This is a list of ‘certain’ Oilers in September 2015. We were waiting for the backup goaltender, the fourth-line RW and one or two extra forwards. It didn’t work out as planned, with Peter Chiarelli forcing the issue in a couple of areas and Todd McLellan waiting for the opportunity to reset the roster. Here are the lines and pairings for opening night 2015:
- Taylor Hall-Connor McDavid-Anton Slepyshev
- Benoit Pouliot-Nuge-Teddy Purcell
- Lauri Korpiksoki-Anton Lander-Nail Yakupov
- Luke Gazdic-Mark Letestu-Matt Hendricks
- Andrej Sekera-Mark Fayne
- Oscar Klefbom-Justin Schultz
- Griffin Reinhart-Eric Gryba
- Cam Talbot (Anders Nilsson)
- Not dressed: Andrew Ference, Rob Klinkhammer, Brandon Davidson
As you can see, quite a few things changed in the final couple of weeks leading up to the start of the season. Now, this year’s team has fewer holes than the 2015 team, but when we say “Matt Savoie is a lock for the second line” or “there’s no chance Ike Howard makes this team” it’s important to remember there are many events to come once training camp starts. So, with that in mind, here are my ‘certain’ Oilers for 2025-26 opening night:
Center: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Adam Henrique
Wingers: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Trent Frederic, Andrew Mangiapane, Vasily Podkolzin, Kasperi Kapanen
Defense: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman, Brett Kulak
Goalies: Stuart Skinner, Calvin Pickard
That’s 16 of 23, although many of us believe the team will carry 22. What does that mean? Well, there’s more uncertainty than normal for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. And you know what else? I’m not sure Skinner and Pickard are ‘certain’ Oilers at this time. Hold on to your ass!
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk to Kevin McCurdy about the ‘certain’ Oilers and what may come between now and October skies. Noon to 2pm today, Sports 1440.
I have two articles at The Athletic you may be interested in. The first is about Ike Howard comparables and the second details training camp stories over the last decade. I hope you enjoy them!
New for The Athletic: Oilers last 10 training camps were wild and crazy. Your blood pressure may rise, but this trip through the past is anything but boring.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6536956/2025/08/06/edmonton-oilers-training-camp-stories/
I remember Yakapov having good numbers playing along side McDavid before Nail bizarre injury. I think the Hyman-McDavid-Howard line is going to be a handful. How many goals will Howard score from the hash marks?
Plenty. The question is does he score them in Edmonton or Bakersfield?
I think it depends how soon Howard picks up NHL hockey. Talented forwards that don’t play hard defensively (I’m not saying he won’t or can’t) don’t last on top teams. They bounce around as teams look for offense and/or hope they will be better
Sather found Gretzky (and it didn’t take a decade) two wingers that could play against anybody, any style, and still produce. That took eyes off Wayne by shot or by mouth. We hope Howard is that, but very soon he’ll have to figure out that he doesn’t have a talent advantage anymore, and it’s really hard to be a good solid player at the top of the range
Anyone playing with Connor or Leo has to be there to augment them
I think Ike’s extreme confidence will work well with McD. Most good players do not do well with him due to a lack of confidence. Also when you see Leon and McD backcheck their ass off sure as hell he will too. Can’t believe there was a time where the season started with Ty Rattie on the top line and Mark Fayne as top pairing D; and we are worried about anyone on this team?? Only question mark is goaltending and let’s hope the main problem was their coach.
They do it sometimes. Others not. Their wings need to be the conscious
Leon +32 last year. He did it allot! No player is 100% mistake free every shift of 82 games. Leon was one of the best defensive players in the NHL last year while still putting up phenomenal numbers offensively
This is true, McDavid is not on that level of consistency, in particular late in the SCF this past season.
What will our Pk look like? I do hope Savoie and others get the green light for 2 on 1’s SH. We are missing out on 10 goals a year by being super ultra conservative when killing penalties. We have the personal to make it a weapon. I would tap into these potential resources.
lol – last years PK couldn’t prevent our zone from becoming a shooting gallery for long stretches … and you want them to be cherry picking for shorties?
Good luck with that.
Yes they need to keep the opposition from having 5 forwards. Thank God gully gone our PP was stale and our PK tactically was beyond sad. I do think Savoie has a handful of SH goals in him. If he’s given the green light like Brad Marchand has his whole career would be beneficial in my opinion.
Gully did not run the PK, Mark Stuart did. And he is back doing it again this season while also picking up Coffey’s overall responsibilities with the D corp.
Thanks. I’m obviously talking out of my ass if for some strange reason I didn’t know Stuart ran the PK. Anyhow I would like to see some speed on the P.K AKA- Marchant-Cogliano this is where we miss McLeod. Give Savoie lots of P.K minutes as he’ll see open ice and let’s see if he has any tricks up his sleeve.
I guess Matheson is wrong too:
“he leaves a huge hole on the Edmonton Oilers staff because he’s run the NHL’s most lethal power play.”
Running hot when it’s easy
Running cold otherwise
12th best PP with Connor-Leon-McDavid-Bouchard-RNH this is not good enough. It should be top 5 at least and this is factoring in luck. Teams adapt the only time the PP seemed effective is if the play became scrambled but from a set position teams had us figured out.
I believe the PP was down from its norm but still around 5-6 in the league until all the forwards on it were out for most of the last few weeks of the season. The PP with the players mentioned above, was not near 12th.
He’s normally quite wrong.
Stuart has talked about using Savoie on the PK – his quickness will be an asset. I’m sure he’ll start as PK2 (or 3).
If we can get 2 years of PK 2 along with 18-20 goals a year that’s pretty good value seeing what McLeod is fetching.
Having players that can PK effectively and have hands is a problem for a PP for sure. Gretzky mentioned it, he had 73 SHG, 3.65 per season
If they didn’t have to run Connor so hard all the time I’d like to see him do it more as he would be a huge worry. He did PK far more in playoffs than reg season, but at about 24 min per game I think they wore him out. Barkov was Florida’s highest F at 20.47 per game, Bennett 17.5
We were so fun to watch in the 80’s that if a game was stale you actually didn’t mind when the Oilers took a penalty because the ice would open up for Gretzky-Kurri-Tikk-Pat Hughes.
Connor McDavids upcoming contract decision will be the biggest difference maker in the Oilers winning or not winning the cup.In my opinion.
McDavid has to have real honest assessment. Can such a top heavy team with such separation between top contracts to bottom contacts; can this type of team win a cup?
If he goes for 16m, can the team win the cup?
If he sticks at 12.5 for 2 years, how much of a difference maker would
What if he just matches Leon’s number for 3-4 years?
I have a feeling that he knows regardless of how hard he plays, it won’t be enough unless he has enough supporting cast. He has a sharp hockey mind. What is the best number, or the best probability to win?
Great question.
I was thinking about the team’s window, and feel the Oilers’ best chances at Stanley are June 2027 and June 2028.
Reason being Savoie and Howard will have 2-3 years of NHL experience and both should still be on affordable contracts.
If McDavid matches Draisaitl’s $14M for 3-4 seasons, the Oilers can leverage that value along with the kids’ ELC values to add a meaningful player at the deadline in both ’27 and ’28.
That of course implies that they keep their powder dry in 2026. In fact you could argue that trading away Ekholm in 2026 could provide us with the draft capital to go for broke in ’27 & ’28.
My guess is he does similar to what he did last time. He could certainly get the maximum rate of 20% of the cap (20.8m/yr) next season, but last deal he settled in the 15% range more or less tro allow the eam to build around him. That puts him next year at approx 15.75-16.25m/yr or thereabouts. Term is another question – I don’t have a clue if he would go for max term of 8 yrs, but I am hoping!
Again for ridicule… if it’s for max term of 8 years I think we’re looking at a contract of $144M.
Break it down anyway you like but I’ll start with $17 for the first 4, and $19 for the last 4. He should, and deservedly so, be the highest paid player for the next decade. We are truly lucky to have him.
That’s roughly $250M in career earning (without sponsorship etc.) which has a nice ring to it. If he’s still in Oilers silks by then I’d expect the Crosby treatment in any contract(s) thereafter.
I think that as well. He’s made 92.78M so far, not all players are about squeezing every penny out, especially those that want to win Cups. At least that’s what Winters says
The big equalizer is when the cap applies to the playoffs. That gambit has been the biggest hurdle the Oilers and others have faced
These finals for forwards the 5 at 50% GF were all role and secondary players. All Strengths there were the same but only 4. Bowman made changes he liked and was able to to help the top 6. You can’t replace elite talent, most Cup teams have those players. The Panthers look different without the Ekblad scam leading to being able to get Jones and Marchand. That will be gone
Agree with JC below… good question.
I’ll throw myself out there for ridicule and suggest $17M AAV for 4 years. Years 1 and 2 @ $15M, with 3 and 4 @ $19M. Anything less is a steal.
This little difference is substantial with the salary cap increase projections coming to attain good supporting players at the deadline.
McDavid needs to sign an 8 year deal that makes him the highest paid player for the next couple years and is a bargain for the team after that. That’s how you win.
Almost every other player in his position does this. If he doesn’t then he is not for the team and has one foot out the door. One bad season and he has an excuse to leave like a mercenary.
8 years or trade him. Can’t believe I’m saying this after 2 straight finals. Should be a done deal.
As a caveat, if he came out and said he doesn’t believe he can win here because the deck is stacked against the team, as many believe, or should believe then I have no problem with that.
Sticking with $12.5MM simply isn’t realistic.
He will likely be in the $16.5MM range and, yes, absolutely, the Oilers can win the cup with him at that level.
That number would be a discount to what he could get as an AAV from 32 NHL teams (the Oilers and the others if he did want to wait).
When Leon signed for 8 years I thought Connor would sign the same 8 year extension. Connor is the face of the Oilers if he signs for 8 years it will give him a realistic possibility of 2-4 Cups it doesn’t get any better than that. I just can’t see Connor leaving his linemates high and dry like Mitch Marner did.
At this point, with everything we’ve heard, 8 years seems unlikely.
Looking at that list, it’s amazing how much shade the oilers get tossed at them for having a bad defense. Every team has a hole somewhere in the cap world – the fact that ours comes at 6D is a good sign. This is, of course, assuming that Ekholm can get back up to speed.
I think that the D and goalies take a lot of blame for poor forward defensive play, well just not good enough overall. Getting hemmed in, not supporting the outlets, not clearing with control, screening, being too spread out, etc etc
Imagine playing the Panthers and not getting enough help facing that fore check. It would suck. Knoblauch has to be right, and get them playing that system by rote. We’ve heard years of talk but they revert to old habits pretty easily
The Oilers defence being bad is a narrative by the uninformed.
The Athletic has the Oilers D-group ranked #1.
Are you suggesting it’s our below average goaltending?
There are many factors that can lead to goals against, including play of the forwards, etc.
Savoie is certain. You can book it
What goes along with certainties are intriguing possibilities. And there’re plenty of them around thank goodness. Savoie, Howard, Tomasek, Lazar, Philp, Jones, Hamblin, JANMARK, Jarventie, Emberson, Stecher, Leppanen, Regula and the biggest one for me is Samuel Jonsson. And there may be even more to come. And some I haven’t even mentioned.
I’ll take an uncertain Howard and Savoie over a certain Korpikoski and Gazdic any day of the week.
The fact we have legit NHL players like Stetcher who aren’t a lock to make the team is a sign that the “uncertainty” comes from healthy competition up and down the roster. Maybe not typical for a Stanley Cup contender, but also not a sign of lack of quality options, imo
Do you think Jonsson is a possibility in the NHL this coming season?
I don’t know? We’re talking about intriguing possibilities. It sure would be super cool.
Its important to note Mattias Jamark not in the certain category and I think that really is true.
It was an off the cuff statement by Stauff a few weeks back – I think he was talking PK with Stuart (but it could have been another player) and Stauff mentioned Janmark and then immediately said “well, the Oilers will need to do something with the cap. It was notable, to me.
Given the almost blind trust Janmark got last season, I still find it a bit tough to think that they might waive him (there would still be a near $300K cap hit when assigned after he clears) but hopefully they can find a way to move that contract.
Nothing against Janny but his skill-set is replaced by league min players already in the org – at least for me.
Those league minimum players are a simple bear necessity.
I believe each of Lazar and Philp could perform Janmark’s role and outperform what he did last season.
What is your basis for assuming that the only explanation for Knoblauch to play Janmark as he did because you disagree with his deployment is blind trust?
My basis is using my eyes and seeing results and a lack of change in deployment based thereon.
Janmark became a highly trusted player in Knob’s first season as he really was very good defensively and mistakes were rare.
Janmark’s game was not nearly at that level last season but deployment was not altered.
Note the word “almost” before “blind trust”.
My opinion.
Knoblauch and his staff and advisors, with their eyes, would have watched Janmark and reviewed his results along with any alternatives to Janmark considerably more than you or anyone at COH did. They may have come up with a different assessments of who was culpable for any mistakes that were made or whether any replacement was less likely to make them.
Knoblauch and his staff are capable of mistakes but much more likely a mistake in rational judgement or calculation than because of blind trust, almost or otherwise. Whether you qualified it with almost or not, you are still accusing Knoblauch of being less rational than you about his player decisions and that is just ridiculous.
Just my opinion.
I have yet to see Knob embrace short term pain – as a for instance, the growing pains associated with awarding young talent meaningful roles or minutes, or finding a team fit for offensive specialists – for long term gain or advantage.
Naturally,
the circumstances of Knob’s inaugural season as bench boss made that impossible, and his midseason success that same year made it seem insanity to alter course.
And yet,
I have to think Knob contributed to Broberg’s long-established disaffection with the club by refusing to find a place for him until the Stanley Frick’n Final.
Ken may have overripened Bro and failed to clear a path, but the coach had a tool there he preferred to let rust in the shed. I’m waiting to see what sort of rope or opportunity or support Knob gives the new blue chips.
Paul Maurice won the last 2 Stanley Cups while having only 1 rookie play any playoff games at all and that was a mere 4 games in this year’s playoffs. Four of the five youngest players in last year’s Stanley Cup finals were Oilers: Holloway, Broberg, Bouchard and MacLeod. This year, Podkolzin, the second youngest player in the finals, played every playoff game ahead of veterans Arvidsson and Skinner.
Paul Coffey was on board with Desharnais playing ahead of Broberg and maybe even advised it. Coffey told Broberg to go to the AHL and play big minutes rather than sit in the press box.
Knoblauch’s job one is to win the Stanley Cup and he has come as you possibly can 2 years running. The vast majority of decisions he makes is weighed against that objective. He has and will continue to make mistakes, as all do, but it is unlikely due to irrational bias.
I’m going to stick to my opinion that Janmark was over-used based on his play – feel free to dig in on a specific turn of phrase.
I think we see Janmark-stetcher dealt. I think Jarventie is a fixture on the roster by the end of the year. I also can see Regula getting a long look as Bowman knows this player. Bowman values fast pace and that starts with the D moving the puck upwards continuously. I do think we see at least a 30-40 goal increase as a team with the style of play Bowman is creating
I would like to see Janmark dealt but unlikely a team takes that contract with another year of term.
My opinion on Jarventie being an NHL player has been known for months. I have accounts from the ground in Bako that he has been 100% for the summer allowing him to hockey train – if he can stay healthy then, up, he should be in that convesation.
Its known that the org really thinks highly of Regula. He missed all of last season so, again, need to presume he’s been healthy to train this summer, he should play big minutes as 1RD in Bako and be the first call-up.
I really don’t think Janmark’s contract is going to scare teams away. And I don’t think he will be overly missed in Edmonton. Imo a trade is inevitable .
I don’t know about scare but why would any team take it on without a sweetener?
He’s clearly over-capped and has a year of term.
I think he would slide through waivers unclaimed.
How important is it to carry a full roster with so many back-to-backs and condensed Olympic schedule. I do see more injuries league wide because of players being tired and burnt out? Bowman and Holland tactically view tight against the cap differently.
I am not certain about Janmark. For the most part, I admire his compete level, skating, and defensive acumen. However, his salary is 1.45 million, last year he scored two goals (16 assists is laudable), and if memory serves he did not shoot the puck past a goalie.
I still wonder if Henrique agrees to a trade prior to the season. He gave it a shot but isn’t performing at the standard required with this team.
That’s interesting, now is that the team’s standard or is it just yours.
Primarily mine. And dozens of others on this site. He is not performing to his contract IMO. The third line centre slot for a Stanley Cup champion matters.
They really value his PK (Bowman was clear about how much they relied on him for faceoffs on the PK last year, both sides).
He will likely play more wing this season and I think will see some time at wing in the top 6 – lets not forget, his career has been more of an offensive player.
From accounts, he was asked about waiving earlier and didn’t want to.
There were accounts that feelers about possibly waiving were floated to Nurse too, but he made it clear that nothing like that transpired. Are any of the accounts that Henrique was asked verified or credible?
I believe so but I’d have to go back and listen to the 32 Thoughts Pod again and I’m not going to do that.
Maybe Nurse wasn’t listening. LA LA LA.