Watching the Sausage Get Made

I have worked in radio for close to 40 years. That’s a lifetime. I could tell you stories that would make you laugh, cry (Don Percy’s “Long Road of Life” story will make you pee your pants, Paul Almeida found out his Dad had passed during an edition of Saturday Sports Extra and held it together better than I ever could) and everything in between.

Successful radio requires two things: A refreshing, compelling noise coming out of the frequency you’ve been assigned, and good people selling the product to businesses. Those businesses advertise, and see an increase in customers (sometimes called listeners). That’s it. That’s all.

Ken Holland is building that refreshing, compelling noise, brick by brick. The twist for Holland? The customers have already put their money down, and the damn radio has played only two good songs in the last 14 attempts.

Holland represents a team whose fan base is beyond frustrated, and Holland appears to be the ultimate “start as you mean to go” personality type. He’s going to build this thing from the ground up, and that means draft and develop. Get good players, keep good players? You bet, starting at 18 years old. No shortcuts, beyond free agency next summer. Eat your breakfast, cows aren’t going to milk themselves.

I believe that’s the plan. So, the question becomes: Are there any kids in the stable who don’t fit the Holland plan? Any he is willing to trade this month? We’ll know our answer soon, I expect. I remain convinced we’ll see a trade between now and the end of summer. I don’t think Holland came here to win the 2020 lottery.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • New Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • New Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • New Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

Would Holland trade Evan Bouchard?

I suspect it would have to be a massive return, as Bouchard is close and fits a very specific need. Detroit picked No. 6 (Filip Zadina) and Bouchard lasted until Edmonton at No. 10 overall. I had Zadina (3) ahead of Bouchard (8) but a year later believe the defenseman is tracking better. For Edmonton’s Bouchard, speed is the issue along with some criticism about lack of urgency in junior. I think he has a better chance of being on the opening night roster than being traded.

What about trading other RHD prospects?

The problem with dealing Ethan Bear or Joel Persson is neither man has established value as an NHL player. Matt Benning is the likely RHD heading out of town, but I maintain he should be kept until Bouchard is ready and possibly beyond. He can play second pair and he can face tough opposition. My choice for right side blue to be dealt? Kris Russell.

Any other prospects of value for trade?

I could see a Benson trade if it represented an upgrade (remember, Holland isn’t attached to any of these men) and Caleb Jones has enough value (imo) to warrant a reasonable return (and William Lagesson is waiting in the wings). Beyond that? In the words of the Four Lads, No, Not Much.

OILERS PROSPECTS DEPTH CHART AND NHLE

Tyler Wright is the new amateur scouting director and this is the list he inherits. I like the list, there’s promise at every position. Now, the top prospects (ones we can assume will get a full NHL chance) include Bouchard, Jones, Bear, Lagesson, Persson, Samorukov and Broberg among the blue (that’s an absolute mountain of prospects on defense). Forwards who’ll get their shots include Benson, Marody, Yamamoto, Maksimov, Lavoie and of course the older fellows like Gambardella and Currie. Joakim Nygard’s chance is 2019-20.

There are so many orphans now the mind boggles. For instance, John Marino. He was drafted during the Chiarelli era, and Chiarelli will be working for another organization (probably) next spring. Will Marino make like Matt Benning and sign with a team other than the one that drafted him? These things will be decided in the coming months. Bottom line: Not everyone on this list should be viewed as having the same value as the PC regime gave them.

What about Wright’s old team?

DETROIT DEPTH CHARTS AND NHLE

The Red Wings have a nice list, I’ll suggest Edmonton has more depth. Best prospect? Evan Bouchard for Edmonton and I’ll go with Joe Veleno (your mileage may vary). My favourite Detroit prospects are Veleno, Hronek and Larson. Kaski is a monster offensive defenseman from the Sm-Liiga, this will be his first season with the organization. He’s kind of Joel Persson’s opposite number. Zadina is the key name here, if he pops Detroit has a strong list.

Huzzah! I’ve always wondered why new coaching staffs didn’t bother to review the previous season’s video. You can gather a lot of information from it, and along with math draw some conclusions or at least raise some questions. Good for Tippett.

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144 Responses to "Watching the Sausage Get Made"

  1. slopitch says:

    Early post! Me like!

    I remain convinced a trade for top 6 is coming too. Hopeful for a 3 for 1 involving JP but who knows. Without a trade this whole summer is much ado about nothing. They owe the fans progress. They owe Connor progress. Still time…

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    If you want to sell the sausage, you have to know how to sell the sizzle. But, and this is the important part, at some point you actually have to produce the sausage….. – Sir Terry Pratchett.

    Draft and development in the McDavid years. Lordy, that’s a lot of sizzle that no amount of sausage can cover.

  3. Glovjuice says:

    Jones or Benning in the grinder with a Puli binder and a dash of 2nd (2020) for Ehlers would be a good sausage. Oh, and Hitch Hikin’ off the latest Springsteen album is our song of summer along with Loving Cup by the mighty Stones.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    If you want to sell the sausage, you have to know how to sell the sizzle. But, and this is the important part, at some point you actually have to produce the sausage….. – Sir Terry Pratchett.

    Draft and development in the McDavid years. Lordy, that’s a lot of sizzle that no amount of sausage can cover.

    Would Nyqvist at $5.5 million times four appealed to you? I felt that deal was maybe just out of the comfort zone. Not sure there’s a UFA contract signed this summer that I’m flabbergasted about this summer (in terms of Edmonton not getting in).

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide,

    We’ll, if everyone is paying those prices, then those are the prices.

    Agreed it was a weak crop of UFAs. But that’s when the creative juices need to flow.

    My take is that if this indeed a write off year, then clean house. The pick should have been used to move Lucic, a la Marleau, still buyout Sekera if you must, still sign those bit part players. I liked the Jurco bet. Not the Smith.

  6. russ99 says:

    The other Gregor tweet quoting Tippett was even more encouraging:

    “When players have the puck, it is more freelance, and you have to support, but a lot of what I watch for is how they play away from the puck and how the five guys can play together. One guy out of sync can really hurt the others.” Tippett #Oilers

    I’m curious if we’ll see more proactive moves from Holland now that his scouts are in place.

  7. dmjkrash says:

    Magnus Pääjärvi is still a UFA that would cost us basically nothing and has lots of speed. Move Leon to right wing and put Magnus on the left with Connor.

  8. bobinyvr says:

    Lowetide, I would agree with your “start as you mean to go” characterization of Holland’s summer.

    But I find his verbiage on building a strong, long term, winning foundation at odds with signing a bunch of guys on one (and two) year deals.

    Do you think he expects any of Granland, Smith, Chiasson, Jurco to be around once they even make the playoffs let alone contend?

    Seems to me that all of them are placeholders and nothing more. Are they only here so as to not rush the prospects like Benson, etc.

    Not doubt he was dealt a bad hand.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Lowetide,

    We’ll, if everyone is paying those prices, then those are the prices.

    Agreed it was a weak crop of UFAs. But that’s when the creative juices need to flow.

    My take is that if this indeed a write off year, then clean house. The pick should have been used to move Lucic, a la Marleau, still buyout Sekera if you must, still sign those bit part players. I liked the Jurco bet. Not the Smith.

    I don’t know. I feel like the Nyqvist deal, if signed by Edmonton would have caused outrage, too. For me, Holland needs to acquire a scoring winger and a No. 3 center in order to give this team a fighting chance. However, I don’t have an issue with his not giving Nyqvist that term (term being the bigger issue).

  10. Lowetide says:

    bobinyvr:
    Lowetide, I would agree with your “start as you mean to go” characterization of Holland’s summer.

    But I find his verbiage on building a strong, long term, winning foundation at odds with signing a bunch of guys on one (and two) year deals.

    Do you think he expects any of Granland, Smith, Chiasson, Jurco to be around once they even make the playoffs let alone contend?

    Seems to me that all of them are placeholders and nothing more. Are they only here so as to not rush the prospects like Benson, etc.

    Not doubt he was dealt a bad hand.

    No, they’re placeholders. The future up front, based on Holland’s past, is 97, 29 and 93 married to Benson, Marody, Yamamoto et cetera.

  11. bobinyvr says:

    Thanks Lowetide. I trust your analysis.

    It confirms why I feel somewhat underwhelmed by this offseason.

  12. slopitch says:

    I do think the oilers were right not buying from the ufa market

    Draft and develop can still be the primary growth strategy but i dont think the current roster is the plan for Holland or the oilers. I sure a heck aint buying my mini packs unless they get a F. They just need to look across the country to Dubas and the creativity and courage it took to make things happen. Im not talking about forcing another Chiarelli move either. There are opportunities on players like Gusev, Ehlers, Tyler Johnson and perhaps Taylor Hall. Just win the damn trade for once 🙂

  13. who says:

    bobinyvr:
    Lowetide, I would agree with your “start as you mean to go” characterization of Holland’s summer.

    But I find his verbiage on building a strong, long term, winning foundation at odds with signing a bunch of guys on one (and two) year deals.

    Do you think he expects any of Granland, Smith, Chiasson, Jurco to be around once they even make the playoffs let alone contend?

    Seems to me that all of them are placeholders and nothing more. Are they only here so as to not rush the prospects like Benson, etc.

    Not doubt he was dealt a bad hand.

    I don’t think his stated goals are at odds with what he has done.
    Yes, the 1 and 2 year signings are placeholder bets so he doesn’t have to rush the prospects. That indicates long range thinking to me.
    Signing a couple of UFAs for too much money and term would be a short term solution, in my opinion. The goal has to be to supplement McDavid and Drai with a bunch of talented forwards who are either on their ELCs, or locked into long term, team friendly, deals. You don’t find those guys on the UFA market.

  14. Nit64 says:

    Jethro Tull: If you want to sell the sausage, you have to know how to sell the sizzle. But, and this is the important part, at some point you actually have to produce the sausage….. – Sir Terry Pratchett.

    Cut Me Own Throat Chiarelli’s trades sometimes looked appetising. Therein lay their one and only charm.

  15. Admiral Ackbar says:

    If Holla in the business of dealing prospects? Still, it seems to me that Detroit had excelled in the competency of development which would yield extra value after the draft and thus reduce incentive to trade unproven (in the NHL) talent.

    The Oilers, unfortunately, don’t have that competency. We could then see more of an incentive to trade for immediate-use for futures, like prospects. Holla certainly isn’t shy at trading pucks. I’d speculate that, as an organization, Det always had confidence no matter where they were selecting in the draft.

    As an org, the Oilers aren’t the wings so I Hope past behaviour doesn’t anchor future behaviour too much.

  16. godot10 says:

    slopitch:
    I do think the oilers were right not buying from the ufa market

    Draft and develop can still be the primary growth strategy but i dont think the current roster is the plan for Holland or the oilers. I sure a heck aint buying my mini packs unless they get a F. They just need to look across the country to Dubas and the creativity and courage it took to make things happen. Im not talking about forcing another Chiarelli move either. There are opportunities on players like Gusev, Ehlers, Tyler Johnson and perhaps Taylor Hall. Just win the damn trade for once

    Lamorello and Dubas were the anti-Chiarelli. They didn’t trade a river pushing forward for a D. They kept all their draft picks. And they made do with a patchwork defense.

    The Taveres signing means they are bleeding assets now, and they are a team where there is nothing settled long term on the D except for Rielly. And they can’t afford to sign all the new D they acquired in the last year.

    So Dubas will be juggling next year.

    And Tavares might cost them Marner yet.

  17. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    I am convinced that this is a develop and assess year. Without blowing things up, there weren’t really a lot of options this year due to cap space. Holland has about 10-12 players to legitimately compete for the bottom 6 F (+2). By end of this year he will have seen enough to determine who stays in those roles for the next 2-5 years and who goes. At that point the D situation should also be much more clear. Then next summer, there will be more substantial moves and likely some upgrades to the top 6 F. I don’t hate this plan for this year, if they get it right for next 5 years.

  18. flyfish1168 says:

    If each brick represents a million bucks, Holland has to take down a few bricks and refit them before building it back up. It looks like Holland is still at the point of analyzing his bricks, measuring it twice and mortaring it once.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, that is an epic lead in to the blog – great stuff.

    “Holland represents a team whose fan base is beyond frustrated, and Holland appears to be the ultimate “start as you mean to go” personality type. He’s going to build this thing from the ground up, and that means draft and develop. Get good players, keep good players? You bet, starting at 18 years old. No shortcuts, beyond free agency next summer. Eat your breakfast, cows aren’t going to milk themselves.”

    ——————————————

    I agree that this is Holland’s plan – mostly.

    I agree that he’s going to draft and develop. I agree he’s going to “get good players” and “keep good players”.

    I don’t necessarily agree that means he is building from the ground up and we are waiting for the likes of Broberg to be a top 4 guy before we content.

    This off-season has been underwhelming, obviously – but that is becasue the fat is just too dense to get rid of. Chip away at the fat, it goes away more and more in the next few off-seasons and marinate around the edges.

    Fat falls away next off-season on its own and there is likely a greater ability to chip away at more (i.e. trade Russell).

    I truly believe the plan if to be a legit playoff team in the 2020/21 seasons and be a legit contender for the cup for the 2021/22 season and years to come.

    The draft and develop – the long-play with a pick like Broberg – is there to supplement and prolong the length of that window when it opens.

    Holland has a good young core – McDavid and Drai, obviously, supplemented by Nuge.

    Klef and Nurse, obviously, supplemented by Larsson.

    Klef at value for four more years – hey, when he needs to be re-uppped, perhaps one of Samorukov, Bouchard, Broberg are legit top pairing guys?

    Nurse will be expensive next season – perhaps Jones pops or Persson exceeds are wildest expectations?

    This season may resemble last season – if it does, oh well, there is a plan and it won’t take that long to bear the fruit.

    Yes, we’ve been fooled with “the plan” before, however, not from one of the more decorated GMs of all time and not with the legit depth of prospect this plan starts with.

    I’m excited for the future.

    I will bear some more pain because I’m on board.

    LETS DO THIS!

  20. HenryDrix says:

    If Yakupov and Jesse delivered on their draft rankings, we would be sitting very pretty at the moment.

  21. slopitch says:

    godot10: Lamorello and Dubas were the anti-Chiarelli.They didn’t trade a river pushing forward for a D.They kept all their draft picks.And they made do with a patchwork defense.

    The Taveres signing means they are bleeding assets now, and they are a team where there is nothing settled long term on the D except for Rielly.And they can’t afford to sign all the new D they acquired in the last year.

    So Dubas will be juggling next year.

    And Tavares might cost them Marner yet.

    Thats next years problem though. In the meantime they have a contender.

    Instead of moving players for futures, Dubas was creative and hustled his way to 4 moves, none of which ruined the team. The Marleau trade hurt but he didnt move our current river pushers. Id bet he finds a way. Meanwhile this team hasnt won a trade since Lubo. Lets get atter!

    I agree the plan is draft and develop but its not exclusive. Continually making moves to improve the roster should always be part of the equation. Calgary did well to move picks for Hamonic but draft well. I wouldnt move the 2020 1st but i do think there is a hybrid solution available

  22. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    IF JP does come back and IF he was given the opportunity to play with McD and they both have success (as past indicators suggest quite possible), how about this:

    JJ-McD-JP
    Nuge-Drai-Kass
    Granlund-Marody/Haas-Gag/Chia
    Turco/Nygard-Cave/Haas-Chia/Gag
    Lucic

    Benson and Gamb pushing up

    JJ has speed, can help with face-offs and forecheck like a demon and present a similar grit/deterrent like Kass does – and he has shown decent hands at times -better than Lucic for example…
    Moving Drai and Nuge together provides a legitimate 2nd line, Kass being the buzz saw, forecheck
    Veteran wing cover (some with C experience) helping the “new” 3C and 4C
    Survival of the fittest to see who stays. Nygard, Haas and Marody are Waiver exempt, so 2 of those 3 can go down to start the season, although Haas has no long term plans to play AHL, so his trip there would likely be brief.

    Klef-Lars
    Nurse-Benning
    Jones-Rusty/Persson

    I am convinced this is the 2nd pairing they should start season with, if Benning struggles it would be interesting to see Jones move to 2RD. He performed well in the third pairing, but was in over his head when they dumped him in the deep-end on 1st pairing (no surprise, of course).

    IF JP does not come back:

    Nuge-McD-Kass
    JJ-Drai-Chia
    Granlund-Marody/Haas-Gag
    Nygard/Lucic-Cave/Haas-Turco

    JJ and Drai have good numbers together.

  23. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    Thoughts on a 3-way?

    Looch to Van, Russell to Calgary

    Neal to Edm, Frolik to Van

    Sutter to Edm, Eriksson to Calgary?

    Plausible? Appealling to anyone?

  24. frjohnk says:

    I dont comment much these days as Im too busy in the summers but wanted to touch on the JP issue.

    2 years ago I would have agreed with most people that are saying “stick JP with McDavid cause he scores well with him.

    In 3 years, JP has played a total of 407 minutes with McDavid and totaled 6 goals and 8 assists. This works out to be 2.06 pts/60

    Hey, thats good right?

    Caggiula scored 2.36 pts/60 in 355 minutes with McDavid in 3 years
    Lucic in 3 years ( 969 mins) has scored 1.48 pts/60 with McDavid and Lucic is considered a black hole who can not score. Lucic scored 1.83 pts/60 in 98 minutes last year with McDavid.

    Last year
    Ty Rattie scored 1.72 pts/60 in 243 minutes with mcDavid
    Kassian scored 1.96 pts/60 in 428 minutes with McDavid

    These numbers are telling us the results of when two players are on the ice, but these numbers are not telling us how these players arrived at these numbers. The last part to me is key.

    Having been able to look at Sportloqiq data and feedback with video from a skills NHL analyst for a NHL player a few times over the last couple years and seeing how indepth hockey analytics has become ( its incredible) makes me want to understand how those players arrived at those numbers. Does not make me right and everyone else wrong, or vice versa, Im just looking at the situation differently and have more questions.

    I do think with the public data, we can scratch some of the surface but nothing that compares to the private data. For me, in this situation we can kind of parse this data with JP/McDavid when looking at the without individual numbers from those two and a few others. Like I said, its just scratching the surface but it gives us an idea. I would love to look at JP’s private data, I think it would show us that he is lacking in many areas that most top 6 players would be, but we dont know what we dont know.

    Numbers without McDavid
    In 3 years
    JP scored 0.84 pts/60 in 1219 minutes away from McDavid
    Caggs scored 0.94pts/60 in 1420 minutes away from McDavid
    Lucic scored 1.03 pts/60 in 2203 minutes away from mcDavid

    Last year

    Kassian WO McDavid scored 0.87 pts/60 in 620 minutes
    Rattie WO McDavid scored 0.67 pts/60 in 267 minutes

    Some other numbers with Cags
    Caggs scored 2.27 pts/60 in 251 minutes in Chicago with Kane.
    In 91 minutes he scored 0.64 pts/60

    McDavid lifts all boats. I think what we are seeing from these numbers is that all teams have “not top 6 players” who can score at decent rates when moved up to play with a superstar such as McDavid or Kane etc. But these numbers drop when these “not top 6 players” are away from the top line players. I believe JP fits in here.

    JP scoring at 2.06 pts/60 with McDavid looks decent from a far, but that is 14 points in 407 minutes. How many of those points who were the result of McDavid doing what he does with many other non top 6 options? IDK, but by looking at JP’s numbers without McDavid would suggest to me that JP was more along for the ride than doing any kind of driving.

    If one looks at how much has played with at least one of McDavid, Drai and or RNH, we find he has played 1010 minutes at 5 on 5 with at least one of these guys on the ice.

    He has played 614 minutes at 5 on 5 with none of these 3 guys on the ice.
    2.06pts/60 with mcDavid
    1.48 pts/60 with Drai
    1.04 pts/60 with RNH

    Nothing earth shattering and nothing different that many other players have done.

    Now with that said, I do think there is a case to be made that JP was dragged down due to poor linemates when in the bottom 6, ( worst bottom 6 in the league last year?) injuries, poor development plan, loss of confidence etc. I would love for the kid to cover some of his draft bet.

  25. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    I agree that this is Holland’s plan – mostly.

    I agree that he’s going to draft and develop.I agree he’s going to “get good players” and “keep good players”.

    I don’t necessarily agree that means he is building from the ground up and we are waiting for the likes of Broberg to be a top 4 guy before we content.

    This off-season has been underwhelming, obviously – but that is becasue the fat is just too dense to get rid of.Chip away at the fat, it goes away more and more in the next few off-seasons and marinate around the edges.

    Fat falls away next off-season on its own and there is likely a greater ability to chip away at more (i.e. trade Russell).

    I truly believe the plan if to be a legit playoff team in the 2020/21 seasons and be a legit contender for the cup for the 2021/22 season and years to come.

    A ton of money falls away next summer, but there’s also more than half a team to sign.

    Capfriendly lists $57M committed leading into 20-21. But that only covers 6 signed forwards, 3 defense and one goalie. 10 players cost $57M, the remaining 13 to fill the roster will cost $26M (assuming an $83M cap).

    Draisaitl-McDavid-???
    Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson
    Khaira-???-???

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-???

    Koskinen-???

    My guess is Nurse costs near $7M, so you’re down to $19M for 12 players, but you have the top 4 D covered at least (depending how you feel about Russell).

    If you fill in from the bottom of the roster at $1M per player.
    8 players at $1M ($8M)
    2 players at $2M ($4M)
    1 player at $3M
    1 player at $4M

    There’s maybe a little room to improve the team with that money. Though Kassian could be the $3M player if he continues to hang with Connor and Leon.

    The potential modest improvement above could all go sideways as well if Koskinen doesn’t prove he’s a starter. If he falls flat on his face a real goalie is going to eat a lot of the excess money.

    I guess all I’m saying is there isn’t as much excess money next off season as it might seem at first glance. I’m hopeful as always that improvements can be made, but it’s far from a lock this is a legit playoff team even in 20-21. If they are, much of the improvement will have to come from within since there’s not going to be a heck of a lot of money to bring in outside help. It seems like the situation might be only marginally better than this summer.

  26. Rube Foster says:

    dmjkrash:
    Magnus Pääjärvi is still a UFA that would cost us basically nothing and has lots of speed. Move Leon to right wing and put Magnus on the left with Connor.

    I’m all for signing Ultra Magnus on the cheap, he can still fly and would help our PK and bottom six. But projecting MPS as a top line winger is like believing Lucic is going to bounce back and score 20 goals.

  27. jp says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes:
    Thoughts on a 3-way?

    Looch to Van, Russell to Calgary

    Neal to Edm, Frolik to Van

    Sutter to Edm, Eriksson to Calgary?

    Plausible?Appealling to anyone?

    I need to break it down by team to follow it. So:

    Edmonton out:
    Lucic
    Russell

    Edmonton in:
    Neal
    Sutter

    Vancouver out:
    Eriksson
    Sutter

    Vancouver in:
    Lucic
    Frolik

    Calgary out:
    Frolik
    Neal

    Calgary in:
    Eriksson
    Russell

    I guess it at least somewhat plausible.

    Appealing? That’s not the feeling I get looking at this. I just feel yucky now thinking about this mess and all these meh options. Is Sutter supposed to be recovered from his injuries? Neal could have upside in the Oilers top 6 vs Lucic. Or not. I’m really not sure about that deal from an Oilers perspective. No cap savings. Shuffle the question marks?

    The Neal buyout is much more friendly. “Only” $1.917M for the next 8 yrs. Christ.

  28. defmn says:

    jp: A ton of money falls away next summer, but there’s also more than half a team to sign.

    Capfriendly lists $57M committed leading into 20-21. But that only covers 6 signed forwards, 3 defense and one goalie. 10 players cost $57M, the remaining 13 to fill the roster will cost $26M (assuming an $83M cap).

    Draisaitl-McDavid-???
    Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson
    Khaira-???-???

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-???

    Koskinen-???

    My guess is Nurse costs near $7M, so you’re down to $19M for 12 players, but you have the top 4 D covered at least (depending how you feel about Russell).

    If you fill in from the bottom of the roster at $1M per player.
    8 players at $1M ($8M)
    2 players at $2M ($4M)
    1 player at $3M
    1 player at $4M

    There’s maybe a little room to improve the team with that money. Though Kassian could be the $3M player if he continues to hang with Connor and Leon.

    The potential modest improvement above could all go sideways as well if Koskinen doesn’t prove he’s a starter. If he falls flat on his face a real goalie is going to eat a lot of the excess money.

    I guess all I’m saying is there isn’t as much excess money next off season as it might seem at first glance. I’m hopeful as always that improvements can be made, but it’s far from a lock this is a legit playoff team even in 20-21. If they are, much of the improvement will have to come from within since there’s not going to be a heck of a lot of money to bring in outside help. It seems like the situation might be only marginally better than this summer.

    Excellent analysis. And one of the reasons why Nurse may well be in play next summer depending on what the kids show this season and how much he wants on his next contract.

  29. JimmyV1965 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    IF JP does come back and IF he was given the opportunity to play with McD and they both have success (as past indicators suggest quite possible), how about this:

    JJ-McD-JP
    Nuge-Drai-Kass
    Granlund-Marody/Haas-Gag/Chia
    Turco/Nygard-Cave/Haas-Chia/Gag
    Lucic

    Benson and Gamb pushing up

    JJ has speed, can help with face-offs and forecheck like a demon and present a similar grit/deterrent like Kass does – and he has shown decent hands at times -better than Lucic for example…
    Moving Drai and Nuge together provides a legitimate 2nd line, Kass being the buzz saw, forecheck
    Veteran wing cover (some with C experience) helping the “new” 3C and 4C
    Survival of the fittest to see who stays. Nygard, Haas and Marody are Waiver exempt, so 2 of those 3 can go down to start the season, although Haas has no long term plans to play AHL, so his trip there would likely be brief.

    Klef-Lars
    Nurse-Benning
    Jones-Rusty/Persson

    I am convinced this is the 2nd pairing they should start season with, if Benning struggles it would be interesting to see Jones move to 2RD. He performed well in the third pairing, but was in over his head when they dumped him in the deep-end on 1st pairing (no surprise, of course).

    IF JP does not come back:

    Nuge-McD-Kass
    JJ-Drai-Chia
    Granlund-Marody/Haas-Gag
    Nygard/Lucic-Cave/Haas-Turco

    JJ and Drai have good numbers together.

    I’m not crapping on your lineup because it’s probably no worse than other options, but you have two guys playing with McDavid who scored a combined 7 goals last year. The pair have scored a grand total of 32 goals in 293 games. McDavid might be the best player in the world, but he really isn’t Jesus. I’m honestly not trying to be an ass because these guys would likely be no worse than Chiasson. For me, it was a gut punch reminder of how bad our wingers are.

  30. Bulging Twine says:

    Looking from a McDavid point of view

    The only FWs (who are still with the team) for which McDavid’s GF/60 was better with than without them:

    Draisattl
    Kassian
    Khaira

  31. Rube Foster says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    IF JP does come back and IF he was given the opportunity to play with McD and they both have success (as past indicators suggest quite possible), how about this:

    JJ-McD-JP
    Nuge-Drai-Kass
    Granlund-Marody/Haas-Gag/Chia
    Turco/Nygard-Cave/Haas-Chia/Gag
    Lucic

    Benson and Gamb pushing up

    JJ has speed, can help with face-offs and forecheck like a demon and present a similar grit/deterrent like Kass does – and he has shown decent hands at times -better than Lucic for example…
    Moving Drai and Nuge together provides a legitimate 2nd line, Kass being the buzz saw, forecheck
    Veteran wing cover (some with C experience) helping the “new” 3C and 4C
    Survival of the fittest to see who stays. Nygard, Haas and Marody are Waiver exempt, so 2 of those 3 can go down to start the season, although Haas has no long term plans to play AHL, so his trip there would likely be brief.

    Klef-Lars
    Nurse-Benning
    Jones-Rusty/Persson

    I am convinced this is the 2nd pairing they should start season with, if Benning struggles it would be interesting to see Jones move to 2RD. He performed well in the third pairing, but was in over his head when they dumped him in the deep-end on 1st pairing (no surprise, of course).

    IF JP does not come back:

    Nuge-McD-Kass
    JJ-Drai-Chia
    Granlund-Marody/Haas-Gag
    Nygard/Lucic-Cave/Haas-Turco

    JJ and Drai have good numbers together.

    Swap Granlund and JJ and that’s pretty much what I’d run with as well. For what it’s worth, the line-up with Jesse appears much stronger than the lineup without.

    If McDavid can produce offense with Jesse and a Granlund/JJ/Jurco/Nygard type it would not only be a testament to the Superstar that he is, it might just be the Oiler’s (assuming that Holland can bring in a legit 3rd line Center) best and only hope of contending for the second season.

    #InConnorWeTrust

  32. Bulging Twine says:

    The FWs with whom McDavid’s GA/60 were better with than without:

    Nuge
    Leon (about equal)
    Khaira
    Chiasson

  33. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not crapping on your lineup because it’s probably no worse than other options, but you have two guys playing with McDavid who scored a combined 7 goals last year.The pair have scored a grand total of 32 goals in 293 games. McDavid might be the best player in the world, but he really isn’t Jesus. I’m honestly not trying to be an ass because these guys would likely be no worse than Chiasson.For me, it was a gut punch reminder of how bad our wingers are.

    It is not my dream line up by any means – I’m with you in terms of the gut punch feeling, but there is possibility in could work. See Bulging Twine.
    I think getting “more” from the 2nd line is the bigger issue the team has and if there is a line combo with MCHezeus that could be comparable to having him paired with Drai, then I think overall there could be more good than bad.
    Also, at some point – Drai really has to be 2C

  34. jp says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Looking from a McDavid point of view

    The only players for which McDavid’s GF/60 was better with than without them:

    Draisattl
    Kassian
    Khaira

    If you look at the last 3 seasons combined, and include D, the list is much longer (restricting to players >100 minutes with):
    Slepyshev
    Caggiula
    Auvitu
    Benning
    Kassian
    Draisaitl
    Nurse
    Nuge
    Sekera
    Rattie
    Puljujarvi

    (Khaira hasn’t played quite 100 minutes with McDavid)

  35. Bulging Twine says:

    McDavid’s GF% was this much better playing with these guys:

    Draisattl 17.22!!
    Khaira 6.8

    Kassian .43

    For all others it was worse playing with them than without them

    It was so much better with Leon than without that one would have to break the numbers for others down to who played with Leon and Connor or just Connor without Leon but then you are running into even smaller sample sizes.

    This is shocking to me: McDavids GF% w/o Leon was 39.22
    Leon’s without Connor was 36.96
    please tell me I am not seeing something

  36. Oilman99 says:

    The Tyler Wright signing has me a little nervous, the Gretzky,Green team has done a better job over the past couple of years compared to Wright”s performance. Here’s hoping that the guys still have input, and are heard.

  37. jp says:

    So using the line tool properly (ie – not with individual scoring metrics):

    JP+McDavid+Lucic (253min):——3.32GF/60 1.42GA/60 (xGF 3.13, xGA 2.36)
    JP+McDavid no Lucic (155min):—3.88GF/60 3.49GA/60 (xGF 4.14, xGA 2.98)
    JP+Lucic noMcDavid (417min):—-1.29GF/60 2.01GA/60 (xGF 2.15, xGA 2.13)
    McDavid+Lucic noJP (717min):—–2.93GF/60 2.59GA/60 (xGF 2.64, xGA 2.23)
    JP noMcDavid noLucic (802min):–1.57GF/60 2.54GA/60 (xGF 1.89, xGA 2.41)

    McDavid without the other 2 (2897min):3.65GF/60 2.84GA/60 (xGF 2.87, xGA 2.60)
    Lucic without the other 2 (1785min):—-1.98GF/60 2.29GA/60 (xGF 2.21, xGA 2.41)

    So, Lucic-McDavid-JP was an exceptional line in their 250 minutes together, both in result and underlying numbers.

    McDavid was alright with each of JP and Lucic when the other wasn’t on the line, but those combos weren’t great.

    JP and Lucic both struggled without McDavid, JP more so. Without McDavid JP was better with Lucic than without.

    I’m having real trouble with the narrative that playing with Lucic has been a detriment to JP at all. I just don’t see it.

  38. bwar says:

    Ideal scenario would the Oiler’s trading Benning and Bear, then watching the pair become long term NHL fixtures for another team and having successful careers.

    Even with setbacks last year, Bear still scored at a higher rate than Jones, is a natural RD and had an okay run in the NHL two seasons ago. He might be the answer for the hole on the right side but has largely been eclipsed by Jones based on recent memory. And on top of all that Bear has a hell of a shot that could revamp the PP in a real hurry. Please don’t trade Bear!

    I’ve never been a huge Benning fan but he has been a very good third pairing player for us and I think all his stats back that up. He might be ready to leapfrog Russell onto the second pairing, which would be great to at least get Russell back onto his proper side. I would like to give Benning a sink or swim opportunity alongside Nurse to start the season. I believe he would fair better than Russell and if he can handle the role it really opens up opportunity to have a nice sheltered third pair to ease in some rookies.

  39. BONE207 says:

    Bulging Twine:

    This is shocking to me:McDavids GF% w/o Leon was 39.22
    Leon’s without Connor was 36.96
    please tell me I am not seeing something

    Well I would say that what you’re not seeing, is that there are no others on the team that can help boost production with 2 of the best players on the planet.

    They might be better off using those hockey pass rubber things to deflect their feeds. Anyone with some slightly used blow up dolls for left wing?

  40. Bulging Twine says:

    It appears that McDavid and Draisattl should play together and in not a large sample size Khaira is a benefit there.

    So if that’s your first line,

    constructing a second line around Nuge – who had the best GF% last season playing with Nuge while not playing with either Leon or McDavid?

    Kassian 75% in 91:42
    Lucic 66.67% in 205:43

    They only played 18:43 together as a line but scored 4 and didn’t allow any.

    Kassian and Lucic played 204:01 together last year without either Leon or McDavid and were an even 50%. That’s something.

  41. Andy Dufresne says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes:
    Thoughts on a 3-way?

    Looch to Van, Russell to Calgary

    Neal to Edm, Frolik to Van

    Sutter to Edm, Eriksson to Calgary?

    Plausible?Appealling to anyone?

    I LOVE it for Edmonton.

    Which tells me one or both of the other teams would need more.

    But its a cool idea / out of the box thinking.

  42. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Looking from a McDavid point of view

    The only FWs (who are still with the team) for which McDavid’s GF/60 was better with than without them:

    Draisattl
    Kassian
    Khaira

    This is what was missing from FrJohns post.

    This is very important IMO.

    Plus Kassian adds that ‘edge” to the line. He can stick his glove in Tkachuks and Kadris face when its needed.

  43. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    Andy Dufresne: I LOVE it for Edmonton.

    Which tells me one or both of the other teams would need more.

    But its a cool idea / out of the box thinking.

    The money is very similar and potentially addresses 2 of the most glaring needs, while essentially losing not a lot, IMO. Neal and Sutter are also both volume shooters, so they could bring a lot to the team, if they are able to bounce back.

    As well, Neal has not been much of a PP producer, so if he is given 1PP time, he could have a decent season or 2.

    Living in Calgary the “trade Frolik” narrative has been ongoing for at least 2 years and the past year so has “trade Brodie”. So I formulated this proposal in early May after connecting all these dots (Brodie out/Russell in).

    Not sure if there is an appetite in Calgary for Eriksson, though.

  44. JimmyV1965 says:

    Oilman99:
    The Tyler Wright signing has me a little nervous, the Gretzky,Greenteam has done a better job over the past couple of years compared to Wright”s performance. Here’s hoping that the guys still have input, and are heard.

    The Wings 2018 draft was amazing. They had some luck there, but that one draft could set them up for years.

  45. Bulging Twine says:

    gf% and ice time not playing with any of the big 3:

    Currie– – 62.50 — 163.24
    Gagner– 62.50 — 122.42
    Lucic — 42.86 — 521:37
    Cave— – 40.00 — 318:40
    Chiasson– 33.33 –111:25
    Kassian– 32.35 — 460:58
    Brodziak– 30.00 –631:51
    Khaira– – 29.63 — 374:09
    Jesse—- 12.50 — 193:06

  46. Rugbypig says:

    dmjkrash,

    Magnus Pääjärvi – 11 goals in a season is his max
    No way that is a good idea.

  47. deardylan says:

    Watching the Oilers Getting Made

    The idea is that if people watched how Oilers got made, they would probably be way less fond of them. There are unpleasant truths about it that emerge and make it much less appealing to continue to consume the Oilers end product and watch any of the games.

    There are some addicted to watching the sausage being made and to self-flagellation themselves even more by watching the preseasoned sausage being made.

    Wonder how Beyond Oilers Sausages are made?

    PS. This blog is a sausage party

    I will be back for more sausage making today and tomorrow… 🙂

  48. Bulging Twine says:

    Looking more at that first line, if McDavid and Draisattl are going to play together then I should really look at who had the best GF% with both of them, not just McDavid.

    only chiasson and kassian got meaningful time with those two and Chiasson’s GF% was better:

    58.33
    54.76

    Khaira didn’t get many minutes with them but did well with just McDavid in limited minutes (64:34).

    So either Chiasson or Khaira on the big line
    and Kassian with Nuge on the second

    according to GF% last year

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, Kris Russell is the ideal disposition target – we’ve know this for months and months and months.

    It gets a bit riskier with Sekera no longer around but, if $4M in cap space can be acquired, it must be done – be it today, in August, in November or next off-season.

    There is talk about all this cap space next off-season but its not really the case. They have 10 current roster players signed and will have apx $25M – so $25M for 13 spots. Nurse takes up apx $7M so $18M for 12 spots.

    I anticipate the Kassian’s and Gagner’s of the team are repalced with ELC contracts – McLeod, Benson, Maksimov, Yamamoto, etc. or cheap 2nd contracts (Marody, etc). We need the same on the back-end and Kris Russell, while he may be here for 2019/20, cannot be on this roster for 2020/21.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull:
    Lowetide,

    We’ll, if everyone is paying those prices, then those are the prices.

    Agreed it was a weak crop of UFAs. But that’s when the creative juices need to flow.

    My take is that if this indeed a write off year, then clean house. The pick should have been used to move Lucic, a la Marleau, still buyout Sekera if you must, still sign those bit part players. I liked the Jurco bet. Not the Smith.

    I doubt the 8th overall would have been enough to move Lucic – maybe if we also retained $3M but then I’m not even sure.

    That contract is currently untradeable – well, not with absolutely egregious pain that simply isn’t an option.

    Its full on “Lucic bounce back” time – 12G/30P – lets see some solid Louie Eriksson level production then we can talk next off-season about slightly less egregious pain and if it makes sense.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    dmjkrash:
    Magnus Pääjärvi is still a UFA that would cost us basically nothing and has lots of speed. Move Leon to right wing and put Magnus on the left with Connor.

    I’d be just fine with Magnus back and, in fact, he was a target of mine heading in to free agency. With that said, I’m not sure we need to add another 4th liner given what we have acquired.

    At this point, Brassard on a 1 year deal is something I’d have some interest in. Given how awful he was last year, I don’t give a 2nd year but I’d kick the tires.

    Sheehan, Lindberg, Boyle, Marleau – trade for Eakin (and/or Gusev), etc.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I don’t know. I feel like the Nyqvist deal, if signed by Edmonton would have caused outrage, too. For me, Holland needs to acquire a scoring winger and a No. 3 center in order to give this team a fighting chance. However, I don’t have an issue with his not giving Nyqvist that term (term being the bigger issue).

    At this point, I think the 3C is the target and I’m going to put my money on Benson as the scoring (producing) winger.

    Yes, I know, not a great idea for a rookie to play 30% plus of his time against elites, however the league is littered with young players on their ELCs producing in the top 6 – maybe its our turn?

  53. Victoria Oil says:

    defmn: Excellent analysis. And one of the reasons why Nurse may well be in play next summer depending on what the kids show this season and how much he wants on his next contract.

    If the choice next summer is signing Darnell for $7 mln or trading him. I think you have to trade him, especially if our D-prospects are starting to perculate.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    bwar:
    Ideal scenario would the Oiler’s trading Benning and Bear, then watching the pair become long term NHL fixtures for another team and having successful careers.

    Even with setbacks last year, Bear still scored at a higher rate than Jones, is a natural RD and had an okay run in the NHL two seasons ago.He might be the answer for the hole on the right side but has largely been eclipsed by Jones based on recent memory.And on top of all that Bear has a hell of a shot that could revamp the PP in a real hurry.Please don’t trade Bear!

    I’ve never been a huge Benning fan but he has been a very good third pairing player for us and I think all his stats back that up.He might be ready to leapfrog Russell onto the second pairing, which would be great to at least get Russell back onto his proper side.I would like to give Benning a sink or swim opportunity alongside Nurse to start the season.I believe he would fair better than Russell and if he can handle the role it really opens up opportunity to have a nice sheltered third pair to ease in some rookies.

    I will give you a few things:

    – Bears’ goal share numbers last year do shine

    – His shot is a weapon

    On the first point, as compared with Jones, please realize that Jones played top pairing essentially all season long. I don’t have time against elites and other QoC data for the AHL but my assumption is that the quality Jones face exceeds Bear be a material margin.

    I watched ALOT of the the Condors last year and the issues that Bear had as the AHL level mirror those that he had at the NHL level a few years back. He has issues with speed – both handling it off the rush and with puck retrieval. He also has issues with size and generally with battles in the defensive zone.

    He is able to get through these deficiencies as the AHL level because, well, because its the AHL but they killed him in the NHL a few years ago and haven’t improved materially.

    I will disagree with you about him being OK at the NHL level during his cup of coffee – he wasn’t, in my opinion – he made the odd sexy play because he can pass the puck, however, he got caved – game in and game out and shift in and shift out.

    His shot is indeed a weapon, 100% – that will be one thing that could get him too or keep him in the NHL as he could be a PP specialist but, at this point, I’m not sure he can handle the sheltered 3rd pairing minutes he’d need to in order to become that PP specialist.

    I’m not trying to rag on Bear – I like the person and I do like the player but I worry because I haven’t seen him improve in the major deficiency areas over the last year or so.

  55. Victoria Oil says:

    deardylan:
    Watching the Oilers Getting Made

    The idea is that if people watched how Oilers got made, they would probably be way less fond of them. There are unpleasant truths about it that emerge and make it much less appealing to continue to consume the Oilers end product and watch any of the games.

    There are some addicted to watching the sausage being made and to self-flagellation themselves even more by watching the preseasoned sausage being made.

    Wonder how Beyond Oilers Sausages are made?

    PS. This blog is a sausage party

    I will be back for more sausage making today and tomorrow…

    At least once a day, I go to oilerhockey.com to scan the Oilers blogs. Nine times out of 10, I can tell the Lowetide article from the title, since the other blog titles tend to lack imagination.

    Today’s ‘Watching the Sausage Get Made’ title is one of the classics. Another reason why LT’s blog is the best.

  56. godot10 says:

    Victoria Oil: If the choice next summer is signing Darnell for $7 mln or trading him. I think you have to trade him, especially if our D-prospects are starting to perculate.

    The moment you trade Nurse is the same moment you will begin to regret doing it. You can’t keep starting over. McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse. Trade any, and you are starting over again.

    The only way it doesn’t turn out badly is if another GM makes a mistake.

  57. Rube Foster says:

    jp: without

    JP
    ArmChair
    FrJohn

    Great work digging into the Puljujarvi WOWY data and Jesses’s offensive production. Thank you.

    JP, with respect, I believe that you’re asking and then trying to answer the wrong question with your data mining.

    The question should be less about how does Lucic impact Jesse’s production. The question should be how can the Oilers best maximize Jesse offense potential so as to restablish and best maximize his value as an asset.

    About Milan. I am one of Milan Lucic’s harshest critics in this place. To be fair to Milan, the math demonstrates that he can saw off the opposition and the puck is generally going the right way when he is on the ice. The math also demonstrates that he is a very poor producer of 5 on 5 offense, and has been for a number of seasons. Simply stated, Milan Lucic, is an older player who’s speed and offensive skills have clearly declined to the point where can NOT contribute the 5 on 5 offensive production required by an average NHL third liner. Milan Lucic should not be in the conversation when it comes to the composition of the Oilers top nine, let alone how to structure a competive top six.

    If Milan played 8 to 9 minutes a night for the Oilers on a tough, hard to play against, grinding fourth line that didn’t give anything away for free – and if he was paid $1.5M or less, I’d be very happy to have him on the Oilers.

    Back to Puljujarvi. The numbers establish that McDavid floats all boats. The numbers further demonstrate that Jesse is one of the boats that McDavid floats, and floats well!

    Your numbers support the hypothesis that 20 games of McDavid and Puljujarvi should deliver good to excellent offensive results. Your numbers further demonstrate that playing with McDavid would be the optimal opportunity for Puljujarvi to restablsh himself as an offensive producer in the NHL.

    There is the answer to the question that I hope Ken Holland is asking.

  58. Rube Foster says:

    Bulging Twine:
    It appears that McDavid and Draisattl should play together and in not a large sample size Khaira is a benefit there.

    So if that’s your first line,

    constructing a second line around Nuge – who had the best GF% last season playing with Nuge while not playing with either Leon or McDavid?

    Kassian 75% in 91:42
    Lucic 66.67% in 205:43

    They only played 18:43 together as a line but scored 4 and didn’t allow any.

    Kassian and Lucic played 204:01 together last year without either Leon or McDavid and were an even 50%.That’s something.

    I appreciate the gymnastics that you and many others are trying to do with this line-up.

    Our problem is, you might be right. And, if your are right then Lucic – Nuge – Kassian have the potential to be the worst 5 on 5 scoring second line in the NHL.

    If our second line isn’t scoring goals, how are we supposed to generate offense when Connor isn’t on the ice?

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    I assume Karpat holds Puljujarvi’s Liiga league rights but who is it the holds his KHL rights? Is it Jokerit in the KHL?

    Either way, if he is going to head to either of those leagues, one would think it would happen within the next few weeks – they start their seasons much earlier.

    At this point, I’m thinking there may actually be a chance that Jesse signs with the Oilers as I really don’t see a trade happening – the trade value around the league clearly isn’t there and Holland clearly isn’t going to trade him for the sake of it.

    What I think may be interesting as well is, if the does sign, what’s the cap hit. I’m thinking if he would have negotiated in good faith prior to his agent spouting off, he’d get a standard pedigree bump and could have signed for apx $1.25M – that may still be the case but I’m wondering if Holland digs in now ?and essentially says, sign the QO ($874,125) or sit?

    Anyways, that’s just me thinking.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    With Tyler Wright coming in to lead the amateur scouting and work with Gretzky, Bob Green’s place in the organization is up in the air. Hopefully he remains involved in the amateur scouting and draft as I think he’s done a solid job with Keith Gretzky.

    CTS will be very happy that it looks like Mike Chiarelli, is being shown the door – Mathesson suggests he may end up in Minnesota.

    I think Duane Sutter, on the pro scouting side is out completely.

    Looking forward to seeing what Archie Henderson can do – this verbal on the Gregor show earlier this week was a nice listen.

  61. Bulging Twine says:

    Rube Foster: I appreciate the gymnastics that you and many others are trying to do with this line-up.

    Our problem is, you might be right. And, if your are right then Lucic – Nuge – Kassian have the potential to be the worst 5 on 5 scoringsecond line in the NHL.

    If our second line isn’t scoring goals, how are we supposed to generate offense when Connor isn’t on the ice?

    We just don’t have the soldiers unless there is a surprise breakout performer (Benson? JP? Marody?)

    or the goal is a 2-1 win with connor and Leon scoring

  62. Rube Foster says:

    Bulging Twine: We just don’t have the soldiers unless there is a surprise breakout performer (Benson?JP?Marody?)

    or the goal is a 2-1 win with connor and Leon scoring

    I’m pretty sure that was Hitchcock’s plan last year… how’d that work out for us? 🙂

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The moment you trade Nurse is the same moment you will begin to regret doing it.You can’t keep starting over. McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse.Trade any, and you are starting over again.

    The only way it doesn’t turn out badly is if another GM makes a mistake.

    Very likely the case.

    I truly see 22 min 2LD potential in Willie Lagesson – I truly think he’ll prove ready for 3LD this season and could become that player within a few years.

    If two of Samorukov, Lagesson, Jones do “make it” and actually make it to the top 4 then, ya, we’ll be able to trade either from the incumbent (Nurse/Klef) or the youngster. We aren’t there now and are unlikely to be there in a year, however, in a year we’ll start to get a clearer picture with the chances of those three plus Bouch (plus Bear) being legit NHL players and their ceilings.

    Keep the 25 year old veterans for now and re-evaluate when there is a real battle for top 4 ice.

    Darnell is going to get paid next year and we’ll deal with it – Russell will be gone (hopefully clean) and replaced by an ELC – boom, Darnell’s raise.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    BulgingTwine: We just don’t have the soldiers unless there is a surprise breakout performer (Benson?JP?Marody?)

    or the goal is a 2-1 win with connor and Leon scoring

    Would Benson being able to put up 40-50 points with material top 6 and middle 6 ice be that unreasonable to hope for?

    I mean, ELC forwards (not top 15 picks, not 1st round picks) are material contributors to team’s offence throughout the league – maybe its our turn?

    Benson is a highly skilled buy – once a potential high end pick prior to injuries. He’s healthy now, he’s regaining his offensive mojo.

    Maybe he pops?

  65. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Bulging Twine: We just don’t have the soldiers unless there is a surprise breakout performer (Benson?JP?Marody?)

    or the goal is a 2-1 win with connor and Leon scoring

    I think they need 2-3 breakout performances. A RHD, a LW and a RW. That’s why they’re so far out of the playoff picture and why, despite sometimes heroic performances by guys playing above their expected ceiling (Kassian, JJ) they consistently look like they’re barely holding it together on the ice.

  66. defmn says:

    godot10: The moment you trade Nurse is the same moment you will begin to regret doing it.You can’t keep starting over. McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse.Trade any, and you are starting over again.

    The only way it doesn’t turn out badly is if another GM makes a mistake.

    Oh, I have no doubt that trading Nurse would involve regret. I am also pretty certain that signing Nurse for $7 mil per year would involve regret.

    The numbers are the numbers though and because this team has been so bad for so long at drafting and developing there is no pipeline of inexpensive ELC contracts to balance out the cap numbers. That and bad contracts that will be on the books for several more years are going to make next season tight for money as well. If Benson becomes a legitimate top six player this year that helps but if the equation next summer is $7 mil for Darnell or a true top six winger I suspect the pendulum swings towards the winger.

    Not saying I like it. Just saying we have not finished paying for the sins of our past.

  67. Admiral Ackbar says:

    defmn: Oh, I have no doubt that trading Nurse would involve regret. I am also pretty certain that signing Nurse for $7 mil per year would involve regret.

    The numbers are the numbers though and because this team has been so bad for so long at drafting and developing there is no pipeline of inexpensive ELC contracts to balance out the cap numbers. That and bad contracts that will be on the books for several more years are going to make next season tight for money as well. If Benson becomes a legitimate top six player this year that helps but if the equation next summer is $7 mil for Darnell or a true top six winger I suspect the pendulum swings towards the winger.

    Not saying I like it. Just saying we have not finished paying for the sins of our past.

    Great post!

  68. dessert1111 says:

    The way I see it, there are seven roster spots open at the moment – 2-3 D and 4-5 F.

    The locks:

    McDavid
    Draisalt
    RNH
    Chiasson
    Kassian
    Gagner
    Khaira
    Granlund
    Lucic

    Klefbom
    Larsson
    Nurse
    Russell
    Benning

    Koskinen
    Smith

    Leaving the following players battling for a spot:

    Nygard
    Haas
    Brodziak
    Cave
    Jurco
    Benson
    Marody
    Gambardella
    Currie
    P. Russell
    Yamamoto

    Jones
    Persson
    Manning
    Bear
    Lagesson
    Bouchard

    I think the team has great competition for their fourth line and bottom defense pair. Problem is, for forwards, there are basically three guys who are top line performers and a bunch of good to mediocre fourth liners, and for defense, good second and third pairing players but no obvious good top pairing guys. And goaltending might be the biggest concern of all.

    There are enough question marks that if almost everything hits, it could be a good team, but the right bet is that this team, as currently constructed and what can be reasonably projected from here, is bottom third in the league.

    I am expect a boring summer and fall playing the waiting game and a mostly mediocre year, save the dazzling talents of the top performers, and hope to be pleasantly surprised and entertained.

  69. Bulging Twine says:

    Rube Foster: I’m pretty sure that was Hitchcock’s plan last year… how’d that work out for us?

    many a coaches dream – the 2-1 win

    just for the record, i am not advocating anything, just sharing what the GF% top 6 looks like based on last season

    Now, if it’s offence from the Nuge line that you want: looking at players who played with Nuge more than 100 minutes last season and ignoring GA, here are their GF/60 while on ice together:

    Draisattl 4.05 — 118:27
    Lucic —3.68 — 211:54
    Kassian 3.24 — 185:03
    JP ——-2.73 —- 241:46
    Khaira —2.37 — 177:19
    Gagnrrr -2.37 —–126:43
    Chiasson 1.66 — 289:31 –> kryptonite

  70. pts2pndr says:

    slopitch: Thats next years problem though. In the meantime they have a contender.

    Instead of moving players for futures, Dubas wascreative and hustled his way to 4 moves, none of which ruined the team. The Marleau trade hurt but he didnt move our current river pushers. Id bet he finds a way. Meanwhile this team hasnt won a trade since Lubo. Lets get atter!

    I agree the plan is draft and develop but its not exclusive. Continually making moves to improve the roster should always be part of the equation. Calgary did well to move picks for Hamonic but draft well. I wouldnt move the 2020 1st but i do think there is a hybrid solution available

    According the the center of the universe media contender. Without a legitimate top four D and depending on Marner I would argue more pretender than contender. All that glitters is at times fools gold!

  71. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar: Would Benson being able to put up 40-50 points with material top 6 and middle 6 ice be that unreasonable to hope for?

    I mean, ELC forwards (not top 15 picks, not 1st round picks) are material contributors to team’s offence throughout the league – maybe its our turn?

    Benson is a highly skilled buy – once a potential high end pick prior to injuries.He’s healthy now, he’s regaining his offensive mojo.

    Maybe he pops?

    That would be great! What a major development that would be on a team that desperately needs top 6 wingers. I agree with LT, he’ll go as far as his boots take him. He’s got everything else.
    So intrigued to see what next year looks like for him.

    Maybe he’ll rise like Benson the butler
    :https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078569/

  72. pts2pndr says:

    Victoria Oil: If the choice next summer is signing Darnell for $7 mln or trading him. I think you have to trade him, especially if our D-prospects are starting to perculate.

    He shouldn’t be traded until someone is able to adequately replace him. Starting to peculate is strictly subjective and subject to a large margin of error. Please see Petry for a third round draft choice.

  73. Bulging Twine says:

    Assembling a top 6 from this bunch is like putting a puzzle together without all the pieces

  74. defmn says:

    pts2pndr: He shouldn’t be traded until someone is able to adequately replace him. Starting to peculate is strictly subjective and subject to a large margin of error. Please see Petry for a third round draft choice.

    I don’t think anybody is advocating making a bad trade.

    I do think that $7 mil is first pair money so for me to commit to that contract I have to be convinced that Nurse is a dominant first pair dman or will be in the near future.

    He has this year to make that case.

  75. jp says:

    Rube Foster: JP
    ArmChair
    FrJohn

    Great work digging into thePuljujarvi WOWY data and Jesses’s offensive production. Thank you.

    JP, with respect,I believe that you’re asking and then trying to answer the wrong question with your data mining.

    The question should be less about how does Lucic impact Jesse’s production. The question should behow can the Oilers best maximize Jesse offense potential so as to restablish and best maximize his value as an asset.

    About Milan.I am one of Milan Lucic’s harshest critics in this place. To be fair to Milan, the math demonstrates that he can saw off the opposition and the puck is generally going the right way when he is on the ice. The math also demonstrates that he is a very poor producer of 5 on 5 offense, and has been for a number of seasons. Simply stated, Milan Lucic, is an older player who’s speed and offensive skills have clearly declined to the point where can NOT contribute the 5 on 5 offensive production required by an average NHL third liner. Milan Lucic should not be in the conversation when it comes to the composition of the Oilers top nine, let alone how to structure a competive top six.

    If Milan played 8 to 9 minutes a night for the Oilers on a tough, hard to play against, grinding fourth line that didn’t give anything away for free – and if he was paid $1.5M or less, I’d be very happy to have him on the Oilers.

    Back to Puljujarvi. The numbers establish that McDavid floats all boats. The numbers further demonstrate that Jesse is one of the boats that McDavid floats, and floats well!

    Your numbers support the hypothesis that 20 games of McDavid and Puljujarvi should deliver good to excellent offensive results. Your numbers further demonstrate that playing with McDavid would be the optimal opportunity for Puljujarvi to restablsh himself as an offensive producer in the NHL.

    There is the answer to the question that I hope Ken Holland is asking.

    My delve into this began in response to your comment yesterday that ended:

    “Can we all agree that the reason Strome and Puljujarvi did not produce any offence for the first 20 games of the seasons was that they were lugging around the offensive black hole that is Milan Lucic?

    Or are we going to run Jesse out of town like we did Strome, for the crime of not being able to score goals in the NHL whilst playing with Milan Lucic?

    The moral of the story – who you play with matters in the NHL.If we want to unlock the offensive potential of Jesse Puljujarvi the Oilers have a very unique silver bullet,his name is Connor McDavid.”

    That comment was far more about Lucic than it was about McDavid, basically blaming any and all struggles that JP and Strome had last year on Lucic. Blaming Lucic when one of his linemates is struggling is a very common refrain around here, which for the most part is not based on facts.

    I’m not sure I agree with your assessment of Lucic in your most recent post either, at least not in comparison with the other options available. The numbers bulging twine posted above don’t say “keep Lucic out of the top 9” to me:
    “Currie– – 62.50 — 163.24
    Gagner– 62.50 — 122.42
    Lucic — 42.86 — 521:37
    Cave— – 40.00 — 318:40
    Chiasson– 33.33 –111:25
    Kassian– 32.35 — 460:58
    Brodziak– 30.00 –631:51
    Khaira– – 29.63 — 374:09
    Jesse—- 12.50 — 193:06”
    They kinda look like they say that Lucic was very clearly among the Oilers best 9 forwards last year, as hard as that is to believe.

    If we’re asking what’s best for JP, then clearly it’s playing with McDavid, no question. The same can be said for basically any Oiler though. The rub with JP has been that he has essentially ONLY played well with McDavid, which is a tough spot for the Oilers.

    I’m all for giving JP 20 games with McDavid to see if it works, and hopefully get his game on track. I also don’t think that revisiting the Lucic-McDavid-JP trio would be the worst thing in the world either (though both Lucic and JP were terrible with McDavid in limited minutes last season). Re-establishing some value for Lucic would be huge for the Oilers also.

  76. rickithebear says:

    Last few weeks I have changed the distinction of my work.

    Yes LT
    Observation & Data is the process.
    You develop theories.
    Repetition of multiple season data proves your theories.
    That is were all my theorems come from.

    Like
    -High/ low danger shot
    – High Danger shot area.
    -Elite HD SH Dmen
    -Table hockey Goalie movement
    -Open/Closed shot
    -0% Corsi
    -Elite 0% corsi dmen
    -Dmen establish the Open HD SH Save% baseline a goalie performs around
    -Elite Open HD SH dmen/ pairs
    -Forward establish Corsi rates thru entry ratevrestriction thru NZ traps.
    – rovers create a 3-1-1-1 structure.
    -Rovers have 1/4 the success rate at generating EVG than forward.
    -Rovers cause high Corsi rates by not allowing Fwd NZ traps and a Dpair to press the blue.
    -Rover 3-1-1-1 abandonment of HD area yields the highest rate of open HD shot rates.
    -Rovers 3-1-1-1 abandonment of HD area creates the lowest Open HD save% baseline for goalies to perform around.
    -Elite +ve Open SH save% goalies.

    -Each fwd have their own expected goal mass over a career
    -Each Dman has their own open HD SH density per corsi to their side over a career.
    -Each goalie has their own open HD save % +ve or -ve over a career.

    -Their is no such thing as a move to a league average for any individual player.
    -PDO is a simplistic constructive narative with no merit at an individual analytic measure level.
    It fails to hold.
    Taking 2 league averages when their are 3 separate that exist for fwd, Dmen, Goalies makes it invalid.

    – Bench change with or without pocession is the biggest ZS affect on players entry, corsi rates.
    – Ability to run a fwd NZ trap is the biggest non zone start on a players entry, Corsi rates.
    – 3D situation performance averages is the lowest variable analysis with accurate performance value.
    Team, comp, ZS.

    – Cup core roster structure.
    High% of championships won by cup core rosters over last 25 years.
    Only 2 teams have won championships without injury or Ref influence.
    2008 Penguins
    2009 Penguins
    Carolina beat
    Buffalo who lost 3 HD dmen in East Conf final.
    Edmonton who lost a top 10 open HD goalie Rollie.
    Had to go with sub top 30 open HD save% goalies Conklin, Markannen.
    Florida advanced to Cuo final with strong EV goal fwd depth, and top 3 open HD def structure topped by one of the 2 Origional table hockey movement goalies JVB.
    -Top GA teams advance to final 4 at a substantionally higher % than GF teams.

    That is just 26 of the 40+ theorems that repeat themselves.

    The latest theory that interests me is
    – some forwards adjust their open space targeting when they move from 3-2-1 to 3-1-1-1 structures.
    – if they do, what type are they. Suspect less mobile.

  77. texmex says:

    Jordan binnington AAV $4.4m.

    What’s Koskinen make again? 😳

  78. rickithebear says:

    The real story of Jesse Puljujarvi.
    From the point we drafted him.
    I have allways pointed out his very poor shot density.
    His career 7.4% is reflective of that.

    He was one of only 3 18 yr old WJC MVP’s
    He generated 5 G and 12A

    He is a great passer of the puck.
    Would prefer to see him work on his shot to develop the ability to better generate an elevated shot for open space targeting on net.
    I would like to see him work on F.O.
    So we can move him to a center position.
    Were he is better suited to for his distribution skills.

    7% sh density players do not survive as top 6 forwards unless they have high DZ start goal diff skill.

  79. Rebillled says:

    If there’s something in the water and they’ve been carrying water and chopping wood.

    Chop water.

  80. rickithebear says:

    pts2pndr: He shouldn’t be traded until someone is able to adequately replace him. Starting to peculate is strictly subjective and subject to a large margin of error. Please see Petry for a third round draft choice.

    You act like trading a non top open shot HD dman so you can get a top 10 open HD sh save% goalie that is part of almost every conf & cup champion over the last 25 years is a bad thing.

  81. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    The real story of Jesse Puljujarvi.
    From the point we drafted him.
    I have allways pointed out his very poor shot density.
    His career 7.4% is reflective of that.

    He was one of only 3 18 yr old WJC MVP’s
    He generated 5 G and 12A

    He is a great passer of the puck.
    Would prefer to see him work on his shot to develop the ability to better generate an elevated shot for open space targeting on net.
    I would like to see him work on F.O.
    So we can move him to a center position.
    Were he is better suited to for his distribution skills.

    7% sh density players do not survive as top 6 forwards unless they have high DZ start goal diff skill.

    Could you give us some context on what a good/normal shot density is for reference?

    Best/worst in the league? Some of the other Oilers numbers? Anything for some sort of frame of reference?

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Admiral Ackbar: I think they need 2-3 breakout performances. A RHD, a LW and a RW.That’s why they’re so far out of the playoff picture and why, despite sometimes heroic performances by guys playing above their expected ceiling (Kassian, JJ) they consistently look like they’re barely holding it together on the ice.

    Benning be able to handle 2RD minutes and play a full season doing so.

    Benson

    Puljujarvi

    Lets do this!

  83. Rube Foster says:

    jp: My delve into this began in response to your comment yesterday that ended:

    “Can we all agree that the reason Strome and Puljujarvi did not produce any offence for the first 20 games of the seasons was that they were lugging around the offensive black hole that is Milan Lucic?

    Or are we going to run Jesse out of town like we did Strome, for the crime of not being able to score goals in the NHL whilst playing with Milan Lucic?

    The moral of the story – who you play with matters in the NHL.If we want to unlock the offensive potential of Jesse Puljujarvi the Oilers have a very unique silver bullet,his name is Connor McDavid.”

    That comment was far more about Lucic than it was about McDavid, basically blaming any and all struggles that JP and Strome had last year on Lucic. Blaming Lucic when one of his linemates is struggling is a very common refrain around here, which for the most part is not based on facts.

    I’m not sure I agree with your assessment of Lucic in your most recent post either, at least not in comparison with the other options available. The numbers bulging twine posted above don’t say “keep Lucic out of the top 9” to me:
    “Currie– – 62.50 — 163.24
    Gagner– 62.50 — 122.42
    Lucic — 42.86 — 521:37
    Cave— – 40.00 — 318:40
    Chiasson– 33.33 –111:25
    Kassian– 32.35 — 460:58
    Brodziak– 30.00 –631:51
    Khaira– – 29.63 — 374:09
    Jesse—- 12.50 — 193:06”
    They kinda look like they say that Lucic was very clearly among the Oilers best 9 forwards last year, as hard as that is to believe.

    If we’re asking what’s best for JP, then clearly it’s playing with McDavid, no question. The same can be said for basically any Oiler though. The rub with JP has been that he has essentially ONLY played well with McDavid, which is a tough spot for the Oilers.

    I’m all for giving JP 20 games with McDavid to see if it works, and hopefully get his game on track. I also don’t think that revisiting the Lucic-McDavid-JP trio would be the worst thing in the world either (though both Lucic and JP were terrible with McDavid in limited minutes last season). Re-establishing some value for Lucic would be huge for the Oilers also.

    JP great job with the numbers! I sincerely appreciate your work!

    I will not argue with math, I will point out however that just because Math places Lucic in the top nine of Edmonton Oilers forward’s 2018/19 results does not correlate to Milan Lucic being a top nine forward on an above average NHL team.

    If the Oilers goal is to be better this year than last, Milan Lucic should not play top nine minutes.

    And, I do believe it is more than just Coincedence and luck that Strome managed 1 goal in 23 games stapled to Milan Lucic and then somehow was able to score 18 goals the rest of the way in Rangers silks.

    Our freind math tells us that Milan Lucic has very poor 5 on 5 offense production, Milan was an obvious detriment to Strome and Jesse’s 5 on 5 production.

    I trust a comparison of Lucic’s numbers to league averages would be very revealing.

    With that said, I am pleased that you, Math and I agree about the best way to build value back into Puljujarvi.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Oh, I have no doubt that trading Nurse would involve regret. I am also pretty certain that signing Nurse for $7 mil per year would involve regret.

    The numbers are the numbers though and because this team has been so bad for so long at drafting and developing there is no pipeline of inexpensive ELC contracts to balance out the cap numbers. That and bad contracts that will be on the books for several more years are going to make next season tight for money as well. If Benson becomes a legitimate top six player this year that helps but if the equation next summer is $7 mil for Darnell or a true top six winger I suspect the pendulum swings towards the winger.

    Not saying I like it. Just saying we have not finished paying for the sins of our past.

    It’ll start this year but the real influx of ELC/2nd contract replacing veterans will start next year.

    This year there will be an ELC or 2nd contract (Persson) replacing Sekera – next year one will replace Russell.

    Gagner and Kassian will be replaced next year with ELCs.

    Its starting now.

  85. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar:
    That is close to delusional.
    Cause it would have to be all Evp.
    1st line winger started at 32 Evp last year
    2 Nd line winger started at 21 Evp last year.
    But if benson does achieve 1st or 2nd EVP.
    I expect 3rd line winger 4-7 even goals.
    Which would mean he is being carried by the open net targeting of
    Centres
    Mcdavid
    RNH

    Wingers
    Draisaitl
    Granlund
    Chaisson
    Kassian
    Gagner
    Lucic
    All who have been top 4 fwd evg scorers.

    Goals win games.
    Passing is brutally less efficient at getting goals than direct shots.

    So your constructionist Narative is not likely.

    Keep dreaming!
    That is what being a Fan(attic) of a team is.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch: Thats next years problem though. In the meantime they have a contender.

    Instead of moving players for futures, Dubas wascreative and hustled his way to 4 moves, none of which ruined the team. The Marleau trade hurt but he didnt move our current river pushers. Id bet he finds a way. Meanwhile this team hasnt won a trade since Lubo. Lets get atter!

    I agree the plan is draft and develop but its not exclusive. Continually making moves to improve the roster should always be part of the equation. Calgary did well to move picks for Hamonic but draft well. I wouldnt move the 2020 1st but i do think there is a hybrid solution available

    They still have a problem for this year as they have $3.7M in cap space and need to sign Marner – make it $4.6M (after removing the player they replace).

    They will get some cushion when they put Horton on LTIR and maybe be forced to use off-season LTIR to get compliant (and that still may not be enough).

    Not to mention, given they will be using the LTIR cushion, they will have essentially no cap space to improve during the season including the deadline.

  87. Bulging Twine says:

    Richard Panik boosted every FW’s GF/60 that he played with the last two years except Brenden Perlini and the guy he played the most with, Derek Stepan, slight decrease.

    He got 2.75/4 in Washington to take Connolly’s spot on the third line.

    Connolly wanted to take the next step in his career and play top 6. That’s why he left Washington as their top 6 is set (unlike the Oilers) with
    Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson
    Vrana – Kuznetzov – Oshie

    on their third line, Hagelin took Burakovsky’s spot with Eller and now Panik.

    Would be nice to have set roles like that. That’s gotta be the goal.

  88. Rube Foster says:

    Bulging Twine: many a coaches dream – the 2-1 win

    just for the record, i am not advocating anything, just sharing what the GF% top 6 looks like based on last season

    Now, if it’s offence from the Nuge line that you want:looking at players who played with Nuge more than 100 minutes last season and ignoring GA, here are their GF/60 while on ice together:

    Draisattl 4.05 — 118:27
    Lucic —3.68 — 211:54
    Kassian 3.24 — 185:03
    JP——-2.73 —-241:46
    Khaira —2.37 — 177:19
    Gagnrrr -2.37—–126:43
    Chiasson 1.66 —289:31 –> kryptonite

    Ugh.

    That is an ugly, ugly list.

    Who here wants to pay money to watch Nuge drag Milan Lucic up and down the ice?

  89. Side says:

    jp: Could you give us some context on what a good/normal shot density is for reference?

    Best/worst in the league? Some of the other Oilers numbers? Anything for some sort of frame of reference?

    You don’t know already?

    Another casualty of the Canadian educational system.

  90. jp says:

    Rube Foster: JP great job with the numbers! I sincerely appreciate your work!

    I will not argue with math, I will point out however that just because Math places Lucic in the top nine of Edmonton Oilers forward’s 2018/19 results does not correlate to Milan Lucic being a top nine forward on an above average NHL team.

    If the Oilers goal is to be better this year than last, Milan Lucic should not play top nine minutes.

    And, I do believe it is more than just Coincedence and luck that Strome managed 1 goal in 23 games stapled to Milan Lucic and then somehow was able to score 18 goals the rest of the way in Rangers silks.

    Our freind math tells us that Milan Lucic has very poor 5 on 5 offense production, Milan was an obvious detriment to Strome and Jesse’s 5 on 5 production.

    I trust a comparison of Lucic’s numbers to league averages would be very revealing.

    With that said, I ampleased that you, Math and I agree about the best way to build value back into Puljujarvi.

    Yes, we agree on Puljujarvi.

    I also agree that Lucic wouldn’t be a top 9 forward by performance on many teams. He very well may remain one of the Oilers 9 best next season though. And I hope that Holland and Tippett play the best players they can in the best spots for the team to succeed despite what said players “should” be.

    I still disagree about Lucic being responsible for Strome and Puljujarvi’s lack of offence. In 17-18 Strome scored 1.46P/60 overall, but 1.66P/60 with Lucic. This past season he scored one 5on5 point with the Oilers. It was wth Lucic on the ice. He scored no points in 60 minutes without Lucic.

    Strome clearly went cold to start the year. Then he went back to being Strome when he was dealt. His 5on5 P/60 by year:
    13-14 1.47
    14-15 2.53!!
    15-16 1.33
    16-17 1.58
    17-18 1.46
    18-19 (EDM) 0.31
    18-19 (NYI) 1.32

    It doesn’t seem at all reasonable to blame Lucic for a cold streak by Strome IMO.

  91. Rube Foster says:

    dessert1111:
    The way I see it, there are seven roster spots open at the moment – 2-3 D and 4-5 F.

    The locks:

    McDavid
    Draisalt
    RNH
    Chiasson
    Kassian
    Gagner
    Khaira
    Granlund
    Lucic

    Klefbom
    Larsson
    Nurse
    Russell
    Benning

    Koskinen
    Smith

    Leaving the following players battling for a spot:

    Nygard
    Haas
    Brodziak
    Cave
    Jurco
    Benson
    Marody
    Gambardella
    Currie
    P. Russell
    Yamamoto

    Jones
    Persson
    Manning
    Bear
    Lagesson
    Bouchard

    I think the team has great competition for their fourth line and bottom defense pair. Problem is, for forwards, there are basically three guys who are top line performers and a bunch of good to mediocre fourth liners, and for defense, good second and third pairing players but no obvious good top pairing guys. And goaltending might be the biggest concern of all.

    There are enough question marks that if almost everything hits, it could be a good team, but the right bet is that this team, as currently constructed and what can be reasonably projected from here, is bottom third in the league.

    I am expect a boring summer and fall playing the waiting game and a mostly mediocre year, save the dazzling talents of the top performers, and hope to be pleasantly surprised and entertained.

    Great post, excellent take.

    From this perspective it would appear that there is space and opportunity for a cheaply signed Ultra Magnus Paajarvi somwhere in our bottom six.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    If Tyler Myers is worth $6M X 5, I’ll take Nurse at $7M X 8.

    Yes, I know UFA vs. RFA but still.

  93. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The right coach goes a long way to team performance. What remains after that is roster construction.

    The fact that we saw 2 teams this year and 1 team last year make significant improvement – NYI and Blues this year (Cup), and the Caps last year (Cup) – is evidence to me of this.

    Few players in the league can do it all, and are heavily dependent on line mates and usage.

    Few players are consistently high goal scorers and point producers.

    Getting the most out of each roster asset and as a team is the key.

    McLellan and Hitch aren’t good at that. Their history shows that with enough ability of the players to absorb punishment and enough depth, they can lead strong reg season teams. Between the two lengthy careers they have one Cup between them.

    Motivation and relationships (along with the goalie playing well enough and health) are what put any team in any sport over the top. Having game changers is pure spice on that dish.

    I am hopeful that having a professional acting, respected Gm that is in control of his mouth and game, and a coach that can drive systems while being liked and respected by the players (like Trotz and seemingly Berube) will bring out a lot more of what already exists in the remaining players.

    There are many imperfect players, but that is the problem of every team and the icing on the cake is the cap.

    If St Louis can go from last place at Christmas to Cup with few top end players as I see it, there is hope for the Oilers next season. I’m not saying Cup, but a consistent good effort fueled by elite players and good depth at C and in the core of the D if healthy, I can see a better season.

    If Tippet can get everyone on the same page the goalies will be better by default, and the wingers that currently can’t find there asses with both hands a go pro, might actually do something helpful.

    Maybe help comes up from below (no ass pun intended), maybe a deal or two. Still the Oilers IMO aren’t as bad a team as the results have been even if nothing much changes, if they get their Charmin rolls in a row.

  94. Professor Q says:

    Rebillled:
    If there’s something in the water and they’ve been carrying water and chopping wood.

    Chop water.

    Just as Mr. Bruce Lee instructed.

  95. oilsnc79 says:

    texmex:
    Jordan binnington AAV $4.4m.

    rickithebear:
    Last few weeks I have changed the distinction of my work.

    Yes LT
    Observation & Data is the process.
    You develop theories.
    Repetition of multiple season data proves your theories.
    That is were all my theorems come from.

    Like
    -High/ low danger shot
    – High Danger shot area.
    -Elite HD SH Dmen
    -Table hockey Goalie movement
    -Open/Closed shot
    -0% Corsi
    -Elite 0% corsi dmen
    -Dmen establish the Open HD SH Save% baseline a goalie performs around
    -Elite Open HD SH dmen/ pairs
    -Forward establish Corsi rates thru entry ratevrestriction thru NZ traps.
    – rovers create a 3-1-1-1 structure.
    -Rovers have 1/4 the success rate at generating EVG than forward.
    -Rovers cause high Corsi rates by not allowing Fwd NZ traps and a Dpair to press the blue.
    -Rover 3-1-1-1 abandonment of HD area yields the highest rate of open HD shot rates.
    -Rovers 3-1-1-1 abandonment of HD area creates the lowest Open HD save% baseline for goalies to perform around.
    -Elite +ve Open SH save% goalies.

    -Each fwd have their own expected goal mass over a career
    -Each Dman has their own open HD SH density per corsi to their side over a career.
    -Each goalie has their own open HD save % +ve or -ve over a career.

    -Their is no such thing as a move to a league average for any individual player.
    -PDO is a simplistic constructive narative with no merit at an individual analytic measure level.
    It fails to hold.
    Taking 2 league averages when their are 3 separate that exist for fwd, Dmen, Goalies makes it invalid.

    – Bench change with or without pocession is the biggest ZS affect on players entry, corsi rates.
    – Ability to run a fwd NZ trap is the biggest non zone start on a players entry, Corsi rates.
    – 3D situation performance averages is the lowest variable analysis with accurate performance value.
    Team, comp, ZS.

    – Cup core roster structure.
    High% of championships won by cup core rosters over last 25 years.
    Only 2 teams have won championships without injury or Ref influence.
    2008 Penguins
    2009 Penguins
    Carolina beat
    Buffalo who lost 3 HD dmen in East Conf final.
    Edmonton who lost a top 10 open HD goalie Rollie.
    Had to go with sub top 30 open HD save% goalies Conklin, Markannen.
    Florida advanced to Cuo final withstrong EV goal fwd depth, and top 3 open HD def structure topped by one of the 2 Origional table hockey movement goalies JVB.
    -Top GA teams advance to final 4 at a substantionally higher % than GF teams.

    That is just 26 of the 40+ theorems that repeat themselves.

    The latest theory that interests me is that
    – someforwards adjust their open space targeting when they move from 3-2-1 to 3-1-1-1 structures.
    – if they do, what type are they. Suspect less mobile.

    Can any one on Lt’s possibly expain in any form of explain rikkis post. Please

    What’s Koskinen make again?

  96. Scungilli Slushy says:

    When we talk about what the Oilers can and can’t do remeberizing the past, I am not sure that is a good take on things.

    There is a new sheriff in town and significant changes have been made to the hive mindset. Not to mention what we see in public.

    Holland may fail because he can’t get done what he wants to do or is out of tune and wrong like Unsneaky Pete, but the past narratives don’t apply anymore IMO.

    It’s a new day and if it works kudos to Mr Katz. I imagine what he’s done is hard to do, bringing in your idols and former party mates and having to move them all out of the circle. Expensive, outside of MacT, in keeping them on the payroll.

  97. Bulging Twine says:

    running the wowy’s for gf/60 and ga/60 on Markus Granlund last year it appears he was a drag on everyone’s offence except Jay Beagle (probably cuz there wasn’t much to drag).

    and he helped everyone’s GA/60 except Tyler Motte

    -this is for those who played more than 100 minutes together

  98. Rube Foster says:

    jp: Yes, we agree on Puljujarvi.

    I also agree that Lucic wouldn’t be a top 9 forward by performance on many teams. He very well may remain one of the Oilers 9 best next season though. And I hope that Holland and Tippett play the best players they can in the best spots for the team to succeed despite what said players “should” be.

    I still disagree about Lucic being responsible for Strome and Puljujarvi’s lack of offence. In 17-18 Strome scored 1.46P/60 overall, but 1.66P/60 with Lucic. This past season he scored one 5on5 point with the Oilers. It was wth Lucic on the ice. He scored no points in 60 minutes without Lucic.

    Strome clearly went cold to start the year. Then he went back to being Strome when he was dealt. His 5on5 P/60 by year:
    13-14 1.47
    14-15 2.53!!
    15-16 1.33
    16-17 1.58
    17-18 1.46
    18-19 (EDM) 0.31
    18-19 (NYI) 1.32

    It doesn’t seem at all reasonable to blame Lucic for a cold streak by Strome IMO.

    I’ll be the first to admit that It’s kind of silly that we’re “bickering” about how much impact if any that Lucic had on Strome and Puljujarvi’s offense the first 20 games of the 2018 season. Spilt milk. I guess that makes us typical Oiler fans:)

    Regarding Milan – and I promise this will be my last Lucic rant of the day.

    As LT has been saying for years, the Edmonton Oilers have a significant scoring problem when Connor McDavid is not on the ice. Math clearly demonstrates Lucic’s 5 on 5 scoring rates are poor, and have been getting poorer every year.

    Just for fun, look at Lucic’s 5 on 5 offensive results for the last three seasons and compare them to NHL averages. Then remind yourself that Mclellan had Lucic playing with legit top six NHL talent for most of the first two years.

    I take no pleasure in saying this, but by eye and by Math, Milan Lucic has been regressing every year since he joined the Edmonton Oilers to the point where he now produces at NHL replacement level player rates.

    Milan Lucic by all accounts is a warrior and champion. He has had a truly remarkable career as a professional hockey player. He is a gentlemen and great teammate. His physicality and his leadership qualities remain assets.

    None of that changes the facts that when you compare his offensive metrics to his peers in the NHL, he performs at a fourth line level.

    Should Milan Lucic play significant minutes in the Edmonton Oilers top six forward group during the 2019/20 NHL season, it is very likely we will be drafting in the top 10 again come summer of 2020.

  99. Brocktw says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m not so sure that a number three center is as high on Hollands list as being made out. I think they are all right with cave, kaihra, brodziak, gagne, Haas, parody and MacLeod. Although a team friendly deal could get us boyle to add to the list. I also think cave has more love then most of us think. He is next years chiasson and I’d put a 20 on it.

    They need a winger and their is probably a team friendly number on the table that gets maroon back. For what dizengl signed for I wonder what the offer from Edmonton was? Irregardless, first and second line right wing is a crater If maroon doesnt make out expect pullugarvi either filling the spot with a trade or his body.

    Barring a ridiculous trade offer expect Russell to be holding down a 6-7 d role for the next 164 games minus the trips to IR. He is an absolute intangible monster! Their are 6-8 legitimate d prospects needing to be developed over the next 2 years. Expect him to be riding shotgun to a few valuable names; bear, Jones and Bouchard to name a few. This is a good thing and longterm is worth 8 mill.

    Imagine if 10 years ago some brainiac would of said ‘ hey let’s get one of these high character guys to play on a wing with some of our young guys’. What would of he been worth? ‘ hey we have some great veterans here let’s let them lead the culture so our halls and yaks aren’t ruined’. Nope. It was ‘ I want hall playing number one center. Kevvy my boy, tell Steve to clean house and see if he can get us some seconds. If Steve cant tell him Craig will’.

    Benning and nurse will benefit from the struggles last year. Having hitch on as an advisor with the first hand coach player relationships from 18-19 is a good thing. I expect growth among these young men. We will see. I have a feeling that they will prove some trade geeks wrong over the next few years.

    Either Gambradella or Currie will make a huge bottom 6 showing this year. That’s my bet. Russell, day or malone may be the players that do it. If we are seeing progress, Jay woodcrofts first brilliant season will pay dividends starting where it should. Bottom of the roster depth. Like a goon in the 90’s, roster depth has extreme value now a days. The good teams grow it in the minors.

    On lucic, a summer of on the ice training will pay off. He will accept his lot and the Oilers will build the bottom 6 neutral zone and forecheckkng systems around him. He will get 20-30 points, but no one will doubt his presence. I dont really know this to be true, I’m just being optimistic.

    Goalies – who knows?

  100. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    If Tyler Myers is worth $6M X 5, I’ll take Nurse at $7M X 8.

    Yes, I know UFA vs. RFA but still.

    I’d take the Maserati over the Ford too but you still have to be able to make the payments, buy the insurance and fill the gas tank.

    I haven’t seen anybody say they don’t want Nurse. What has been said is that given Edmonton’s need to fill out the roster there is a question as to whether or not the team can afford a 2nd pairing dman at $7 mil.

    Framing the issue as one of comparative value without taking into account whether or not the team has the cap space misrepresents the situation imo.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    If Tippet can get everyone on the same page the goalies will be better by default, and the wingers that currently can’t find there asses with both hands a go pro, might actually do something helpful.

    There is a (the) main key to the season – the tending and it holding and giving the team a chance to win on most nights. As you state, here is hoping that better team structure, defensive structure, etc. will help the tenders.

    Like most NHL tenders, both of these guys have shown the ability to “get hot” and provide plus tending for a couple weeks plus (Smith with a history of longer streaks) – here is hoping one or the other is hot for most periods of the year.

  102. pts2pndr says:

    rickithebear: You act like trading a non top open shot HD dman so you can get a top 10 open HD sh save% goalie that is part of almost every conf & cup champion over the last 25 years is a bad thing.

    Hi Mr bear. As always any player can and at times should be traded to improve the team. What I am against is trading players on the promise that a young player may be able to get the job done. Trading a player to fill a hole while making another hole is an exercise in futility with the end results being a worse team.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brocktw:
    Lowetide,

    I’m not so sure that a number three center is as high on Hollands list as being made out. I think they are all right with cave, kaihra, brodziak, gagne, Haas, parody andMacLeod. Although a team friendly deal could get us boyle to add to the list.

    They need a winger and their is probably a team friendly number on the table that gets maroon back. For what dizengl signed for I wonder what the offer from Edmonton was?

    Barring a ridiculous trade offer expect Russell to be holding down a 6-7 d role for the next 164 games – the trips to the IR.He is an absolute intangible monster! with the 6-8 legitimate d prospects needing to be developed over the next 2 years expect him to be

    Holland himself said, in no uncertain words, he needs a 3C – this was on July 1 at the day end presser (and he’s repeated it since).

    From your list:

    – Khaira and Gagner – Khaira has potential as a center but both these players are better on the wing and Holland himself said this in his presser

    – Hass – not even sure he’s an NHL player, let alone a center at the NHL level, let alone a 3C

    – Cave – NHL tweener at best – if anything, 4C. If Cave is 3C, that is a very bad sign

    – Brodziak – last year was a cliff. Can he recover? Maybe but unlikely at his age. If anything, 4C

    – Marody – still needs to prove he can skate at the NHL level and, assuming his skill can carry him, its likely as a winger and certaintly unlikely as a 3C as an NHL rookie.

    – McLeod – not a legit NHL option this year.

    Its actually clear from the list that a 3C is needed.

  104. Brocktw says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m not saying it’s not an area for concern I’m saying they will be ok running with it.

    My guess is right wing is the position that is keeping them up at night, not 3c.

    We will see though, and me as a piss pour scout gives cave the edge.

  105. jp says:

    Rube Foster: I’ll be the first to admit that It’s kind of silly that we’re “bickering” about how much impact if any that Lucic had on Strome and Puljujarvi’s offense the first 20 games of the 2018 season. Spilt milk. I guess that makes us typical Oiler fans:)

    Regarding Milan – and I promise this will be my last Lucic rant of the day.

    As LT has been saying for years, the Edmonton Oilers have a significant scoring problem when Connor McDavid is not on the ice. Math clearly demonstrates Lucic’s 5 on 5 scoring rates are poor, and have been getting poorer every year.

    Just for fun, look at Lucic’s 5 on 5offensive results for the last three seasons and compare them to NHL averages. Then remind yourself that Mclellan had Lucic playing with legit top six NHL talent for most of the first two years.

    I take no pleasure in saying this, but by eye and by Math, Milan Lucic has been regressing every year since he joined the Edmonton Oilers to the point where he now produces at NHL replacement level player rates.

    Milan Lucic by all accounts is a warrior and champion. He has had a truly remarkable career as a professional hockey player. He is a gentlemen and great teammate. His physicality and his leadership qualities remain assets.

    Non of that changes the facts that when you compare his offensive metricsto his peers in the NHL, he performs at a fourth line level.

    ShouldMilan Lucic play significant minutes in the Edmonton Oilers top six forward group during the 2019/20 NHL season, it is very likely we will be drafting in the top 10 again come summer of 2020.

    There’s no question Lucic doesn’t score much. And I absolutely agree that we don’t want Lucic playing in the top 6 if there are better options. I hope there are better options.

    What LT has been saying for years, I believe, is that the Oilers *give back* everything when McDavid isn’t on the ice. Actual scoring rates are no more important than how much you give up.

    In that regard Lucic has been one of the better Oilers, and he’s very clearly been among the Oilers top 9 in GF% in each of the past 3 years. Lucic suppresses offence both ways – there’s value in that.

    Didn’t LT list Lucic-RNH-Nygard as the likely best (currently) available Oilers 2nd line for the upcoming season (recent Athletic article)?

  106. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Holland himself said, in no uncertain words, he needs a 3C – this was on July 1 at the day end presser (and he’s repeated it since).

    From your list:

    – Khaira and Gagner – Khaira has potential as a center but both these players are better on the wing and Holland himself said this in his presser

    – Hass – not even sure he’s an NHL player, let alone a center at the NHL level, let alone a 3C

    – Cave – NHL tweener at best – if anything, 4C.If Cave is 3C, that is a very bad sign

    – Brodziak – last year was a cliff.Can he recover?Maybe but unlikely at his age.If anything, 4C

    – Marody – still needs to prove he can skate at the NHL level and, assuming his skill can carry him, its likely as a winger and certaintly unlikely as a 3C as an NHL rookie.

    – McLeod – not a legit NHL option this year.

    Its actually clear from the list that a 3C is needed.

    Here’s thinking outside of the box…

    Marc Arcobello. $1m x1. RHS. 30.

    Handshake deal if he doesn’t make the team, he goes back to Switzerland.

    Before I get roasted here it’s not ideal nor optimal, but it’s better than the Cave / Brodziak dual 4rth line tandem.

    Played for Tippett.

  107. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Holland himself said, in no uncertain words, he needs a 3C – this was on July 1 at the day end presser (and he’s repeated it since).

    From your list:

    – Khaira and Gagner – Khaira has potential as a center but both these players are better on the wing and Holland himself said this in his presser

    – Hass – not even sure he’s an NHL player, let alone a center at the NHL level, let alone a 3C

    – Cave – NHL tweener at best – if anything, 4C.If Cave is 3C, that is a very bad sign

    – Brodziak – last year was a cliff.Can he recover?Maybe but unlikely at his age.If anything, 4C

    – Marody – still needs to prove he can skate at the NHL level and, assuming his skill can carry him, its likely as a winger and certaintly unlikely as a 3C as an NHL rookie.

    – McLeod – not a legit NHL option this year.

    Its actually clear from the list that a 3C is needed.

    I agree, Holland has been clear on the need for a 3C. And there are still a number of FAs out there that can help.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brocktw:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m not saying it’s not an area for concern I’m saying they will be ok running with it.

    My guess is right wing is the position that is keeping them up at night, not 3c.

    We will see though, and me as a piss pour scout gives cave the edge.

    You could be right, I guess we’ll see.

    What I do know is that Ken Holland has been extremely true to his word with respect to what he’s going to acquire this off-season (and not acquire) and has expressly mentioned the 3C

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: There’s no question Lucic doesn’t score much. And I absolutely agree that we don’t want Lucic playing in the top 6 if there are better options. I hope there are better options.

    What LT has been saying for years, I believe, is that the Oilers *give back* everything when McDavid isn’t on the ice. Actual scoring rates are no more important than how much you give up.

    In that regard Lucic has been one of the better Oilers, and he’s very clearly been among the Oilers top 9 in GF% in each of the past 3 years. Lucic suppresses offence both ways – there’s value in that.

    Didn’t LT list Lucic-RNH-Nygard as the likely best (currently) available Oilers 2nd line for the upcoming season (recent Athletic article)?

    211 minutes – 68% goal share for Nuge and Lucic last year – that can’t be ignored, can it?

  110. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Alternatively, Khaira sucks at weak side draws so…

    Again, not ideal but if you played Khaira with Gagner, you’d at least have a third line that produced offense above AHL tweeter/expired vet rates and Gagner could take the draws on his strong side.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I agree, Holland has been clear on the need for a 3C. And there are still a number of FAs out there that can help.

    Sheehan, Lingberg, Boyle, Marleau, apparently Arcobello.

    I’ve still got a target on Vegas and Eakin

  112. jp says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    Alternatively, Khaira sucks at weak side draws so…

    Again, not ideal but if you played Khaira with Gagner, you’d at least have a third line that produced offense above AHL tweeter/expired vet rates and Gagner could take the draws on his strong side.

    It would be an improvement on Cave/Brodziak, agreed there. Arcobello was 2nd in NLA scoring, 15 points ahead of his teammate Haas. Who knows.

  113. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: 211 minutes – 68% goal share for Nuge and Lucic last year – that can’t be ignored, can it?

    I noticed that too and thought the same thing. Did you notice the other numbers though? ~45% in corsi, shots, fenwick. xGF% together was 43.55%. So maybe it should be ignored.

  114. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sheehan, Lingberg, Boyle, Marleau, apparently Arcobello.

    I’ve still got a target on Vegas and Eakin

    Yup, lots of options still.

    I don’t understand Eakin as your hard target though. He’s a good player, but is he worth the $3.8M plus (middling) assets to acquire? (in particular considering the Oilers cap situation)

    If you bring in one of the other guys for $1.5M you can still theoretically add a winger who could help the 2nd or 3rd line. The Puljujarvi trade return for instance. Add Eakin and you’re done adding.

  115. Brocktw says:

    Ryan,

    Not a bad idea. But not better, probably closer to the same. Although all three cave, brodz, arco is better by two thirds.

    In the end All three players are bottom 6 center assets. To me caves age and situation: picked up on waivers from the cup finalist and showing an acceptable level of bottom 6 play” over the second half of last years season is not a reason to discount.

    The thing to remember is above this group is the league’s top 3 center punch, by half!. Look for good AHL depth to challenge as well. China left us with some serious issues. Quality pipeline of pros is the best it has ever been. From top down. And that is good.

  116. GBandQ says:

    When it comes to the handling of young European recruits, the Falmes seem to be figuring it out.

  117. Eh Team says:

    Brocktw: In the end All three players are bottom 6 center assets. To me caves age and situation: picked up on waivers from the cup finalist and showing an acceptable level of bottom 6 play” over the second half of last years season is not a reason to discount.

    Cave’s maybe a good 3C in the AHL. 8 points in 56 career NHL games- he’s a guy who will easily clear waivers, not a NHL 3C (or even 4C)

  118. Brocktw says:

    Eh Team,

    Possibly, or he is a bottom 6 guy who was stuck behind some very good young forwards in Boston. Breaking free to a club with very little good young forwards seemed to allow him to shine in role. He is not a poor bet.

    If we all agree we need a few rems then Colby cave is an important part of the roster next year.

  119. pts2pndr says:

    defmn: I don’t think anybody is advocating making a bad trade.

    I do think that $7 mil is first pair money so for me to commit to that contract I have to be convinced that Nurse is a dominant first pair dman or will be in the near future.

    He has this year to make that case.

    I do be believe we wii have a better idea what Nurse’s upper limit is after this year particularly if Klefbom is our for any period of time. At his age and with his tool box if he tears the cover off the ball he could be able to demand ( market wise) more than we can afford to pay. It may make the bridge deal look even worse than it does now.

  120. Eh Team says:

    Brocktw: Possibly, or he is a bottom 6 guy who was stuck behind some very good young forwards in Boston. Breaking free to a club with very little good young forwards seemed to allow him to shine in role. He is not a poor bet.

    3 points in 33 games with the Oilers is hardly impressive

  121. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sheehan, Lingberg, Boyle, Marleau, apparently Arcobello.

    I’ve still got a target on Vegas and Eakin

    Or Brassard at a bargain price ? ~1 x $2.5 ?

  122. defmn says:

    pts2pndr: I do be believe we wii have a better idea what Nurse’s upper limit is after this year particularly if Klefbom is our for any period of time. At his age and with his tool box if he tears the cover off the ball he could be able to demand ( market wise) more than we can afford to pay. It may make the bridge deal look even worse than it does now.

    Completely agree. Big year for him. If he takes yet another step and the cap does not increase significantly Holland will have a major decision to make. A first pairing dman with all of Nurse’s other attributes is definitely worth $7 mil. Whether the Oilers can afford that is the question I don’t know the answer to.

    Signing him to a contract of that size will make the top 6 winger upgrade as difficult next year as it has been this summer as the post that started this discussion showed.

    Mine is not an argument for or against trading Nurse. I was simply agreeing with JP that it is an illusion that we will be out of cap trouble next summer.

    Chiarelli’s decisions will haunt us longer than that imo.

  123. jp says:

    Brocktw,

    Eh Team,

    He didn’t score enough, and got outscored, but he’s an interesting player. His corsi, fenwick and shot rates lead all Oiler forwards. Same in expected GF, and with tough zone starts. He won some face-offs and killed penalties a bit too. And he *looked* like he could play.

    I don’t think he’s a 3C, but he might be a solid 4C who could stick around for a bit.

  124. rickithebear says:

    OilSNC79:
    All those are theori that I presented on here over the last 13 years.

    That is a list of 27 theorems ( proven by seasonal data)

    If you do not know understand them it just means you do not know anything about winning multivariable game action analysis.

    Heck woodguy spent 6 years arguing against my concept that is a basis for his web site.
    Your wrong
    Your wrong
    Your wrong
    Oh heh!

    Problem is thevsite is still a constructionist narative.
    He chooses data DFF that makes his results are 50% inaccurate.
    I did multiple population test for the best GA dmen and GF forwards.
    For different seasons.
    His capture rate was around 47%.

    Brutally awful.

    Each one of the theorems requires pages of explanation.
    Which I usually post over a 1-2 yr period.
    Problem is first 6 years of LT blog is lost.
    Since LT has not responded to my request for past history of my posts.

    I have been able to capture all my posts on HF boards.

    Including my prediction of Vegas Golden Knights having the potential to make the cup final pre expansion draft.

    Since most do not have the ability to visualize simple human motion.
    I have come to the conclusion is a series of video examples of
    Human motion in the game related to the theorems will be needed.

  125. rickithebear says:

    I just read a collection of minimal affect micro analysis on this site based on passing and zonal based structures.
    That are up to 700% less important than the 7 largest goal diff affects.

    I quit using traditional rate based WoWY.
    That is now found on Nat Stat.

    Cause of the failure to differentiate by the the 7 largest goal diff affect factors.

    Just recently went back to viewing of goals for and goals against while splitting them into differentiated group. For simplified results.
    What I call a manual process that I did starting in 07-08 with the behind the net resource arrival.

    Off to bed.

  126. rickithebear says:

    Request re shot density.
    I posted that kind of info just before freecagency when looking door top 6 evg scorering wingers.

    Were I found 8 evg is a top 6 fwd winger.

    I saw shooting densities in the 9 to 11% range for top 6 at even.

    Someone had stated that Chaissons PPG shot density was not sustainable.
    He scored at a 23% rate which was barely top 45.

    Puljujarvis numbers are awful. Relative to the league.

  127. godot10 says:

    defmn: I don’t think anybody is advocating making a bad trade.

    I do think that $7 mil is first pair money so for me to commit to that contract I have to be convinced that Nurse is a dominant first pair dman or will be in the near future.

    He has this year to make that case.

    #1D money is overy $10 million now.
    #2D-#3D money is going to be $7 miillion to $10 million.

    Trouba, Werenski, McAvoy, Gardiner and others yet to sign.

  128. JimmyV1965 says:

    defmn: I’d take the Maserati over the Ford too but you still have to be able to make the payments, buy the insurance and fill the gas tank.

    I haven’t seen anybody say they don’t want Nurse. What has been said is that given Edmonton’s need to fill out the roster there is a question as to whether or not the team can afford a 2nd pairing dman at $7 mil.

    Framing the issue as one of comparative value without taking into account whether or not the team has the cap space misrepresents the situation imo.

    Nurse was in the top 30 scoring for dmen. He has warts to his game for sure, but so do many others in the top 30. Nurse is going to get paid. It will probably appear be too much when he signs the deal, but in a couple years it will be a good value, just like many other player signings. Trading good players entering their prime is something the Oilers have done in the past. Never really turns out good. Keep good players.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brocktw:
    Eh Team,

    Possibly, or he is a bottom 6 guy who was stuck behind some very good young forwards in Boston. Breaking free to a club with very little good young forwardsseemed to allow him to shine inrole.He is not a poor bet.

    If we all agree we need a few rems then Colby cave is an important part of the roster next year.

    I do believe that Cave is a very poor bet at 3C and a “meh” bet at 4C.

    Sure, Cave “did fine” in his minutes last year but is he anything more than a tweener? The team PK rates with him on the ice are the worst on the team (sample size alert).

    If Cave is 3C to start the year, I fear huge issues. In fact, if Cave wins the 4C spot, I think things are already looking bleak.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB: Or Brassard at a bargain price ? ~1 x$2.5 ?

    Yes, at this point, yup, I’ll take D. Brassard as long as its a one year deal – I wouldn’t give him a second year to entice him.

    Maybe he can find some long lost offence? He was really bad last year but he’ll be playing to stay in the league next year.

    Some of these guys may be coming to camps on PTOs.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Completely agree. Big year for him. If he takes yet another step and the cap does not increase significantly Holland will have a major decision to make. A first pairing dman with all of Nurse’s other attributes is definitely worth $7 mil. Whether the Oilers can afford that is the question I don’t know the answer to.

    Signing him to a contract of that size will make the top 6 winger upgrade as difficult next year as it has been this summer as the post that started this discussion showed.

    Mine is not an argument for or against trading Nurse. I was simply agreeing with JP that it is an illusion that we will be out of cap trouble next summer.

    Chiarelli’s decisions will haunt us longer than that imo.

    Although I don’t agree with the premise that “Sekera’s buyout money was given to Chiasson”, if we buy in to that line of thought they, the summer 2020 Russell disposition and replacement on the roster with an ELC cap savings of $3M will be given to Nurse for his raise – boom, done!.

    Perhaps Maksimov pops and is the top 6 scorer in 2020/21?

    Time will tell – I’m going to enjoy Dranell’s tireless minute munching this coming year and, hopeful, ability to play less minutes with Kris Russell as his partner – Matt Benning or Adam Larsson please.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    “If you do not know understand them it just means you do not know anything about winning multivariable game action analysis.”

    BURN!

  133. defmn says:

    godot10: #1D money is overy $10 million now.
    #2D-#3D money is going to be $7 miillion to $10 million.

    Trouba, Werenski, McAvoy, Gardiner and others yet to sign.

    I don’t see that. If the cap remains flat a balanced top 2 should make around $12 mil. If you give $10 mil to the dominant player in that pair it only leaves you $2 mil for the other player. If you pay Nurse $7 mil he is still most likely to be the highest paid dman on the team going forward.

    Regardless of any of this my comments have nothing to do with what he might make. They are about what the Oilers can afford next summer.

  134. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965: Nurse was in the top 30 scoring for dmen. He has warts to his game for sure, but so do many others in the top 30. Nurse is going to get paid. It will probably appear be too much when he signs the deal, but in a couple years it will be a good value, just like many other player signings. Trading good players entering their prime is something the Oilers have done in the past. Never really turns out good.Keep good players.

    Not sure why responses to my posts keep telling me we should keep Nurse. I never said otherwise. The last few weeks here have all been about the lack of top six wingers on the team. JP posts showing that next year is not going to free up any more money for a top six winger than this summer did if Nurse gets paid $7 mil.

    This isn’t about what Nurse is worth. It is simple addition. Can the team afford to pay Nurse $7 million and add top six wingers next summer? The math says no. Holland will have to make choices. I fail to see how that is controversial.

  135. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Although I don’t agree with the premise that “Sekera’s buyout money was given to Chiasson”, if we buy in to that line of thought they, the summer 2020 Russell disposition and replacement on the roster with an ELC cap savings of $3M will be given to Nurse for his raise – boom, done!.

    Perhaps Maksimov pops and is the top 6 scorer in 2020/21?

    Time will tell – I’m going to enjoy Dranell’s tireless minute munching this coming year and, hopeful, ability to play less minutes with Kris Russell as his partner – Matt Benning or Adam Larsson please.

    Could well play out like that. Which leaves JP’s math unaffected – no money for a UFA top six winger. Which was his point if I remember correctly.

  136. jp says:

    defmn: I don’t see that. If the cap remains flat a balanced top 2 should make around $12 mil. If you give $10 mil to the dominant player in that pair it only leaves you $2 mil for the other player. If you pay Nurse $7 mil he is still most likely to be the highest paid dman on the team going forward.

    Regardless of any of this my comments have nothing to do with what he might make. They are about what the Oilers can afford next summer.

    Right now, and this will obviously go up even through this summer:
    1D, #31D salary $5.7M (cap hit)
    2D, #62D $4.6M
    3D, #93D $3.75M (it was $3.875 among players who played last season last season)
    4D, #124D $2.138M ($2.50 last year)
    5D, #155D $925k ($1.3M last year)

    Last years numbers are included because there are more unsigned RFAs than I realized.

    I think it’s clear that $7M is really solidly into #1D money now, and I do wonder whether it’s a bit high for even Nurse’s camp to ask (assuming another year like this past one).

    Also, we are very very luck to have Klefbom and Larsson being paid #3D, soon #4D money.

  137. jp says:

    defmn: Could well play out like that. Which leaves JP’s math unaffected – no money for a UFA top six winger. Which was his point if I remember correctly.

    No, if they dispose of Russell they do open up more money. I was assuming Lucic and Russell stay.

    I do think they sign rather than trade Nurse. And it’s going to eat up some money.

    If the goaltending holds and they can dispose or Russell (with young D capably replacing him) then things look pretty good. If not, well it could ugly.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Could well play out like that. Which leaves JP’s math unaffected – no money for a UFA top six winger. Which was his point if I remember correctly.

    Potentially – at the same time, the counterpoint was maybe someone like Maksimov pops and there isn’t a need for a UFA top 6 winger?

  139. defmn says:

    jp: No, if they dispose of Russell they do open up more money. I was assuming Lucic and Russell stay.

    I do think they sign rather than trade Nurse. And it’s going to eat up some money.

    If the goaltending holds and they can dispose or Russell (with young D capably replacing him) then things look pretty good. If not, well it could ugly.

    My mistake. The memory isn’t what it used to be. 😉

  140. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Potentially – at the same time, the counterpoint was maybe someone like Maksimov pops and there isn’t a need for a UFA top 6 winger?

    That would be great news and, of course, being Oilers fans hope is our best friend. 😉

  141. jzed says:

    Finally some consistent daytime sunshine! Hope springs….. Nurse is getting headman pass itis from all the reps , can’t remember what rushing with it felt like.
    Benson feels like his skates are extensions of his legs after all the explosion reps
    Kharia is practicing like he realizes this is it
    Jones is getting stronger by the day,,Bear is hungry like a bear. Lagesson will smoke someone in camp and get in the first fight….

    Add in Bouch, all the Swedes who want to get paid and the fact that our new 1B goalie can mentor half of our D on how to pass the puck…

    Ah, summer

  142. NHL Rumors: Edmonton Oilers – Kris Russell, Matt Benning, and Darnell Nurse - The Lost Leafs says:

    […] Allan Mitchell of Lowetide.ca:  Again, the Ken Holland plan represents getting younger and building brick by brick. Draft and develop. Kris Russell still appears the most likely RHD trade bait over Matt Benning. […]

  143. NHL Rumors: Edmonton Oilers - Kris Russell, Matt Benning, and Darnell Nurse - NHL Compilation says:

    […] Allan Mitchell of Lowetide.ca:  Again, the Ken Holland plan represents getting younger and building brick by brick. Draft and develop. Kris Russell still appears the most likely RHD trade bait over Matt Benning. […]

  144. NHL Rumors: Edmonton Oilers – Kris Russell, Matt Benning, and Darnell Nurse - Hockey Venture says:

    […] Allan Mitchell of Lowetide.ca:  Again, the Ken Holland plan represents getting younger and building brick by brick. Draft and develop. Kris Russell still appears the most likely RHD trade bait over Matt Benning. […]

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