When it comes to finding linemates for Connor McDavid, I expect we’re in the “Mats Sundin lines up with Mikael Renberg and Jonas Hoglund” territory. It’s cool, and it’ll work to an extent, but you know Gary Roberts and Alex Mogilny are on the next line and there’s something tragic about the whole enterprise.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: The 2020-21 Oilers and value contracts: Career opportunities
- New Eric Duhatschek: For one season only, bring on the NHL’s Canada Division
- New Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ organizational depth chart: Where does Edmonton stand today?
- Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov’s KHL impact and what it means to the Oilers
- Lowetide: How many goals will Tyler Ennis score in 2020-21?
- Lowetide: Oilers extend Kris Russell, solve expansion issue
- Lowetide: Can Kyle Turris centre an outscoring No. 3 line in Edmonton?
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s skills and how Oilers coach Dave Tippett will deploy him
- Jonathan Willis: Can Oilers unlock James Neal’s scoring potential at five on five?
- Lowetide: Why is Ilya Konovalov no longer starting in the KHL?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 prospects, post-draft edition.
- Lowetide: Finding Connor McDavid’s optimal linemates among 2020-21 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: A cautious free agent period boosts an Oilers team still on the upswing
- Lowetide: Oilers bring back Mike Smith for another year.
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Tyson Barrie to a team-friendly deal.
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis in early hours of free agency.
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
MCDAVID’S LINE
Connor McDavid
Tyler Ennis
Zack Kassian
There’s a “one and done” aspect to a McDavid sortie, and that’s reflected in his possession numbers via Puck IQ. That isn’t fatal, but the Oilers need his line to dominate five on five (all of these numbers are five on five) and during 365 minutes against ‘middle’ competition the team was flailing. Part of that might have been his health, and I do think the line shuffling later in the year had a negative impact. A healthy McDavid will improve on these numbers no matter the linemates but if you see the Nuge on his line, the Puck IQ numbers will be the reason Tippett is doing a shuffle.
The Ennis numbers are from Ottawa, there wasn’t enough from the Edmonton games to post. It looks like he has pretty good possession numbers, and he can roar against middle and gritensity. That may mean he lands on the Turris line. He’s the winger not named Nuge or Yamamoto who can score 20 goals next season, so one imagines Ennis gets a long look in a skill position.
Zack Kassian had such a fine season going until he lost the plot, and I do think he’ll play a lot with McDavid when the season gets underway. There is competition, but one suspects that Yamamoto stays put and that Puljujarvi is brought along at a pace that sees plenty of time with Kyle Turris.
ILYA KONOVALOV
After a long layoff (26 days) Ilya Konovalov is back in net for Yaroslavl Lokomotiv. It’s in the first period at this moment, he has stopped all 10 shots faced.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the Lowdown, we get started at 10. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us at 10:20 and we’ll talk Joey Moss, the World Series and a full moon Halloween night. Scott Wheeler from The Athletic pops by at 10:40 to discuss his latest look at Evan Bouchard and what he has improved upon in recent months. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will be on the radio at 11 to talk NFL week 7, college football’s unpredictability this fall and the World Series. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
White serif font on black background is much too hard to read.
But as you agreed (I think) the other day, the Oilers could sign a $2M player.
If Kahun were willing to do that the Oilers could sign him today.
That is correct – a million dollar player can be signed and Nygard or Haas, for example, send to the AHL for a nominal difference in the cap.
I don’t imagine Kahun coming in under $2M – its a cap increase.
I don’t believe the demand is what you do. That’s fine. Don’t have to agree.
I don’t see many in Bramptom tuning in to watch the Heat and Condors play on a Monday afternoon.
Your cable provider is just picking up the signal though (paying for it) – not producing the game.
I imagine that a combo of Drai/Yama and a decently skilled LW (Ennis, Benson, etc.) will continue to be dynamic and outscore the opposition at a 55%-60% goal share rates.
I imagine that a trio of Nuge/McDavid/Kassian (JP) will outscore opposition at material rates in the 55%-60% range.
Nope, don’t want to take Nuge off the Drai line as first option, and I’ve stated as such.
At the same time, if the McDavid line, without Nuge, continues to simply saw off the opposition or nominally outscore them, something has to give as that’s not sustainable for this team being a contender.
NEW for The Athletic: Jay Woodcroft oversees a spike in Oilers prospect development
https://theathletic.com/2164614/2020/10/29/lowetide-jay-woodcroft-oversees-a-spike-in-oilers-prospect-development/
Per McKenzie:
. @HockeyCanada is expected to today announce dates and players invited to what will essentially be a month-long national junior team selection camp in Red Deer, Alta. Forty-plus players will attend the camp that starts in mid-November in preparation for 2021 @IIHF_wjc in EDM.
I wonder if Holloway will be released by Wisconsin to attend? Quarantine issues as well but the pilot project will be on at the Calgary airport which may make it feasible (can shorten quarantine to 2-3 days).
I think McDavid is almost certainly carrying Kassian, to an extent. That’s the way things go when you’re the best player in the world (and FWIW McDavid actually did have quality results with Lucic, compared to other players he’s played with).
On Kassian, I’m really just trying to say that he hasn’t pulled McDavid down, in response to many who think Kassian as McDavid’s winger is a problem that needs solving.
Kassian’s defensive record (GA/60) wasn’t good those years but as you noted earlier, the Oilers better players gave up more goals. I went and checked, Kassian’s most common centers those 3 years were Letestu (717min), McDavid (513), Nuge (462), Draisaitl (448), Brodziak (404).
If you drop the minutes (to >600) to let Brodziak in, the GA/60 for the above players goes (worst to best):
Draisaitl (3.03)
McDavid
Brodziak
Kassian
Nuge
Letestu (2.50)
I’m not at all arguing Kassian is a plus defensive player, but he sure doesn’t stand out as a negative influence on the players he’s played with. He’s also meshed quite well offensively with McDavid and put up significant 5v5 points.
If we step back, by any objective measure Kassian has performed like a first line forward at 5v5 in the 1.5 years he’s been playing with McDavid. He’s above average in GF% (and better than most of this teammates, McDavid included) and has scored in the top 75 players in the NHL.
If he was a 28 year-old KHL free agent (Dadanov or Gusev) or a 2017 first rounder and performed like Kassian has. Well everyone would be happy with that player, no?
I’m
OP for an optimist you are very defeatist
You post that signing bottom othe roster players does not inhibit signing other. better players. Then you post that better players cannot he signed as there is no room or money.
Most people ple that are able to get back to work are back to work. We are not undergoing daily Covid testing.
Not only is there pent up demand for hockey on TV but there is also pent up demand from advertisers who want to get their message out.
If a broadcaster has “the only game in town” and can deliver viewers, the cost of buying advertising will rise.
I would imagine companies like Tim Horton’s and Canadian Tire would be all over this.
I don’t have a dog in this fight but if my current sports cable package can offer Cornhole and Korean baseball and find an audience, I would think AHL hockey in winter might have some value to a cable provider starved for content in the middle of a global pandemic
I’m out of market so I have to subscribe every year ($200 for an 82 game schedule) for Oilers games
We’ll see what they have to offer this winter with a abbreviated schedule but if they offered a $10 add on for whatever AHL product they could scrape together I might pay for that
So you are saying that the logical way to proceed is to break up a line that really worked well and create a new line of Nuge, McDavid and Kassian. What you have done is effectively destroyed a line that does work well and will now attempt to find a left wing for the Draisaitl line. How did this work for the play in. Bottom line is regardless of where you play Nuge the team still needs a top six left wing. Please explain how moving Nuge makes the team better?
Interesting. Though that quote makes it sound like broadcasting an average NHL game is a losing proposition so part of the equation must be missing.
Anyway, with the suggestion earlier that NHL and AHL teams could travel together I wondered whether NHL/AHL double headers could become a thing. Would reduce basically all costs related to hosting a game (arena, staffing, broadcasts).
I have zero clue the actual costs or feasibility of any of the above, but there could well be a middle ground between theahl.com and a typical NHL broadcast that makes sense (or not).
The production cost for a nationally televised game vs. the one in-house camera following the puck around for AHL TV are not in the same ball-park I don’t believe.
———————–
This is from a Globe & Mail article from 2012 – I’m going to guess costs are higher now.
To understand the inverse logic of the lockout and its victims, you need to consider that an average regular season broadcast in Canada can have production costs of about $60,000; typical advertising revenue for that game comes in anywhere from $15,000 to $20,000 short of production costs.
I dont think it costs much to have one regular definition camera following the puck around as per AHL TV – some of them with a single announcer (Ryan Holt for the Condors) and some with none.
In the “commercial breaks”, you can hear Ryan Holt talking and essentially producing his own broadcast.
What significant additional production costs would there be to broadcast it on TV, above what the AHL.com does already?
Well, yes, I do have inside information on some of his business ventures but that opinion has nothing to do with that information and is based on the fact that Daryl Katz continues to spend considerable funds on all things that could help the Oilers – the close to 20 players playing in Europe is at a material cost to Katz, the signing of players like Alan Quine to one-way contracts even though he’s almost assuredly to spend most (if not all) of the year in the AHL, even the two-way contracts he’s signed have guaranteed money close to $400K in some cases, etc.
I can’t imagine a seasons worth of Condors/Comets/Heat games being broadcast nationally.
There is no way there would be a market for that that would generate enough revenue.
Thank you for sharing the link. Powerful story. We all saw the guy singing the anthem but only the players got to see what Sam shared. Joey was an incredible human being.
Exactly why are you fully confident Katz will fund this?
Do you have inside information or are you just #toobin?
You knock yourself out
Go play with your small sample sizes
Squirrel
Who has been better in the past or present is meaningless.
I was basically saying that the idea won’t work because the Oilers organization would require that and the flames organization probably wouldn’t go for it.
Then again, I’m fully confidant that Daryl Katz will have no issue funding excess costs related to the Condors in full and have much less confidence in Murray Edwards and Co’s willingness to do the same and they very well could allow for such a deal if Katz is funding the costs.
There is a huge difference between a national broadcast on television and a sketchy feed from amateurs in the AHL.
Advertising would easily cover the production costs.
You can consider it worthless – I will consider it something worth exploring.
Given all the AHL games are available on AHL TV and the price being so nominal, I don’t think the demand will be nearly as high as you think and the profit vs. the cost of production would make that a non-starter.
Can’t see a TV contract for AHL games.
I doubt that there will be vaccines available for hockey players** in February.
**except for the Calgary Flames who will break into the front of the line again.
And here’s that comment right on cue. Lol
Something about a pot and a black kettle…
JP clearly showed that McDavid’s results have been good without Leon and should be expected to stay that way. You choose to blow that off and continue repeating that McDavid needs help on his line. Cause if you keep saying it, it has to be true.
You then finally acknowledge the numbers but counter that recent results havent been good. You use the same sample size as the “unsustainable” 93-29-56 line has playing together to “prove” your point. I’m sure if you repeat all this 5 or 10 more times, it will be cemented as gospel
Unless HH comments in the next little bit to squirrel you in a new direction…
This is all so very tedious
There’s a decent chance that a vaccine will be available by February
And I’m sure professional athletes will be one of the first who find a way to get it
There must be a Sutter available 🙂
True.
But just off the top of my head….
Operating the lighting, sound system operators.
Referees and linesmen.
Public address announcers.
Zamboni drivers.
Ice scrapers
Time keepers
Penalty box attendants
Stats keepers
Goal judges
Dressing room and washroom cleaners
DAILY COVID TESTING FOR EVERYONE INVOLVED.
Doesn’t seem like much until you extrapolate it over scores of games when it becomes a massive expense when no revenue is being produced.
I doubt they would. Anymore than Edmonton would. Hard to make that work imo.
They’re hosting hockey games anyway. NHL games.
Georgexs,
We had a discussion a couple weeks back about QualComp and QualTeam. You had posted some interesting stats about various players GF%, DFF%, etc vs different caliber opposition (elites to 4th line), showing little variance in the player results when analyzing the “WoodMoney” measure of QualComp.
Based on the data you posed the question: Does QualComp matter, (or maybe does the WoodMoney stat matter), given the inconclusive results.
I suggested that Yes, it still did, maintaining that there’s a high correlation between QComp and QTeam, meaning that if “Darnell Nurse” was facing the other team’s top line then he was likely doing so with other of the Oilers top players on the ice with him. When Nurse plays against Pettersson or Mark Stone, he usually does so with McDavid or Draisaitl as his centre.
I like to think of the five skaters on the ice as an equation, multiplying the relative strengths of each player against a perfect 1.000, to arrive at an aggregate number. Kind of like NHL video games’ player rankings, then nerdified.
Observe:
The Oilers ice a fivesome of McDavid (0.97), Neal (0.72), Kassian (0.77), Nurse (0.82) and Bear (0.74). Collectively they have a team score of .97 x .72 x .77 x .82 x .74 = .326
They face off against Monahan .85 x Gaudreau .91 x Lindholm .84 x Kylington .69 x Stone .64 = .287
My back-of-the-napkin approach had the Oilers outshooting the Flames 32.6 – 28.7 over a period (say 60 mins). Makes sense – the Flames have a better overall forward group and would count in Nurse’s QComp or Woodmoney as facing “top opposition”, but those forwards are skating with the 3rd pair limiting their overall effectiveness.
In summary, Quality of Competition or Woodmomey stats are useful indicators but in my amateur estimation it’s all part of a more complicated overall evaluation of the ever-changing game state (not to mention zonestart, shift length, and which team had the flu).
Discuss …
Why would Calgary agree to that when the Heat have historically been better than the Condors?
Perhaps…but I’m dubious.
Gearing up an arena to host a hockey game is far more expensive than having it sit idle.
While I’m sure they could work out a deal to cover their costs, it most certainly be free as some have suggested.
1) I’m not sure why you aren’t able to acknowledge that the rates those three were producing at is simply not sustainable – this will not create a trio of 100 point player I don’t imagine. I’m not posting my opinion as fact but you ignore posts talking about the assured drop in production and goal share (except for one reference to the Bergeron line which also went to prove how unsustainable this lines’ scoring rates are).
2) I thought playing with McDavid was most forward’s dream – now “covering on McDavid’s line” is Nuge being hard-done by?
3) Related to point 1, your suggestion is about maximizing points for a few players and not about winning. Winning on this team requires two material outscoring lines and, recently, in 2020, McDavid hasn’t been able to do that. I really hope that another LW can help McDavid get there but I do think that Yama/Drai with a 3rd skilled player can be a material outscoring line and Nuge/McDavid can as well if there – until another option is there for McDavid – it might just be Benson or Puljujarvi getting more NHL reps and “being ready”.
Does ownership matter or revenue dispersal?
Those venues planning to be hosting concerts or trade shows anytime this spring?
Nope.
The arena operators would be delighted to host an AHL schedule for cents on the dollar vs what they would charge promoters in normal times. They have to cover utility costs anyway, so any additional revenue to offset their large fixed costs would be welcome.
Not unless its run by, and coached by, the Oilers (Woody and company).
The no-AHL affiliate decision (and shared team with WB-Scranton) set the organization back big time, in my opinion.
I do think there are likely to be many more players signing off PTOs than in most years but I don’t think the scenario listed above applies to those two guys. I’m sure both guys have legit offers right now from various teams and are weighing options or waiting for a more significant deal or fit. I don’t see either of them taking on that type of risk so that they can sign in Edmonton and do the team a solid timing wise.
defmn,
Sam’s words, beautiful tribute to a fine man.
https://www.theplayerstribune.com/posts/sam-gagner-joey-moss-edmonton-oilers-hockey
Anything under 200 minutes should be considered small sample size
Anything under 100 minutes is almost worthless
Can’t “swipe from LTIR” until Klef is placed on LTIR on day 1 of the season – there will be PTO players that can be signed at that time but I don’t imagine Kahun will be one
Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season but, as we’ve discussed, there is no chance that Holland does it – it would be a nightmare scenario for the regular season day to day management of the team (or any intent on improving externally during the season)..
I am 100% willing to give it a try (although I don’t see any team taking on Chiasson without an apx 3 round pick coming with him – too maybe legit free agents out there for cheaper than $2M).
It looks great but then I remember the long history of players scoring at solid rates and having solid metrics in the bottom/middle six and such rates proving not repeatable when moved up the lineup and asked to play more minutes and more minutes against top opposition. Worth a try though if the contract was reasonable. If it doesn’t, we do know the player is effective down the lineup.
McDavid and Nygard certainly rhymed – 51 minutes but 6:1 goals is ridiculous (especially in 51 minutes).
Sorry, I wrote that post without reading the comments Section including this comment.
Not in 2020 McDavid wasn’t – he was 50% without Drai (and with Drai). Maybe it was just a blip, maybe it was due to Kassian falling off the rails, but, whatever the reason, McDavid at 50% over any length of time will not lead to a contending team. Notwithstanding Godot’s opinion, Nuge/Drai/Yama will come down from their levels, in my opinion, and the PP likely as well.