Can’t You Hear Me Knocking (on your door)

by Lowetide

Jesse Puljujarvi’s agent opened the door a little yesterday. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves but it does give us a chance to discuss the player and why he’s so important to the Oilers.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • New Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

How could the Oilers (and NHL scouts) be so wrong about Jesse Puljujarvi? Is it possible the Aho-Laine connection pushed JP along? That’s a reflection with legs, but no one could reasonably have predicted this career path.

How bad is it? Not bat at all, once you let the proper air out of JP’s offense. Let’s start with Puljujarvi as a player and his offensive ability from draft year through today.

2015-16 Sm-Liiga: 50, 13-15-28 (NHLE: 21.6)

2016-17 AHL: 39, 12-16-28 (NHLE: 27.6)

2017-18 NHL 65, 12-8-20 (NHLE: 25.2)

2018-19 NHL 45, 4-5-9 (NHLE: 16.4)

Offensively, the scouting reports may have been shy. However, he’s a big, strong winger, with a quick release. Great passing, transports the puck well, I thought his positioning was often on point. That’s a nice resume, even without the projected offense. JP is no longer a No. 4 overall pick, but he has value. Ideally, Dave Tippett gets a chance to unlock the player in 2019-20. He doesn’t riff well with the captain but the numbers are strong with McDavid.

HOLLAND’S BETS VERSUS CHIARELLI’S BETS

Do you remember when Peter Chiarelli would talk about his ’94’s? He had a large group of forwards, born in 1994, and needed at least two to cash as useful top-9 forwards. Here’s what each man did during the Chiarelli era:

Drake Caggiula 182, 32-29-61 .335

Jujhar Khaira 154, 15-27-42 .272

Anton Slepyshev 102, 10-13-23 .225

None of these men emerged as consistent top-9 options during Chiarelli’s time and only Khaira remains. It was not a successful endeavor. Holland has (potentially) a better group to bet on:

Jesse Puljujarvi 139, 17-20-37 .266

Kailer Yamamoto 26, 1-4-5 .192

Tyler Benson 68, 15-51-66 in Bakersfield

Kirill Maksimov 63, 40-39-79 with Niagara IceDogs (OHL)

Holland, and the Oilers, badly need one of these men to cash and soon. I think Benson and Puljujarvi (should he sign) will play in the NHL this season, not as certain about Yamamoto and Maksimov is probably in the mix a year from now.

Holland is betting on internal options for the skill lines, this much is true. Adding Puljujarvi to this group helps, but JP may be on the third line for more of his NHL career than anticipated on draft day.

What is Holland thinking? At this point I imagine he’ll attempt to find one or two reasonable scoring options (Sven Baertschi may shake loose) to the current group. Holland needs what Peter Chiarelli badly needed and never received: A substantial scoring option to replace Taylor Hall. Replacing Hall isn’t Holland’s fault, but it is his responsibility. No matter what happens to Jesse, he is not the answer to the Hall issue, and Holland hasn’t yet made an attempt to replace Hall’s production.

I believe, and have said, Holland has kicked that problem down the road to next summer. We don’t know how deep the team went on truly skilled free agents, only that he didn’t grab one and that (free agency) is his modus operandi. Holland is willing to sacrifice the 2020 playoffs in order to set up next season. I can’t say he’s wrong. In the meantime, Dave Tippett has one year to find useful soldiers. I sincerely hope Jesse Puljujarvi is one of them.

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HT Joe

HT Joe,

Texmex: sorry, I meant to end my response by agreeing with you… draft and develop is the only way to dig out of this. That and I would add keeping players we did draft and develop if at all possible (e.g., Nurse)

HT Joe

texmex: Holland can’t force players to come to Edmonton. The reality is, Edmonton is not high on the most desirable cities to play list.
Draft and develop.

Edmonton is what it is. But the Oilers (a) being among the very worst run sports franchises for over a decade, and (b) having media reps publicly putting down players (e.g., insinuating flakiness) probably doesn’t help matters.

Until the Oilers look like a professionally-run organization off the ice and a potential Stanley cup contender on the ice, it wouldn’t matter how Edmonton stacks up as a city – who would want to sign on to a train wreck?

Jethro Tull

pts2pndr: Will being right make you happy? If you are wrong will you be man enough to admit it? While I understand your frustration is this life changing for you? Is the cost to you worth it? When all is said and done this is a first world problem.

Wow. Where to start. First, no, being wrong will make me happy. It means everything is coming up Oilers.

Second; “Man” enough? In this day and age? Infers women are naturally wrong and don’t admit it. How about “have the integrity to admit I’m wrong.” That’s easy. I’m wrong all the time. It allows me to be right once in awhile.

Third: First world problem? Where have I stated that this affects me more than say, starvation in a third world country. I honestly don’t know what you’re reaching for here. Some kind of pseudo-psychology? You’d have to do better than that.

texmex

DBO:
Dzingel to Carolina foryears, $6.75 total. So less per year then Ferland.

Ouch. That would have been a nice addition at that price point for the Oilers.Trying hard not to complain about Holland, but what’s the point of the sekera buyout if we don’t get in on any impact free agent. Hoping there is a deal that brings back a good top 6 players and that cap space is needed. Better not be an Eberle for Strome deal where we never used the freed up cap space.

Holland can’t force players to come to Edmonton. The reality is, Edmonton is not high on the most desirable cities to play list.

Draft and develop.

Cassandra

OriginalPouzar:
Lets not forget that Dzingel is really a 30-40 point player.

He would have helped the Oilers but I doubt he’ll be value for his contract – even with what he signed for.

He had a similar year to Chiasson, with an all-career heater early in the season and, other than that, very mediocre.

With his heater Chiasson still scored at 4th line rates.

Dzingel, on the other hand, put up more than 2 pts per 60 with both Ottawa and Columbus, and before that has three years in a row of scoring more than 1.5 per 60.

They aren’t in the same ballpark of player. I have doubts about Dzingel but the contract is pretty good for a UFA. Great signing by the Hurricanes.

Chiasson, on the other hand, should be playing on a 1 year deal near the minimum for the rest of his life. He’s a smaller, less skilled version of Pat Maroon.

OriginalPouzar

Lets not forget that Dzingel is really a 30-40 point player.

He would have helped the Oilers but I doubt he’ll be value for his contract – even with what he signed for.

He had a similar year to Chiasson, with an all-career heater early in the season and, other than that, very mediocre.

ArmchairGM

WTF is wrong with Holland?

OriginalPouzar

Cap space from the Sekera buyout has already been used – it was used to gain flexibility from June 29 through the entire regular season.

The team currently has apx $3.5M in cap space and the GM has been express that he needs to add a 3C to the lineup – be that a UFA like Sheehan or Lindberg or Boyle or Marleau or trying to trade for a guy like Cody Eakin.

Without the buyout there would currently be about $500K in cap space, without the 3C – that isn’t even enough cushion to go in to the season.

If we have under $1M of cap space going in to the season, we would likely not even be able to call up a player from the AHL when someone gets hurt and goes on IR.

Even if another material player is not signed, although I don’t agree with the buyout of Sekera and wish Holland would have found another way to free up $3M in space (i.e. trade Russell with $1M retained, for example), the opening up of $3M (give or take) was and is imperative to the bets that Holland has made, the potential ability to make another move this off-season and the ability to manage the team during the season.

As an aside, Strome at $3.1M last year was more valuable than Eberle at $6M last year – just saying.

OriginalPouzar

Dzingel signs for 2 years with Carolina.

DBO

Dzingel to Carolina for years, $6.75 total. So less per year then Ferland.

Ouch. That would have been a nice addition at that price point for the Oilers. Trying hard not to complain about Holland, but what’s the point of the sekera buyout if we don’t get in on any impact free agent. Hoping there is a deal that brings back a good top 6 players and that cap space is needed. Better not be an Eberle for Strome deal where we never used the freed up cap space.

Glovjuice

Bulging Twine:
I have an Archie Henderson story.

For those who don’t know he was a 6’6″ goon in the AHL in the 80’s.If you were a goon in the AHL in the 80’s you were a tough sob.

Well, in the early 90’s, I had a coach that moved up with us from Midget through Jr and when we graduated Jr he found a men’s league to put us in.We had success as a group in Midget and Jr but it became clear early that we were no match for these men in this league.There were police teams and firefighter teams and these guys were solid, and so much stronger than us.We were a bunch of skinny 20 year olds.I remember the firefighter team especially took it to us.We were no match and as the season wore on we were losing our confidence and were clearly intimidated.

One game I show up late to the dressing room and start getting changed.I didn’t hear it all but our coach was going on about this one tough guy and how he’ll eat you up and don’t piss him off etc.I don’t know if I was having a bad day but it was making me super angry.Here we were a bunch of skinny scared kids going out to try to play and our frickin coach was instilling more fear and intimidation into the group.Why did he always do that, it was the last thing we needed!

I make it out in time to start the game, no warm up.I’m lined up against this giant with long gangly arms and a fighters nose.His shirt didn’t make it all the way to his gloves and it exposed his thick wrists.I remember his elbows.He had big elbows!I thought this must be the guy that coach was talking about!F the coach.

I am angry and I want to show the boys we don’t have to be scared and to prove to the coach we are more than he thinks we are.

The puck drops and I take my stick and push the giants skates out from behind.Anyone who’s had this happens knows that even if you have the stability of Kurt Browning you are going down.Down goes the giant, after doing the oh crap scramble.

The puck goes into their zone in my corner, I go after it and feel this ominous shadow chasing me.Luckily their defenceman got to it first and fired it down to our zone.I bust it back to our zone (I’d never backchecked so hard in my life) and eventually it ends up a face off in our zone.

I line up and here comes the giant, slashes my stick and is swearing threats.I’m still in F-U mode and now boosted by the knowledge that I’ve got to the giant.See boys!

The puck drops and swoosh I take out his legs again.Down goes the giant a second time.

Soon the puck goes over the glass and I quickly skate to the bench.

The giant skates by our bench towards his.I expect anger and swears or worse.Instead, without looking at our bench, and without acknowledging any player, he directs his words to coach.Calmly and confidently he says, “coach, tell your players to settle down, someone is going to get hurt”.It wasn’t so much of a threat, it was more like a fatherly warning that you knew had truth in it.

Coach yells to me incredulously, “what are you doing!Do you know who that is?!That’s Archie Henderson!He was a goon in the AHL”.I had missed that part in the pregame speech.I knew that he could literally kill me in a fight.

I calmed down after that and thankfully, he left me alone.
I almost died

Great stuff.

Glovjuice

Rube Foster: OP, you forgot to mention that the“Jesse Regression” of 2018/19 can partly be attributed to his playing with a chronic and painful hip(s) injury.

And that his 19 year old season resulted in Jesse posting the 7th most goals per game on the 2017/18 Edmonton Oilers, which is third line production on an NHL Hockey team… a bad NHL Hockey team, but third line production none the less.

I am of the school that If you do not learn from history, you are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past.

I do not believe the solution to the Jesse Situation is to ask him to perform for the Oilers on what appears to project as a very poor NHL third line.it doesn’t take a crystal ball to predict that more of Jesse playing with Lucic and a third line pivot will deliver more of the same – Poor third line scoring metrics, he’s already proven he can do that for us and no one including Jesse finds those results satisfactory.

A modest proposal based on recent historical analysis of our beloved Edmonton Oilers.

Exhibit A – Here’s a blast from the past from LT’s childhood favorite The Hockey News – OILERS’ MCDAVID-POULIOT-YAKUPOV TRIO TURNING INTO ONE OF NHL’S BEST LINES

And a link to the article for those with Oiler induced PTSD or short memories.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/oilers-mcdavid-pouliot-yakupov-trio-turning-into-one-of-nhls-best-lines

The ConnYak Poo line never lasted more than a handful of games due to Yakupov’s season-ending injury due to the Ref using Yak’s knee as a Barcalounger and a healthy dose of Oiler’s karma.McLellan never for moment reunited this trio or the ConnYak duo before Chia dumped Nail for a third-round draft pick.

Why the Oilers didn’t have the patience to pump Yak’s tires with a month of hockey reunited with Connor prior to shipping him out of town for a presumably larger return is as mystifying as a Strome for Spooner or a Caggiula for Manning trade.

I do understand that you “you gotta earn your ice time” types will bristle and be upset at any suggestion of a Jesse and Connor pairing. Take comfort in knowing that you have lots of company in your opinion with established NHL Hockey minds such as Chiarelli, McLellan, MacT, KLowe and a long list of Oiler Management luminaries.

A month of Jesse playing wing on Connor McDavid’s line produces 1 of 2 results.

1) The Math is validated and Connor and Jesse are a terrific fit and produce excellent offensive results.
2) The Math is wrong and Connor and Jesse are a poor fit and deliver middling to poor results.

The odds are dramatically lopsided in favour of Result 1. Why? Connor McDavid.

Our esteemed group has arrived at the hypothetical conclusion that Jesse’s unrest with the Edmonton Oilers stems from his erratic and nonconstructive handling by Oilers Management OR there are “chemistry” issues in the locker room. Perhaps it is a healthy combination of both.

Puljujarvi playing wing with the best hockey player on the planet addresses any concerns about Management’s deployment and would demonstrate to Team Jesse that Holland and Tippet are sincerely different from the past Oiler regimes.

After a month on Connor’s wing, the Oilers and Jesse can and should reassess.If success abounds, Jesse would not be the first 21 year old in the world to change his mind and his heart regarding what once seemed like an insurmountable issue.

Or, should Jesse find success on the ice but still arrives at the conclusion he is not happy in Edmonton for reasons real or imagined. His value as an asset will surely be demonstrably higher than it is now and the likelihood of a material asset for his return increases in certainty.

Or, the results are middling or poor.At that point, I believe the best option would be to loan Jesse out to his Finnish pro team to see if he can regain his mojo.Which essentially puts us right back to where we are now… insert shoulder shrug here.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

This is simply fantastic. What a post.

JimmyV1965

My dream of JP playing in Europe is dying a rather painful death. If he wants to play for Jokiert in the KHL, he world have to sign very soon. The season starts Sept. 11. I think Liga starts in mid August.

JimmyV1965

pts2pndr: Thank you. While I may not agree with you some of the time your posts are always well thought out and reasonable. In the short term we have to give Holland a break. It is not on him that our previous management has left us wanting.

Thanks for that. I appreciate it. Kinda blows a hole in my opinion that I am always right though.

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: I have no idea where you get this take – because I don’t equate your position and Jimmy’s position?

I have a hugely minority opinion on various topics and offering am the differing view deviating from “the pack”

Actually, I think our opinions diverge quite substantially. If I’m correct, you will be quite happy to start the year with the existing lineup, save for a few minor tweaks. I’ll be quite disappointed if Holland doesn’t add a top six winger or top four dman. I do agree that my position is the more mainstream opinion and yours is likely in the minority. Not that this makes either of us right.

pts2pndr

Jethro Tull: Nice pack mentality. No room for differing views.

I remember a poster a few years ago here saying Oilers fans deserve the Oilers.

It’s true, for guys like you. Beating the same dead horse for ever until one guy’s arm gets tired and someone new takes over. Stay safe, never innovate, never break the chain. And you wonder why it turns out like always, thinking “if only player X was nurtured” and “well now that sets us up for three years down the road”. Always excusing and finding reasons for when in three years we’re in a worse position.

You mistake concept for practice, not understanding that to instigate any change, a disturbance must be introduced and managed.

We’ll see. This team, as it stands is at very best a playoff bubble team. And that’s relying on career years from players well past it and a PDO explosion. And it will be forever, unless the whole ethos changes.

Will being right make you happy? If you are wrong will you be man enough to admit it? While I understand your frustration is this life changing for you? Is the cost to you worth it? When all is said and done this is a first world problem.

pts2pndr

Reja: Hollandand Yzerman OBC Red Wing version need to feed offeach other. Holland will take the first couple of years because Steviehas respect for his Elders.

Give peace a chance. Pessimists are rarely disappointed but it is a not the way to live. Just one mans opinion. Believe in yourself and believe in those around you.

Bulging Twine

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Bulging Twine,

– sounds like the giant you played and now our scout had a good attitude.

Really amazing mercy and self control

pts2pndr

JimmyV1965: Holland has been on the job for two months and you’re making pronouncements on his performance. I’m certainly not thrilled so far and I’ll be less than impressed if he fails to add one good player to this lineup. But I think it’s foolish to judge someone’s performance after two months. How can you possibly say he is turning the team into the 00’s Wings? He’s been on the job for two months. There’s miles of road ahead and lots of time before the season starts. There are still multiple teams out there in cap hell. They have to address this before the season starts. There’s plenty of time to make changes. Will Holland capitalize on this? Maybe not. But I’m not judging him two months into his job.

Thank you. While I may not agree with you some of the time your posts are always well thought out and reasonable. In the short term we have to give Holland a break. It is not on him that our previous management has left us wanting.

Bulging Twine

Darth Tu:
OriginalPouzar,

This is excellent. I’m glad that you’re alive to tell this story – could have had a very, very different ending.

Thank you.
Yes, think Ovechkin – Svechnikov but worse

pts2pndr

ArmchairGM:
Minnesota would be a great landing place for Puljujarvi, just sayin.

I would think Winnipeg would be in the top three.

pts2pndr

Dustylegnd: Archie Henderson is a relic left over form the Slap Shot days, he is not a bright individual I have met him on several occasions when he was doing amateur scouting for Washington etc etc etc…ther is nothing progressive or innovative about Archie….he is the brother of Donnie Henderson, the Linesman that got cross checked from behind by Wideman

The fact that Tyler Wright is Joining the club may not bode well for Bobby Green…which is a positive in my mind

If you have ever been in the decision makers chair you would understand that there is value in a base evaluation. You take that individuals evaluation and work from there. Sometimes there is great value from all that is not new. All that is old school is not in of itself wrong. To understand where you need to go you first have to know from where you began.

OriginalPouzar

kooler:
Everybody seems to benefit from Mcdavid and Draisatl…..so why not just drop JP on there and boost his confidence, it’s not like the 3rd on that line is breaking the top 10 in scoring. JP can still be a decent placeholder on that line and raise his stock. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Chaisson’’s deal is a result ofplaying with those two and PK opportunities.

Chiasson scored 3 goals at evens with McDavid – his production last year was based on a huge heater early in the year with Drai and Rieder and PP prodcution, mainly in the first half.

His even strength offence dried the game he was taken off of Drai’s wing and put with McDavid – an inexplicable decision by the then coach.

rickithebear

It surprises me how many Canadian university trained people on here ignore
Correct results based data cause it does not fit the narrative they are presenting.

I list the evg goal production to achieve 1st, 2nd, 3rd line center, LW, RW
Which outlines the forwards with the highest evg mass per season.
A result of density & volume rates paired with high % Gm played performance.

Points per game.
1. Does not look at the affect of a players failure to maintain a full season games played .
Were you are excluding volume affect on the goal mass ( total formula).
2. It Treats different success rate actions the same in even situation which they are not.
Direct shot ev Goals can be 60% more efficient by pocession than 1st assist passes.
Direct shot ev goals can be 100% more efficient by pocession than 2nd assist passes.

I used to use ppg until I realized it does not provide a players true pocession performance.
This is independent of team, comp, ZS, NZ trap, HD area abandonment.

Perfect example would be Caggulia who is a 2 Nd line evg production winger 8 evg in a 61 gm season.
I e top 6.
Yet you look at his achieving a high goal mass rate as a flaw, cause he does not accumalate highly pocession inefficient 1st & 2nd assists.

Just brutal game analysis folks.

The same silly logic exists in football.
They look at yards as a major production factor driving contracts.
Cleveland got one of the best receivers in the game according to MSM.

WTF.

Wide Reciever Cummulative TD mass 2017 & 2018.
#1 A. Brown 24 TD now with raiders for a 2nd & 3rd.
#32 OBJ 9 TD

By just facts:
Top 6 even goal forward by position
Macdavid 1st line center
Draisaitl 1st line center, LW, RW
RNH
1st line center when games played is not a performance issue.
2 Nd line center with gm played issue.
Lucic
1st line LW in 3-2-1 dominate system
3rd line LW in 3-1-1-1 dominate system
Chaisson
1st line Winger in combined 1st/3rd line role.
2nd line winger in combined 2nd/3rd line role.
Kassian
1st line winger in combined 1st/4th line role.
2nd line winger in combined 2nd/4th line role.

Goals win games!
Passes might get in net if someone else does it!

OriginalPouzar

JethroTull: Nice pack mentality. No room for differing views.

I have no idea where you get this take – because I don’t equate your position and Jimmy’s position?

I have a hugely minority opinion on various topics and offering am the differing view deviating from “the pack”

kooler

Everybody seems to benefit from Mcdavid and Draisatl…..so why not just drop JP on there and boost his confidence, it’s not like the 3rd on that line is breaking the top 10 in scoring. JP can still be a decent placeholder on that line and raise his stock. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Chaisson’’s deal is a result of playing with those two and PK opportunities.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Holland’s summer so far looks very much like Chiarelli’s summer last year.

Last summer Chiarelli didn’t harm the long term future of the team – what he’s been heavily critisized for.

Of course in the 2-3 months leading up to this summer, there were signings of non-established and massively struggling 30 plus goalies to big contracts, trading away picks and incumbent wingers for bafflings d-men (Manning, Wideman, Petrovic), etc.

Jethro Tull

defmn: I don’t question that for a minute. What I was pointing out is that every country and every language finds that bias in a percentage of their population. Having lived in Asia and Europe I’m pretty confident in my opinion that the English aren’t anywhere close to the French or Chinese when it comes to cultural arrogance.

Not even within a country mile, imo.

No worries. I’m not mentioning how we smashed the Aussies today either.?

defmn

Jethro Tull:
defmn,

I am 100% old country English. When I say “unconscious racism”, there isn’t a positive light that it can be spun in. Maybe I worded it too strong. Oblivious ignorance of other culture’s intelligence may be a better fit.

I too have been around the world where the British way of speaking the local lingo is to speak English louder and slower. I’ve also seen us spin what non native English speakers say under the pretense that the speaker cannot possibly know what they’re saying!

I don’t question that for a minute. What I was pointing out is that every country and every language finds that bias in a percentage of their population. Having lived in Asia and Europe I’m pretty confident in my opinion that the English aren’t anywhere close to the French or Chinese when it comes to cultural arrogance.

Not even within a country mile, imo. 😉

Jethro Tull

JimmyV1965: Your logic is spectacularly flawed. I actually agree with some of what you say, not all, but I choose to reserve judgement on the GM after only two months on the job. And I certainly wouldn’t think anyone is a bad person because their opinion differs from mine.

I may be wrong, but I think you’re referring to confirmation bias. This would work something like this:

I really don’t like the Holland hiring and my subconscious ego requires me to be right. Therefore, every move he makes will be judged through this lens. In my personal case, however, I didn’t like the Holland hiring, but I’m still trying to reserve judgement.

Yep, that’s confirmation bias alright. That’s not what’s going on here. What’s going on is treating Holland like he’s a rookie GM that’s only been here 2 months instead of one of the most experienced people ever who has a very recent body of work with which to judge him on.

Jethro Tull

OriginalPouzar: I am not and I apologize if my post indicated as such.

I have lots of time for your reasoned opinion on Holland – I do think you will be disapointed with your requirement for a top 6 forward/top 4 d-man for a pass – this year – next off-season, although cap will be somewhat limited still, there should be numerous ELC contracts on the roster and the hopeful more realistic ability to move out some contracts.

Nice pack mentality. No room for differing views.

I remember a poster a few years ago here saying Oilers fans deserve the Oilers.

It’s true, for guys like you. Beating the same dead horse for ever until one guy’s arm gets tired and someone new takes over. Stay safe, never innovate, never break the chain. And you wonder why it turns out like always, thinking “if only player X was nurtured” and “well now that sets us up for three years down the road”. Always excusing and finding reasons for when in three years we’re in a worse position.

You mistake concept for practice, not understanding that to instigate any change, a disturbance must be introduced and managed.

We’ll see. This team, as it stands is at very best a playoff bubble team. And that’s relying on career years from players well past it and a PDO explosion. And it will be forever, unless the whole ethos changes.

JimmyV1965

Jethro Tull: We are in the same boat. Our opinions differ, that is all. But like many people, you work logic thus:

Someone doesn’t hold the same opinion as me.

I think their opinion is bad.

I know I’m a good person, so my opinion is good.

If Jethro’s is bad, ergo he is a bad person.

We ARE in the same boat. We both have more in common regarding the Oilers than not….

Your logic is spectacularly flawed. I actually agree with some of what you say, not all, but I choose to reserve judgement on the GM after only two months on the job. And I certainly wouldn’t think anyone is a bad person because their opinion differs from mine.

I may be wrong, but I think you’re referring to confirmation bias. This would work something like this:

I really don’t like the Holland hiring and my subconscious ego requires me to be right. Therefore, every move he makes will be judged through this lens. In my personal case, however, I didn’t like the Holland hiring, but I’m still trying to reserve judgement.

Scungilli Slushy

HT Joe: Well, that’s an ageist way to characterize an entire generation.

*EDIT* For the record, I’m facing the reality that I’m too old to consider myself a “young adult”.That having been said, I’ve met donkeys, superstars, lazeybones, good-for-nothings, and workaholics from every generation.

Since the days of Fred and Barney every generation has thought the next was was the end of civilization.

Each presents a new challenge. SAIEW. The key is adapting. SAIEW.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: What has Holland done during his time as an Oiler manager that resembles Chiarelli in any way?

Holland’s summer so far looks very much like Chiarelli’s summer last year.

OriginalPouzar

That could be a fun line.

Of course, I could also see it as a line that spends 85% of the time chasing in our own zone……

Bulging Twine

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I would be in favor of some combination of a Benson/Marody/Currie/Gambardella line. Rookies, but rookies that know each other well and will at least all be rowing in the same direction. Use them in a hybrid 3rd/4th line and see what they can do. Guarantee they will bring everything they have every night, no lack of effort issues there. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work but I think it is worth a try. They could surprise. And this is the year to try it for an extended stretch. It’s not as if this team is built to make a run deep into the playoffs.

I like this idea. Worth a shot. Instant chemistry.

Rube Foster

OriginalPouzar: The team is in need of some skill and secondary scoring on the wing.

If Puljujarvi can find his offensive game, as 20-22 year old prospect often do, it would be huge for the team this year and going forward.

Imagine adding a 0.85PPG winger in to the top 6.

No chance of that? Well, we all probably thought there was no chance Dylan Strome would become that player at the age of 21 – his struggles up to then had been in line with Jesse’s.

Adding a “free” top 6 or even middle 6 winger would indeed be big.

Bingo!

rickithebear

texmex: I think Kenny Holland is slowly learning how difficult it is to recruit players to come to Edmonton, or how much they Oilers have to pay above market value for players. He probably bought Rej out thinking he’d be able to get one of the talked about UFA’s to come to Oil Country. He probably thought he had Connolly/Gus/whoever signed sealed and delivered only to find out on July 1st (one day after the BO window closed) that not to be the case.

Just my opinion.

Speed? Or Quickness?
Size? Or Toughness – fighting or penetration?
Skill? Or pocession efficient?

Quickness is what is required in todays game.
Quick Transition passing for zonal exits & entry.
Foot quickness for offensive & defensive positioning in high danger area.

Toughness?
7-10 Years ago on HF boards. I defined tough as Flin Flon Bomber tough.
Not fighting!
But penetration of high danger area.
Argued Eberle was one of the toughest players in the game cause of his HD area penetration rate.
Argued each player established their own expected shot density ( a common numbers was idiotic)
Noticed it was proportional to % of HD penetration shots.

Pocession efficiency is critical.
Noticed in a lot of pocessions in O zone.
Often not many high danger scorable (Open) shots occurred.
That direct open/high danger shooting skills goal per pocession rate was 50+ superior to goals from
Passes. The more passes the less efficient.

Wanting a lot of great passers with low goal masses while noble is a misguided approach.

When I looked at your list.
I saw Caggulia. Smaller, board efficient, goal mass forward.
Now 8 even goals is top 62 for either winger position.
182gm 25 even goals
61gm 8.333 evg player.
The kid generates top 2 line winger goal production in the game phase ( even) that is 80% of The games TOI.

Chiarelli was really good at diminishing assets.
Mact’s Pit pick identified for Barzal.
Mact’s Col UFA acquisition Caggulia who established top 6 winger even goal production.
Puljujarvi a top 50 evg RW in his 19 year old season in a 3 rd line role.

Right away we see Holland is acquirung/ retaining top 4 winger (8-10evg) history ufa fwds.
Chaisson
Granlund
Jurco

We have forwards who have achieved 1+ seasons of first line winger (14-16 evg) & center (17-18 evg) production Depending on the season.
Mcdavid
RNH
Draisaitl
Chaisson
Kassian
Granlund

I looked at evg (2-4yr) averages of the top 12 evg producing forwards on the 6 of 7 pacific teams last night. Had not looked at LAK.
Some only had 11 of 12 players with established history.
The results
EDM 11 fwds 148 or 160 evg depends on wether Draisaitl is a 18 or 30 evg player moving forward.
CGY 11 fwds 148 evg
VCR 12 fwds 145 evg Ferland on roster.
SJS 11 fwds 143 evg with Marleau & Thornton
ANA 12 fwds 139 evg
ARZ 12 fwds 138 evg Kessel on roster.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Bulging Twine,

– Thanks for sharing this

– I reminded me of one of my friends : cup winner pretty famous in the 80s.

– I asked him once why he dosent play hockey now. He says he does for shits and giggles in alumni stuff and does one fantasy charity event a year they he hates but it’s a good cause and people pay a lot to draft him so he feels obliged. but about 10 years after he was out of the league he joined a team with some of his high school buddies: he hated it for the same reason he hates the fantasy charity thing. I asked why he said :” because there was always a few guys out there who thought they had something to prove and rough me up when I was goin for the puck and just trying too hard thinking this was there chance to prove themselves : tell everyone hey I gave this NHLer the business. And these guys are so shit all I want to do is have a skate and have fun. “

– sounds like the giant you played and now our scout had a good attitude.

Ribs

Bulging Twine,

Love it!

Jethro Tull

JimmyV1965: Please don’t put me in the same boat as Jethro. I have little issue with Holland’s performance to date. However, I think it’s incumbent upon him to add even just one good player by the start of the season. He’s been dealt a seven and two for sure, but a competent GM should be able to add one good player. It’s not a big ask.

We are in the same boat. Our opinions differ, that is all. But like many people, you work logic thus:

Someone doesn’t hold the same opinion as me.

I think their opinion is bad.

I know I’m a good person, so my opinion is good.

If Jethro’s is bad, ergo he is a bad person.

We ARE in the same boat. We both have more in common regarding the Oilers than not….

Darth Tu

Darth Tu:
OriginalPouzar,

This is excellent. I’m glad that you’re alive to tell this story – could have had a very, very different ending.

Weird I meant to reply to Bulging Twine, but it seems the page freaked out and tagged OP….

I’m glad you’re alive too OP!

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: Please don’t put me in the same boat as Jethro. I have little issue with Holland’s performance to date. However, I think it’s incumbent upon him to add even just one good player by the start of the season. He’s been dealt a seven and two for sure, but a competent GM should be able to add one good player. It’s not a big ask.

I am not and I apologize if my post indicated as such.

I have lots of time for your reasoned opinion on Holland – I do think you will be disapointed with your requirement for a top 6 forward/top 4 d-man for a pass – this year – next off-season, although cap will be somewhat limited still, there should be numerous ELC contracts on the roster and the hopeful more realistic ability to move out some contracts.

Darth Tu

OriginalPouzar,

This is excellent. I’m glad that you’re alive to tell this story – could have had a very, very different ending.

OriginalPouzar

ProfessorQ: I dont think you can do any of that except the initial trade with 50% retained. I’m not sure if you can stack it and retain another 50%? Would it count as 2 retained contracts? How many does Edmonton have already?

Zero I believe – and the team can retain on 3 at any given time.

Oh, and, yes, a contract can be retained on twice.

The Oilers can take on 50% of a contract and then retain 50% of the portion they acquired in a separate transaction.

Looked in to that in the past.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: How long will I wait? No idea. But it won’t be two months that’s for sure. My tune will change big time if Holland hasn’t added a top six forward or a top four dman by the start of the season. I won’t write him off completely by then, but I’ll basically be resigned to the fact that nothing has changed. The season starts in three months, which is actually longer than he’s been on the job now.

I think you are going to be disappointed as Holland has never ever stated he is going to acquire a top 6 scoring forward (but only appeased questions about finding “a 20 goal scorer) and has expressly stated he’s not looking to upgrade the defence this off-season. He has stated that his primary target right now, prior to the season is a 3C.

Given he’s been absolutely true to what’s he’s said about his off-season plans, I think it makes sense to take his words at face value.

Sure, if there is a Russell plus Bear plus a 2nd on the table for Ehlers, he’ll make the move (presumably and s/t Russell’s trade protection).

At the same time, even just grabbing a 3C and signing a few guys to PTOs would, in my mind, not signal “more of the same”.

The same would have included trading the 8th or Samorukov or various important future assets for Faulk or Spurgeon or a similar aged forward that is a year from UFA and needing big money/term for his decline years.

The same would have included giving Chiasson a NMC and probably another year of term.

The same would have included Simmonds (or similar) for 4 years.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Bulging Twine:
I have an Archie Henderson story.

For those who don’t know he was a goon in the AHL in the 80’s.If you were a goon in the AHL in the 80’s you were a tough sob.

Well, in the early 90’s, I had a coach that moved up with us from Midget through Jr and when we graduated Jr he found a men’s league to put us in.We had success as a group in Midget and Jr but it became clear early that we were no match for these men in this league.There were police teams and firefighter teams and these guys were solid, and so much stronger than us.We were a bunch of skinny 20 year olds.I remember the firefighter team especially took it to us.We were no match and as the season wore on we were losing our confidence and were clearly intimidated.

One game I show up late to the dressing room and start getting changed.I didn’t hear it all but our coach was going on about this one tough guy and how he’ll eat you up and don’t piss him off etc.I don’t know if I was having a bad day but it was making me super angry.Here we were a bunch of skinny scared kids going out to try to play and our frickin coach was instilling more fear and intimidation into the group.Why did he always do that, it was the last thing we needed!

I make it out in time to start the game, no warm up.I’m lined up against this giant with long gangly arms and a fighters nose.His shirt didn’t make it all the way to his gloves and it exposed his thick wrists.I remember his elbows.He had big elbows!I thought this must be the guy that coach was talking about!F the coach.

I am angry and I want to show the boys we don’t have to be scared and to prove to the coach we are more than he thinks we are.

The puck drops and I take my stick and push the giants skates out from behind.Anyone who’s had this happens knows that even if you have the stability of Kurt Browning you are going down.Down goes the giant, after doing the oh crap scramble.

The puck goes into their zone in my corner, I go after it and feel this ominous shadow chasing me.Luckily their defenceman got to it first and fired it down to our zone.I bust it back to our zone (I’d never backchecked so hard in my life) and eventually it ends up a face off in our zone.

I line up and here comes the giant, slashes my stick and is swearing threats.I’m still in F-U mode and now boosted by the knowledge that I’ve got to the giant.See boys!

The puck drops and swoosh I take out his legs again.Down goes the giant a second time.

Soon the puck goes over the glass and I quickly skate to the bench.

The giant skates by our bench towards his.I expect anger and swears or worse.Instead, without even looking at our bench, and without acknowledging any player, he calmly says to the coach, “coach, tell your players to settle down, someone is going to get hurt”.It wasn’t so much of a threat, it was more like a fatherly warning that you knew had truth behind it.

Coach yells to me incredulously, “what are you doing!Do you know who that is?!That’s Archie Henderson!He was a goon in the AHL”.I had missed that part in the pregame speech.I knew that he could literally kill me in a fight.

I calmed down after that and thankfully, he left me alone.
I almost died

That’s a great story and you told it well… glad you’re still alive to tell it.

OmJo

Bulging Twine,

Thanks for sharing that, didn’t end how I expected it would