Josh Samanski has emerged from the fog of spring 2025 signings to become a player of importance. In joining college kids Ike Howard and Quinn Hutson as recalls from Bakersfield, Samanski has jumped ahead of a substantial list of prospects. He also appears to have won the confidence of coach Kris Knoblauch, at least in the short term:
- Samanski 5GP, 9:17TOI, 2.58 pts-60, 57% goals, 60%X
- Howard 28GP, 9:45TOI, 1.1 pts-60, 36% goals, 43%X
- Hutson 4GP, 7:59 TOI, 1.58 pts-60, 33% goals, 35%X
Small, small sample but Samanski is on the better side of the entire five-on-five package listed above. He’s getting to the puck offensively, he’s on the right side of the puck defensively, and he’s performing well enough to get nine minutes a night five-on-five from the hardest screw who ever walked a turn at Shawshank. That has value. In the five games Samanski has played, his spot on the left-wing depth chart is worth discussing.
- Podkolzin 5GP, 14:17TOI, 1.68 pts-60, 83% goals, 58%X
- Nuge 5GP, 13:28, 0.89 pts-60, 38%goals, 34%X
- Samanski 5GP, 9:17TOI, 2.58 pts-60, 57% goals, 60%X
- Mangiapane 5GP, 7:54, 0.00 pts-60, 0-2 goals, 31%X
If we ran those numbers blind, without the names attached, would you guess Samanski correctly? Maybe you would have, but would the average fan? Samanski’s performance, in a narrow view, exposes the veteran pretenders on this roster (bigly!). I don’t know if he’s going to be heading back to Bakersfield after the Olympic break, but do know that Mangiapane should be headed out before him based on performance. Let’s look at the top skill fellows in Bakersfield this season:
The Condors are rocknrolla up front, with James Hamblin sliding in for Samanski during the recall. Ike Howard belongs in a higher league (please read this) right now, and Hutson did well in Edmonton too. I know playing all of Samanski, Howard and Hutson is impossible, let alone Jarventie. I do think it’s worth asking this question: How many veteran Oilers forwards have more torque than these young Condors? It isn’t as many as you’d like.
On the Lowdown today, I’ll ask Kevin McCurdy that question and we’ll talk about the Olympics. Plus injuries are already the theme as MLB training camps open and we’ll chat about the deadline, too. Sports 1440 and You Tube, noon to 2pm today.
Oilers can’t afford to ignore Ike Howard as a potential goal-scoring solution
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7036237/2026/02/11/oilers-ike-howard-scoring-analysis/
At some point, the organization has to get on the same page.
Hate to say it, but I think this quote captures the bigger problem. Bowman is retooling the roster in a big way, adding lots of youth to the mix, but they’re not being given a shot at the higher levels. I agree that Howard needs to improve in outscoring, but when he’s rolling over AHL opposition I think you could argue that more time there won’t be very productive. He needs to struggle a bit to know what to work on.
I would say that KK’s inability to help these young guys establish themselves in the NHL has been the most disappointing part of the year imo. As you mention, Howard’s results with McDavid/Draisaitl weren’t bad. What if Howard got to develop with one of the best in the game and Hyman could move down to try and jumpstart the third line? Play Hyman with Samanski on the other side and see if you can develop two promising young players at the same time? Maybe give them more than 10 minutes together to figure it out?
If we had tried this and stuck with it 20 games ago, maybe we feel better going into the final stretch. As it is, it feels like the team has no identity, results are trending down just as they should be picking up, and we still have no answers to the problems that have been there since the start of the year
KK has made a decision that he will not trust a rookie until they’ve learned to be defensively responsible on a depth line. It’s his orientation. Given this Savoie is on line 3, not playing w/skill and Howard, when he was here was mostly on line 4, but played some on line 3.
The issue with that configuation 22-28-53 is you had 2 guys not very strong defensively with a rookie responsible for being their conscious. Again a bad deployment of the roster. In the meantime, the coach is running his top players into the ground.
Samanski will be back in Bako once Rico is activated. That leaves 1 rookie being broken in, a risk the coach is willing to take since he’s all-in on winning and is missing the forrest for the trees. KK will finish the season, but I hope he’s canned this summer – he’s not a strategic thinker with the resources available.
Good post. Knoblauch’s calling card when he came in was connecting with the players, moved his desk from the back to the front sort of thing
That is important, but I see this group as needing a stronger leader. The 80’s team had that and also had Messier, Lowe
This leadership group is quieter, the team can get moody, and is open to being swayed by current happenings. Maybe Knoblauch is that, but it should show more in the results and what we see. Maybe that coach isn’t out there right now, but I’d be looking for him if I was Stan
They aren’t as far away from what they could be as it seems. This season has many teams out of sorts. There are just a couple of things needed to tie it all together
I like both Mcdavid and especially Dria as leaders. But I do think a fun/ positive energy leader could do wonders. Especially in games where puck luck isn’t friendly.
The team lost much of that over the last two years. Hard to bring that type of player in and expect there to be instant chemistry. Hopefully it can grow from within. Maybe Samanski/ Howard Fredrick ( once he elevates) can build that part of the TEAM. Walman too.
My take is that a coach that is more of a leader would be good. I look at Maurice and Cooper, and they have a different vibe, and I think it is reflected in their players. Calm and confident, a bit cocky. They take a lot of media attention, which can give some cover for the players when needed
Kind of what Sather was like. What I call a bigger personality. It’s also important for dealing with the refs. And making a public stink that gets heard when things are getting out of line with how stuff is being called
I could sum it up by saying that Knoblauch has a great heart and demeanor for young players not old enough for the NHL. Perhaps a teacher for development more than a leader of pros. I’m not sure it’s ideal for the Oilers core and the world’s highest pro league
That’s ok of course, but not what’s needed to me
Yes for sure that’s critical. I think perhaps Coffey was a coach the players respected and would go through a wall for. Maybe not a ra ra guy but someone who made every player better.
knob is certainly not that guy. I would hope knob could lead by making intelligent adjustments and earn player trust that way but that doesn’t appear to be the case.
My man Peter Laviolette. Based entirely on the one video I watched of him in 24/7 lol
Next camp has to be a more settled deal. Bowman can’t bring in a whack of players again, they need to make decisions on who they like and give them the season to settle in. You either believe in the youth, or you don’t and move on, get someone else
They can’t play 4 rookies right? Or can they if they are ready? Spread them out in the line up and teach them. The cap isn’t available to bring in established quality vets, if they could even find them, so use what you have
The same old same old, chaotic camp, playing the vets who aren’t getting it done. It hasn’t worked again, too many mistakes and lack of push, the team not cohesive
Gregor’s ON piece yesterday shows that Knoblauch’s TOI deployment is spot on with the other west teams that are decent or better. It’s not a lack of opportunity, so what is the problem stopping the Oilers bottom 6 from contributing enough? It shouldn’t be a mystery to hockey folks that know what they are doing
I think the unique problem the oilers have is losing a ton of guys between the ages of 24-28. Broberg, McLeod, Holloway all leaving means you are left with just veterans and rookies. In my opinion, that gap necessitates a shift in focus to developing new players – every player brought along now pays two-fold down the road in filling a roster spot without bleeding more cap and assets. As long as you have two vets and one rookie on a line, we should have the firepower to win games despite the wobbles. KK’s lack of faith in the prospects is going to limit our future results just as much as it limits our currents results
Yes, they need to get Howard, Samanski and Jarventie to the NHL as soon as possible so they can fill that mid 20’s gap. And Hutson if he can do enough – for me he has to carve out a distinct helpful role
Just being a ‘good’ player isn’t enough at his size. Savoie also needs to find something for the same reason. Of the guys I mentioned, I think Howard has a higher offensive ceiling, the other two are NHL size. Every player needs to bring something needed to the table, or you get passengers
Savoie has stone hands like Todd Marchant he’ll be a little jitterbug scoring 15-16 goals a year. As for Howard he’s a 20 plus scorer rotting away in Bakersfield because of a stubborn coach.
I don’t see Savoie as stone hands at all. I think he has great hands in tight as well as making quick passes and one on one. I do think his shot is below average from limited looks.
There was nothing wrong with Todd Marchant except missing what seemed like 50 breakaways a year. Todd surprisingly scored one of biggest goals in Oiler history. Savoie is most noticeable and dynamic on the PK just as Todd was. I don’t see Savoie getting PP 1 time. I also don’t see a poor man’s Brayden point in Savoie.
Before we throw another young player over the transom let’s give him a chance. I like the fact that he knows where to go, is not afraid to get to tough areas, and actually has pretty deft hands as he’s scored on multiple deflections this season.
Just because you have stone hands doesn’t mean you can’t have a long career. I think Savoie will high mark out as a Connor Garland-Paul Byron type. As for the iceman he can score 30 but sadly I see him traded as he’ll never get a sniff at PP1 or apparently top 6 time under K.K.
Connor Garland has two season one 20 goals and two seasons one 50 points – that higher than 15-16 goals.
He also may see PP time in the future – he’s in his rookie season and Nuge/Hyman are in their 30s.
Savoie has scored/produced at every level after settling in – he’s in his rookie NHL season and, when he was with Drai, the point production was starting to come.
Great post Finn fann. Agree on everything
Your points on Howard are bang on he needed a push on his call-up. Putting Walman in the Leon spot on the PP-1 was disappointing. Howard was built for that spot yet we missed out on at least 6 of Howard beauty one-timers. K.K is stunting Howard’s growth and this pisses me off seeing a obvious talented prospect getting the shaft.
How many games are you prepared to lose during this re build commitment as the youth become real NHL players ? Are you ok with risking making the playoffs ? The youth tell you when they are ready to step up to the next level and you cant rush it .AKA Savoie
Well you only have two choices. You can’t say we need entry level contracts because of cap and then not use those entry level contracts!
If that was not going to be the case then huge mistakes letting Holloway, Mcleod, Broberg go and signing Maggie, Walman, Henry, ect.
Are young guys are also a mix of small players. Three top guys are: Savoie, Howard and Hutson who are all skilled but very small and get knocked around.
I am shocked at this point that we have not been able to build around 3 superstars? Some teams have none.
Hyman- excellent move, compliments Mcdavid at a good price.
Pods- great move, compliments Drai at a great price.
Nuge- top notch 3C we have been looking for forever that the coach has not found yet.
Ek and Bouch- top end top pairing
What an incredible base right there. The other positions should be easy with exceptions of a top goalie. Closest we have had was Dadbot a long time ago. Mike Smith would have been a good choice but at the end of his career and was fighting injuries.
What more can Howard do to earn a real call up? He’s consistently been one of the top scorers in the AHL, and he’s outscoring to the tune of 60%. He’s shown flashes of offense plus some unexpected playmaking ability. He just needs time to put everything together at the next level and the coach won’t give it to him.
As for how many games I’d be prepared to lose – I’m not sure we lose many more games than we have already this year. There are players throughout the lineup underperforming – I’d rather have a younger player learning the ropes than a fading veteran in that spot, as one offers hope for improvement through the season while the other does not (see Janmark, Mangiapane, Henrique…)
Why are we so sure this is causing losses? Maybe it will actually help win?
Are the veterans being moved out of the lineup playing mistake free hockey that a change to a younger player will hurt the team?
If Samanski goes in of Janmark and Howard in for Lazar or Mang or Henrique and Nuge is moved down to spread the skill and add depth (with Howard up) why is is certain that will add to losses?
If Savoie and Howard play with Drai and Podz/Kap play with Samanski or Nuge, why is that a move that will cause losses?
You might want to count up the scoring of the Vet’s 3rd and 4th lines before you make assertions about the abilities of the youth. The Vet’s are not producing and doubtful get any better whereas the the younger will likely improve.
You make a strong case. But the idea that Howard can help the big club is not news.
The question about org alignment is more interesting to me, because it raises questions about org patience.
You’ve written that coaches are hired to be fired. The NHL makes it look that way, and the Oilers seem to among the worst offenders. They’ve also got a poor record viz GM hires/fires.
I suggest that the alignment you, among others, are looking for depends at least a little on longevity and continuity of tenure. Going through stuff. And especially hard stuff. Right now I’m liking the TBL as an organization and as a winning club. GM Brisebois and Coach Cooper have been with the org since summer of 2010. Almost 16 years. They’ve won Cups. They’ve missed the playoffs. They’ve bowed out in the first round in the past two seasons. Lots of time to figure each other —and their team— out. This year they look to be the best in the East. Success comes with talent. I think it probably also comes with trust and patience.
Oilers have talent. From top (GM, coaches) to bottom (rookies, AHL tweeners bouncing up and down from the AHL). So far, as a org, they haven’t shown they have patience. I’m hoping GM SB and Coach K are given the time (to fail as well as succeed) that allows trust and alignment to occur. But, given the impatience in Oilerville, I’m not optimistic.
Keep your powder dry. Indeed.
I agree Howard seems like the one who should be put in a position to succeed in the top lines. If so, I suggest it’s LW with McDavid and Hyman as the second line with Podz on LW is consistently playing up to their potential. However, this doesn’t seem like a fit with the culture of the team – right or wrong – where rookies work their way up the lineup. Not sure if this is player imposed or coach imposed.
My suggestion within said culture is you put Mangi on McDavid’s LW with Hyman on RW and give them till the trade deadline to figure it out. They will either figure it out, Mangi’s numbers improve his trade value, or status quo and he continues to blow it requiring giving up asset(s) to trade him. 2 outta 3 ain’t bad? It seems like everyone turned on Mangi real quick compared to others who have struggled I.e., Brown. Perhaps it’s his Calgary Flames face? 🙂
From what I read, McDavid was instrumental in convincing him to sign with the Oil so IMO he should be accountable for this being a success or not.
Elevating Mangi allows Nuge to go to 3C with a plethora of strong options for vets and rookies (including Howard) in the bottom two lines.
If Mangi/McDavid fails then it’s next man up (preferably not Nuge).
Howard is one of the best offensive players in the AHL, end stop.
From watching the games, Howard is busting his ass developing his “away from the puck game” and is improving – he still has work to do battling on the defensive half boards and committing to that battle (as opposed to trying to chip of an offensive opportunity and failing to clear).
With that said, he can continue to develop these skills in the NHL and he can do it in high leverage minutes in the top 6.
The bottom six is a known issue for the Oilers – scoring and preventing goals.
Well, if Howard is in the top 6, one of Nuge, Podz and Kap are in the bottom six strengthening that bottom six in all areas.
This isn’t about “Howard being better than Podz or Kap or Nuge”, its about Howard having a skill-set that could work in the top 6 better than the third line and the replacement on the third line being a very good NHL player that has middle six skills.
Its time!
Summarizing!
Lewandowski picked up his 13th goal of the season.
Nicholl was denied soup and so shall have to subsist on dried kelp. He was back at C for this match.
Prospecting takes a break until Freya’s Day.
A bit of a repost for some statistical evidence at the work SB+KK are doing to get this team younger and some reps.
4 players played their first NHL game: Samanski, Howard, Clattenburg and Tomasek.
4 players had less than 25 NHL games played and have seen the ice: Savoie, Regula, Hutson and Philp.
Stastney had less than 100 at the start of the season.
Emberson had 106 games played to start the season.
The former US National development program teammates are showing promise on the back end.
Savoie is an NHL player.
Howard is dominating the AHL and is showing he can play in the NHL and is getting better with each promotion.
Hutson and Samanski have shown flashes during their moments in the sun.
I’m not sure it is coincidental that the Oilers called up Samanski to play NHL games right before the Olympics to set him up for success on the big stage. He is being granted runway to play the game at the highest level over a 4 week span. What he does with it may determine how the rest of his season unfolds. AHL or NHL. I know many are upset with the performance of SB + KK… but it appears they had a plan to get younger and ease a number of these players into NHL action. Whether it pays off this season or next is yet to be determined. I like their bets in this department.
Rich Winter, Pick’s agent, tells Gregor than in his conversation’s with Bowman “Stan isn’t sure Pick isn’t #1” – OK Rich!
“There is not enough evidence to suggest the other guys are better. They haven’t won 9 games in the playoffs, have they”.
Ok Rich.
It would be great to have a coach that could stir in the rookies and still connect with the vets. Like Woody, before he reverted back to what every coach does and over play McDrai.
Seems once “winning it all” comes into conversation, development goes out the window.
The stretch drive and playoffs I understand, but there’s 60 other bleeding games to build and develop, as well as win.
m
Can’t delete this very poor attempt to link to an old comment
Woody relied on his vets just as much (and he did so in the AHL as well).
Woody brought some players with him from Bakersfield, and he was absolutely committed to players like Vincent Desharnais. He increased the talent pool by doing so.
This is true, he did – he brought in his 28 year old rookie who took the minutes of his 21 year old…….
Haha. On the day Woodcroft was hired to coach Edmonton, Broberg and Markus Niemelainen were recalled from Bakersfield. He was viewed as a LHD at that time, the idea of moving him to RH side came later on. I can’t blame him for playing Desharnais, that was a fantastic early run by the big man.
Great thread by Dom:
https://x.com/domluszczyszyn/status/2021604080024461393?s=46
How the hell has Jarventie not been called up for a cup of coffee, feels like a mistake.
I don’t disagree, in fact, I agree but Jareventie is in a cluster of forwards that were/are banging down the door – tough to argue against the NHL reps for any of Hutson, Howard or Samanski, right.
WIth that said, I was fairly adamant that Pickard needed to be assigned well before they finally did and Jarventie should have been called up for the last 3-4 games at, at least to start, given Janmark a night off.
He’s an RFA so will be qualified and, hopefully, he re-signs. From accounts, he likes the org and is committed and I suspect he gives it at least one more season before he heads back home until the Oilers lose his rights.
Coach picks a rookie staff, then wants all the leeway he denies to rookie players.
His job is to lead with systems, plays, structure that suits the strengths of the team. To adapt, improvise, find chemistry, set expectations to deliver.
He needs to play both the short game and the long game which includes development.
He has to show up for playoffs with a team ready to go. Goalies that trust their defence cause defence actually does their job. Common mistakes eliminated from the game plan. Players trusted to deliver because they have been held accountable. Rookie players brought up to speed. Bottom six that produces results, and gets talent and ice to deliver. A second power play unit…..
Coach is accountable for this readiness.
I see him either unable (doesn’t have skills or experience) or unwilling (stubborn)
He better get busy because there is absolutely no way, no way the team will just idle into or up to playoffs this year. Zero chance of keeping powder dry. They will spend, they will go for it. Knoblauch better be ready.
Bowman has done a decent job. One big mistake in Mangiapane. Frederic fooled everybody, he should have been better.
But Bowman dug up a lot of prospects. They cannot all make it so try them out, make your choice then move the others to bring in an NHL player. Don’t stop, go round up some more and do it over.
This year they were smaller, skilled. Fine, opportunity presents what it presents. Every year there are more, look for some heavy players, keep looking, keep graduating.
Coach has to do his part. Another situation he can sit and wait for “better players” to arrive. In this case you have to develop them so get busy and get it done.
Naturally they will have to trade the best prospects available which only makes sense. It good there’s a large number to choose from.
Frederic did NOT fool everybody. There were lots of people here (myself included) who were critical of both the trade and (especially) the contract in real time.
Yeah I think he pretty much only fooled Stan. I can’t imagine the process by which he got the rest of the management team in support of that one. Probably the same logic I remember from Rishaug “they see him as the long term 3C*. And if you can lock up your gritty, 40 point 3C at 3.8M that’s pretty reasonable”
*had barely ever played C and was coming off a 20 point season
in no way did Frederic fool everybody. I thought spending your assets at the trade deadline for an injured player playing badly was a fireable offence. Who knows if a contributor added at the deadline puts them over the edge.
Doubling down was just stupid, I’m a GM because I played hockey before and my Dad immortalized my last name type moves. That and the Walman contract were just bad. Paint yourself into the corner..
Why are we saying left wing depth chart? Isn’t Samanski a center? Isn’t that the whole reason he’s here? If they wanted another winger they’d have kept Howard or tried Hutson or maybe Jarventie.
He also plays LW. In the event they’re fortunate enough to acquire a legit third line center .
In terms of faceoffs/60 over the past 5 games, Samanski ranks 3rd. However he, Lazar and Roslovic are all in the same zip code, so safe to say they’ve been sharing the 3C and 4C positions.
Draisaitl: 53.90
Lazar: 48.04 (4 gp)
Samanski: 34.63
McDavid: 30.36
Roslovic: 30.35
Samanski has won a tidy 59.3% of his draws, including 6/11 in the OZ, 6/11 in the NZ and 4/5 in the DZ.
Hes not here though, he’s been assigned to the AHL and, as of right now, there is no cap room for him and, in fact, a current roster player needs to go in order to activate Henrique.
Seems like we can have our Cake and eat it too!
Move Magpie. cough up a pick if you have to. Drop Nuge to 3C and flank him w kids. Put Ike in the top six. doesn’t have to be lights out as this is about balance across lines. Press box Rico and Janmark at will.
Still enough season to pull that together. No room for Jarvi this year but both Rico and the Janitor need to be gone by 2026-27, and Stan’s 2025 summer acquisitions stand ready to populate the bottom six.
Yes, focus should be on the 3 line and getting it up to 50% GF. I realized the other day they’ve tried about 5 less than ideal guys in that spot. Henrique, Tomasek, Frederic, Savoie, Nuge, now Samanski. We shouldn’t have gone into the season with no plan in such an important position.
Keep Samanski there but if you don’t trust him Nuge should be there permanently. We have the best center depth in the NHL if they choose to use it.
They will need a winger to play with Connor & Zach if Nuge is moving down to 3c or if they trade for a 3c. Howard has to be part of any deal for any worthwhile acquisition. I just don’t see any way around it.
Yeah they definitely need either a good center or winger. Im ok with Howard being part of the package as we still have Hutson and Savoie
I think Howard may be bait as well. However I also think we’ll regret the fact that he never got a look in the top-6. He’s going to go somewhere else and pop.
it is critical to point out that bowman acquired howard and hutson… he did not aquire savoie.
I mean others have said this better but what if Howard is that winger?
Has anyone told the coach?
Maybe a team values Samanski near Howard?
Roslovic, Savoie, Howard all options to play wing with McDavid/Hyman. Shit, why not Hutson or even Jarventie both with 2-way acumen and real skill.
Finding a winger for McDavid/Hyman, while in practice now quite as easy as it sounds, really shouldn’t be that hard.
Yes, I acknowledge that minutes and minutes against tough competition playing there would entail but these are skilled and smart hockey players – all of them plus defensive players in the AHL but for maybe Howard and he’s not terrible.
A win for those that watch the Condors and lauded Samanski, opined he deserves a shot and suggested its not out of the realm of possibility that he could handle NHL 3C right now.
Sheltered, yes, but Samanski covered the bet at 3C by number and by eye. Sample small but it should grow.
He deserves to be on this team post-Olympic break.
Rico will be activated and, as of now, they need to send another player down in order to activate Rico – if that is Janmark, I think (but would need to check) they have enough cap to call up Samamski – out of LTIR usage, Samanski’s cap hit drops to his normal (apx $900K) with needing to accept for bonuses (Howard as well).
I’d hope Samanski is given that deserved runway. With Rico as backup when needed.
This makes sense, it’s just not in the coach’s DNA to trust a rookie – even over a poorly performing vet (Janmark).
Oh, I don’t think it will happen……
I do wonder who they will send down if they can’t trade Mang prior – Janmark? Mang? Lazar? Savoie?
Maybe someone else goes on LTIR and the can continues to get kicked down the road.
Frederic is a candidate as well.
Frederic has a full NMC, he cannot be sent to the AHL.
Playing those 3 isn’t impossible – it is in fact optimal deployment of the current options.
The issue is they have the wrong coach.
Yup.
Prospecto!
Nicholl toils again tonight, joined by Lewandowski.
The former has dented twine in three straight games, no mean feat considering he is not really a volume shooter. Nicholl is averaging 2.3 shots/game this year–to compare, he had 1.7 in last year’s breakout season. (More opportunity, more shots.) His SH% both seasons is >18.0 though.
Lewandowski authored his own goal streak (4) recently, giving him 12 for the season. He doesn’t shoot much more than Nicholl, with 2.7 shots/game this year and a 10.6 SH%.
London (Nicholl) @ 4:30 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 6 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Ashmont time.