
And we’re back. It’s always such a long summer and early fall waiting for hockey. I used to watch the closing credits of the final Hockey Night in Canada broadcast with a mixture of melancholy (well, as much as one is able to gather at age 10), sadness and resolve. I promised to meet everyone back in the fall, and to try not to be a pain to Mrs. Stewart at the Rexall Drugs in Maidstone if The Hockey News was a week late in July (that was the draft, trade and stats issue).
There will be massive Oilers developments this season, we’ve already had the McDavid contract and the European signings all showing well. What’s next? Suspect it’s a better Game 1 than we saw last fall, and the fall before it.
LINES AND PAIRINGS
Draisaitl-McDavid-Frederic
Mangiapane-RNH-Savoie
Podkolzin-Philp-Kapanen
Howard-Henrique-Tomasek
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Regula
Kulak-Emberson
Skinner
Pickard
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
At home to: Calgary, Vancouver (Expected 2-0)
On the road to: Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Detroit, Ottawa (Expected 2-2-1)
At home to: Montreal (1-0)
On the road to: Seattle, Vanouver (1-1)
At home to: Mammoth, Rangers (1-0-1)
Expected Record: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
Expectations
This is going to be an interesting season for Oilers fans. Expect a massive ovation for Connor McDavid tonight, the contract he just signed puts him on a different level as a leader and a team player. I’m genuinely amazed by the AAV, and suspect history will say 97 did everything he could to help this team over the line. And then some.
Stuart Skinner will be a big story for these Oilers in 2025-26. The split in the fanbase isn’t 50/50, suspect Skinner has more supporters than detractors even now. It doesn’t matter. Stan Bowman can’t enter another playoff spring with the same goalie tandem. Connor Ingram would likely be the first tweak, but one imagines a deadline deal if Skinner can’t find another gear.
The Oilers are more top heavy than a year ago, with four players representing $46 million of the projected $96 million total via Puck Pedia. That means inexpensive players in feature roles.
The value contracts this year: Stuart Skinner $2.6 million; Jake Walman $3.4 million; Brett Kulak $2.75 million; Alec Regula (potentially) $775,000; Vasily Podkolzin $1 million; Matt Savoie (potentially) $1.95 million; Ike Howard (potentially) $1.617 million; David Tomasek (potentially) $1.2 million. Edmonton needs several of these names to step into a prominent role and thrive.
I like the bets here, and am pleased to see several names young enough to grow during the season. It isn’t where Savoie and Howard are on opening night that is key, it’s what they are come the spring.
On the Lowdown today, Kevin McCurdy will help us preview the Oilers game tonight and the season to follow. We’ll have wall to wall coverage of the events leading up to game time and your comments are welcome. Sports 1440 and You Tube, noon to 2pm today.
New for The Athletic: Six critical questions for the Edmonton Oilers entering the 2025-26 season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6697111/2025/10/08/edmonton-oilers-2025-26-schedule-questions/
I would add a seventh: WTF happens with the PK? To my eye this has been a significant vulnerability since that hallucination of a PK evaporated after June 2024. Not just poor. A real chink in armour. The new system looked awfully anemic in preseason…
I’m reminded of my favourite Game 1, which was also against Calgary. Oct. 7, 2010 – 15 years ago yesterday. My, where has the time gone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7M0gEKU4Wg
Thank you for posting this as it was such a pleasure to watch. The Eberle toe drag was great, but the Smakintire knockout was fantastic. I remember taking my son to a meet and greet with Macintire at a drug store down on Elerslie road that fall. For such a large man he was quite soft spoken and great with the kids.
Once an Oiler – Always an Oiler
Hope the Oilers come out tonight and play a well rounded game, leaving the Flames in shambles would be ideal.
Here’s to a successful season for the Oilers & Condors!
I, for one, am glad tonight’s opponent is not a powerhouse team. The Oilers need to come out of the gate hot and lead the Pacific from start to finish. Resting players down the stretch – not missing games per se but limiting ice time etc. Home-ice advantage matters and not just the home crowd, it also reduces travel.
Oilers 2024 – 2025 Regular Season (pts per game): Home – 1.29 / Away – 1.17
Oilers 2024 – 2025 Playoffs (wins / losses): Home 7-3 / Away 7-5
Oilers were much better at home in both the regular season and playoffs.
“not missing games per se”
I disagree. I think they need to rest key players by healthy scratching them (for away games). We saw this load management work last year.
Anybody who comes back from the Olympics is getting sat for a week to recoup in my world.
Connor admitted back from 4 nations he was out of sorts.
Will be interesting to see how Knoblach deploys his bottom two lines tonight. Which is actually the third line and which is the fourth?
Wonder what the lineup will be when Hyman gets back. I’m guessing
Mangiapane Mcdavid Hyman
Podkolzin Drai Savoie
Frederick Nuge Howard
Tomasek Henrique Phelp
hope the new guys play well and goalering holds, and we can get a winger upgrade at the trade deadline
So in a year the Oilers have 21 mil in likely cap space with a 3LHD, 4th line and two goalers to sign.
Time for Mcdavid to become best friends with Crosby over the Olympic break
This, potentially, could be how you beat the Florida officiating. Not sure too many refs are going to want to explain to Sid why that wasn’t too meany men in overtime…
Ekholm now joins Nuge with upcoming 1000 games played.
This organization sure has changed since the DoD.
Hyman was on the ice for the skate today – he’s on LTIR for a min of 10 games and 21 days but this is the first time he’s been on the ice with the team – I’m sure he’s happy (as are his teammates).
Walman also on the ice (with Stecher – neither are playing) – its Regula Time!
With all these contracts in place starting in 2026, the Oilers have a window until 2028 where they can afford to add either a scoring winger or a higher-paid goaltender.
GMSB has room to make one or two moves to put this team over the top.
Go big, Stan.
So many teams will have so much cap to spend the competition for free agents will be fierce and the contracts eye watering.
Teams that have both cap space and many draft picks as trade capital should have an enormous competitive advantage in acquiring players.
I would keep an eye on teams like Utah which has all of their core already locked up on extreme value deals for several seasons (Logan Cooley being an exception) a leading prospect pool, 20 draft picks in the next 2 rounds as well as almost $38 million in cap space next offseason.
Players also have to want to play there.
The Oilers’ predicament means they’ll attract players whose main focus is winning the Stanley Cup.
Utah’s predicament means they’ll attract players who desire having multiple wives.
Of course that is true but some teams, Utah included, have the ability to bid up contracts to an extreme degree.
Just thinking what they might offer Adrian Kempe or Martin Necas for example,
The $12 million Kyle Connor got last night would likely be the floor and Utah could sign BOTH of them and have cap left over. while having a quiver full of draft picks to facilitate trades or offer sheets.
How to decide…. hmmmm!
Maybe
or the teams with internal caps will continue falling behind as expenses continue piling up
There might be a few for sure.
But with billionaires now owning most franchises likely not many.
Billionaires don’t like to spend their own money.
The Oilers owner doesn’t seem to mind.
Worth noting, you suck.
It’s odd, like many of the players, I couldn’t care less about hockey in the summer.
Then September hits, the leaves begin to change and I crave any crumb of info I can get, like knowing who Lennart “What’s Hockey” Petrell, Steve “Yes I was an Oiler” Pinizzotto, and Victor “You can’t say my last name” Fasth are is like an addiction. Could probably have learned a skill or new language but dammit I like hockey.
That we have to wait until October is a cardinal sin, the preseason is too long and I’m glad the players all agree.
As those seeking the Holy Grail would attest: “Get on with it!”
Yep. All of the above.
Total hockey fatigue + obvs sadness for last season’s outcome.
But ready to roll again!
Wonder who will be this year’s Brendan “Lamborghini” Perlini!!
For the people that don’t like the Ekholm contract because he may not get back to previous levels would you be ok with paying him his fair market value of 8-9 mil per year if he does?
This is a great bet and a great deal for the team
I would have waited for a few months, and would have liked the number be 3×3.
How many 36 year old defensemen get extensions like that? Even after a good year?
thats Equivalent to the 2.5-3 mil dollar contract very recently, so quite a few I would say
I meant the 8-9 mil a year you posted.
The two closest comparables are Tanev and Fowler:
Tanev signed 6x$4.5M in 2024 from age 34 to 40
Fowler signed 3x$6.1M starting 2026 from age 34.8 to 37
Ekholm signed 3x$4M starting 2026 from age 36.5 to 39
Condors roster:
GOALTENDERS (3)
Nathaniel Day
Connor Ingram
Matt Tomkins
Tomkins will get the early work, Ingram will play a lot when ready. Good on Day for making the club.
DEFENSE (8)
Beau Akey
Josh Brown
Damien Carfagna
Cam Dineen
Atro Leppanen
Mason Millman
Luke Prokop
Riley Stillman
Plenty to like about this group, including six men signed to NHL deals.
FORWARDS (13)
Connor Clattenburg
Matt Copponi
Daniel D’Amato
Seth Griffith
James Hamblin
Quinn Hutson
Roby Jarventie
Max Jones
Ethan Keppen
Viljemi Marjala
Matvey Petrov
Rem Pitlick
Rhett Pitlick
Josh Samanski
Josh Samanski, Viljemi Marjala, Quinn Hutson, Matt Copponi and Connor Clattenburg represent an upgrade year over year. A healthy Roby Jarventie might be the best of the lot, although Samanski and Hutson have impressed me.
Hope Day gets the workload after Ingram gets promoted
For sure. Tomkins isn’t the one developing
PP2 gets interesting when Hyman gets back because there is real potential there.
PP2 would likely be built around maximizing the shots of Tomasek who loves the Ovi spot and Howard:
Left flank: Tomasek (Righty)
Right flank: Howard (Lefty)
Next you put in Walman at top (Lefty) and you need Savoie who is a Righty so put him on Tomasek’s side and a net presence (your choice of Frederic, Mangiapane, Henrique).
By far the best playmaker is Savoie so you would want to run the PP through him but that would mean Tomasek would be an awkward fit and would have to go to the Drai position down low which I don’t think many other players can score from.
I’d suggest swapping Savoie and RNH so Savoie can play L flank on PP1 and has all the same abilities as RNH to keep the puck moving and have a sneaky good shot and give McDavid another one-time option.
RNH then goes to PP2 and the PP can run off R flank where Tomasek’s one timer can be maximized and Howard can go more to a bumper or down low role. When things break down or are fluid RNH is equally adept at running a PP on L side too
I would give PP-2 more time as well. I would start PP-2 on occasion. Mix it up a bit give the opposition a new look.
Fun!
I hope we get a different look from our Oil tonight and they don’t let the Flames spoil the party. It’s game on. Lenny’s gonna eat! Pummel those flames let that fan base know what a long and miserable season they’re in for. Drive them all to basketball. Watercooler talk in Calgary this year is going to be the PWHL.
I hope that things align for the various new hires (Tomasek, Savoie, Howard, Regula) to get a full set of at bats for growth and assessment. Whether that is through veteran injury or ineffectiveness, or just great play by the new guy, I’m good with any.
Go Oilers!
I want across-the-board effectiveness. 🙂
I think Ekholm’s deal needs to be looked at in context of rising cap. If you look at Ekholm’s deal and compare it to say 2023/24 salary cap terms which was first year out of flat cap era:
2023/24 (83.5): $4M=$4m
2024/25 (88): $3.8M
2025/26 (95.5): $3.5M
2026/27 (104-107): $3.1-3.2M
2027/28 (113.5-117): $2.8-2.9M
2028/29 (no set projection but let’s say 122-125): $2.6-$2.7M
Lead by the Captain’s contract and the ensuing deals signed by Walman and Ekholm, it sure seems like that, for the first time in ages, there is total team buy in moving forward and that’s a great sign. I fully expect them to bring it much more than they have the last 2 openers.
There’s still the bugaboo of the Goal-tending that remains, but moving forward, it’s hard not to be excited about the next 3 seasons. Maybe Skinner rebounds and the issue solves itself, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Go Oilers!
Our journey here continues… let’s see it through!
Given the current market, Nuge and Hyman in the $5MM range, even if they may not be priming, are likely still value deals.
Connor Ingram could be providing massive value as well, could be.
If Ingram comes in and plays anywhere from ok-competent back-up to excellent-stater type roll what do you see the range of his next contract to be?
It shouldn’t be more than he was getting and short term. He isn’t in the league now and has had personal issues. A higher long term deal has far too much risk to turn into a Campbell situation, who also has personal issues
I think this is Skinner last hurrah either he prices himself out of the Oilers market as a starter or he becomes too pricey as a back-up. Depending on his play I would sign Ingram to a 2 year deal and find another value contract like Silvos. With the Campbell buyout if we have 2 solid goaltenders that don’t need constant babying for 8 million that would be awesome.
I don’t love the Ekholm deal at this moment but I certainly also don’t hate it.
I don’t know what Ek will be able to give in year 1 of the deal, let alone year 3 of the deal (I don’t even know what he’s going to give this year yet) but, at the end of the day, $4MM is all but nothing these days (and its going to be even less over the next few seasons).
I put zero stock in to his play in exhibition – I actually thought his mobility looked fine – Ek, just like the other vets, notwithstanding he was coming back from injury, was doing what he needed to do for him to get ready – that is far from playing his 100% game.
Tonight we’ll start to get some real information on if he’s limited via injury or age.
One would think that Bowman knows about his health, and it isn’t chronic. My Spidey Sense remains concerned however
I’m sure he has all the available information but we (and he) don’t know what we (and he) don’t know. At 35 years of age, can his body fully recover from a torn hip abductor (and playing through it)? It took Nurse 3 years in his 20s.
Is it not chronic? This is not the first time as an Oiler he’s dealt with hip/groin/core issues.
Taking away injury, he’s 36 when this deal kicks in – there are not many good top 4 d-men over 35 in the league and age regression is real – the question is solely how steep.
Again, I’m fine with the deal given what $4MM buys these days – if nothing else, he’s a great due and a leader but he may be a 3rd pairing guy for much of this deal.
We’ll see.
“Again, I’m fine with the deal given what $4MM buys these days – if nothing else, he’s a great due and a leader but he may be a 3rd pairing guy for much of this deal.”
Not sure how real this is for a pro hockey club, but Ek’s longterm value may be as a steadying and mentoring influence on younger D. That value is immeasurabe in other organizations/communities.
Same. Everyone loves the Viking, and the AVV is sorta feel-good given the Oilers past, but…
Right now I’m consciously rolling with the feel-good.
I think Connor Ingram has ever ability to battle Stuart Skinner for 1A and that includes Skinner performing near his rookie level (.914 in 50 games with a team that isn’t as good defensively as it is now).
I think Ingram has a peak level at least as high as Skinner – lets hope he can get up and running and, after some runway, he should be a big improvement on Pickard (no offence to Cal).
With that said, my goodness, do I hope Stuart Skinner has a good start to the season – the noise on him is overly-exaggerated and I hope, for him as a person, and as a fan of the Oilers that he can gain some upward momentum.
If the Oilers go in to next season with Skinner @ $5MM and Ingram at @ $3MM, i think that means the Oilers may have won Stanley!
My expectations for the month are 12-0-0. This team is capable of beating any team in the league on any night (said with tongue firmly in cheek while acknowledging that the opposite is also true).
I believe that last year’s debacle against the Jets on opening night really set the team back mentally and it took quite some time to recover their footing to solid ground. Looking for The Glimmer Twins to put their stamp on this game early and often.
I don’t recall an October night where there was both an Oiler game and a Jays game (it probably has happened; just old and don’t remember). Even better that the game times do not conflict so 5 PM – 11 PM tonight is fully booked.
Prediction: both the Jays and Oilers win 5-3 tonight!
Go Jays Go / Go Oilers Go
Good question about Jays and Oilers over-lapping. I can only find two games where this happened.
1991
On Oct 8, the Jays lost 3-2 to the (eventual WS winning) Twins, with the game lasting until 9:58pm MT. On the same night, the Oilers lost 6-3 to the Kings in a penalty-filled game that last until at least 10pm, probably later. There were 9 fighting majors, 7 roughing minors, 3 misconducts and 2 game misconducts. God, I love hockey. A youtube search of “oilers kings oct 8 1991” reveals a trove of fun.
1992
On October 8, the Jays beat Oakland 3-1 in the ALCS, with the game lasting until 8:37 MT. That night, the Oilers lost 7-2 in Calgary (Petr Klima scoring both of EDM’s goals). The game almost surely started at 7pm, so viewers had to make a choice that night.
Elliotte Friedman:
Quick follow-up on Monday night’s Kyle Connor reporting:
The Winnipeg Jets have announced an eight-year, $96-million extension ($12 million AAV) with unrestricted free-agent-to-be Kyle Connor, but what really stands out are the deeper details.
Not only is it the biggest contract in Jets history, but, according to multiple sources, it also includes multiple seasons of signing bonuses and a full no-move clause — steps the organization has never taken before.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/jets-to-include-multiple-bonuses-full-no-move-clause-in-connor-deal/
Conner is a really, really good player who put up career pts last year in both the regular season and playoffs. That being said, I guess 12 million is the new 9 million. Glad we have 29 at 14 and 97 at 12.5!
As the cap spikes, the year-to-year rise will make these contracts seem like bargains very quickly.
There is some speculation that the cap next season will be even higher than the projections of the league.
Connor’s deal 3-4 years from now will seem paltry and Winnipeg is well positioned since their top paid D only makes $7 million AAV for the next 3 seasons.
Psyched for the season!!
I was a little blah during the regular season last year. Combination of many things. I intend to follow the games much more closely.
Really excited to see the kids (Savoie, Howard, Regula) and also curious about Tomasek. From OP’s scouting, Savoie should be able to handle the defensive responsibilities on the second line.
George Springer had an unexpected renaissance this season for the Jays. Could Henrique do something similar with Ike Howard on his wing against the soft parade? I think it’s the ideal place for Howard to start.
I thought Podz took a step forward in the playoffs with his playmaking and and hockey sense. More?
Walman is not ready yet, but when he is, three pairs of mobile D who can move the puck. Plus the Finnish guy waiting in the wings, whom I am excited about. This team could be a real offensive juggernaut.
My bold prediction: we have not yet seen peak McDavid. We will see him starting this year.
Well said. I did not have high hopes through January of last season & enjoyed the run to the SCF. But there is a real potential in this year’s team which will be exciting to watch from day 1.
I like Bowman getting business done before the season with all the extensions, and frankly they’re all at fairly reasonable numbers. The knock-on effect of 97 signing for what he did is that it makes it easier for the team to ask players to take less $ to win.
That being said, these contracts all have some form of NMC/NTC and Bowman does not have a lot of flexibility to move contracts out. Walman and Ekholm got full NMCs, so the only players that can’t veto any trade are:
Janmark (10 team no trade list), Kapanen, Tomasek, Podkolzin/Savoie/Howard (not going anywhere), Kulak, Emberson, goalies.
Not a fan of those either. But Stan seems like he will ask guys to go. Yet to be seen if he will force players out
Only Kulak and Stech and goalies left that might be signed this season
Ekholm 3 years 4 mil per.
Great contract even if expected decline,
I was mocked by a poster last week for penciling in Walman and Ekholm at 11 mil per and here it is.
If Puckpedia is accurate, Ekholm has a full NMC, Walman has a full NMC until the last year of the deal when it shifts to a 15 team NTC.
Giving out that kind of trade protection helps bring the $ down.
I think I’m okay with those contracts but the Oilers roster has a lot of NMCs and if the eventually need to move some $ out, there aren’t a lot of contracts that can be moved.
Walman has full NMC for the first 4 years. 15 team no trade list for the last 3 years of his deal.
Ekholm does appear to have full NMC for the duration, but is also at an age that LTIRetirement is an option if he breaks down.
Not bad. Still a bit high for me given age, last season and two injured playoffs. I guess they can LTIR him. He’s tweaky now and that’s very unlikely to stop
Not sure about that. If the old Ekholm comes back its great but I’m not sure he signs this if he thinks he can get back to close to that level.
I think I would have had him play out the year first.
it’s a great contract in a rapidly rising cap world where he’s getting paid less than Cody Ceci
Yes, but he’s also at the age most players fall off considerably and he will be another year older when it kicks in.
That’s third pairing dollars for a guy who will play at least 1-2 pairing minutes for the foreseeable future. Bowman is adding up the wins in small ball GM moves.
That is really the case here. At least 1 season of top 4 d at 3rd pair cost on the new contract. Also, even as his speed declines Ekholm will be a very, very good 3rd pair guy who can mentor the new guys.
I looked and the Oilers D group is expensive. Most 3rd pair guys even on good teams are around 1M or less
I’m thinking about the cap at 104 to 107 when the contract kicks in in 26-27. Bouchard @10,Walman @7, Nurse @9, Regula@.775, Emberson@1.3 for a total of 32 with Ek. It depends on what happens with Kulak, but this deal suggests he won’t be higher than 4, if he stays at all. That’s 36 out of 104, which leaves 68 for F & G (and I think they need to find value for 3rd & 4th liners).Then you have guys like Leppanen & Akey pushing from below who will be at league minimums. I dunno, that feels sustainable.
Value contract!!
@domluszczyszyn
My model still loves Mattias Ekholm a great deal thanks to his strong resume. We’ll see if he can bounce back after returning from injury, but as long as he can stay at a second-pair level this is a great deal.
Top comp: Ryan Suter, who did stay at that level.
One more firm piece slotted into next year’s lineup. Taking a look at puckpedia, we have Kulak, Henrique, Kapanen, Stecher, Tomasek, Philp, and both goalies expiring from the big club, and about $18 million to replace them (based on the conservative cap projection).
$18m to fill both goalies, 2 forwards, and the press box. Kulak probably the only “big” money from that group (~4m given the new cap reality?) but maybe Akey or Leppanen or another takes his spot?
Feels like we’ll probably have between ~$11m and ~$13m to spend on goalies/a big splash. More if the $107m cap comes to fruition.
Wow. Thank you McDavid! We have a massive opportunity coming up!
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
#Oilers announce an extension for defenseman Mattias Ekholm: 3 years x $4 million.
8:04 AM · Oct 8, 2025