Matvey Petrov is the feature player among new pro arrivals this fall. For the Oilers, who drafted 14 forwards in the 17 picks that came after Philip Broberg, the rookie season in the AHL hasn’t translated as expected for several highly-touted forwards. Petrov is the latest, and possibly the last chance Texaco for the Oilers to draft a scoring winger for Connor McDavid.
DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
MATVEY PETROV
Where do you expect him to play? It’s a tough call. I would put him on left wing, second line, with Brad Malone or James Hamblin. Someone who can post offense at this level and can also check well.
How much will he score in the AHL? Using the old timey NHLE for junior-to-AHL, we could expect .64 pts-game in the AHL for Petrov. That would be 46 points in 72 games, a full schedule.
How accurate is the OHL-to-AHL translation? Kailer Yamamoto’s final junior season suggested he would score .69 pts-game in Bakersfield, and he scored .67 pts-game in the AHL.
Does it always work that way? No. Xavier Bourgault was expected to score in the range of .72 pts-game in the AHL but delivered .55 pts-game. It doesn’t always translate perfectly. Still, I think it has value.
What about Jesse Puljujarvi? He would have been at .51 pts-game projected by NHLE and he delivered .72 pts-game.
And Dylan Holloway? He would have been expected to score 1.04 pts-game and was .67 pts-game. Injuries impacted his development short term and possibly long term. We’re still waiting for an offensive spike.
How long did it take the Condors coaching staff to figure out the rookies a year ago? In fairness to coach Chaulk and his men, the club iced a bunch of rookies last year. Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie and Noah Philp all played a lot and they weren’t the only rookies the organization deployed at center and on the wings.
How did the season open? Philp and Bourgault were on the No. 2 line with Greg McKegg at center. Tullio was on the fourth line with Filip Engaras and Samuel Dove-McFalls.
Seriously? Yeah, I went back and watched the first game of the year just to be sure my memory matched the events.
They buried Tullio! He announced his presence and they listened. Hey the AHL coach gets about 10 minutes before the opening faceoff to suss this stuff out and Chaulk had miles of injuries. I’m not sure why Tullio started with the players he did, though. That’s some distance from what he was that day and is now. I think it does suggest we shouldn’t be surprised if Petrov is a healthy scratch opening night. He doesn’t have draft pedigree, as was the case with Tullio.
He filled the net in Ontario! I know, but Tullio was a strong OHL player, too. Just be prepard for it. Sometimes coaches do strange things, they just do.
What were the lines opening night 2022-23? The top line was Kostin-Hamblin-Griffith; Philp-McKegg-Bourgault; McPhee-Esposito-Kambeitz; Dove McFalls-Engaras-Tullio.
Who are the centers this time? Depending on who makes the big team, Chaulk may have Lane Pederson, Brad Malone, James Hamblin, Jayden Grubbe and Greg McKegg down the middle.
How would you run the lines? I’d run pairs. The Oilers have five feature prospects: Bourgault, Savoie, Grubbe and Petrov, Tullio. Ideally they all land on the top three lines but that is going to be a difficult chore.
Who is the odd man out? The checking line might see Grubbe and Tullio with McKegg. Something like that.
Why? It makes the pairing easy. Top line could be Savoie paired with Hamblin; second line Pederson with Bourgault; third line Petrov and Malone. We’ll see. Long way to go.
So, Savoie gets the push? Yes, to start. If Petrov pushes his way to the top line (I have him with a good AHL center), then so be it. In truth, Malone could be the top line, he plays a helluva lot. I think Hamblin is more dynamic offensively. Pederson might fit better with Savoie, the old lefty-righty thing.
Anything unusual in that opening game a year ago? Dino Kambeitz scored on the power play, had an assist, too. It was a fun first game of the year. Philip Broberg was going to join the team in Ontario the following night, Mattias Janmark was getting his Visa straightened out, Carter Savoie and Raphael Lavoie were hurt, so there were several “fringe” types playing prominent roles.
Do you like Petrov as a more impactful offensive player than Bourgault as an AHL rookie? About the same. It’s easy to discount Bourgault’s offense but he was an impact player in the QMJHL. He also saw just one more year of junior after his draft and that too could impact.
Who is the best offensive winger who played more than 50 AHL games since 2010? As a rookie, the ranking goes Cooper Marody (1.1), Tyler Benson (.97), Jesse Puljujarvi (.72), Kailer Yamamoto (.67), Dylan Holloway (.67), Andrew Miller (.65), Teemu Hartikainen (.64), Xavier Bourgault (.55) Raphael Lavoie (.53) and Noah Philp (.53).
Why are Marody and Benson the most impressive and never made it? The most impressive names are Jesse Puljujarvi (he was 18) and Kailer Yamamoto. I don’t have an answer for you about Marody, he was the straw that stirred the drink on that line during their rookie season together. He did get injured versus the Colorado Eagles and injuries do impact careers.
Does Woodcroft do well with minor-league recalls he didn’t coach in Bakersfield? That’s such a good question. I don’t have a good answer. For me, Dylan Holloway did not push for more NHL time, so I can’t say Woodcroft faded him unfairly. Holloway is the first recall Woodcroft wouldn’t know well (just seven games together with the Condors). Broberg played 27 games for Woodcroft and was elevated when the coach flew to Edmonton.
Why so low? Last season, the Condors coaching staff had a bunch of rookies and took some time to figure it out. This fall, the new arrivals will be Petrov, Grubbe, Jake Chiasson and Carl Berglund. I think we’ll see some HS for Petrov and some fourth-line deployment.
How can Ken Holland do a work around on that? He could trade a prospect forward for a prospect defenseman, kind of the opposite Samorukov-for-Kostin deal from last October.
What would you do? What I suggested above, putting Grubbe with Tullio and a mature two-way forward and then pairing up the skill wingers with veteran centers.
There’s a TV show I accidentally watched where people from 4 different generations compete to answer questions but everyone is so JACKED to BE ON TV its essentially 22 minutes of straight woo-ing and hollering and high fives and I have a headache just thinking about it I guess HNIC will move in that direction.
OriginalPouzar
July 10, 2023 3:52 pm
Tyler Benson signs an AHL deal with Henderson.
I courioused a few days back about where he’d end up and figured an AHL deal, as opposed to a 2-way NHL deal was more likely.
I really don’t get Canadian hockey players. Why would you sign an AHL deal when you could play in Italy or Switzerland and have a great experience and quality of life. Missed opportunity.
The problem with Canadians going overseas is that you aren’t near your family, you don’t know anyone, you don’t speak the local language and you essentially give up on being an NHL player.
Pretty damning that this is one of the last shots at an internal candidate for 97’s wing. Not that I disagreed with (most) of the picks at the time but you think since 2015…
2016: Pulju over Tkachuk/Keller, Benson over Debrincat
2017: Yamo over Robertson
2019: Broberg over Zegras/Boldy/Caufield
2020: Holloway over Mercer
2021: Bourgault over Johnston
Each, outside of Broberg, was defensible at the time but man – missing that many times is a tough indictment of the amateur scouting.
The only ones I really think were big were Debrincat and Zegras. The rest I don’t believe were championed too much in Oilerland. I don’t think it’s any tougher of an indictment when for example Robertson was taken 17 picks later. At least 30-35 team picks missed on him. Yams statistically is scoring higher than his draft spot in points and games played. Same with Johnston, at first redraft he should be top 5. That’s not letting Wright off the hook just pointing out its an inexact science even with the best of drafting teams.
I guess that’s why they’re all called prospects. Shout out to Dallas’ scouting department though. And im sure Wallstedt will cause much wailing in the coming years.
I liked Nail I really thought him and Mcdavid had started developing chemistry. Remember when Wideman hurt the Linesman well it doesn’t even come close to the brutal injury Nail recieved from another Linesman. Watching the Ref pull down Nail was like seeing a drowning person pulling down the person who’s trying to save them.
When the draft has a weaker cohort sometimes drafting high actually limits options. Yak was consensus #1. I didn’t think it would work for him in Edmonton. We had a terrible track record with ‘Russians’ and he isn’t even, a step even further removed and different. Being in NA worked in junior where he was a superstar. Not so much when he didn’t have NHL stuff and was asked to play NHL hockey
Nobody would have taken Tkachuk over JP because Matt looked like he might be shy with O for the NHL. He is a big jerk though so Flames all in. Nor taken Robertson where Yama was picked
Bro and Holloway certainly debatable, but to me outside of the top 5 or 10 sometimes it’s pretty hard to tell who’s better or will be better. There may be a math push as LT says, but they are lower because there is something not quite there. So they choose what they like for traits in players
Instead of going with Debrincat who was McDavid teammate they chose Benson. The following year they weren’t going to pass on the little guy Yamamoto after seeing Debrincat pop 28 in his rookie season.
It’s interesting, but I wonder if the scouting was actually substantially downgraded when we switched from Geen/ Gretzky to Tyler Wright.
The Red Wings had an awful run in the 1st round. Zadina and Svechnikov were both placed on waivers. Cholowski was exposed to Seattle. That’s 3/4 first round picks in a row.
The vaunted 2015 draft left the Wings with nothing to show from it. They were only missing a second rounder.
The Broberg and Holloway picks went walkabout on Mckenzie’s list. Bourgeault was a result of that trade down on the Wallstedt.
Going with Mckenzie’s list and we would have done a lot better in hindsight than Broberg, Holloway, and Bourgeault.
2017 was a draft of a lifetime for Dallas for sure.
In terms of Wright, he was scouting direct for Detroit for the 2014 through 2019 drafts. I’m curious what those drafts look like for Detroit vs. Dallas.
2014
Detroit
15th – Larkin 584GP – 5th in points from 2014
106th – Ehn 114GP
Dallas
14th – Honka 87GP (that’s it)
2015
Detroit
19th – Svechnikov 172GP
Dallas
12th – Gurianov 280GP
49th – Hintz 312GP – Home run, 11th in scoring from 2015
2016
Detroit
26th – Cholowski 117GP
46th – Smith 119GP
53rd – Hronek 309GP – 15th in points, 6th among D
Dallas
no one topped 40GP
You’re not accounting for how many picks Dallas had in those drafts.
For example in 2019, the Stars made only 4 picks…none in the second or third rounds.
And GP is also deceptive in that it does not account for the different difficulty in any given player making the roster which is far harder to do in Dallas than it is on a bottom feeding team in Detroit.
Players like, Dellandrea and Harley would very likely have significantly higher totals if drafted by Detroit.
We’ve learned from watching the Oilers that drafting a Teddy Peckman, having him patrol the bottom pairing on a non-contending team for 160 games, then end up in the ECHL doesn’t move the needle.
The trick with drafting is to find a large enough cluster of talent in a short time frame to build a contender. Or the players have to be moved in trade for key assets to do same.
We’re talking top six forwards, 3c, and top pairing d and goalie. Elite players are what matter the most.
Instead of games played, why don’t we look at roster stops filled? This shows the discrepancy.
Dallas Stars
Dallas has #1c Hintz and 1LW Robertson.
Wyatt Johnson 2c though he was 2020.
Dellandrea is a 3RW
Heiskanen is 1RD.
Oettinger is G.
Oettinger, Robertson, Hintz, and Heiskanen are elite
Red Wings
Larkin is 1c.
Hronek was traded to Vancouver. 2nd pair RD? Cholowski was claimed in expansion draft then a waiver claim
Rasmussen is a 4c Svechnikov and Zadina waiver fodder
Seider is a very talent defenseman, plays top pair RD.
Bergrenn is a 2 LW?
Veleno is a 4c/ tweener still?
The wings drafted a 1c in Larkin, then swung out on 4 1st round picks in a row. They managed to get Seider which was a great pick. So they found a 1c and 1RD. They traded Hronek and 4rth for a 1st and a second.
What they haven’t been able to do is fill out the rest of their roster with important draft picks.
If you look at the Yzerplan, he’s in trouble because he’s had to go out and sign or trade for all of the pieces.
The Oilers outdrafted the wings in 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018. The wings take 2016. 2015 is interesting, if discounting the obvious pick for McDavid, we had a better draft with all of our other picks outside of the top 100. 2014 is maybe not fair because we had Draisaitl. Still I’m not sure Wright is an upgrade, are you?
The trick with drafting is to find a large enough cluster of talent in a short time frame to build a contender.
It kind of is a trick though, it’s largely luck to hit on those clusters.
A team that picks Heiskanen-Oettinger-Robertson with consecutive picks in 2017 but drafts Ty Dellandrea as the only NHL regular from 2016+2018 drafts isn’t doing things reproducibly.
And I agree that Dallas fared better 2014-2019 based on that 2017 draft, I said that.
In terms of impact, there is a gap but it isn’t as big as you’re making it out to be.
If you want to include Johnson (2RW) from 2020 then I guess we should include Raymond (1LW) for Detroit as well?
Detroit drafted
Larkin 1C
Berggren 2LW
Rasmussen 3C (3C is actually totally unfair as he was top 6 in TOI, points, elite TOI)
Seider 1RD (not Heiskanen level obviously)
Hronek 1/2RD (played 1D minutes for 4 years, but probably 2RD on a good team)
Dallas came out ahead, as I said, but both teams drafted 5 legitimate players from the 6 drafts.
That pretty much is the ante for a two-year transition deal for a defenseman coming out of their entry level deal. 2/3rds the minimum for a competent veteran 3rd pairing D. The ante for a one-year is the QO. The 2nd year is buying the defenseman out of arbitration. It is sort of what Broberg’s one or two year transitions will look like if he does nothing special.
Remember, Bouchard is going to get somewhere between $3.5 and 4.0 per year on a two-year transition.
I read below that Bouchard is an elite 5×5 defenseman although a quick check of NHL stats actually show him 39th in the league despite playing on one of the highest scoring teams in the league.
While far from terrible, one should expect a top 10 pick to deliver commensurate results especially for an “offensive” defenseman.
York, while younger, strikes me as a similar type of player.
12th among d-men in 5 on 5 points in 2021/22 and 18th over the course of the last two seasons (even with 3 months of production struggles this sesaon).
Last season, more 5 on 5 points than the likes of Weegan, Hannafin, Theodore, Trouba, Slavin, Ekblad, Burns, Paraykho, Montour, Dahlin, Q. Hughes, Orlov, Carlson, Severson, etc.
Over the course of the two seasons (including that massive slump) more 5 on 5 points than the likes of Hamilton, Riley, Weegar, Severson, Hieskenan, McCavoy, Ghost, Hannifin, Trouba, Dobson etc., etc.
One starts at the beginning, not at the end. Remember, if it were me, Broberg would be playing with Nurse in the top four, but Woodcroft has put him on the milk run bus to the top 4.
Remember, Bouchard is an elite offensive d-man (both on the PP and at 5 on 5).
Mayan Oil
July 10, 2023 12:43 pm
Just thinking out loud… Hellebuyk and Demelo for Campbell and one of Ceci or Bouchard, draft picks going either way as sweeteners to balance it out? Does Edmonton say yes or no? Does Winnipeg say yes or no? Perhaps a conditional portion on resigning Hellebuyk? (I can NEVER remember bow to spell his name!)
They could of recieved a D-man prospect in a trade for Kostin since Holland burned through over a half-dozen prospects since appearing on the scene. Holland liked Zadina enough to pick him 6th so I do think him and his buddy Yzerman talked about Zadina more than this blog thinks.
If he scores 25 this year is he still considered a bum? No doubt Yzerman knows how to evaluate prospects but I think this whole scenario was done for a reason other than Hockey.
Most definitely maybe he’ll be on PP1 if he gets off to a hot start. The one thing I’ll give him credit for is at tipping pucks. If he ever scores the same amount as PTO Chaisson 22 in the future I’ll never bad mouth him again.
It depends what you need. If you need goals more than anything and have no hope of winning a Cup, offense only types help. Goals are fun for the fans, especially semi interested US fans. Remember the good old Oiler days of exciting losing hockey? For Zadina it seems two way play and offense is the challenge
For Yama, I think he’s gets so beat to crap that he only managed the one stretch of really solid play both ways. It’s not talent or heart, but those things aren’t all that’s needed
Winning the Stanley Cup is the hardest thing to do in all sports nevermind the quick turnaround to repeat. Players don’t have enough time to recover from injuries and hangovers. The Av’s are rested up and have a burr in their saddle.
His odds of becoming a feature forward in 23/24 are considerably higher in San Jose than they would be with a team like the Oilers. He needs playing time and opportunity to get his career back on track.
winchester
July 10, 2023 12:09 pm
I love that Petrov seems a little undercover and might just come out of nowhere as a drafted sniper the Oilers are waiting for.
I missed Bougault conversation. Let me add, he is not near the same player as Jessie with big swoops all over the ice. Similar with Holloway and Yamo forechecking and hunting pucks. I think you find Bougault on right wing, 10 feet from the boards. That is home and he’s predictable. You know who loves predictable? Connor. And Leon. Its how Maroon scored 27 goals. Bougault does not bring Maroon toolbox of course, but he did his job, played his wing, was right where he was supposed to be.
I don’t know if it will be enough but I think Bougaults passing game, and his 10 foot from the boards home base will make up for any lack of offense in AHL. Hope so.
I read an article yesterday about the concern in the long-standing NYT sports department and a recent letter that had been written to management at the NYT.
Well, it didn’t work – the NYT is disbanding their sports department and relying solely on The Athletic for sports content.
They will no doubt rebrand it to the NYT Sports Pages.
Lowetide, your intrepid New York Times reporter.
A long way from Maidstone, Saskatchewan.
dulock
July 10, 2023 10:34 am
If I was an NHL GM, I’d trade prospects either before their first year in the AHL or in year 2+. That adjustment is big and a big hit to their value as well.
Yeah, I always look back at players like Slava Trukno and wonder if we’d moved him what we could have gotten. His last year of junior was fire but he never scored in the AHL. When we traded for Pronger it was essentially straight across for Eric Brewer because Doug Lynch and Jeff Woywitka were considered top prospects about to pop but neither had a substantial career.
Agreed. What do you think we could have gotten for Skinner if we had traded him after his 2nd year in Bakersfield? If we had thrown Desharnais in to the mix who knows what they could have brought back. 🥸
Seriously, I think there is a reason why our host cites 5 years from the draft before pronouncing what kind of career a player will have. Sometimes you can tell early and sometimes its not clear. That is why the team employs professional scouts and sometimes they get it wrong but I don’t think there is a rule that guarantees success just by following it.
Could equivalent or better players than Skinner or Desharnais have been acquired by means other than through the draft?
If so, you generally would eschew the uncertainty (and losing) inherent in waiting on their development.
There is significant evidence that the most successful teams acquire their core players (top 6 forwards and top pairing D) through the draft and then fill out their rosters through trades and signings of free agents.
Tampa, Colorado and Vegas have followed this template although Vegas is somewhat of an outlier due to the expansion draft but in some ways it proves the point that superior pro scouting and analytics are guides since expansion draft acquisitions are established players not 18 year olds.
You keep banging this drum but the answer is as it has always been.
You need a mix.
Tampa and Colorado wandered in the desert for years accumulating draft picks that could be used. Edmonton wandered in the desert for years accumulating failed draft picks.
I’m sorry HH but all you are doing with this line of argument is revealing that you have no experience in management. Every situation is different. If you start the business you use one strategy if you have enough money to lose money for a couple of years. If you need to make money by month three you go a different way. And if you get the job and everything is in place that is different than if they hired you because they are bleeding money.
No one strategy works in any company. It depends on where you start, how much time you have, your budget, what assets are at your disposal.
If there was an infallible rule life would be easy. There is not.
And it’s relative. Vegas has a full roster they seem to think they can keep. So tehy have been trading prospects and keeping picks. They need players down the road a bit, not in the next season or two
When that time comes, they may switch it around. There is no one way, other than be active, aggressive and creative, and have the tools to evaluate well. Time waits for no one, and playing it too safe and slow leads to the what is the Jets fizzling out their core under Sleepy McChevy
Asleep while his locker room has been and seems to be some sort of mayhem, over years. Back to Byf and Kane. He should have dealt with it, but instead ends up in a mess, underachieved, and in a weak bargaining position
When you write about Colorado or Los Angeles or whomever, it’s always implied the Oilers are just awful at everything.
The Oilers are a fine team, Stanley Cup contender. Stuart Skinner is an excellent goaltender, Evan Bouchard was an inspired selection when many alternatives were available.
There’s more than one way to win. I learned that when Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals won the WS and were followed by an Earl Weaver roster winning for the Orioles the following year.
I know it pains you to give the Oilers credit, but this is a strong roster with a chance to win Stanley.
It needs to be said among all of these “my oh my this other team has a magic wand” verbal you bring and inspire.
Well, a quick glance suggests the Edmonton Oilers have approximately equal odds across betting sites. With 4-6 drafted forwards, 3D, 1G. And very much purging their prospects and picks. I think the reason Vegas and Colorado have been successful isn’t that they have a better strategy, it’s they have been effective in identifying undervalued players in other organizations and overvalued players or picks in their own. Get good players, keep good players, and they’ve been the best at it in recent times.
I think the evaluating is only part of that. It’s also having the culture and coaches to get the most out of players and use them properly. Most teams don’t do that well enough
It’s why every player on those teams seems good, until they go elsewhere and are just regular players again for whatever role they play in the league
“And, yes, identifying undervalued players on other teams is the key to making this work.
Tampa, Colorado and now Vegas have been very adept at it.”
To LT’s point, the theme of your posts being that every team is smarter than the Oilers, and you going on to applaud Tampa for acquiring undervalued players like…
To Tampa Bay
F Tanner Jeannot
To Nashville
D Cal Foote
2025 1st RD pick (Top 10 Protected)
2024 2nd RD pick
2023 3rd RD pick
2023 4th RD pick
Is “adept” the right word on a miss that big? Or maybe some teams are a bit luckier with their acquisitions than others?
That was a bizarre deal and not done by the guy that built the cup teams. Done by the guy destroying it
Kind of like the the trail left by Gorton
OriginalPouzar
July 10, 2023 10:09 am
Yanni Kaldis is heading to the KHL.
He provided some good minutes for the Condors the last few seasons.
OriginalPouzar
July 10, 2023 9:35 am
How long did it take the Condors coaching staff to figure out the rookies a year ago? In fairness to coach Chaulk and his men, the club iced a bunch of rookies last year. Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie and Noah Philp all played a lot and they weren’t the only rookies the organization deployed at center and on the wings.
As the calendar was set to turn last season, Coach Chaulk continued to take much heat from Oiler fans for his deployment of the rookie prospects. Save Bourgault (who started out very hot in all game states but came back down to earth and had an up and down season), each of them took time to gain traction, get comfortable with the pro game, gain the coach’s trust and earn a larger role and more minutes. Each of Tulio, Savoie and Philp were healthy scratched.
Savoie aside, who never got on track mainly due to injuries, the other all gained traction and have successful development seasons – I throw Lavoie in there as well.
4 rookie forwards last season and, this coming season, we can expect Petrov, Chiasson, Grubbe.
I think Grubbe will get the “coach’s trust” deployment early.
OriginalPouzar
July 10, 2023 8:59 am
McLeod’s arb case is set for August 4 – right at the end of the hearing window.
In some respects, I’m glad there is a bit more runway to get the deal negotiated before arb but, on the other hand, the sooner the better – lets lock in the numbers on McLeod and Bouchard to see what, if anything, can be done.
Even though I realize we are in “win now” mode, I am still of the opinion that the best way to win now AND not crumble the future, is that one of Foegle or Kulak and their $2.75 million cap hit have to go ASAP. That leaves us with roughly $8.37 mill of cap room. $850K for Lavoie. Take most of the remainder to sign McLeod and Bouchard (eg. $2 mill/$5 mill) for as long as they will do that for. Replace with Holloway or Niemelainen (depending on which is traded) or use a small amount of the money on a UFA replacement (winger and LHD easiest to find for the role of 3-4LW or 6-7D)
I am definitely one of the leaders that “win now” isn’t limited to the current season and decisions need to make sense now but also in, at least the short and medium term. For example, I’m “fine” with the Brown contract but was maybe the first to express that I’m far from in love with the contract and cringe at the near term consequences.
At the same time, I’m not positive about the above approach.
Niemo on the opening healthy roster means that defence is almost assuredly not good though.
I’m not sure Holloway is replacing Foegele as those are likely the 3rd line wingers and that transaction likely brings Caggiula on to the roster in addition to Lavoie and Pederson.
I also don’t think $5MM AAV gets you any more than 3 years with Bouch.
OriginalPouzar
July 10, 2023 8:57 am
Aghhh, Petrov – what a high skilled prospect.
I have no idea if he’s going to light up the AHL from the get-go next season or if he’s going to take some time to get used to the speed and the strength of players, etc. as we often see with first year pros.
I don’t think he’s the “standard 6th round pick”. I think the lack of eyes on him given Covid in his draft season is a reason he fell so late. He was the 1st pick in the CHL import draft but wasn’t able to come over prior to the draft.
Goals were down this season but the points were still there. Usually the lack of an offensive “pop” year over year in the CHL would be a bit concerning but both of his lineamtes, who were very good CHL players and real prospects, graduated to pro hockey and he was the main driver this past season.
I also hear he was dealing with a wrist injury most of the season.
In any event, there is extra reason for me to hope this prospect “makes it” – the Oilers used the pick that Dubas refused to take for the rights to Hyman to take Petrov. Not only do the Oilers get a very high potential prospect because Dubas “stuck to his guns and got nothing” but, at least for me, I never wanted an 8th year on Hyman, even if the AAV would have gone down a couple hundred grand.
— I mean sure, but really they don’t have tools to know.
— Gallant and DeBoer were fine coaches and they got fired before Cassidy won Cup
— Many share view that Jay got “outcoached” in the playoffs
— For sure he’s done if they don’t at least go to Cup this year and/or struggle first half of season. Blues and Penguins (twice) fired coaches during season and won Cup
— Most coaches aren’t all that. Jay is like most coaches IMO.
— NYT shutting down in house sports is shocking reflection of sports journalism landscape on some level: most professional sports teams in the world. Largest paper viewership, must successful online paper. Sure the Athletic is part of NY Times but it’s not the same.
Woodcroft is tied to Holland, so if Staios wants a new coach that’ll happen. My own feeling is that Woodcroft isn’t close to being fired, nor will he be next spring. A collapse is unlikely, the Vegas Golden Knights would have lost the series if Brossoit doesn’t get hurt, and what we’re dealing with here currently is people’s anger.
Somewhere along the way convinced themselves they were promised Stanley when McDavid arrived. McDavid will win Stanley but it may not be here.
As for the changing media landscape, I began my career as a broadcaster on June 15, 1980. It has been and continues to be an evolving industry. I don’t see that changing and long ago came to grips with the uncertainty of the path chosen.
I always find the “out-coached” argument funny because coaching skill is often tied to the luck of their goalie. We all saw Adin Hill put up a .930 save percentage and know we were just unlucky. Cassidy coached a playoff team 8 times with 3 first round exits, 3 second round exits, 2 trips to the finals and one win. He’s a good coach but you need to be good and lucky to win. Woodcroft is good and it will probably come down to the goalie whether he wins it all.
Agree completely. Our minds don’t accept luck and random outcomes so we create reasons. Those reasons give us comfort and someone to blame. Shit happens is not a satisfactory explanation.
— I’d also add that Oil didn’t lose solely due to luck or sh?t happening. The only question is what percent does one allocate to coaching vs roster Vs schedule Vs overall talent.
— I’m fairly sure the organization would chalk it up almost entirely to learning and growth and being more ready next year rather than any better formalized measures. I agree they think coach is fine, nothing there carry on. He might well be.
Cassidy coached his team how to breakdown the Oilers man-to-man defense (by skating defenders into obstacles, or to skate them out of position and out to the blueline). Woodcroft had no response. Vegas also played a low variance game. No mistakes. The Oilers are still a loose team. Cassidy found Eichel easy matchups, and dictated the matchups because Woodcroft refused to use McDavid against Eichel.
I’m fine with Woodcroft as coach. He is young. He will learn (hopefully).
This is where I can’t agree with LT that this is all just bitter taste in mouth
With Woody it is more than a matter that they lost, so blame someone. There were a lot of problems with his choices and his reactions to changing seas. Yes they were in games, but that is a function of having CMD. Again they couldn’t hold leads, and couldn’t make all of the miracle comebacks they needed, which are much easier reg season. The timely PP goals didn’t appear, again. It is Woody’s system that did not fix the chronic chaotic defensive play, made the goalies’ jobs much harder, and was easy to break so the victor said
He was stubborn as a mule, and it didn’t work again. He had the pass of being a mid season coach when he came in (but as you said other teams have won in that scenario, when the coach was on the mark with people and systems). Again he refused to elevate players in place of the ineffective or too injured, and they didn’t get the job done. Like the playoffs before
He wouldn’t or didn’t match lines to fix problems, won’t really change lines or pairs regardless of their outcomes. Cassidy rejigged his top line because it wasn’t working against the Jets. And the thing is he is a very experienced coach at the NHL level, in his own words. Sort of young. I think he suffers from trying to be the smartest man in the room type of thing. The last two coaches that beat him are hyper competitive, treat people well, former players that know hockey well enough
But mainly are jocks at heart, and tailor things that way, instead of trying to be too technical. I don’t think that the players get or can do what the coaches ask. The proof is what we see on the ice. The GA. Wobbly 5v5 – great for a while this year, until the chips were down. Like Eakins found, all surprised his system was beyond them, didn’t seem to notice what he had to work with
Is he a good coach? I think so. Is he better than average? Not until he proves it, because he’s riding the coattails of possibly two generational players who both have great team first attitudes. He has such an advantage, he only has to be as good as the other coach strategically, and have the team play well around them and support them. That’s the easy part. I put a lot of the success and growth at the feet of the talent and having the core players hit prime with hard experience. A smart pick and the lottery balls solved the hard part
— yeah this is roughly my view. I don’t see how you can chalk it all up to bad luck Amd not watch those games and think he got out coached. He needs to get better, as well as luck
To me the system and coaching are what minimize the effects of luck. Assuming you have enough talent and we do. I felt they were relying on luck way too much, instead of making certain types of higher chance plays happen repeatedly on purpose offensively, and the opposite defensively
I would also posit that MUCH more goes in to coaching than any of us can profess to know or have the ability to analyze.
Of course, there are many decisions that Woody makes that I don’t agree with and I certainly saw what looked to be some systems based issues in the defensive zone in the playoffs that on the surface makes it look like Woody/Manson were “out-coached” but I always stop short of that label given how much more goes in to coaching a team to a Stanley Cup that what we can analyze vis-a-vis deployment and higher end systems matters).
I don’t agree with that. If I have an opinion on what happens it isn’t the same thing as saying I could go coach the Oilers better than Woody. Or even Eakins. But I can see the results and breakdowns, what teams that beat us do that beats us, have a brain (don’t say it!) and have watched a lot of NHL hockey over a long time, so can see what isn’t working and sometimes why
I read what more knowledgeable people say about it. I read what you folks think. And an opinion forms that is valid. Mine and yours and everyone’s, even if we all don’t get it right. The discussion is awesome though because hearing all sides makes everyone more informed. Even if we don’t agree
That is actually what consultants do right? Look at things from an outside position and point out common sense mistakes that often aren’t seen internally? At least that’s what a consultant told me once
Yes, I agree with most of that but, at the same time, as much hockey as I’ve watched over the years, I can’t profess to have an informed idea in to what goes in to coaching an NHL hockey team on any sort of day to day or hour by hour basis let alone in the 40 hour between games in a playoff series.
I can see what I think look like mistakes on the ice but I would gather many (most) are execution as opposed to a bad system.
Not to mention all the “non-hockey” matters that coaches attend to include managing relationships and personalities of 23 (or more) players and a coaching staff – on a day to day and week to week and month to month basis.
True I don’t profess to know the actual breakdowns and rely on others for that information if it comes. But I don’t need to be a qualified NHL coach to know above 3 GA/G doesn’t work. And that’s on coaches and management. Their responsibility
If the players aren’t good enough fix it. Personally I don’t think it was a player issue
Qualified by Woody wouldn’t change out useless players for whatever the reason was, twice. That is a stubborn and or uncreative man. And there were options, at least this time
If that happens it means Woody’s look at everything didn’t determine the structure he chose is not going to do what is needed, and they give it another whirl, and I’ll be ropeable
The mainstream media is now composed of state/establishment approved narratives (with varying degrees of truthfulness and truthiness).. Sports does not fit the model. When sports fully becomes pro-wrestling, i.e. manufactured and approved narrative, it will be “news” that is fit to print again.
Political journalism was that way 40 years ago when I worked in the media & politics – I saw it from both sides.
The difference is that there is now an alternative mass communication system that the msm doesn’t have full control over that tells a different story – sometimes more truthful; sometimes more fanciful.
Speculation there could be big changes to HNIC in the fall.
https://betweentheposts.ca/2023/07/only-elliotte-friedman-is-safe/
It’s Hockey people want entertainment. Save the lecturing for your own glass house.
There’s a TV show I accidentally watched where people from 4 different generations compete to answer questions but everyone is so JACKED to BE ON TV its essentially 22 minutes of straight woo-ing and hollering and high fives and I have a headache just thinking about it I guess HNIC will move in that direction.
Tyler Benson signs an AHL deal with Henderson.
I courioused a few days back about where he’d end up and figured an AHL deal, as opposed to a 2-way NHL deal was more likely.
I really don’t get Canadian hockey players. Why would you sign an AHL deal when you could play in Italy or Switzerland and have a great experience and quality of life. Missed opportunity.
The problem with Canadians going overseas is that you aren’t near your family, you don’t know anyone, you don’t speak the local language and you essentially give up on being an NHL player.
Three positives out of four. 😎
Pretty damning that this is one of the last shots at an internal candidate for 97’s wing. Not that I disagreed with (most) of the picks at the time but you think since 2015…
2016: Pulju over Tkachuk/Keller, Benson over Debrincat
2017: Yamo over Robertson
2019: Broberg over Zegras/Boldy/Caufield
2020: Holloway over Mercer
2021: Bourgault over Johnston
Each, outside of Broberg, was defensible at the time but man – missing that many times is a tough indictment of the amateur scouting.
The only ones I really think were big were Debrincat and Zegras. The rest I don’t believe were championed too much in Oilerland. I don’t think it’s any tougher of an indictment when for example Robertson was taken 17 picks later. At least 30-35 team picks missed on him. Yams statistically is scoring higher than his draft spot in points and games played. Same with Johnston, at first redraft he should be top 5. That’s not letting Wright off the hook just pointing out its an inexact science even with the best of drafting teams.
I guess that’s why they’re all called prospects. Shout out to Dallas’ scouting department though. And im sure Wallstedt will cause much wailing in the coming years.
Also not fair to count, but I still do:
The pick that mighta been Barzal.
That’s not really on the scouts, they never had the opportunity to pick.
But you’re right, that one will sting for a long time.
Oettinger 4 picks after Yamamoto hurts.
Not as much as Mitch Moroz or Troy Hesketh or Nail Yakupov. Progress has been made.
I liked Nail I really thought him and Mcdavid had started developing chemistry. Remember when Wideman hurt the Linesman well it doesn’t even come close to the brutal injury Nail recieved from another Linesman. Watching the Ref pull down Nail was like seeing a drowning person pulling down the person who’s trying to save them.
Ouch! Edmonton Oilers have one of the worst prospect pools in NHL, draft expert says
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/ouch-edmonton-oilers-have-one-of-the-worst-prospect-pools-in-nhl-draft-expert-says
That’s fairly common for teams in their contention windows, and I’d be shocked if you didn’t already know as much.
Colorado, Dallas and Carolina all ranked in the top half of the league in those rankings.
Rondo has posted this article a couple of times with the same article headline but excludes the line immediately after which is
“But this should not be any kind of surprise”
Big deal … other teams have more magic beans.
We have more superstars.
When the draft has a weaker cohort sometimes drafting high actually limits options. Yak was consensus #1. I didn’t think it would work for him in Edmonton. We had a terrible track record with ‘Russians’ and he isn’t even, a step even further removed and different. Being in NA worked in junior where he was a superstar. Not so much when he didn’t have NHL stuff and was asked to play NHL hockey
Nobody would have taken Tkachuk over JP because Matt looked like he might be shy with O for the NHL. He is a big jerk though so Flames all in. Nor taken Robertson where Yama was picked
Bro and Holloway certainly debatable, but to me outside of the top 5 or 10 sometimes it’s pretty hard to tell who’s better or will be better. There may be a math push as LT says, but they are lower because there is something not quite there. So they choose what they like for traits in players
Bob Mackenzie’s list had Robertson at 30 so not a huge reach.
Right. I would have gone a different route than KY anyways
Instead of going with Debrincat who was McDavid teammate they chose Benson. The following year they weren’t going to pass on the little guy Yamamoto after seeing Debrincat pop 28 in his rookie season.
DeBrincat didn’t go straight to the NHL. He hasn’t yet played an NHL game when Yamamoto was drafted.
Right you are maybe there was a glitch in the system because I would swear on my deathbed that little Debrincat busted out before the Yamamoto draft.
It’s interesting, but I wonder if the scouting was actually substantially downgraded when we switched from Geen/ Gretzky to Tyler Wright.
The Red Wings had an awful run in the 1st round. Zadina and Svechnikov were both placed on waivers. Cholowski was exposed to Seattle. That’s 3/4 first round picks in a row.
The vaunted 2015 draft left the Wings with nothing to show from it. They were only missing a second rounder.
The Broberg and Holloway picks went walkabout on Mckenzie’s list. Bourgeault was a result of that trade down on the Wallstedt.
Going with Mckenzie’s list and we would have done a lot better in hindsight than Broberg, Holloway, and Bourgeault.
Looking at the Stars draft history is depressing.
Roope HInz 49th, 2015.
The 2017 draft of a lifetime.
Wyatt Johnson…
Logan Stankhoven in the second round coming right up.
Some have stated Dallas has just been lucky.
At some point you have to recognize excellence.
They look for certain things. High goals to assist ratio seems like a thing with them to me
Stankoven is a great young man but I’ll be surprised if he rises above tweener
Small, unusual skating, not elite offensively, not nasty. The usual obstacles that don’t work out in the NHL
2017 was a draft of a lifetime for Dallas for sure.
In terms of Wright, he was scouting direct for Detroit for the 2014 through 2019 drafts. I’m curious what those drafts look like for Detroit vs. Dallas.
2014
Detroit
15th – Larkin 584GP – 5th in points from 2014
106th – Ehn 114GP
Dallas
14th – Honka 87GP (that’s it)
2015
Detroit
19th – Svechnikov 172GP
Dallas
12th – Gurianov 280GP
49th – Hintz 312GP – Home run, 11th in scoring from 2015
2016
Detroit
26th – Cholowski 117GP
46th – Smith 119GP
53rd – Hronek 309GP – 15th in points, 6th among D
Dallas
no one topped 40GP
2017
Detroit
9th – Rasmussen 238GP
38th – Lindstrom 128GP
Dallas
3rd – Heiskanen 354GP
26th – Oettinger 139GP
39th – Roberston 210GP
132nd – Peterson 77GP
2018
Detroit
6th – Zadina 190GP
30th – Veleno 152GP
33rd – Berggren 68GP
Dallas
13th – Dellandrea 109GP
2019
Detroit
6th – Seider 164GP
159th – Soderblom 21GP
Dallas
18th – Harley 40GP
The 2017 draft obviously takes it for Dallas overall, but I think you’d have to give the edge to Detroit over the other 5 years.
Not an abject wasteland of drafting under Wright at least, which is good to see.
And Dallas was not hitting home runs outside 2017 either it seems.
You’re not accounting for how many picks Dallas had in those drafts.
For example in 2019, the Stars made only 4 picks…none in the second or third rounds.
And GP is also deceptive in that it does not account for the different difficulty in any given player making the roster which is far harder to do in Dallas than it is on a bottom feeding team in Detroit.
Players like, Dellandrea and Harley would very likely have significantly higher totals if drafted by Detroit.
Perhaps I’m just not recognizing excellence.
That would seem to be the case,
We’ve learned from watching the Oilers that drafting a Teddy Peckman, having him patrol the bottom pairing on a non-contending team for 160 games, then end up in the ECHL doesn’t move the needle.
The trick with drafting is to find a large enough cluster of talent in a short time frame to build a contender. Or the players have to be moved in trade for key assets to do same.
We’re talking top six forwards, 3c, and top pairing d and goalie. Elite players are what matter the most.
Instead of games played, why don’t we look at roster stops filled? This shows the discrepancy.
Dallas Stars
Dallas has #1c Hintz and 1LW Robertson.
Wyatt Johnson 2c though he was 2020.
Dellandrea is a 3RW
Heiskanen is 1RD.
Oettinger is G.
Oettinger, Robertson, Hintz, and Heiskanen are elite
Red Wings
Larkin is 1c.
Hronek was traded to Vancouver. 2nd pair RD?
Cholowskiwas claimed in expansion draft then a waiver claimRasmussen is a 4c
SvechnikovandZadinawaiver fodderSeider is a very talent defenseman, plays top pair RD.
Bergrenn is a 2 LW?
Veleno is a 4c/ tweener still?
The wings drafted a 1c in Larkin, then swung out on 4 1st round picks in a row. They managed to get Seider which was a great pick. So they found a 1c and 1RD. They traded Hronek and 4rth for a 1st and a second.
What they haven’t been able to do is fill out the rest of their roster with important draft picks.
If you look at the Yzerplan, he’s in trouble because he’s had to go out and sign or trade for all of the pieces.
The Oilers outdrafted the wings in 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018. The wings take 2016. 2015 is interesting, if discounting the obvious pick for McDavid, we had a better draft with all of our other picks outside of the top 100. 2014 is maybe not fair because we had Draisaitl. Still I’m not sure Wright is an upgrade, are you?
It kind of is a trick though, it’s largely luck to hit on those clusters.
A team that picks Heiskanen-Oettinger-Robertson with consecutive picks in 2017 but drafts Ty Dellandrea as the only NHL regular from 2016+2018 drafts isn’t doing things reproducibly.
And I agree that Dallas fared better 2014-2019 based on that 2017 draft, I said that.
In terms of impact, there is a gap but it isn’t as big as you’re making it out to be.
Dallas drafted
Hintz 1C
Robertson 1LW
Dellandrea 3RW
Heiskanen 1RD
Oettinger Starting G
If you want to include Johnson (2RW) from 2020 then I guess we should include Raymond (1LW) for Detroit as well?
Detroit drafted
Larkin 1C
Berggren 2LW
Rasmussen 3C (3C is actually totally unfair as he was top 6 in TOI, points, elite TOI)
Seider 1RD (not Heiskanen level obviously)
Hronek 1/2RD (played 1D minutes for 4 years, but probably 2RD on a good team)
Dallas came out ahead, as I said, but both teams drafted 5 legitimate players from the 6 drafts.
Philadelphia Flyers
@NHLFlyers
OFFICIAL: We have signed defenseman Cam York to a two-year, $3.2 million contract ($1.6 million AAV).
York was picked 14th in the Broberg draft.
87GP 30PTS
For the powerhouse Flyers no less.
Are you laying the foundation for another “Ty Smith is better than Evan Bouchard” classic hit?
No, York seems to have somewhat underperformed his draft pedigree and this contract reflects that.
Why are the Oilers so hesitant to pencil Broberg in the top 6. Bells and whistles are going off.
5’11” 175 lbs. I’ll stick with Bro. It’s 5 years out that matters, let’s chat in a year or so
That pretty much is the ante for a two-year transition deal for a defenseman coming out of their entry level deal. 2/3rds the minimum for a competent veteran 3rd pairing D. The ante for a one-year is the QO. The 2nd year is buying the defenseman out of arbitration. It is sort of what Broberg’s one or two year transitions will look like if he does nothing special.
Remember, Bouchard is going to get somewhere between $3.5 and 4.0 per year on a two-year transition.
You would hope for better than competent third pairing D at that draft spot.
That was Bouchard’s role as a 22 year old, no?
I read below that Bouchard is an elite 5×5 defenseman although a quick check of NHL stats actually show him 39th in the league despite playing on one of the highest scoring teams in the league.
While far from terrible, one should expect a top 10 pick to deliver commensurate results especially for an “offensive” defenseman.
York, while younger, strikes me as a similar type of player.
12th among d-men in 5 on 5 points in 2021/22 and 18th over the course of the last two seasons (even with 3 months of production struggles this sesaon).
Last season, more 5 on 5 points than the likes of Weegan, Hannafin, Theodore, Trouba, Slavin, Ekblad, Burns, Paraykho, Montour, Dahlin, Q. Hughes, Orlov, Carlson, Severson, etc.
Over the course of the two seasons (including that massive slump) more 5 on 5 points than the likes of Hamilton, Riley, Weegar, Severson, Hieskenan, McCavoy, Ghost, Hannifin, Trouba, Dobson etc., etc.
One starts at the beginning, not at the end. Remember, if it were me, Broberg would be playing with Nurse in the top four, but Woodcroft has put him on the milk run bus to the top 4.
Remember, Bouchard is an elite offensive d-man (both on the PP and at 5 on 5).
Just thinking out loud… Hellebuyk and Demelo for Campbell and one of Ceci or Bouchard, draft picks going either way as sweeteners to balance it out? Does Edmonton say yes or no? Does Winnipeg say yes or no? Perhaps a conditional portion on resigning Hellebuyk? (I can NEVER remember bow to spell his name!)
Also Broberg could move up to get more minutes on the right side?
Nope, no thank you. From accounts, he’s looking in the $9MM – $10MM range on a re-sign – nope, no thank you.
As an aside, can no longer have trade conditions with the condition based on the player re-signing.
Gracias, amigo. Like I said , i was just musing aloud, and I appreciate the input. You typiccally have good insight,by my lights.
Zadina signs with SJS – 1 year, $1.1MM (per Seravelli).
Sad times. I was hoping he’d sign with the Oil as a 3rd liner and have Foegele move up to second line more permanently.
Oh well. I didn’t think it would happen, just a hope.
Brown?
I wonder if Zadina was offered straight up
for Yamamoto or vice-versa?
Why would EDM do that? They would have had $1.275MM less cap space in that deal.
Kostin wasn’t going to sign here; he’d priced himself off the team.
Since Kostin was as good as gone they bundled his rights with KY to get rid of his cap hit entirely.
The deal was the same as a buyout, at zero cost.
This is not difficult to comprehend.
They could of recieved a D-man prospect in a trade for Kostin since Holland burned through over a half-dozen prospects since appearing on the scene. Holland liked Zadina enough to pick him 6th so I do think him and his buddy Yzerman talked about Zadina more than this blog thinks.
Saying “they could of received…..” doesn’t mean its actually true.
The Oilers would have had zero interest in Zadina at his contract.
They got rid of Zadina with zero cap hit.
They have two years of dead cap hit from Yamo.
Not to mention the Oilers couldn’t afford, nor would have wanted, Zadina at near $2MM per.
…dang. How did I forget about Brown. Oops. Yes, that final top 6 spot is his to lose.
Zadina and his whopping 3 goals in his age 23 season tell me he couldn’t sniff the Oilers third line.
If he scores 25 this year is he still considered a bum? No doubt Yzerman knows how to evaluate prospects but I think this whole scenario was done for a reason other than Hockey.
Does that apply to Yamamoto too?
Most definitely maybe he’ll be on PP1 if he gets off to a hot start. The one thing I’ll give him credit for is at tipping pucks. If he ever scores the same amount as PTO Chaisson 22 in the future I’ll never bad mouth him again.
It depends what you need. If you need goals more than anything and have no hope of winning a Cup, offense only types help. Goals are fun for the fans, especially semi interested US fans. Remember the good old Oiler days of exciting losing hockey? For Zadina it seems two way play and offense is the challenge
For Yama, I think he’s gets so beat to crap that he only managed the one stretch of really solid play both ways. It’s not talent or heart, but those things aren’t all that’s needed
Its likely his hands are pretty much made of stone…..
It’ll be interesting to see the 2nd line crush the opposition and with Campbell settled in this team will push Colorado for 1st in the West.
They already finished ahead of Colorado this past season.
Winning the Stanley Cup is the hardest thing to do in all sports nevermind the quick turnaround to repeat. Players don’t have enough time to recover from injuries and hangovers. The Av’s are rested up and have a burr in their saddle.
His odds of becoming a feature forward in 23/24 are considerably higher in San Jose than they would be with a team like the Oilers. He needs playing time and opportunity to get his career back on track.
I love that Petrov seems a little undercover and might just come out of nowhere as a drafted sniper the Oilers are waiting for.
I missed Bougault conversation. Let me add, he is not near the same player as Jessie with big swoops all over the ice. Similar with Holloway and Yamo forechecking and hunting pucks. I think you find Bougault on right wing, 10 feet from the boards. That is home and he’s predictable. You know who loves predictable? Connor. And Leon. Its how Maroon scored 27 goals. Bougault does not bring Maroon toolbox of course, but he did his job, played his wing, was right where he was supposed to be.
I don’t know if it will be enough but I think Bougaults passing game, and his 10 foot from the boards home base will make up for any lack of offense in AHL. Hope so.
Im missing your radio show today LT. Just sayin.
Well, things are progressing, we’ll see what comes out in the wash.
Wishing you the best on that front.
I read an article yesterday about the concern in the long-standing NYT sports department and a recent letter that had been written to management at the NYT.
Well, it didn’t work – the NYT is disbanding their sports department and relying solely on The Athletic for sports content.
They will no doubt rebrand it to the NYT Sports Pages.
Lowetide, your intrepid New York Times reporter.
A long way from Maidstone, Saskatchewan.
If I was an NHL GM, I’d trade prospects either before their first year in the AHL or in year 2+. That adjustment is big and a big hit to their value as well.
Definitely an underutilized method in today’s NHL. Much more of this sort of thing happens in MLB.
Capitalize on someone out there thinking a marginal prospect has value. Almost always a chance of that early. Then dwindles quickly.
Yeah, I always look back at players like Slava Trukno and wonder if we’d moved him what we could have gotten. His last year of junior was fire but he never scored in the AHL. When we traded for Pronger it was essentially straight across for Eric Brewer because Doug Lynch and Jeff Woywitka were considered top prospects about to pop but neither had a substantial career.
Agreed. What do you think we could have gotten for Skinner if we had traded him after his 2nd year in Bakersfield? If we had thrown Desharnais in to the mix who knows what they could have brought back. 🥸
Seriously, I think there is a reason why our host cites 5 years from the draft before pronouncing what kind of career a player will have. Sometimes you can tell early and sometimes its not clear. That is why the team employs professional scouts and sometimes they get it wrong but I don’t think there is a rule that guarantees success just by following it.
Could equivalent or better players than Skinner or Desharnais have been acquired by means other than through the draft?
If so, you generally would eschew the uncertainty (and losing) inherent in waiting on their development.
There is significant evidence that the most successful teams acquire their core players (top 6 forwards and top pairing D) through the draft and then fill out their rosters through trades and signings of free agents.
Tampa, Colorado and Vegas have followed this template although Vegas is somewhat of an outlier due to the expansion draft but in some ways it proves the point that superior pro scouting and analytics are guides since expansion draft acquisitions are established players not 18 year olds.
You keep banging this drum but the answer is as it has always been.
You need a mix.
Tampa and Colorado wandered in the desert for years accumulating draft picks that could be used. Edmonton wandered in the desert for years accumulating failed draft picks.
I’m sorry HH but all you are doing with this line of argument is revealing that you have no experience in management. Every situation is different. If you start the business you use one strategy if you have enough money to lose money for a couple of years. If you need to make money by month three you go a different way. And if you get the job and everything is in place that is different than if they hired you because they are bleeding money.
No one strategy works in any company. It depends on where you start, how much time you have, your budget, what assets are at your disposal.
If there was an infallible rule life would be easy. There is not.
A good rule of thumb could be…
Can you trade this developing prospect for the draft pick expended to acquire him?
And it’s relative. Vegas has a full roster they seem to think they can keep. So tehy have been trading prospects and keeping picks. They need players down the road a bit, not in the next season or two
When that time comes, they may switch it around. There is no one way, other than be active, aggressive and creative, and have the tools to evaluate well. Time waits for no one, and playing it too safe and slow leads to the what is the Jets fizzling out their core under Sleepy McChevy
Asleep while his locker room has been and seems to be some sort of mayhem, over years. Back to Byf and Kane. He should have dealt with it, but instead ends up in a mess, underachieved, and in a weak bargaining position
Colorado is a prime example of what I’m saying.
Their current roster is comprised of TWO drafted forwards, MacKinnion and Rantanen (plus injured Landeskog)
Their D features only TWO drafted players, Makar and Byram.
Both goaltenders were drafted by other teams.
They’ve purged their prospect capital in pursuit of winning and once again are betting favourites to win the cup.
When you write about Colorado or Los Angeles or whomever, it’s always implied the Oilers are just awful at everything.
The Oilers are a fine team, Stanley Cup contender. Stuart Skinner is an excellent goaltender, Evan Bouchard was an inspired selection when many alternatives were available.
There’s more than one way to win. I learned that when Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals won the WS and were followed by an Earl Weaver roster winning for the Orioles the following year.
I know it pains you to give the Oilers credit, but this is a strong roster with a chance to win Stanley.
It needs to be said among all of these “my oh my this other team has a magic wand” verbal you bring and inspire.
No magic wand required, merely a modern approach to working under a hard cap which Whitey and Earl never had to do to the best of my knowledge.
And no, the Oilers aren’t awful at everything but they do have a few inefficient contracts on the books which the others do not.
The piper always get paid.
Well, a quick glance suggests the Edmonton Oilers have approximately equal odds across betting sites. With 4-6 drafted forwards, 3D, 1G. And very much purging their prospects and picks. I think the reason Vegas and Colorado have been successful isn’t that they have a better strategy, it’s they have been effective in identifying undervalued players in other organizations and overvalued players or picks in their own. Get good players, keep good players, and they’ve been the best at it in recent times.
You may want to review how Tampa handled their picks and prospects en route to Stanley.
And, yes, identifying undervalued players on other teams is the key to making this work.
Tampa, Colorado and now Vegas have been very adept at it.
I think the evaluating is only part of that. It’s also having the culture and coaches to get the most out of players and use them properly. Most teams don’t do that well enough
It’s why every player on those teams seems good, until they go elsewhere and are just regular players again for whatever role they play in the league
I mean how many waiver wire guys played deep this year and obviously had enough to contribute. When was the last time the Oilers did that?
“And, yes, identifying undervalued players on other teams is the key to making this work.
Tampa, Colorado and now Vegas have been very adept at it.”
To LT’s point, the theme of your posts being that every team is smarter than the Oilers, and you going on to applaud Tampa for acquiring undervalued players like…
To Tampa Bay
F Tanner Jeannot
To Nashville
D Cal Foote
2025 1st RD pick (Top 10 Protected)
2024 2nd RD pick
2023 3rd RD pick
2023 4th RD pick
Is “adept” the right word on a miss that big? Or maybe some teams are a bit luckier with their acquisitions than others?
That was a bizarre deal and not done by the guy that built the cup teams. Done by the guy destroying it
Kind of like the the trail left by Gorton
Yanni Kaldis is heading to the KHL.
He provided some good minutes for the Condors the last few seasons.
As the calendar was set to turn last season, Coach Chaulk continued to take much heat from Oiler fans for his deployment of the rookie prospects. Save Bourgault (who started out very hot in all game states but came back down to earth and had an up and down season), each of them took time to gain traction, get comfortable with the pro game, gain the coach’s trust and earn a larger role and more minutes. Each of Tulio, Savoie and Philp were healthy scratched.
Savoie aside, who never got on track mainly due to injuries, the other all gained traction and have successful development seasons – I throw Lavoie in there as well.
4 rookie forwards last season and, this coming season, we can expect Petrov, Chiasson, Grubbe.
I think Grubbe will get the “coach’s trust” deployment early.
McLeod’s arb case is set for August 4 – right at the end of the hearing window.
In some respects, I’m glad there is a bit more runway to get the deal negotiated before arb but, on the other hand, the sooner the better – lets lock in the numbers on McLeod and Bouchard to see what, if anything, can be done.
Even though I realize we are in “win now” mode, I am still of the opinion that the best way to win now AND not crumble the future, is that one of Foegle or Kulak and their $2.75 million cap hit have to go ASAP. That leaves us with roughly $8.37 mill of cap room. $850K for Lavoie. Take most of the remainder to sign McLeod and Bouchard (eg. $2 mill/$5 mill) for as long as they will do that for. Replace with Holloway or Niemelainen (depending on which is traded) or use a small amount of the money on a UFA replacement (winger and LHD easiest to find for the role of 3-4LW or 6-7D)
I am definitely one of the leaders that “win now” isn’t limited to the current season and decisions need to make sense now but also in, at least the short and medium term. For example, I’m “fine” with the Brown contract but was maybe the first to express that I’m far from in love with the contract and cringe at the near term consequences.
At the same time, I’m not positive about the above approach.
Niemo on the opening healthy roster means that defence is almost assuredly not good though.
I’m not sure Holloway is replacing Foegele as those are likely the 3rd line wingers and that transaction likely brings Caggiula on to the roster in addition to Lavoie and Pederson.
I also don’t think $5MM AAV gets you any more than 3 years with Bouch.
Aghhh, Petrov – what a high skilled prospect.
I have no idea if he’s going to light up the AHL from the get-go next season or if he’s going to take some time to get used to the speed and the strength of players, etc. as we often see with first year pros.
I don’t think he’s the “standard 6th round pick”. I think the lack of eyes on him given Covid in his draft season is a reason he fell so late. He was the 1st pick in the CHL import draft but wasn’t able to come over prior to the draft.
Goals were down this season but the points were still there. Usually the lack of an offensive “pop” year over year in the CHL would be a bit concerning but both of his lineamtes, who were very good CHL players and real prospects, graduated to pro hockey and he was the main driver this past season.
I also hear he was dealing with a wrist injury most of the season.
In any event, there is extra reason for me to hope this prospect “makes it” – the Oilers used the pick that Dubas refused to take for the rights to Hyman to take Petrov. Not only do the Oilers get a very high potential prospect because Dubas “stuck to his guns and got nothing” but, at least for me, I never wanted an 8th year on Hyman, even if the AAV would have gone down a couple hundred grand.
Go Petrov!
New for The Athletic: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
https://theathletic.com/4677219/2023/07/10/oilers-coach-jay-woodcroft/
— I mean sure, but really they don’t have tools to know.
— Gallant and DeBoer were fine coaches and they got fired before Cassidy won Cup
— Many share view that Jay got “outcoached” in the playoffs
— For sure he’s done if they don’t at least go to Cup this year and/or struggle first half of season. Blues and Penguins (twice) fired coaches during season and won Cup
— Most coaches aren’t all that. Jay is like most coaches IMO.
— NYT shutting down in house sports is shocking reflection of sports journalism landscape on some level: most professional sports teams in the world. Largest paper viewership, must successful online paper. Sure the Athletic is part of NY Times but it’s not the same.
Woodcroft is tied to Holland, so if Staios wants a new coach that’ll happen. My own feeling is that Woodcroft isn’t close to being fired, nor will he be next spring. A collapse is unlikely, the Vegas Golden Knights would have lost the series if Brossoit doesn’t get hurt, and what we’re dealing with here currently is people’s anger.
Somewhere along the way convinced themselves they were promised Stanley when McDavid arrived. McDavid will win Stanley but it may not be here.
As for the changing media landscape, I began my career as a broadcaster on June 15, 1980. It has been and continues to be an evolving industry. I don’t see that changing and long ago came to grips with the uncertainty of the path chosen.
We’ll all survive.
I always find the “out-coached” argument funny because coaching skill is often tied to the luck of their goalie. We all saw Adin Hill put up a .930 save percentage and know we were just unlucky. Cassidy coached a playoff team 8 times with 3 first round exits, 3 second round exits, 2 trips to the finals and one win. He’s a good coach but you need to be good and lucky to win. Woodcroft is good and it will probably come down to the goalie whether he wins it all.
Agree completely. Our minds don’t accept luck and random outcomes so we create reasons. Those reasons give us comfort and someone to blame. Shit happens is not a satisfactory explanation.
— I’d also add that Oil didn’t lose solely due to luck or sh?t happening. The only question is what percent does one allocate to coaching vs roster Vs schedule Vs overall talent.
— I’m fairly sure the organization would chalk it up almost entirely to learning and growth and being more ready next year rather than any better formalized measures. I agree they think coach is fine, nothing there carry on. He might well be.
I think 29-5-6 probably convinced the Oilers they were good enough to win. I believe they are.
This is100 % absolutely bonafide truth,
Sometimes shit just don’t happen, and sometimes Metamucil and yogurt just aren’t enough….
Cassidy coached his team how to breakdown the Oilers man-to-man defense (by skating defenders into obstacles, or to skate them out of position and out to the blueline). Woodcroft had no response. Vegas also played a low variance game. No mistakes. The Oilers are still a loose team. Cassidy found Eichel easy matchups, and dictated the matchups because Woodcroft refused to use McDavid against Eichel.
I’m fine with Woodcroft as coach. He is young. He will learn (hopefully).
This is where I can’t agree with LT that this is all just bitter taste in mouth
With Woody it is more than a matter that they lost, so blame someone. There were a lot of problems with his choices and his reactions to changing seas. Yes they were in games, but that is a function of having CMD. Again they couldn’t hold leads, and couldn’t make all of the miracle comebacks they needed, which are much easier reg season. The timely PP goals didn’t appear, again. It is Woody’s system that did not fix the chronic chaotic defensive play, made the goalies’ jobs much harder, and was easy to break so the victor said
He was stubborn as a mule, and it didn’t work again. He had the pass of being a mid season coach when he came in (but as you said other teams have won in that scenario, when the coach was on the mark with people and systems). Again he refused to elevate players in place of the ineffective or too injured, and they didn’t get the job done. Like the playoffs before
He wouldn’t or didn’t match lines to fix problems, won’t really change lines or pairs regardless of their outcomes. Cassidy rejigged his top line because it wasn’t working against the Jets. And the thing is he is a very experienced coach at the NHL level, in his own words. Sort of young. I think he suffers from trying to be the smartest man in the room type of thing. The last two coaches that beat him are hyper competitive, treat people well, former players that know hockey well enough
But mainly are jocks at heart, and tailor things that way, instead of trying to be too technical. I don’t think that the players get or can do what the coaches ask. The proof is what we see on the ice. The GA. Wobbly 5v5 – great for a while this year, until the chips were down. Like Eakins found, all surprised his system was beyond them, didn’t seem to notice what he had to work with
Is he a good coach? I think so. Is he better than average? Not until he proves it, because he’s riding the coattails of possibly two generational players who both have great team first attitudes. He has such an advantage, he only has to be as good as the other coach strategically, and have the team play well around them and support them. That’s the easy part. I put a lot of the success and growth at the feet of the talent and having the core players hit prime with hard experience. A smart pick and the lottery balls solved the hard part
— yeah this is roughly my view. I don’t see how you can chalk it all up to bad luck Amd not watch those games and think he got out coached. He needs to get better, as well as luck
To me the system and coaching are what minimize the effects of luck. Assuming you have enough talent and we do. I felt they were relying on luck way too much, instead of making certain types of higher chance plays happen repeatedly on purpose offensively, and the opposite defensively
— Thanks for this.
— We dont know what we dont know but I can’t imagine Woodcroft surviving a start of the season like Tippett (also Hollands guy).
— Whether it’s his fault or not, he’s done if they are below .500 25-30 games into next season.
— No one promised Oil a Cup, true, but this year is go time. Everyone on the teams says so
I would also posit that MUCH more goes in to coaching than any of us can profess to know or have the ability to analyze.
Of course, there are many decisions that Woody makes that I don’t agree with and I certainly saw what looked to be some systems based issues in the defensive zone in the playoffs that on the surface makes it look like Woody/Manson were “out-coached” but I always stop short of that label given how much more goes in to coaching a team to a Stanley Cup that what we can analyze vis-a-vis deployment and higher end systems matters).
I don’t agree with that. If I have an opinion on what happens it isn’t the same thing as saying I could go coach the Oilers better than Woody. Or even Eakins. But I can see the results and breakdowns, what teams that beat us do that beats us, have a brain (don’t say it!) and have watched a lot of NHL hockey over a long time, so can see what isn’t working and sometimes why
I read what more knowledgeable people say about it. I read what you folks think. And an opinion forms that is valid. Mine and yours and everyone’s, even if we all don’t get it right. The discussion is awesome though because hearing all sides makes everyone more informed. Even if we don’t agree
That is actually what consultants do right? Look at things from an outside position and point out common sense mistakes that often aren’t seen internally? At least that’s what a consultant told me once
Yes, I agree with most of that but, at the same time, as much hockey as I’ve watched over the years, I can’t profess to have an informed idea in to what goes in to coaching an NHL hockey team on any sort of day to day or hour by hour basis let alone in the 40 hour between games in a playoff series.
I can see what I think look like mistakes on the ice but I would gather many (most) are execution as opposed to a bad system.
Not to mention all the “non-hockey” matters that coaches attend to include managing relationships and personalities of 23 (or more) players and a coaching staff – on a day to day and week to week and month to month basis.
True I don’t profess to know the actual breakdowns and rely on others for that information if it comes. But I don’t need to be a qualified NHL coach to know above 3 GA/G doesn’t work. And that’s on coaches and management. Their responsibility
If the players aren’t good enough fix it. Personally I don’t think it was a player issue
Qualified by Woody wouldn’t change out useless players for whatever the reason was, twice. That is a stubborn and or uncreative man. And there were options, at least this time
If that happens it means Woody’s look at everything didn’t determine the structure he chose is not going to do what is needed, and they give it another whirl, and I’ll be ropeable
The mainstream media is now composed of state/establishment approved narratives (with varying degrees of truthfulness and truthiness).. Sports does not fit the model. When sports fully becomes pro-wrestling, i.e. manufactured and approved narrative, it will be “news” that is fit to print again.
Political journalism was that way 40 years ago when I worked in the media & politics – I saw it from both sides.
The difference is that there is now an alternative mass communication system that the msm doesn’t have full control over that tells a different story – sometimes more truthful; sometimes more fanciful.