Training Camp Hopeful No. 1: Tyler Benson

by Lowetide

There are two key seasons for young prospects: Draft year (usually 17) and first year pro (mostly 20). Among forwards drafted by the Oilers who played in the AHL at 20 this decade, Tyler Benson is the class of the group.

1 Tyler Benson 68, 15-51-66 .971 [2018-19]

2 Tobias Rieder 64, 28-20-48 .750 [2013-14]. NHL regular at 21.

3 Jesse Puljujarvi 39, 12-16-28 .718 (age 18) [2016-17]

4 Kailer Yamamoto 27, 10-8-18 .667 [2018-19]

5 Teemu Hartikainen 66, 17-25-42 .636 [2010-11]

6 Bogdan Yakimov 57, 12-16-28 .491 [2014-15]

7 Marco Roy 42, 8-12-20 .476 [2015-16]

8 Phil Cornet 60, 7-16-23 .383 [2010-11]

9 Tyler Pitlick 62, 7-16-23 .371 [2011-12]

10 Greg Chase 19, 1-6-7 .368 [2015-16]

11 Anton Lander 14, 1-4-5 .357 [2011-12]

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • New Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • New Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

TYLER BENSON, REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS 2019-20

What role will be play in Edmonton? Based on the current depth chart, I have Benson as the No. 2 LW in terms of what he can bring offensively (he’ll trail Leon Draisaitl but should deliver more than Jujhar Khaira and Markus Granlund). Joakim Nygard will also have some input and I think Ken Holland would prefer Benson as a recall option when and if something derails. He’s on my roster as of today.

What role will he play in Bakersfield? No. 1 LW, power-play and penalty-killing time. You can see the appeal of sending him down and having Benson tear the cover off the ball for 30 games. Edmonton might need a boost around that time.

What has changed since his draft day? The two biggest items are health and high performance. Benson was among the AHL’s best rookies and Jay Woodcroft raved about him all season. It was a strong year he can build on.

Anything else? If you’re looking for a perfect fit married to a gigantic opportunity, it exists with Benson in Edmonton. Ken Holland may (and I think will) change the equation, but if no transactions occur over the rest of the summer, Benson is in a sweet spot.

What about his lack of speed? He will go as far as his foot speed takes him. I like the HockeyProspect.com assessment from Benson’s draft day: “Benson is not the speediest of skaters but does have above average acceleration and ability to create space with a powerful lower-body.” We’ll have to see about Benson’s speed in the NHL.

What is the current LW depth chart? I think Tippett’s depth chart will be Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Markus Granlund and Jujhar Khaira. Maybe Joe Gambardella as the extra. A strong training camp gets Benson at least No. 3 on this list, I’ll bet No. 2.

What one thing will get Benson to the NHL? His passing. The only better passing LW on the roster is Draisaitl. He made a pass in the AHL last season that was freaking perfect, I mean memorably perfect. Man. It was so good. No. 6 on this highlight.

What kind of depth chart do you see opening night? I believe there will be a trade, and suspect a veteran scorer to be part of the story.

Like? Let’s take James Neal. If you can add him and subtract Lucic, that makes the depth chart Draisaitl, Neal, Granlund, Khaira and Gambardella.

With Benson the first recall? Yes. Exactly.

Who are his comparables? Based on his boxcars at 20 in the AHL, the list of comparables ranges from meh to wow. Alexander Khokhlachev is a comparable and hasn’t made it yet, but Chris Tierney, Dylan Strome, Daniel Sprong, Markus Granlund all either made it or are on the way. It’s too soon to tell on Nick Merkley.

How much will he score as a rookie? If he plays 60 games in the NHL this season, and gets 12 minutes a night at evens, I’ll say 7-14-21, somewhere in there .

So, no Calder Trophy? If he gets with McDavid anything can happen. However, I think he’ll move up and down the lineup. And to be sure, his rookie season could be next year.

DZINGEL

He signed a two-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes that looks reasonable on first blush. I rated him, some others did not, but most Oilers fans are frustrated with the lack of a strong scoring addition and a third-line center. Understandable.

At this point, if Holland doesn’t have a move or two in his back pocket, then we’re going to be watching a lot of rookies in what will be a development season. If you know Ken Holland, you also know that runs counter to his own established template.

I think there are many moves to come this summer and suspect the Oilers will be in on a few. Fans are mad at Holland because he hasn’t made any loud noises, but his series of one and two year deals has improved the depth.

I remain convinced there’s a move to come that addresses the top-six forwards. If you subtract Lucic and add Neal to the left side, the Draisaitl-Neal-Granlund-Khaira depth chart might contain 80+ goals — right now I’m estimating 68 for the top for LW’s.

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[…] Training Camp Hopeful No. 1: Tyler Benson – What has changed since his draft day? The two biggest items are health and high. […]

jp

ArmchairGM: I have posted the splits before, maybe if I get a few minutes later today I’ll see if I can dig them up. From memory Puljujarvi + McDavid scores about 2.00 p/60 but most of that time includes Lucic (offensive black hole) on the left side. If you remove Lucic from that line JP’s scoring rate goes up to about 2.70 P/60, which is better than Nylander, Pasrnak and Rantanen at the same age. This kid has potential.

Yes, I remember that. Clearly less offence with Lucic present.

What I don’t recall (and don’t think you showed) is once McDavid is removed from the equation, is Puljujarvi + Lucic much different from Puljujarvi without Lucic. Certainly every ON ice metric is far better with Lucic than without in the overall sample, even if P/60 is not.

ArmchairGM

Ryan: Line tools provide GF ON/ 60 which is different than P/60.

NST line tool has GF/60 of 3.88 w/o Lucic.

3.32 for all 3 of them.

Jesse without either is 1.57

Jesse with Lucic no 97 is 1.29

Yeah, I had to work out the P/60 manually.

Ryan

ArmchairGM: I have posted the splits before, maybe if I get a few minutes later today I’ll see if I can dig them up. From memory Puljujarvi + McDavid scores about 2.00 p/60 but most of that time includes Lucic (offensive black hole) on the left side. If you remove Lucic from that line JP’s scoring rate goes up to about 2.70 P/60, which is better than Nylander, Pasrnak and Rantanen at the same age. This kid has potential.

Line tools provide GF ON/ 60 which is different than P/60.

NST line tool has GF/60 of 3.88 w/o Lucic.

3.32 for all 3 of them.

Jesse without either is 1.57

Jesse with Lucic no 97 is 1.29

ArmchairGM

jp: I can’t separate out the effects of Lucic+McDavid since the NST line tool seems not to be working at the moment, b

I have posted the splits before, maybe if I get a few minutes later today I’ll see if I can dig them up. From memory Puljujarvi + McDavid scores about 2.00 p/60 but most of that time includes Lucic (offensive black hole) on the left side. If you remove Lucic from that line JP’s scoring rate goes up to about 2.70 P/60, which is better than Nylander, Pasrnak and Rantanen at the same age. This kid has potential.

OriginalPouzar

jp

I can’t separate out the effects of Lucic+McDavid since the NST line tool seems not to be working at the moment,

I thought that was just me and my browser but I guess not. Its been broken for weeks, if not longer.

jp

Rube Foster: That particular narrative of Puljujarvi is not entirely accurate.Math demonstrates that Puljujarvi has performed well with McDavid. If you don’t agree with that, don’t place your disagreement with me, be mad at Math:)

The Oilers ran Jesse at the beginning of 2018 with Lucic and Strome.The line sawed off the opposition but could not piss a drop offensively.

To remedy this problem the Oilers brain trust determined the best course of action would be to yo-yo the young Finn in and out of the line-up and trade Strome.They also decided that the smart thing to do and the solution to their offensive woes was to keep giving cherry minutes including PP time to Lucic.

We now know how that story ended, Strome went on to score 18 goals in 63 games once he was unshackled from the offensive vacuum that is Lucic.And young Jesse was never provided with an opportunity to gain traction anywhere in the line-up, whether that be in Edmonton or Bakersfield.He was also playing with a chronic hip injury that required season-ending surgery.

Can we all agree that the reason Strome and Puljujarvi did not produce any offence for the first 20 games of the seasons was that they were lugging around the offensive black hole that is Milan Lucic?

Or are we going to run Jesse out of town like we did Strome, for the crime of not being able to score goals in the NHL whilst playing with Milan Lucic?

The moral of the story – who you play with matters in the NHL.If we want to unlock the offensive potential of Jesse Puljujarvi the Oilers have a very unique silver bullet,his name is Connor McDavid.

I’m generally a Jesse supporter, but a few things here.

1) Lucic sucks. I agree. But I don’t think we can pin all the failures of other Oilers players on him.

2) Strome is fine, but the 18 goals (+1 with the Oilers) is a career high. He hadn’t approached 0.5PPG for 3 season’s (2 with the Islanders and another one + with the oilers before he was traded). He’d averaged 11 goals a year on the 3 yrs prior to the trade. I don’t think Lucic can be blamed for his struggles to start this past season.

3) McDavid may be the silver bullet for Puljujarvi. And for those questioning the sample size, it’s over 400 minutes. That’s 2-3 seasons of first unit PP or PK time for instance. If that’s too small a sample size let us never speak again about who is and is not good on special teams (or who Chiasson may or may not be a drag on).

4) I digressed on the small sample size thing. Puljujarvi has been very good with McDavid. The problem is he’s been kinda terrible with everyone else. Career with McDavid 2.06P/60. Career without McDavid 0.83 P/60.
Most common linemates in order: Lucic, McDavid, Nuge, Strome, Khaira, Draisaitl, Caggiula, Maroon, Pouliot. The guy has had pretty good linemates even when without McDavid. This stuff about him being relegated to the 4th line is way overblown and only occurred for a short time this past season (career minutes with other centers: Letestu 64 min, Brodziak 51, Cave 34)

5) Lucic has actually been a positive influence on Puljujarvi. I can’t separate out the effects of Lucic+McDavid since the NST line tool seems not to be working at the moment, but Puljujarvi is 1.16P/60 with Lucic. 1.14P/60 overall for his career.
Check this out (JP career with Lucic/without Lucic):
CF% 52.2/48.3
FF% 52.7/48.8
SF% 50.4/47.7
GF% 53.5/41.9
xGF% 53.3/47.4
SCF% 52.8/47.6
HDCF% 53.9/42.9

Pinning JP and Strome’s struggles on Lucic seems completely unfair to me. And Puljujarvi has issues of his own. I’d still give him a chance with McDavid, but I feel like we should acknowledge that he hasn’t performed well in really any other situation.

OilFan en Puerto

Cassandra,

Cassandra, while I appreciate the conviction you have in your opinions, and you seem to ooze confidence! Do you mind me asking what industry you are in, what experiences career wise have led you to have such belief that you could navigate the hurdles better than Holland.

JimmyV1965

GordieHoweHatTrick: So put him on the first line

The problem with putting a rookie on the first line is they are facing the best forwards and dmen in the league each and every night. Ideally, you want to shelter these kids with other talented players on the second and third lines.

JimmyV1965

Scungilli Slushy:
Discounting any established player that failed on the Oilers recently is a false narrative.

Lucic has good underlying numbers and was never a great producer. Rieder was a smaller fast forward that was never a producer but had a role. Etc etc.

IF Tippet can get the team together we will see all boats rise with the tide. I don’t mean anything other than a consistent game in and out effort, Holland has to do the rest.

I think the defensive core is key to winning in the NHL, and the Oiler’s D core has been handled poorly given the talent there and acquisitions made.

Next season we have a lot of quality depth even if some are green. Which is why Holland I think doesn’t see that as a priority.

Maybe he’s angling to set up a deal, but he may also see there are bigger fish to fry.

St Louis D corp isn’t exactly a fantasy game group. Effectiveness and buy in mean a lot more. And the tools to be competent.

Nice post. I hope you’re right.

GordieHoweHatTrick

JimmyV1965: This is a real and spectacular problem when you don’t have any legit top six wingers. It’s great to have Benson on a line with RNH, but this becomes a massive challenge when the other winger is garbage. If a rookie is playing on the second line, he needs to be the third best player on that line. He needs to be the passenger feeding off the efforts of the vets. I think this is very much an under appreciated issue with our roster construction. We are simply making it more difficult for rookies to have success at the NHL level.

So put him on the first line

GordieHoweHatTrick

Rube Foster: That particular narrative of Puljujarvi is not entirely accurate.Math demonstrates that Puljujarvi has performed well with McDavid. If you don’t agree with that, don’t place your disagreement with me, be mad at Math:)

The Oilers ran Jesse at the beginning of 2018 with Lucic and Strome.The line sawed off the opposition but could not piss a drop offensively.

To remedy this problem the Oilers brain trust determined the best course of action would be to yo-yo the young Finn in and out of the line-up and trade Strome.They also decided that the smart thing to do and the solution to their offensive woes was to keep giving cherry minutes including PP time to Lucic.

We now know how that story ended, Strome went on to score 18 goals in 63 games once he was unshackled from the offensive vacuum that is Lucic.And young Jesse was never provided with an opportunity to gain traction anywhere in the line-up, whether that be in Edmonton or Bakersfield.He was also playing with a chronic hip injury that required season-ending surgery.

Can we all agree that the reason Strome and Puljujarvi did not produce any offence for the first 20 games of the seasons was that they were lugging around the offensive black hole that is Milan Lucic?

Or are we going to run Jesse out of town like we did Strome, for the crime of not being able to score goals in the NHL whilst playing with Milan Lucic?

The moral of the story – who you play with matters in the NHL.If we want to unlock the offensive potential of Jesse Puljujarvi the Oilers have a very unique silver bullet,his name is Connor McDavid.

Here here!
Or
Hear hear!

Jaxon

Lowetide: Did they trade down or out? I’m looking at the years go by and they seem to pick most every year, save for a run between 2009-12.

97 traded #22, first pick was #49. More: he was not yet GM at this draft, he was director of amateur scouting

98 first pick was #25, traded #41, picked #55 & #56
99 traded #23, #47, #59 and #91, first pick was #120
00 first pick was #29, picked #38, traded #64
01 traded #29, first pick was #62
02 traded #30, first pick was #58, picked #63
03 traded #27, first pick was #64
04 traded #29, and #64, there first pick was #97
05 first pick was #19, picked #42
06 traded #29, first pick was #41, picked #47, picked #62
07 first pick was #27, traded #58
08 first pick was #30, traded #61
09 traded #29, first pick was #32, picked #60
10 first pick was #21, picked #51
11 traded #24, first pick was #35, picked #48, #55
12 traded #19, first pick was #49
13 traded #18, first pick was #20, picked #48, and #58
14 first pick was #15, traded #48
15 first pick was #19, traded #49
16 traded #16, drafted #20, #46, and #53
17 first pick was #9, picked #38
18 first pick was #6, picked #30, #33, #36

From 1998 to 2012 (15 drafts) had only 6 picks in the top 32, traded out of the top round in 9 of 15 drafts (technically 10, but I’m considering the future Seattle 32 team league as first round for this purpose).

2011 was interesting, but 24 to 35 is a big gamble.
He made some great moves to stock the cupboards in 2013, 2016, and 2018. I’d really welcome those types of moves in Edmonton.

His team has also been very good at finding gems late in the draft and it’s good to see her has made some moves to improve Edmonton’s scouting team today.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: Sorry, that was supposed to be Ken Hitchcock and I was actually siding with you.

Every AHL player brought up last year was essentially saddled with sporadic minutes on the 4th line.

4th line is fine as long as it’s constructed the right way.

If you’re asking Rattie or JP eyc to be on a grinder banger line, fail.

If you have put a sheltered O line together to outscore weaker players then show us what you’ve got.

I feel McL and Hitch wanted a pint of blood first.

Times change, some people don’t.

Bulging Twine

FW’s requiring waivers next season:

McDavid
Draisattl
Nuge
Kassian
Chiasson
Puljujarvi
Lucic
Gagner
Granlund
Khaira
Brodziak
Jurco
Cave
Malone
Gambardella
Russell
Currie
———–
17

FW’s who can be sent down without waivers:

Nygaard
Haas
Marody
Yamamoto
Benson
McLeod
Hebig

Who are they willing/not willing to risk losing on waivers?

There are quite a few guys I would be okay risking losing on waivers, although not wanting to lose them.

Scungilli Slushy

Discounting any established player that failed on the Oilers recently is a false narrative.

Lucic has good underlying numbers and was never a great producer. Rieder was a smaller fast forward that was never a producer but had a role. Etc etc.

IF Tippet can get the team together we will see all boats rise with the tide. I don’t mean anything other than a consistent game in and out effort, Holland has to do the rest.

I think the defensive core is key to winning in the NHL, and the Oiler’s D core has been handled poorly given the talent there and acquisitions made.

Next season we have a lot of quality depth even if some are green. Which is why Holland I think doesn’t see that as a priority.

Maybe he’s angling to set up a deal, but he may also see there are bigger fish to fry.

St Louis D corp isn’t exactly a fantasy game group. Effectiveness and buy in mean a lot more. And the tools to be competent.

Rube Foster

rickithebear:
Most on here talk like social justice warriors.
Trite inaccurate unsupported opinions not supported by real facts.

What are these Holes?

PP unit PPG/60 fwds league rank
#21 Chaisson9.72
#26 Draisaitl 9.62
#31 Mcdavid 9.43
#37 RNH 9.25
A smart GM gives top unit as much of PPTOI
Cause PP#2 is below avg.

PPG fwd league rank PP goal mass
#6 Draisaitl 16 Ppg
#32 Mcdavid 9 PPG
#42 RNH 8 PPG
#42 Chaisson 8 PPG

Players with top 6 EVTOI play that have achieved in any of the last 4 seasons.
1st line by position EVG
MCdavid C
Draisaitl C,LW, RW
RNH C
Lucic LW in 3-2-1 system.
Granlund RW

Top 4 fwd EVG any of last 4 seasons
Kassian RW
Chaisson LW, RW
Puljujarvi RW

Top 6 fwd EVG any of last 4 seasons
Gagner RW
Khaira LW

Any one who questions Chaisson signing is lying to themselves and to others.
He is a first unit PP fwd with 1st/ 2nd line W EVG production.
The Chaisson narrative on her is delusional.

Jurco had 1st line EG pace in 2 of 4 seasons he played 29+ goals.
Top 4 EG pace in 3 of 4 seasons.

Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
Khaira – Gagner – Jurco

We have 6 direct open sh wingers for our top 9.
If we run 3-2-1 system then we would have 7.

The one weakness I pointed out about Puljujarvi was his direct open shot targeting.
Some of the worst since Scott Gomez.
Yet 2 years ago he achieved 2nd line winger EG mass.

We are talking 8 top 6 forward wingers.
These are results based facts.
Not constructed Narratives.

Today’s universities have departments that do not use data based theorems.
They use constructed narratives.
It sickens me!

Our holes are at
PK fwd.
Not one Fwd above PKGA/60 avg.

And
High games played performance 2D – 1G Low Open HD SH event Dmen
You want at least 5-6 to be this.
We have Larsson, Benning, Russell
Lagesson looks like a sure bet low open HD sh event Dmen.

A higher 3-1-1-1 structureresulted in GA season totals that were 40 – 50g higher than 16-17 3-2-1 Def structured season.
Once again a clear technical reason for not making the playoffs.
Not some constructed narrative.
That occupies minds trained in awful constructionist based uni.

Dear Mr. Bear,

I luv ya!
I’m thrilled to see you posting again because I take that as a sign of your recovering health!
But, I find reading your posts a little bit like reading the “other” side of the Cereal Box. I think I know what you’re talking about… but I’m never quite sure exactly what you’re saying or trying to explain.
You dear Sir are as confounding as you are entertaining, bless your heart.
I’ve never been accused of being a social justice warrior before… but if comprehension of your messages is the bar, colour me a snowflake:)

Respectfully,

Rube

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Come on, do I really have to explain it to you?

If your implication is that agreeing with someone who you agree with equates to insecurity then, yes, absolutely.

rickithebear

godot10: The Oilers can’t get help because they have no cap space.Cap management is a thing.The Oilers have $14 million in effectively dead cap….$10 million if you like Russell.

What a brutal constructionist Narative.
It is embarrassing the way our education system is teaching our children in a delusional non- realistic way.

Fact:
Shots that are in open space are 100% of the ones that go in.
Russel is the best Dman in the game at reducing corsi to 0% shots.

+ve Goal differential wins games.
You get that by increasing GF and reducing GA.
Anyone that conclude Russell is not one of the best GA reduction players in the game.
Is relying on a constructive narrative rather than the truth.
He has unreplaceable championship core value.

Constructive Narative is a product of institutions that are making people dumb illogical thinkers.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Pardon?

Come on, do I really have to explain it to you?

ArmchairGM

pts2pndr: Nygard is a plus skater, extremely fast, Marody is not.

Rieder is fast too. Still not a top-6 option.

Rebillled

OriginalPouzar,

I’m glad Tippett is looking at a lot of tape now. Looking at individuals and how they work in the group. Music.

Hopefully he’ll be on a Tippett tape parade all summer.

#fixthismess

rickithebear

Most on here talk like social justice warriors.
Trite inaccurate unsupported opinions not supported by real facts.

What are these Holes?

PP unit PPG/60 fwds league rank
#21 Chaisson 9.72
#26 Draisaitl 9.62
#31 Mcdavid 9.43
#37 RNH 9.25
A smart GM gives top unit as much of PPTOI
Cause PP#2 is below avg.

PPG fwd league rank PP goal mass
#6 Draisaitl 16 Ppg
#32 Mcdavid 9 PPG
#42 RNH 8 PPG
#42 Chaisson 8 PPG

Players with top 6 EVTOI play that have achieved in any of the last 4 seasons.
1st line by position EVG
MCdavid C
Draisaitl C,LW, RW
RNH C
Lucic LW in 3-2-1 system.
Granlund RW

Top 4 fwd EVG any of last 4 seasons
Kassian RW
Chaisson LW, RW
Puljujarvi RW

Top 6 fwd EVG any of last 4 seasons
Gagner RW
Khaira LW

Any one who questions Chaisson signing is lying to themselves and to others.
He is a first unit PP fwd with 1st/ 2nd line W EVG production.
The Chaisson narrative on her is delusional.

Jurco had 1st line EG pace in 2 of 4 seasons he played 29+ goals.
Top 4 EG pace in 3 of 4 seasons.

Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
Khaira – Gagner – Jurco

We have 6 direct open sh wingers for our top 9.
If we run 3-2-1 system then we would have 7.

The one weakness I pointed out about Puljujarvi was his direct open shot targeting.
Some of the worst since Scott Gomez.
Yet 2 years ago he achieved 2nd line winger EG mass.

We are talking 8 top 6 forward wingers.
These are results based facts.
Not constructed Narratives.

Today’s universities have departments that do not use data based theorems.
They use constructed narratives.
It sickens me!

Our holes are at
PK fwd.
Not one Fwd above PKGA/60 avg.

And
High games played performance 2D – 1G Low Open HD SH event Dmen
You want at least 5-6 to be this.
We have Larsson, Benning, Russell
Lagesson looks like a sure bet low open HD sh event Dmen.

A higher 3-1-1-1 structure resulted in GA season totals that were 40 – 50g higher than 16-17 3-2-1 Def structured season.
Once again a clear technical reason for not making the playoffs.
Not some constructed narrative.
That occupies minds trained in awful constructionist based uni.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Tippett? And Marody isn’t on the same level as JP, skill wise. Just about every NHL bottom-6 guy was a top-6 guy in a lower league. It’s not a legitimate development path for your #4 overall pick though.

Sorry, that was supposed to be Ken Hitchcock and I was actually siding with you.

Every AHL player brought up last year was essentially saddled with sporadic minutes on the 4th line.

Mr DeBakey

What role will be play in Edmonton? Based on the current depth chart, I have Benson as the No. 2 LW on a line with Draisatl and Chiasson.

I also have McDavid with Kassian & Dzingel [the new Eberle].
In this scenerio, Nuge is paired up in threes with Granlund and Panik [the new Pisani].
Gagner centers the 4th line with Khaira and Currie.

Balance.
Every line ready and able to contribute.

I got nuthin’

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Albertan’s inferiority complex never ceases to amaze.

Pardon?

pts2pndr

ArmchairGM: Marody is quite a bit younger than Nygard though,and the Swede is often mentioned as a top-6 option.

Nygard is a plus skater, extremely fast, Marody is not.

€√¥£€^$

On May 4th I posted a Lucic for Sutter, Russell for Neal, Eriksson for Frolik 3-way deal on Capfriendly.

I wonder if this floats anyone’s boats…..

defmn

OriginalPouzar: Leon has proven to be able to drive offence away from McDavid, even with middling and tweener linemates.The problem in the past was his defensive inconsistency (not helped by tweener linemates) and leaking goals against.

Recall, the one thing to be always thankful to Ken Hitchcock for was what he did with Drai.From accounts, it was indeed tough love, however, the player that Drai was for the last few months of the season was different and incredible.Even take away the offence and the goal scoring and the fact that on as many nights as not he was the driver of the offence every bit as much if not more than McDavid, his overall game was VASTLY improved. The consistency and effort that he showed shift in and shift out, in all zone, including the defensive zone, was magnificent.He turned in to a plus defensive center in addition to the offence and is also the team’s best faceoff guy.

Drai is 100% ready for that 2C role assuming he doesn’t revert or regress back.

I agree with this. I don’t want to get into a discussion as to whether or not McDavid is worth $12.5 mil per year but I do think that if somebody makes that much the team cannot afford to provide him with a $8.5 mil winger and expect to have balanced scoring.

Time to separate McDavid & Draisaitl and make them both drive their own line regardless of how effective they are together.

There is no path forward that I can see until they make that move.

jmo

ArmchairGM

Bag of Pucks: You’re dead wrong about this. Sather not only put Messier on the 4th line more than once. He banished him to the A for missing a flight. There are numerous examples of Red Wings who cut their teeth in the bottom 6 before elevating to the higher skill lines, Datsyuk and Fedorov included.

I’ve provided ample reasoning for my argument while all you’ve done is shout your opinions and now insult.

We’re done here.

Datsyuk and Federov didn’t start on the 4rh line, sorry. And sitting a guy for insubordination isn’t a development plan, I.e. they didn’t sit dow in the summer and decide that Messier would bounce around the lineup. So those “examples” don’t prove your point at all.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: The Todd McLellan and Dave Tippett plan – see Cooper Marody.

Tippett? And Marody isn’t on the same level as JP, skill wise. Just about every NHL bottom-6 guy was a top-6 guy in a lower league. It’s not a legitimate development path for your #4 overall pick though.

godot10

OmJo: I was responding to the idea that teams don’t want to give us good players in trades because we have McDavid.

The Oilers can’t get help because they have no cap space. Cap management is a thing. The Oilers have $14 million in effectively dead cap….$10 million if you like Russell.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Exactly and agreed.

Albertan’s inferiority complex never ceases to amaze.

Rube Foster

GMB3: I don’t disagree, but I feel a lot of posters and people on twitter come to the conclusion that JP makes CMD better and I don’t see it. I’ve seen the math, but it seems relatively inconsequential at that sample size.

JP has not helped the team. He’s low event at least. I’m all for giving him time on McDavids wing, but I don’t think the math proves anything at that size of a sample.

I am being a bit redundant here, but there are presently only two forwards in the line-up that one can actually say help to make Connor better – Leon and Nuge.

The point of the exercise I am extolling is “How do we make Jesse better”?

Seeing as it’s such a beautiful day I’ll grant you that the Connor and Jesse data set is awfully small… but it is intriguing!

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Marody is quite a bit younger than Nygard though,and the Swede is often mentioned as a top-6 option.

I don’t think he should be mentioned as a top 6 option but, yes, he has been.

I think he should be mentioned as an option to make the team in a bottom 6/PK role – to expect Nygard, with his zero games in the NHL and non-top scoring rates in Sweden, to be a top 6 players, well, seems, unreasonable to me.

Rube Foster

JimmyV1965: This isn’t a development league. The coach will construct a lineup that gives him the best chance to win. And I highly doubt that means JP on the first line. It’s fine to tinker when your out of contention, but not to start the season. So maybe you do it after 20 games when the season is written off.

Have you seen our present line-up? Only Reja thinks the current line-up is in contention.

And I for one, like I do every year, I hope that Reja is right!

But really, given the current line-up, who NOT named Leon or Nuge has a better skill set to play with Connor than Jesse?

EDIT: I do appreciate the fact that you are consigned to the current iteration of the Oilers being out of contention after the first 20 games and the season being “written off” a quarter of the way down the road… same as it ever was.

Which reading between the lines, really means you don’t believe this version of the Oilers to be contenders in any way shape or form. Which further means it’s silly to wait until we’re 7-13 to try Jesse and Connor together… just say’in.

ArmchairGM

Bag of Pucks: The Oilers must agree with you. They’ve been fast tracking prospects into tough minute roles forever.

Are we talking about Jesse still? He’s not a prospect any longer, he’s a 3 year veteran. He has played on all 4 lines and in the AHL, yet it’s universally accepted that the Oilers have screwed up his development. They shouldn’t hold him back now, he should be placed wherever he and the team succeed best.

ArmchairGM

GMB3: The math is such a small sample size. It does not definitively mean he deserves to be there.

Bits of 3 years combined is no longer a tiny sample size. And others got that opportunity with no prerequisites at all, why should Jesse be treated differently?

OriginalPouzar

BagofPucks: How long do you think it would’ve taken McDavid to kill it on the 4th line and move to the 3rd?

I would guess a game or two max. Do you think those 2 games would really have stunted his development?

Connor would’ve climbed the depth chart like a house on fire. This process would not have held him back.

By contrast, Jesse has not killed it anywhere on the depth chart. This is a prospect badly in need of patience and dues paying. He looks lost in the Top 6

The Oilers used your development plan on Jesse last year.

He got sent to the AHL and killed it – 4 points in 4 games, 17 shots, fight, best player on the ice in two of the 4 games.

One would think a bigger sample size is required but, as per your post above, a game or two is enough.

He was brought up – Hitch put him up the lineup, that lasted a period and he was demoted.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: He was definitely the driver on that line but his advanced age is huge at that stage – what Benson did as a 20-year old rookie is simply more impressive.

Of course, that doesn’t discount Marody being an option for this year’s roster.

Marody is quite a bit younger than Nygard though, and the Swede is often mentioned as a top-6 option.

GMB3

Rube Foster: They said the same thing about Yakupov and McDavid.

You know, it’s not like there is a long lineup of offensively skilled wingers suited up for the Oilers blocking Jesse’s path.

Why they wouldn’t consider at least trying the two together for a period of time is … so Oilers.

I don’t disagree, but I feel a lot of posters and people on twitter come to the conclusion that JP makes CMD better and I don’t see it. I’ve seen the math, but it seems relatively inconsequential at that sample size.

JP has not helped the team. He’s low event at least. I’m all for giving him time on McDavids wing, but I don’t think the math proves anything at that size of a sample.

Bag of Pucks

ArmchairGM: Every NHL coach who ever lived disagrees with your development plan. Are you the smartest man in the room or are you dead wrong? I’ll bet the latter.

You’re dead wrong about this. Sather not only put Messier on the 4th line more than once. He banished him to the A for missing a flight. There are numerous examples of Red Wings who cut their teeth in the bottom 6 before elevating to the higher skill lines, Datsyuk and Fedorov included.

I’ve provided ample reasoning for my argument while all you’ve done is shout your opinions and now insult.

We’re done here.

JimmyV1965

Rube Foster: They said the same thing about Yakupov and McDavid.

You know, it’s not like there is a long lineup of offensively skilled wingers suited up for the Oilers blocking Jesse’s path.

Why they wouldn’t consider at least trying the two together for a period of time is … so Oilers.

This isn’t a development league. The coach will construct a lineup that gives him the best chance to win. And I highly doubt that means JP on the first line. It’s fine to tinker when your out of contention, but not to start the season. So maybe you do it after 20 games when the season is written off.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: You’d put your skill prospects on the 4th line? WTF kind of “development plan” is that?!

The Todd McLellan and Dave Tippett plan – see Cooper Marody.

OriginalPouzar

OilSafety: I’m hoping for a lucic Russell puljujarvi for Neal bennet exchange. Or Russell puljujarvi for elhers.

I would posit you they would need to add a very substantial piece to the Ehlers trade – like a Samorukov piece.

Rube Foster

OriginalPouzar: Leon has proven to be able to drive offence away from McDavid, even with middling and tweener linemates.The problem in the past was his defensive inconsistency (not helped by tweener linemates) and leaking goals against.

Recall, the one thing to be always thankful to Ken Hitchcock for was what he did with Drai.From accounts, it was indeed tough love, however, the player that Drai was for the last few months of the season was different and incredible.Even take away the offence and the goal scoring and the fact that on as many nights as not he was the driver of the offence every bit as much if not more than McDavid, his overall game was VASTLY improved. The consistency and effort that he showed shift in and shift out, in all zone, including the defensive zone, was magnificent.He turned in to a plus defensive center in addition to the offence and is also the team’s best faceoff guy.

Drai is 100% ready for that 2C role assuming he doesn’t revert or regress back.

McDavid – Puljujarvi
Nuge – Leon

Actually appear to resemble the framework for a competive top six.
If the Oilers pair Leon and Connor together, you’re asking Nuge to climb Everest every night.

OriginalPouzar

dustrock: Oh absolutely. I meant there is a lingering resentment of the organization for getting McDavid after historic incompetence.

Historical incompetence or very similar incompetence to the Pens themselves in the years leading up to drafting, and immediately after drafting Crosby?

If you want historic incompetence, take a look the the Red Wings for two decades before they got good.

ArmchairGM

Bag of Pucks: How long do you think it would’ve taken McDavid to kill it on the 4th line and move to the 3rd?

I would guess a game or two max. Do you think those 2 games would really have stunted his development?

Connor would’ve climbed the depth chart like a house on fire. This process would not have held him back.

By contrast, Jesse has not killed it anywhere on the depth chart. This is a prospect badly in need of patience and dues paying. He looks lost in the Top 6

Every NHL coach who ever lived disagrees with your development plan. Are you the smartest man in the room or are you dead wrong? I’ll bet the latter.

OriginalPouzar

OmJo: Crosby has been with the Pens since 2005-06. Since then they’ve acquired Hossa, Kunitz, Neil, Kovalev, Jokinen, Hornqvist, Perron (heh) and *takes breath* Kessel all from trades.

If the Pens can get help with both Crosby and Malkin, surely we can, no?

I don’t imagine the Oilers have McDavid has any factor on if another manager transacts or doesn’t transact with the Oilers.

If a manager has a deal on the table that he thinks helps his team, he’s not going to not do it because the deal could also benefit a team with McDavid.

That is silly.

ArmchairGM

Bag of Pucks: That’s entitlement talking imo

Jesse has proven none of those things. He’s closer to bust than superstar, and sure-fire? Seriously. How can you post that with a straight face?

That’s certainly the way he was viewed on opening night 3 years ago.