Math and the Draft, Volume 33

We know NHL teams use math as an aid in several areas, including the draft. We also know that knowledge is being honed each year and the level of sophistication has reached impressive levels. We further know that many teams were slow to adapt and some teams have been left behind. How are the Oilers doing?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • New Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • New Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • New Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

THE 2012 DRAFT

This draft year didn’t feature a strong group and by the second round every team was floundering. Still, the “successes” were Aberg and Di Giuseppe, who math recommended over Moroz and Collberg. I’m using NHL equivalencies to place everyone on a straight line.

THE 2016 DRAFT

I’ve been running this group of 10 for several years, mostly due to DeBrincat and just how obvious math was making things in 2016. Hajek is a fine prospect, but a lot of his value is defensive. Tampa Bay, generally regarded as a leading NHL team, might have been wise to trade down (similar to the Oilers situation with Phil Broberg at this year’s draft). Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of the shutdown defenseman, but to my eye grabbing that player type should wait until all of the high skill forwards are gone.

THE 2019 DRAFT

I thought the industry was heading in a math direction, but the fact Kaliyev and Brink fell outside the first round makes one wonder. Detroit drafted another defenseman with uncertain offense and Anaheim takes a prep school player (although his point total is a monster) meaning he played outside the best available leagues for his age. Edmonton did well, and looking back to 2012, appears to have elevated math in the list of priorities for second round picks.

OILERS V. LIGHTNING 2019 (NHLE)

If this is Bob Green’s final run as scouting director, and it is, I’ll say that he did a fine job getting value right through the last selection (based on math). The draft actually mirrors the Lightning (who once again did well) with Lavoie and Foote a match, and Blumel-Cajkovic a set. However, whereas we’d see Cam Abney or Kyle Bigos or Travis Ewanyk chosen (all shy of needed offense), Edmonton grabbed some talented kids after the second round. Music! Now. Keep it going with the new guy (Tyler Wright).

BROBERG V. HAJEK

One thing this little exercise brought into view for me is the limitations of NHLE when it comes to blue. Hajek’s NHLE projection suggested he would be a shutdown defenseman and that has been confirmed since draft day. Broberg’s 41 Allsvenskan games suggest shy offense but his work in the Hlinka/Gretzky and U18’s suggests something more substantial. Although it’s fair game to criticize the pick with so many offensive forwards on the board, I don’t think it’s accurate to suggest Broberg=Hajek. I think Broberg is closer to Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse offensively. We wait.

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104 Responses to "Math and the Draft, Volume 33"

  1. GMB3 says:

    Maxim Cajkovic feels like he will be the classic later round Tampa pick that ends up being great value for his draft slot.

    Hopes and prayers that Konovalov ends up in NA sooner than later, I’m looking forward to seeing his results this year

  2. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Nice right up. It’s fantastic that we only have to deal with the vagaries of development the last few drafts instead of being cut off at the pass by bone stupid decisions.

    A bit of luck with prospects would be a welcome reprieve from the Gords .

  3. OmJo says:

    I am the 2012 Oilers when it comes to math.

  4. OmJo says:

    Would it be the worst thing if Broberg turned into a fast Adam Larsson 2.0?

  5. Tbags Funhouse says:

    OmJo,

    It would be wonderful for that to come to fruition!
    I believe you’re looking at it the correct way; if Bouchard, Broberg and one of Samorukov/Jones/Bear/Lagges…etc are top 4 Dmen in the next 3-5 years then we are truly in good shape. That’s not including our current cast and what they will continue to develop into and/or whom they can be traded for.
    The defense for the Oilers seems set for 10 years, it is the next 2 that will be tough in this guy’s opinion.

    Thanks to LT for keeping us on point through the boring days of no hockey season.

  6. OmJo says:

    Tbags Funhouse:
    OmJo,

    It would be wonderful for that to come to fruition!
    I believe you’re looking at it the correct way; if Bouchard, Broberg and one of Samorukov/Jones/Bear/Lagges…etc are top 4 Dmen in the next 3-5 years then we are truly in good shape. That’s not including our current cast and what they will continue to develop into and/or whom they can be traded for.
    The defense for the Oilers seems set for 10 years, it is the next 2 that will be tough in this guy’s opinion.

    Thanks to LT for keeping us on point through the boring days of no hockey season.

    Exactly, the reinforcements on the backend are on their way.

    It’s only too bad Broberg isn’t a RHD.

    Klefbom-Broberg
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Samorukov-Larsson?

    in a few years would be a pretty solid top 6. Good balance.

  7. innercitysmytty says:

    One takeaway that I have looking at those numbers is outside of Debrincat some of the ‘math’ identified players are not tracking that well either. I definitely think math should be a huge consideration in drafting but I also imagine that the teams that have invested in analytics and have much more sophisticated models than the NHLE being used here, and some of those results may not line up exactly with this.

  8. Andy Dufresne says:

    innercitysmytty:
    One takeaway that I have looking at those numbers is outside of Debrincat some of the ‘math’ identified players are not tracking that well either. I definitely think math should be a huge consideration in drafting but I also imagine that the teams that have invested in analytics and have much more sophisticated models than the NHLE being used here, and some of those results may not line up exactly with this.

    Thats a Fact…..Jack!

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    What should be valued more – math or visual skill/speed?

    I don’t know what the math says on Broberg but I can certainly see the elite skating and the skill at 17 years of age.

    I think I put less value on NHLe than many in this community in particular when it isn’t adjusted for age but, moreso, I think it has little value when talking about European d-man playing in Europe. Even guys like OEL and I believe Karlsson has nominal box-cars as teenagers in those men leagues, didn’t they?

  10. Tbags Funhouse says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    What should be valued more – math or visual skill/speed?

    I don’t know what the math says on Broberg but I can certainly see the elite skating and the skill at 17 years of age.

    I think I put less value on NHLe than many in this community in particular when it isn’t adjusted for age but, moreso, I think it has little value when talking about European d-man playing in Europe.Even guys like OEL and I believe Karlsson has nominal box-cars as teenagers in those men leagues, didn’t they?

    I think you are explaining exactly why teams have travelling scouts vs just a math department.
    You’re damn right there’s a balance of eye vs numbers, and the great ones know that balance. Hopefully the Oilera are using their math department to figure that balance out, but seem to be progressing.

  11. John Chambers says:

    Using NHLE you could scout from a hammock in Cancun.

    LT – I would label Kailer Yamamoto as a math pick. His NHLE suggested top-6 winger.

  12. Bulging Twine says:

    Player and puck tracking data is supposed to be installed this year. It will be interesting to see what comes of it, how it affects the game and which teams capitalize on the data.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-plans-to-deploy-puck-and-player-tracking-technology-in-2019-2020/c-304218820

    We’ll be able to see distance travelled and speeds and so will we finally be able to solve the Frank Mahovalich/Leon Draisattl vs Drake Caggiula type riddle of big guys with long legs looking lazy vs little guys with short legs looking like they are fast/hustling. – longs strides vs short strides – who covers more space in the same amount of time – who is actually skating faster – who is more effective despite what it may look like

    teams will be able to see who is slowing down over time, who could benefit from more rest, who responds well to rest, should “load management” be more of a thing for some players

    here’s a good article on some possible uses of the data:
    https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2019/01/27/how-puck-and-player-tracking-data-will-transform-how-we-understand-hockey/

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – For all fans of sport this Wimbledon final is an all timer. Another marker in life. Two great champions 5th set.

    – Sport at its finest

    ALLEZ ROGER!!!!!

  14. Tbags Funhouse says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Thanks, just tuned in

  15. Shane says:

    John Chambers:
    Using NHLE you could scout from a hammock in Cancun.

    LT – I would label Kailer Yamamoto as a math pick. His NHLE suggested top-6 winger.

    Barry Fraser would have loved NHLe then!!

  16. jp says:

    With the talk of Nurse’s next contract yesterday and how he might perform with a non-Russell partner, as well generally looking at what’s best for the Oilers, here are the Oilers main D in time with each other using xGF%. xGF% captures most of the shot and scoring chance data so should be the best single proxy for all the other stuff.

    This is for the past 3 seasons combined (with Benning I used just minutes from the last 2 to remove his 3rd pairing time with Nurse in 16-17). I think the Benning sample, and any of his partners will be at a disadvantage here because it removed the best team season of the past 3. So maybe the Benning results should be bumped up a little. Also included OZ start %.

    Klefbom with:
    Larsson (2273min) 51.1xGF 49.2OZ
    Benning (577min) 53.6xGF 54.8OZ
    Russell (345min) 50.3xGF 41.7OZ

    Larsson with:
    Klefbom (2273min) 51.1xGF 49.2OZ
    Nurse (1153min) 50.5xGF 46.4OZ
    Russell (227min) 42.6xGF 40.8OZ

    Nurse with:
    Russell (1515min) 48.1xGF 46.2OZ
    Larsson (1153min) 50.5xGF 46.4OZ
    Benning (235min) 53.1xGF 50.5OZ

    Russell with:
    Nurse (1515min) 48.1xGF 46.2OZ
    Klefbom (345min) 50.3xGF 41.7OZ
    Larsson (227min) 42.6xGF 40.8OZ
    Benning (121min) 49.9xGF 63.9OZ

    Benning with:
    Klefbom (577min) 53.6xGF 54.8OZ
    Nurse (235min) 53.1xGF 50.5OZ
    Russell (121min) 49.9xGF 63.9OZ

    We can see that Benning, despite the nice results, has been sheltered based on zone starts relative to the others.

    My preference would still be to try:
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Russell-Jones/Persson

    And see if Benning can stick this time.

    The 2nd best alignment from this seems to be (assuming Benning on the 3rd pair):
    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Russell
    Jones-Benning

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: No, if they dispose of Russell they do open up more money. I was assuming Lucic and Russell stay.

    I do think they sign rather than trade Nurse. And it’s going to eat up some money.

    If the goaltending holds and they can dispose or Russell (with young D capably replacing him) then things look pretty good. If not, well it could ugly.

    I was hopefull that Russell would be moved this off-season and Sekera next off-season but, alas, Sekera was moved this off-season (via buyout, sigh).

    With that said, the plan for next off-season has to be the disposition of Russell and his replacement by one of the young prospects – either ELC or cheap second contract.

    I am hopeful for a clean disposition of Russell next off-season – its imperative for next season’s team building.

    One thing at a time though – for this season, its looking like Russell is an Oiler and hopefully Matt Benning can rise to the full season 2RD role and Russell just fills in to the top 4 for injury replacements.

    3rd pairing being some sort of combo of:

    Russel/Jones
    Lagesson/Russell
    Russell/Persson
    Jones/Russell

    Maybe even some Jones/Lagesson/Persson combo for the odd game.

  18. digger50 says:

    In reviewing the prospect depth charts posted here several times over the last few weeks, they are screaming “why didn’t you pick a high skill forward!!!”

  19. Bulging Twine says:

    How much is drafting and how much is development and will we ever know?

    If Jesse Puljujarvi was drafted by Tampa what player would he be now?
    If Brayden Point was drafted by Edmonton what player would he be now?

    Would Tampa have drafted Puljujarvi?
    Would Edmonton have drafted Brayden Point?

  20. GMB3 says:

    digger50:
    In reviewing the prospect depth charts posted here several times over the last few weeks, they are screaming “why didn’t you pick a high skill forward!!!”

    Agreed.

  21. Professor Q says:

    Bulging Twine:
    How much is drafting and how much is development and will we ever know?

    If Jesse Puljujarvi was drafted by Tampa what player would he be now?
    If Brayden Point was drafted by Edmonton what player would he be now?

    Would Tampa have drafted Puljujarvi?
    Could Edmonton recognize a Brayden Point?

    Find out in the next episode of Dragon Ball Z.

  22. GMB3 says:

    jp,

    I’ve often wondered why Klef-Russell has never really been a thing. Our best puck mover with our worst. Seems to me Klef is the most capable person to be what Sekera was to Russell in 16/17.

  23. tileguy says:

    Whoever posted this recipe, my hearty thanks, it made for a splendid breakfast.
    https://sallysbakingaddiction.com/my-favorite-cornbread/

  24. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    What should be valued more – math or visual skill/speed?

    I don’t know what the math says on Broberg but I can certainly see the elite skating and the skill at 17 years of age.

    I think I put less value on NHLe than many in this community in particular when it isn’t adjusted for age but, moreso, I think it has little value when talking about European d-man playing in Europe.Even guys like OEL and I believe Karlsson has nominal box-cars as teenagers in those men leagues, didn’t they?

    The skating is evident; skill….not so much….let’s hope we see some of that in a couple of years

  25. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    tileguy,

    You are very welcome!

    I am glad I can contribute positively to other folks’ quality of life 😀

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes: The skating is evident; skill?

    Not so much….lets hope we some of that in a couple of years

    Broberg is skilled. Watched lots of the Hlinka and he stood out as one of the best players in the tournament. And this was before he was drafted by the Oilers so I didn’t have any particular reason to pay attention. Very short sample, of course, but he was dominant. You don’t do that without skill.

  27. godot10 says:

    GMB3:
    jp,

    I’ve often wondered why Klef-Russell has never really been a thing. Our best puck mover with our worst. Seems to me Klef is the most capable person to be what Sekera was to Russell in 16/17.

    If you are paired with Russell, you have to defend much more of the time. Nurse is better at defending than Klefbom. It is a waste of Klefbom for him to spend more of his time defending.

  28. deardylan says:

    Would be fun to see the comparison how teams raise the NHLE of their players following the draft? Who draft and develops the NHLE the most?

    Is this math available?

  29. OmJo says:

    Professor Q: Find out in the next episode of Dragon Ball Z.

    Ha!

    Only the dragon balls are NHL draft lottery balls.

  30. Mr DeBakey says:

    Shane: NHLe

    NHLE is a bit clunky.
    How does this look
    “Benson’s 20-year-old Fraser is the best the Oilers have seen since Gawd was a pup.”

  31. Victoria Oil says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – For all fans of sport this Wimbledon final is an all timer. Another marker in life. Two great champions 5th set.

    – Sport at its finest

    ALLEZ ROGER!!!!!

    Absolutely an epic match! It has to rank as one of the best all-time.

    I wonder if there was any non-Serbs pulling for Djokovic? Federer is one of the classiest athletes out there.

  32. Victoria Oil says:

    OmJo:
    Would it be the worst thing if Broberg turned into a fast Adam Larsson 2.0?

    That would be an excellent result, but I don’t think that Broberg will ever be as physical/nasty as Larsson.

  33. GMB3 says:

    godot10: If you are paired with Russell, you have to defend much more of the time.Nurse is better at defending than Klefbom.It is a waste of Klefbom for him to spend more of his time defending.

    Nurse being good at defending doesn’t fit the eyetest or the numbers.

    He leaves the back door so wide open even Asa Akira is impressed

  34. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?

    https://theathletic.com/1076086/2019/07/14/will-the-2019-20-bakersfield-condors-be-the-oilers-best-minor-league-team-ever/

  35. GMB3 says:

    Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes: The skating is evident; skill….not so much….let’s hope we see some of that in a couple of years

    Ive watched quite a bit of tape on him that I could find. He’s very north south, not great hands. Skate into the zone and let it rip. Probably a slightly more talented version of Nurse

  36. pts2pndr says:

    digger50:
    In reviewing the prospect depth charts posted here several times over the last few weeks, they are screaming “why didn’t you pick a high skill forward!!!”

    Because the best player available was a not yet turned 18 year old defensemen with elite skating.

  37. VanIsleOil says:

    GMB3,

    haha…….

  38. pts2pndr says:

    GMB3: Nurse being good at defending doesn’t fit the eyetest or the numbers.

    He leaves the back door so wide open even Asa Akira is impressed

    He ends up covering for his D partner doing the fish. I find it quite amusing that Nurse is held in higher regard by people recruiting for the world cup than many posters on this site.

  39. GMB3 says:

    pts2pndr,

    He definitely wasn’t on the World Cup team.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: Exactly, the reinforcements on the backend are on their way.

    It’s only too bad Broberg isn’t a RHD.

    Klefbom-Broberg
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Samorukov-Larsson?

    in a few years would be a pretty solid top 6. Good balance.

    I’m not even sure its too bad that Broberg isn’t a right shot D – who knows what the team needs will be in 3-4 years when Broberg is ready to impact the NHL roster? I mean, for all we know, Phil Kemp or Fillip Berglund is the d-man that “pops” and Samorukov never progresses?

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger:
    In reviewing the prospect depth charts posted here several times over the last few weeks, they are screaming “why didn’t you pick a high skill forward!!!”

    because management identified a high skill d-man as the best player available?

  42. digger50 says:

    pts2pndr: Because the best player available was a not yet turned 18 year old defensemen with elite skating.

    Okay Ken

  43. Bulging Twine says:

    OmJo:
    Would it be the worst thing if Broberg turned into a fast Adam Larsson 2.0?

    interestingly in his video i noticed Broberg has the Larsson wall pin in his game. They’re from the same town i believe. Maybe there is a defensive coach there that teaches that. it’s a very effective play. Freezes the other player and gains possession of the puck.

  44. Bulging Twine says:

    deardylan:
    Would be fun to see the comparison how teams raise the NHLE of their players following the draft? Who draft and develops the NHLE the most?

    Is this math available?

    that would be an interesting exercise

  45. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: because management identified a high skill d-man as the best player available?

    They sure did

    Doesn’t change the fact that the prospect depth is screaming for a high end forward.

  46. Bulging Twine says:

    Holland is going to bring in his boy Vanek on a PTO isn’t he?

  47. Bulging Twine says:

    Who’s going to be the better pro, Bouchard or Dobson?

    I wonder who Holland liked better that draft (he chose Zadina earlier)?
    Bouchard went #10, Dobson #12

    Dobson has had 2 straight very good memorial cup runs. Bouchard struggling at the world jrs but showing instant offence at the next level (AHL) in a short sample size. Playoffs mind you, which is closer to NHL level action.

    By most accounts Dobson is the better skater and defender while Bouchard has more offence.

  48. Lowetide says:

    digger50: They sure did

    Doesn’t change the fact that the prospect depth is screaming for a high end forward.

    Lavoie was a fine selection. I think the Oilers did well, although it was a helluva risk waiting to No. 38.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger48: They sure did

    Doesn’t change the fact that the prospect depth is screaming for a high end forward.

    and the general school of thought is that a team shouldn’t draft for need in the 1st round, in particular in the top 10 – of course, not everyone subscribes to that theory and its just a theory so not necessarily “right” – I would say “generally accepted though”.

    As of now, they received great value with the forward taken in round 2 – very easily could have gone anywhere in the back-half of the first round. I believe the GM figured out that there was going to be a run on d-man in the first round and a solid, solid group of forwards were going to slip and be there at 38. Yes, Zeegras is a “better prospect” although Lavoie could turn out to be darn close to as valuable.

    Time will tell and, of course, we simply don’t know what things will look like when any of those players start to play in the NHL. For all we know Maksimov has “popped” and scoring 30 with his shot and the great puck distributors. For all we know, Samorukov pops and Nurse is traded for 70 point winger because he’s covered for.

  50. Jaxon says:

    I don’t think Foote and Lavoie are all that comparable. Lavoie’s 5v5 2.69 primary points / 60 is 64% more than Foote’s 1.64 and Foote has serious slow boots issues which is so strange for a TBL pick. I really didn’t understand that pick for them.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    BulgingTwine:
    Holland is going to bring in his boy Vanek on a PTO isn’t he?

    I think there will be quite a few PTOs as camp approaches – not just the Oilers but around the league.

    Sure, why not? See how he looks. Bring Brassard and Sheehan and Lidberg with him on PTOs

  52. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think there will be quite a few PTOs as camp approaches – not just the Oilers but around the league.

    Sure, why not?See how he looks.Bring Brassard and Sheehan and Lidberg with him on PTOs

    Would love to give Lindberg a shot. I’m surprised he isn’t signed.

    Oilers should be a prime destination for PTO FW’s considering all the premier spots up for grabs and because of Chiasson’s success on a PTO last year.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    BulgingTwine:
    Who’s going to be the better pro, Bouchard or Dobson?

    I wonder who Holland liked better that draft (he chose Zadina earlier)?
    Bouchard went #10, Dobson #12

    Dobson has had 2 straight very good memorial cup runs.Bouchard struggling at the world jrs but showing instant offence at the next level (AHL) in a short sample size.Playoffs mind you, which is closer to NHL level action.

    By most accounts Dobson is the better skater and defender while Bouchard has more offence.

    I don’t think there was a “wrong choice” between the two, however, given the Oilers needs (and for how long they’ve had the hole), an argument can be made that Bouchard was a slam-dunk easy choice.

    It will be a long time before this “debate” is settled I would presume.

    Yes, Dobson clearly skates better but there are many things that Bouchard does better – getting pucks through to the net, etc. – he has an “it factor” on that blue line in the offensive zone game – just something that works – obviously in junior but he showed it during the small sheltered sample in the AHL.

    Dobson starred in the Memorial Cup. Then again, Bouchard was OHL d-man of the year.

    Dobson’s season split is awesome to see:

    – with the terrible Acadie – 16P in 28 games and -30 in those games

    – with Rouyn-Noranda – 36P in 28 games and a +40

    Wild!

  54. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think there was a “wrong choice” between the two, however, given the Oilers needs (and for how long they’ve had the hole), an argument can be made that Bouchard was a slam-dunk easy choice.

    It will be a long time before this “debate” is settled I would presume.

    Yes, Dobson clearly skates better but there are many things that Bouchard does better – getting pucks through to the net, etc. – he has an “it factor” on that blue line in the offensive zone game – just something that works – obviously in junior but he showed it during the small sheltered sample in the AHL.

    Dobson starred in the Memorial Cup.Then again, Bouchard was OHL d-man of the year.

    Dobson’s season split is awesome to see:

    – with the terrible Acadie – 16P in 28 games and -30 in those games

    – with Rouyn-Noranda – 36P in 28 games and a +40

    Wild!

    Bouchard is INCREDIBLE at getting shots through from the point. I think that he has some Jedi powers there. Often it’s not a hard shot, it’s a wrister that saunters it’s way calmly to the net.

    Interesting, I didn’t know Bouchard was the OHL Dman of the year. That’s great.
    And with Samurokov having the great second half – Howson thinks he may have been the best player in the O in the second half – that’s two promising building blocks on the back end.

  55. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think there was a “wrong choice” between the two, however, given the Oilers needs (and for how long they’ve had the hole), an argument can be made that Bouchard was a slam-dunk easy choice.

    It will be a long time before this “debate” is settled I would presume.

    Yes, Dobson clearly skates better but there are many things that Bouchard does better – getting pucks through to the net, etc. – he has an “it factor” on that blue line in the offensive zone game – just something that works – obviously in junior but he showed it during the small sheltered sample in the AHL.

    Dobson starred in the Memorial Cup.Then again, Bouchard was OHL d-man of the year.

    Dobson’s season split is awesome to see:

    – with the terrible Acadie – 16P in 28 games and -30 in those games

    – with Rouyn-Noranda – 36P in 28 games and a +40

    Wild!

    Agreed. BPA is a good theory in the first round but trading for certain positions has become so difficult since the cap was introduced I think a small bias goes to selection for need in certain cases. I think Bouchard over Dobson is clearly one of those situations.

    I am an old Blackhawks fan from my childhood. Chicago used to dominate the all-star selections for a number of years in the early ’60’s. Hull, Makita, Pilote, Hall, Vasko and Kenny Wharram. Only won one Cup in spite of all that high end talent. I think that is where I get my prejudice for preferring balanced teams rather than looking at players as individuals and assessing them that way. The GM has to find the pieces that are more than the sum of their parts – or at least that is what I think makes a good GM. 😉

  56. Bulging Twine says:

    Was using player comparison tool on Natural Stat trick and Jason Pominville is a guy who compares favourably last season over Vanek. He’s 36 though. But for a team desperate for FW with some offence…..?

    1.08 G/60
    2.01 P/60
    1.58 P1/60

  57. Bulging Twine says:

    defmn: Agreed. BPA is a good theory in the first round but trading for certain positions has become so difficult since the cap was introduced I think a small bias goes to selection for need in certain cases. I think Bouchard over Dobson is clearly one of those situations.

    I am an old Blackhawks fan from my childhood. Chicago used to dominate the all-star selections for a number of years in the early ’60’s. Hull, Makita, Pilote, Hall, Vasko and Kenny Wharam. Only won one Cup in spite of all that high end talent. I think that is where I get my prejudice for preferring balanced teams rather than looking at players as individuals and assessing them that way. The GM has to find the pieces that are more than the sum of their parts – or at least that is what I think makes a good GM.

    I get what you’re saying. I have to share a great quote from your GM, Stan Bowman at the draft in response to the question, “Do you draft for need or best player available”?

    We need the best player available.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    BulgingTwine: Bouchard is INCREDIBLE at getting shots through to from the point.I think that he has some Jedi powers there.Often it’s not a hard shot, it’s a wrister that saunters it’s way calmly to the net.

    Interesting, I didn’t know Bouchard was the OHL Dman of the year.That’s great.
    And with Samurokov having the great second half – Howson thinks he may have been the best player in the O in the second half – that’s two promising building blocks on the back end.

    Samorukov’s overall skillset is tantalizing.

    Of course, at this point, Bouchard is closer to the NHL and the more “can’t miss prospect” but I do think that, as far as overall potential goes, Samorukov has a higher ceiling. No, maybe he doesn’t have a higher point production ceiling but with his skating and his plus defending, I think he’s got “all the tools”. Lets not forget, he was drafted as more of a defensive d-man than an offensive or even a two way guy. He’s also very aggressive and physical. His ability to defend the blue line off the rush at the junior level is off the charts from what I’ve seen – he’ll need to pick his spots better at the pro level but I think he’s smart enough to learn.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    BulgingTwine:
    Was using player comparison tool on Natural Stat trick and Jason Pominville is a guy who compares favourably last season over Vanek.He’s 36 though.But for a team desperate for FW with some offence…..?

    1.08 G/60
    2.01 P/60
    1.58 P1/60

    Sounds like a perfect PTO candidate.

  60. pts2pndr says:

    innercitysmytty:
    One takeaway that I have looking at those numbers is outside of Debrincat some of the ‘math’ identified players are not tracking that well either. I definitely think math should be a huge consideration in drafting but I also imagine that the teams that have invested in analytics and have much more sophisticated models than the NHLE being used here, and some of those results may not line up exactly with this.

    Part of the reason Debrincat went as late as he did given the math was the knock in the scouting reports that his skating was only average. Reality is he was always being seen with McDavid where when compared with McDavid everyone is average.

  61. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Samorukov’s overall skillset is tantalizing.

    Of course, at this point, Bouchard is closer to the NHL and the more “can’t miss prospect” but I do think that, as far as overall potential goes, Samorukov has a higher ceiling.No, maybe he doesn’t have a higher point production ceiling but with his skating and his plus defending, I think he’s got “all the tools”. Lets not forget, he was drafted as more of a defensive d-man than an offensive or even a two way guy.He’s also very aggressive and physical.His ability to defend the blue line off the rush at the junior level is off the charts from what I’ve seen – he’ll need to pick his spots better at the pro level but I think he’s smart enough to learn.

    Samorukov has just the right amount of nasty which combines nicely with the rest of the package.

  62. pts2pndr says:

    defmn: Agreed. BPA is a good theory in the first round but trading for certain positions has become so difficult since the cap was introduced I think a small bias goes to selection for need in certain cases. I think Bouchard over Dobson is clearly one of those situations.

    I am an old Blackhawks fan from my childhood. Chicago used to dominate the all-star selections for a number of years in the early ’60’s. Hull, Makita, Pilote, Hall, Vasko and Kenny Wharam. Only won one Cup in spite of all that high end talent. I think that is where I get my prejudice for preferring balanced teams rather than looking at players as individuals and assessing them that way. The GM has to find the pieces that are more than the sum of their parts – or at least that is what I think makes a good GM.

    This is a very valid observation in my opinion. For most of the All Star versus Cup Champions the Cup Champions won.

  63. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar: Samorukov’s overall skillset is tantalizing.

    Of course, at this point, Bouchard is closer to the NHL and the more “can’t miss prospect” but I do think that, as far as overall potential goes, Samorukov has a higher ceiling.No, maybe he doesn’t have a higher point production ceiling but with his skating and his plus defending, I think he’s got “all the tools”. Lets not forget, he was drafted as more of a defensive d-man than an offensive or even a two way guy.He’s also very aggressive and physical.His ability to defend the blue line off the rush at the junior level is off the charts from what I’ve seen – he’ll need to pick his spots better at the pro level but I think he’s smart enough to learn.

    I agree, Samurokov looked like a beast out there in the second half.

    One thing that was concerning to me were the reports that he made many bad reads in the DZone. Did you hear that? It may have been TheOilKnight, apologies to the awesome OilKnight if it wasn’t him. Anyways, that is totally something that can be taught and learned no problem.

  64. defmn says:

    Bulging Twine: I get what you’re saying.I have to share a great quote from your GM, Stan Bowman at the draftin response to the question, “Do you draft for need or best player available”?

    We need the best player available.

    Thirty other GM’s would say the same thing. Who wants their first round draft pick to think he wasn’t the best player available? 😉

  65. rickithebear says:

    LT:
    Was you saying NHLE has no value when it comes to Dmen cause you realize offence driven by Dmen ( rovering) is a huge -ve goal diff affect on teams.

    Or
    that it is poor measure of off value for European dmen.
    Witch you have indirectly pointed out since Desjardins first presented the concept.
    One of the first things we agreed about.

  66. defmn says:

    Any interest?

    //There’s been no shortage of turnover in Chicago this summer, with the team acquiring Olli Maatta, Calvin de Haan, Andrew Shaw, and Alexander Nylander, signing Robin Lehner, and drafting Kirby Dach, while watching Dominik Kahun, John Hayden, Gustav Forsling, Marcus Kruger, and Henri Jokiharju depart. Yet, the re-shaping of the roster may not be done yet. Blackhawks insider Jay Zawaski of the Madhouse Chicago Hockey Podcast reports that the team is actively shopping young forward Brendan Perlini.//

  67. pts2pndr says:

    digger50: They sure did

    Doesn’t change the fact that the prospect depth is screaming for a high end forward.

    We are still back to you build from the back end. D wins championships. Before you reply, the goal tender is a big part of the defence.

  68. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Lavoie was a fine selection. I think the Oilers did well, although it was a helluva risk waiting to No. 38.

    Not really. They probably would have just taken Leason, or one of the guys you liked. Fagemo, Hoglander, As long as Lavoie and Leason were on the board, they probably didn’t feel they had to move.

  69. pts2pndr says:

    rickithebear:
    LT:
    Was you saying NHLE has no value when it comes toDmen cause you realize offence driven by Dmen ( rovering) is a huge -ve goal diff affect on teams.

    Or
    that it is poor measure of off value for European dmen.
    Witch you have indirectly pointed out since Desjardins first presented the concept.
    One of the first things we agreed about.

    No Mr bear what he is saying is hockey is a team game. In the new NHL both offence and defence are interdependent. The best teams are composed of 5 members both offensively and defensively. The days of old will not win you a championship. Good teams are composed of three lines of five men units.
    It actually puts the T back in team.

  70. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Not really.They probably would have just taken Leason, or one of the guys you liked.Fagemo, Hoglander, As long as Lavoie and Leason were on the board, they probably didn’t feel they had to move.

    I had Lavoie 26, Leason 35. Never thought Lavoie would go outside the first round.

  71. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    LT:
    Was you saying NHLE has no value when it comes toDmen cause you realize offence driven by Dmen ( rovering) is a huge -ve goal diff affect on teams.

    Or
    that it is poor measure of off value for European dmen.
    Witch you have indirectly pointed out since Desjardins first presented the concept.
    One of the first things we agreed about.

    The second item. Especially Sweden, for some reason.

  72. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Samorukov’s overall skillset is tantalizing.

    Of course, at this point, Bouchard is closer to the NHL and the more “can’t miss prospect” but I do think that, as far as overall potential goes, Samorukov has a higher ceiling.No, maybe he doesn’t have a higher point production ceiling but with his skating and his plus defending, I think he’s got “all the tools”. Lets not forget, he was drafted as more of a defensive d-man than an offensive or even a two way guy.He’s also very aggressive and physical.His ability to defend the blue line off the rush at the junior level is off the charts from what I’ve seen – he’ll need to pick his spots better at the pro level but I think he’s smart enough to learn.

    Samourukov might be closer to the NHL. The ability to defend is what gets you to the NHL. The reason Bouchard slid is because the things he has to work on, defending and retrievals, have to be learned in the AHL if one is below average on them.

    Being a power play specialist might get one too the NHL too, but then one is building in a low ceiling for Bouchard. Do you want him to be Pieterangelo or do you want him to be Shattenkirk or Yandle?

    Does he want to be Pieterangelo or does he want to be Shattenkirk?

  73. rickithebear says:

    Bulgin:

    “Samokurov was a beast”
    “ One concern is reads in def zone”

    Guess what the primary role of a Dman is?
    Holland, Tipett, Playfair talked about it a lot.
    Saying you ensure that responsibility before you cheat by moving forward.

    Defence!

    The new mgmt & coaching has already indicated thier is teaching needed in regards to that.

    So a weak Dzone read defenceman is not a beast.

    Holland will tell you that.
    He already has said dmen are usually NHL ready when they are 23-24.

    Klefbom (25), Nurse (24), Jones (22), Bear (22), Samakourov, (20), Bouchard (19)
    We need to reduce our GA to less than 220 which is 40-50 less ga than our last 2 seasons.
    None of these dmen have helped us with that the last 2 seasons.

    Dmen with strong EVGA history to their side.
    I differentiate by side.
    You cannot blame a dman for his partner not being in their spot in a championship winning 2-1 goal against structure.
    Russell (32)
    Larsson (26)
    Benning (25)

    Laggesson is our best Dzone prospect since Matt Greene a top 60 HD dman in 05-06 with the oilers.
    Who won 2 Stanley cups with a 6 deep top60 HD dman LAK team.

    Holland
    Defence first.
    It is OK to Cheat forward only if there is no chance you will not be back for your responsibility.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    BulgingTwine: I agree, Samurokov looked like a beast out there in the second half.

    One thing that was concerning to me were the reports that he made many bad reads in the DZone.Did you hear that?It may have been TheOilKnight, apologies to the awesome OilKnight if it wasn’t him.Anyways, that is totally something that can be taught and learned no problem.

    Yes, I think I have read those reports, and it may have been from SPR, a crazy good resource for the Oilers OHL prospects (and anything London Knights) – I think that may have been from his draft plus 1 season and those decision issues weren’t as evident in draft plus two. Of course, decision making is something that comes with experience and development. Next we’ll see how he does at the pro level – as I alluded to above, I think he will have some issues being overly aggressive defending the blue line and we’ll see how he learns.

  75. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think there was a “wrong choice” between the two, however, given the Oilers needs (and for how long they’ve had the hole), an argument can be made that Bouchard was a slam-dunk easy choice.

    It will be a long time before this “debate” is settled I would presume.

    Yes, Dobson clearly skates better but there are many things that Bouchard does better – getting pucks through to the net, etc. – he has an “it factor” on that blue line in the offensive zone game – just something that works – obviously in junior but he showed it during the small sheltered sample in the AHL.

    Dobson starred in the Memorial Cup.Then again, Bouchard was OHL d-man of the year.

    Dobson’s season split is awesome to see:

    – with the terrible Acadie – 16P in 28 games and -30 in those games

    – with Rouyn-Noranda – 36P in 28 games and a +40

    Wild!

    Didn’t you just post a comment saying it’s a generally accepted fact you shouldn’t draft for need then state how Bouchard was picked to feel a need?

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Not really.They probably would have just taken Leason, or one of the guys you liked.Fagemo, Hoglander, As long as Lavoie and Leason were on the board, they probably didn’t feel they had to move.

    I think Holland read the draft very well – saw/anticipated the surprising run on d-men in the first round and there being some “1st round talent” forwards being available at 38.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:
    LT:
    Was you saying NHLE has no value when it comes toDmen cause you realize offence driven by Dmen ( rovering) is a huge -ve goal diff affect on teams.

    Or
    that it is poor measure of off value for European dmen.
    Witch you have indirectly pointed out since Desjardins first presented the concept.
    One of the first things we agreed about.

    What is your projection for Quinn Hughes?

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:

    Laggesson is our best Dzone prospect since Matt Greene a top 60 HD dman in 05-06 with the oilers.
    Who won 2 Stanley cups with a 6 deep top60 HD dmanLAK team.

    Lagesson is indeed a stud defensive prospect, in my mind – this is because, in addition to being a plus defender, he can skate and move the puck out of the zone with efficiency – something Russell can’t do and Greene couldn’t do (and Larsson struggles at) – we’ll see if that translates to the NHL level.

    Greene was on the 2014 SC winning team – he was 7th in TOI/G even though he was second in GA/60. He dropped to 8th in TOI/G in the playoffs.

    Seems that, even though he was one of the best GA d-men, the coach didn’t play him much.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: Didn’t you just post a comment saying it’s a generally accepted fact you shouldn’t draft for need then state how Bouchard was picked to feel a need?

    I didn’t say Bouchard was picked to fill a need in isolation – there was generally not much to choose between these two d-man as far as BPA – generally ranked right near one other – one ahead on some reputable lists while the other ahead on other reputable lists.

    I’m not privy to the Oilers lists of the past but my guess is they also had these two right beside each other as far as BPA. Bouchard actually was drafted after his “consensus ranking” – likely BPA and filled a need.

    I do enjoy how it seems one of your daily tasks relates to trying to find mistakes or inconsistencies in my posting – no bother, I like it.

  80. Bulging Twine says:

    defmn: Thirty other GM’s would say the same thing. Who wants their first round draft pick to think he wasn’t the best player available?

    Yes, if he had said, we’ll take the BPA, and that’s a good reason to say that that you give, but this question is asked so many times and some will say, well we’d like to get a forward or we have lot’s of FW prospects, we’d like to get a D. Or if you are the Oilers you tell the world exactly who it is you are taking!

    What I liked about what Bowman said was that he shut down the age old question by enveloping one into the other.

    In all my years following NFL and NHL drafts I have never heard anyone say what he said.

  81. Bulging Twine says:

    rickithebear:
    Bulgin:

    “Samokurov was a beast”
    “ One concern is reads in def zone”

    Guess what the primary role of a Dman is?
    Holland, Tipett, Playfair talked about it a lot.
    Saying you ensure that responsibility before you cheat by moving forward.

    Defence!

    The new mgmt & coaching has already indicated thier is teaching needed in regards to that.

    So a weakDzone read defenceman is not a beast.

    Holland will tell you that.
    He already has said dmen are usually NHL ready when they are 23-24.

    Klefbom (25), Nurse (24), Jones (22), Bear (22), Samakourov, (20), Bouchard (19)
    We need to reduce our GA to less than 220 which is 40-50 less ga than our last 2 seasons.
    None of these dmen have helped us with that the last 2 seasons.

    Dmen with strong EVGA history to their side.
    I differentiate by side.
    You cannot blame a dman for his partner not being in their spot in a championship winning 2-1 goal against structure.
    Russell (32)
    Larsson (26)
    Benning (25)

    Laggesson is our best Dzone prospect since Matt Greene a top 60 HD dman in 05-06 with the oilers.
    Who won 2 Stanley cups with a 6 deep top60 HD dmanLAK team.

    Holland
    Defence first.
    It is OK to Cheat forward only if there is no chance you will not be back for your responsibility.

    For accuracy, “he LOOKED like a beast” and “there were REPORTS that he made bad reads”. I didn’t see the bad reads.
    But reads can be taught and learned. Not all learn them though.

    Shattenkirk in the playoffs = problems

    Teams with lower GA usually do best, especially in the playoffs.

  82. defmn says:

    Bulging Twine: Yes, if he had said, we’ll take the BPA, and that’s a good reason to say that that you give, but this question is asked so many times and some will say, well we’d like to get a forward or we have lot’s of FW prospects, we’d like to get a D.Or if you are the Oilers you tell the world exactly who it is you are taking!

    What I liked about what Bowman said was that he shut down the age old question by enveloping one into the other.

    In all my years following NFL and NHL drafts I have never heard anyone say what he said.

    Oh. That surprises me. I thought all GM’s always claimed to take the BPA even if they were obviously picking for need.

    I’ll have to listen more carefully.

  83. rickithebear says:

    pts2pndr: No Mr bear what he is saying is hockey is a team game. In the new NHL both offence and defence are interdependent.The best teams are composed of 5 members both offensively and defensively. The days of old will not win you a championship. Good teams are composed of three lines of five men units.
    It actually putsthe T back in team.

    What a beautiful constructive narative.
    Beautiful prose.
    A word smithing of quality.

    But I do not want Literature.
    I want observed play with facts in a math based aproach.

    We can all agree all corsi that are
    Blocked
    Misses
    Directly Hit goalie ( Closed shot)
    Have 0% chance of going in the net.

    Only those that directly hit open space in net from
    opposition corsi yeild Goals against.

    The ones that hit open space in net from
    Our Own teams deflections ( forward, dmen, goalie)
    Yeilsvown goals.

    I want real Zone spatial analysis.

    Use you brain and observe the HD areas sq. Footage.
    A real good lesson would be Pit 2 cup runs.

    The 2D-1G structure occupies the HD area at even and PK.

    At even Pittsburgh forwards collapsed down to the edge of HD area.

    On the PK the forwards vary the aproach to how they follow the puck.

    I will not deny the emergence of a high % of orgs moving to a 5 man unit attacking at even.

    But as I have observed and multiple cup winning GM Holland has stated.
    The dmen do not attack if it creates a threat to our goal.

    What I can say is many teams are running a more aggressive 3-1-1-1 approach in the current NHL.
    Years ago it was less than half the league.
    Those 3-1-1-1 teams did not make the playoffs.

    Now with the volume of teams running 3-1-1-1 structure some of them have to make the playoffs.
    So that looks like success.

    Here is the truth.
    I looked back on the last 10 seasons.
    36 of the 40 final 4 teams are strong 3-2-1 structured teams.

    Yes their are a lot more 3-1-1-1 structure teams.
    However 90% of the teams competing in a championship series are 3-2-1 structure heavy teams.

    That is why you saw STL one of the cup core roster theory teams who ran a heavy 3-2-1 structure were so GA dominate in their wins during the cup run.

    Cannot remember if it was the final series they were .75 ga.
    They were not above 2.0 ga in any of the 4 series 4 wins.

    Just because a bunch of stupid GM,s are copying an approach does not make it smart.

    This won is going to the notes.
    Might be a nice chapter.
    Stupid thing GM’s do.

  84. Bulging Twine says:

    defmn: Oh. That surprises me. I thought all GM’s always claimed to take the BPA even if they were obviously picking for need.

    I’ll have to listen more carefully.

    Yes, probably after the draft they do

    I referring to stuff said before the draft.

    The NHL is funny.
    Jim Benning is a guy who’s been open about their intentions the last few drafts.
    Holland while in Detroit in ’18 said before the draft that they’d like to get a D as they have lot’s of FW prospects. Then after the draft, after they took the FW Zadina, he said, well, we were looking for D but when Zadina fell to us we couldn’t pass him up. Zadina was rated higher than where he went by most accounts.
    and others

    it’s nothing like the NFL though where there is misdirection and secrecy and lot’s of resources poured into getting intel on who the others teams like.

  85. rickithebear says:

    One of the lessons I teach my kids is just because every one is doing it does not make it correct.
    I have tried to get them to know that by age 5-8.

    This just taught me I need to point this out to many on this blog.
    An approach you expect your kids to understand by grade 3.

    Funnily it parrallels what my wife’s Journslism Univ. & Sun Media sports department taught here.
    Write as though you are talking to people with grade 3 level of thinking.

    Say this to yourselves!

    Many teams are running a 3–1-1-1 heavy system, so some have to make the playoffs.
    Just because many orgs do it does not make it correct.
    90% of the teams competing in a championship series are high rate 3-2-1 structure teams.

  86. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not even sure its too bad that Broberg isn’t a right shot D – who knows what the team needs will be in 3-4 years when Broberg is ready to impact the NHL roster?I mean, for all we know, Phil Kemp or Fillip Berglund is the d-man that “pops” and Samorukov never progresses?

    My money is on Kemp to emerge in 2-3 years as a legit NHL Dman, likely 3rd pairing, but possibly 2nd pairing. Be nice if both he and Marino sign, I consider Marino to be a less offensive/more defensive Petry.

    Kemp is more like Larsson, but with possibly better boots.

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Holland said why he took Bro. A D with skill with that’s size and an incredible skater is really hard to get. There were no sure bet forwards last Hughes and Kakko. So if you’re going to bet pick a unicorn over a horse.

    He then took a big right shot C, another type he has said he covets even if Lavoie ends up a winger, he still may be able to take weak side faceoffs and should have a clue defensively being a centre.

    Every player out of the top elite players in each draft is a gamble in becoming an impact player, and some years even they are, like Yak’s super weak draft year.

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Another reason to take a D before a forward is how much impact they have on a game. Also that it is far harder to acquire top D while we see forwards moving around a lot more . Top goalies also don’t get traded.

    I think of the Oilers last playoffs. Looking good against the opponent, I thought they would beat them, then a little D that many feel is second pairing despite usage when healthy gets hurt and it derails the team.

    Roloson gets hurt same result. I also think Pronger was gassed by that point which didn’t help.

    Bottom line is a strong group of D with depth is the key to a Cup contender, and perennial contender, usually.

    The Pens seemingly won without that, but I think they got yoeman’s work out of some unexpected guys , like the Blues this year, and with the poor health of Letang and the others falling back to earth they couldn’t keep going.

    We’ll see how the Blues respond.

  89. stephen sheps says:

    rickithebear

    Ricki, you know I have a deep respect for you and your approach but your insistence on disparaging what you call a constructivist approach and what others in my field would simply called qualitative research is getting to be a bit much. Qualitative inquiry is a lot more complex and rigorous than just spinning a narrative that has no evidence. The scientific method is still used, sample sizes matter; it’s just a different approach to collecting data. I’d be happy to share my own approach or any of the peer reviewed stuff I have kicking around in my own archive and that I’ve used for teaching research methods.

    The numbers can’t exist entirely in a vacuum – divorced from context they’re almost meaningless. Many analysts would suggest that they find the stories the math is trying to tell us and that the math they use is one of many tools, not the only tool.

    You’ve spoken a lot lately about how Russell is an exceptional defender in a 3-2-1 system, one of the best there is for 0% corsi defence. The trouble is that the Oilers have not used such a system in his time on the team (3 seasons now), so the evidence that we do have (both visual and analytical) that suggests Russell isn’t great at defence is growing.

    I’m not suggesting that your approach is wrong – for the most part your ideas make a lot of sense. Goals and goal prevention are the biggest keys to success; of that there can be no doubt, but I’m less certain that all of the players your models seem to value make the most sense based on the changes to systems and tactics we’ve witnessed over the last few seasons. If Tippett adopts a 3-2-1 style, maybe we’ll see the sort of defensive improvements you’re talking about and Russell’s value will become more obvious. I hope it happens, because if it does the Oilers will likely win a few more games this season, and that would be a welcome change.

  90. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Bulging Twine,

    You could also make a case for Russell as a successful PTO in Edmonton recently. Maybe the PTO angle is what we should be grinding harder, instead of big-game hunting on July 1.

  91. pts2pndr says:

    GMB3:
    pts2pndr,

    He definitely wasn’t on the World Cup team.

    Really!

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kris Russell was never on a PTO with the Oilers – he signed his 1 year contract on the eve of the season but wasn’t on a PTO or with the team prior to the signing.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    World Cup vs. World Championships

  94. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: What is your projection for Quinn Hughes?

    Probably worth half a Russell or less

  95. jeetz says:

    godot10,

    I respectably disagree. I believe the ability to make a consistent great 1st pass gets you to the NHL. You can teach defending to good-elite players but you cannot teach defensemen good 1st pass consistency. In this area I like what the Oilers are doing. On a side note I would have taken Dobson over Bouchard but it is close.

  96. Bulging Twine says:

    Looking at Markus Granlund’s #’s over the last 3 years

    Decent bottom six goal scorer .67 G/60, ixg/60 .57 (i definitely would not expect 19 goals that he got 3 years ago as his shooting percentage was much better)

    Very poor playmaker. He may score a few but won’t help his linemates score.

    Disciplined, and pretty good at drawing penalties.

    Defensively good

    Definitely not a shot blocker – he’s at Sedin levels

    His teams shooting percentage while he’s on the ice is only 5.92% – so there may be a little more offence than the numbers show

  97. Victoria Oil says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes: My money is on Kemp to emerge in 2-3 years as a legit NHL Dman, likely 3rd pairing, but possibly 2nd pairing.Be nice if both he and Marino sign, I consider Marino to be a less offensive/more defensive Petry.

    Kemp is more like Larsson, but with possibly better boots.

    I watched Kemp in person once playing for Yale. The skating and the defending were there, but from what I saw, the lack of offense may block him from making it to the NHL. Third pairing is his ceiling, IMHO.

  98. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, at this point, Bouchard is closer to the NHL and the more “can’t miss prospect”

    but I do think that, as far as overall potential goes, Samorukov has a higher ceiling. No, maybe he doesn’t have a higher point production ceiling but with his skating and his plus defending, I think he’s got “all the tools”. Lets not forget, he was drafted as more of a defensive d-man than an offensive or even a two way guy. He’s also very aggressive and physical. His ability to defend the blue line off the rush at the junior level is off the charts from what I’ve seen – he’ll need to pick his spots better at the pro level but I think he’s smart enough to learn.

    It seems to me that your first sentence doesn’t match the rest of your comment. To me, defending is the one biggest determiner of whether a player is ready for the NHL and Samorukov has provided great offence in the last half of the season and in his international tournaments. The other hindrance to making the NHL is most commonly slow boots. That would also point to Samorukov having an advantage over Bouchard. I think slow would be overstating it, but definitely not fast like Samorukov. Now, one is left-handed and one is right-handed, so, in a way they are not competing against each other but it seems to me that Samorukov may be “closer” to the NHL.

  99. Rebillled says:

    I can believe that Binnington is making $300,000 more than Koskinen.

    Because..

  100. Rebillled says:

    Sorry, $100,000 less. Wow.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yup – the Koskinen contract remains the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiarelli regime – no, not the “worst move” (although it has potential) but the biggest “WTF” moment as there wasn’t a single thing about it that made sense (still doesn’t).

    Oh well, Mikko is an Oiler and I’m hoping he and Smith form some sort of chemistry and create a great tandem for this year. Here is hoping that Smith causes a bonus penalty on the cap next season.

  102. Bulging Twine says:

    Washington’s top two penalty killers in terms of minutes per game the last two seasons were Niskanen and Orpik. Their GA/60 increased by over 2 g/60 to 8.67 and 8.64.

    Orpik retired and Niskanen, 32, was traded to Philadelphia for Gudas, 29. Washington cleared 3.4M in cap space in the trade. Gudas was the Flyers second best PK Defenceman in terms of GA/60 while getting the second most PK ice time.

    Washington last year added Detroits far and away best penalty killing Defenceman, Nik Jensen, 28. In the 20 games that he played with Washington after the trade he was their best PK man.
    The Capitals PK improved by 1.4% after the trade while Detroits PK% fell 3 and 1/2 points.

    Nice work!

    Philadelphia on the other hand lost Gudas and bought out their best PK defenceman MacDonald. They replaced those two with Niskanen, who had the bad PK season, and Justin Braun, also 32 who was San Jose’s worst PK defenceman by a mile. He had a wretched 9.04 GA/60 on the PK. 6th worst in the league for Defenceman getting over 175 minutes on the PK.

    Bad work!

    The Oilers btw gave up the guy who was on the ice for the 12th least GA/60 on the PK in the league for Defencemen who avg his 1:37 PK time/Game or more: Kevin Gravel. He had an outstanding 5.15 GA/60.

    He also led the Oilers D who played 200 or minutes in 5×5 GA/60.

    Let’s see how he does in Toronto. If he does well I wonder if we’ll hear about it??

    The Oilers bought out their second best PK Dman in terms of GA/60. Andrej Sekera. Although he only played 24 games. Sekera was excellent on the Pk in 17-18 in his 36 GP as well.

    The Oilers had the 2nd worst PK in the league last year.

    Gravel was signed by Toronto who unloaded their two worst PK Dmen on Ottawa, Hainsey and Zaitsev, who had GA/60 of 8.36 and 7.54.

    Last season Toronto acquired LA’s 2nd best PK Dman, Jake Muzzin.

    Nice work!

    Fixing the Oilers 2nd worst PK has to be one of the top priorities this season.

    They added Markus Granlund from VCR who killed penalties there but was their worst PK FW who played over a minute a game on the PK. He had bad results the year before as well.

    The Nuge had the 7th worst GA/60 in the league for FW’s who played at least 120 minutes on the PK. Granlund was 8th worst.

    At FW the Oilers best PKers relative to their teammates last season were Ryan Strome and Tobias Rieder. They are gone as well. So the two defencemen and the two FW’s who gave up the least amount of goals on the PK are gone and so far they have brought in a poor Pker at FW.

    Looking at available FW’s, Sheahan had the 42nd best GA/60 on the PK with 6.51. In Pittsburgh he wasn’t good relative to his teammates but in his 33 games in Florida he was outstanding with a 4.84 GA/60.

    Sheahan IMO doesn’t bring enough offence to be a 3C on a good team but may be a good PKing 4C. Holland may vomit at the idea of signing him though as he had to endure watching Sheahan not score in 79 straight games in 16-17 until he scored 2 in the last game of the season. Holland likes goals.

    IN 17-18 Khaira played 103 PK minutes and gave up a superb 4.08 G/60. This last year he was poor like the most on the team giving up 8.67.

    Nuge had the worst PK results for FW’s on the team in 17-18 as well. For starters I think they need to find a C who can PK to replace RNH (amongst other things).

  103. russ99 says:

    The thing about prospects is not all of them make it to LT’s 100 NHL game point.

    So while I’d love to see a NHL top 6 D filled with 3 or 4 of our prospects, the reality is that it’s a poor long bet that we’ll get that, and it takes defensemen the longest to develop.

    The good thing about our depth on D in the system is that even if a few fail we should still get roughly 2 + fill-ins. More than that would be a bonus.

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