In an article for The Athletic 11 days ago, I wrote “The next McDavid contract will give fans an indication of how much additional time the captain wishes to devote to a management group that has consistently run out of sync with the cutting-edge GMs in the league.” Article is here.
I will tell you my opinion: I believe McDavid signs an extension. However, the vague verbal from the insiders we were reading all summer has now landed with McDavid himself expressing where he is at this time. He is committed to winning a Stanley Cup in Edmonton, but uncertain about the length and term of the next contract. He wants some assurance the organization will be competitive for the next decade, and of course he wants to be part of a championship team.
I understand his position. He has every right to evaluate and decide what is best for his family in the future. I think he has given thoughtful answers. I also think this is a very difficult time for the relationship between player, organization and fans.
The Oilers are much better than they were when McDavid arrived, but did not optimize the decade. McDavid’s position is defensible based on the team’s overall performance. The club’s recent trips to the final might make the captain’s stance seem curious, but the organization scorched the prospect pool and sent away myriad draft picks and are basically an abandoned house on the prairie in terms of young talent.
Where does everyone go from here? For me, I will respect McDavid’s freedom to select his future from dozens of possibilities, and chronicle the events in real time. The arguments and anger and finger pointing will begin soon or have already started. Those who say this could have been avoided will have a field day.
In the end, all that should matter to Oilers fans is getting the best value from McDavid possible. Up to, and including, trading him. More at noon on the Lowdown.
There’s only one reason to not sign max term. If you’re a young player ready to break out and you think your contract will be several times better when you do. Otherwise there’s no reason, you very easily could end up like Klingberg or worse. With guaranteed contracts all of the risk is on the team. Sure Mcdavid can sign a 2 year 15 mil contract and then a 20 mil contract afterwards. But what happens if you get injured and can’t play. You just lost a 90 mil (the 6 year x15 left on table)gamble in an effort to get a few years at 20mil. Way too risky. It’s not like he can’t ask for a trade if he wants out and pick the team he would waive for
Yet it does happen, with consistency so, while its too risky for Leadfarmer, its not for others.
An 8-year contract for McDavid would carry a much higher AAV than a 4 year contract. Lets not be ridiculous and think that McDavid should give up $30MM – $40MM or more to sign 8 years a huge discount. Yes, its much more likely that McDavid will finish his NHL career then get a career-ending injury
McDavid may decide to sign for a shorter term of 3-4 years at a much lower AAV than an 8-year term would require in order to propagate winning.
You keep making this blanket statement but it does not apply universally.
Bowman needs to go out and bring in a top tier goaltender, the best that McDavid has ever played in front of.
Ensure the tender has many years of term to go with.
Do you have any names in mind?
Bring in Cart Hart on a PTO.
That player has the same career SV% as Skinner and a higher GAA. In what world is he an improvement?
One goalie played for a top choice to win the Cup the other for a bottom 10 team.
Bettman is dragging out the process. I’m surprised there isn’t a class action lawsuit against the NHL by the 5 young men. Also Hockey Canada needs to be taken to the cleaners with there involvement in this whole scenario.,
Class action against the NHL?
For what?
You realize there have been others ruled ineligible to participate in the NHL for off-ice conduct that was not criminal, right?
Is there a specific top tier goaltender with cap hit they can fit in reasonably?
I’m curious about the assets out, including “good cap” that a team could want that would get a top tier goaltender without really hurting the team in another area.
No way is Bowman going to risk our season on below 900 goaltending again. You would have to find a taker for Skinner which may even at his 2.6 salary involve a sweetener.
— I like the exploration of this topic.
— McD (like any player) has earned his UFA status. He would undoubtedly have a lot of scar tissue from the years of organizational inept.
— coaches while he’s bee C: Todd, Hitch, Tippet (never hear about him), woodcroft now KK.
— the last two years results : he would have been fed for at least half decade prior that this was the vision and team they were building.
— At the same time he knows that anything less than max term isn’t a display of max leadership
— this is the last year a player can get an 8 year deal with favourable tax bonus
— I really hope he goes to max. Anything less is a tell on how he views the organization IMO.
— By all accounts all he wants to do his win Cups.
— All things being equal he puts the team in best position by signing long term and his contract turns into value relative to cap just as it was for McDrai over their last contracts
— Don’t blame him for clearly pondering having an out rather than be pot committed for next 8 years : the Oil just really aren’t an elite organization. Yeah they have some elite players but they have been let down IMO.
— A better org would have got more out of McDrai to date IMO
Agree on all points.
I disagree with exactly one point.
Maximum leadership could also look like a short term deal at a undeniably low AAV for what he brings.
2 years @ 9.7m for sort of realistic example.
Cap goes up, he can revisit the UFA question at age 30 and try and go for $20Mx8y if he likes. Obviously there is always risk.
Yeah, If he really means what he says then he signs 8 years at a hair over Leons deal.
Given all of the Panther’s core contracts are 10M and under, locked in, and they are going to be the team to beat for a bit
Bowman has to strategize against that as well. When the cap jumps and then keeps rising, they are going to be able to add more good players down the roster. At least a playoff cap will mitigate that to some degree
The big three are going to have to contribute enough to offset being top heavy. If Connor also goes short like Bouch, them taking more in the next few years will tighten them to the cap again, and Stan is going to have to do genius work to give them a chance (and ditch some cap inefficient contracts)
Yes, I agree and the best thing he can do is what almost every other player in his position does and sign the max term so when he’s 34 he doesn’t have to carry the team.
He knows this and if he doesn’t sign max term then I believe he’s hedging his bets and has one foot out the door. One bad season and he’s gone.
He can sign max term and still get out if he wants to. If he really wants to stay and win here then briefly becoming the highest paid player is the way to go. I can’t see it any other way unless he’s disingenuous about his intentions.
I disagree on many points:
1) factual, next off-season, until September 16, the current contract rules are in place (the NHLPA has stated that they will not be subject to early application)
2) a non-max near term is does not mean “not max leadership” and cannot be directly related to views on the organization.
3) This is tied to this and the priority of winning cups. We know where the cap is going (generally) and we know that McDavid would be able to reasonably sign for even more after a 4-year contract with a cap that could be $130MM and still rising. Its not reasonable to not price a further AAV increase in to an 8-year term for this guy over a 4 year term.
Lets be real – asking McDavid to sign an 8-year deal at 15%-16% of the current cap is not a reasonable. I haven’t done the math but you are asking the guy to give up tens and tens and tens of millions – probably $50MM.
Point is that a 4-year deal is conducive to winning as an 8-year deal would be $3MM more per season.
— Your conclusion wrong. While sept 2026 is the deadline to sign deals under the current CBA , factually this next deal that he signs this year is his last chance for 8 years. That’s business reality vs legales obfuscation
— Thankfully neither Conner nor the organization would look at the deadline as September 2026. He’s signing soon, factually.
— For sure not signing for max is a tell. You’re seemingly bargaining that he can make more money probably later and that’s what the press is telling us too.
— The most recent example of this is Austin Matthews : it’s a tell that he only signed 4 years : he’s got one foot out the door.
— I also don’t get the argument that the options are say 13mm x 4 vs 16mm x 8. (Using your 3mm per season). Leaving 12mm because of the promises of more cap space next CBA. He will get paid close to the max regardless of term.
— Drai signed for 8. They are best buddies. It changes the dynamic if they aren’t on the same page IMO.
— But I would totally get why he has been reluctant to be all in. The organization has let him down IMO. 4 years is a hedge.
— Look at it another way : there is no way that the organization wouldn’t have 8 year as the best scenario: because from a team building it just is. Conner so far hasn’t bought into this.
— whatever is signed it will be pitched as “best case scenario” to fan base
— Let’s see : it’s a fascinating time to be sure. The messaging of “we will let Conner decide” is a decidedly weak hand they project.
I really need to get back on the Terry Pratchett train, Interesting Times was a fantastic read. Love me a bit of Rincewind and also Cohen the Barbarian.
As for McDavid I have zero worries or stress. We’re surely only just getting out of the summer vacation time and heading into times when the agent and management would be talking? Going by his comment on wanting no distractions it sounds like Connor would likely be pushing to get this done before the season opener – that’s October 8th. That’s close to 6 weeks away, plenty of time for it to get done.
As a fun exercise though, let’s all think about what the trade return would be for McDavid if he’s not looking like signing…. That’s what we should all be doing with our time
McDavid for Shesterkin+.
If Shesterkin has a few more elite years in him this would probably be the best route to take. Then again, his best years could be behind him.
I don’t understand what more he can want for assurances that what than what ownership and management have already done
1) its clearly that ownership will provide the capital for whatever it takes (spending to, and over, the cap including massive signing bonuses, burying one way contracts in the minors, taking on close to $15MM in the Lucic for Neal swap (real dollars), paying for multiple coaches and managers at the same time due to firings, etc.., etc).
2) Management, past and current, have built a team that has been objectively and elite contender over the last few years, the core (but for Connor) is signed for term and the manager is making moves in real time to try and keep the team at this status and extend the window. One can niptick any particular aspect, like “are you going to upgrade on Skinner” or “why haven’t you moved Henrique?” but management is letting aging vets walk when they price themselves out, making signings and trades to get youngers and faster but remaining skilled, etc., etc.
I would hope McDavid doesn’t need at 30-page model from Bowman – he knows “the plan” and McDavid signing, and leaving a bit on the table (i.e. not going over $16MM-$16.5MM) is part of it.
I think there are lots of things the organization can do. Now, they ARE being aggressive in procurement now and that may bring results, and they are adding to the ‘plug-and-play rookies’ pile quickly. However, I suspect some of the discontent comes from deployment/strategy and that may come down to the coach.
Do you think McDavid is unhappy with the coach, LT?
What do you mean by “deployment strategy”?
Who plays with who?
Not playing young players or overplaying certain vets?
Just trying to understand what you are getting at.
Maybe he’s sick of the perma blender?
Given how much communication there is between the head coach, who deploys the lines in any game, and McDavid, I find it tough to believe that is a factor of any significance in McDavid’s determination on if the organization is in a state he needs it to be.
The deployment of the defense in the final was poor.
I 100% agree and have expressed SCF D-group deployment as a major reason for the series loss.
Of course, the deployer, Paul Coffey, is no longer a coach.
I’m also not sure that McDavid wondering why Nurse/Kulak was continued to be deployed is factor in his deciding if the organization is in a good enough state to re-sign.
If it was, well, they’ve made a move to that direct area….
You mean his former junior coach that has taken him to the finals twice? I would suspect the discontent is/was mostly circled around not winning the cup and any frustration over KH’s term behind the wheel. In the last 24 months they’ve rebuilt the front office and coaches room around him, and so far Stan seems to be an improvement in the GM chair and dare I say inspires some confidence in current leadership. So a 4-5 year “prove it” contract seems logical and if they can’t hoist Stanley by then he can elect to find greener pastures.
I agree with LT the coaching hasn’t been to the level required, yet. The team has all NHL players, in 2015 it didn’t
No team has all better than average players. I don’t think Holland’s years were better than average, his few wins gobbled up by the overpays and many fails. I see Bowman as better, but if the coaches can’t rise to the level of the guys they oppose, it won’t matter who is on the team
I see the 3 elite player’s games maturing as what has driven them mostly. That they played players too injured to do what they normally can in key roles, again, isn’t good. That there was no answer to Maurice’s basic system after a 7 game look at it is not impressive
In deep playoffs the head coach is as important as the players. We’ve had two rookie HC’s in a row. Some say Knoblauch has taken them to two finals, I say Connor Leo and Bouch have taken KK to two finals
To me they haven’t been fully rolling as a team yet, or gotten to the level I think they can and should be at. The Panthers have found that, they have a good roster, but they aren’t like some teams that won Cups have been. It’s mostly Maurice and a great GM. The Oilers can dominate certain teams, but really struggle still with others. They aren’t consistent as a group, all playing well in hard games at the same time
That’s a coaching issue to me more than personnel at this point. I think Connor wants to be an Oiler, drafted players are the most loyal. Connor was as frustrated as he’s ever been after this loss, and I am sure he has some thoughts about it, and there are probably concerns among them. ‘We just keep banging our heads against the same wall’ or whatever he said. And the D deployment was off. If the whole team had played with the passion and determination Pod did they would have won, that’s what it takes
— I like this especially the “Conner et al took KK to Cup last 2 years”
— Oil have more high end skill than any team in NHL. But they do not have high end coaching or management.
— Let’s hope they can improve their coaching and management
— The Jays changed a lot of their coaching in off season and the message got through and the players have excelled. Let’s see what the coaching changes do for this team to helpfully unlock more potential
Not arguing that the Oilers could have been more competitive earlier, but almost all of the top teams have scorched earth prospect pools. And there is only one team more successful in the last 2 years, and few in the last 4.
I think McDavid’s comments were actually encouraging, and think a 4 year deal would be just fine. But I also think he needs to balance legacy and his own contract with his desire to win here. He is one of the few in the NHL with significant off ice income, he can certainly take less for a shorter period if winning is his ultimate goal. Or he can finish up this deal and go be a hired gun in Florida for a year, but only one of those options cements his legacy.
There’s really no point in worrying about 97’s extension at all. He’s not gonna sit there and say “I’m definitely signing.” Even though he can get as much money as he wants, there’s still a negotiation to have. His response was exactly how he should handle the situation.
A lot of the drama could be avoided if contracts were a fixed percentage of the cap rather than an actual dollar amount. Since the cap never goes down, the players are no worse off than they are with the current escrow system, and generally better off.
Connor can sign at 15% (or whatever) of the cap for 8 years, knowing that the team can then work around that number, and he’ll still benefit from the rising cap and not hamstring the team if it becomes stagnant again.
Some GMs would hate it because a rising cap protects them from their own mistakes, but other would probably enjoy the easier long term planning. (Can you add to 100? Good, you can make the cap work.)
But the media wouldn’t be able to run breathless hand-wringing stories in the dog days of summer, so there’s that.
Why is there this much drama about Mcdavid. Drai is just as good of a player and is more than happy to play out essentially the rest of his career in Edmonton.
Because McDavid plus Draisaitl gives the Oilers a better chance to win. Having said that, and I never talk about it, Sam Pollock might handle this differently.
I think that ship sailed when Leon signed long. You would do it the other way around
I’m curious. Might make for a good radio spot. Schooling for the young’s at your table: How Sammy Pollock would have built a perennial contender with /without McDrai.
I would hand over the C to Leon before game 1 if Connor decides not to sign by then. Then I would ask McDavid to a sign and trade like Tkachuk. It’s up to Bowman to do what’s best for the organization.
Your first sentence is inconsistent with your second sentence.
There isn’t any real drama though – its all made up.
Drai, like Connor, spoke at the end of the playoffs and expressed o issues re-signing in Edmonton with wining being priority.
Nothing happened all summer – updates were non-updates expressing no issues.
Leon went to Connor’s wedding.
Leon signed on Sept 3 last year.
There is the “extra interview” with Connor from yesterday due the camp – that’s all.
I agree with this take LT. It’s not a great feeling that they have left a lot of cash on the barrel for a decade. For Connor, Leon and us. Under better direction of course the first years would have been building years, but for me the last half of it should have been better
Part of this though goes on Connor and Leon. They were very stubborn not getting to a strong playoff type two way game earlier on, and learning the necessary patience. Or learning how to deal with Maurice and coaches like that. Getting to the 2nd round in 2017, then missing twice. Lose 3-1 to the Hawks, 4-0 to the Jets, get to the conference finals and swept by the Avs, round 2 and a 4-2 loss to the Knights, lose twice to the Panthers
I am certain Connor and Leon feel like they have a destiny. They are climbing the all time lists, Connor already well established as one of the best ever. They know the glory players that are around. There is a lot that goes into winning, but at the end of the day those kind of players have to lead their team to a Cup if it’s going to happen. The greats usually win more than one, because of the advantage that most teams don’t have
No team is perfect, and only a few teams have truly top level players. When you have them the expectations are higher by nature. I believe they can get there, and I’m not pointing a finger at them, it’s not a blame thing I’m interested in, but I think the points made are fair and true. There is something different that is needed to get to their best as a team and as elite players
Fair point that it took 97 & 29 longer than it should have to Yzerman their game.
McDavid, in particular, far from there still really.
He can be so very good in all areas but he is prone to defensive mistakes and defensive slumps – take a look at the SCF – he was primarily responsible for 4-5 goals against.
What McDavid really said yesterday is, I’m going to be re-signing in Edmonton and it will be before camp starts but I’m not giving a date for your guys. Wait until the leak then press conference.
I sure hope so because you can’t have your Captain-leader unsigned while saying I’m keeping all my options open.
Connor isn’t a dummy. I can’t think of a scenario where he leaves and has a better shot, especially at this stage of his career and age. They are the second best team with better high end players than their main foe. That foe has also cemented itself in place and isn’t young, Bowman is changing things despite some obstacles
Any team he would be traded to will be gutted in getting him. I don’t think he’s the kind of guy that would want to walk to UFA and leave the team in a crappy place because of that. He might be too frustrated in 3 or 4 years and just want a change, I still can’t see it working out better
Of Course Edmonton is going to have 8 legit runs to the Cup if he signs to max term. I don’t think it comes down to team construction as now Connor is making a family decision not just a personal player decision.
He specifically mentioned not wanting distractions and wanting the team dialed in from Day 1.
Of course, when he said “all options are on the table” it was about when the contract would get done, not it. A key point. All that was was him not saying “yes, I want this done before the camp or I’m not talking about it”.
When he also said he wants to ensure no distractions heading in to the season, he’s telling us this is getting done in the next few weeks without actually saying it.
Of course, this is my opinion based on his words, not fact. I’m highly confident though (which, of course, means nothing).
If you had been around when Wayne got married it was a true spectacle. It played out like a Royal Wedding the City was buzzing with electricity. Then less than a month later the innocence of Edmonton had its heart ripped from it. I don’t want to sound pessimistic but it wouldn’t shock me to start hearing faint chatter slowly building up as the days go by.
Connor’s best shot at the cup is in Edmonton and he knows this. Of course, there’s always the scenario they trade him for a king’s ransom and the Oil defeat him in the cup final with his new team that isn’t good enough.
If I had been around? Don’t be a condescending ass….
In fact, I was around and, as much as you like to compare every aspect of the team to what happened back in the 80s, much of it is meaningless to today’s game and today’s player.
Not to mention:
1) Please take a look at the financial stability under Peter P. vs. now.
2) Please take a look at that new wife and her CAREER IN HOLLOWYOOD vs. McDavid’s new wife and her MULTIPLE BUSINESS VENTURES IN EDMONTON.
Caps for emphasis, not yelling!
Quick where were you the day Gretzky was traded? We had just won our 4th Cup we probably had 3 or 4 Cups still left in us. They were voted the greatest team ever and to those folks that say the past is meaningless I would clapback with that is very shortsighted thinking.
Reading the tea leaves here, it REALLY seems to me like whenever McDavid speaks, he is trying to make as little waves as possible while giving himself the most flexibility in what his contract will look like so he doesn’t get judged later i.e. don’t over promise and under deliver.
I really think all contract options are on the table but he doesn’t want to be locked into seeming like he wants an 8 year deal or taking a discount or having to have the contract done by a certain time. His comments lets him do what he wants with as little expectations for this contract as possible while really giving no indication he wants out
Alas, patience and subtlety are rare qualities amongst the fanbase, here and everywhere.
For the record, I believe McDavid signs a fair and stable contract. Something in the range $16M for 4 years. In a way I feel the Kaprizov contract is perhaps slowing this process a bit. McDavid is and should be the highest paid player in the league.
However, if he doesn’t sign, the first team I’m calling is the NJ Devils and getting the pieces together for both Hughes brothers in return. Quinn can certainly follow when his contract is up, if not sooner.
I think everyone believes he will sign a contract. His avail yesterday was deliberately vague in a world that wants concrete answers. Not an easy line to walk.
And to think we could have avoided all of this torment if he was just asked about Olympic softball in the presser
Haha. I think McDavid did pretty well with the questions, but this was always going to be a story without a signed deal.
I think $16 mln is fair. His buddy, who is coming off a better year, just signed for $14 mln. While 97 could ask for more than $16 mln, he should be asking himself how much better he is than Leon.
I may get some down votes for this, but the priorities of doing “what’s best for family” and “wanting a SC trophy” can be in conflict. What’s best for his family is signing for as much money as he can (which hinders the Oilers ability to create a team with good depth) and having his wife live in a city where her business ventures really take off (less likely in a smaller Canadian city)
McDavid may merely have had the misfortunate of having his best “team” years at a time a rival (Florida) iced one of the best groups the league has seen in decades. Giving the Oilers an implied ultimatum before leaving for another club isnt gonna change that.
Management has made some missteps. But they have done everything they can to make MvDavid happy and surround him not only with talent – but with his good buddies. Perhaps at an overpay for the latter.
That being said, I admire his skill, work ethic and non-controversial demeaner and hope he signs long term even if at max dollars
Money is a non issue there will be zero pushback on any contract he signs that is if he signs before game one. If McDavid wants out he needs to name the teams where he wants to go and let the bidding war begin. It’s McDavid’s life If he wants to try the 2nd half of his career elsewhere I wish him all the best but if he plays the cat and mouse game like Marner and leave the Oiler organization with their pants down I’ll be choked.
You keep saying what McDavid needs to be if he wants out.
1) There is no indication he wants out – he just said yesterday his sole focus is winning in Edmonton.
2) Even if he did want out, he, as a person, doesn’t NEED to do anything. He was every right to play out his contract and sign wherever he wants.
Imagine what the Oilers could do with $16.5MM of fresh cap space that they didn’t think they had to spend.
Of course, that scenario is very non-plausible.
Connor isn’t saying anything unusual for a hockey player in Canada. But I am not a fan of such euphemisms in general. If Lauren wants him to quit hockey for some non-medical reason, would he? Of course not. Their world revolves around Connor’s career, he’s an all time player. Like Wayne and Mark he’ll be around the game for a long time after his skating days doing something
I feel the only prudent thing for me to do is overreact in the most ostentatious way possible.
Ha! You put the “rabid” in “fan.” Beautiful 🙂
Granted, I did not watch the entire interview, just the recapped snippets from Rishaug, Friedman, etc. but can we really take much from the answers McDavid gave? Seemed like standard canned answers to me. Taking his time, willing to start the season unsigned but doesn’t want any distractions? Those statements don’t jive at all. Will be the biggest distraction in the league in the last 10 plus years if he starts the year unsigned.
I agree he has earned the right to make whatever decision he wants to make, and I’ve also been critical of management many times over the years, but McDavid has also been on this team the entire time and should accept part of the responsibility for the results as well. Last season was definitely a Stanley year and Conner wasn’t at his best for most of the season in my opinion. He needs to wear that. I also wonder about how much input he has into coaching and roster decisions. I’d be willing to bet it’s not zero.
I think he signs in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully to an eight year deal, but more likely 4 or 5 like the insiders are saying
There is nothing here I don’t agree with.