This is Mike Kesselring. The Edmonton Oilers traded the young defenseman at the deadline in the Nick Bjugstad deal. Kesselring, like young defenders Dmitri Samorukov, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and others in recent history, created enough value to be useful in trade. That’s part of the process for NHL teams and the Oilers have been doing it since trading Walt Poddubny to the Toronto Maple Leafs in March of 1982.
This winter, the club might try adding value by giving young players some NHL “at-bats” to show what they can do in the world’s best league. Ken Holland may want to borrow a page from Sam Pollock, the inspired general manager of the dynasty Montreal Canadiens of the 1960’s and 1970’s. What would that look like?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft (and keep) a world class agitator in 2023?
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers 2022-23 predictions revisited
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: How Oilers GM Ken Holland built the team and the cost to get this far
- DNB: Oilers digest season that was, know next year is ‘Stanley Cup or it’s a failure’
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
SUDDEN SAM
On January 13, 1971 it’s fairly certain Boston Bruins general manager Milt Schmidt was unaware of what was to conspire against him and force him out of his job. The man who played a HHOF career for the Bruins, the man who had been GM for the 1970 Stanley and would also be there in the role in 1972 probably had a low stress day.
Meanwhile, Sam Pollock, the general manager of the Montreal Canadiens, pulled the trigger on a massive deal that would have enormous impact on the playoffs in 1971. He acquired star winger Frank Mahovlich (14-18-32 in 35 games at the time) from the Detroit Red Wings.
Heading to Motown was stylish sniper Mickey Redmond (40GP, 14-16-30), veteran two-way forward Bill Collins (6-2-8, also in 40 games) and young center Guy Charron. He played 15 games with the Habs before the deal, scoring two goals and four points. He was a fixture for the AHL Montreal Voyageurs, scoring 5-13-18 in 23 games.
Pollock paid in full but he could afford it, there was so much talent in the system. Redmond was unique but would encounter back issues and would be out of the league by 1977. Collins was a solid journeyman forward who had some 20-goal seasons, and Charron emerged as a solid offensive player on some truly poor NHL teams.
Redmond’s replacement was Phil Roberto. Whereas Redmond scored 14 goals in 40 games, Roberto scored 14 in 32 games. Gack! In December of 1971, Roberto was traded to the St. Louis Blues for defenseman-forward Jimmy Roberts. The right wing depth chart sans Roberto went Yvan Cournoyer, Guy Lafleur (who also played some center), Rejean Houle (a brilliant two-way winger) and Claude Larose (who skated upright like David Perron does now). Ridiculous.
THE OILERS
Edmonton hasn’t been able to build value in its players to the same degree. The obvious reason is the team hasn’t been able to deliver the same level of talent as Pollock’s Habs did back in the day. No one can, because the ‘gifted hockey prospect whose father is French’ rule has been abolished.
Edmonton did have 10 years to build value (2007-2016) but at almost every turn the club would shoot itself in the foot. Teemu Hartikainen struggled to score in the NHL early, so they flushed him in favor of Jesse Joensuu, whose back was so bad he couldn’t play.
Even when the team did build value, like Jeff Petry, management would get cute and walk the valuable piece to free agency on a “challenge” contract. Immature management does a lot of damage.
In recent seasons, the Oilers have been developing talent and using those pieces to contend. In the last year, the wheels feel off two of the team’s heavy investments, Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto.
What happened? Let’s start with Jesse Puljujarvi. He was a value contract until 2022-23, when he reached the $3 million level on his AAV. Let’s look at JP’s five-on-five scoring and outscoring since his rookie year.
- 2016-17: 1.45 pts-60; 69 pct goal share; 53 pct expected goal share.
- 2017-18: 1.25 pts-60; 48 pct goal share; 52 pct expected goal share.
- 2018-19: 0.80 pts-60; 33 pct goal share; 45 pct expected goal share.
- 2020-21: 1.53 pts-60; 53 pct goal share; 56 pct expected goal share.
- 2021-22: 1.62 pts-60; 65 pct goal share; 60 pct expected goal share.
- 2022-23: 1.18 pts-60; 42 pct goal share; 54 pct expected goal share.
Puljujarvi was most always contributing to outscoring, and he had a couple of passable offensive seasons after returning from Finland. However, he was on a value deal, and once the $3 million contract was signed, well things changed as they do for all players who graduate to real money. Ken Holland traded him to the Carolina Hurricanes at the deadline, in an effort to offload cap and use it in the Mattias Ekholm deal. The return, Patrik Puistola, remains unsigned with hours to his free agency counting down to zero.
Kailer Yamamoto’s career path:
- 2017-18: 0.50 pts-60; 33 pct goal share; 64 pct expected goal share.
- 2018-19: 0.31 pts-60; 31 pct goal share; 49 pct expected goal share.
- 2019-20: 3.16 pts-60; 68 pct goal share; 52 pct expected goal share.
- 2020-21: 1.28 pts-60; 57 pct goal share; 50 pct expected goal share.
- 2021-22: 1.48 pts-60; 49 pct goal share; 49 pct expected goal share.
- 2022-23: 1.53 pts-60; 57 pct goal share; 53 pct expected goal share.
Yamamoto is a complementary offensive player (like Puljujarvi) whose goal share and expected goal share has been consistent over these past seasons. He is a little shy as a scorer, same as Puljujarvi.
None of that would be a factor this summer if he was making $1.175 million a year. The fact he is making $3.1 million in 2023-24 is the reason he can’t stay. Seriously.
There is no obvious replacement, just less expensive ones. We can say all day that Dylan Holloway or Klim Kostin or Raphael Lavoie could play with Leon Draisaitl and perform better than Yamamoto. We don’t know that to be true.
We do know all of those men will be less expensive. Yamamoto has some nice things on his resume. The cap hit is the issue.
CREATING MORE VALUE
The Oilers organization has created value in the last several years, but men like Evan Bouchard are keepers and needed only opportunity to make it happen.
Men who could be showcased this season include Holloway, Broberg, Raphael Lavoie, Noah Philp, Cam Dineen and Olivier Rodrigue. That could and should (imo) some NHL time if possible.
Why? Edmonton has already offloaded much of its prospect depth and many of its draft picks. The prospect pool is becoming more shallow each season. Along with signing graduating juniors, college men and Euros not drafted by other teams, the club badly needs to showcase some of the talent pushing for NHL time. Dmitri Samorukov may have had more value with an NHL look, and I do think a player like Noah Philp is both NHL-ready and not famous enough to bring back real value.
Is there a team that does it well? The Tampa Bay Lightning are an example of a team that uses the Sam Pollock model for creating value. Sometimes it works well for both sides, as was the case when TBL send Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk (plus picks) to the Chicago Blackhawks for Brandon Hagel. I’m not saying Tyler Benson could have covered that bet, because I know Raddysh was a better player and Katchouk has other things to recommend him.
I am saying the Oilers could do a better job of putting their young and possibly trade useful talent in the best possible light. I do think Kesselring is a recent exception.
At the very worst if both Drai and McDavid want to go UFA – you ask Drai to extend for one year to give them three more real shots at a cup together. I’m perfectly at peace with letting them both go at the end of 3 years if that’s what they want. Don’t care about assets or trades. Of course you want them to be Oilers for life – but if that’s not in the cards – I’m grateful for the years of service. It’s up to them.
Drain will be one of the most valued free agents in history if he goes that route. Why would he take such a risk on a one year contract? If he gets injured he’d be putting one hundreds million dollars on the block.
There ya go. I’ve been saying that we have a two-year window to win the cup.
The very reasonable DNB is now saying the same thing.
https://theathletic.com/4556562/2023/05/27/oilers-stanley-cup-mcdavid-contracts/
Once upon a time DNB was the cool kid on the block pushing Kenny hard over the Kane signing.
He was panic trading guys left and right after the LA game in January.
Like all fans he has a bias and from my reading his bias is one that perpetually shoots short term instead of long.
The window is open until McLeon decide to hang up their blades. These aren’t normal players. They’ll be scoring 40-60-100 in their retirement season. You’ll be able to slot guys in for two decades and the reload window is already established with the Hyman, Nuge and Kane contracts rolling off.
As others have said – you trade the over-paid wingers. You also do your best to hang on to all the defensemen. Why trade Kulak for peanuts in July only to trade for the same guy or worse more in March? Keeping Kulak means you don’t have to spend assets at the trade deadline for defensive depth. So as much as I like Foegle – Holloway can replace him – and Kostin can replace Yamomoto. Shop in the bargain bin for a wingers like Brown or 4C if we can’t re-sign Bjugstad.
The biggest area of growth this team needs is behind the bench and between the ears of the core leadership on the ice.
This is it in a nut shell.. as long as we can get Kostin to take a small raise only. Don’t fall in love with Bjugstad. There will be some determined hard working third and forth line wingers left standing without a chair a couple weeks into UFA season. There may even be one or two at the start that the scouts have recognized that want a chance to play on a team with Connor and Leon and sign with some value to the team. Otherwise Holloway should take a spot unless injury, Lavoy and or Philp may grab a spot. If we sign Benson again ( I think he’ll try another team) and he stays steady on the condors, we can call him up to take a fourth line roll from time to time until the trade deadline when we shore things up for the playoff run. I’d like to see them worry about forward players that have the potential for being helpful on the defensive side of the plays. We scored the most goals in the NHL even with Yamo not meeting expectations of a top six forward .. everyone seems worried about getting a top six guy that can score enough, but I think we need a guy in the top 6 who can not impede the skill on the top six and still complement to some degree, but to be a defensive grinder/ conscience for the top 6. But I don’t know who this guy is .. there’s not many Danaults out there. Especially cheap diamonds in the rough .. it could be something that in years to come Holloway could be pruned for .. he has the motor, has he speed , strength .. can he learn the defensive part quickly? Who could they get this year ?
One thing I’ve been meaning to mention for a couple of days since I heard it relating to the cap from this coming season.
I know there has been talk about the potential for the cap rising more than $1MM upon a negotiated agreement of the NHL/NHLPA. I do know (from Friedman, Seravelli, etc.) that Marty Walsh and Bettman have met in the recent weeks.
If I’m not mistaken, its really Seravelli that has spear-headed the cap going up potential. He is the one that a few weeks ago said that he’d be surprised if it didn’t and thought it would be close to a surety. I haven’t heard or read anything like that from any of the other guys that generally report info on such things (i.e. Friedman).
Anyways, a few days ago, I can’t remember if it on the ON Everyday pod or on with Stauffer) but Seravelli was talking about a big contract to Severson not being a huge deal because the cap is going up materially- he then said “it may not be for this season but it is happening over the next few seasons”.
For me, that was a marked change in Seravelli’s info/intel/thoughts with respect to next year’s cap and I think he’s softened ALOT on thinking it going higher than $83.5MM
So in addition to 5% real inflation in the economy, the players are going to accept another 5% inflation in the cap. Which effectively means that 80% of the players who have contracts are going to passively accept a 10% real pay cut in purchasing power by agreeing to a large cap increase.
Cap increases not directly tied to revenue increases dollar for dollar percentage wise are PAY CUTS.
For players with long duration contracts agreeing to a cap increase that is ahead of revenue increase is an insane decision.
The revenues HAVE increased to a place where 50% of HRR is more than the current cap, however, the players still owe some of the escrow balance to the owners and, per the 2020 MOU for the extended CBA, the cap does not increase more than $1MM in a year until that balance is settled.
I believe the players would have had to agree to a mechanism to wipe that debt out faster and with 20% of salaries already going to escrow (I believe that was the % this season) I’m not shocked they are hesitant to push that higher.
Next year should see a double whammy. The debt should be paid off sometime in season meaning they might get some of the escrow back at year end AND you’ll get the cap bump starting next year right ahead of the Canadian TV deal coming up for renewal.
Move the Coyotes to Houston or KC before the start of next year and the league will be rolling in dough.
I’m quite interested in how the bidding for Canadian rights will go. Can’t see the NHL backing a single bid again, so you’ll have to divvy it up between Rogers and Bell but there needs to be a 3rd in there.
Wont be Quebecor.
Amazon, Apple and whoever else come on up and shakeup our staid and lame broadcasting landscape.
Another total guess at team building (this one more open ended).
Say the cap stays at $83.5M. Re-sign Bouchard ($4.0M), McLeod ($1.5M), Kostin ($1.2M), Janmark or similar ($1.15M), Ryan ($1.0M).
Even with Holloway, Broberg, Desharnais, Lavoie, Philp (all $925k or less) on the roster you pretty much have to move 2 of Yamamoto, Foegele, Kulak and Ceci to get cap compliant. If you move 3 of them you can consider an upgrade up front or on D.
So with Yamamoto, Fogegele and Kulak out there would be just shy of $5M for a top 6 forward and a 6/7D (assuming a more veteran addition to keep Niemalainen as 8/9D).
Nick Holden could be a nice add on the back end. Guessing he might be interested as a local boy, and $1.1M might get it done (his expiring deal was only for $1.3M).
That would look like this, with ~$3.5M ($3.78M to be precise) for the Yamamoto upgrade:
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-$3.5M
Holloway-McLeod-Kostin
Janmark-Ryan-Lavoie (or opposite wings)
Philp
/
Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Broberg-Desharnais
Holden
/
Skinner
Campbell
$3.5-$3.7M isn’t much, but maybe there’s a quality veteran who wants to join for a little discount. Or Holland gives a bit too much term to an older player to keep the AAV down (again).
Possibles:
P. Kane – unlikely on AAV and team
Killorn – unlikely, but maybe if he gets a bit of term? (turning 34 in Sept)
Domi – not a RW, but plausible
Barbashev – not a RW, but possible
Haula – not a RW, but possible
Zucker – probably not but you never know
Rodrigues – definitely possibility. upgrade?
Nyquist- definitely possible. upgrade?
C. Brown – for sure
Fast – definitely possible
Dadanov – maybe
Paccioretti – probably not, but…
Sheary – maybe
Anyway, mostly just throwing some plausible names out there (YMMV) and looking again at what the numbers might look like.
I think most people have concluded it’ll be the usual suspects, minus a few faces, plus one possible upgrade or addition. I like some of those names you’ve listed.
The Oilers are out of LTIR. Wait till the trade deadline for the top 6 winger and the D upgrade if needed.
Just consider the impact potential of the forwards that were available at the trade deadline last season. Why would one blow their wad on the sorry collection of UFA’s out there now, when impact type forwards can be acquired at the trade deadline.
Live with the current seven D, dump Yamamoto and Foegele, and penny pinch till the trade deadline.
Impact forwards at the deadline cost 1st round picks.
The ‘sorry collection’ UFAs here (Kane, Killorn, Pacioretti etc.) only cost money, and many of them will be value deals at $3.5M or less.
Signing one of these guys (if they’re willing) also doesn’t preclude a significant deadline addition.
Im game to add anybody on a value-contract. If that means Connor Brown signed with performance bonuses, then giddyup.
But otherwise the roster is strong enough to make the playoffs, even deleting Foegele and Yamamoto.
I’d prefer they dump those two, and accumulate as much cap space as possible to deploy at the deadline.
How do you know the lineup is strong enough to make the playoffs without also knowing what other teams in the WC will do in the offseason?
For example, I’ve heard some chatter that Hellebuyck will be on the block and the LAK are a likely destination. That would be an absolute game changer.
We also have no idea what the Flames will look like since Conroy has been adamant that any of their numerous UFAs will be moved if they’re not interested in hanging around long term.
That and a new coach could change the equation considerably.
Vancouver also remains a complete wildcard.
They were very good after Tocchet arrived and Demko returned to Bubble Demko form after returning from injury,
The Canucks have been adding NCAA, European and CHL free agents like a mad hatter in the offseason.
If they can clear some cap space (far from a given) and solve their winger glut to further address their D after acquiring Hronek, they may be a very good team.
No reason to believe Vegas or Dallas will falter so any team that is essentially standing still may find itself in hot water.
Yeah for sure, and some cap available at the deadline would be really nice.
MOAR accrued cap space only has so much value though, since you need to spend major futures to use that cap space after the deadline.
I would definitely be more on the ‘anybody on a value-contract… giddyup’ side than the ‘accrue cap space at all costs than spend to add at the deadline’ side.
I liked Rodrigues when I first saw him playing for the Pens.
He’s one of those players you notice instantly when he has the puck on his stick.
He strikes me as maybe a bit of an unlucky player when you look at his contract history against how he plays hockey. A bit more luck and timing and he could have made a lot more money.
I think many hoped we could have gotten him last season as well.
Yeah he was definitely a popular speculated add last summer. And most I think were surprised how little he signed for in the end.
He does seem to be one of those guys whose production doesn’t seem to match his compensation though.
Maybe it’s luck. I tend to assume that the player (when they jump around teams and never seem to get paid what they should like Rodrigue) is likely a bit of a dink, or otherwise an odd duck who isn’t that well liked by his teammates.
That might be totally unfair though.
(and to be clear, I know nothing at all about Rodrigue specifically in that area).
I am hoping for Engvall at $3,000,000 x 5.
It’s gotta be a former Leaf, isn’t that the patented Holland UFA Roster Reinforcement Method?
Is Engvall any better than the $3M Oiler that he’d be replacing? The Leafs sent him out to make room for their deadline additions, and he was only making $$2.25M.
Canada defeats Germany 5-2.
Milan Lucic is a World Championship gold medal winner.
I honestly don’t have any ill feelings towards Lucic (except when he’s wearing a Flames jersey). He was the prototype power forward of an era now passed. The game changed and he became an overpaid remnant of that era … that Chiarelli spent cap space and assets to add Lucic and Reinhart was always the problem … the failure of those transactions are on management of the time, who failed to identify that the game was shifting away from clutch and grab tactics that made players of that ilk effective, to one involving speed and skill that made them ill-suited to success in the current NHL.
So looking at the 2RW spot, with Winnipeg maybe retooling what’s the likely cost of replacing Yams with Niederreiter? They grabbed him for a 2nd so what’s the odds of a yam plus a 3rd for Niederreiter with a million retained? Size, defense and historically very good at 5v5.
For the attributes I think are important are speed and good shooting. Always good backtracking and not missing many assignments defensively
Forechecking is king but you have to be able to get where you need to be to the point that it causes the D system problems. Also to improve the attack – a player that can move to middle ice in the O zone to potentially get a shot (being on the weak side, especially when the D overloads the strong side) and still get over to the weak side boards boards when it comes around again
I saw too often wingers not doing that and staying too near the boards, to be a threat or even to have a good scoring chance. In playoffs we get killed by that and can do it consistently
It took many years for some to come to grips with Tyler Benson’s fate…..
Re: Broberg
I don’t see any signs any elite skills in Brogerg’s game.
Even his skating, Bro seemingly needs a long runway to get up to his top speed. In the tight confines of the NHL ( it’s a stop and start league)
that is tough.
Never seen a rookie take so many hellacious hits going back to get pucks. Very odd for someone whose calling card is supposed to be skating. The vaunted Milan Lucic has crushed Broberg a few times…..
Inexperience? Maybe
His skating reminds me of Magnus Pajaarvi….fast in Europe, not so much in North America.
There is a difference between speed and agility.
This was Holland’s Golden Goose pick Yzerman took Seider who’s going to be a Stud for a decade plus. That left the reach of Broberg who was as raw as it gets. Holland passes on Zegras, Caulfield,Boldy. Broberg looks very quiet in his demeanour, his style of play, even when he gets crumbled into the boards he does it quietly. Broberg Holloway Bourgault 2 of these 3 need to hit are else Nurse and Ekholm are playing 30 minute nights and Leon and Connor are playing 25 minutes a game.
I don’t agree on any of that, save for Broberg has to be top-four defense over the next 12 months.
Holloway and Bourgault are not foundation pieces and were not drafted in a spot where one would expect a foundation piece.
Broberg is the key, and his numbers suggest he is what they thought he would be.
https://theathletic.com/4508526/2023/05/12/oilers-philip-broberg-vegas-lineup/
https://theathletic.com/4227784/2023/02/20/oilers-philip-broberg-draft/
You need cheap labour to hit on the ELC or shortly after. You can’t be paying 3.1 million too the Yamamoto’s of the league. Holland knows this and he’ll be bought out unless Holland takes back a problem child and contract off another team. My prediction Yamamoto will be bought out in the first 5 minutes of the window then he’ll sign out East for under a Million.
Suspect that’s the play, don’t know if he’d sign out east or in the west but someone will grab him. The trick is to use that money wisely.
I still think one of the US teams with low caps and a bare roster will make a trade for Yamo for a low value reclamation project prospect at the very least and give him a try. Like Chicago or Anaheim. They will likely be able to sign him and to a much lower contract the next year as well if he works out. There is a chance he succeeds and that’s not so bad ..Those teams just want to play their 82 games and give the fans some enjoyment and won’t care how Yamo plays in the playoffs because they aren’t making the playoffs.. an undersized energetic player from the US with a big motor will give them another angle to cheer about and helped the team reach the cap floor without giving anything of value up .. Yamo is the kind of little guy that will really want to prove the oilers wrong and so it’s not a stretch to say that Yamo could have a decent year next year if healthy. I expect he has a good offseason to get his strength up, gets some man strength which should start to come now, he has lots of experience already .. I would bet he’s traded and even though the buyout isn’t expensive , I would bet 50 dollars cold hard cash on it. Maybe even 60.
Broberg is young and he will adapt to the ice size. By the stats It kinda looks like Broberg is trending to be a better skating, better shooting and passing version of Oscar Kelfbolm.
Benson was a second rounder, Broberg is a top-10 pick. Miles of difference between Benson failing and Broberg failing.
I’ve seen all the weak plays you describe but I’ve also seen Bro use his skating to suddenly occupy the puck carrier’s space, just shunt him aside, and bam that drive is over.
I remain optimistic. Just the play the lad so we can know and he can grow.
I think he’s had a lot of disruption from missing time and isn’t settled. His skating is far above average for a D IMO. When he gets his reps he’s better than Ceci soon. Igor he can stay in the lineup
Another thing is like Kane he had a huge laceration and it takes time to heal and get puck feel back
Igor, or if
If skill is increased I’m not so worried about young players if they are ready for to go and have shown that they will play the defensive side of the game
That is because the vets are constantly making poor reads, so if the young guy makes some errors but is more skilled what’s the drop in team play?
I really think they need a better system because of how much weaker their team play is compared to other top teams, and should look at Vegas and Florida for ideas. At some point if it’s year in and out it’s not just the players, the roster gets better and the same things happen, egregious breakdowns
Florida squeaked in this year but have been strong for a while. Vegas succeeds Year in and out with changes and injuries galore, they are doing something right beyond cap circumvention
Might I remind you last year without the cap circumvention Vegas missed the playoffs.
Vegas did not circumvent the cap.
Stone had back surgery twice.
Its much more likely the Oilers circumvented the cap with the Smith “retirement” although both were approved by the league.
L.O.L.
That’s the injury part
Smith didn’t retire … by all reports his body was too broken down after last year’s playoffs to continue his career. Him being on LTIR was perfectly valid and didn’t circumvent anything.
Stone waited until game 1 of the playoffs to re-enter the Knight’s lineup … just like Kucherov did a few years ago. Both conceivably could’ve been ready to go prior to the start of the regular season but were held out of their team’s lineups to avoid going over the cap.
That’s called circumvention HH.
What exactly is the plan for Holloway, Bourgault and Lavoie this coming training camp and beyond???
Holloway has a clear shot at the NHL roster. I think it would be an upset if he’s sent out. Bourgault should spend a year in the AHL, he’s not at all the player I thought he would be. That’s not a bad thing per se, but you want him to dominate and he was only very good in a few brief spurts. As a fan of two-way types, I’m thrilled he has such range, but I don’t believe he’ll be a big scorer in the NHL.
This is Lavoie’s time. He was a known boom or bust when drafted, and last year before Christmas he was drowning in mediocrity. Credit to him and the coaching staff, he was a different player (and for an extended time) later on.
“No one can, because the ‘gifted hockey prospect whose father is French’ rule has been abolished.” Any rules giving the Canadiens unique preference over Quebec players existed for only 2 – 7 year periods, and the Canadiens only ever got 2 NHL players from that. The Canadiens’ primary advantage on Quebec prospects was gained through astute management by Selke exploiting the same rules and options available to all NHL teams equally.
https://thehockeywriters.com/habs-french-canadian-rule/
https://www.nhltraderumors.me/2019/09/the-truth-behind-canadiens-first-choice.html
From 1936 to 1943, the Canadiens had preferential rights to sign 2 Quebecers not already committed to other NHL teams. None of the players they ever signed under this rule ever made it in the NHL.
Starting after WWII, Montreal’s better access to more Quebec born players was based on the Junior Team sponsorship program implemented in the late 1940s. Frank Selke, the Canadiens GM (an Ontario boy effectively forced out of the Leafs org by Conn Smyth in 1946) was a proponent of this system. Generally, the playing rights of the top 18 juniors signed by each of these sponsored teams were held by the NHL team till after they turned 21 (perhaps more complicated than this, but this was the gist of it).
All GM’s for all 6 teams had the same rights to sponsor teams, but Selke, understanding the potential of this system, sponsored way more teams than the others including many in Quebec. Montreal sponsored teams all across North America, while several other NHL teams sponsored some teams in Quebec. The rules were the same for all 6 teams, but the Montreal GM took by far the most advantage of them. Once the advantage was gained, it was hard to break it, but it wasn’t gained using any special rules unique to Montreal or for Quebec born players. It was just Selke being smarter than the other GM’s (9 cup wins as a GM reinforces that claim).
The sponsorship system started to change in 1963 with the introduction of the draft and was phased out over the next 7 seasons and gone after 68/69. During the phase out, due to the Canadiens having developed a much more substantial farm system (they sponsored more teams), they were given the option to select 2 Quebec players before the draft occurred each year. They didn’t use this option from 1963 to 1967. In 1968 & 69 they used it both seasons (4 times) and only 2 ended being genuine NHL caliber players (Houle and Tardiff – both left for the WHL in 1973 and only Houle came back).
So from 1936 to 1970, any rules giving Montreal special access to Quebec players (maximum 2 per season in the 2 – 7 year spans) netted Montreal a grand total of 2 quality players. The sponsorship system that netted the Canadiens the vast majority of their Quebec born players was not a special rule unique to the Canadiens that had anything to do with the players being French or Quebecois. If Toronto had been smart enough to sponsor the Quebec Citadelles and/or Quebec Aces before Selke did, Beliveau could have been a Leaf.
Getting Marc Tardif and Rejean Houle was a helluva advantage and wildly unfair. I’ll give absolute credit for buying the Quebec Aces, that was brilliant.
Tardiff and Houle were an advantage for sure, but the rules at the time were a concession granted to the Canadiens to dismantle the feeder system that only they had the foresight to create with their own investment. The 5 other teams were compensating the Canadiens for giving up an advantage that they had earned between 1946 and 1963, not one that was given to them.
Montreal would have still one 6 cups in the 70’s without them. Neither had an impact on the 1971 cup, they were border line 2nd line players in 1973, both were gone when the team won in 1976, then Houle came back and was a 2nd/3rd line player for the last 3 cups.
But the main point is it is just not true that special draft or signing right rules for Quebecers enabled the Habs to stockpile talent.
We disagree. Tardif and Houle were absolutely gifts, and the fact the league had to make a concession to a single member team in order to establish a level playing field gives everyone an idea about how fucked up this league is.
Just like all the other bitter Bruins fans. Holding a grudge for 54 years against people mostly long since dead as if it has anything to do with how the league is run today.
Oh man, guilty as charged. I’ve never ever denied my absolute disdain for the trickery of Sam Pollock, it’s been a theme forever. I’m genuinely surprised you didn’t know it.
Kinda like the bait and switch NEP deal didn’t destroy hardworking folks life’s.
Flummoxed by the lack of patience for Broberg, who just completed his age 21 season.
Bouchard had his break out season last year at age 22. Yes he probably could have played more the prior year at age 21, but he didn’t.
Broberg has kicked the jams out of the AHL — more so than Bouchard, at least by counting numbers — has elite skating ability, and was very effective prior to Ekholm’s arrival, granted in a sheltered role.
I think this guy is going to be awesome this coming year. Very bullish on him.
As do I. Broberg would not be on my trade list.
You know what I noticed in the back half of the regular season and into the playoffs? Broberg is much more skilled and deceptive on his puck retrievals. We used to worry because he’d get drilled *so* frequently.
That’s completely gone from his game.
He is learning. He is getting better.
Puzzled why no mention of Woody
Flummoxed by people who watched Broberg, seemingly, unable to supplant anyone on the 3rd pairing.
Yet, Uber confident in Broberg ( and Manson) simply taking up the 2nd pair role.
Its like the Tyler Benson thing all over again
I agree 100%.
Reading/hearing alot about needing to cut bait, how he HAS to be traded for immediate help, etc.
It was known on draft day that this player was going to take a bit of time and he was 100% right on track development wise a year ago.
I would say that he’s fallen a bit behind my expected/hoped development path given due to this past season but, really, it was somewhat due to coaching deployment than anything else.
He started the season a bit behind due to that weird hand cut injury but, when he returned and started playing he started to gain some traction and was starting to excite fans. His ice time got up, namely because of the PK and the “need” to insert Vinny in – if I remember correctly.
I have full confidence he can handle legit 3rd pairing minutes nightly – right now, today.
As far as “immediate help” – I think a $925K d-man with great skating, solid defence (zone entries, rush D) and real upside is “immediate help”.
I actually think he could play with Ekholm as 2RD, at least spotted up there.
I agree he’s earned an opportunity to make this club, in particular presuming Bjugstad prices himself out of the organization.
Philp is a very responsible 2-way right shot center – he is always on the right side of the puck. He also has good size and skill and a very sneaky good shot. I really do think he has a chance to play.
Would be better to see Philp kick the jams out of the AHL for a stretch this season first, no?
Maybe but he’s not a kid. The Cap says hello again to Holland. Is there a better player below 1M available? That’s played against men for years and is a two way, big, fast enough, tough, RS C good at faceoffs? Maybe there is but the Oilers don’t seem to find those fellas often enough. Is suppose it depends on his camp
If he has a good camp and get the opportunity for regular season games in October and shows he is ready and can contribute and even make an impact, I would think that’s “better”.
I would suggest he did kick the jams out of the AHL during the second half of last season.
Truth be told, “less expensive” is of prime importance right now.
Unless the Oilers can indeed get a Connor Brown on a very cheap base (perhaps with performance bonuses) show me deal, its tough to see a legit established top 6 forward coming in externally.
I agree, there is no certainty that any of those players can perform better than Yamamoto at 6F although I do think there is a very reasonable chance that Holloway could at least match what Yamo did last year production wise.
Yamo has the clear ability to produce better in that spot, he’s done it in the past and, if he can retain 100% health to start the season, and maintain that somewhat, he is highly likely to be more productive next season, in a contract year.
At the same time, if we look at what the Oilers got out of 6F last season, I don’t think its unreasonable to think that a Holloway could potentially fill the production gap, for $2.1MM cheaper. Can he fill the overall play gap which includes the loss of a PK guy, generally outscoring help (not really last season though, his 2-way play suffered as the season went on, etc.)? Well, maybe, that motor on Holloway is real and substantial and he can forecheck and hound pucks, etc., etc. He very well could be ready to do that at the next level.
I think that 6F spot is likely “filled” internally.
I think we have to be careful in being fixated on the EV/60 number.
13 points / 500 EV minutes works out to 1.56 EVP / 60 (Yamo’s ballpark).
16 points / 500 EV minutes works out to 1.91 EVP / 60.
George talked about this, that EVP can swing from season to season. When I was looking at trends in EV scoring when trying to decide if the Oilers should extend Nuge after a poor year of EV production, I found that even very, very good players can have low swings in their EV production (famous example is Crosby).
My point here is that this should be more of a scouting decision. What does the org see as Yamo’s baseline production and ceiling? And, how do you balance that with the cap savings and how can it be utilized elsewhere?
Yamo does contribute — as Jesse did — in digging pucks. He is not a perfect player, but no one in that “range” of player is — they will all have warts.
Personally, I think Holloway could be a much better transporter of the puck on zone entries, and that could help diversify Drai’s line. Lavoie, in theory, could spread the ice a bit with that wicked shot.
But — do you need to gift either player a top six role to see any of that? IMO no. So there is some space here to retain Yamo, see what he has, and have Lavoie and Holloway waiting in the wings.
Context is important. I spent years telling people Shawn Horcoff had ridiculous defensive zone start totals and played the toughest competition while also playing late and having EN goals count against him, and all I got was people raining down blows on me.
There is no perfect number, but five-on-five is a level playing field. SO, in the example of RNH, I can say:
1. As a percentage of individual minutes, Nuge’s 32.3 pct versus elites led all Oilers forwards this season.
2. His 49.8 DFF Pct versus elites, added to his 2.6 pct DFF Corsi Rel and 15-13 goal total, was outstanding.
3. Nuge’s 2.14 pts-60 was the second highest of his career, and his 55.75 on-ice goal share was also impressive.
The trick to understanding individual players isn’t to say “well check his points-per-game” because that brings PP points into it. The trick is to acknowledge that no one hockey stat is going to deliver all of the vital information.
Comrade was the other key to the 06 with Pronger
Its been so long since the Oilers had a C like that people forget what it’s like, a guy shutting down and outscoring top opponents
You’ll not like this but it’s why I wanted Danault instead of Nuge with the cap hit
I understand that thought process. Danault is a very good player in a specific area. High value.
GeorgeXS’ analysis is interesting.
On the one hand, it makes sense that points/game is a better predictor of future points/60 than points per 60 because it’s using a larger sample of data.
It also makes sense because it incorporates TOI data.
There’s going to be a lot of Kostin’s that have great points/60 one year, playing 10 minutes per game, that might not the next season.
The problem with GeorgeXS’ analysis is that it completely ignores an important phenomenon, player aging.
Players can remain effective on the powerplay until the end of time (Neal, Chiasson), but 5v5 offense is subject to decline with age, more rapid for non-elite players.
Basically, if you only look at points/game when looking at a given player who gets significant PP minutes, you won’t spot their decline.
Here are some curves for this.
Ugh, Kesselring, I stated that I didn’t like his inclusion in the Bjugstad trade at the time.
Don’t get me wrong, I “get it” – it was a prospect that wasn’t going to play for the Oilers that season, maybe not even the next season or ever – and the team was in win now.
At the same time, I was higher on Kesslering’s potential than most and have stated for a few years now that, although he was far from a sure bet to ever make it as an every day NHL player, I think he had legit top 4, potentially top pairing, upside if he did – a really nice range of skills to go with his length, etc.
A very solid NHL debut for the Yotes after the trade and I think he’ll be an every day NHL d-man this season – on merit.
As I think about it more, Holland is going to trade Kulak and Yamamoto this summer.
Kulak is not going to move above the 3LHD during his contract term and Broberg has arrived and can play all those minutes.
Yamamoto has lots of cool attributes but he is a fringe top 6 RW with lots of at bats to confirm this point. The Oilers need to replace the forecheck that Yamamoto brought, but an upgrade on value is possible here.
I think that is a well founded thought process. The only hesitation I have in endorsing it comes from Broberg’s playing time. At no point in this past season did I feel the club was contemplating the idea of giving Kulak (or other) a few games off so Broberg could take the helm.
If that had been the case, say if Kris Russell was in the Kulak role, then I would agree. Seems to me the organization is willing to run Broberg as a utility man for a season.
We’ll see. It’s a good thought for sure.
The only thing that can skewer the Oilers season is an injury to a defenseman. Kulak is good enough to provide cover for that. Yamamoto and Foegele are far more likely to go than Kulak.
Holloway is a direct replacement for Foegele. Kostin, Lavoie, Bougault, and cheap stop gap UFA’s are replacements for Yamamoto till the deadline.
Keep the seven D. Play Kulak. Run Broberg with Nurse. Reevaluate at the deadline.
Yamo out is pretty much a no-brainer – we know he’s very well liked but, then again, so was Tyson Barrie. We know he can be much better than he was last season (and likely would/will be with better health and in a contract year) but cap out has to come from somewhere.
Sure, a Barbashev or another more established 6F would be great but Yamo’s cap (plus more out) is needed just to bring back the RFAs (Bouch, McLeod, Kostin) and I’m not positive there is cap to replace externally.
I think Holloway could get a first real look at 6F – he should be able to bring that forecheck along with more speed, size and jam. I would like to think he can match Yamo’s production from last season (not certainty) with the possibility of an actual pop.
Right wing is an issue though with all top 4 wingers being better on the left (Nuge, Hyman, Kane, Holloway) – Hyman would move over, of course but who else – neither Nuge nor Kane have played material right wing as an Oiler.
————-
SC Champion teams have good 3rd pairings – Kulak helps give us that at this point. At the same time, Yamo out is not enough for cap so Kulak may need to be moved. I think they’ll find another way. Broberg should have been playing nightly last season and needs to be this season. I’ve proposed him with Ekholm (and Bouch with Nurse) but, realistically, he doesn’t get that bump and I’d be fine with him at 3RD with Kulak.
Deharnais is 7D – Broberg plays every night.
Of course, recent evidence is the coaching staff does not agree with me. They likely know more about NHL player deployment than me…..
Oh man, what a special moment for Latvia today. Great reminder of why we love this game when it’s so easy to get caught up in the negatives of the NHL product.
“It’s hard to not get romantic about
baseballhockey” -Billy BeaneIt was also a thoroughly enjoyable game. If the USA ever learns to play as a team, they’ll win Gold many times.
Absolutely. Also hard not to imagine that Kristians Pelss should have been a part of that special moment.
That is awesome for Latvia. I have a soft spot for those Baltic countries.
Latvia* for seemingly having everyone’s names (first and last) end with “s”.
Lithuania for its confounding yet beautiful language, and for having a holiday called Book Smugglers Day.
Estonia for being like Finland’s little brother, and for unwittingly providing my handle.
*I actually got to meet some women from there when we first hosted the World Women’s Curling Championship, as there was a team from Latvia. They didn’t know much English, so a local woman who was originally from Latvia was hired to translate. They were outgoing enough–more so than the Russians, but not nearly as much as the Danes, Swedes and Norwegians. But I digress.
Tarkus – I was actually doing some research on Estonia last night. Very interesting country. Very technologically advanced.