Overture, Curtains, Lights

by Lowetide

Dave Tippett’s last NHL team, the 2016-17 Arizona Coyotes, deployed 10 rookies — five of whom played over 650 minutes that season. Of those 10 rookies, how many made the opening night lineup? Three: Jakob Chychrun, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse. Chychrun and Crouse were teenagers, and Dylan Strome was, too.

Tippett can handle multiple rookies in a season, and it gives us something to talk about as we wait through summer for the hockey season. Knowing Ken Holland’s preference is too overcook (I don’t like that word) prospects in the minors, how would a strong performance by a player like Dmitri Samorukov test that position?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

CONSERVATIVE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER PROJECTION

If Holland and Tippett decide to elevate the veterans and keep the kids on the farm, opening night might look like this. NHL newcomers include some Euro influence (Nygard, Haas, Persson) some NHL free agents (Smith, Granlund, Jurco) and a drafted/developed rookie in Caleb Jones. Seven new players, but no teenagers, no entry deal bonuses and everyone should be aware of their roles and assignments.

WILD AND CRAZY OPENING NIGHT ROSTER PROJECTION

I would call this the “Chychrun” plan except that kid was good out of the box, and Samorukov may also fit in this category. Anyway, I think four rookies and Jesse Puljujarvi on the roster is about as wild and crazy as the Holland-Tippett team would go. I expect them to be more conservative, Holland wanting to start as he means to go.

BIG TRADE ROSTER

I made a massive trade with Calgary, bringing in Neal, Frolik and Stone. Lucic, Russell and Jesse Puljujarvi go the other way and maybe you’d have to sweeten it because Russell has an extra year and Lucic’s contract is more difficult than Neal’s, but for now we’ll call it even. I also signed Brassard, not thrilled with the idea but it fits with the “Holland Old Folks Home” template used in Detroit for many years. Bear over Persson because it saves $275,000 and yes it’s important.

MOST LIKELY ROSTER

Holland is trying to make a deal and I do think he’ll grab a scoring winger but it’s difficult to identify right this minute. So, I’ve assigned the job to Jurco, signed Brassard and decided the Oilers might just let this dark horse run. This is a lottery team, men. Brace yourselves.

BOB GREEN

Bob Green doesn’t need me to come to his aid, his hockey reputation was made before arriving in Edmonton. That said, I remain flummoxed by the idea Green is the chief culprit in the Griffin Reinhart trade. Here’s the deal: General managers may reach out to trusted men in the organization for input, but for crying out loud the scouting director doesn’t prepare or negotiate the trade. Green gave an endorsement to the idea of acquiring Reinhart based on his knowledge of the player. He didn’t neglect the Oilers by not flying to the east coast to see Reinhart play, he had other work to do. He no doubt spoke about Reinhart as an Oil Kings blue, that’s a helluva player.

The entire episode reminds me of Whitey Herzog’s reaction to the Jim Fregosi trade made by the Mets 50 years ago. Herzog was in charge of Mets procurement at the time, and the GM called and asked about Fregosi, a pretty good SS with power who was aging with the Angels. Herzog said he was a good player, still had something left to give. When he found out about the trade (Nolan Ryan, one of the greatest arms in the history of the game, plus a pretty good OF in Leroy Stanton and a couple of fringe pitchers), Herzog was outraged.

“I’ll never forget it,” recalled Herzog. “Bob Scheffing called and asked me to call Leroy Stanton to tell him we’d traded him to the Angels for Jim Fregosi. I thought that was the deal, not realizing we were giving them Nolan Ryan, Fransisco Estrada and Don Rose along with Stanton. I said ‘shit, I wouldn’t trade Stanton for Fregosi’. I liked Stanton! When I picked up the paper the next morning and discovered Nolan Ryan was in there too, I about threw up.” Source

Here’s a fact: If you are angry at Bob Green, believe he’s the man to blame for the Reinhart trade, you’ve lost the script. The general manager takes advice from the people around him and then makes the deal. Unless you have clear evidence, a quote I haven’t seen where Green says he stepped in, then you’ve altered real truth to fit your version of the truth. Your outrage over Bob Green doesn’t make you a better fan, it makes you a dumber person.

Lucic apparently gets his bonus today, so if something is going to happen around a trade it could occur in the coming hours. I’m a Lucic fan, so hope he lands in a good spot and will wish him well despite some tough times with the Oilers. Seems my Bruins favourites who come here are destined to struggle, although I would welcome Patrice Bergeron at any time.

Names I’ve heard include James Neal, Sam Bennett, Jason Zucker, Tyler Toffoli. The Bennett rumor had Jesse Puljujarvi attached to it. We wait.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back, baby!! At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Guests include John Horn from ESPN, WTA, TSN, we’ll chat about an instant classic at Wimbledon and what the future holds for Serena and Roger. Jason Gregor will pop in to chat about the Eskimos and the Oilers, and we’ll have a CFL guest to talk about the Alouettes weird season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. See you on the radio! OH. I’m also on the roundtable at 9 with Dustin Nielson, Lt Eric and Matt Iwanyk. It’s an all-star cast!

214 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
214 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
OriginalPouzar

Yeti: Is there a cap hit to Haas if he’s sent to the minors?

No, he’s under the fully buryable amount.

With that said, he has said publicly that he’s coming over to play in the NHL and, if he doesn’t make it, he’ll head back to Europe. He won’t accept an AHL assignment (except for a short “adjustment assignment”).

Its interesting that, to some, these unsigned free agents, all of whom have multiple warts to their games, are missed opportunities and simply better options than the Europeans singed, end stop.

That certainly could turn out to be the case but, on the other hand, are the posters here the “smartest person in the room” as possessed to the experience GM and his people who have indeed watched these Europeans play?

Lets not forget the zero risk on Hass and Nygard – short term and fully buryable – only risk is a spot on the 50.

jp

ArmchairGM: The title should read: Player’s Holland should have signed instead of unproven Europeans.

These guys could have helped to form a solid 3rd line – something Holland indicated was a priority – instead we have more Wing-and-a-Prayer type players who we *hope* can play in the NHL, and we *hope* they’ll be above replacement level.

Missed opportunities…

But Nygard, Haas and Persson are literally zero risk. They can all be sent to the minors/Europe without affecting the cap if they aren’t among the best available. They aren’t impeding other signings in any way.

ArmchairGM

Yeti: Is there a cap hit to Haas if he’s sent to the minors?

No. But he has an understanding with Holland that he won’t spend time in the minors, except for possibly a week or two.

BONE207

rickithebear: Holy crap do you ever sound like those delusional social justice warriors.
A constructive Narative can be Bull shit.

Frjohn!

Please do not try to woke me with an inaccurate unsupported constructionist narrative like all the woke social justice warriors try to do.

This is facts!

Not me trying to woke you!

PS: if I was going to woke you it would be grayling fishing in a freighter canoe down the Churchill river.

Holy Smoke…

Bear vs Padre

This exchange seems so opposite to what we’ve been hearing about abuses by the Catholic church. FrJohn taken to the woodshed accused of blasphemy & being a social justice warrior.

Then there is the FrJohn! line. Shit just got serious. The bear growls & padre is quivering in his cloak. Social justice terms being hurled about because the bear wants him to be “woke”.

The Padre, trying to prove OP’s theory that Drai is a “fixed by hitch” 200 foot player, gets accosted in a racial insult by using the wrong numbers.

This is Facts! George W Bush is alive & well.

Then the final dagger…the threat to take the good Padre down the river (Deliverance style?)
All this for threatening an endangered species with numbers.

It’s a good thing I come here for the fun.

Yeti

GMB3:
ArmchairGM,

Absolutely. Gaeten Haas feels like Lennart Petrell 2.0

Is there a cap hit to Haas if he’s sent to the minors?

GMB3

ArmchairGM,

Absolutely. Gaeten Haas feels like Lennart Petrell 2.0

ArmchairGM

Lowetide:
New for The Athletic: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?

https://theathletic.com/1075623/2019/07/16/lowetide-is-there-anyone-left-in-free-agency-who-can-help-the-oilers/

The title should read: Player’s Holland should have signed instead of unproven Europeans.

These guys could have helped to form a solid 3rd line – something Holland indicated was a priority – instead we have more Wing-and-a-Prayer type players who we *hope* can play in the NHL, and we *hope* they’ll be above replacement level.

Missed opportunities…

ArmchairGM

Buchnevich is available in NY, he’s a 6’3 left shot winger who scored 21 goals in 64 games as a 23 year old last season.

His scouting report:

“Is an electrifying offensive weapon with great skill and dangle in his game. Can shoot the puck with aplomb and beat defensemen one on one. Also boasts a projectable 6-3 frame. Needs more work on his play when he does not have the puck on his stick, as well as his defensive-zone coverage in general. Must also fill out his frame and gain more strength.

Long Range Potential: Dynamic, talented winger with upside.”

Pavel is an RFA and is reportedly seeking a bridge deal in the $3-4M range, Evolving Hockey has him at 2 x $2.875M.

NYR is looking to cut cap, would JP + a pick be enough? Or a prospect + pick?

Thoughts?

ArmchairGM

frjohnk:
rickithebear,

You are saying that Granlund, Kassian and Chiasson are all top line wingers

What numbers are you using here for these 3 guys to be in the top 62 wingers?

Lucic, Gagner, Khaira, Jurco are all in the top 124 wingers in the game?

So to recap, from your numbers we have
– two 1st lines
and
-two 2nd lines

At least now we know who Holland has been listening to!

OriginalPouzar

AndyDufresne:
Draisaitl McDavid Kassian
BensonRNH Chaisson
GranlundBrassardEriksson
NygardKhairaGagner
Marody

NurseLarsson
KlefbomBouchard
Jones Benning
RussellPersson

Koskinen / Smith

97pts
Good for 8th place in the West.

I dont’ mind it – except for the Bouchard – firstly, i don’t think he should be in the NHL yet and certainly not in the top 4.

OriginalPouzar

rickithebear: Holy crap do you ever sound like those delusional social justice warriors.
A constructive Narative can be Bull shit.

Especially the safe place Psycho’s

I am High function Autistic.
My disability is protected under the Human Rights Code.

Over the last 25 years.
Evolutionary biologic Psychological study has mapped the brain.
Identified evolutionary chemistry that drives emotions.

When Social justice warriors Say things as if they are true with out biological or evolutionary proof.
That unsupported constructionist approach is counter to my disabilities needs.
That intentionally infringes on the protection provided to me by the human rights code.

So the point.

Frjohn!

Their are three forms of structure for a team.

Power Play: advantage. Largely in opps dz.
Even: equal. Can be in any zone.
PK: disadvantage. Largely in our dz.

Each has their standard of player.
PP1 Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Chaisson, RNH; PP2
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
PK1 Khaira, Brodziak; PK2

Even play is 80% ofgame TOI and the only one all forwards will play in a game.
Even play is the only play were top 3 1st, top 6 2nd, top 9 3rd, top 12 4th. Is differentiated.

8 Evg is the starting point for being a top 6 (2nd line) goal scoring winger at even play.
That is the standard over the last 3 years.

This is one of the very fewBinary analytics resolution level analysis that is true.

Sorry buddy but spouting per60 numbers without a deep level of resolution in multivariable Analysis serves no value.

Please do not try to woke me with an inaccurate unsupported constructionist narrative like all the woke social justice warriors try to do.

High resolution analysis says valuation of a player by pts leads to overpay on most fwds who are less efficient goal production per pocession players.

This is facts!

Though Being a top GA team reduces the efficiency shock of passing over shooting.

Not me trying to woke you!

PS: if I was going to woke you it would be grayling fishing in a freighter canoe down the Churchill river.

That is quite the rant and personal attack because of a poster not-agreeing with your take on a top 6 forward.

If the data and the analysis leads to the conclusion that Chiasson/Granlund/Kassian is a legit top 6 forward group in the NHL, perhaps the methodology is flawed.

OriginalPouzar

frjohnk: Theoretically, the Leafs could just sign Marner on day 2 right?

I have no idea what the numbers look like, but the Leafs could have 22 players on the roster plus Joe Blow AHL guy who has a cap hit of $750k on the 1st day.

Then after the 1st day, maybe a few days or whatever sign Marner and demote Joe Blow.

Just have a handshake agreement behind the scenes while having a bunch of leaked rumors that have no substance to misdirect from the real plan to fit in under the cap and use the LTIR to its fullest.

Potentially, one would need to crunch the numbers but it may not work.

They currently have about $3.8M of cap space with a full 23 man roster (no Mitch).

If they went in to the season like this and put Horton on LTIR on day one, they’d only be able to go over the cap by about $2M and wouldn’t have the room to sign Marner (even with the re-assignment of one of the 23).

blainer

hunter1909: Gagner 2.0 plays like Bambi staring at headlights. His spirit’s been all but crushed as a hockey player, all he wants is the paycheck.

Gagner provides little to next to nothing except pathos to the lineup.

+1

ArmchairGM

leadfarmer: He made no commitments for after the 20-21 season.Which is all I wanted from him other than bring a Boyle Brassard or Pominville or such for one year that we could trade at the deadline for a pick.
Wasn’t excited about Smith but it’s one year and this team is not competing this year

Commitments are not a bad thing if you choose your partner carefully. Nobody was espousing a 5 year deal for a 30-something player, but 4 years for the right 27 year old at decent money would have gone a long way to improving the roster going forward. As it stands, the roster hasn’t improved 1 iota.

ArmchairGM

jeetz:
Forget the 3C idea.

McD and Drai 20-22 min/ night

GET RNH A TRUE TOP 6WINGER BY CHRISTMAS!!! (not named PJ, Benson or Yamo)

RNH plus XXX 16-17 min a night

Sign Boyle to a PTO and run a Veteran 3rdline of

Chaisson Boyle Granlund 12-14 min a night

have Lucic Khaira + one other as a 4th line 10 min a night

You have Kassian, Jurco, Nygard, JP, Gagner, Haas to fill out 4 positions…1 top winger, 1 second line winger, 1 4th line winger and the 13th fwd

Finding a true winger for RNH is critical for our success and probably to having RNH resign as an Oiler

Great plan, too bad Holland hasn’t followed it. One of Connolly or Dzingel would have gone a long way to icing a competitive 2nd line next year.

Who’s left in UFA? Pominville?

jp

frjohnk: 2.14 GF/60
3.05 GA/60
41.2%

Nothing here showing that he is driving a line.
Also a 1.76pts/60 away from McDavid

Dont get me wrong, I love Drai, I think he is a top player in the league, the issue I have is that we do not have the wingers to separate Drai and McDavid so we have two good lines.

Away from each other and we have very poor 1st and 2nd lines.

Together and they drag a guy like kassian, Chiasson up and their line can compete with trios like the Avs, Lightning and Bruins top lines.

They are incredibly special together.

Unless something rhymes with the wingers when they are apart, Im expecting to see Drai and mcDavid together for the majority of the year.

McDavid and Draisaitl were terrible without each other last season. But FWIW, McDavid at least was able to carry lines without Draisaitl the previous 2 seasons.

16-17 and 17-18 GF%
McDavid with Draisaitl: 58.5%
McDavid w/out Draisaitl: 60.9%
Draisaitl w/out McDavid: 43.1%

I’m not going to try to break down who exactly those minutes were with, but his main wingers and GF% were (everyone over 200min):
Maroon 57.9%
Draisaitl 58.5%
Lucic 60.8%
Eberle 62.5%
Puljujarvi 67.7%
Nuge 65.4%
Caggiula 51.6%

There is hope! For McDavid at least.

At that said, I do we’ll see the two play together this year for the most part.

jp

rickithebear:
8 Evg is the starting point for being a top 6 (2nd line) goal scoring winger at even play.
That is the standard over the last 3 years.

This is one of the very fewBinary analytics resolution level analysis that is true.

This has been bothering me because it isn’t actually quite true.

Combining the past 3 seasons the #186 forward scored 27 goals (12 players were tied actually). All but the last 4 of the 186 scored 28 or more. If you take actual EVG, the #186 forward scored 31. So 9-10 goals on average.

The number is generally higher if you look at a single season.

16-17 5on5 – 9, EVG – 10
17-18 5on5 – 9, EVG – 11
18-19 5on5 – 10, EVG – 12

So if one were to actually use EVG (vs 5on5), and this past season’s cutoffs, neither Gagner or Lucic has been at top 6 EVG scorer in any of the past 3 seasons.

jp

Harpers Hair:
Good grief.
No one is accounting for Sam Gagner at more than $3M on the cap.
A huge drag on team building.

Poor Sam. I hope he hangs in the top 6 and manages 40 points. (acknowledging that he will almost certainly overpaid)

Bulging Twine

rickithebear:
Bulging Twine:

Some of the many people on here, who I enjoy and respect their perspective, are still at a novice level of analysis.

Anyone listing GA As a measure for forward should be thought of as novice.

You want to know the % of pocession faced that the forwards provide a dman an opportunity to press the blue.
NZ traps and controlled zone/man to man coverage greatly reduces the success of high speed transition passing that requires dmen to collapse to the HD area.
It allows greater entry rate and corsi count.

But Dmen establish the (open HD sh save% baseline) per corsi the goalies must face.
Goalies establish a +ve/-ve Open HD save% compared to the expected.

That makes the 2D-1G structure quality of performances relative to open HD SH save% established (dmen) & performed (Goalie) per corsithat dictates GA.

That is why
– forward NZ trap & zone/ man to man transition coverage ( High entry/ corsi)
– Rover HD abandonment to 1D-1G (high open HD save% baseline)
A higher resolution analysis has seperated positional causalvalue.

So you’re saying that coaching and systems have more to do with a FW’s GA/60 rate than does the individual FW.
The differences in GA/60 rates for the NYI FW’s from 17-18 to 18-19 would agree with you!

Within a team’s FW group do you value relative GA/60 rates? What do those rates mean to you?

jp

Mr DeBakey: Well, except for Lucic, Gagner & Kassian.
Tho’ Kassian is close. Really close.

I think he means “at some point” in the last 3 years. Lucic and Gagner were 158th and 172nd in 5on5 goals in 16-17. Kassian was 142nd this season.

Jurco mystified me for a while, but he was 106th in G/60 in 17-18 (5 in 29 games – 0.86/60). I’m not sure there’s any value at all to that though as his career rate (0.49/60) is more like a 4th liner.

JimmyV1965

leadfarmer:
OriginalPouzar,

It’s amazing how many people want Holland to come in guns blazing
Cause it worked out so well for the last guy

What I would like to see the GM do is add one good player this year. It’s not a big ask. Because we’re Oiler fans, this moderate approach seems almost impossible because we’ve been conditioned by years of awful management. Again, I reserve judgement on Holland.

JimmyV1965

blainer:
I find it odd how many here have Nygard over Haas. Haas is a RT shot center and Holland has tried to sign him in the past as well. My gut tells me he makes the team ahead of Nygard.

The problem with this is.. are we really counting on these guys to improve this team and make the playoff’s?

Add to that .. F**cking Granlund.. the next version of an old Jussi Jokinen.. would much rather have that money spent on Sheehan or someone who can play decent on the PK. Holland has done zip to help this team other than not sign a dumb contract. I feel we are going to be extremely disappointed with this GM. Hopefully he proves me wrong by training camp as there are a few teams that will be looking to trade once they get their RFA’s signed but I have my doubts based on the deals he already missed out on.

IMO so far Holland has proven to be no better than Chia.This team as it stands now is a Connor McDavid injury away from finishing 31st.

If these are the best lineup’s we can come up with we will need a goaltending miracle. Odds are I won’t watch anymore than the first three losses in a row to start the season.

I will come here though for my entertainment as it will be one hell of a shit show.

And believe it or not I’m usually always optimistic on everything Oil but after this offseason I have finally lost hope in this team.

I do reserve the right though to jump back on the bandwagon should such a goaltending miracle occur !!

Ya. Looking at everyone’s lineup projections is depressing to say the least. Let’s put JP on the first line, or Khaira, or Granlund, or one of the Euros. It just doesn’t matter. None of them are legit top six forwards. I’m not expecting Holland to make this a playoff team in six months. But failing to add one good player is just that – an abject failure. However, there’s still time and there will be an unusual amount of player movement across the NHL this summer. I’ll reserve judgement for now.

Andy Dufresne

Draisaitl McDavid Kassian
Benson RNH Chaisson
Granlund Brassard Eriksson
Nygard Khaira Gagner
Marody

Nurse Larsson
Klefbom Bouchard
Jones Benning
Russell Persson

Koskinen / Smith

97pts
Good for 8th place in the West.

frjohnk

rickithebear,

You are saying that Granlund, Kassian and Chiasson are all top line wingers

rickithebear: Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
—————————————- All 4 above wingers are 1st line fwds playing with 1st line centers.

What numbers are you using here for these 3 guys to be in the top 62 wingers?

rickithebear: Lucic – Haas – Gagner
Khaira – Brodziak – Jurco
————————————— All 4 above wingers are 2 Nd line fwds playing with 2nd line centers.

Lucic, Gagner, Khaira, Jurco are all in the top 124 wingers in the game?

So to recap, from your numbers we have
– two 1st lines
and
-two 2nd lines

jp

OriginalPouzar: Oh, Neal was awful last year, almost Lucic level awful (although I don’t think he showed an ability to take a pass from the d-man at the blue line and move the puck up the ice).

With that said, yes, I think the gap is that big:

– its been one year for Neal and 3 (not 2) for Lucic. Recall his 5 on 5 P/60 were actually better in year 2 than year 1 – he’s been a replacement level offensive producer at 5 on 5 for 3 years.

– Neal’s contract is MILES better than Lucic’s – no trade protection (expansion draft risk even though I’m somewhat confident Lucic would waive) and no signing bonus structure allowing a “reasonable” buy out.

————

To be clear, I wouldn’t trade a first to do it but I think that’s the general amount of pain it would cost.

I’m still not so sure. I agree with you the Lucic drop came 3 seasons ago and he hasn’t produced at evens at any point with the Oilers.

On the surface though, he did score 50 points that year and 34 the 2nd. Neal scored 41 and 44. Overall boxcars for the 3 years are:
Lucic 243-39-65-104 -24
Neal 204-55-49-104 -26

Even if teams are looking at 5 on 5 scoring rates the gap isn’t that huge:
Lucic 1.21, 1.30, 0.97
Neal 1.47, 1.75, 0.99

Plus Lucic is a heavyweight who’s 3rd in the NHL in hits over the same span.

While I clearly prefer Neal, I’m not convinced the actual difference in value between the two is a 1st. And I’m hopeful that other valuations of Lucic might be more favourable than that.

jp

OriginalPouzar: I’m only interested in a one-year deal and I would got up to close to $3M in order to get him under contract (as opposed to PTO which doesn’t stop him from signing with any other team).

Is that way too much (keeping in mind just a one-year risk)?

Yeah maybe too much. I have no idea what he’s asking or other teams are offering, but I was thinking the price might come down to ~$2M at some point.

If you’re going to blow your whole wad in one place you want to be fairly sure about it. Otherwise you can wait for other cap casualties as Godot keeps telling us.

rickithebear

frjohnk: Draisaitl yes

The others not even close.

Holy crap do you ever sound like those delusional social justice warriors.
A constructive Narative can be Bull shit.

Especially the safe place Psycho’s

I am High function Autistic.
My disability is protected under the Human Rights Code.

Over the last 25 years.
Evolutionary biologic Psychological study has mapped the brain.
Identified evolutionary chemistry that drives emotions.

When Social justice warriors Say things as if they are true with out biological or evolutionary proof.
That unsupported constructionist approach is counter to my disabilities needs.
That intentionally infringes on the protection provided to me by the human rights code.

So the point.

Frjohn!

Their are three forms of structure for a team.

Power Play: advantage. Largely in opps dz.
Even: equal. Can be in any zone.
PK: disadvantage. Largely in our dz.

Each has their standard of player.
PP1 Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Chaisson, RNH; PP2
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
PK1 Khaira, Brodziak; PK2

Even play is 80% of game TOI and the only one all forwards will play in a game.
Even play is the only play were top 3 1st, top 6 2nd, top 9 3rd, top 12 4th. Is differentiated.

8 Evg is the starting point for being a top 6 (2nd line) goal scoring winger at even play.
That is the standard over the last 3 years.

This is one of the very few Binary analytics resolution level analysis that is true.

Sorry buddy but spouting per60 numbers without a deep level of resolution in multivariable Analysis serves no value.

Please do not try to woke me with an inaccurate unsupported constructionist narrative like all the woke social justice warriors try to do.

High resolution analysis says valuation of a player by pts leads to overpay on most fwds who are less efficient goal production per pocession players.

This is facts!

Though Being a top GA team reduces the efficiency shock of passing over shooting.

Not me trying to woke you!

PS: if I was going to woke you it would be grayling fishing in a freighter canoe down the Churchill river.

frjohnk

OriginalPouzar: – if Toronto didn’t have Horton, it would be ALOT easier to get Marner under contract without all the dispositions they have had to do – but they need to be cap compliant with Horton on day 1.

Theoretically, the Leafs could just sign Marner on day 2 right?

I have no idea what the numbers look like, but the Leafs could have 22 players on the roster plus Joe Blow AHL guy who has a cap hit of $750k on the 1st day.

Then after the 1st day, maybe a few days or whatever sign Marner and demote Joe Blow.

Just have a handshake agreement behind the scenes while having a bunch of leaked rumors that have no substance to misdirect from the real plan to fit in under the cap and use the LTIR to its fullest.

flyfish1168

Buddy:
To go back to LT’s comments about Bob Green, I’m not sure that that many people view him as the main culprit in the Reinhart trade, but they certainly do see him as one of the culprits.

Green’s problem is that he expressed his views publicly, and they summarized exactly what went wrong — nobody followed up on Reinhart (well, that plus Snow played Chiarelli like a violin). So that makes Green a target (and to a degree, rightly so, in my mind).

I’m way more disturbed by the fact that no one else took ownership of that whole fiasco. There’s no way Chiarelli cooked that one up on his own, that has the OBC’s sticky fingers all over it, but not one of them was man enough to admit to it.

It was Chiarelli’s single worst move, he never really recovered from it, and every single one of the OBC was willing to let him take all the heat for four years.

The worst part of the whole thing was watching PC sit at the table and acted the smartest man in the room.

SamGunsch

Prediction: Nygaard is going to kill it on RNH’s line.

defmn

A couple more wingers hit the trade market due to cap crunch. I expect more as the summer progresses.

//However, as Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post notes, they are looking at the trade market as well and have made wingers Vladislav Namestnikov and Pavel Buchnevich available.//

OriginalPouzar

innercitysmytty:
OriginalPouzar,

OriginalPouzar,

Thanks for the response. That all matches my understanding except the piece I don’t get is the bullet where you indicated that the off-season LTIR is more inefficient because there is nothing on Capfriendly that clearly articulates that. In what ways is it more inefficient or limiting?

If off-season LTIR is used in order to get compliant – there will be no ability to add another player to the roster in replacement of the player placed on LTIR. If Horton is placed on LTIR in the off-season get compliant, boom they’ve maxed out their LTIR relief cushion the moment he’s on LTIR and there isn’t an ability to go over the cap.

Buddy

To go back to LT’s comments about Bob Green, I’m not sure that that many people view him as the main culprit in the Reinhart trade, but they certainly do see him as one of the culprits.

Green’s problem is that he expressed his views publicly, and they summarized exactly what went wrong — nobody followed up on Reinhart (well, that plus Snow played Chiarelli like a violin). So that makes Green a target (and to a degree, rightly so, in my mind).

I’m way more disturbed by the fact that no one else took ownership of that whole fiasco. There’s no way Chiarelli cooked that one up on his own, that has the OBC’s sticky fingers all over it, but not one of them was man enough to admit to it.

It was Chiarelli’s single worst move, he never really recovered from it, and every single one of the OBC was willing to let him take all the heat for four years.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan: You’re wrong.

The most opportune time to buy out Looch was with the Sekera buyout.

That ship has unfortunately sailed.

Buyout Looch and Sekera, thank Chaser for the 22 goals, now you’ve got some ‘walking around money’ to play poker with.

Thank goodness that ship has sailed because a buyout of Lucic is a horrible idea:

2019-20: $3,625,000
2020-21: $5,625,000
2021-22: $4,125,000
2022-23: $5,625,000

Even with being replaced with an NHL minimum salary player, the buyout adds to the cap in years 2, and 4 (and 5-8).

$2.3M for this coming up season and $1.8M in 2021/22 is worth the pain in the other 6 years, really?

Mr DeBakey

rickithebear: Mcdavid C (22)12.5M
Draisaitl LW, C, RW (23) 8.5M
RNH C, LW (26) 6M
Lucic LW (31) 6M
Gagner RW (29) 3.15M
Kassian RW (28) 1.95M
——————————— above have shown 2nd line Evg scoring in last 3 yrs.

Well, except for Lucic, Gagner & Kassian.
Tho’ Kassian is close. Really close.

rickithebear

Bulging Twine:

Some of the many people on here, who I enjoy and respect their perspective, are still at a novice level of analysis.

Anyone listing GA As a measure for forward should be thought of as novice.

You want to know the % of pocession faced that the forwards provide a dman an opportunity to press the blue.
NZ traps and controlled zone/man to man coverage greatly reduces the success of high speed transition passing that requires dmen to collapse to the HD area.
It allows greater entry rate and corsi count.

But Dmen establish the (open HD sh save% baseline) per corsi the goalies must face.
Goalies establish a +ve/-ve Open HD save% compared to the expected.

That makes the 2D-1G structure quality of performances relative to open HD SH save% established (dmen) & performed (Goalie) per corsi that dictates GA.

That is why
– forward NZ trap & zone/ man to man transition coverage ( High entry/ corsi)
– Rover HD abandonment to 1D-1G (high open HD save% baseline)
A higher resolution analysis has seperated positional causal value.

Bulging Twine

The NYI improved by 23 points last season under coach Barry Trotz.

One contributing factor may be the stability of FW lines.

There were 21 lines in the NHL last season that played more than 400 minutes together.

3 of those lines belonged to the Islanders.

Did the Oilers have one of those 21 lines?
No

Of the 35 lines that played over 300 minutes together did the Oilers have any?
No

The line that played the most together was Drai – McDavid – Kass
They played 284 minutes.

Followed by Drai – McDavid – Chiasson at 247

Then Chiasson – Draisatl – Rieder at 206

which shows there were no set lines.

In other news. Corsica’s website is wonky!

frjohnk

rickithebear: Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
—————————————- All 4 above wingers are 1st line fwds

Draisaitl yes

The others not even close.

slopitch

jp: Brassard looks like a bounce back candidate for sure.

He’d averaged 50 points a season (none less than 39) in the 5 years previous to last. And even if he doesn’t bounce back his 23 points last season would have put him in the Oilers top 6.

It all depends on the price.

Brassard is 31 and was a complete drag on both Pittsburgh and Colorado. He may be a bounceback candidate but so was Spooner. I believe the Oilers should aim higher or keep their powder dry.

rickithebear

hunter1909:
What chance does Raphael Lavoie have(if any)of cracking the top line out of training camp?

Holland repeatedly states he likes his prospects to mature so they are ready for NHL.

At the draft when a reporter asked Tippett if they needed to add More coaching beyond Playfair.
Tippett thought the reporter was referring to adding players beyond what they had after the draft.
“ He stated, I am sure we will add more.

We had signed.
Mcdavid C (22)12.5M
Draisaitl LW, C, RW (23) 8.5M
RNH C, LW (26) 6M
Lucic LW (31) 6M
Gagner RW (29) 3.15M
Kassian RW (28) 1.95M
——————————— above have shown 2nd line Evg scoring in last 3 yrs.
Brodziak C (35) 1.15M
Nygard LW (26) .925M
Cave C (24) .675M

Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
xxx – RNH – xxx
Lucic – xxx – Gagner
Khaira – Brodziak – xxx
Cave – Nygaard

We have waiting in the wing to compete for 4 spots with Cave & Nygard.
Gambardella LW (25) .700M
Maroody C, RW (22) .925M
Benson LW (21) .808M
Yamamoto RW (20) .894
Mcleod C (19) .834

Holland signs 3 2nd line even goal scoring pace wingers.
Chiasson LW, RW (28) 2.15M top 40 PP goal production forward.
Granlund RW, C (26) 1.3M opportunity at 3C, 1RW, & 2RW EVTOI.
Jurco LW, RW (26) .75M

And adds a veteran European Center.
Haas C (27) .925M

Now Holland likes veterans.
Tippett stated we need to add.

Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
—————————————- All 4 above wingers are 1st line fwds playing with 1st line centers.
Lucic – Haas – Gagner
Khaira – Brodziak – Jurco
————————————— All 4 above wingers are 2 Nd line fwds playing with 2nd line centers.
Cave – Nygard

Do any of the young prospects get past the established evg scoring Holland has brought in for Tippett.

Mr DeBakey

Munny: What do you think your odds are next summer if you pressbox him for a year?

The same as they are if he plays; very, very low

frjohnk

OriginalPouzar: Sure, in a half season sample size – as per your earlier post, Drai away from McDavid over three years was close to 2.20GF/60, wasn’t it?

2.14 GF/60
3.05 GA/60
41.2%

Nothing here showing that he is driving a line.
Also a 1.76pts/60 away from McDavid

Dont get me wrong, I love Drai, I think he is a top player in the league, the issue I have is that we do not have the wingers to separate Drai and McDavid so we have two good lines.

Away from each other and we have very poor 1st and 2nd lines.

Together and they drag a guy like kassian, Chiasson up and their line can compete with trios like the Avs, Lightning and Bruins top lines.

They are incredibly special together.

Unless something rhymes with the wingers when they are apart, Im expecting to see Drai and mcDavid together for the majority of the year.

innercitysmytty

OriginalPouzar,

OriginalPouzar,

Thanks for the response. That all matches my understanding except the piece I don’t get is the bullet where you indicated that the off-season LTIR is more inefficient because there is nothing on Capfriendly that clearly articulates that. In what ways is it more inefficient or limiting?

Bulging Twine

rickithebear:
Bulging Twine:

Goal Mass isphysics.

Goal Mass ( total goals) = (shot density x shots/gm or shots/60) x total unit of time in gm or per 60.

Shooting% is density.
But fwds with superior open ( net space) High Danger ( High success by location penetration) density have a higher repeatable career shooting %.

PDO would have you believe that players who repeatedly shoot in the high danger zone ( homeplate) at a higher % (Fwds) should Regress to the the same shooting % as players who repeatedly shoot in the low danger zone ( perimeter) at a high % forwards.

That is the problem with PDO.
It does not differentiate between players. Fwds & Dmen.
It is a binary approach.

When you look at average for forwards and dmen.
Binary is anslysis is a low resolution anslysis.

Think of pictures.
Thumbnail is binary analysis.
As you increase the multivariable Analysisyou are adding a higher resolution ( pixel count to the) picture. Game analysis.

The higher the resolution the more clear ( correct) the results become.

That is why Current binary theory requires the statement.
Not enough sample size.
Repetition of more data sets may cause more example of the expected theorem.
But that is the worst case of false measure.

The deeper the resolution of Analysis.
The more unlike like-things become.

That is just something I have recognized since I was 8-14yr old.
Pre chemo I could have narrowed it down to an age & month in my life.
This is why academic analysis seemed so silly to me.

Thanks for the clear explanation.

What you say on the differences in PDO and faulty regression expectations makes sense also the higher repeatable career SH% for those who have higher HD SH% (if i got that right).
Is there a website to get individual slot or HD shots/game and SH%?
One that breaks down individual shots to location?

Ryan

godot10: You can’t put Lucic in the AHL.#NMC.

And you pressbox him because there will be 12 better forwards, you can’t sent him to the AHL, and you likely cannot trade him, and buying him out is worse salary cap wise than not buying him out.

You’re wrong.

The most opportune time to buy out Looch was with the Sekera buyout.

That ship has unfortunately sailed.

Buyout Looch and Sekera, thank Chaser for the 22 goals, now you’ve got some ‘walking around money’ to play poker with.

OriginalPouzar

frjohnk: I have not found this.

Drai without McDavid GA/60 from Jan 1st to end of year was 3.34.(43 games

Beginning of the season till Jan 1st, Drai without McDavid the GA/60 was 2.7. (39 games

Sure, in a half season sample size – as per your earlier post, Drai away from McDavid over three years was close to 2.20GF/60, wasn’t it?

OriginalPouzar

blainer: Yes I have read this point of view on many occasions andI agree with most of it. I also don’t think we need to go all out and blow shit up like trading Hall or the 16th and 33rd picks for an unproven player playing in the minors.

What I would like to see is a GM that can win a trade that makes the team better. Just because the last GM fucked things up royally doesn’t mean we should not try and make the team better without making those dumbass trades. Calgary did the opposite of what we did. Traded picks and improved their team big time. It can be done. Does that mean we sit tight and wait. I said as much in my above post that I would be okay if he waits to get the right deal before the season..I sure hope the team does notgo into the seaseon the way it is now..What I also have said in previous posts is the shame it will be to miss out on the playoff’s with CMD for yet another season.

I know lot’s of people here are patient and willing to go another year of a lottery pick.. I just don’t want that to happen again. I’m not saying do dumb shit.. What I am saying is make a good trade that works for us for a change.

After all the stupid shit that Chia did I can understand if Holland is weary of making a trade but a trade needs to happen.. Just the right one. We can have it both ways.. Trade for the right player and keep an eye on the future. I have seen other teams do this on a few occasions already this offseason..Unfortunately we weren’t one of them

My post was not intended as an endorsement of Holland’s off-season – I didn’t expect much more but I did expect another way to open up some cap space other than buying out Sekera.

My post was a retort to the position that Holland is the exact same as Chiarelli to this point.

frjohnk

hunter1909: Gagner 2.0 plays like Bambi staring at headlights. His spirit’s been all but crushed as a hockey player, all he wants is the paycheck.

Gagner provides little to next to nothing except pathos to the lineup.

Why you guys picking on Ganger?
Gangar tries hard
I happen to like Ganja

OriginalPouzar

godot: Then you have no room for Tyler Johnson if he becomes available once Point is signed.

As i said, greater chance of Brassard providing middle six or even real top 6 production unless, of course, its realistic to wait for Tyler Johnson to come available, the Oilers are able to afford the acquisition cost, the Oilers are able to afford the cap hit (even without Brassard acquired) and, of course, Johnson waives his full NTC to come to Edmonton.