Watching the Sausage Get Made

by Lowetide

I have worked in radio for close to 40 years. That’s a lifetime. I could tell you stories that would make you laugh, cry (Don Percy’s “Long Road of Life” story will make you pee your pants, Paul Almeida found out his Dad had passed during an edition of Saturday Sports Extra and held it together better than I ever could) and everything in between.

Successful radio requires two things: A refreshing, compelling noise coming out of the frequency you’ve been assigned, and good people selling the product to businesses. Those businesses advertise, and see an increase in customers (sometimes called listeners). That’s it. That’s all.

Ken Holland is building that refreshing, compelling noise, brick by brick. The twist for Holland? The customers have already put their money down, and the damn radio has played only two good songs in the last 14 attempts.

Holland represents a team whose fan base is beyond frustrated, and Holland appears to be the ultimate “start as you mean to go” personality type. He’s going to build this thing from the ground up, and that means draft and develop. Get good players, keep good players? You bet, starting at 18 years old. No shortcuts, beyond free agency next summer. Eat your breakfast, cows aren’t going to milk themselves.

I believe that’s the plan. So, the question becomes: Are there any kids in the stable who don’t fit the Holland plan? Any he is willing to trade this month? We’ll know our answer soon, I expect. I remain convinced we’ll see a trade between now and the end of summer. I don’t think Holland came here to win the 2020 lottery.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • New Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • New Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • New Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

Would Holland trade Evan Bouchard?

I suspect it would have to be a massive return, as Bouchard is close and fits a very specific need. Detroit picked No. 6 (Filip Zadina) and Bouchard lasted until Edmonton at No. 10 overall. I had Zadina (3) ahead of Bouchard (8) but a year later believe the defenseman is tracking better. For Edmonton’s Bouchard, speed is the issue along with some criticism about lack of urgency in junior. I think he has a better chance of being on the opening night roster than being traded.

What about trading other RHD prospects?

The problem with dealing Ethan Bear or Joel Persson is neither man has established value as an NHL player. Matt Benning is the likely RHD heading out of town, but I maintain he should be kept until Bouchard is ready and possibly beyond. He can play second pair and he can face tough opposition. My choice for right side blue to be dealt? Kris Russell.

Any other prospects of value for trade?

I could see a Benson trade if it represented an upgrade (remember, Holland isn’t attached to any of these men) and Caleb Jones has enough value (imo) to warrant a reasonable return (and William Lagesson is waiting in the wings). Beyond that? In the words of the Four Lads, No, Not Much.

OILERS PROSPECTS DEPTH CHART AND NHLE

Tyler Wright is the new amateur scouting director and this is the list he inherits. I like the list, there’s promise at every position. Now, the top prospects (ones we can assume will get a full NHL chance) include Bouchard, Jones, Bear, Lagesson, Persson, Samorukov and Broberg among the blue (that’s an absolute mountain of prospects on defense). Forwards who’ll get their shots include Benson, Marody, Yamamoto, Maksimov, Lavoie and of course the older fellows like Gambardella and Currie. Joakim Nygard’s chance is 2019-20.

There are so many orphans now the mind boggles. For instance, John Marino. He was drafted during the Chiarelli era, and Chiarelli will be working for another organization (probably) next spring. Will Marino make like Matt Benning and sign with a team other than the one that drafted him? These things will be decided in the coming months. Bottom line: Not everyone on this list should be viewed as having the same value as the PC regime gave them.

What about Wright’s old team?

DETROIT DEPTH CHARTS AND NHLE

The Red Wings have a nice list, I’ll suggest Edmonton has more depth. Best prospect? Evan Bouchard for Edmonton and I’ll go with Joe Veleno (your mileage may vary). My favourite Detroit prospects are Veleno, Hronek and Larson. Kaski is a monster offensive defenseman from the Sm-Liiga, this will be his first season with the organization. He’s kind of Joel Persson’s opposite number. Zadina is the key name here, if he pops Detroit has a strong list.

Huzzah! I’ve always wondered why new coaching staffs didn’t bother to review the previous season’s video. You can gather a lot of information from it, and along with math draw some conclusions or at least raise some questions. Good for Tippett.

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[…] Allan Mitchell of Lowetide.ca:  Again, the Ken Holland plan represents getting younger and building brick by brick. Draft and develop. Kris Russell still appears the most likely RHD trade bait over Matt Benning. […]

[…] Allan Mitchell of Lowetide.ca:  Again, the Ken Holland plan represents getting younger and building brick by brick. Draft and develop. Kris Russell still appears the most likely RHD trade bait over Matt Benning. […]

[…] Allan Mitchell of Lowetide.ca:  Again, the Ken Holland plan represents getting younger and building brick by brick. Draft and develop. Kris Russell still appears the most likely RHD trade bait over Matt Benning. […]

jzed

Finally some consistent daytime sunshine! Hope springs….. Nurse is getting headman pass itis from all the reps , can’t remember what rushing with it felt like.
Benson feels like his skates are extensions of his legs after all the explosion reps
Kharia is practicing like he realizes this is it
Jones is getting stronger by the day,,Bear is hungry like a bear. Lagesson will smoke someone in camp and get in the first fight….

Add in Bouch, all the Swedes who want to get paid and the fact that our new 1B goalie can mentor half of our D on how to pass the puck…

Ah, summer

defmn

OriginalPouzar: Potentially – at the same time, the counterpoint was maybe someone like Maksimov pops and there isn’t a need for a UFA top 6 winger?

That would be great news and, of course, being Oilers fans hope is our best friend. 😉

defmn

jp: No, if they dispose of Russell they do open up more money. I was assuming Lucic and Russell stay.

I do think they sign rather than trade Nurse. And it’s going to eat up some money.

If the goaltending holds and they can dispose or Russell (with young D capably replacing him) then things look pretty good. If not, well it could ugly.

My mistake. The memory isn’t what it used to be. 😉

OriginalPouzar

defmn: Could well play out like that. Which leaves JP’s math unaffected – no money for a UFA top six winger. Which was his point if I remember correctly.

Potentially – at the same time, the counterpoint was maybe someone like Maksimov pops and there isn’t a need for a UFA top 6 winger?

jp

defmn: Could well play out like that. Which leaves JP’s math unaffected – no money for a UFA top six winger. Which was his point if I remember correctly.

No, if they dispose of Russell they do open up more money. I was assuming Lucic and Russell stay.

I do think they sign rather than trade Nurse. And it’s going to eat up some money.

If the goaltending holds and they can dispose or Russell (with young D capably replacing him) then things look pretty good. If not, well it could ugly.

jp

defmn: I don’t see that. If the cap remains flat a balanced top 2 should make around $12 mil. If you give $10 mil to the dominant player in that pair it only leaves you $2 mil for the other player. If you pay Nurse $7 mil he is still most likely to be the highest paid dman on the team going forward.

Regardless of any of this my comments have nothing to do with what he might make. They are about what the Oilers can afford next summer.

Right now, and this will obviously go up even through this summer:
1D, #31D salary $5.7M (cap hit)
2D, #62D $4.6M
3D, #93D $3.75M (it was $3.875 among players who played last season last season)
4D, #124D $2.138M ($2.50 last year)
5D, #155D $925k ($1.3M last year)

Last years numbers are included because there are more unsigned RFAs than I realized.

I think it’s clear that $7M is really solidly into #1D money now, and I do wonder whether it’s a bit high for even Nurse’s camp to ask (assuming another year like this past one).

Also, we are very very luck to have Klefbom and Larsson being paid #3D, soon #4D money.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: Although I don’t agree with the premise that “Sekera’s buyout money was given to Chiasson”, if we buy in to that line of thought they, the summer 2020 Russell disposition and replacement on the roster with an ELC cap savings of $3M will be given to Nurse for his raise – boom, done!.

Perhaps Maksimov pops and is the top 6 scorer in 2020/21?

Time will tell – I’m going to enjoy Dranell’s tireless minute munching this coming year and, hopeful, ability to play less minutes with Kris Russell as his partner – Matt Benning or Adam Larsson please.

Could well play out like that. Which leaves JP’s math unaffected – no money for a UFA top six winger. Which was his point if I remember correctly.

defmn

JimmyV1965: Nurse was in the top 30 scoring for dmen. He has warts to his game for sure, but so do many others in the top 30. Nurse is going to get paid. It will probably appear be too much when he signs the deal, but in a couple years it will be a good value, just like many other player signings. Trading good players entering their prime is something the Oilers have done in the past. Never really turns out good.Keep good players.

Not sure why responses to my posts keep telling me we should keep Nurse. I never said otherwise. The last few weeks here have all been about the lack of top six wingers on the team. JP posts showing that next year is not going to free up any more money for a top six winger than this summer did if Nurse gets paid $7 mil.

This isn’t about what Nurse is worth. It is simple addition. Can the team afford to pay Nurse $7 million and add top six wingers next summer? The math says no. Holland will have to make choices. I fail to see how that is controversial.

defmn

godot10: #1D money is overy $10 million now.
#2D-#3D money is going to be $7 miillion to $10 million.

Trouba, Werenski, McAvoy, Gardiner and others yet to sign.

I don’t see that. If the cap remains flat a balanced top 2 should make around $12 mil. If you give $10 mil to the dominant player in that pair it only leaves you $2 mil for the other player. If you pay Nurse $7 mil he is still most likely to be the highest paid dman on the team going forward.

Regardless of any of this my comments have nothing to do with what he might make. They are about what the Oilers can afford next summer.

OriginalPouzar

“If you do not know understand them it just means you do not know anything about winning multivariable game action analysis.”

BURN!

OriginalPouzar

defmn: Completely agree. Big year for him. If he takes yet another step and the cap does not increase significantly Holland will have a major decision to make. A first pairing dman with all of Nurse’s other attributes is definitely worth $7 mil. Whether the Oilers can afford that is the question I don’t know the answer to.

Signing him to a contract of that size will make the top 6 winger upgrade as difficult next year as it has been this summer as the post that started this discussion showed.

Mine is not an argument for or against trading Nurse. I was simply agreeing with JP that it is an illusion that we will be out of cap trouble next summer.

Chiarelli’s decisions will haunt us longer than that imo.

Although I don’t agree with the premise that “Sekera’s buyout money was given to Chiasson”, if we buy in to that line of thought they, the summer 2020 Russell disposition and replacement on the roster with an ELC cap savings of $3M will be given to Nurse for his raise – boom, done!.

Perhaps Maksimov pops and is the top 6 scorer in 2020/21?

Time will tell – I’m going to enjoy Dranell’s tireless minute munching this coming year and, hopeful, ability to play less minutes with Kris Russell as his partner – Matt Benning or Adam Larsson please.

OriginalPouzar

RonnieB: Or Brassard at a bargain price ? ~1 x$2.5 ?

Yes, at this point, yup, I’ll take D. Brassard as long as its a one year deal – I wouldn’t give him a second year to entice him.

Maybe he can find some long lost offence? He was really bad last year but he’ll be playing to stay in the league next year.

Some of these guys may be coming to camps on PTOs.

OriginalPouzar

Brocktw:
Eh Team,

Possibly, or he is a bottom 6 guy who was stuck behind some very good young forwards in Boston. Breaking free to a club with very little good young forwardsseemed to allow him to shine inrole.He is not a poor bet.

If we all agree we need a few rems then Colby cave is an important part of the roster next year.

I do believe that Cave is a very poor bet at 3C and a “meh” bet at 4C.

Sure, Cave “did fine” in his minutes last year but is he anything more than a tweener? The team PK rates with him on the ice are the worst on the team (sample size alert).

If Cave is 3C to start the year, I fear huge issues. In fact, if Cave wins the 4C spot, I think things are already looking bleak.

JimmyV1965

defmn: I’d take the Maserati over the Ford too but you still have to be able to make the payments, buy the insurance and fill the gas tank.

I haven’t seen anybody say they don’t want Nurse. What has been said is that given Edmonton’s need to fill out the roster there is a question as to whether or not the team can afford a 2nd pairing dman at $7 mil.

Framing the issue as one of comparative value without taking into account whether or not the team has the cap space misrepresents the situation imo.

Nurse was in the top 30 scoring for dmen. He has warts to his game for sure, but so do many others in the top 30. Nurse is going to get paid. It will probably appear be too much when he signs the deal, but in a couple years it will be a good value, just like many other player signings. Trading good players entering their prime is something the Oilers have done in the past. Never really turns out good. Keep good players.

godot10

defmn: I don’t think anybody is advocating making a bad trade.

I do think that $7 mil is first pair money so for me to commit to that contract I have to be convinced that Nurse is a dominant first pair dman or will be in the near future.

He has this year to make that case.

#1D money is overy $10 million now.
#2D-#3D money is going to be $7 miillion to $10 million.

Trouba, Werenski, McAvoy, Gardiner and others yet to sign.

rickithebear

Request re shot density.
I posted that kind of info just before freecagency when looking door top 6 evg scorering wingers.

Were I found 8 evg is a top 6 fwd winger.

I saw shooting densities in the 9 to 11% range for top 6 at even.

Someone had stated that Chaissons PPG shot density was not sustainable.
He scored at a 23% rate which was barely top 45.

Puljujarvis numbers are awful. Relative to the league.

rickithebear

I just read a collection of minimal affect micro analysis on this site based on passing and zonal based structures.
That are up to 700% less important than the 7 largest goal diff affects.

I quit using traditional rate based WoWY.
That is now found on Nat Stat.

Cause of the failure to differentiate by the the 7 largest goal diff affect factors.

Just recently went back to viewing of goals for and goals against while splitting them into differentiated group. For simplified results.
What I call a manual process that I did starting in 07-08 with the behind the net resource arrival.

Off to bed.

rickithebear

OilSNC79:
All those are theori that I presented on here over the last 13 years.

That is a list of 27 theorems ( proven by seasonal data)

If you do not know understand them it just means you do not know anything about winning multivariable game action analysis.

Heck woodguy spent 6 years arguing against my concept that is a basis for his web site.
Your wrong
Your wrong
Your wrong
Oh heh!

Problem is thevsite is still a constructionist narative.
He chooses data DFF that makes his results are 50% inaccurate.
I did multiple population test for the best GA dmen and GF forwards.
For different seasons.
His capture rate was around 47%.

Brutally awful.

Each one of the theorems requires pages of explanation.
Which I usually post over a 1-2 yr period.
Problem is first 6 years of LT blog is lost.
Since LT has not responded to my request for past history of my posts.

I have been able to capture all my posts on HF boards.

Including my prediction of Vegas Golden Knights having the potential to make the cup final pre expansion draft.

Since most do not have the ability to visualize simple human motion.
I have come to the conclusion is a series of video examples of
Human motion in the game related to the theorems will be needed.

jp

Brocktw,

Eh Team,

He didn’t score enough, and got outscored, but he’s an interesting player. His corsi, fenwick and shot rates lead all Oiler forwards. Same in expected GF, and with tough zone starts. He won some face-offs and killed penalties a bit too. And he *looked* like he could play.

I don’t think he’s a 3C, but he might be a solid 4C who could stick around for a bit.

defmn

pts2pndr: I do be believe we wii have a better idea what Nurse’s upper limit is after this year particularly if Klefbom is our for any period of time. At his age and with his tool box if he tears the cover off the ball he could be able to demand ( market wise) more than we can afford to pay. It may make the bridge deal look even worse than it does now.

Completely agree. Big year for him. If he takes yet another step and the cap does not increase significantly Holland will have a major decision to make. A first pairing dman with all of Nurse’s other attributes is definitely worth $7 mil. Whether the Oilers can afford that is the question I don’t know the answer to.

Signing him to a contract of that size will make the top 6 winger upgrade as difficult next year as it has been this summer as the post that started this discussion showed.

Mine is not an argument for or against trading Nurse. I was simply agreeing with JP that it is an illusion that we will be out of cap trouble next summer.

Chiarelli’s decisions will haunt us longer than that imo.

RonnieB

OriginalPouzar: Sheehan, Lingberg, Boyle, Marleau, apparently Arcobello.

I’ve still got a target on Vegas and Eakin

Or Brassard at a bargain price ? ~1 x $2.5 ?

Eh Team

Brocktw: Possibly, or he is a bottom 6 guy who was stuck behind some very good young forwards in Boston. Breaking free to a club with very little good young forwards seemed to allow him to shine in role. He is not a poor bet.

3 points in 33 games with the Oilers is hardly impressive

pts2pndr

defmn: I don’t think anybody is advocating making a bad trade.

I do think that $7 mil is first pair money so for me to commit to that contract I have to be convinced that Nurse is a dominant first pair dman or will be in the near future.

He has this year to make that case.

I do be believe we wii have a better idea what Nurse’s upper limit is after this year particularly if Klefbom is our for any period of time. At his age and with his tool box if he tears the cover off the ball he could be able to demand ( market wise) more than we can afford to pay. It may make the bridge deal look even worse than it does now.

Brocktw

Eh Team,

Possibly, or he is a bottom 6 guy who was stuck behind some very good young forwards in Boston. Breaking free to a club with very little good young forwards seemed to allow him to shine in role. He is not a poor bet.

If we all agree we need a few rems then Colby cave is an important part of the roster next year.

Eh Team

Brocktw: In the end All three players are bottom 6 center assets. To me caves age and situation: picked up on waivers from the cup finalist and showing an acceptable level of bottom 6 play” over the second half of last years season is not a reason to discount.

Cave’s maybe a good 3C in the AHL. 8 points in 56 career NHL games- he’s a guy who will easily clear waivers, not a NHL 3C (or even 4C)

GB&Q

When it comes to the handling of young European recruits, the Falmes seem to be figuring it out.

Brocktw

Ryan,

Not a bad idea. But not better, probably closer to the same. Although all three cave, brodz, arco is better by two thirds.

In the end All three players are bottom 6 center assets. To me caves age and situation: picked up on waivers from the cup finalist and showing an acceptable level of bottom 6 play” over the second half of last years season is not a reason to discount.

The thing to remember is above this group is the league’s top 3 center punch, by half!. Look for good AHL depth to challenge as well. China left us with some serious issues. Quality pipeline of pros is the best it has ever been. From top down. And that is good.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Sheehan, Lingberg, Boyle, Marleau, apparently Arcobello.

I’ve still got a target on Vegas and Eakin

Yup, lots of options still.

I don’t understand Eakin as your hard target though. He’s a good player, but is he worth the $3.8M plus (middling) assets to acquire? (in particular considering the Oilers cap situation)

If you bring in one of the other guys for $1.5M you can still theoretically add a winger who could help the 2nd or 3rd line. The Puljujarvi trade return for instance. Add Eakin and you’re done adding.

jp

OriginalPouzar: 211 minutes – 68% goal share for Nuge and Lucic last year – that can’t be ignored, can it?

I noticed that too and thought the same thing. Did you notice the other numbers though? ~45% in corsi, shots, fenwick. xGF% together was 43.55%. So maybe it should be ignored.

jp

Ryan:
Ryan,

Alternatively, Khaira sucks at weak side draws so…

Again, not ideal but if you played Khaira with Gagner, you’d at least have a third line that produced offense above AHL tweeter/expired vet rates and Gagner could take the draws on his strong side.

It would be an improvement on Cave/Brodziak, agreed there. Arcobello was 2nd in NLA scoring, 15 points ahead of his teammate Haas. Who knows.

OriginalPouzar

jp: I agree, Holland has been clear on the need for a 3C. And there are still a number of FAs out there that can help.

Sheehan, Lingberg, Boyle, Marleau, apparently Arcobello.

I’ve still got a target on Vegas and Eakin

Ryan

Ryan,

Alternatively, Khaira sucks at weak side draws so…

Again, not ideal but if you played Khaira with Gagner, you’d at least have a third line that produced offense above AHL tweeter/expired vet rates and Gagner could take the draws on his strong side.

OriginalPouzar

jp: There’s no question Lucic doesn’t score much. And I absolutely agree that we don’t want Lucic playing in the top 6 if there are better options. I hope there are better options.

What LT has been saying for years, I believe, is that the Oilers *give back* everything when McDavid isn’t on the ice. Actual scoring rates are no more important than how much you give up.

In that regard Lucic has been one of the better Oilers, and he’s very clearly been among the Oilers top 9 in GF% in each of the past 3 years. Lucic suppresses offence both ways – there’s value in that.

Didn’t LT list Lucic-RNH-Nygard as the likely best (currently) available Oilers 2nd line for the upcoming season (recent Athletic article)?

211 minutes – 68% goal share for Nuge and Lucic last year – that can’t be ignored, can it?

OriginalPouzar

Brocktw:
OriginalPouzar,

I’m not saying it’s not an area for concern I’m saying they will be ok running with it.

My guess is right wing is the position that is keeping them up at night, not 3c.

We will see though, and me as a piss pour scout gives cave the edge.

You could be right, I guess we’ll see.

What I do know is that Ken Holland has been extremely true to his word with respect to what he’s going to acquire this off-season (and not acquire) and has expressly mentioned the 3C

jp

OriginalPouzar: Holland himself said, in no uncertain words, he needs a 3C – this was on July 1 at the day end presser (and he’s repeated it since).

From your list:

– Khaira and Gagner – Khaira has potential as a center but both these players are better on the wing and Holland himself said this in his presser

– Hass – not even sure he’s an NHL player, let alone a center at the NHL level, let alone a 3C

– Cave – NHL tweener at best – if anything, 4C.If Cave is 3C, that is a very bad sign

– Brodziak – last year was a cliff.Can he recover?Maybe but unlikely at his age.If anything, 4C

– Marody – still needs to prove he can skate at the NHL level and, assuming his skill can carry him, its likely as a winger and certaintly unlikely as a 3C as an NHL rookie.

– McLeod – not a legit NHL option this year.

Its actually clear from the list that a 3C is needed.

I agree, Holland has been clear on the need for a 3C. And there are still a number of FAs out there that can help.

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: Holland himself said, in no uncertain words, he needs a 3C – this was on July 1 at the day end presser (and he’s repeated it since).

From your list:

– Khaira and Gagner – Khaira has potential as a center but both these players are better on the wing and Holland himself said this in his presser

– Hass – not even sure he’s an NHL player, let alone a center at the NHL level, let alone a 3C

– Cave – NHL tweener at best – if anything, 4C.If Cave is 3C, that is a very bad sign

– Brodziak – last year was a cliff.Can he recover?Maybe but unlikely at his age.If anything, 4C

– Marody – still needs to prove he can skate at the NHL level and, assuming his skill can carry him, its likely as a winger and certaintly unlikely as a 3C as an NHL rookie.

– McLeod – not a legit NHL option this year.

Its actually clear from the list that a 3C is needed.

Here’s thinking outside of the box…

Marc Arcobello. $1m x1. RHS. 30.

Handshake deal if he doesn’t make the team, he goes back to Switzerland.

Before I get roasted here it’s not ideal nor optimal, but it’s better than the Cave / Brodziak dual 4rth line tandem.

Played for Tippett.

jp

Rube Foster: I’ll be the first to admit that It’s kind of silly that we’re “bickering” about how much impact if any that Lucic had on Strome and Puljujarvi’s offense the first 20 games of the 2018 season. Spilt milk. I guess that makes us typical Oiler fans:)

Regarding Milan – and I promise this will be my last Lucic rant of the day.

As LT has been saying for years, the Edmonton Oilers have a significant scoring problem when Connor McDavid is not on the ice. Math clearly demonstrates Lucic’s 5 on 5 scoring rates are poor, and have been getting poorer every year.

Just for fun, look at Lucic’s 5 on 5offensive results for the last three seasons and compare them to NHL averages. Then remind yourself that Mclellan had Lucic playing with legit top six NHL talent for most of the first two years.

I take no pleasure in saying this, but by eye and by Math, Milan Lucic has been regressing every year since he joined the Edmonton Oilers to the point where he now produces at NHL replacement level player rates.

Milan Lucic by all accounts is a warrior and champion. He has had a truly remarkable career as a professional hockey player. He is a gentlemen and great teammate. His physicality and his leadership qualities remain assets.

Non of that changes the facts that when you compare his offensive metricsto his peers in the NHL, he performs at a fourth line level.

ShouldMilan Lucic play significant minutes in the Edmonton Oilers top six forward group during the 2019/20 NHL season, it is very likely we will be drafting in the top 10 again come summer of 2020.

There’s no question Lucic doesn’t score much. And I absolutely agree that we don’t want Lucic playing in the top 6 if there are better options. I hope there are better options.

What LT has been saying for years, I believe, is that the Oilers *give back* everything when McDavid isn’t on the ice. Actual scoring rates are no more important than how much you give up.

In that regard Lucic has been one of the better Oilers, and he’s very clearly been among the Oilers top 9 in GF% in each of the past 3 years. Lucic suppresses offence both ways – there’s value in that.

Didn’t LT list Lucic-RNH-Nygard as the likely best (currently) available Oilers 2nd line for the upcoming season (recent Athletic article)?

Brocktw

OriginalPouzar,

I’m not saying it’s not an area for concern I’m saying they will be ok running with it.

My guess is right wing is the position that is keeping them up at night, not 3c.

We will see though, and me as a piss pour scout gives cave the edge.

OriginalPouzar

Brocktw:
Lowetide,

I’m not so sure that a number three center is as high on Hollands list as being made out. I think they are all right with cave, kaihra, brodziak, gagne, Haas, parody andMacLeod. Although a team friendly deal could get us boyle to add to the list.

They need a winger and their is probably a team friendly number on the table that gets maroon back. For what dizengl signed for I wonder what the offer from Edmonton was?

Barring a ridiculous trade offer expect Russell to be holding down a 6-7 d role for the next 164 games – the trips to the IR.He is an absolute intangible monster! with the 6-8 legitimate d prospects needing to be developed over the next 2 years expect him to be

Holland himself said, in no uncertain words, he needs a 3C – this was on July 1 at the day end presser (and he’s repeated it since).

From your list:

– Khaira and Gagner – Khaira has potential as a center but both these players are better on the wing and Holland himself said this in his presser

– Hass – not even sure he’s an NHL player, let alone a center at the NHL level, let alone a 3C

– Cave – NHL tweener at best – if anything, 4C. If Cave is 3C, that is a very bad sign

– Brodziak – last year was a cliff. Can he recover? Maybe but unlikely at his age. If anything, 4C

– Marody – still needs to prove he can skate at the NHL level and, assuming his skill can carry him, its likely as a winger and certaintly unlikely as a 3C as an NHL rookie.

– McLeod – not a legit NHL option this year.

Its actually clear from the list that a 3C is needed.

pts2pndr

rickithebear: You act like trading a non top open shot HD dman so you can get a top 10 open HD sh save% goalie that is part of almost every conf & cup champion over the last 25 years is a bad thing.

Hi Mr bear. As always any player can and at times should be traded to improve the team. What I am against is trading players on the promise that a young player may be able to get the job done. Trading a player to fill a hole while making another hole is an exercise in futility with the end results being a worse team.

OriginalPouzar

Scungilli Slushy:

If Tippet can get everyone on the same page the goalies will be better by default, and the wingers that currently can’t find there asses with both hands a go pro, might actually do something helpful.

There is a (the) main key to the season – the tending and it holding and giving the team a chance to win on most nights. As you state, here is hoping that better team structure, defensive structure, etc. will help the tenders.

Like most NHL tenders, both of these guys have shown the ability to “get hot” and provide plus tending for a couple weeks plus (Smith with a history of longer streaks) – here is hoping one or the other is hot for most periods of the year.

defmn

OriginalPouzar:
If Tyler Myers is worth $6M X 5, I’ll take Nurse at $7M X 8.

Yes, I know UFA vs. RFA but still.

I’d take the Maserati over the Ford too but you still have to be able to make the payments, buy the insurance and fill the gas tank.

I haven’t seen anybody say they don’t want Nurse. What has been said is that given Edmonton’s need to fill out the roster there is a question as to whether or not the team can afford a 2nd pairing dman at $7 mil.

Framing the issue as one of comparative value without taking into account whether or not the team has the cap space misrepresents the situation imo.

Brocktw

Lowetide,

I’m not so sure that a number three center is as high on Hollands list as being made out. I think they are all right with cave, kaihra, brodziak, gagne, Haas, parody and MacLeod. Although a team friendly deal could get us boyle to add to the list. I also think cave has more love then most of us think. He is next years chiasson and I’d put a 20 on it.

They need a winger and their is probably a team friendly number on the table that gets maroon back. For what dizengl signed for I wonder what the offer from Edmonton was? Irregardless, first and second line right wing is a crater If maroon doesnt make out expect pullugarvi either filling the spot with a trade or his body.

Barring a ridiculous trade offer expect Russell to be holding down a 6-7 d role for the next 164 games minus the trips to IR. He is an absolute intangible monster! Their are 6-8 legitimate d prospects needing to be developed over the next 2 years. Expect him to be riding shotgun to a few valuable names; bear, Jones and Bouchard to name a few. This is a good thing and longterm is worth 8 mill.

Imagine if 10 years ago some brainiac would of said ‘ hey let’s get one of these high character guys to play on a wing with some of our young guys’. What would of he been worth? ‘ hey we have some great veterans here let’s let them lead the culture so our halls and yaks aren’t ruined’. Nope. It was ‘ I want hall playing number one center. Kevvy my boy, tell Steve to clean house and see if he can get us some seconds. If Steve cant tell him Craig will’.

Benning and nurse will benefit from the struggles last year. Having hitch on as an advisor with the first hand coach player relationships from 18-19 is a good thing. I expect growth among these young men. We will see. I have a feeling that they will prove some trade geeks wrong over the next few years.

Either Gambradella or Currie will make a huge bottom 6 showing this year. That’s my bet. Russell, day or malone may be the players that do it. If we are seeing progress, Jay woodcrofts first brilliant season will pay dividends starting where it should. Bottom of the roster depth. Like a goon in the 90’s, roster depth has extreme value now a days. The good teams grow it in the minors.

On lucic, a summer of on the ice training will pay off. He will accept his lot and the Oilers will build the bottom 6 neutral zone and forecheckkng systems around him. He will get 20-30 points, but no one will doubt his presence. I dont really know this to be true, I’m just being optimistic.

Goalies – who knows?

Rube Foster

jp: Yes, we agree on Puljujarvi.

I also agree that Lucic wouldn’t be a top 9 forward by performance on many teams. He very well may remain one of the Oilers 9 best next season though. And I hope that Holland and Tippett play the best players they can in the best spots for the team to succeed despite what said players “should” be.

I still disagree about Lucic being responsible for Strome and Puljujarvi’s lack of offence. In 17-18 Strome scored 1.46P/60 overall, but 1.66P/60 with Lucic. This past season he scored one 5on5 point with the Oilers. It was wth Lucic on the ice. He scored no points in 60 minutes without Lucic.

Strome clearly went cold to start the year. Then he went back to being Strome when he was dealt. His 5on5 P/60 by year:
13-14 1.47
14-15 2.53!!
15-16 1.33
16-17 1.58
17-18 1.46
18-19 (EDM) 0.31
18-19 (NYI) 1.32

It doesn’t seem at all reasonable to blame Lucic for a cold streak by Strome IMO.

I’ll be the first to admit that It’s kind of silly that we’re “bickering” about how much impact if any that Lucic had on Strome and Puljujarvi’s offense the first 20 games of the 2018 season. Spilt milk. I guess that makes us typical Oiler fans:)

Regarding Milan – and I promise this will be my last Lucic rant of the day.

As LT has been saying for years, the Edmonton Oilers have a significant scoring problem when Connor McDavid is not on the ice. Math clearly demonstrates Lucic’s 5 on 5 scoring rates are poor, and have been getting poorer every year.

Just for fun, look at Lucic’s 5 on 5 offensive results for the last three seasons and compare them to NHL averages. Then remind yourself that Mclellan had Lucic playing with legit top six NHL talent for most of the first two years.

I take no pleasure in saying this, but by eye and by Math, Milan Lucic has been regressing every year since he joined the Edmonton Oilers to the point where he now produces at NHL replacement level player rates.

Milan Lucic by all accounts is a warrior and champion. He has had a truly remarkable career as a professional hockey player. He is a gentlemen and great teammate. His physicality and his leadership qualities remain assets.

None of that changes the facts that when you compare his offensive metrics to his peers in the NHL, he performs at a fourth line level.

Should Milan Lucic play significant minutes in the Edmonton Oilers top six forward group during the 2019/20 NHL season, it is very likely we will be drafting in the top 10 again come summer of 2020.

Bulging Twine

running the wowy’s for gf/60 and ga/60 on Markus Granlund last year it appears he was a drag on everyone’s offence except Jay Beagle (probably cuz there wasn’t much to drag).

and he helped everyone’s GA/60 except Tyler Motte

-this is for those who played more than 100 minutes together

Scungilli Slushy

When we talk about what the Oilers can and can’t do remeberizing the past, I am not sure that is a good take on things.

There is a new sheriff in town and significant changes have been made to the hive mindset. Not to mention what we see in public.

Holland may fail because he can’t get done what he wants to do or is out of tune and wrong like Unsneaky Pete, but the past narratives don’t apply anymore IMO.

It’s a new day and if it works kudos to Mr Katz. I imagine what he’s done is hard to do, bringing in your idols and former party mates and having to move them all out of the circle. Expensive, outside of MacT, in keeping them on the payroll.

oilsnc79

texmex:
Jordan binnington AAV $4.4m.

rickithebear:
Last few weeks I have changed the distinction of my work.

Yes LT
Observation & Data is the process.
You develop theories.
Repetition of multiple season data proves your theories.
That is were all my theorems come from.

Like
-High/ low danger shot
– High Danger shot area.
-Elite HD SH Dmen
-Table hockey Goalie movement
-Open/Closed shot
-0% Corsi
-Elite 0% corsi dmen
-Dmen establish the Open HD SH Save% baseline a goalie performs around
-Elite Open HD SH dmen/ pairs
-Forward establish Corsi rates thru entry ratevrestriction thru NZ traps.
– rovers create a 3-1-1-1 structure.
-Rovers have 1/4 the success rate at generating EVG than forward.
-Rovers cause high Corsi rates by not allowing Fwd NZ traps and a Dpair to press the blue.
-Rover 3-1-1-1 abandonment of HD area yields the highest rate of open HD shot rates.
-Rovers 3-1-1-1 abandonment of HD area creates the lowest Open HD save% baseline for goalies to perform around.
-Elite +ve Open SH save% goalies.

-Each fwd have their own expected goal mass over a career
-Each Dman has their own open HD SH density per corsi to their side over a career.
-Each goalie has their own open HD save % +ve or -ve over a career.

-Their is no such thing as a move to a league average for any individual player.
-PDO is a simplistic constructive narative with no merit at an individual analytic measure level.
It fails to hold.
Taking 2 league averages when their are 3 separate that exist for fwd, Dmen, Goalies makes it invalid.

– Bench change with or without pocession is the biggest ZS affect on players entry, corsi rates.
– Ability to run a fwd NZ trap is the biggest non zone start on a players entry, Corsi rates.
– 3D situation performance averages is the lowest variable analysis with accurate performance value.
Team, comp, ZS.

– Cup core roster structure.
High% of championships won by cup core rosters over last 25 years.
Only 2 teams have won championships without injury or Ref influence.
2008 Penguins
2009 Penguins
Carolina beat
Buffalo who lost 3 HD dmen in East Conf final.
Edmonton who lost a top 10 open HD goalie Rollie.
Had to go with sub top 30 open HD save% goalies Conklin, Markannen.
Florida advanced to Cuo final withstrong EV goal fwd depth, and top 3 open HD def structure topped by one of the 2 Origional table hockey movement goalies JVB.
-Top GA teams advance to final 4 at a substantionally higher % than GF teams.

That is just 26 of the 40+ theorems that repeat themselves.

The latest theory that interests me is that
– someforwards adjust their open space targeting when they move from 3-2-1 to 3-1-1-1 structures.
– if they do, what type are they. Suspect less mobile.

Can any one on Lt’s possibly expain in any form of explain rikkis post. Please

What’s Koskinen make again?