cossa but didn’t have interest in Wallstedt – must have been something in their scouting or pre-draft diligence that they didn’t like – maybe they were right?
Now do the player they drafted instead.
I did the player they traded for and is in the org as a result of that draft spot.
You don’t pass on a potential franchise Goalie. What do you think his value is right now? What will his value be if he significantly starts improving? Guerin most of been laughing when Holland passed him up. I would love to hear Guerin’s true thoughts on this having 3-4 Guinness together.
The org didn’t see him as a potential franchise goalie – at this point, they are looking right.
Wyatt Johnston was the pick the Oilers missed.
Sure, but that’s not the conversation being had and the postser’s initial point was solely about Wallstedt and “passing on potential franchise goalies”.
That cost some folks an Oilers’ job
The Ducks have scored 9 more goals in 2 less games than the mighty Oilers. Verbeek has built a exciting team from the ashes up. I wonder how many goals the Iceman would have already 6-7 with the Ducks. If we had Carlsson what’s his numbers running 4th line with limited minutes 2G 2A if he’s lucky. K. K is way to system conservative it’s time to let the Oilers run wild no more babying our Goalies let’s see if the new and improved Skinner can make some Dostal like saves.
September Oilers: Ok boys. I know we’re hurting. Let’s really focus on turning that power play back up to historic, cause 5×5 is where the body gets abused. We should be able to cruise and enter the playoffs rested as best as possible. So long as we aren’t gifting goals left and right lol right? Hahah.
fan fiction
Apparently some tension at practice today between Walman and Frederic after Freddie tosses Walman down during a drill.
Nothing crazy from accounts. Good to hear about the emotion
It’s time for some angry Hockey nice to see Frederic with a heartbeat. Walman as we seen in the Playoffs is a gamer and can be a welcomed shit disturber. These 2 are going to be teamsters for the next half-dozen years they’re both part of the Core. .
In the words of Coach Chaulk today as it relates to Clattenburg: “we are trying to get him to learn to play hockey”.
Talked about his great heart and leadership and physicality and all of that and how amazing it is but also mentioned the the is a good skater and he does have good visrion and he does have soft hands but he needs to play hockey.
Hes also a game time decision for tonight as he sustained an upper body injury in practice yesterday.
He’s going to be a fan favourite if he can stay healthy. He seems to be a born leader you can’t teach that to people they either have it or they don’t.
Trade someone Bowman wakey wakey the boys. If we don’t make the Playoffs their will be a handful of sackings and rightfully so.
Other teams that are higher in the standings have younger rookies then Howard -Savoie making hay. Savoie-Howard are almost 22 these two aren’t a Kharia type they are Smallish Skilled Scoring Wingers but let’s mold them into a Khaira type. This is beyond stupid either pump and dump while they still have value or give them a honest chance to see what we have.
Not certain how widely this is known. League average SV% has been in decline for several years. However, this season SV% is way down.
The reason appears to be because shots are down. The reason that shots are down is because the league is being more strict in how it’s counting shots – ostensibly wide pucks that are caught are not being counted as shots – or saves for that matter.
Which leads to several questions including “How are those pucks being counted?”. Clearly they will be attempts, but if they are not saves they would not count towards Corsi or Fenwick SV%, Or they might, depending on how the site in question calculates.
The numbers this season are so very different that a criteria like .900 as SV% leading to wins may not hold. Average SV% is presently living at .896. Regression is a thing, and typically SV% increases league wide over the course of a season (in the very least, there is more variance at the start of the season).
But it could very well be that we are looking at an Average SV% below .900 for the first time since ’93-’94 because the league is counting differently.
Thanks for this!
Finally Nurse gets moved to the 3rd line.
Per Gregor:
RNH-McDavid-Mangiapane
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic
Frederic-Henrique-Philp
Howard-Tomasek-Savoie
Janmark-Lazar-Hyman 5th line.
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Regula
Kulak-Walman
Going back to Nurse/Regula which was good early.
I’m to sure that the “rookie line” isn’t the third line.
i hope that the kulak-walman pairing sees good minutes and uncle darryl gets his minutes trimmed… this should spread out the mins a bit more.
regula has so much promise.
speed, size, puck moving, would be nice if he was slightly more physical but he was a clean pick up by stan.
Tony Brar had Philp centering that line and listed them as the fourth. I’d guess, coach stays with the veterans, but we’ll see. I like Nurse with Regula as well. Kulak and Walman could easily be the second pair if Nurse doesn’t settle down
Nurse-Regula is the third pair
Still no Hyman I guess for tomorrow?
He was unofficially ruled out for this game a week ago when coach said – a week, maybe longer – look to get him in before the eastern trip.
Intel today is he may return on the eastern trip – of course, a longer timeline than the last update provided.
I’m sure that the rookie line is playing a sub 8 minutes. McDavid is playing 23 plus
You can win a nickel betting a $100 on Proline on this happening as we speak.
Prospecturion!
The Michiganders retain their #2 ranking in Div-1. Park has 3 + 3 in 10 GP whilst Barnett also has three helpers–he (Barnett) is the only NAmateur yet to find the back of the net.
Or is he? Wakely, who was thought to have gotten his 1st NCAA goal a couple weeks back, was denied it instead. He too remains goalless but has half a dozen apples in 8 GP on a team that doesn’t piss a drop.
Leading the points parade amongst the NCAA gang is Paul Fischer, with 2 + 5 in 8 GP.
No longer leading said parade in the CHL is Lewandowski, now a point behind Lafreniere but still leading the Blades with 5 + 13 in 16 GP.
Michigan (Park, Barnett) @ 5 p.m.
UMass-Lowell (Wakely) @ 5:15 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 6 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 6 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Ranfurly time.
— so a friend of mine former Leaf gave me two tickets for an afternoon alumni friends and family skate at Scotiabank today @ 3 – there were be a bunch of leafs and alumni on ice for this.
— I will be proudly donning an Oil jersey and not by design my 6 year old he plays for the “Leaside Flames” and will sporting Flames colours.
— Hatfield & Mcoys !!!
— I can’t tell you how much of a peacock my 6 year old has been strutting and puffing, letting everyone who will listen that he’s going to be skating with the maple leafs !
From what I’ve read/heard, Savoie’s individual expected goals is actually quite high. There is probably a combination of “lack of finish” and lack of skilled line mates.
Savoie is playing 13 minutes per game including his material PK time.
I don’t think his lineup spot is in question.
Here is hoping there are some top 6 minutes worked in through the year.
I do think the coaching staff has missed an opportunity here with Hyman out. Savoie and Mangiapane could certainly have swapped in recent games, for example.
Its OK – Savoie has a long career ahead on this team.
He started on the fourth line but was the player the coaching staff moved right in to the top 6 for the first few games Jarventie sat (back to backs) and has found a recent home on the third line.
The man looks for contact on every shift – he’ll need to learn to “slow down” a bit in time and ensure he’s not taking himself out of position consistently.
He’s a fun player to watch and cheer for.
Nice to hear you say this. I want this kid to make it to the show and contribute in a positive way.
So do I – of course, I’m an Oilers fan.
At the same time, he is not close to the NHL, not close at all.
Now for something completely different. How about Samuel Jonsson competes with Skinner for the starters job in Edmonton? How long would it take for him to wrestle the #1 job from Skinner?
Skinner doesn’t have a contract past this year unless he takes a pay cut in the Pickard range he’s going bye-bye.
that is ridiculous. amongst goalies who have played 500 mins or more this season his all situation sv percentage is 14th.
The Skinner experiment is going to end soon. We are not good enough to carry average at best Goaltenders anymore. Bowman needs to do the hard part of his job and fix this weakness ASAP.
I think this is more realistic than imagining there is a goalie anywhere in the NHL who is an “upgrade” on Skinner, at even $6M AAV. However, I can’t imagine Jonsson in the NHL anytime soon. In the meantime, Skinner is doing fine, IMO. Goaltending is NOT the problem this team is currently struggling with.
I read the article and the numbers tell the story that McDavid is producing well in the times where there is one less player on the ice. Makes sense. The eye test and the majority of the ice time tells a very different story. He looks like he is trying to do too much solo and not succeeding.
This is where some innovative coaching should come in, but coach KK has fallen into the same trap of his predecessors which is overplaying the two stars and underplaying the rest. The numbers appear to support doing this because the rest seem to be sinking.
I remember Derek Ryan being quoted after a coaching change that starting using bottom 6 more and lo and behold the team looked better and the bottom 6 started to produce. Pretty sure there are few players all time who can contribute positively to team efforts on 6-9 minutes ice time.
3 on 3 is proving more kryptonite this year rather than a previous guaranteed extra point. This is most certainly due to over reliance on the Glimmer twins.
Nobody and I mean nobody likes playing with ice-hogs. I don’t get what K.K end game is? Is he trying and failing at banking early points?
I know it’s a different sport but Jays were such an amazing example of team cohesion. Even though they have superstars the entire team was utilized and felt a part of their success. When McDavid and Drai get 23-25 minutes of icetime and stay out until they can barely make it back to the bench on the pp and overtime shifts, as well as some 5on5, what message does that send to the rest of the team? I’ll tell you! It says we are the only ones on this team who can bring us a win.. the rest of you are just fillers of the remaining minutes, so don’t screw up those minutes.
Yes if all us 2nd tiered fans can see this strategy doesn’t work why can’t the Coach?
I think its important to let jonsson and day get some reps in at the ECHL level, if they continue their run of play, especially in the case of the schvede i think tomkins is susceptible to being sent down to the echl, perhaps in the new year.
Having mused for a few days on matt savoie lack of production i do wonder if the nuge is the key to unlocking both freddi and savoie.
regula IMHO has shown some unreal promise. If you can alternate him and walman with nurse and kulak i think he has potential to be a top 4 dman who has size, speed, and puck moving ability.
Henrique-Davo-Hyman
Podz-Drat-Roslovicski
Freddi-Nuge-Savoie
Howard-Lazar-Mangiapane
Ekholm-Bouche
Nurse-Regula
Kulak-Walman
Skinner.
Team needs to clean up its goalering situation so Jonsson moves up to the Ahl and Day can get most of the starts in the ECHL
Bowmsn needs to test drive Ingram who’s in the last year of his contract?
tomkins has not played well. he could go to the echl eventually i believe.
I guess but if Plan A Ingram isn’t test driven soon then it’s off to plan B. Everyone outside of this blog including Buttons rails on Skinner because they’re not drinking the spiked kool-Aid.
Ingram is not close to ready. He may get there but its months away, not days.
Here is hoping he has a good performance in whichever of this weekend’s games he plays.
As they used to say “we shall see”
Tompkins has played better than Ingram.
On the radio yesterday they were asking “What is the Oilers identity?”
Internally, I’m not sure how they answer that.
Externally I think we have a pretty good idea. They are known as a soft, soft team with two superstars. That’s it.
With this in mind, game plans are built to beat this type of team.
Other teams want to test themselves against the Oilers. The Oilers are providing the same identity, with little change, and with low intensity. Its fun to play them.
Please share. What do Oilers think is their identity?
What do other teams think?
Once we’re ahead we can sit back. Other teams don’t think – they know it.
The Oilers identity is:
“Wake up late for the start of the season, roll out of bed, know they’re already late so may as well have breakfast, stretch, shower and have everything they need for the day like their wallet and keys before going out and doing their job better than 99% of their coworkers”
I don’t buy that they’re soft. They are talented (and know it) and have enough experience to know how to get through the season.
Do people have short memories? Weren’t there similar comments last year about the Oilers being such a soft team in the regular season only for them to be 2nd in hits during the playoffs even before getting to the Finals?
If by “people: you mean me, Id like to push back. But I asked and i am interested in hearing your perspective.
My people is in reference to whoever you were listening to on the radio.
So… who will deliver the hits this year? It seems like most of those expected to aren’t showing up (as yet)
The Oilers last year were not hitting a lot during the regular season from what I recall. There was this narrative going around last year as well that they were too soft and not physical enough. During the playoffs it was a different story.
Lets put it this way:
Last year, regular season:
Zach Hyman – 73 gp, 59 hits.
Podkolzin – 82 gp, 211 hits
Nurse – 76 gp, 161 hits
McDavid – 67 gp, 40 hits
Draisaitl – 71 gp, 23 hits
Nuge – 78 gp, 26 hits
Last year, playoffs:
Hyman – 15 gp, 111 hits
Podkolzin – 22 gp, 100 hits
Nurse – 22 gp, 57 hits
McDavid – 22 gp, 24 hits
Draisaitl – 22 gp, 33 hits
Nuge – 22 gp, 27 hits
Last year, at the time that a number of fans and pundits were complaining about the team being “soft,” I did a quick check: how does heavy hitting numbers correlate with winning? The finding: teams that hit the most had poor-to-middling win records.
I haven’t checked this year, in part because it’s too early to assess pretty much anything. Especially as the difference between wild card and division lead is 3-5 points league-wide.
Who cares if you win enough hockey games to make the playoffs?
The team cares about laying the body when it matters in the playoffs because attrition matters. They learned that lesson after they went to game 7 2 years ago and were completely gassed. Tkachuk, Stone, Kane, Weber, the way they play means being on the shelf longer and everyone else has to pick up the slack.
Have you ever checked someone in hockey? You never get off scott free. Force pushes back on you (wildly simplifying). Now x82 against men much stronger than you or i have ever faced and 2 long runs i dont care at all how much they hit ppl on a tuesday in november.
Laying the body on the worst teams in the league only serves to hurt you in the long run.
I don’t think this teams identity is soft, but their identity definitely is one of lack of urgency or intensity.
It’s shoking how often such a talented team finds itself down 3-0, and yet not surprising at all, when they win the game anyways.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: the most valuable contribution Evander Kane made was to drag the team into a knife fight and up the stakes of the game that otherwise the rest of team would have sleepwalked through.
Need a younger, cheaper Evander Kane type.
They lack urgency then come back from 3-0 down? So do you mean just at the start of games? Fair if that’s your meaning.
Kane blew his top in game 3 and gave florida a game. He was most useful in 2022-23 in the Calgary series then coasted off that for the next few years with some small moments like the Vancouver series.
I liked Kane and what he brought, would love a young Kane power forward but so would the whole league. Anaheim is hoarding them all.
Since our energy guys Ike-Savoie aren’t panning out it’s almost time for Clattenburg time. I do think Connor would do more for the entertainment value over Ike-Savoie combined. Neither new rookie is scoring hitting or fighting in the minutes they recieve. So what’s the point in keeping them? Ike-Savoie still have value but if K.K keeps draining the live out of them then they will be another 2 mismanaged prospects that’ll be worth what we received for yak-Jesse. If Bowman trades them now we might fluke out on a Perron or a better Goalie.
I see Ike-Savoie not as your typical energy guys. They are high draft picks that hope to develop into top six wingers.
Energy guys I see more as high motor, or physical. Perhaps defence specialists. Intense forecheckers. Not that these two cannot do that, just hoping for higher upside in regards to offensive production.
Send Howard down & call up Clattenberg. Why not?
No I think it’s Savoie-Philp that need more as you say Marination time. Savoie has 1G and 1A in 15 games. Clattenburg would easily have this along with 6 scraps and countless hits. If smallish skilled wingers aren’t pointing then they’re lost causes. It’s starting to look like Buffalo pulled a fast one on us.
ummmm clattenburg has a lot of work to do in the AHL rounding out his game before he is remotely ready for the big leagues.
savoie and howard have both been demonstrating improved high danger shares and expected goal shares as the month has gone on and both are learning in real time. you dont play them 20 mins and watch them sink.
Results matter if K.K wants Savoie-Ike to become low-event checking Wingers then Houston we have a problem. There’s a reason Chaulk likes Connor he’s a team first talented high energy Winger. People pay money to see this that they don’t pay to see snooze fest Hockey.
The coach values responsibility above all else when you aren’t a transcendent offensive talent (aces and kings).
Tough for kids but i expect much more after xmas. These guys have almost no NHL experience. Some guys start hot then fade. I think Savoie will be fine and Ike might hit a wall. Getting their feet wet with a multi-year timeline is not a bad thing.
Everyone wants everything now, you realize thats what caused the DOD right? Too much too soon for everyone.
Sather was a innovator he seen Ulf Nilsson-Andres Hedberg-Bobby Hull. A 4th line smug son of a B changed the style of play for the better. He had vision he played the Kids if they had talent put them in positions to succeed. I see none of that I see a team playing rope-a-dope hockey. This style is fine if your the champs but they haven’t won jackshit.
1) “aren’t working out” – lol – again, I’ve never seen any sports fan in history require such immediate results from everything.
2) “almost time of Clattenburg” – ummm, no, no its not – he would certainly try and get some bangs in and will put himself out of position every shift and then would be sent back down due to leaking goals against.
Clattenburg has a chance but there there is a long ways to go.
I encourage you to watch tonight’s and tomorrow’s Condors’ games – tonight there is no conflict with the Oilers – come on, tune in.
Clattenburg would have more of a effect then Savoie who’s working his ass off yet accomplishing zippo maybe it’s Savoie that needs more seasoning. Savoie needs to at least be a threat to score which he’s not. Yamamoto came in and immediately accomplished this because he went to the hard areas is Savoie going to the hard areas?
You’ve never seen Clattenburg play a regular season hockey game – how do you know this?
His coach today said “we’re trying to get him to learn to play hockey”.
Clattenbrug running around trying to hit people, taking himself out of position and taking penalties is not going to help this team
You might have 40 years of wandering in the desert left in you but I know I don’t.
I don’t want the Oilers to aim low. I want them to aim high like when they asked about getting Jake Walman and then got him.
Oiler Cup teams were built on having one of the top 5-10 goalies in the league. I think we need to set the target to one of those even if the price is dear. The goal is to look at struggling teams or teams going on the downslope.
My targets even if they’re unrealistic: Shesterkin in NY, Swayman in BOS, Vasilevski in TB, Wolf in CAL, or Binnington in STL. Surely one of these goalies will want a chance at a cup and waive their NTC/NMC for Edmonton.
I know the commonly quoted options are UPL of Buf or Arvid Soderblom of CHI but betting on “maybe” 1A/1B level goalies is the same as betting on Skinner. Just because you’re okay on a bad team doesn’t mean you’ll be better on a cup contender.
I feel most would agree. As always, it is a question of cost, assets, timing, and willingness from the other GM. But I am on-board.
Imagine the swagger if this team had Thompson or Keumper in net?
keumper has been essentially equal to skinner this yr.
0.900 and a 0.77 gsaa compared to a 0.899 and a 0.47 gsaa for skinz.
Thanks for your wish list. Cap considerations aside, here’s how they compare (I’m using several inadequate metrics, but they’re often used to judge goalies):
SV%
Thompson .938
Keumper .900
Skinner 8.99
GAA
Thompson 1.45
Skinner 2.54
Keumper 2.57
WINS/GP
Thompson 6/9
Keumper 4/10
Skinner 4/10
I’m not sure if this team would be any better with Kuemper in net. He had a fantastic season last year, but LA also seemed to overachieve. A lot of things look to have gone right for LA last season… until they didn’t ;). LA looks to be more like the team that they really are… a mediocre team relying on aging stars who are not able to drive the bus anymore (Kopitar, Doughty, Kuemper), a few good to excellent players (Kempe, Byfield, Fiala) who can’t drive the bus, and a bunch of near replacement level players. I could be completely wrong on that, but I don’t think I am.
Going back to Kuemper, he has virtually identical numbers to Skinner this season. Last season, he was buoyed by a fantastic year for LA, where a lot of players exceeded expectations. Last season, Kuemper faced fewer shots than Skinner, due to LA’s stifling defensive system, but was lit up in the playoffs without that system. Kuemper’s numbers have been in a decline outside of last season, or, at the very least, erratic. Even in the year he won the Cup with Colorado, his numbers were similar to Skinner’s 2023-2024 playoffs, and Pavel Francouz played in a number of the games including most of the Edmonton series. Kuemper is also hurt often.
I would rather have Skinner in my net over the long haul of the season and playoffs.
Not sure any of this is possible in season this year, it would be an off season transaction next summer. For in season, I’d move Henrique + for Ryan O’Reilly to play on the third line. That would be transformative in my opinion and doable from a salary perspective.
Henrique + for O’Reilly would be amazing, if Henrique was willing to waive his NMC. Any thoughts on what the + would be?
I’m still curious about moving Henrique on a wing, though.
Thanks. A couple of days ago I asked for peoples’ goalie “wish list,” cap no consideration.
LT responded that he’d started to write something on this several times. Using Skinner’s current cap hit as the criteria, he’d abandoned the project. My take, and LT has been consistent on this: Skinner is “value-goalieing.” So I appreciate your out-of-the-box, high-bar wish list.
Now, let’s compare, using SV%, GAS, Wins as the criteria to compare the relative merits of these goalies. These are inadequate metrics on their own, but it’s what we have. (Another important metric is postseason wins, but I haven’t pulled those together yet).
As at Oct 7.25, 11am Pacific time:
SV%
Shesterkin .915
Vasilevski .901
Skinner .899
Swayman .897
Wolf .895
Binnington .859
GAA
Shesterkin 2.26
Skinner 2.54
Vasilevski 2.70
Swayman 3.10
Wolf 3.19
Binnington 3.34
WINS/GP
Swayman 5/9
Skinner 4/10
Vasilevski 4/10
Shesterkin 4/11
Wolf 4/13
Binnington 3/11
Binnington should not be a target. He is probably more erratic production-wise than Skinner, and definitely more erratic behaviourally.
I think the most realistic high pedigree goalie we could potentially pry out of somewhere is Saros
My goodness, Swagman is not much of an upgrade, if one at all – he might have the league’s worst contract beside Nurse.
Binningon is not much of an upgrade, if one at all.
All those acquisitions would do would make it more expensive, right?
Sam Jonsson right on track to be the Yesavage the Oilers need in April.
Was thinking the same thing! Maybe pulling a Ken Dryden by adding a Conn Smythe trophy in June with a Calder Trophy to follow up next season…
No pressure lol
I think Ken was 24 years-old when he was called up whereas Moog had just turned 21 same age as Jonsson. Anyhow watching Moog stone the mighty Habs was one of my best memories as a Oilers fan.
Mine too. I remember the first intermission of game 1 and the Oilers were up by a couple of goals. The analysts were all predicting the Oilers to fold, because of course the Habs would get back on track.
It was the same in 1971. Everyone – except us Habs fans – were expecting the mighty Bruin machine to crater this unknown goalie (who they’d drafted years before but neglected to develop, much to their chagrin).
There was a graffito in my neighborhood in those years: “Jesus saves.” Someone had added, “Esposito gets the rebound.” In April ‘71 they could have added, “Dryden saves the rebound.” It was miraculous.
I’ve been reading and listening to Oilers fans and commentators wishing and praying for the miraculous and immaculate conception of a goalie who is cheap and capable of being Jesus-in-the-crease. It would be a wonderful story if Jonsson were the messiah. My bet is, even if he were, Oilers nation would turn on him, as they’ve turned on so many quality goalies who’ve failed them by not backstopping a Cup winner.
Dryden won a Cup, then the Calder.
Skinner almost won the Calder, and almost won a Cup, twice.
The “goalie thing” for Oilers nation has some of the same qualities as messianic thinking It gets in the way of enjoying the team as it is, or of allowing the players (goalies) to show us who they are, in their time.
Close especially with the better team only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
Curling.
Teenage boy hitting 3rd base.
It’s amazing how a really good Goalie can transform a team into winners. Enough we’ve tried 3 times with a inconsistent Goaltender that needs a reset every 2nd week.
Connor McDavid’s season. It’s better than you think.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6784295/2025/11/07/edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid-stats-minutes/
I almost fell out of my chair last broadcast when it was noted he was first in NHL points. Thank god for the pp but still I don’t think I’ve “seen” him this vanilla ever. And still racking up apples.
this is wildly comforting. the team is still in a pretty decent place despite the early season blues and the lack of intensity. Once mcd, bouche, ekholm, etc see some positive regression in their gf compared to hdcf / xgf we should be off to the races.
He’s delivering in every game state not named five-on-five. that, married to his decade resume, tells us what is coming.
— when Milan came over it was often pointed out the amount of his points that were on the PP
— Lucics first year with Oil he put up a lot of points but not as much on 5×5 as I recall
– Many forward stats people were predicting his demise
— Now CmD isn’t a Lucic but 5×5 is the first thing that goes south…
people saying this is a lucic situation are hyperventilating.
amongst centers with 200+ mins played (13 mins a night or more 5v5) mcdavid is 7th in expected goal share, and 6th in high danger chance share, he is 14th in ixg, and 19th in points per 60 despite running one of the lowest shooting percentages of his career 5v5 at 7.6%.
The lowest shooting percentage of his career was 10.60% so we can expect an approximate 30% uptick over the course of the season as he regresses to the mean.
historically his lowest 5v5 points per 60 was 2.56 which is 48% more than his 1.37 points per 60 currently.
he is due for a HUGE heater that will see his points per 60 rates normalize.
it is also important to note that both his expected goals against per 60 and his high danger chances against per 60 are at the lowest rate of his career.
mcdavid will be just fine.
— not sure who is hyperventilating: he’s clearly not Lucic but his 5×5 was down yoy and down this year again.
— he will be “fine” just depends on what that is going forward. It’s not doom and gloom rather the natural evolution
Lucis’s one “good season” with the Oilers was based off of PP production that he had never had in his entire career – like double plus. He was terrible at 5 on 5 in his one good season as an Oiler – and after, of course.
As you said.
I think McDavid’s 5 on 5 scoring will rebound – maybe not to 153 aggregate point levels but somewhat.
Largely a function of a significant disparity in games played.
After last night’s goalapalooza in Dallas, the P/GP shifted significantly.
Nylander – Toronto – 1.82
Eichel – Vegas – 1.62
Carlsson – Anaheim – 1.54
Scheifle – Winnipeg – 1.54
Celebrini – San Jose – 1.50
Rantanen – Dallas – 1.43
McDavid – Edmonton – 1.40
Gauthier – Anaheim – 1.38
Batherson – Ottawa – 1.36
Suzuki – Montreal – 1.36
*Nylander missed 3 games with an injury
** Mark Stone actually leads in P/GP at 2.27 but remains on IR after having played only 6 games at the start of the season.
Interesting!
Coincidentally, if you go by pts/gp, due to the great disparity of games played last year, the NHL’s leading scorers go:
Missed MacKinnon.
1.43
Thank you. As ever, I am curious.
A positive for sure but I’m still concerned considering his stated goal was to score more but only has 4 goals through 15 games.
Has 45 shots, so 3 per game but only 8.9% shooting percentage.
Still, odd for McDavid not to be able to will his performance.