All Summer Long

by Lowetide

In the days before Ken Holland, I outlined five important areas that needed to be addressed. At the time I assumed Keith Gretzky would take over a GM, and the order of the priorities was mine: Two scoring wingers, cap room, No. 3 center, top-4 RHD who can move the puck, and a backup goaltender.

We are approaching the end of the busy period of the 2019 offseason. Not all the work is done, hell many Oilers fans are waiting for a Milan Lucic-James Neal trade at this hour, a trade that may never come. Assuming he is done: How did Ken Holland do this summer?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • New Lowetide: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

Two Scoring Wingers

My preference was Brett Connolly, and he went for a reasonable dollar but the term (four years) was dear. Holland’s two big scoring additions were Alex Chiasson (22 goals) and Joakim Nygard (21 goals in 52 SHL games for Farjestad BK).

I think it’s fair to say Holland fell shy in this area. If he had signed Connolly, or dealt for James Neal, we could have argued reasonably that Holland addressed a major need. Even Neal & Chiasson would have received a passing grade from me. Holland had limited resources, so I don’t think you can set his summer on fire for the moves made, but it’s short of the goal. Holland may be factoring in Tyler Benson as an option and that’s (imo) reasonable.

Cap Room

Sekera buyout was a start but there’s miles to go. If Holland doesn’t use the cap dollars from Sekera that’s an unforced error. I would have given him a gold star if Holland had found a way out from under the Lucic contract.

No. 3 Centre

His acquisitions who could fill this role are Markus Granlund and Gaetan Haas. Haas is a complete wildcard, Granlund is more effective on the wing.

Top 4 RHD

Joel Persson was signed by Peter Chiarelli, Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear drafted by Bob Green. Incomplete. I do like the possibility of Kris Russell moving to LH side on third pair, but assuming that will happen is a leap of faith.

Backup Goalie

Mike Smith was the choice, it seemed destined once Dave Tippett was hired as coach. The math on this is poor, it’s a ‘gut feel’ acquisition and this is a math blog so there’s no defense the author will offer.

Can the system save the season?

Edmonton has enormous riches at the top, with McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge a good bet to score over over 100 goals (119 one year ago). The 2017-18 team received 90 goals from that trio and another 107 goals from the rest of the forward crew. Last season’s forwards (outside the top three) scored 80, and that includes 22 from Alex Chiasson and 15 from Zack Kassian.

Scoring wingers (Benson, Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Marody) could help, maybe one of the kid blue spikes in a big way. Maybe Ryan McLeod emerges as the No. 3 centre, and Shane Starrett finds Rod Serling and buys x-ray eyes.

Maybe the Oilers trade Lucic for Neal and the trade snaps the chain back into place. I still think Tippett was the biggest acquisition of the offseason. Holland’s other bets, the player bets, appear conservative and uninspired. He didn’t have a lot of room to wheel, and Connolly, as good as he is, can’t be heralded as a modern Hossa.

OILERS 50-MAN (50)

The Oilers have two slides, taking the roster to 48, and Jesse Puljujarvi, who regular readers will know is sitting in limbo with Jimmy Cliff. I’ve included Puljujarvi as usual, he comes off the 50-man the moment he signs in Europe or is traded.

What would I add to this group? A 20-goal winger and a 22-year old Evan Bouchard, plus a goalie now that Michael Parkatti is writing again.

JOSH ARCHIBALD

An intelligent signing. Archibald can help on the PK, scores well based on linemates and usage, and comes at a fair price. It’s important to value this player, even as he doesn’t address the team’s needs (No. 3 center and scoring winger). A contract signing of this kind brings roster clarity, and it’s more likely we see a Jesse Puljujarvi deal (imo) now that the RW depth chart is set. I see it as Kassian-Chiasson-Archibald-Gagner, your mileage may vary.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show today, TSN1260, beginning at 10 this morning. Bruce McCurdy will be by from The Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal to talk Archibald, Apollo 11 and other world events. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will pop in to talk about in-game betting the impact of a classic match like the men’s final at Wimbledon. Finally, Mark Zecchino will join us from Golf Talk Canada about The Open. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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CallighenMan

Harpers Hair: He missed 12 games last season.
Meh.

what is meh is your f’ing multiple personality disorder. Take it back to the island troll.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: 6 seasons, not counting the cups of coffee. And 22, 15 and 15 goals in the past three… 52 goals, and just 6 of them on the PP. He’s a much better bet for top-6 and scoring 15-20 than Chiasson is.

You used the fact that Chiasson has only had one plus goal scoring season out of 6 as an argument against him, however, at the same time, the fact that Connolly has had one season out of 8 with over 27 points isn’t a valid point when discussing his top 6 abilities? Really?

He’s had one season with over 27 points – he started in the league 8 years ago.

ArmchairGM

JimmyV1965:
I’m on the record as being disappointed with Holland SO FAR. I think I have a pretty decent, balanced opinion here.The difference between Chia and Holland is that Chia always gets his man – usually with an overpayment. If Chia were GM, Connolly would likely be an Oiler today, at $5 mill and four years. Maybe even five or six years.

Nobody here is pining for Chia, we want competent management who will improve the roster. We haven’t seen that yet. All we have seen is a bunch of high-risk, low-reward bets.

ArmchairGM

JimmyV1965: It’s fine to be disappointed with Holland, but you make it sound like we had an opportunity to sign Connolly for four years. That simply wasn’t the case. That, or you were hoping the GM started the negotiations with an overpayment.

We have no idea where he started and where he ended, or whether he even offered a contract. We simply don’t know… Dzingel, too. But the fact remains that Holland is being paid $5M to improve the team incrementally into a Cup contender, and his first offseason has the team apparently going backwards. Not good.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Brett Connolly: 8 years in the league, only one season with more than 27 points……

6 seasons, not counting the cups of coffee. And 22, 15 and 15 goals in the past three… 52 goals, and just 6 of them on the PP. He’s a much better bet for top-6 and scoring 15-20 than Chiasson is.

OriginalPouzar

Lucic for Neal is such a win for Calgary that I can’t imagine Treliving pulling that trigger unless there is a material material sweetener or serious retainmnet.

Yup, Jeal was pretty much as bad as Lucic was last year (well, offensively at least, I don’t know if Neal showed a complete inability to take a pass at the blueline from a d-man, pivot and move the puck up ice).

With that said, Neal fell off the cliff for one year whereas Lucic has been 4th line/replacement level at 5 on 5 for three straight years now. I would think that leads to a greater chance of a Neal bounce-back than a Lucic.

Then we get to the contracts and (1) Neal’s contract does not have any trade protection (the lack of a NMC takes away all expansion draft protection risk)_ and (2) Neal’s contract has zero signing bonuses so the buyout structure is normal – buyouts still suck but at least its not “buyout proof”.

London Jon

I would be happy to see Lucic for Neal.

What do we think gets that done?

Retain, say, 750k on Lucic?
Add a 2021 3rd?

What would you do it for if you were GM?

russ99

I’m not a fan of the Chiasson signing, since it’s doubtful he’ll score as many as last year, even if zoomed on PP1, but you have to look at market conditions in UFA.

He wasn’t going to take a discount as a UFA and Holland reading the market saw that comparable or better Day 1-3 UFA players were signing for twice as much in more competitive warm weather lower tax markets, so he had to get some goals.

Not optimal but better than Chia overpaying drastically, throwing in an NMC then expecting first rounders to step in and make up the difference.

With Holland’s preference to add in FA, I suspect this changes when we have more cap flexibility.

JimmyV1965

I’m on the record as being disappointed with Holland SO FAR. I think I have a pretty decent, balanced opinion here. The difference between Chia and Holland is that Chia always gets his man – usually with an overpayment. If Chia were GM, Connolly would likely be an Oiler today, at $5 mill and four years. Maybe even five or six years.

JimmyV1965

ArmchairGM: Safe I can get behind, quiet I can understand. But underwhelming is never a positive outcome. The team needs to move forward and there was no forward movement this summer.

I stated at the time that I would be willing to go up to $4M x 4 years. I believe Connolly would have been full value for that contract in Edmonton. And the signing would have been in place of Chiasson, so it’s not a $4M cap hit on top of what Holland has now.

It’s building blocks. Under Holland, the team appears to headed for a lottery finish. What makes you think any marquee UFA will be heading to Edmonton next summer? And do you really want to pay top dollar and term to one of the big name UFA’s anyway? There are several players available next summer that might be a better fit than Connolly, but they’re all aging and will want a retirement contract. Backstrom, Hall, Granlund,Hoffman, Kreider and Dadonov, for instance. And if any of these would take say $7M AAV we could fit them in anyhow, as long as the bottom-6 guys all make around $1M (which is normal).

It’s fine to be disappointed with Holland, but you make it sound like we had an opportunity to sign Connolly for four years. That simply wasn’t the case. That, or you were hoping the GM started the negotiations with an overpayment.

Cassandra

OriginalPouzar: How is Chiasson a top line winger when he scored 0.75 G/60 and 1.25P/60 and his top 3 linemates were Drai, McDavid and Nuge?

In Ricki’s parsing of the data it doesn’t matter what the guy does away from top line talent, it only matters what he does with them.

Also, in Ricki’s parsing of the data you have to compare LW to LW, C to C, and RW to RW. Which means that the line for 1st line is 8evg for wingers. Now, the dividing line for centers is 13 evg because it is “easier” for centers to score. Now, we both know this makes no sense and corresponds to hockey in no way, but this is a fact based analysis so you can’t disagree with it without being a social justice warrior.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Holland is making that bet too. I’m not convinced that its a smart one: six years in the league and only one season with over 13 goals. That spells anomaly, IMO.

Brett Connolly: 8 years in the league, only one season with more than 27 points……

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Is your position not “if Holland didn’t sign so many $1M bottom six players, they would have room for a $5M winger”?I believe those are essentially your exact words, no?

No, they are not.

ArmchairGM

who: You are wasting your breath.Doesn’t seem like Armchair GM can grasp the whole cap space thing.

Wow.

ArmchairGM

jp: Now, I don’t think Chiasson will be a regular 22 goal scorer, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised at 15-20 goals (I guess I’m expecting that actually).

Holland is making that bet too. I’m not convinced that its a smart one: six years in the league and only one season with over 13 goals. That spells anomaly, IMO.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Yes, the moves he did make were underwhelming – recall the general consensus (not unanimous) that an underwhelming July 1 was likely the smartest way forward.

Safe I can get behind, quiet I can understand. But underwhelming is never a positive outcome. The team needs to move forward and there was no forward movement this summer.

OriginalPouzar: There were some reasonable suggestions – the (your) Connolly suggestion was indeed reasonable and we do know that Holland was in fact in on that player. Would you have been willing to give more term and/or hit to get him to Edmonton? I know your research shows he should be able to produce at as a top 6 player but, of course, he’s yet to establish himself in that role and the numbers don’t always win out.

I stated at the time that I would be willing to go up to $4M x 4 years. I believe Connolly would have been full value for that contract in Edmonton. And the signing would have been in place of Chiasson, so it’s not a $4M cap hit on top of what Holland has now.

OriginalPouzar:Don’t get me wrong, he would have made the team better this year but, as I’ve been stating, at the same time that’s $4M (give or take) not available next year to acquire a more substantial player.Connolly is not a slam dunk established top 6 player – the bet would have been reasonable but it would have been a marginal signing that worked to preclude a more substantial signing in the next few years where they’ll be better set up to take advantage of the market and cash strapped teams.

It’s building blocks. Under Holland, the team appears to headed for a lottery finish. What makes you think any marquee UFA will be heading to Edmonton next summer? And do you really want to pay top dollar and term to one of the big name UFA’s anyway? There are several players available next summer that might be a better fit than Connolly, but they’re all aging and will want a retirement contract. Backstrom, Hall, Granlund, Hoffman, Kreider and Dadonov, for instance. And if any of these would take say $7M AAV we could fit them in anyhow, as long as the bottom-6 guys all make around $1M (which is normal).

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: See, you keep putting words in my mouth and then beating the straw man. You must be a lawyer!

Is your position not “if Holland didn’t sign so many $1M bottom six players, they would have room for a $5M winger”? I believe those are essentially your exact words, no?

OriginalPouzar

rickithebear: He is not a top 6 .
1st line with top 1st line players or 3rd/4th production with 2nd -4th players.
Backlund was a 1st line evg production center with Calgary one year. Ferland benefit playing with this type of player.

How is Chiasson a top line winger when he scored 0.75 G/60 and 1.25P/60 and his top 3 linemates were Drai, McDavid and Nuge?

OriginalPouzar

jp: Could be. He sure looked good in camp.

But Stoll scored 75 points in his draft year (similar to McLeod). Then followed it up with 105 in draft +1 and 66 in 47 games in draft +2. Pretty big gap in the boxcars.

He did look good at camp last year but most higher end prospects do look good in camp, especially with size and speed – we’ve seen what it means vis-a-vis NHL readiness, very little (see Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, etc.

McLeod is a very solid prospect – his offence stagnated a bit this year which was disappointing but he did have a plus playoffs.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he needs a couple full years in the AHL but we’ll see.

I agree with the depth chart and analysis above re: the AHL – very good write up and thank you.

OriginalPouzar

jp: It’s true, it was early to make the call that Koskinen is a starter, though the KHL/international track record does count for something.

I was trying to give context for what $4.5M buys you – a below average starter. At years end the deal actually does look reasonable when you compare around the league. So maybe it was an opportunity missed, though i’m not sure how much less you’d reasonably expect him to sign for.

As weird as it sounds, Koskinen could very well end up being a value deal. All he needs to do to cover the bet is repeat what he did, and I think it’s more likely he’s better than .906 next season than worse honestly.

The overpays do add up, but the TBay analogy was a bit much.

And on Anderson, he was 36 when he signed that 2 X $4.75 deal, so the 10 yrs evidence wasn’t really helping him at that point. He’s posted .898 and .903 FWIW.

I don’t think I can agree on this premise.

There have been a multitude of goalie sign for way less money and term than Koskinen and Koskinen has no better track record or established history of success than most of them.

Kinkaid was brought up. Yes, Kinkaid struggled last year but he’s at least had a few years where he has put up solid NHL numbers, including a 40 plus apperance season. He’s younger than Koskinen and signed for a third of the cap hit and one less year.

He is no less of a bet than Mikko and MUCH cheaper with less commitment.

hunter1909

From reading the comments it’s plain to see we’re all in for another classic Deathmarch™ for next season.

The only problem is: the website is wondering whether or not there’s any call for a message board for you wonderful fiends…err…fans.

Do let us know before too long…these things seem to take forever to arrange.

Thank you all from the DeathMarch™ taem…err…team.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Subtract out 4 $1M bottom sixers – you feel that opens up cap space – we would have had cap space for a substantial forward

See, you keep putting words in my mouth and then beating the straw man. You must be a lawyer!

rickithebear

jp:

No one called Ferland a 1st liner. You were the first to mention it. There was no constructed narrative.

People implied they would take him.
He only generates 1st line results with top 1 st line forwards.
Does not generate 2nd line results with lesser than 1st line.
He generates 3rd/4th line evg numbers with2nd/3rd line forwards.
No one is going to take him for 3rd/4th line production for 3.5M

They “would take him”
there can only be one reason.
What Calgary, CAR, & VCR are thinking
He is a physical winger to play with elite young less physical fwds.
We already have that.
For much less.

Not a direct statement.
But data can only justify one thought for wanting him.

JP: using the term constructive narative.
Is what I use when a fact based analysis comes up with results counter to repetative Opinion.

jp

rickithebear: He is not a top 6 .
1st line with top 1st line players or 3rd/4th production with 2nd -4th players.
Backlund was a 1st line evg production center with Calgary one year. Ferland benefit playing with this type of player.

Yes, I got that from your post and fair enough. I was just responding to this:

rickithebear:

Calling Ferland a 1st liner is an interesting constructed narative.
He is only a 1st liner with top 15 for position fwds.

No one called Ferland a 1st liner. You were the first to mention it. There was no constructed narrative.

rickithebear

jp:
rickithebear,

Good to know.

I don’t think any post mentioned Ferland and 1st line though. Top 6 was mentioned repeatedly, but not 1st line.

He is not a top 6 .
1st line with top 1st line players or 3rd/4th production with 2nd -4th players.
Backlund was a 1st line evg production center with Calgary one year. Ferland benefit playing with this type of player.

jp

rickithebear,

Good to know.

I don’t think any post mentioned Ferland and 1st line though. Top 6 was mentioned repeatedly, but not 1st line.

rickithebear

Ferland with similiar EVTOI Center & wings he played with on CGY & CAR.
Monohan/ Gaudreau 1086:55 19 evg
Aho/Teravainen 450:43 9.5 evg
Stajan/ Bennett 236:35 1 evg
Wallmark/Staal 185:41 1.5 evg

When we look at three years of Ferland.
Playing with top 15 players at their position on his line, he scores like a first line winger.
Playing with 2nd/3rd line players he scores like a 3rd/4th line winger at even.
Numbers Per Nat stat trick:
This is why I never wanted to look at Ferland as a choice.
You want your first line pair to play with the other player who they best achieve evg results with.

We already have players who can generate 1st evg rates when playing with top 1st line players
The first 2 generate the most evg/60 as a line with Drai/ Mcdavid
Chaisson
Kassian
Granlund
And
Players who have generated top 4 fwd evg winger rates with 2nd/3rd line teamates.
Chaisson
Kassian
Granlund.
Archibald
Gagner
Why on earth based on real level of teamates data, would we even consider Ferland.

That was the first thing I ask when looking at players dating back 12 years
What does:
First when a. My manual data, was only available
then when b. Hockey stats analysis, became available
Final only c. Nat stat trick, is available
say about a player when they are not playing with the first line for that year.

Ferland was an ideal choice for wing in Vancouvers, Calgary’s, & Carolina’s need
A physical forward with very non physical 1st line forward pair.

Calling Ferland a 1st liner is an interesting constructed narative.
He is only a 1st liner with top 15 for position fwds.

It is not what we needed.
We had required 2nd line 8-9 evg scoring from our bottom 3 forward line wingers rather than the 5.5evg we got.
2-4 of them will likely benefiting from 1st line winger scoring rates playing with Draisaitl & Mcdavid.

jp

Reja: Could this be ourhidden gem where his pro game translates better then his junior game. He reminds me of Jarret Stoll for some unexplained reason.

Could be. He sure looked good in camp.

But Stoll scored 75 points in his draft year (similar to McLeod). Then followed it up with 105 in draft +1 and 66 in 47 games in draft +2. Pretty big gap in the boxcars.

Reja

jp: You didn’t ask me but…

Bakersfield should be stacked this year. The depth chart will look something like:
Benson-Marody-Yamamoto
Gambardella-Malone-Russell
Maksimov-McLeod-Currie
Peluso-Esposito-Hebig
Vesey-Stukel-Safin

(and the D for fun)
Lagesson-Bear
Lowe-Bouchard
Samorukov-Day
Kulevich-Desharnais

Starrett-Skinner/Wells

This is leaving space for some injuries (15 NHL forwards and 8 defense slot above the players shown here). So some of Cave, Brodziak, Nygard, Jurco, Jones, Persson could be added to the group. I think it’s highly likely the Oilers sign a UFA C (Sheahan, Boyle, Brassard, Lindberg), so pretty good chance Brodziak/Cave get bumped down.

Even with all those guys not available to the Condors it’s not a given that McLeod will be 3C, though there’s a good chance. The Condors should be really good (if not the Oilers )

About his faceoffs, I don’t know, but I think I remember reading that his OHL coach used him for all the important draws on PP, PK and late in games. So that’s a good sign I guess.

Could this be our hidden gem where his pro game translates better then his junior game. He reminds me of Jarret Stoll for some unexplained reason.

jp

Reja: Off topic. Very little talk of McLeod. What line do you see him Centring in Bakersfield the 3rd and any idea what his faceoff pct is.

You didn’t ask me but…

Bakersfield should be stacked this year. The depth chart will look something like:
Benson-Marody-Yamamoto
Gambardella-Malone-Russell
Maksimov-McLeod-Currie
Peluso-Esposito-Hebig
Vesey-Stukel-Safin

(and the D for fun)
Lagesson-Bear
Lowe-Bouchard
Samorukov-Day
Kulevich-Desharnais

Starrett-Skinner/Wells

This is leaving space for some injuries (15 NHL forwards and 8 defense slot above the players shown here). So some of Cave, Brodziak, Nygard, Jurco, Jones, Persson could be added to the group. I think it’s highly likely the Oilers sign a UFA C (Sheahan, Boyle, Brassard, Lindberg), so pretty good chance Brodziak/Cave get bumped down.

Even with all those guys not available to the Condors it’s not a given that McLeod will be 3C, though there’s a good chance. The Condors should be really good (if not the Oilers 🙂 )

About his faceoffs, I don’t know, but I think I remember reading that his OHL coach used him for all the important draws on PP, PK and late in games. So that’s a good sign I guess.

Primetime

jp,

Good arguments…

who

London Jon: He has no cap space because PC wasted it all.

Holland has used up almost no cap space as the only space he has spent has been on the $$$ to Chiasson, Smith and Khaira above 1m. All of the other signings can be buried in the AHL or returned to Europe with no cap impact.

Gambardella/Currie in the NHL, basically same cap hit
Nygard/Haas in the NHL, basically same cap hit
Granlund/Archibald in the NHL, basically same cap hit

Play with cap friendly and take those players in and out.

THESE SIGNINGS DO NOT TAKE UP ANY OF THE CAP IF THEY DONT WORK OUT!!!!

You are wasting your breath. Doesn’t seem like Armchair GM can grasp the whole cap space thing.

jp

Harpers Hair: Chiasson and Granlundequal Ferlands cap hit.
I would take Ferland in a heartbeat.

Fair enough.

jp

Primetime: Hey JP,

That’s kind of my point thought.“IF what we’ve seen is what Koskinen is”…that’s it…we have no idea.The contract was signed after a minuscule amount of games/evidence, yet he got paid.It makes no sense.

Anderson has that contract after more than 10 years of evidence of what he can bring.

And yes, this contract alone is not what separates the Oil and Tampa, but all of these overpays add up.Regardless of whether he lives up to the pay or not, the chance to get a bargain was there and was passed by

It’s true, it was early to make the call that Koskinen is a starter, though the KHL/international track record does count for something.

I was trying to give context for what $4.5M buys you – a below average starter. At years end the deal actually does look reasonable when you compare around the league. So maybe it was an opportunity missed, though i’m not sure how much less you’d reasonably expect him to sign for.

As weird as it sounds, Koskinen could very well end up being a value deal. All he needs to do to cover the bet is repeat what he did, and I think it’s more likely he’s better than .906 next season than worse honestly.

The overpays do add up, but the TBay analogy was a bit much.

And on Anderson, he was 36 when he signed that 2 X $4.75 deal, so the 10 yrs evidence wasn’t really helping him at that point. He’s posted .898 and .903 FWIW.

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: Chiasson and Granlundequal Ferlands cap hit.
I would take Ferland in a heartbeat.

Term is important, almost as important as AAV.

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: Thing is…the cap issues faced by other teams in the next few years is a moving target,.
What you see now is not what you get.

I am highly confident that next off-season will be just like this off-season – many teams needing to divest.

Holland agreed and said so expressly on July 1 and spoke to it being the Oilers turn in the future.

Maybe he proves wrong but I think he has a pretty good read on it.

leadfarmer

Only in DSF world would 1 player be a replacement for two players

Primetime

Harpers Hair: Thing is…the cap issues faced by other teams in the next few years is a moving target,.
What you see now is not what you get.

But it is for the Oilers?

Harpers Hair

jp: Ferland 71-17-23-40
Chiasson 73-22-16-38

Ferland 4x$3.5M
Chiasson 2×2.15M

Now, I don’t think Chiasson will be a regular 22 goal scorer, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised at 15-20 goals (I guess I’m expecting that actually).

Even aside from the injury concern with Ferland, is the difference worth 60% more salary plus 2 extra years? I guess you do

Chiasson and Granlund equal Ferlands cap hit.
I would take Ferland in a heartbeat.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Yes, those three will never be (although 22 goals is 22 goals whether zoomed on the PP and not at 5 on 5 or not) and Ferland is, however, Ferland is a marginal top 6 winger with concussion history that could/has stopped him from playing the type of game that has brought him success.

I don’t want to commit $3.5M over the next four years to Ferland when that likely ihibits the ability to acquire a more substantial winger.

Nyquist, Connolly, Dzingel, Ferland, Johaonsson, etc. – yes, all these players would help the Oilers this year but their contracts would serve to make it tougher to take advantage of cap issue teams in the next few years. Cap space becomes more available over the next few years but they still will not be swimming in it – there are only so many bullets and this year’s crop of 2nd tier forwards (i.e. below the Panarin level) was extremely marginal.

Those are not the players I want the GM to over pay and commit to in free agency acknowledging what that means for this year but looking towards the ultimate goal.

Thing is…the cap issues faced by other teams in the next few years is a moving target,.
What you see now is not what you get.

Side

godot10: Something wrong in there.

In two years, LA still have

Kopitar $10 million
Doughty $11 million
Phaneuf $1 million
Quick $6 million
Brown $6 million
Carter $5 millioin

Or $37 million for 5 players.

and around $50 million to sign 18 players. less than $3 million per player.

Shouldn’t it be $39 million and not $37 million?

Edit: nevermind. I see you mention 5 players but listed 6

OriginalPouzar

Oilman: Trades for draft picks, and or prospects can be made, so a $3.5M contract can be off loaded.

So you want to be in the position that we were in this off-season, needing to divest of cap in order to make any acquisition? That’s exactly what we don’t want.

We saw this off-season how much cap space can cost.

What if Ferland gets a fourth concussion, think its easy to divest?

That plan leads us back to exactly where we have been this off-season – and for a marginal top 6 guy.

jp

Harpers Hair: Good grief.
Michael Ferland is a top six winger all day long and signed for $3.5 million in Vancouver.
Would you prefer Chiasson and Granlund .

Ferland 71-17-23-40
Chiasson 73-22-16-38

Ferland 4x$3.5M
Chiasson 2×2.15M

Now, I don’t think Chiasson will be a regular 22 goal scorer, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised at 15-20 goals (I guess I’m expecting that actually).

Even aside from the injury concern with Ferland, is the difference worth 60% more salary plus 2 extra years? I guess you do.

Primetime

jp:

The #19 cap hit this year and last is Craig Anderson at $4.75M. So Koskinen is #20.

If what we’ve seen is what Koskinen is, he’s paid fairly.

Hey JP,

That’s kind of my point though. “IF what we’ve seen is what Koskinen is”…that’s it…we have no idea. The contract was signed after a minuscule amount of games/evidence, yet he got paid. It makes no sense.

Anderson has that contract after more than 10 years of evidence of what he can bring.

And yes, this contract alone is not what separates the Oil and Tampa, but all of these overpays add up. Regardless of whether he lives up to the pay or not, the chance to get a bargain was there and was passed by

OriginalPouzar

Woogie: Would you rather place your bet Kinkaid and Smith on show me deals?

In spring 2019, Koskinen is as good bet as 85% of the known options.He knew it as well, I am sure that was helped the inducements.I think the Oilers had just finished their pro scouting meetings before this deal was cut, so they had a full view of the field.

I don’t agree that he’s as good a bet as 85% of the known options.

Yes, I’d rather have Kinkaid at 2 X $1.75M than Koskinen at 3 X $4.5M – its a no-brainer,

Kinkaid has at least had some success in the NHL and is actually younger than Mikko.

Without Mikko at $4.5M, Holland likely would have been fully in the conversation for guys like Lehner, Mrazek, etc. If they were able to get a more established option then they could have bet on Starrett as the back up as well and save some more cash.

jp

Bulging Twine:
Holland is a planner.He plan’s years in advance.His hallmark is organizational stability.If your hallmark is organizational stability you have to plan ahead.

Thanks for this.

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: Ferland is a top 6 forward NOW.
Granlund, Gagnerand Chiasson will never be.
What exactly are you waiting for?

Yes, those three will never be (although 22 goals is 22 goals whether zoomed on the PP and not at 5 on 5 or not) and Ferland is, however, Ferland is a marginal top 6 winger with concussion history that could/has stopped him from playing the type of game that has brought him success.

I don’t want to commit $3.5M over the next four years to Ferland when that likely ihibits the ability to acquire a more substantial winger.

Nyquist, Connolly, Dzingel, Ferland, Johaonsson, etc. – yes, all these players would help the Oilers this year but their contracts would serve to make it tougher to take advantage of cap issue teams in the next few years. Cap space becomes more available over the next few years but they still will not be swimming in it – there are only so many bullets and this year’s crop of 2nd tier forwards (i.e. below the Panarin level) was extremely marginal.

Those are not the players I want the GM to over pay and commit to in free agency acknowledging what that means for this year but looking towards the ultimate goal.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: But they weren’t, necessarily. Other GM’s made some of these moves, and sometimes for less cost than we thought they would be. Maybe Holland tried to make these moves too – we don’t know what we don’t know – but the fact is he wasn’t able to execute anything that moves the team forward. Which is what he gets $5M annually to do. The moves that he DID make are underwhelming and highly unlikely to move the team forward as well.

Yes, the moves he did make were underwhelming – recall the general consensus (not unanimous) that an underwhelming July 1 was likely the smartest way forward.

There were some reasonable suggestions – the (your) Connolly suggestion was indeed reasonable and we do know that Holland was in fact in on that player. Would you have been willing to give more term and/or hit to get him to Edmonton? I know your research shows he should be able to produce at as a top 6 player but, of course, he’s yet to establish himself in that role and the numbers don’t always win out.

Don’t get me wrong, he would have made the team better this year but, as I’ve been stating, at the same time that’s $4M (give or take) not available next year to acquire a more substantial player. Connolly is not a slam dunk established top 6 player – the bet would have been reasonable but it would have been a marginal signing that worked to preclude a more substantial signing in the next few years where they’ll be better set up to take advantage of the market and cash strapped teams.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: No it doesn’t.
For example, in two years the Los Angeles Kinga will have $72 million in cap space.the Canucks will have $46 million.
The Anaheim Ducks will have $35 million.
The league doesn’t sit and wait for the Oilers to get their shit together.

Yes but you are naturally moving the goal posts
Yes the basement dwellers will have cap
With what the young players are getting paid a lot of that money will be spent internally for example you didn’t include the 20 mil for Boeser and Pettersson in your calculations
But most competitive teams are and will be capped out.

Also who left the door open and let DSF back in