I was convinced of the 2010 Oilers draft. Four selections in the top 48, the first overall selection, plus a defenseman with a giant wingspan, a two-way scoring winger and a few promising names drafted later on. Five years after the draft, injuries and trades left the Oilers with only Taylor Hall, Tyler Pitlick and Brandon Davidson. They were all gone by the summer of 2017.
THE ATHLETIC
- New Lowetide: Oilers question marks as training camp nears
- Lowetide: Xavier Bourgault leads strong group of Oilers prospects graduating to pro hockey this fall
- Lowetide: Predicting Kailer Yamamoto’s Oilers goal total in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Where should the Oilers deploy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
WHAT HAPPENED?
Draft plus one was solid to excellent. Taylor Hall was in the NHL (22-20-42 in 65 games) and exciting the fans with the possibilities. The early forward picks delivered solid NHLE’s (Tyler Pitlick 27.4; Curtis Hamilton 32.8; Ryan Maretindale 33.8) and two defensemen (Martin Marincin, Brandon Davidson) plus goaltender Tyler Bunz all had strong years. That’s a quality start.
In year two, Hall had a shoulder injury, and a concussion, missing 21 games. His total games missed over his first two season (38) approached half of one season, meaning Edmonton employed Hall for just over 75 percent of the available games. Tyler Pitlick went straight to pro, scoring 7-16-23 in 62 games. He was the No. 8 scorer in Oklahoma City among forwards.
For his career, Hall has played in less than 85 percent of his available NHL games. Pitlick’s early career was injury-riddled, Hamilton, Davidson, on it goes. Martin Marincin failed to develop into an NHL regular, Davidson had the look of one but injuries (specifically Matthew Tkachuk and Dustin Byfuglien) had enormous impact.
Why do I bring this up? It begins early and has an enormous impact on every draft. Here’s the 2021 draft one year gone:
- Xavier Bourgault played in 63 percent of his team’s game last season. He missed the skating portion of orientation camp and the WJ’s in August recovering from a core muscle injury. He took a head hit at the WJ’s. It was a tough season for the young winger.
- Jake Chiasson played in just 29 percent of his WHL games due to an injury suffered at Oilers development camp. He missed six months due to injury.
Finally, here’s a look at the top picks since 2010 and the percentage of games missed since NHL arrival. Keep in mind, these men would still be developing skills 18-22, so any time away from the game curtailed potential.
- Leon Draisaitl 97 percent
- Connor McDavid 91 percent
- Darnell Nurse 89 pecent
- Jesse Puljujuarvi 87 percent
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 87 percent
- Taylor Hall 83 percent
As players age, they tend to lose more games due to injury and eventually playing less due to age and erosion. Leon Draisaitl is exceptional in so many ways, but his attendance record since 2015 is examplary. Connor McDavid has been healthier than the memory suggests, owing to the catastrophic nature of losing him for any game at all. Darnell Nurse has been durable considering the position he plays, Jesse Puljujarvi (this is the last two seasons only) has had Covid, shoulder and other maladies. Nuge and especially Hall have been impacted by injuries. It’s part of a draft and even though we look past it, there is a chance someone like Kailer Yamamoto or Xavier Bourgault will lose NHL games. Hell, Dylan Holloway has already missed some. I used to write novellas on the subject, posters would get mad at me. One time I wrote “Is Oscar Klefbom the new Pouliot?” and there was damn near an uprising. Anyway, here’s the list I published in 2011 about injuries 2001-10:
- 2001: Doug Lynch: A wrist injury lingered and then a knee injury after being dealt to the Blues organization derailed a promising NHL career. That wrist injury came on the heels of a very impressive AHL season, and washed away his future.
- 2001: Dan Baum: Was a long shot prospect who had an agitator style and fell victim to concussions. Injuries ended career.
- 2002: Jesse Niinimaki: Niinimaki showed a lot of promise until a (Guy Flaming described it as a “devastating injury”) severe shoulder injury 10 games into the 2003-04 season ended his year.
- 2002: JF Dufort: Suffered a career ending concussion late in 2002-03. Injuries ended career.
- 2003: Marc Pouliot: He was actually injured before the draft–at the Top Prospects game in 2003 when Dion Phaneuf leveled him with a vicious (and clean) check. In the summer of 2003 he got hurt at the Canadian WJC camp in Calgary (hip) and that had a major impact on his 18-year old season. It also hurt his performance at the Oilers rookie camp just two months after being drafted. In November 2003 he suffered an abdominal injury and missed the Q/Russia prospects game and he played on 42 QMJHL games that season, finally having surgery in Montreal in summer 2004 to repair the abdominal tissues. He played 3 weeks with a broken wrist during the 2003-04 season. Mono just before the Stanley run. Possibly a major impact on his career.
- 2003: JF Jacques: Although fairly healthy during his junior career and early pro seasons, JFJ lost an enormous amount of time and some of his skill set due to (back) injuries. He’s apparently healthy and hoping to land another Oiler contract, but injuries had a major impact on his career.
- 2003: Mikhail Zoukov: Suffered a “serious injury” that wiped out his 04-05 season. Unkown impact on career.
- 2004: Rob Schremp: Suffered a serious knee injury at the end of his second AHL season and required surgery. Unknown impact on career.
- 2005: Taylor Chorney: Sprained knee spring 2008 right at the end of his college career. He also suffered a knee injury in 10-11 while with the Oilers, I don’t know if it was the same knee and of course unknown impact on career.
- 2006: Theo Peckham: Suffered a shoulder injury late in the 09-10 season; suffered concussion one year later.
- 2007: Alex Plante: Suffered back and concussion problems in the year after he was drafted.
- 2008: Jordan Eberle: Sprained left ankle during rookie NHL season, 2010-11.
- 2010: Taylor Hall: Ankle injury during rookie NHL season, 2010-11.
I think the Pouliot experience might have guided the Oilers in mapping out Bourgault’s summer. When these young men have played a lot and been hurt in a calendar year, rest is probably the most valuable thing for player development.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
Jamo is back! 10-2 today, we’ll continue our tour around the NFL and I’ll rage against the machine demanding some NHL news that will not come. MLB and more, your comments welcome at 10-1260, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Just noodling around on Cap Friendly and noticed Arizona has 14 picks in the 2024 draft.
Does anyone know what the highest number ever in one draft is?
I remember reading that there were 25 rounds or something in the drafts back in the 70’s.
Arizona should just give those picks away to someone else. They’re terrible at developing prospects. From 2011 (RNHs draft year) to (2015) they don’t have a single player left that they drafted still on their team … that includes 6 selections in the first round and 7 in the second round. In 2016 they took Keller and Chychrun … they are now trying to trade Chychrun and they’ve already traded their first round pick in 2017 for Kessel.
They haven’t selected a franchise altering player sine OEL in 2009.
Draft picks are magic beans that do not overcome incompetent ownership/management.
New management now, though. Armstrong is a considerable step up from his predecessor imo.
Wonderboy pulled a Eakins and set the franchise back 7 years.
I believe the record is 31, by St. Louis in 1978. Wayne Babych, Jim Nill, Paul MacLean, Bob Froese, Risto Siltanen were the only NHL players.
Brent Wallace
I’m told the #sens remain in pursuit of Jacob Chychryn. There have been talks this week. The ask remains two 1st round picks and a high end prospect plus Arizona would also take Zaitsev.
Shawn Simpson
@TSNSimmer
Arizona ask on Chychrun was huge at the deadline, no deal, huge at the draft, no deal. Sure other teams are interested, and everyone knows Ottawa wants the player, and the player would prefer the Sens. But Ottawa should offer nothing more than a top D prospect, a 1st and 2nd.
That’s a steep ask but I would be tempted.
Barrie, next year’s 1st, Foegele – what else would it take?
Nurse – Ceci
Chychrun – Bouchard
Broberg – Kulak
That looks solid to me.
J.P or Yamo a 1st and a prospect.
Have to move Barrie for the money.
Easily done but Holland and the gang really like Barrie and so do I he scored the big goal against L.A. His D game in his own end has improved immensely plus he played with a bit of edge which we all love except for a few posters that have never played the game.
All true but the mix is better with Chychrun imo.
I can picture the Oilers winning a cup with Barrie hoisting it 4-5th in line. I liked Smith but no way a 40 year-old is winning 16 games of the hardest trophy in sports to win. I’m full bullish on Campbell! Oilers or at 17-1 a G-note will give a nice return of Mad Money. Flames by the way or 19-1 which seems to be a bit high after losing 2/3 thirds of the best line in Hockey.
For a man who likes truculence and physical hockey I find it amusing that you are so pleased with Barrie who is unable to check his coat at a restaurant . He is the exact opposite of what you tout as required to win a championship! 💁
You need all kinds on a team to win cup. All I know when I see Leon Connor Kane Barrie and Nurse on the ice pressing as a 5 man unit there’s only one team that compares to the speed and ingenuity and that would be the old CCCP Viktor Tikonhov teams. Viktor who in my opinion was one of the greatest Coaches ever.
The teams that win Cups typically have a high degree of continuity from one year to the next.
I doubt they would see any value in Foegele given how many better players remain without contracts.
Perhaps a 1st, Jesse and Samorukov.
I expect they will demand a young D to replace Chychrun.
If they are willing to take Zaitsev they would definitely take Barrie. Only way to make the money work which is what Ottawa is also telling them apparently.
As I said it is a steep price but depending on what the internal dialogue is between Puljujarvi and the team I still might be tempted and I am a big fan of Samorukov’s.
With Keith’s retirement opening up the cap room & Kane returning it’s go time. Still a touch early but sometimes you have to hold your nose, close your eyes and jump.
LD: Nurse, Chychrun, Kulak, Broberg (if they don’t insist on his in the deal), Samorukov
RD: Ceci, Bouchard, Deharnais, Kesslering, Kemp
Need right shot D.
Thanks to Tippett Samorukov value has dropped faster than a hookers knickers on payday at the Mine.
Not even a little bit.
His one game has zero impact on his value or future as an NHLer. His trade value essentially disappeared when, on the cusp of making the NHL, he got another major injury which put him out for months.
After three big mistakes in 4 shifts, directly leading to 3 high danger chances against (and 2 goals), its tough to put him back out there.
In any event, Samorukov had a great end to the season and, presuming he gets to mid-October healthy, likely earns a spot on the NHL team.
Foegele scores 18-20 Goals this year.
It would take Broberg instead of Barrie I’m sure.
I don’t think they’d want Barrie (who makes $5MM of real cash in his last season) and I’m sure Broberg would be their main prospect target.
Way too many injuries in the past with this player for me to consider even close to the required package.
Of course NHL teams will have the option to suspend unvaccinated players, again, if they can’t participate due to their status (without exemption).
Both Canada and the US have additional requirements/restrictions in place for unvaccinated.
I could be wrong but I believe Canada requires unvaccinated air travellers to quarantine (including Canadian citizens) and I believe the US requires vaccination for air travel in for non citizens.
The NHL cannot allow players to not follow government law and, therefore, unvaccinated may not be able to play certain games.
—————
I have zero appetite for any discussion vis-a-vis the government requirements themselves (or the vaccines themselves) but simply how they relate to the NHL policy and how they essentially had no choice.
Your gaslighting didn’t work today.
I don’t even know what that means.
Updated covid protocols for next season.
https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-22361/nhl-nhlpa-announce-covid-19-protocol-for-2022-23-season
Looks like no change from a quick scan.
Yeah…I couldn’t spot anything significantly different.
Just housekeeping I suspect.
@ashifmawji
For those who want to wish Ben a farewell, the procession will be passing by Rogers Place around 10am. Please arrive Fri Aug 19 9:45am and on the sidewalk on either side (under Ford Hall). Ben posters will be handed out by @kwcsyeg
to the first 1,000. @m_dan25
@EdmontonOilers
Mike Stelter
@m_dan25
This is so great. Ben would absolutely love this https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/2764.svg Thank you, Ashif
The impact of injury on a player’s development in the 18-22 age span is another reason to be really careful with pushing guys up the ladder too quickly. The top euro players tend to play pro as early as 16-17 which can be great for development but the higher pace, the bigger stronger opponents and the fact that in pro hockey you’re supposed to play through pain much more than in juniors or development leagues are all factors that increase injury risk. And sometimes the focus is too much on how physically ready the player is(usually meaning some combo of how many inches over 6 feet and amount of gym muscles you have) rather than how mentally ready they are, can they keep up with play, are they comfortable enough to tell the coaching staff when something is off etc.
A young player going up against pro players should never be just good enough to keep up, they need to be truly comfortable at that level.
The fact that many of the kids aren’t finished growing is why the draft used to be at 18 years of age. Over training before the body is ready seems to have become somewhat of a problem.
I don’t believe that you factored in the entire shortened season that McDavid played at 90% because of the intentional stick to the skates by Giordano?
You’re correct.
The only player that tried to get retribution on Gio was Mr.Sam Gagner. Your buddy Kassian just lost interest in the face smashing part of the game.
There is a mental as well as a physical cost to filling the role that Kassian did. I will personally give him a pass for conquering his demons and turning his life around.
Food for thought remember the rumour a few years ago where Kassian hurt his back in some sort of falling out of a tree accident a month before the season started. Well he totally became neutered after I remember hearing that
It seems the Sharks might *now* be interested in trading Reimer. <Facepalm/>
https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-rumors-august-15-2022/
Prediction: In a twist of irony, I foresee the Maple Leafs trading a 1st round pick along with salary retained on Matt Murray to acquire James Reimer later in the season. He’ll win Toronto exactly three playoff games, ending Kyle Dubas’ tenure, and continuing to leave the Leafs’ system bereft of prospects.
Martin Marincin and Tyler Pitlick.. ahh, I remember when people would argue a lot about those 2 on this blog. Those were the days.
Tyler Toffoli scored 20-29-49 last season. Those were quite the arguments
I had wanted the oilers to draft Toffoli back then. Toffoli was one of those players that put up huge numbers in junior then fell in the draft with rumours of a bad attitude or slow boots or something.
That 2010 draft is pretty weird looking back (or maybe all of them are that way if you look close enough).
Tofolli did score well, but all of he, Christian Thomas, Devante Smith-Pelly, Ryan Spooner and Petr Straka were CHL forwards, drafted in the 2010 2nd round, who topped 1.0 point/game (Tofolli the best of them at 1.21 points/game).
This after Ryan Johansen and Nino Niederreiter were drafted in the top 5 despite not quite reaching the 1.0 point/game bar.
You were right about Tofolli, but drafting seems really hard.
Man. I remember LT coining phrases like “Rob Schremp hockey” and “get your shine box” like it was yesterday.
I could be wrong but I recall the shine box was coined by Dellow.
I think it was Showerhead
I thought it was McTavish… but I am willing to be corrected, Just ask my ex.
Holloway, Broberg, Samorukov, Bourgault all missing serious development time (some more than others) on their first few years post draft. Niemelainen, Kemp, Lavoie as well.
I really liked Pitlick’s skating and moxie. I thought for sure he’d be a Blue Collar Plumber scoring 18-22 goals being part of a hard to play against 3rd line.
Did seem like a perfect fit to those 90s teams. Oilers moved on him just as it seemed he was putting it together (not that he’s been any screaming hell).
I wonder if sports injuries impact a team less and less. Sports medicine advancements, player training, nutrition, load management ect, ect should all being helping more players playing more peak performance minutes.
Look no further than McDavid’s alternative recovery from his MCL tear. A few years earlier, they are pinning his knee and he never skates the same again.
It should help but they may use said knowledge to push the limits rather than err on the side of the players health.
I find it crazy when some suggest a benefit of 11/7 is finding more minutes for McDavid and Drai. Taking away the fact that Woody could simply give them extra shifts, any time he wants, even with 12 forwards, the goal should be reducing minutes.
I take any win where those guys are closer to 18 minutes over one where they are used 22, 24 or even 26.
Lesser minutes for those guys should be the goal on any given night.
Pertaining to yesterdays comment by Cowboy Bill about Bill “Cowboy” Flett.
LT or Admin can you please send Cowboy Bill my contact email, I have some information for him. CB please reach out with “Cowboy Bill” in the subject bar 🙂
I hope this post is ok?
Three Cheers for Cowboy Bill Flett! Hurrah!
Huzzah!
His sister in law was one of my fave teachers in high school! Cool lady.
Sorry Tapdog I don’t know how to get in touch with you . I am curious about any info on Bill Flett . Could you share this info with all of us ? Or maybe get my email from admin or LT .
I sent Admin an email asking for your email or for them to send you mine.
I’m just here for the Talking Heads references.
Can we classify LT as a talking head?
Simple answer is no. He is not payed by the NHL or any of their broadcast associates that dictate what is and isn’t admissible. His integrity is not only credible but in my opinion exemplary!
Same as it ever was.
You may find yourself, in a big beautiful arena, surrounded by a beautiful team with beautiful prospects, and ask yourself – “Well, how did I get here?”
I-25
Stony Plain Road
From the decade of darkness to the Road to Perdition.