The Condors are back in action tonight, with the All-Star break now a memory. This edition of the team owns a 25-14-7 record and could hit 40 wins for the first time in franchise history. The list of Condors players who have had a positive impact on the AHL season is long, and more encouraging those names appear to have NHL futures. Whatever you think of Stan Bowman, the turnaround in Bakersfield since his arrival has been a major positive.
I wrote about McDavid, Draisaitl and the trade deadline at The Athletic today. Please read this.
Atro Leppanen returns to action tonight for Bakersfield and that’s a good thing. His splits this season are remarkable:
- First 18: 1-11-12, 10-20 (33 pct) EV Goal Pct; 0-4-4 EV strength points
- Next 10: 2-6-8, 12-7 (63 pct) EV Goal Pct: 2-1-3 EV strength points
It’s a fantastic turnaround, and notable because his play was so poor early in the season. Leppanen was rewarded with a new contract recently, it’s $850,000 no matter where he plays (Edmonton or Bakersfield). That tells me that Leppanen will be in the mix for No. 7 defensemen next season with the big club.
I’m not sure he gets there, but it is recognition of improved play. We saw how difficult it can be for a forward to come over late 20’s with David Tomasek, and Leppanens adjustment to the AHL had some major holes that needed filling. I’ll suggest Leppanen’s chances at 100 NHL games are at about 10 percent, although the idea he plays in a single NHL game is absolutely worth noting.
If I’m making a list of players from this year’s Condors who will play 100+ games in the NHL? I’ll go Ike Howard, Quinn Hutson, Josh Samanski, Connor Clattenburg, Beau Akey, Damien Carfagna. That’s a lot. I don’t see 100 games for Leppanen, but he has another year and a substantial contract and that counts for a bunch.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk with Steve Lansky about the Olympics, and discuss the rumblings about Oilers moves after the teams return to work leading up to the deadline. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl at the Olympics and Ike Howard might be the ask at the deadline.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7041939/2026/02/13/oilers-mcdavid-draisaitl-olympics-debut-trade-deadline/
If the ask is Howard, I’d look to move Savoie.
His ceiling isn’t high enough, but there may still be GMs out there who think it is.
The sheer quantity of Hutson, Howard, Samanski, Clattenburg and possibly Jarventie means you can make that move.
I think, even now, Howard’s ceiling would have more trade value.
Probably – but that’s why you keep him instead.
As many have said, I don’t think the team should roll 3 undersized non aggressive forwards. Decisions will have to be made, I hope the org has a firm grasp of who is the best amongst them
I’m leaning to that being Howard, because offense is something a smaller guy can contribute. Samanski has probably already eaten one of their lunches being an NHL size C with range. If Jarventie stays healthy he’ll eat another
For me Savoie or Hutson, I don’t know if either have much appeal to another team. It’s probably Mr. Hobey or the bigger guys that do
To get rid of Magpie and get a useful bigger-heavier bottom 6 player in return I would say one of the will be attached. Howard-Hutson-Savoie I’ll throw in Akey as well. It’s obvious K.K isn’t going to give Howard a fair shot so I could see Howard being the centrepiece of a deal.
I think you’re overestimating the cost of moving cap. I can’t think of one time since the cap came in that a team has used an A-prospect to dump $3.6M worth of cap – nevermind when that contract is attached to a still-useful player.
With the Cap floor going up significantly the next 2 years there will be a lineup
for Howard and if the price is Magpie G.M’s will pay it. I think will even get back a useful bigger forward (Schaefer type) The Iceman on his new team will instantly see top 6 with either PP-2 or PP-1 time. I do think Howard ceiling is 30 plus comparable to Brock Boeser and the best part is he’s on a ELC for the next 2.5 years which makes him very enticing.
Little doubt teams would take on Mang to acquire Howard – the point being made is that Oiler would not do that – not event close.
Yes, Howard definitely has 30 goal potential and the Oilers are giving him the privilege of assessing him in developing his overall game so that he can get the ice time and deployment to get there in coming years.
EXACTLY: we are just over 1/6th of the way through his ELC – Howard will provide massive value to the Oilers as a top 6 forward for most of that contract – reasonable expectations regarding time of arrival – they are a thing.
A few things:
1) Reja attributes Howard with low value toward the Oiler as he’s blind to development and reasonable expectation for prospects.
2) You are right, I would not move Howard to dump Mang, not even close but I did want to note that Mang’s contract is tougher given that 2nd year of term left. It it was expiring, it would be much easier to move – the second year definitely increases cost.
And due to it being structured with signing bonuses it is all but buyout proof,
Any acquiring team would be stuck with him for the entire term.
Contracts as low as that are not a cap problem, especially when the remaining term is 1 year. Why would anyone have to buy it out? If he moves it will be for little return or maybe with a lower tier asset
Why would ANY team acquire the contract without a return?
More than 3 million to waste on the second year?
I’m in the boat the right move is likely for oilers to be open to retention on magpie’s contract.
Like find the price point it’s not just seen as a dump.
There are “seller” teams like columbus who truly don’t have much appeal for free agents anytime overly soon in present condition. I’d wager there is a salary he could be dealt at where it’s more seen as a positive part of package than paying to remove.
At this point in the season, sellers are not normally also buyers.
There are more than a few teams, TOR, NYR, VCR, STL, CAL that are furiously shedding salary, not adding it.
You mention Columbus but they are 4 points out of a playoff spot with a game in hand and there more than a few teams thinking they still have a shot.
It’s a very limited market.
Because he is a useful NHL player who isn’t too old on a lower contract. That Knobby isn’t a fan doesn’t mean he’s done
I did say Howard-Magpie for a useful Schaefer type forward that can be used properly as a bottom 6 forward for K.K
Howard has learned what he needs to do, and show Knob, in order to gain the trust to play in the top 6. Now, I don’t necessarily agree that this should be required (to the level that Knob requires) but the player is currently working on that part of his game in the best development league in the world.
The presumption is, when he’s called up next, he can show growth and Knob will play him in the top 6.
Conclusion: it not obvious that the coach won’t give Howard “a fair shot”.
At the same time, sure, he could be part of a deal – he’s the top prospect in the org right now and has value.
I think K.K is stubborn he had the perfect window for Howard against the Canucks in the Leon spot. Instead he goes with Walman. Walman is now part of the core. I know why K.K went with him as he was trying to get Walman going. Somebody is getting traded pick your poison Savoie-Howard-Hutson. Could Hutson possibly be going to the Habs would they even entertain the thought of Magpie and his cap hit for another year?
I also wanted Howard to get the Leon spot on the PP but Knob went with the vet who also has a one-time bomb (different type of shot than Howard) and has considerable PP experience from San Jose. I believe that Knob will, in time, evolve with his ability to trust young players in certain roles and/or the likes of Howard will simply force it – he hadn’t done that at the time.
Sure, one of the prospects/kid may go in a trade, I simply disagree with it being Howard at the value you are attributing to him in a trade on the premie that Knob won’t play him so throw him in to get a cap dump and a marginal player.
If they trade Howard, its likely for material value and not for a rental (unless it a SUBSTANTIAL player.
Howard to get a team to take on Mang’s contract in isolation is egregious.
Bowman knows the value of Howard on his ELC for the next two year – and he’ll get hi top 6 time.
For me, I’d love for that trade asset to be Hutson – I have him below the likes of Howard and Samanski – he’s FAR exceeded my expectation but he may be an NHL tweeter – lets not forget he’s older than the others.
Connor wants a forechecking machine like Tom Wilson.
So… Zach Hyman.
I think Connor already has one of those. He needs a shooter on the other side.
I did read and it is very good. Oilers coaching staff betty have their act together after the deadline. They are ones on a “show me” basis now.
Show me something.
Condors were very flat last night. Leppanen looked like a player who hasn’t played in awhile. The ECHL 4th line was the most effective line for most of the night.
Not much juice on this team, the scoring has dried up 3rd loss in a row, 2 at home where they once had a sparkling win percentage There last 3 goals have been scored 6 on 5 in the last minutes of the last 2 games.
They are currently 16-6-1 at home and 9-9-6 on the road, both good for 3rd in the Division and is where they currently stand overall, one point behind #2 Colorado. They are 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
I think Howard & Hutson have hit that NCAA wall, since they aren’t used to playing so many games in a season. Howard is at 51 combined regular season games & Hutson is at 46. Howard averaged 36 & Hutson 39 NCAA games over the last 3 seasons.
in his last 12 games, Hutson has scored 1 goal & 4 assists and is -4, Howard has 2 assists and is -4 in his last 3 games, in his prior 4 games to these he scored 1 goal & 4 assists, but in 2 of those games he was blanked.
These are also the last games since his likely deflating return from the NHL, so this may also be a factor, as his production is at 1 ppg in these 7 games vs 1.44 in the previous 23 games.
Hopefully they both get their second wind, soon.
Samanski is a big loss for this team, there is no one else anywhere like him on the roster.
Condors FINALLY get on with a couple minutes left on the 6 on 5.
Poulin tries the suff from the goalline – puck goes across the cease and Hamblin puts it in the empty net.
Down 2-1 with 2:25 to go.
Summarizing! (Side A)
Barnett tallied his 4th goal of the year.
Lewandowski and Wakely each had an assist.
Nicholl was denied soup but had 6 SOG while being a wizard on the dot, winning 25 of 33 draws (75.8%).
Park and Fischer were also forbidden soup.
Lafreniere’s match is in progress.
Summarizing! (Side 2)
Soup eluded Lafreniere too.
Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
Connor McDavid is the first player ever to record six points in two games to open an Olympics with NHL participation. Marian Hossa (Slovakia, 2006) and Teemu Selanne (Finland, 2006) previously had five.
After today’s horrible injury to Kevin Fiala, Holland and the Kings now have $18.35 million in cap space and 9 draft picks to go big game hunting up to the deadline.
That could upset more than a few apple carts.
Too soon.
Pretty sure Holland will be on the phone first thing in the morning.
This isn’t true in various ways.
For one, if they were to put Fiala on LTIR it would open up exactly $0 in extra cap space.
They would have to add apx $10MM of cap space to their roster prior to LTIRing Fiala and adding extra cap space.
Next, has Fiala been ruled out for the playoff? If not, then, they can only access $3.8MM of LTIR reserves
Try and be at least a little creative.
1) Holland had already said publicly he was looking for another big roster addition after adding Panarin.
2) If you saw Fiala’s injury you would know it is very unlikely he will return to play at all this season. Legs are not supposed to bend that way.
“Arpon Basu of The Athletic reported that Fiala has been taken to a local hospital, and there are concerns that the injury could be season-ending.”
and what you said is still not accurate, even if Fiala is out for the season.
Yeah only you’d spin losing one of your only good offensive players to an injury that may take multiple years to recover as a positive
Oh it’s far from a positive.
But it certainly should shake up the trade deadline.
To my biased eyes, 97 is the best Canadian player. And in an imaginary world, wouldn’t Tom Wilson make a huge difference to the current state of the Oilers where some indifference and lethargy has crept in….although I suspect the defense needs some adjustments too.
So I think Kuemper gets the next start against France then Cooper has the tough decision on who to go with?
Little doubt he’s going with Binnington for the quarters and, at that point, unless there is a pull and a come-back (or injury), he’s the guy.
That’s a long break in-between games for Winnington.
I think Binnington will play against France
Wilson is a menace, even if he isn’t headhunting.
We probably have 2 Cups if we had Wilson who would have neutered Bennett and Tkachuk. Yet then again Wilson would been benched for taking penalties like Kane was.
Does Wilson have a history neutral zone stick infractions and high sticking the opposition in the face consistently?
If the Olympics are proving anything ,it’s that it would be utterly criminal for Bowman to not be all in and do whatever is necessary at providing McDavid a team that has a legit shot at competing for the cup. Prospects, picks, ship it all out if it brings in the necessary ingredients at another cup run.
Any talk of sitting on hands and keeping the powder dry is absolute nonsense.
Unless the Oilers organization gets itself aligned on strategy, deployment, and execution, any moves will not matter to the outcome.
Yikes. Cellebrini-McDavid-MacKinnon just happened. Again
McDavid drives around a d-man to the net and gets a chance that’s foiled, MacKinnon buries the rebound.
Another 3-point game for 97.
Mc to Mac, patty-whack Nate’s a dog on a bone.
Mac from Mc and Mack.
Knoblauch not the only coach who likes to load up 97 with 29.
Your wit has brightened many of my days. It’d due that I finally told u
Here is some of the 200 pound plus forwards Bowman drafted or obtained that played bottom 6 for him. Stalberg-Sharp-Brouwer-Ladd-Byguglien-Bickell-Burish-Kopecky-Smolenak-Havlat-Bouma-Nordstrom-Brunette-Panik-Bollig-Hayden-Stalberg-Morin-Kostka-Rozival-Wingels-Anismov-Handzus-Kempf-Van-reimdyk-Nylander-Duclair-Perlini-Ejdsell-Martinsen-Johnson. It’s TikTok time for 1 or even 2 of the lightweights Savoie-Hutson-Howard. Bowman is trying to win a Cup this year and not play a game with his Head Coach.
Id argue that much of the bottom6 acquisitions for Chi were not just big boys but also hands and speed, and value. It was also a different era in the NHL. I’d argue that modern analytics provides excellent valuation that makes finding trade-wins a difficult task.
Yes I forgot to mention quick passes skill and speed by the bigger boys. The Bowman Chicago teams reminded me of the Oilers in the Eighties they were that good. If not for the Cap Bowman wins 5 or 6 Cups. It’s a copycat league whoever wins the Cup that team is emulated.
Frank Seravalli: “Re Oilers/Paul Coffey return rumours: The best way to explain the scenario is, there are fences that would need to be mended; I think both Knoblauch and Coffey have probably been pretty stubborn at times”
– Kevin Karius Show
Interesting let’s bring back Messier as well he can old school a handful of the passengers..
Swiss seem to be stuck in neutral this period.
…with a few holes in their game?
Canada made an adjustment. No more jailbreak as soon as they get possession. The C circles very low on the breakout and the next F plays inside the redline too. All exits are under methodical control so nothing dares come back the other way after a neutral zone turnover. Easy to do when you’re playing with the lead.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player who can one time a shot quicker than Celebrini.
All world.
That quick onetimer is very very practiced too. Love watching it. I would be petrified to have my team playing against it.
He’s got a bit of windmill cricket action which deceives… for now.
I’ll wait a few years before sending him to the shooting pantheon with Shutt, Brett Hull, Bossy, Ovi and Drai.
There’s a lot more to this kid’s game, too.
He just manufactured a goal with sheer speed and moxie.
Mike Gartner had a wicked shot as well.
I’ve been a fan of Mike Johnson’s since he played. He’s a brilliant colour guy. Not as good as Ferraro but a whole ballpark better than Simpson.
McDavid with his best Wilson impression and absolutely levels Glauser in the offensive zone.
Connor feeds Harley some high octane sauce for an early 2-0 lead.
It’s Connor’s world and we’re just living in it!
McDavid opens the scoring, sniping short-side from the right circle on the PP.
And now an apple as he pulls up inside the blue line, fires a cross-ice pass to Harley who makes it 2-0.
He then lays out a Swiss player behind his (the Swiss) net.
Can we call a goal, an assist, and a thunderous hit a Connor McDavid Hat Trick?
I was thinking about team structure today.
Not in terms of player type, but in terms of career stage/contract types and how they fit.
An ideal team should look something like:
Three full-freight stars on line one.
A full-freight star second line center, flanked by a high-potential rising player and a short-term but high end vet on line two.
Line three features a high-potential rising C, then two short term wingers.
Line four features a combo of very short term players and hopefully another mid-high ceiling riser.
Top 2 D are full-freight stars.
3D is also full-freight near-star. #4 is a high-ceiling riser.
#5-7 feature at least one mid-high riser (ideally 2), and short term vet(s).
Goal is the most interesting spot.
My preferred path is 2 young high-potentials and a mid-tier short term vet.
But if you can secure a star, you can do so, and supplement him with a high-potential backup and a reliable journeyman 3rd (again, short term)
When I say short term, this is 1-2 years, the preference being 1.
This structure means you’re an excellent team, will always have cap space heading into the next season, motivated players in all the support spots, and you have a very solid core.
GMs instinct to “lock them up” is killing them.
Give yourself room to work.
In a cap/UFA world, this is the way.
A roster should always be build around a core of players aged 24-30. Elite players usually push well into 30 something.
Where the young emerging players and the 30 somethings slot varies depending on the positions of the core group.
Creating the doughnut hole in the age profile, the Oilers have basically made that a permanent fixture since the 2006 Stanley Cup run tends to be fatal to contending.
The Oilers were finally close to collapsing the doughnut hole after the first Stanley Cup final in 2024, but Jackson and Bowman immediately recreated it by losing Broberg, Holloway, McLeod, and Skinner.
For the rest of McDavid’s prime years in Edmonton, the doughnut hole will be there, as it has been for the entirety of his career here.
Oilers were the oldest team in the league last season and were in the SCF – I would ay they were contending.
“tends to be fatal” does not equal “fatal”.
Prospectquest!
A septet of NAmateurs suit up today as Berry and #15 St. Thomas get a weekend off.
The Michiganders, as a result of their split vs. rival Michigan State last weekend, have been bumped to #2 by said Spartans.
Lewandowski is the only NAmateur to lead his team in points, with 48 in 43 GP. A chance to reach 50 tonight looks promising since the Blades host a porous Swift Current squad. The Blades are in a good spot to make playoffs as they sit 6th in the Eastern Conference, 12 points up on the Moose Javians.
Lafreniere and the Blazers are not quite as secure despite being 4th in the West. They are 10 points clear of 9th, so they too appear positioned for postseason play.
Nicholl and the Knights are not the powerhouse of yesteryear but should make it to the dance too, sitting 5th in the OHL Western Conference with a massive 17-point bulge over 6th-place Guelph.
Michigan (Park, Barnett) @ 4:30 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
UMass-Lowell (Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
London (Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 6 p.m.
Kamloops (Lafreniere) @ 8 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Larkspur time.
Bowman burned through at least a bakers dozen of skilled-heavy-200 plus over 6 foot bottom 6 forwards in his reign in Chicago. These players were a huge reason they won 3 Cups. Most of these forwards were home grown and played multiple years in the NHL. Samanski and a couple other forwards Jarventie-Poulin that Bowman has brought into Bakersfield fits his MO. What doesn’t fit Bowman MO is 3 smaller skilled and NHL ready Hutson-Howard-Savoie forwards all applying at the same time. Savoie does PK Hutson may perk up a few G.M’s but he doesn’t hold great value maybe a throw in with Magpie. So for that very reason The Iceman gets dealt and he rips it off the cover for years to come with his new team.
I think Bowman knows the upside that Howard brings. He may be smaller, but I don’t think that’s why the offense wasn’t coming, it was the fact he was shoehorned into the bottom 6. There’s a big hole for 2RW that they have tried to fill with Kap, Roslovic and to some extent Savoie. If KK deems Howard to be sufficiently seasoned next year, I could see Howard settling into that spot. If it works, then you’d have an extreme value contract without having to move assets out.
I see Hutson as the likely guy out as the sweetener in a trade, as his skills and role are duplicated by Savoie, who also plays a decent 200 ft game and features on the PK.
Don’t get me wrong, I actually think Hutson could have a future as a 4th line utility player who is able to bring an ounce of offense, but there’s so many players bubbling under right now, I could see him getting lost in the shuffle.
Have to completely disagree with you, Bowman is not shipping out Howard, he was a targeted Bowman addition.
Howard ain’t no Celebrini.
Celebrini ain’t no Buster Douglas or something.
I was in Reno that weekend and if you feed a redneck enough double Black Russians well that dumbass is going to be loose with his bank roll and bet a undisclosed amount on 44-1 Buster.
Nor are any other young players
but, but, but they both won the Hobey Baker – oh, right, Celebrini won it at 17 and Howard at 20.
Bowman and K.K seem to have a failure to communicate.
Bowman targeted opportunity. Finding big guys who have questionable NHL skill is not hard. Finding NHL skill big or small is a lot harder and this is what he did. If that big skilled forward was there and available he would of grabbed him Im sure.
The fact that Bowman turned up this much talent is impressive. I imagine those that do not make are still valuable trade chips. I also think his team is still out looking, and yes they would prefer more size if they can find it.
Excited to have the Condors back in action.
Tomkins tonight and Ungar tomorrow.
Leppanen will play tonight but not tomorrow.
Carfagna and Leppanen are both “real” – Carfagna much younger but both players to watch. Carfagna/Akey really stepped up as a nice top pairing through the injuries.
Let’s not forget, Marjala is almost PPG and he is no longer solely reliant on the PP like earlier this season.
From the worst defensive d-man I had ever seen in the AHL for 3 weeks to a very strong 2-way d-man with solid rush defence and the team’s top dman in a 2 month span. The development of this player is something we rarely see.
I think he knew how to defend, but in the league he was familair with entering this season. Adjustment from Euro to North American hockey is difficult (both ways), so his true defensive acumen is probably what we see now. Gaps need to be tighter on smaller ice, etc.
This makes a lot of sense! That would actually go another small step in restoring my faith in the Oiler’s scouting department if this is what they saw going in, rather than him unexpectedly popping halfway through the season.
Chaulk (and Keith Gretzky) speak about a 6 week adjustment period for any player coming over from Europe and it seems they were bang on with Leppanen and that timeline.
With that said he was REALLY bad early – zero positional structure in the d-zone (roving and roaming all over), VERY soft in the d-zone (including a weak stick), contact poor pinches in the neutral zone and at the offensive blue.
It was also bleeding his transition and offensive game – he could barely make a transition pass.
He was completely lot for 3 weeks.
It didn’t help the Cam Dineen, his partner for those three weeks, was equally awful.
Where Lep got to in 2 months is astounding to me.
Here is hoping this injury doesn’t cause a regression and he can pick up close to where he left off.
Not sure it was discussed here but it was so refreshing to hear Frank Seravalli clearly say on Bobs show that the Oilers issues “begin and end with Darnell Nurse”. If you can’t anchor a second pairing at 9.25M and Jake Walman sits behind you at 3LD making 7 your team is effectively crippled. A 9+ second pairing guy should be posting All World numbers regardless of partners. The fact that he and Walman are lucky to break even making over 16 is catastrophic.
Bob doesn’t make mistakes. That info got out there (and then replayed the next day) because they want it out there. The heat will ratchet up on this guy so he considers all options, like Dougie Hamilton.
The only move that matters is finding a place he’ll waive to. Now maybe he’ll have that conversation.
Can you imagine if they can move this guy for a decent 5 million dollar 2RD and have 4 million to then play around with?
He’s still 10th in salary among defense jammed in with Olympians like Werenski, McAvoy, Makar, Seider. And of course Bouchard. And he can’t even beat out Spencer Stastney to play on the PK.
I predict he won’t waive. I wouldn’t.
I blame management for that contract. This blog had a good forecast of the cost, with the bridge, etc.
Hope Nurse doesn’t get media bodied by the hamlet of Edmonton on his later years.
Walman should have a lot more to give, I didn’t mind the contract when it was signed. I feel like the bet was that Ekholm would slide down to be the 3LD and one of nurse or walman would play 1LD. His seemingly fragile health has me concerned though, and I wonder if he may be heading for the cliff sooner than anticipated. That would be a killer amount of dead cap if one of those two can’t step up to top pairing in the next year or two.
Nurse’s NMC changes to a 10-team no trade list on July 1, 2027 though, so perhaps a move can be made at that time. Getting there will be painful though if he and Walman don’t rebound… Walman has a full NMC until June 15, 2030.
Three months ago, the Oilers problems allegedly began and ended with Stuart Skinner. I think Frank was also on that bandwagon. Frank depends on clicks and views like most everyone in the content business.
The problem is not any one thing.
The Oilers problem is organizational alignment from top to bottom. There is no magic deus ex machina fix.
The Oilers have an $11m third line that hasn’t pissed a drop offensively all season.
So that’s 20% of the cap that’s performing below expectations.
“begin and end with Darnell Nurse” Well if that was true, just move him. Oh but his contract! And Walmans contract! Sounds like the problem “begins and ends” with whoever is handing out the contracts no?
McDavid just freed up 4 million/2years (looking forward) to fool around with. Maybe they can sign another Mangiapane?
Sure, can’t really argue but what about the fact that McDavid/Drai are barely breaking even at 5 on 5 this season (51%)?