Overture, Curtains, Lights

Dave Tippett’s last NHL team, the 2016-17 Arizona Coyotes, deployed 10 rookies — five of whom played over 650 minutes that season. Of those 10 rookies, how many made the opening night lineup? Three: Jakob Chychrun, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse. Chychrun and Crouse were teenagers, and Dylan Strome was, too.

Tippett can handle multiple rookies in a season, and it gives us something to talk about as we wait through summer for the hockey season. Knowing Ken Holland’s preference is too overcook (I don’t like that word) prospects in the minors, how would a strong performance by a player like Dmitri Samorukov test that position?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

CONSERVATIVE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER PROJECTION

If Holland and Tippett decide to elevate the veterans and keep the kids on the farm, opening night might look like this. NHL newcomers include some Euro influence (Nygard, Haas, Persson) some NHL free agents (Smith, Granlund, Jurco) and a drafted/developed rookie in Caleb Jones. Seven new players, but no teenagers, no entry deal bonuses and everyone should be aware of their roles and assignments.

WILD AND CRAZY OPENING NIGHT ROSTER PROJECTION

I would call this the “Chychrun” plan except that kid was good out of the box, and Samorukov may also fit in this category. Anyway, I think four rookies and Jesse Puljujarvi on the roster is about as wild and crazy as the Holland-Tippett team would go. I expect them to be more conservative, Holland wanting to start as he means to go.

BIG TRADE ROSTER

I made a massive trade with Calgary, bringing in Neal, Frolik and Stone. Lucic, Russell and Jesse Puljujarvi go the other way and maybe you’d have to sweeten it because Russell has an extra year and Lucic’s contract is more difficult than Neal’s, but for now we’ll call it even. I also signed Brassard, not thrilled with the idea but it fits with the “Holland Old Folks Home” template used in Detroit for many years. Bear over Persson because it saves $275,000 and yes it’s important.

MOST LIKELY ROSTER

Holland is trying to make a deal and I do think he’ll grab a scoring winger but it’s difficult to identify right this minute. So, I’ve assigned the job to Jurco, signed Brassard and decided the Oilers might just let this dark horse run. This is a lottery team, men. Brace yourselves.

BOB GREEN

Bob Green doesn’t need me to come to his aid, his hockey reputation was made before arriving in Edmonton. That said, I remain flummoxed by the idea Green is the chief culprit in the Griffin Reinhart trade. Here’s the deal: General managers may reach out to trusted men in the organization for input, but for crying out loud the scouting director doesn’t prepare or negotiate the trade. Green gave an endorsement to the idea of acquiring Reinhart based on his knowledge of the player. He didn’t neglect the Oilers by not flying to the east coast to see Reinhart play, he had other work to do. He no doubt spoke about Reinhart as an Oil Kings blue, that’s a helluva player.

The entire episode reminds me of Whitey Herzog’s reaction to the Jim Fregosi trade made by the Mets 50 years ago. Herzog was in charge of Mets procurement at the time, and the GM called and asked about Fregosi, a pretty good SS with power who was aging with the Angels. Herzog said he was a good player, still had something left to give. When he found out about the trade (Nolan Ryan, one of the greatest arms in the history of the game, plus a pretty good OF in Leroy Stanton and a couple of fringe pitchers), Herzog was outraged.

“I’ll never forget it,” recalled Herzog. “Bob Scheffing called and asked me to call Leroy Stanton to tell him we’d traded him to the Angels for Jim Fregosi. I thought that was the deal, not realizing we were giving them Nolan Ryan, Fransisco Estrada and Don Rose along with Stanton. I said ‘shit, I wouldn’t trade Stanton for Fregosi’. I liked Stanton! When I picked up the paper the next morning and discovered Nolan Ryan was in there too, I about threw up.” Source

Here’s a fact: If you are angry at Bob Green, believe he’s the man to blame for the Reinhart trade, you’ve lost the script. The general manager takes advice from the people around him and then makes the deal. Unless you have clear evidence, a quote I haven’t seen where Green says he stepped in, then you’ve altered real truth to fit your version of the truth. Your outrage over Bob Green doesn’t make you a better fan, it makes you a dumber person.

Lucic apparently gets his bonus today, so if something is going to happen around a trade it could occur in the coming hours. I’m a Lucic fan, so hope he lands in a good spot and will wish him well despite some tough times with the Oilers. Seems my Bruins favourites who come here are destined to struggle, although I would welcome Patrice Bergeron at any time.

Names I’ve heard include James Neal, Sam Bennett, Jason Zucker, Tyler Toffoli. The Bennett rumor had Jesse Puljujarvi attached to it. We wait.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back, baby!! At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Guests include John Horn from ESPN, WTA, TSN, we’ll chat about an instant classic at Wimbledon and what the future holds for Serena and Roger. Jason Gregor will pop in to chat about the Eskimos and the Oilers, and we’ll have a CFL guest to talk about the Alouettes weird season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. See you on the radio! OH. I’m also on the roundtable at 9 with Dustin Nielson, Lt Eric and Matt Iwanyk. It’s an all-star cast!

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214 Responses to "Overture, Curtains, Lights"

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  1. blainer says:

    hunter1909: Gagner 2.0 plays like Bambi staring at headlights. His spirit’s been all but crushed as a hockey player, all he wants is the paycheck.

    Gagner provides little to next to nothing except pathos to the lineup.

    +1

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Theoretically, the Leafs could just sign Marner on day 2 right?

    I have no idea what the numbers look like, but the Leafs could have 22 players on the roster plus Joe Blow AHL guy who has a cap hit of $750k on the 1st day.

    Then after the 1st day, maybe a few days or whatever sign Marner and demote Joe Blow.

    Just have a handshake agreement behind the scenes while having a bunch of leaked rumors that have no substance to misdirect from the real plan to fit in under the cap and use the LTIR to its fullest.

    Potentially, one would need to crunch the numbers but it may not work.

    They currently have about $3.8M of cap space with a full 23 man roster (no Mitch).

    If they went in to the season like this and put Horton on LTIR on day one, they’d only be able to go over the cap by about $2M and wouldn’t have the room to sign Marner (even with the re-assignment of one of the 23).

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: Holy crap do you ever sound like those delusional social justice warriors.
    A constructive Narative can be Bull shit.

    Especially the safe place Psycho’s

    I am High function Autistic.
    My disability is protected under the Human Rights Code.

    Over the last 25 years.
    Evolutionary biologic Psychological study has mapped the brain.
    Identified evolutionary chemistry that drives emotions.

    When Social justice warriors Say things as if they are true with out biological or evolutionary proof.
    That unsupported constructionist approach is counter to my disabilities needs.
    That intentionally infringes on the protection provided to me by the human rights code.

    So the point.

    Frjohn!

    Their are three forms of structure for a team.

    Power Play: advantage. Largely in opps dz.
    Even: equal. Can be in any zone.
    PK: disadvantage. Largely in our dz.

    Each has their standard of player.
    PP1 Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Chaisson, RNH; PP2
    1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
    PK1 Khaira, Brodziak; PK2

    Even play is 80% ofgame TOI and the only one all forwards will play in a game.
    Even play is the only play were top 3 1st, top 6 2nd, top 9 3rd, top 12 4th. Is differentiated.

    8 Evg is the starting point for being a top 6 (2nd line) goal scoring winger at even play.
    That is the standard over the last 3 years.

    This is one of the very fewBinary analytics resolution level analysis that is true.

    Sorry buddy but spouting per60 numbers without a deep level of resolution in multivariable Analysis serves no value.

    Please do not try to woke me with an inaccurate unsupported constructionist narrative like all the woke social justice warriors try to do.

    High resolution analysis says valuation of a player by pts leads to overpay on most fwds who are less efficient goal production per pocession players.

    This is facts!

    Though Being a top GA team reduces the efficiency shock of passing over shooting.

    Not me trying to woke you!

    PS: if I was going to woke you it would be grayling fishing in a freighter canoe down the Churchill river.

    That is quite the rant and personal attack because of a poster not-agreeing with your take on a top 6 forward.

    If the data and the analysis leads to the conclusion that Chiasson/Granlund/Kassian is a legit top 6 forward group in the NHL, perhaps the methodology is flawed.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne:
    Draisaitl McDavid Kassian
    BensonRNH Chaisson
    GranlundBrassardEriksson
    NygardKhairaGagner
    Marody

    NurseLarsson
    KlefbomBouchard
    Jones Benning
    RussellPersson

    Koskinen / Smith

    97pts
    Good for 8th place in the West.

    I dont’ mind it – except for the Bouchard – firstly, i don’t think he should be in the NHL yet and certainly not in the top 4.

  5. ArmchairGM says:

    frjohnk:
    rickithebear,

    You are saying that Granlund, Kassian and Chiasson are all top line wingers

    What numbers are you using here for these 3 guys to be in the top 62 wingers?

    Lucic, Gagner, Khaira, Jurco are all in the top 124 wingers in the game?

    So to recap, from your numbers we have
    – two 1st lines
    and
    -two 2nd lines

    At least now we know who Holland has been listening to!

  6. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?

    https://theathletic.com/1075623/2019/07/16/lowetide-is-there-anyone-left-in-free-agency-who-can-help-the-oilers/

  7. ArmchairGM says:

    Buchnevich is available in NY, he’s a 6’3 left shot winger who scored 21 goals in 64 games as a 23 year old last season.

    His scouting report:

    “Is an electrifying offensive weapon with great skill and dangle in his game. Can shoot the puck with aplomb and beat defensemen one on one. Also boasts a projectable 6-3 frame. Needs more work on his play when he does not have the puck on his stick, as well as his defensive-zone coverage in general. Must also fill out his frame and gain more strength.

    Long Range Potential: Dynamic, talented winger with upside.”

    Pavel is an RFA and is reportedly seeking a bridge deal in the $3-4M range, Evolving Hockey has him at 2 x $2.875M.

    NYR is looking to cut cap, would JP + a pick be enough? Or a prospect + pick?

    Thoughts?

  8. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?

    https://theathletic.com/1075623/2019/07/16/lowetide-is-there-anyone-left-in-free-agency-who-can-help-the-oilers/

    The title should read: Player’s Holland should have signed instead of unproven Europeans.

    These guys could have helped to form a solid 3rd line – something Holland indicated was a priority – instead we have more Wing-and-a-Prayer type players who we *hope* can play in the NHL, and we *hope* they’ll be above replacement level.

    Missed opportunities…

  9. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Absolutely. Gaeten Haas feels like Lennart Petrell 2.0

  10. Yeti says:

    GMB3:
    ArmchairGM,

    Absolutely. Gaeten Haas feels like Lennart Petrell 2.0

    Is there a cap hit to Haas if he’s sent to the minors?

  11. BONE207 says:

    rickithebear: Holy crap do you ever sound like those delusional social justice warriors.
    A constructive Narative can be Bull shit.

    Frjohn!

    Please do not try to woke me with an inaccurate unsupported constructionist narrative like all the woke social justice warriors try to do.

    This is facts!

    Not me trying to woke you!

    PS: if I was going to woke you it would be grayling fishing in a freighter canoe down the Churchill river.

    Holy Smoke…

    Bear vs Padre

    This exchange seems so opposite to what we’ve been hearing about abuses by the Catholic church. FrJohn taken to the woodshed accused of blasphemy & being a social justice warrior.

    Then there is the FrJohn! line. Shit just got serious. The bear growls & padre is quivering in his cloak. Social justice terms being hurled about because the bear wants him to be “woke”.

    The Padre, trying to prove OP’s theory that Drai is a “fixed by hitch” 200 foot player, gets accosted in a racial insult by using the wrong numbers.

    This is Facts! George W Bush is alive & well.

    Then the final dagger…the threat to take the good Padre down the river (Deliverance style?)
    All this for threatening an endangered species with numbers.

    It’s a good thing I come here for the fun.

  12. ArmchairGM says:

    Yeti: Is there a cap hit to Haas if he’s sent to the minors?

    No. But he has an understanding with Holland that he won’t spend time in the minors, except for possibly a week or two.

  13. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: The title should read: Player’s Holland should have signed instead of unproven Europeans.

    These guys could have helped to form a solid 3rd line – something Holland indicated was a priority – instead we have more Wing-and-a-Prayer type players who we *hope* can play in the NHL, and we *hope* they’ll be above replacement level.

    Missed opportunities…

    But Nygard, Haas and Persson are literally zero risk. They can all be sent to the minors/Europe without affecting the cap if they aren’t among the best available. They aren’t impeding other signings in any way.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: Is there a cap hit to Haas if he’s sent to the minors?

    No, he’s under the fully buryable amount.

    With that said, he has said publicly that he’s coming over to play in the NHL and, if he doesn’t make it, he’ll head back to Europe. He won’t accept an AHL assignment (except for a short “adjustment assignment”).

    Its interesting that, to some, these unsigned free agents, all of whom have multiple warts to their games, are missed opportunities and simply better options than the Europeans singed, end stop.

    That certainly could turn out to be the case but, on the other hand, are the posters here the “smartest person in the room” as possessed to the experience GM and his people who have indeed watched these Europeans play?

    Lets not forget the zero risk on Hass and Nygard – short term and fully buryable – only risk is a spot on the 50.

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