I like to monitor rookie hopefuls before, during and after each season. The first look for 2025-26 is here, but you don’t have to click on the link unless you want to read the comments. The comments are always interesting. Since this is a fascinating season for rookies, let’s dig in.
THE FIRST BLUSH (FROM SEPT)
Total rookies of interest: There are 10. Matt Savoie leads the way, he had a strong AHL season and is the club’s top prospect. He isn’t a lock for the opening night roster, but you can see it from where he stands. I predicted just shy of 40 points in my reasonable expectations, but did note that could go higher with power-play time. People are going to be downbeat on Ike Howard after the rookie games, but for me the preseason opportunities will tell the tale. If he gets sent down early, expect a season in the minors. I have him playing in both Edmonton and Bakersfield, and getting around 10 goals. Additional names to keep in mind are Roby Jarventie, Viljami Marjala, Quinn Hutson, Alec Regula, Damien Carfagna and Beau Akey. David Tomasek and Atro Leppänen are newcomers, but not technically rookies, so I’ll include them in the conversation but acknowledge they do not qualify for the Calder Trophy.
2025 draft notes: Both of the top picks (Tommy Lafreniere and David Lewandowski) had their moments at the rookie camp and both have a chance. I also like Aidan Park’s resume. All are miles and miles from the NHL, as expected.
Best player as a rookie: Savoie should be a plug-and-play, the only sure thing on the roster. If he gets time with Draisaitl, as many of us expect, Savoie could deliver at a much higher rate than anticipated. The Yamamoto introduction in 2019-20 might be a bridge too far, but Savoie is a perfect fit for the big man.
Second best player as a rookie: I’ll give you my Games Played in the RE series as a guide: Savoie 76, Howard and Tomasek 50, Jarventie 9. So, of the group I’ve identified as players of interest, I’m projecting only four to make an NHL appearance.
Oldest rookie: David Tomasek. He is 29 and from my conversation with Jason Gregor a week ago it sounds like the coaching staff will be looking at him in a multi-dimensional capacity. That means skill lines, two-way deployment and some special teams could be on the table. Bottom line: there’s more than one way for Tomasek to make the roster.
Most unusual story I’ll choose Atro Leppänen, because his season in the Liiga is borderline impossible and he seemingly came out of nowhere. We don’t know what we don’t know, but there’s a Reijo Ruotsalainen vibe about his numbers. What if he’s really good?
Longest career Has to be Savoie, but I’ll include Howard in the conversation. He scores goals and may well prove to be more durable.
Anything else? Although I anticipate a “there’s no way nine rookies play for the Oilers” post from someone, the ‘rookies of interest’ segment is mostly about identifying players who are entering a window of opportunity. We all know some, or even most, won’t make it, but we’re talking about playing in a single game. Olivier Rodrigue qualified for that list a year ago, and made it. You never know who spent the summer running up that hill (Kate Bush aside). I had four newcomers playing at least a game in my reasonable expectations, it could be more. Hell, Connor Clattenburg could make the NHL for a game. Opportunities can appear for all manner of players.
SECOND BLUSH (NOW)
The final sentence from the first blush article turned out to be correct, as Connor Clattenburg climbed the depth chart like Spiderman on a mission to make it to the show.
- Matt Savoie 58, 9-9-18
- Ike Howard 28, 2-3-5
- Alec Regula 29, 0-3-3
- Connor Clattenburg 5, 1-1-2
- Josh Samanski 5, 0-2-2
- Quinn Hutson 4, 1-0-1
We should also acknowledge David Tomasek (22, 3-2-5) who doesn’t qualify as a rookie but did make his NHL debut this season.
Total rookies of interest: Six rookies so far this season! I predicted four spending time in the NHL this season: Savoie 76, Howard and Tomasek 50, Jarventie 9. Three of my four have played, plus Clattenburg, Josh Samanski, Alec Regula and Quinn Hutson. Music! This can only be viewed as good news, with a hat tip to Stan Bowman for procuring Samanski and Hutson for just dollars. The last time two free players landed at YEG iirc came when Drake Caggiula and Matt Benning signed out of college. Well done.
2025 draft notes: Oilers scouts did very well based on this season’s results. Tommy Lafreniere has 30 goals and is well over a point-per-game in the WHL; David Lewandowski is also over a point-per-game in the dub plus had a strong WJ’s. Asher Barnett is rocking it in college and played for USA at the WJ’s, that’s a nice resume for a fifth-round selection. Daniel Salonen is playing in the Liiga at age 20, posting an .882SP and is getting starts (25) in tandem with Antti Raanta. Aidan Park is playing effectively for Michigan (Big-10) in a depth role on a deep team. Oilers first pick was No. 83, this is a solid draft so far.
Best player as a rookie: Savoie is the clear leader here, his nine goals and 18 points represent seventh best among Edmonton’s forwards this year. His 0.99 five-on-five points per 60 is shy, but that’s a reflection of the poor third and fourth line offense this season. It should be zero surprise he is unable to push the river at 21. His is 1.35 pts-60 in 134 minutes with McDavid, 1.19 pts-60 in 151 minutes with Draisaitl. I can’t get upset at Kris Knoblauch for fading him on the skill lines, but hope the young man can cash a little more often in the future.
Second best player: I’ll list Ike Howard, who has performed better with the Glimmer Twins than Savoie. There’s much talk about what he hasn’t been able to do, and I respect the defensive aspects of the game need care. That said, there’s just too much offense here to ignore. Savoie is no longer a pure NHL rookie, time for Howard. I’ll mention Samanski here, who appears to be on his way to eating Howard’s lunch. We may have Samanski in this slot in the final edition.
Oldest player: David Tomasek. He started the season at 29, and that’s a tough time to join the world’s best league.
Most unusual story: Samanski is thebiggest spike since we last discussed the rookies. He has held his own in five NHL games and is missed in Bakersfield. There isn’t much else to say for a player who was in Germany one year ago. Quinn Hutson’s fantastic AHL season and solid NHL debut are also worthy of mention.
Longest career: Has to be Savoie, as it was in September.
Anything else? Connor Clattenburg. The fact he made the NHL is a big damned story. The fact he did it at 20 is an indication that math doesn’t always bold the names who are worth drafting. Those old timey scouts are vital to the process, and this is an example of why eyes that can project teenagers into the future are a big part of the game.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk about a huge day for Canada at the Olympics, including multiple medals and Connor McDavid’s long awaited debut. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Tomkin will start tomorrow and Ungar the following night.
Picks joins the team on the 17th – we’ll see what that lead to.
Leppanen will be back in the lineup tomorrow night (won’t play both nights of the back to back though).
Gregor recent piece at Oilers Nation does a good job of breaking down production vs minutes played (bottom six) and compares Oilers to similar bottom six competition in similar places in the standings. (60points)
Conclusion. Ice time is very similar, however other teams bottom six players produce much more offence than other teams bottom six players with the same ice time received. This was constant through 8 teams sampled.
Great piece of work he did, but I think the conclusion, while valid, opens up the next set of questions.
Why?
Mismatched quality of competition? Oilers bottom six faced other teams top six? I doubt this is true based on LT’s recent work showing McDavid is playing the most against Elites.
Defensive support is much better, or more offensively talented on other teams bottom pairings?
Oilers defence are not getting puck up to bottom six?
Some type of coaching support, system change, or ineffective ask?
Other teams bottom six players are simply more talented than Oilers?
I must have missed some. But if they key to winning is the bottom six, then this needs figured out. If they are just not performing, somebody needs to get them going by whatever means necessary.
If they are simple not as good, well change must be made to get better. Trade, waiver, or replacement by youth who will get better given reps and patience.
Good news – it looks to be fixable.
“Other teams bottom six players are simply more talented than Oilers?”
Occam’s razor:
This philosophical razor advocates that when presented with competing hypotheses about the same prediction and both hypotheses have equal explanatory power, one should prefer the hypothesis that requires the fewest assumptions.
Take a look at the 3C position on competing teams and start there.
After the top 6 forwards and the top 4D, the 3C is by far the most critical piece of a winning lineup.
The Oilers don’t even have a competent 3C on the roster assuming RNH is a top 6 winger.
The Oilers along with 7 other teams the last I checked have played 20 or more forwards this year. Included in that number are several rookies. The vets certainly haven’t pissed a drop. The rookies are getting their feet wet. And well injuries, like other teams. With all that being said the top of the lineup is absolutely killing it in the goal production department.
Of course Draisaitl’s early goal was backhanded.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/a-bolt-goes-through-mcdavid-sets-the-tone-for-dominant-canada-win/
McDavid created 14 scoring chances. Czechia? 12
I couldn’t watch the game, on 1440 they are talking about how Canada was getting the puck to the net with traffic
I’m sure the coaches are watching, I hope Connor comes back with some better offensive ideas for them
Drai’s centering pass on the PP goes off Stuzle and in – Samanski causing absolute chaos in front of the net – nice to see Samanski net front on the PP.
Very cool to see Samanski playing with Drai! Have to think this will be very positive for his development. Perhaps that mythical 3C Oilers have been searching for!
He needs to be on the team post-break although I don’t think it will happen.
Henrique is being activated and, as of now, even with Pick and Samanski assigned to the AHL, they need to divest of another roster player to get compliant.’
I’m sure Rico gets the opportunity to “get his job back”, however, if he continues his meh 5 on 5 play, he needs to be on the 4th line (he may be very important to the PK…..).
Samanski should play over Janmark, in my opinion, based on pre-break levels of play (and an argument can be made that he should play over Henrique and Lazar and, of course, Mang and even Frederic).
Hell an argument can be made that Jarventie should play a game over most of them.
I really don’t think they can have Henrique at 3C. Unless he comes back revitalized somehow. They should go straight to Nuge IMO. They have so many options for that winger spot with McDavid
Samanski should NOT be the one that goes. Henrique can take a seat in the pressbox. If Henrique wants to play, he can waive his no move.
Sitting Henique in the press box doesn’t get Samanki on the roster.
Samanski and Pickard are assigned to the AHL right now and the Oilers need to make a move to get a player out in order to activate Henrique – unless they are waiting Janmark (which would give them the cap space to call up Samanki – I think), well……..Samanski likely is heading to Bako.
They need to get Mang traded.
nice to see oiler legend patrick russell in action!
His called back Goal with the Oilers was a Sin.
I’ve got Bowman’s next move: New Jersey defenseman Jonathan Kovacevic.
On the surface this looks like a great move – Kovacevic is a 6’5″, 220 lbs defensively minded right-shot defender who had a very good year in 24-25. He is signed for 4 more years at just $4M AAV. The Devils are out of playoff contention and have Hamilton and Pesce signed with RFA Simon Nemec needing a contract, so they’d be open to moving him.
But dig a little deeper and you’ll see that he sustained a knee injury in the playoffs last year and underwent surgery last May. He has been on LTIR up until a month ago, and according to Edge data his skating has been significantly impacted compared to last season and the on-ice results have suffered accordingly. Expect Bowman to pay full value in the hopes that his game recovers, thus making his marquee deadline acquisition a crapshoot for the second year in a row.
Remember, you heard it here first.
New Jersey wants desperately to move Dougie Hamilton to make room for Kovacevic and have granted Hamilton’s agent permission to seek a trade.
Vancouver has been rumoured to be a potential destination if other moves align.
Can Samanski be the new Erickson-Eck?
That’s a hell of a bar – seems a stretch, a big one, but you never know.
just gotta squint a little…
Draisaitl scored less than 30 seconds in……
Where is the game on? Can’t find it on Sportsnet.
Found it— TSN
its also free on cbc gem if u have internet
Tampa waived 22-year old 2nd round draft pick big tweener rightshot centre St. Louis native Jack Finley late last week to have him play games over the Olympic break.
The Blues claimed him.
I wonder Jon Cooper said to Doug Armstrong about that! -).
Armstrong would have claimed Finley if his own mother placed him on waivers
Jeesh, if there was some type of unspoken agreement in place, this is worth throwing punches over.
23 year old Finley was a high target for me during this draft year, but he went 57th (a reach) when the Oiler’s next pick after the 14th (Holloway) was #100 (Carter Savoie). I figured he’d likely get picked between mid-3rd & mid 4th round. A good-skating 6’5” RHC with NHL pedigree is hard for GM’s to pass up, though.
Finley’s most productive season was during his draft year, in his D1 season he only played one game due to injury.
Of note, the Oilers have Jarventie (#33) & Prokop (#73) in the organization from this draft, while Carter Savoie, who has not played AHL games since April 2024, is now in the Slovak League.
Carolina seems like the most logical landing spot for Binnington if he wins gold.
Excellent debut by Canada vs a talented, tough Czech team.
There could be some fugly scores vs France and in the quarterfinals if they keep up this relentless focus.
I hope they don’t take the Swiss lightly.
McDavid with a pass to Suzuki in front of the net, who deflects it past Dostal. 3 apples for 97.
5-0 Canada.
Telling which D pair Cooper sent out to preserve the shutout late in the period.
McDavid on the PP sends a cross-crease pass to MacKinnon who snaps it home. Two apples for 97.
4-0 Canada in the 3rd.
I was told that Jordan Binnington was a bum and even mocked for even suggesting he would probably be the go-to choice in this short pressure packed tourney.
It was as true for Ken Dryden as it is today: Great G’s owe it to great D’s. To be fair, Binnington was dialled in nicely today and made some fine solo stops when the game was close.
(corollary: being an Oiler G is a tough gig)
I myself wanted Binnington in a trade he would have been dialled in for 2 Cup runs as his contract expires next year. I knew the price for Binnington would be too steep for Bowman. Armstrong is buddies with Holland who still probably pissed he got the green weenie in Edmonton. Instead we get 3 runs of Jarry who I personally haven’t seen enough of to base an opinion on. All I know is I watched Binnington almost single handily win a Cup. Binnington also just won the pressure packed 4 nations Cup that was as big a game against USA as I can recall going all the way back to us playing CCCP in 72. Binnington is a gamer I don’t give shit what his save percentage is on a team tanking. All I know is Binnington is a gamer and those types are scarce.
To be fair, Binnington has never faced the Oilers challenge.
By that I mean, goaltended for the Oilers. Behind Oilers defencemen. Playing Knoblauch’s system.
He would have to do that to draw a fair comparison.
In his post game interview Cooper was asked when he decided Binnington would start.
He said a year ago after the 4 Nations Cup.
Yes Sir even a 8 year-old Kalash child from the mountains of Pakistan knew they would go with Binnington to begin with.
Glad you made it through that mistreatment. That game proved you irrefutably correct.
Another blow dealt to the angry mob. They saw Binnington shut out the Czechs with tears in their eyes, and extinguished their torches. Just give Canada the gold already, it’s over.
It’s better than starting with a loss in fact it’s a dream start unless of course you’re not cheering for Team Canada?
It’s nap time, grandpa. I have no clue how you jumped to that conclusion based on my post.
Binnington has a very nice game today but I would stop a little short of that meaning anything. I’m sure he’s had quite a few very good starts for the Blues this year to go along with his bottom of the league goaltending on the season.
Stuart Skinner had consecutive shutout in the WCF and stole game 6 against Dallas the prior year – did the get him anointed?
Binnington has been shit in many big games through his career. Presuming he plays in the medal rounds, I hope he’s lights out.
Yes I’m sure Jon Cooper will bench Binnington after he reads this insightful cutting edge post. I wonder if Cooper has Skinner on speed dial?
So, let me get this straight, you get to disagree daily with management and coaching staff and bash them for how they handle and play certain players but then you type this when another poster provides an opinion on deployment.
This update anchor is either:
-> terribly nervous
-> or terribly forcing her accentuation to try to mimic sports broadcasters that is clearly not close to her natural flow and cadence
Sounds super disjointed
i do wonder about what bowman will do.
It appears he needs to plug some holes but he doesnt have a ton to play with.
The fact they just extended Hutson and Leppanen is a tell… this organization seems to telegraph things and i cannot see them trading a player they campaigned hard to get and just extended.
IMHO they can sell Howard or Savoie if they get a cost controlled plug and play asset for the remainder of 97 contract. I do think it makes more sense to keep Howard and the 1st and package them in addition to other assets in the offseason for a premium asset, the mushy middle guys DO NOT WORK in edmonton. We need to focus on premium blue chip assets IE Filip Forsberg, Rob Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Shane Wright etc.
Ike Howard.
Matt Savoie
2027 1st rounder.
2026 2nd rounder
2027 2nd rounder
Spencer Stastney
Beau Akey
2026 3rd rounder
Roby Jarventie
Josh Samanski
Viljami Marjala
Alec Regula
Damian Carfagna
Maxim Berezkin
Assets they need to dump that have negative value.
Andrew Mangiapane.
Mattias Janmark
Trent Frederic
The prudent move is do what it takes to trade mangiapane with no cap coming back after olympic break, waive janmark and roll with samanski till the deadline.
My bold prediction is that the oilers keep their powder dry unless a blue chip player that they think they can extend for the mcd window like jon carlson lands in their laps.
It will be a 3rd liner with bite, aka jarventie and a 2nd for morgan barron. and Mangiapane+Regula being sent out as a cap dump, and then maybe a deal for a physical 3rd pair dman like zac whitecloud or nic jensen
Going into the playoffs with.
Roslovic-Mcd-Hyman
Podz-Drat-Savoie
Barron-Nuge-Kapanen
Samanski-Lazar-Freddi
henrique/freddi alternate
Ekholm-Bouche
Nurse-Emberson
Walman-Whitecloud/Jensen
Stastney
is totally workable.
OR if a player on a small enough deal to fit under the cap such as shane wright or a 50% retained Carlson becomes available and you think you can extend him for a few years you do that and spend whatever assets necessary.
Roslovic-Mcd-Hyman
Podz-Drat-Savoie
Samanski-Nuge-Kapanen
Henrique-Lazar-Frederic
Ek-Bouche
Walman-Carlson
Nurse-Emberson
Stastney
Conroy is not trading with the Oilers. I agree it’s probably the Iceman getting traded with his shredding of the AHL combined with his Hobey Baker Award still has value.
my point being that they will possibly trade the iceman which IMHO is a mistake, but it will not be to “cap dump mangiapane” it will be for a material upgrade that can help through mcdavids contract.
I believe this player can be obtained with Howard plus a draft pick and the dumping of Magpies contract.
Samanski is a center, play the man at his position. If you need a young winger, Oilers have several that qualify.
He’s the Dreamboat Annie size for a 3-C.
samanski is playing LW with leon as we speak.
The Germans were my dark horse pick weeks ago as Leon is not playing 2nd fiddle to anyone. Leon carried the German flag in for the opening ceremonies that honour is not taking lightly by a gamer like Leon.
Just saw on Twitter that CBJ will be resigning Coyle and Jenner so there goes that idea. Will be interesting to see who we go after. I still like Giroux as a medium cost addition.
also thinking, as many have stated that they need to split up Bouchard and Ekholm. Part of the issue with the bottom six may be that they barely get to play with our one good d pairing.
I’ve been to a few Senators games this year. Giroux can still contribute; add in his experience and leadership and he would be a great addition.
giroux or barron for the 3rd line.
When Giroux signed in Ottawa he stated he specifically wanted to “go home” and play for the Senators.
He has a full NMC and while his cap hit is low at $2 million, he also has performance bonuses that could bring the total to $4.75 million.
Hes also on an expiring contract and 38 and has never won a cup. I would imagine he would want to go on a run.
He might.
Where would he have the best chance of doing that?
And which teams have the most assets to acquire him?
I don’t know. Maybe a team that has been in the final the past two years???
The trade deadline is March 6th and that team is currently barely hanging on to a wildcard spot in the WC.
He might want more of a sure thing THIS season and he has always expressed a preference for playing in the EC.
Montreal might be a better choice.
Surprised there wasn’t a line or two, maybe even three about Unger.
Ungar will be on next year’s first blush, but I haven’t seen any mention of a recall beyond “I wish they would recall Connor Ungar” and doubt we will. He’s come a long way, and is a bona fide prospect, but I just don’t see him in the conversation for this season. I’d love to see an even bigger story than Samanski and Clattenburg, though. It would be a monster.
It feels as it really does have a chance of being a monster, 🤞
McDavid robbed not once but twice by Dostal on a 2-on-1.
2-0 Canada in the 2nd.
Team Canada are playing at their SuperSonic level. It could be 5-0 but Dostal is keeping it close.
McDavid wins a race to the puck along the boards, sends a cross-ice pass that finds Makar whose point shot is deftly tipped by Celebrini. 1-0 after 1.
Said pass was behind his intended target Wilson, but Makar followed up the play and got that point shot off.
Fantastic opportunity (and a follow-up chance) on a two-on-one with Hagel in the second period. Man that was a sweet chance.
That 97 guy looks pretty good for a 3 rd line centre…..
I think Leppanen should be back this weekend – if he didn’t get hurt we may be talking about him on a daily basis he was playing so well (and started from so far back).
Here is hoping for a healthy stretch run for him and he picks up close to where he left off.
Maybe he’ll catch fire, see a recall and turn into the modern Reijo Routsalainen! A man can dream! 🙂
Who doesn’t love Reijo with those sweet headman passes and that low blast from the point. Sather liked him enough to go after him 2 times if my memory serves me correctly.
I was 10-11 years old during those days but remember him being a great late season add. Didn’t he play more playoff games than regular season games as an Oiler?
Notable that Samanski wasn’t even mentioned in the initial write-up – damn he’s come a long way.
In my opinion, he’s done more than “hold his own” – the minutes have definitely been sheltered but he has done very well by number and the eye matches.
Thank you Dallas Eakins (and Stan Bowman).
Eating Howard’s lunch.
Agreed, the coach might be extremely stubborn, but his ask seems pretty simple. Be responsible and not a liability and you’ll get minutes. Janmark has been here forever on that and that alone (coach will even overlook ‘some’ dumb penalties if he trusts that aspect of your game).
We may not prefer it but every player should know the template to play NHL minutes for KK. Hell even Clatt had the good sense to not fully run around and he got far more minutes than could be expected of a player of his incoming pedigree.
That’s the mentality of every NHL coach not just Knoblauch.
Have you ever seen Jarventie play?
He would also be miscast in that role.
If Jarventie even gets a call-up do you actually think K.K is going to use Jarventie in anything other than a energy role. If so I have some Lakefront property for sale in Florida
The question has nothing to do with your statement (which was an opinion that Jarvenite would be suited for a 4th one enemy role) or my response thereto.
Good grief, do you converse like this in person with spoken word as well?
Not applying for the same job, Howard went to the AHL and dwarfed everyone, Samanski included.
I would not say that in the least.
Different skill-sets, different trust level and usage by the coach based on those skill sets.
Samanski is more versatile, playing center & LW and also probably can PK. Much more of an all around skill set. While Howard’s skill set is limited. What happens if he can’t score at the NHL level?
I don’t know what that has to do with the opinion that Samanski isn’t “eating Howard’s lunch”……
He gets traded and has a Miroslav Satan like career.